Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of gastric and the upper aerodigestive tract cancers in a pooled European cohort: The ELAPSE project

Air pollution has been shown to significantly impact human health including cancer. Gastric and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers are common and increased risk has been associated with smoking and occupational exposures. However, the association with air pollution remains unclear. We pooled European subcohorts (N = 287,576 participants for gastric and N = 297,406 for UADT analyses) and investigated the association between residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone in the warm season (O3w) with gastric and UADT cancer. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. During 5,305,133 and 5,434,843 person-years, 872 gastric and 1139 UADT incident cancer cases were observed, respectively. For gastric cancer, we found no association with PM2.5, NO2 and BC while for UADT the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.33) per 5 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, 1.19 (1.08-1.30) per 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2, 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 0.5 × 10-5 m-1 increase in BC and 0.81 (0.72-0.92) per 10 μg/m3 increase in O3w. We found no association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of gastric cancer, while for long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2 and BC increased incidence of UADT cancer was observed.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and chronic kidney disease-associated mortality - results from the pooled cohort of the European multicentre ELAPSE-study

Despite the known link between air pollution and cause-specific mortality, its relation to chronic kidney disease (CKD)-associated mortality is understudied. Therefore, we investigated the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and CKD-related mortality in a large multicentre population-based European cohort. Cohort data were linked to local mortality registry data. CKD-death was defined as ICD10 codes N18-N19 or corresponding ICD9 codes. Mean annual exposure at participant's home address was determined with fine spatial resolution exposure models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3), particulate matter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5) and several elemental constituents of PM2.5. Cox regression models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, calendar year of recruitment, smoking status, marital status, employment status and neighbourhood mean income. Over a mean follow-up time of 20.4 years, 313 of 289 564 persons died from CKD. Associations were positive for PM2.5 (hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.31 (1.03-1.66) per 5μg/m3, BC (1.26 (1.03-1.53) per 0.5×10- 5/m), NO2 (1.13 (0.93-1.38) per 10μg/m3) and inverse for O3 (0.71 (0.54-0.93) per 10μg/m3). Results were robust to further covariate adjustment. Exclusion of the largest sub-cohort contributing 226 cases, led to null associations. Among the elemental constituents, Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S and Zn, representing different sources including traffic, biomass and oil burning and secondary pollutants, were associated with CKD-related mortality. In conclusion, our results suggest an association between air pollution from different sources and CKD-related mortality.

Sex-specific associations of environmental exposures with prevalent diabetes and obesity - Results from the KORA Fit study

Promising evidence suggests a link between environmental factors, particularly air pollution, and diabetes and obesity. However, it is still unclear whether men and women are equally susceptible to environmental exposures. Therefore, we aimed to assess sex-specific long-term effects of environmental exposures on metabolic diseases. We analyzed cross-sectional data from 3,034 participants (53.7% female, aged 53-74 years) from the KORA Fit study (2018/19), a German population-based cohort. Environmental exposures, including annual averages of air pollutants [nitrogen oxides (NO2, NOx), ozone, particulate matter of different diameters (PM10, PMcoarse, PM2.5), PM2.5abs, particle number concentration], air temperature and surrounding greenness, were assessed at participants' residences. We evaluated sex-specific associations of environmental exposures with prevalent diabetes, obesity, body-mass-index (BMI) and waist circumference using logistic or linear regression models with an interaction term for sex, adjusted for age, lifestyle factors and education. Further effect modification, in particular by urbanization, was assessed in sex-stratified analyses. Higher annual averages of air pollution, air temperature and greenness at residence were associated with diabetes prevalence in men (NO2: Odds Ratio (OR) per interquartile range increase in exposure: 1.49 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13, 1.95], air temperature: OR: 1.48 [95%-CI: 1.15, 1.90]; greenness: OR: 0.78 [95%-CI: 0.59, 1.01]) but not in women. Conversely, higher levels of air pollution, temperature and lack of greenness were associated with lower obesity prevalence and BMI in women. After including an interaction term for urbanization, only higher greenness was associated with higher BMI in rural women, whereas higher air pollution was associated with higher BMI in urban men. To conclude, we observed sex-specific associations of environmental exposures with metabolic diseases. An additional interaction between environmental exposures and urbanization on obesity suggests a higher susceptibility to air pollution among urban men, and higher susceptibility to greenness among rural women, which needs corroboration in future studies.

Air pollution, traffic noise, greenness, and temperature and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes: Results from the KORA cohort study

Introduction

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major public health concern, and various environmental factors have been associated with the development of this disease. This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal effects of multiple environmental exposures on the risk of incident T2D in a German population-based cohort.

Methods

We used data from the KORA cohort study (Augsburg, Germany) and assessed exposure to air pollutants, traffic noise, greenness, and temperature at the participants' residencies. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze the associations with incident T2D, adjusting for potential confounders.

Results

Of 7736 participants included in the analyses, 10.5% developed T2D during follow-up (mean: 15.0 years). We found weak or no association between environmental factors and the risk of T2D, with sex and education level significantly modifying the effects of air pollutants.

Conclusion

Our study contributes to the growing body of literature investigating the impact of environmental factors on T2D risks and suggests that the impact of environmental factors may be small.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Long-term exposure to several constituents and sources of PM2.5 is associated with incidence of upper aerodigestive tract cancers but not gastric cancer: Results from the large pooled European cohort of the ELAPSE project

It is unclear whether cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) and gastric cancer are related to air pollution, due to few studies with inconsistent results. The effects of particulate matter (PM) may vary across locations due to different source contributions and related PM compositions, and it is not clear which PM constituents/sources are most relevant from a consideration of overall mass concentration alone. We therefore investigated the association of UADT and gastric cancers with PM2.5 elemental constituents and sources components indicative of different sources within a large multicentre population based epidemiological study. Cohorts with at least 10 cases per cohort led to ten and eight cohorts from five countries contributing to UADT- and gastric cancer analysis, respectively. Outcome ascertainment was based on cancer registry data or data of comparable quality. We assigned home address exposure to eight elemental constituents (Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S, Si, V and Zn) estimated from Europe-wide exposure models, and five source components identified by absolute principal component analysis (APCA). Cox regression models were run with age as time scale, stratified for sex and cohort and adjusted for relevant individual and neighbourhood level confounders. We observed 1139 UADT and 872 gastric cancer cases during a mean follow-up of 18.3 and 18.5 years, respectively. UADT cancer incidence was associated with all constituents except K in single element analyses. After adjustment for NO2, only Ni and V remained associated with UADT. Residual oil combustion and traffic source components were associated with UADT cancer persisting in the multiple source model. No associations were found for any of the elements or source components and gastric cancer incidence. Our results indicate an association of several PM constituents indicative of different sources with UADT but not gastric cancer incidence with the most robust evidence for traffic and residual oil combustion.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and inflammatory response in the KORA study

Previous studies consistently showed an association between fine atmospheric particulate matter (PM2.5) and cardiovascular diseases. Concerns about adverse health effects of ultrafine particles (UFP) are growing but long-term studies are still scarce. In this study, we examined the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollutants and blood biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation, including fibrinogen, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), serum amyloid A (SAA) adiponectin and interleukin-6 (IL-6), measured in the German KORA-S4 cohort study (1999-2001). IL-6 was available for older participants only, who were therefore considered as a subsample. Annual mean concentrations of UFP (as particle number concentration), particulate matter in different particles sizes (PM10, PMcoarse, PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance), ozone (O3), and nitrogen oxides (NO2, NOX) were estimated by land-use regression models and assigned to participants' home addresses. We performed a multiple linear regression between each pollutant and each biomarker with adjustment for confounders. Per 1 interquartile range (IQR, 1945 particles/cm3) increase of UFP, fibrinogen increased by 0.70 % (0.04; 1.37) and hs-CRP increased by 3.16 % (-0.52; 6.98). Adiponectin decreased by -2.53 % (-4.78; -0.24) per 1 IQR (1.4 μg/m3) increase of PM2.5. Besides, PM2.5 was associated with increased IL-6 in the subsample. In conclusion, we observed that long-term exposure to air pollutants, including both fine and ultrafine particles, was associated with higher concentrations of pro-inflammatory and lower concentrations of an anti-inflammatory blood biomarkers, which is consistent with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease observed for long-term exposure to air pollutants.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of leukemia and lymphoma in a pooled European cohort

Leukemia and lymphoma are the two most common forms of hematologic malignancy, and their etiology is largely unknown. Pathophysiological mechanisms suggest a possible association with air pollution, but little empirical evidence is available. We aimed to investigate the association between long-term residential exposure to outdoor air pollution and risk of leukemia and lymphoma. We pooled data from four cohorts from three European countries as part of the "Effects of Low-level Air Pollution: a Study in Europe" (ELAPSE) collaboration. We used Europe-wide land use regression models to assess annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) at residences. We also estimated concentrations of PM2.5 elemental components: copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn); sulfur (S); nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si) and potassium (K). We applied Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the associations. Among the study population of 247,436 individuals, 760 leukemia and 1122 lymphoma cases were diagnosed during 4,656,140 person-years of follow-up. The results showed a leukemia hazard ratio (HR) of 1.13 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.01-1.26) per 10 μg/m3 NO2, which was robust in two-pollutant models and consistent across the four cohorts and according to smoking status. Sex-specific analyses suggested that this association was confined to the male population. Further, the results showed increased lymphoma HRs for PM2.5 (HR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.02-1.34) and potassium content of PM2.5, which were consistent in two-pollutant models and according to sex. Our results suggest that air pollution at the residence may be associated with adult leukemia and lymphoma.

Disentangling associations between multiple environmental exposures and all-cause mortality: an analysis of European administrative and traditional cohorts

Background

We evaluated the independent and joint effects of air pollution, land/built environment characteristics, and ambient temperature on all-cause mortality as part of the EXPANSE project.

Methods

We collected data from six administrative cohorts covering Catalonia, Greece, the Netherlands, Rome, Sweden, and Switzerland and three traditional cohorts in Sweden, the Netherlands, and Germany. Participants were linked to spatial exposure estimates derived from hybrid land use regression models and satellite data for: air pollution [fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3)], land/built environment [normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance to water, impervious surfaces], and ambient temperature (the mean and standard deviation of warm and cool season temperature). We applied Cox proportional hazard models accounting for several cohort-specific individual and area-level variables. We evaluated the associations through single and multiexposure models, and interactions between exposures. The joint effects were estimated using the cumulative risk index (CRI). Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR) were combined using random-effects meta-analyses.

Results

We observed over 3.1 million deaths out of approximately 204 million person-years. In administrative cohorts, increased exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and BC was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (pooled HRs: 1.054, 1.033, and 1.032, respectively). We observed an adverse effect of increased impervious surface and mean season-specific temperature, and a protective effect of increased O3, NDVI, distance to water, and temperature variation on all-cause mortality. The effects of PM2.5 were higher in areas with lower (10th percentile) compared to higher (90th percentile) NDVI levels [pooled HRs: 1.054 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.030-1.079) vs. 1.038 (95% CI 0.964-1.118)]. A similar pattern was observed for NO2. The CRI of air pollutants (PM2.5 or NO2) plus NDVI and mean warm season temperature resulted in a stronger effect compared to single-exposure HRs: [PM2.5 pooled HR: 1.061 (95% CI 1.021-1.102); NO2 pooled HR: 1.041 (95% CI 1.025-1.057)]. Non-significant effects of similar patterns were observed in traditional cohorts.

Discussion

The findings of our study not only support the independent effects of long-term exposure to air pollution and greenness, but also highlight the increased effect when interplaying with other environmental exposures.

Multiple myeloma risk in relation to long-term air pollution exposure - A pooled analysis of four European cohorts

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is a growing concern worldwide, with significant impacts on human health. Multiple myeloma is a type of blood cancer with increasing incidence. Studies have linked air pollution exposure to various types of cancer, including leukemia and lymphoma, however, the relationship with multiple myeloma incidence has not been extensively investigated.

METHODS

We pooled four European cohorts (N = 234,803) and assessed the association between residential exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particles (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and ozone (O3) and multiple myeloma. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level.

RESULTS

During 4,415,817 person-years of follow-up (average 18.8 years), we observed 404 cases of multiple myeloma. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 0.99 (0.84, 1.16) per 10 μg/m³ NO2, 1.04 (0.82, 1.33) per 5 μg/m³ PM2.5, 0.99 (0.84, 1.18) per 0.5 10-5 m-1 BCE, and 1.11 (0.87, 1.41) per 10 μg/m³ O3.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not observe an association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of multiple myeloma.

Improved daily estimates of relative humidity at high resolution across Germany: A random forest approach

The lack of readily available methods for estimating high-resolution near-surface relative humidity (RH) and the incapability of weather stations to fully capture the spatiotemporal variability can lead to exposure misclassification in studies of environmental epidemiology. We therefore aimed to predict German-wide 1 × 1 km daily mean RH during 2000-2021. RH observations, longitude and latitude, modelled air temperature, precipitation and wind speed as well as remote sensing information on topographic elevation, vegetation, and the true color band composite were incorporated in a Random Forest (RF) model, in addition to date for capturing the temporal variations of the response-explanatory variables relationship. The model achieved high accuracy (R2 = 0.83) and low errors (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.07%, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.19% and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) of - 0.53%), calculated via ten-fold cross-validation. A comparison of our RH predictions with measurements from a dense monitoring network in the city of Augsburg, South Germany confirmed the good performance (R2 ≥ 0.86, RMSE ≤ 5.45%, MAPE ≤ 5.59%, MPE ≤ 3.11%). The model displayed high German-wide RH (22y-average of 79.00%) and high spatial variability across the country, exceeding 12% on yearly averages. Our findings indicate that the proposed RF model is suitable for estimating RH for a whole country in high-resolution and provide a reliable RH dataset for epidemiological analyses and other environmental research purposes.

Long-Term Exposure to Low-Level PM2.5 and Mortality: Investigation of Heterogeneity by Harmonizing Analyses in Large Cohort Studies in Canada, United States, and Europe

BACKGROUND

Studies across the globe generally reported increased mortality risks associated with particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μ m (PM 2.5 ) exposure with large heterogeneity in the magnitude of reported associations and the shape of concentration-response functions (CRFs). We aimed to evaluate the impact of key study design factors (including confounders, applied exposure model, population age, and outcome definition) on PM 2.5 effect estimates by harmonizing analyses on three previously published large studies in Canada [Mortality-Air Pollution Associations in Low Exposure Environments (MAPLE), 1991-2016], the United States (Medicare, 2000-2016), and Europe [Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE), 2000-2016] as much as possible.

METHODS

We harmonized the study populations to individuals 65 + years of age, applied the same satellite-derived PM 2.5 exposure estimates, and selected the same sets of potential confounders and the same outcome. We evaluated whether differences in previously published effect estimates across cohorts were reduced after harmonization among these factors. Additional analyses were conducted to assess the influence of key design features on estimated risks, including adjusted covariates and exposure assessment method. A combined CRF was assessed with meta-analysis based on the extended shape-constrained health impact function (eSCHIF).

RESULTS

More than 81 million participants were included, contributing 692 million person-years of follow-up. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause mortality associated with a 5 - μ g / m 3 increase in PM 2.5 were 1.039 (1.032, 1.046) in MAPLE, 1.025 (1.021, 1.029) in Medicare, and 1.041 (1.014, 1.069) in ELAPSE. Applying a harmonized analytical approach marginally reduced difference in the observed associations across the three studies. Magnitude of the association was affected by the adjusted covariates, exposure assessment methodology, age of the population, and marginally by outcome definition. Shape of the CRFs differed across cohorts but generally showed associations down to the lowest observed PM 2.5 levels. A common CRF suggested a monotonically increased risk down to the lowest exposure level. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12141.

Longitudinal associations between metabolites and immediate, short- and medium-term exposure to ambient air pollution: Results from the KORA cohort study

BACKGROUND

Short-term exposure to air pollution has been reported to be associated with cardiopulmonary diseases, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate changes in serum metabolites associated with immediate, short- and medium-term exposures to ambient air pollution.

METHODS

We used data from the German population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4 survey (1999-2001) and two follow-up examinations (F4: 2006-08 and FF4: 2013-14). Mass-spectrometry-based targeted metabolomics was used to quantify metabolites among serum samples. Only participants with repeated metabolites measurements were included in this analysis. We collected daily averages of fine particles (PM2.5), coarse particles (PMcoarse), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) at urban background monitors located in Augsburg, Germany. Covariate-adjusted generalized additive mixed-effects models were used to examine the associations between immediate (2-day average of same day and previous day as individual's blood withdrawal), short- (2-week moving average), and medium-term exposures (8-week moving average) to air pollution and metabolites. We further performed pathway analysis for the metabolites significantly associated with air pollutants in each exposure window.

RESULTS

Of 9,620 observations from 4,261 study participants, we included 5,772 (60.0%) observations from 2,583 (60.6%) participants in this analysis. Out of 108 metabolites that passed quality control, multiple significant associations between metabolites and air pollutants with several exposure windows were identified at a Bonferroni corrected p-value threshold (p < 3.9 × 10-5). We found the highest number of associations for NO2, particularly at the medium-term exposure windows. Among the identified metabolic pathways based on the metabolites significantly associated with air pollutants, the glycerophospholipid metabolism was the most robust pathway in different air pollutants exposures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggested that short- and medium-term exposure to air pollution might induce alterations of serum metabolites, particularly in metabolites involved in metabolic pathways related to inflammatory response and oxidative stress.

Outdoor Light at Night and Children's Body Mass: A Cross-Sectional Analysis in the Fr1da Study

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence supports an association between light at night (LAN) exposure with obesity or overweight in adults. However, effects of LAN exposure during childhood have yet to be further investigated.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we aimed to determine whether LAN exposure is associated with body mass in young children.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHOD

We used data from the Fr1da cohort study which screened children for early-stage islet autoimmunity in Bavaria, Germany from February 2015 to March 2019. A total of 62,212 children aged <11 years with complete residential information was included in the analysis. Self-reported weight and height were used to calculate age- and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) z-scores. LAN exposure was based on remotely sensed images from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite and assigned to the children's residencies. We used generalized additive models to estimate the associations between LAN exposure and BMI adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

We observed an increase in BMI z-scores of 34.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.4-42.6) per 10 nW/cm2/sr increment in LAN exposure at baseline (2015) and of 32.6% (24.3-41.0) for LAN exposure one year prior to screening, both adjusted for age and sex. Similar associations were observed after adjustment for socioeconomic status and urbanization degree.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that outdoor light exposure may be a risk factor for weight gain during childhood.

Long-term air pollution exposure and malignant intracranial tumours of the central nervous system: a pooled analysis of six European cohorts

BACKGROUND

Risk factors for malignant tumours of the central nervous system (CNS) are largely unknown.

METHODS

We pooled six European cohorts (N = 302,493) and assessed the association between residential exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particles (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3) and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) and malignant intracranial CNS tumours defined according to the International Classification of Diseases ICD-9/ICD-10 codes 192.1/C70.0, 191.0-191.9/C71.0-C71.9, 192.0/C72.2-C72.5. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level.

RESULTS

During 5,497,514 person-years of follow-up (average 18.2 years), we observed 623 malignant CNS tumours. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.07 (0.95, 1.21) per 10 μg/m³ NO2, 1.17 (0.96, 1.41) per 5 μg/m³ PM2.5, 1.10 (0.97, 1.25) per 0.5 10-5m-1 BC, and 0.99 (0.84, 1.17) per 10 μg/m³ O3.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed indications of an association between exposure to NO2, PM2.5, and BC and tumours of the CNS. The PM elements were not consistently associated with CNS tumour incidence.

Mixtures of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution, built environment and temperature and stroke incidence across Europe

INTRODUCTION

The complex interplay of multiple environmental factors and cardiovascular has scarcely been studied. Within the EXPANSE project, we evaluated the association between long-term exposure to multiple environmental indices and stroke incidence across Europe.

METHODS

Participants from three traditional adult cohorts (Germany, Netherlands and Sweden) and four administrative cohorts (Catalonia [region Spain], Rome [city-wide], Greece and Sweden [nationwide]) were followed until incident stroke, death, migration, loss of follow-up or study end. We estimated exposures at residential addresses from different exposure domains: air pollution (nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), ozone), built environment (green/blue spaces, impervious surfaces) and meteorology (seasonal mean and standard deviation of temperatures). Associations between environmental exposures and stroke were estimated in single and multiple-exposure Cox proportional hazard models, and Principal Component (PC) Analyses derived prototypes for specific exposures domains. We carried out random effects meta-analyses by cohort type.

RESULTS

In over 15 million participants, increased levels of NO2 and BC were associated with increased higher stroke incidence in both cohort types. Increased Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was associated with a lower stroke incidence in both cohort types, whereas an increase in impervious surface was associated with an increase in stroke incidence. The first PC of the air pollution domain (PM2.5, NO2 and BC) was associated with an increase in stroke incidence. For the built environment, higher levels of NDVI and lower levels of impervious surfaces were associated with a protective effect [%change in HR per 1 unit = -2.0 (95 %CI, -5.9;2.0) and -1.1(95 %CI, -2.0; -0.3) for traditional adult and administrative cohorts, respectively]. No clear patterns were observed for distance to blue spaces or temperature parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed increased HRs for stroke with exposure to PM2.5, NO2 and BC, lower levels of greenness and higher impervious surface in single and combined exposure models.

Effects of Short- And Medium-Term Exposures to Lower Air Temperature on 71 Novel Biomarkers of Subclinical Inflammation: Results from the KORA F4 Study

Increasing evidence has revealed that exposure to low temperatures is linked to a higher risk of chronic diseases and death; however, the mechanisms underlying the observed associations are still poorly understood. We performed a cross-sectional analysis with 1115 participants from the population-based KORA F4 study, which was conducted in Augsburg, Germany, from 2006 to 2008. Seventy-one inflammation-related protein biomarkers were analyzed in serum using proximity extension assay technology. We employed generalized additive models to explore short- and medium-term effects of air temperature on biomarkers of subclinical inflammation at cumulative lags of 0-1 days, 2-6 days, 0-13 days, 0-27 days, and 0-55 days. We found that short- and medium-term exposures to lower air temperature were associated with higher levels in 64 biomarkers of subclinical inflammation, such as Protein S100-A12 (EN-RAGE), Interleukin-6 (IL-6), Interleukin-10 (IL-10), C-C motif chemokine 28 (CCL28), and Neurotrophin-3 (NT-3). More pronounced associations between lower air temperature and higher biomarker of subclinical inflammation were observed among older participants, people with cardiovascular disease or prediabetes/diabetes, and people exposed to higher levels of air pollution (PM2.5, NO2, and O3). Our findings provide intriguing insight into how low air temperature may cause adverse health effects by activating inflammatory pathways.

Associations between medium- and long-term exposure to air temperature and epigenetic age acceleration

Climate change poses a serious threat to human health worldwide, while aging populations increase. However, no study has ever investigated the effects of air temperature on epigenetic age acceleration. This study involved 1,725 and 1,877 participants from the population-based KORA F4 (2006-2008) and follow-up FF4 (2013-2014) studies, respectively, conducted in Augsburg, Germany. The difference between epigenetic age and chronological age was referred to as epigenetic age acceleration and reflected by Horvath's epigenetic age acceleration (HorvathAA), Hannum's epigenetic age acceleration (HannumAA), PhenoAge acceleration (PhenoAA), GrimAge acceleration (GrimAA), and Epigenetic Skin and Blood Age acceleration (SkinBloodAA). Daily air temperature was estimated using hybrid spatiotemporal regression-based models. To explore the medium- and long-term effects of air temperature modeled in time and space on epigenetic age acceleration, we applied generalized estimating equations (GEE) with distributed lag non-linear models, and GEE, respectively. We found that high temperature exposure based on the 8-week moving average air temperature (97.5th percentile of temperature compared to median temperature) was associated with increased HorvathAA, HannumAA, GrimAA, and SkinBloodAA: 1.83 (95% CI: 0.29-3.37), 11.71 (95% CI: 8.91-14.50), 2.26 (95% CI: 1.03-3.50), and 5.02 (95% CI: 3.42-6.63) years, respectively. Additionally, we found consistent results with high temperature exposure based on the 4-week moving average air temperature was associated with increased HannumAA, GrimAA, and SkinBloodAA: 9.18 (95% CI: 6.60-11.76), 1.78 (95% CI: 0.66-2.90), and 4.07 (95% CI: 2.56-5.57) years, respectively. For the spatial variation in annual average temperature, a 1 °C increase was associated with an increase in all five measures of epigenetic age acceleration (HorvathAA: 0.41 [95% CI: 0.24-0.57], HannumAA: 2.24 [95% CI: 1.95-2.53], PhenoAA: 0.32 [95% CI: 0.05-0.60], GrimAA: 0.24 [95%: 0.11-0.37], and SkinBloodAA: 1.17 [95% CI: 1.00-1.35] years). In conclusion, our results provide first evidence that medium- and long-term exposures to high air temperature affect increases in epigenetic age acceleration.

Comparison of traditional Cox regression and causal modeling to investigate the association between long-term air pollution exposure and natural-cause mortality within European cohorts

Most studies investigating the health effects of long-term exposure to air pollution used traditional regression models, although causal inference approaches have been proposed as alternative. However, few studies have applied causal models and comparisons with traditional methods are sparse. We therefore compared the associations between natural-cause mortality and exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) using traditional Cox and causal models in a large multicenter cohort setting. We analysed data from eight well-characterized cohorts (pooled cohort) and seven administrative cohorts from eleven European countries. Annual mean PM_2.5 and NO₂ from Europe-wide models were assigned to baseline residential addresses and dichotomized at selected cut-off values (PM_2.5: 10, 12, 15 μg/m³; NO₂: 20, 40 μg/m³). For each pollutant, we estimated the propensity score as the conditional likelihood of exposure given available covariates, and derived corresponding inverse-probability weights (IPW). We applied Cox proportional hazards models i) adjusting for all covariates ("traditional Cox") and ii) weighting by IPW ("causal model"). Of 325,367 and 28,063,809 participants in the pooled and administrative cohorts, 47,131 and 3,580,264 died from natural causes, respectively. For PM_2.5 above vs. below 12 μg/m³, the hazard ratios (HRs) of natural-cause mortality were 1.17 (95% CI 1.13-1.21) and 1.15 (1.11-1.19) for the traditional and causal models in the pooled cohort, and 1.03 (1.01-1.06) and 1.02 (0.97-1.09) in the administrative cohorts. For NO₂ above vs below 20 μg/m³, the HRs were 1.12 (1.09-1.14) and 1.07 (1.05-1.09) for the pooled and 1.06 (95% CI 1.03-1.08) and 1.05 (1.02-1.07) for the administrative cohorts. In conclusion, we observed mostly consistent associations between long-term air pollution exposure and natural-cause mortality with both approaches, though estimates partly differed in individual cohorts with no systematic pattern. The application of multiple modelling methods might help to improve causal inference. 299 of 300 words.

Comparing "causal" and "traditional" approaches in the association of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution on mortality: How sensitive are the results?

BACKGROUND

Few comparisons between causal inference and traditional approaches have been performed. We applied "causal" and "traditional" methods to investigate the association between long-term air pollution exposure (PM_2.5 and NO₂) and mortality.

METHODS

We analyzed pooled data from eight well-characterized cohorts and one administrative cohort. We defined the generalized propensity score (GPS) as the conditional likelihood of exposure given confounders, and derived corresponding inverse-probability weights (IPW). We applied Cox-proportional hazard models weighted by IPW, adjusted for GPS, and directly adjusting for all confounders.

RESULTS

In IPW models, PM_2.5 5 µg/m³ increases were associated with hazard ratios (HR) = 1.141 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.107, 1.176) and 1.050 (1.014, 1.088) in the pooled and administrative cohorts. Corresponding estimates for traditional Cox models were 1.132 (1.107, 1.158) and 1.057 (1.025, 1.089). Almost identical results were found for all approaches and both pollutants, when unbalanced covariates were adjusted for in causal models.

CONCLUSIONS

Traditional and causal approaches provided consistent associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

High-resolution spatiotemporal modeling of daily near-surface air temperature in Germany over the period 2000-2020

The commonly used weather stations cannot fully capture the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface air temperature (T_air), leading to exposure misclassification and biased health effect estimates. We aimed to improve the spatiotemporal coverage of T_air data in Germany by using multi-stage modeling to estimate daily 1 × 1 km minimum (T_min), mean (T_mean), maximum (T_max) T_air and diurnal T_air range during 2000-2020. We used weather station T_air observations, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST), elevation, vegetation and various land use predictors. In the first stage, we built a linear mixed model with daily random intercepts and slopes for LST adjusted for several spatial predictors to estimate T_air from cells with both T_air and LST available. In the second stage, we used this model to predict T_air for cells with only LST available. In the third stage, we regressed the second stage predictions against interpolated T_air values to obtain T_air countrywide. All models achieved high accuracy (0.91 ≤ R² ≤ 0.98) and low errors (1.03 °C ≤ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≤ 2.02 °C). Validation with external data confirmed the good performance, locally, i.e., in Augsburg for all models (0.74 ≤ R² ≤ 0.99, 0.87 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 2.05 °C) and countrywide, for the T_mean model (0.71 ≤ R² ≤ 0.99, 0.79 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.19 °C). Annual T_mean averages ranged from 8.56 °C to 10.42 °C with the years beyond 2016 being constantly hotter than the 21-year average. The spatial variability within Germany exceeded 15 °C annually on average following patterns including mountains, rivers and urbanization. Using a case study, we showed that modeling leads to broader T_air variability representation for exposure assessment of participants in health cohorts. Our results indicate the proposed models as suitable for estimating nationwide T_air at high resolution. Our product is critical for temperature-based epidemiological studies and is also available for other research purposes.

Environmental risk factors of incident distal sensorimotor polyneuropathy: Results from the prospective population-based KORA F4/FF4 study

Distal sensorimotor polyneuropathy (DSPN) is a common condition in older populations with high prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes. We hypothesised that the risk of DSPN is increased by multiple ubiquitous environmental risk factors, particularly in people with obesity. This study was based on 423 individuals aged 62-81 years without DSPN who participated in the population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) F4 survey (2006-2008) in Southern Germany. During 6.5 years of follow-up, 188 participants developed clinical DSPN as assessed by the Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument. Environmental exposures, including air temperature, surrounding greenness (assessed with the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]), long-term road traffic noise and air pollution, were assessed at participants' residences. The cumulative risk index (CRI) evaluated the joint effects of co-occurring exposures on DSPN risk based on effect estimates from multi-exposure Poisson regression models. The models were adjusted for age, sex, height, waist circumference, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, education and neighbourhood socioeconomic status. In the entire cohort, the co-occurrence of an interquartile range (IQR) decrease in temperature of the warm season and NDVI in a 100-m buffer and of an IQR increase in night-time average traffic noise and in annual average particle number concentration (PNC) was positively associated with incident DSPN (CRI [95 % CI] 1.39 [1.02, 1.91]). Effect estimates for exposure combinations were generally higher in individuals with obesity (CRI 1.34-2.01) than in those without obesity (CRI 0.90-1.33). The four-exposure model showed a twofold increased risk of DSPN among obese (CRI [95 % CI] 2.01 [1.10, 3.67]), but not among non-obese individuals (CRI [95 % CI] 1.18 [0.83, 1.67]). Thus, ubiquitous environmental exposures jointly augment the risk of DSPN in the older population. Lower air temperature in the warm season, less greenness, and higher noise levels and ultrafine particle concentrations identified people with obesity as a particularly vulnerable subgroup.

Breast Cancer Incidence in Relation to Long-Term Low-Level Exposure to Air Pollution in the ELAPSE Pooled Cohort

BACKGROUND

Established risk factors for breast cancer include genetic disposition, reproductive factors, hormone therapy, and lifestyle-related factors such as alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, smoking, and obesity. More recently a role of environmental exposures, including air pollution, has also been suggested. The aim of this study, was to investigate the relationship between long-term air pollution exposure and breast cancer incidence.

METHODS

We conducted a pooled analysis among six European cohorts (n = 199,719) on the association between long-term residential levels of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particles (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and ozone in the warm season (O3) and breast cancer incidence in women. The selected cohorts represented the lower range of air pollutant concentrations in Europe. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level.

RESULTS

During 3,592,885 person-years of follow-up, we observed a total of 9,659 incident breast cancer cases. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed a HR (95% confidence interval) of 1.03 (1.00-1.06) per 10 μg/m³ NO2, 1.06 (1.01-1.11) per 5 μg/m³ PM2.5, 1.03 (0.99-1.06) per 0.5 10-5 m-1 BC, and 0.98 (0.94-1.01) per 10 μg/m³ O3. The effect estimates were most pronounced in the group of middle-aged women (50-54 years) and among never smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

The results were in support of an association between especially PM2.5 and breast cancer.

IMPACT

The findings of this study suggest a role of exposure to NO2, PM2.5, and BC in development of breast cancer.

Long-term air pollution exposure and Parkinson's disease mortality in a large pooled European cohort: An ELAPSE study

BACKGROUND

The link between exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases is well established, while evidence on neurodegenerative disorders including Parkinson's Disease (PD) remains limited.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and PD mortality in seven European cohorts.

METHODS

Within the project 'Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe' (ELAPSE), we pooled data from seven cohorts among six European countries. Annual mean residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), and ozone (O₃), as well as 8 PM_2.5 components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulphur, silicon, vanadium, zinc), for 2010 were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land use regression models. PD mortality was defined as underlying cause of death being either PD, secondary Parkinsonism, or dementia in PD. We applied Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and PD mortality, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Of 271,720 cohort participants, 381 died from PD during 19.7 years of follow-up. In single-pollutant analyses, we observed positive associations between PD mortality and PM_2.5 (hazard ratio per 5 µg/m³: 1.25; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.55), NO₂ (1.13; 0.95-1.34 per 10 µg/m³), and BC (1.12; 0.94-1.34 per 0.5 × 10^-5m^-1), and a negative association with O₃ (0.74; 0.58-0.94 per 10 µg/m³). Associations of PM_2.5, NO₂, and BC with PD mortality were linear without apparent lower thresholds. In two-pollutant models, associations with PM_2.5 remained robust when adjusted for NO₂ (1.24; 0.95-1.62) or BC (1.28; 0.96-1.71), whereas associations with NO₂ or BC attenuated to null. O₃ associations remained negative, but no longer statistically significant in models with PM_2.5. We detected suggestive positive associations with the potassium component of PM_2.5.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to PM_2.5, at levels well below current EU air pollution limit values, may contribute to PD mortality.

Higher Daily Air Temperature Is Associated with Shorter Leukocyte Telomere Length: KORA F3 and KORA F4

Higher air temperature is associated with increased age-related morbidity and mortality. To date, short-term effects of air temperature on leukocyte telomere length have not been investigated in an adult population. We aimed to examine the short-term associations between air temperature and leukocyte telomere length in an adult population-based setting, including two independent cohorts. This population-based study involved 5864 participants from the KORA F3 (2004-2005) and F4 (2006-2008) cohort studies conducted in Augsburg, Germany. Leukocyte telomere length was assessed by a quantitative PCR-based method. We estimated air temperature at each participant's residential address through a highly resolved spatiotemporal model. We conducted cohort-specific generalized additive models to explore the short-term effects of air temperature on leukocyte telomere length at lags 0-1, 2-6, 0-6, and 0-13 days separately and pooled the estimates by fixed-effects meta-analysis. Our study found that between individuals, an interquartile range (IQR) increase in daily air temperature was associated with shorter leukocyte telomere length at lags 0-1, 2-6, 0-6, and 0-13 days (%change: -2.96 [-4.46; -1.43], -2.79 [-4.49; -1.07], -4.18 [-6.08; -2.25], and -6.69 [-9.04; -4.27], respectively). This meta-analysis of two cohort studies showed that between individuals, higher daily air temperature was associated with shorter leukocyte telomere length.

Long term exposure to air pollution and kidney parenchyma cancer - Effects of low-level air pollution: a Study in Europe (ELAPSE)

BACKGROUND

Particulate matter (PM) is classified as a group 1 human carcinogen. Previous experimental studies suggest that particles in diesel exhaust induce oxidative stress, inflammation and DNA damage in kidney cells, but the evidence from population studies linking air pollution to kidney cancer is limited.

METHODS

We pooled six European cohorts (N = 302,493) to assess the association of residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3) and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) with cancer of the kidney parenchyma. The main exposure model was developed for year 2010. We defined kidney parenchyma cancer according to the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th Revision codes 189.0 and C64. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level.

RESULTS

The participants were followed from baseline (1985-2005) to 2011-2015. A total of 847 cases occurred during 5,497,514 person-years of follow-up (average 18.2 years). Median (5-95%) exposure levels of NO2, PM2.5, BC and O3 were 24.1 μg/m3 (12.8-39.2), 15.3 μg/m3 (8.6-19.2), 1.6 10-5 m-1 (0.7-2.1), and 87.0 μg/m3 (70.3-97.4), respectively. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92, 1.15) per 10 μg/m³ NO2, 1.04 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.21) per 5 μg/m³ PM2.5, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.11) per 0.5 10-5 m-1 BCE, and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) per 10 μg/m³ O3. We did not find associations between any of the elemental components of PM2.5 and cancer of the kidney parenchyma.

CONCLUSION

We did not observe an association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of kidney parenchyma cancer.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide in a large pooled European cohort: ELAPSE study

Ambient air pollution is an established risk factor for premature mortality from chronic cardiovascular, respiratory and metabolic diseases, while evidence on neurodegenerative diseases and psychiatric disorders remains limited. We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide in seven European cohorts. Within the multicenter project 'Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe' (ELAPSE), we pooled data from seven European cohorts from six countries. Based on the residential addresses, annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), ozone (O₃), and 8 PM_2.5 components were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land-use regression models. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality from dementia, psychiatric disorders, and suicide. Of 271,720 participants, 900 died from dementia, 241 from psychiatric disorders, and 164 from suicide, during a mean follow-up of 19.7 years. In fully adjusted models, we observed positive associations of NO₂ (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.38; 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.13, 1.70 per 10 µg/m³), PM_2.5 (HR = 1.29; 95 % CI: 0.98, 1.71 per 5 µg/m³), and BC (HR = 1.37; 95 % CI: 1.11, 1.69 per 0.5 × 10^-5/m) with psychiatric disorders mortality, as well as with suicide (NO₂: HR = 1.13 [95 % CI: 0.92, 1.38]; PM_2.5: HR = 1.19 [95 % CI: 0.76, 1.87]; BC: HR = 1.08 [95 % CI: 0.87, 1.35]), and no association with dementia mortality. We did not detect any positive associations of O₃ and 8 PM_2.5 components with any of the three mortality outcomes. Long-term exposure to NO₂, PM_2.5, and BC may lead to premature mortality from psychiatric disorders and suicide.

Longitudinal associations between metabolites and long-term exposure to ambient air pollution: Results from the KORA cohort study

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to air pollution has been associated with cardiopulmonary diseases, while the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate changes in serum metabolites associated with long-term exposure to air pollution and explore the susceptibility characteristics.

METHODS

We used data from the German population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4 survey (1999-2001) and two follow-up examinations (F4: 2006-08 and FF4: 2013-14). Mass-spectrometry-based targeted metabolomics was used to quantify metabolites among serum samples. Only participants with repeated metabolites measurements were included in the current analysis. Land-use regression (LUR) models were used to estimate annual average concentrations of ultrafine particles, particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM₁₀), coarse particles (PM_coarse), fine particles, PM_2.5 absorbance (a proxy of elemental carbon related to traffic exhaust, PM_2.5abs), nitrogen oxides (NO₂, NO_x), and ozone at individuals' residences. We applied confounder-adjusted mixed-effects regression models to examine the associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and metabolites.

RESULTS

Among 9,620 observations from 4,261 KORA participants, we included 5,772 (60.0%) observations from 2,583 (60.6%) participants in this analysis. Out of 108 metabolites that passed stringent quality control across three study points in time, we identified nine significant negative associations between phosphatidylcholines (PCs) and ambient pollutants at a Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) corrected p-value < 0.05. The strongest association was seen for an increase of 0.27 μg/m³ (interquartile range) in PM_2.5abs and decreased phosphatidylcholine acyl-alkyl C36:3 (PC ae C36:3) concentrations [percent change in the geometric mean: -2.5% (95% confidence interval: -3.6%, -1.5%)].

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggested that long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with metabolic alterations, particularly in PCs with unsaturated long-chain fatty acids. These findings might provide new insights into potential mechanisms for air pollution-related adverse outcomes.

Future temperature-related mortality considering physiological and socioeconomic adaptation: a modelling framework

BACKGROUND

As the climate changes, it is crucial to focus not only on mitigation measures but also on building climate change resilience by developing efficient adaptation strategies. Although population adaptation is a major determinant of future climate-related health burden, it is not well accounted for in studies that project the health impact of climate change. We propose a methodological framework for temperature-related mortality that incorporates two simultaneous adaptation-sensitivity pathways: the physiological pathway, considering both heat adaptation and cold sensitivity, and the socioeconomic pathway, which is influenced by changes in future adaptive capacities. To demonstrate its utility we apply the framework to a case study mortality time-series dataset from Bavaria, Germany.

METHODS

In this modelling framework, we used extrapolated location-specific and age-specific baseline exposure-response functions and propose different future scenarios of cold sensitivity and heat adaptation on the basis of varying slopes of these exposure-response functions. We also incorporated future socioeconomic adaptation in the exposure-response functions using projections of gross domestic product under the respective shared socioeconomic pathways. Future adaptable fractions, representing the deaths avoided under each of the future scenarios, are projected under combinations of two climate change scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP]1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) and the respective plausible population projection scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), also incorporating the future changes in demographic age structure and mortality. The case study for this framework was done for five districts in Bavaria, for both total non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The baseline data was obtained for the period 1990-2006, and the future period was defined as 2083-99.

FINDINGS

In our Bavaria case study, average temperature was projected to increase by 2099 by an average of 1·1°C under SSP1-2.6 and by 4·1°C under SSP3-7.0. We observed the adaptable fraction to be largely influenced by socioeconomic adaptation for both total mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality, and for both climate change scenarios. For example, for total mortality, the highest adaptable fraction of 18·56% (95% empirical CI 10·77-23·67) was observed under the SSP1-2.6 future scenario, in the presence of socioeconomic adaptation and under the highest heat adaptation (10%) provided the cold sensitivity remains 0%. The cold adaptable fraction is lower than the heat adaptable fraction under all scenarios. In the absence of socioeconomic adaptation, population ageing will lead to higher temperature-related mortality.

INTERPRETATION

Our developed framework helps to systematically understand the effectiveness of adaptation mechanisms. In the future, socioeconomic adaptation is estimated to play a major role in determining temperature-related excess mortality. Furthermore, cold sensitivity might outweigh heat adaptation in the majority of locations worldwide. Similarly, population ageing is projected to continue to determine future temperature-related mortality.

FUNDING

EU Horizon 2020 (EXHAUSTION).

Gaseous air pollutants and DNA methylation in a methylome-wide association study of an ethnically and environmentally diverse population of U.S. adults

Epigenetic mechanisms may underlie air pollution-health outcome associations. We estimated gaseous air pollutant-DNA methylation (DNAm) associations using twelve subpopulations within Women's Health Initiative (WHI) and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohorts (n = 8397; mean age 61.3 years; 83% female; 46% African-American, 46% European-American, 8% Hispanic/Latino). We used geocoded participant address-specific mean ambient carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO2; NOx), ozone (O3), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations estimated over the 2-, 7-, 28-, and 365-day periods before collection of blood samples used to generate Illumina 450 k array leukocyte DNAm measurements. We estimated methylome-wide, subpopulation- and race/ethnicity-stratified pollutant-DNAm associations in multi-level, linear mixed-effects models adjusted for sociodemographic, behavioral, meteorological, and technical covariates. We combined stratum-specific estimates in inverse variance-weighted meta-analyses and characterized significant associations (false discovery rate; FDR<0.05) at Cytosine-phosphate-Guanine (CpG) sites without among-strata heterogeneity (PCochran's Q > 0.05). We attempted replication in the Cooperative Health Research in Region of Augsburg (KORA) study and Normative Aging Study (NAS). We observed a -0.3 (95% CI: -0.4, -0.2) unit decrease in percent DNAm per interquartile range (IQR, 7.3 ppb) increase in 28-day mean NO2 concentration at cg01885635 (chromosome 3; regulatory region 290 bp upstream from ZNF621; FDR = 0.03). At intragenic sites cg21849932 (chromosome 20; LIME1; intron 3) and cg05353869 (chromosome 11; KLHL35; exon 2), we observed a -0.3 (95% CI: -0.4, -0.2) unit decrease (FDR = 0.04) and a 1.2 (95% CI: 0.7, 1.7) unit increase (FDR = 0.04), respectively, in percent DNAm per IQR (17.6 ppb) increase in 7-day mean ozone concentration. Results were not fully replicated in KORA and NAS. We identified three CpG sites potentially susceptible to gaseous air pollution-induced DNAm changes near genes relevant for cardiovascular and lung disease. Further harmonized investigations with a range of gaseous pollutants and averaging durations are needed to determine the effect of gaseous air pollutants on DNA methylation and ultimately gene expression.

Association of long-term environmental exposures in pregnancy and early life with islet autoimmunity development in children in Bavaria, Germany

OBJECTIVE

Incidence of early-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) has been increasing worldwide. Only few studies examined the relationship between geographical environmental variation and T1D incidence or its presymptomatic stage of islet autoimmunity. Our study aimed to investigate the effect of long-term environmental exposures during pregnancy and early life on childhood islet autoimmunity.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used data from the Fr1da cohort study which screened children aged 1.75-5.99 years for multiple islet autoantibodies in Bavaria, Germany between 2015 and 2019. We included 85,251 children with valid residential information. Daily averages for particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 μm, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, air temperature, and greenness were averaged for each zip-code or directly assigned to the addresses. The exposure windows included pregnancy, the first year and the first two years of life. Generalized additive models adjusting for individual and socioeconomic variables were used to investigate associations between environmental exposures and islet autoimmunity development.

RESULTS

Islet autoimmunity was diagnosed in 272 children. Colder air temperature during pregnancy was associated with developing islet autoimmunity at the address (per 2.2 °C decrease, Odds ratio (OR): 1.49; 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.21-1.83) and zip-code level (per 2.4 °C decrease, OR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.08-1.59). Using the addresses, significant associations were also observed during the first years of life.

CONCLUSION

In this study, children's residential exposure to lower levels of air temperature during pregnancy and early life increased the risk of islet autoimmunity before the age of six.

Exposure to surrounding greenness and natural-cause and cause-specific mortality in the ELAPSE pooled cohort

BACKGROUND

The majority of studies have shown higher greenness exposure associated with reduced mortality risks, but few controlled for spatially correlated air pollution and traffic noise exposures. We aim to address this research gap in the ELAPSE pooled cohort.

METHODS

Mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in a 300-m grid cell and 1-km radius were assigned to participants' baseline home addresses as a measure of surrounding greenness exposure. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association of NDVI exposure with natural-cause and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for a number of potential confounders including socioeconomic status and lifestyle factors at individual and area-levels. We further assessed the associations between greenness exposure and mortality after adjusting for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and road traffic noise.

RESULTS

The pooled study population comprised 327,388 individuals who experienced 47,179 natural-cause deaths during 6,374,370 person-years of follow-up. The mean NDVI in the pooled cohort was 0.33 (SD 0.1) and 0.34 (SD 0.1) in the 300-m grid and 1-km buffer. In the main fully adjusted model, 0.1 unit increment of NDVI inside 300-m grid was associated with 5% lower risk of natural-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.95 (95% CI: 0.94, 0.96)). The associations attenuated after adjustment for air pollution [HR (95% CI): 0.97 (0.96, 0.98) adjusted for PM2.5; 0.98 (0.96, 0.99) adjusted for NO2]. Additional adjustment for traffic noise hardly affected the associations. Consistent results were observed for NDVI within 1-km buffer. After adjustment for air pollution, NDVI was inversely associated with diabetes, respiratory and lung cancer mortality, yet with wider 95% confidence intervals. No association with cardiovascular mortality was found.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a significant inverse association between surrounding greenness and natural-cause mortality, which remained after adjusting for spatially correlated air pollution and traffic noise.

Long-Term Exposure to Source-Specific Fine Particles and Mortality─A Pooled Analysis of 14 European Cohorts within the ELAPSE Project

We assessed mortality risks associated with source-specific fine particles (PM_2.5) in a pooled European cohort of 323,782 participants. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for source-specific PM_2.5 identified through a source apportionment analysis. Exposure to 2010 annual average concentrations of source-specific PM_2.5 components was assessed at baseline residential addresses. The source apportionment resulted in the identification of five sources: traffic, residual oil combustion, soil, biomass and agriculture, and industry. In single-source analysis, all identified sources were significantly positively associated with increased natural mortality risks. In multisource analysis, associations with all sources attenuated but remained statistically significant with traffic, oil, and biomass and agriculture. The highest association per interquartile increase was observed for the traffic component (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04 and 1.08 per 2.86 μg/m³ increase) across five identified sources. On a 1 μg/m³ basis, the residual oil-related PM_2.5 had the strongest association (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.05 and 1.22), which was substantially higher than that for generic PM_2.5 mass, suggesting that past estimates using the generic PM_2.5 exposure response function have underestimated the potential clean air health benefits of reducing fossil-fuel combustion. Source-specific associations with cause-specific mortality were in general consistent with findings of natural mortality.

Assessment of the association of exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, oxidative stress, and inflammation: A cross-sectional study in Augsburg, Germany

BACKGROUND

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) has been linked to acute and chronic health effects through the suggested pathways of oxidative stress and inflammation. However, evidence is still limited. We aimed to investigate jointly the relationship of PAHs, oxidative stress, and inflammation.

METHODS

We measured 13 biomarkers of PAH exposure (n = 6: hydroxylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, [OH-PAHs]), oxidative stress (n = 6: malondialdehyde (MDA); 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG); and 4 representatives of the compound class of F_2α-isoprostanes) in urine, and inflammation (n = 1: high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, [hs-CRP]) in serum from 400 participants at the second follow-up (2013/2014) of the German KORA survey S4. Multiple linear regression models were applied to investigate the interplay between biomarkers.

RESULTS

Concentrations of biomarkers varied according to sex, age, smoking status, season, and a history of obesity, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease. All OH-PAHs were significantly and positively associated with oxidative stress biomarkers. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in sum OH-PAHs was associated with a 13.3% (95% CI: 9.9%, 16.9%) increase in MDA, a 6.5% (95% CI: 3.5%, 9.6%) increase in 8-OHdG, and an 8.4% (95% CI: 6.6%, 11.3%) increase in sum F_2α-isoprostanes. Associations were more pronounced between OH-PAHs and F_2α-isoprostanes but also between OH-PAHs and 8-OHdG for participants with potential underlying systemic inflammation (hs-CRP ≥ 3 mg/L). We observed no association between OH-PAHs and hs-CRP levels. While 8-OHdG was significantly positively associated with hs-CRP (13.7% [95% CI: 2.2%, 26.5%] per IQR increase in 8-OHdG), F_2α-isoprostanes and MDA indicated only a positive or null association, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The results of this cross-sectional study suggest, at a population level, that exposure to PAHs is associated with oxidative stress even in a low exposure setting. Oxidative stress markers, but not PAHs, were associated with inflammation. Individual risk factors were important contributors to these processes and should be considered in future studies. Further longitudinal studies are necessary to investigate the causal chain of the associations.

Long-term Air Pollution Exposure and Pneumonia-related Mortality in a Large Pooled European Cohort

Rationale: Ambient air pollution exposure has been linked to mortality from chronic cardiorespiratory diseases, while evidence on respiratory infections remains more limited. Objectives: We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and pneumonia-related mortality in adults in a pool of eight European cohorts. Methods: Within the multicenter project ELAPSE (Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe), we pooled data from eight cohorts among six European countries. Annual mean residential concentrations in 2010 for fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), and ozone were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land-use regression models. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and pneumonia, influenza, and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) mortality. Measurements and Main Results: Of 325,367 participants, 712 died from pneumonia and influenza combined, 682 from pneumonia, and 695 from ALRI during a mean follow-up of 19.5 years. NO₂ and BC were associated with 10-12% increases in pneumonia and influenza combined mortality, but 95% confidence intervals included unity (hazard ratios, 1.12 [0.99-1.26] per 10 μg/m³ for NO₂; 1.10 [0.97-1.24] per 0.5 10^-5m^-1 for BC). Associations with pneumonia and ALRI mortality were almost identical. We detected effect modification suggesting stronger associations with NO₂ or BC in overweight, employed, or currently smoking participants compared with normal weight, unemployed, or nonsmoking participants. Conclusions: Long-term exposure to combustion-related air pollutants NO₂ and BC may be associated with mortality from lower respiratory infections, but larger studies are needed to estimate these associations more precisely.

Short-term effects of cold spells on plasma viscosity: Results from the KORA cohort study in Augsburg, Germany

As the underlying mechanisms of the adverse effects of cold spells on cardiac events are not well understood, we explored the effects of cold spells on plasma viscosity, a blood parameter linked to cardiovascular disease. This cross-sectional study involved 3622 participants from the KORA S1 Study (1984-1985), performed in Augsburg, Germany. Exposure data was obtained from the Bavarian State Office for the Environment. Cold spells were defined as two or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures below the 3^rd, 5^th, or 10^th percentile of the distribution. The effects of cold spells on plasma viscosity were explored by generalized additive models with distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). We estimated cumulative effects at lags 0-1, 0-6, 0-13, 0-20, and 0-27 days separately. Cold spells (mean temperature <3^rd, <5^th or <10^th percentile) were significantly associated with an increase in plasma viscosity with a lag of 0-1 days [%change of geometric mean (95% confidence interval): 1.35 (0.06-2.68), 1.35 (0.06-2.68), and 2.49 (0.34-4.69), respectively], and a lag of 0-27 days [18.81 (8.97-29.54), 17.85 (8.29-28.25), and 7.41 (3.35-11.0), respectively]. For the analysis with mean temperature <3^rd or 10^th percentile, we also observed significant associations at lag 0-20 days [8.34 (0.43-16.88), and 4.96 (1.68, 8.35), respectively]. We found that cold spells had significant immediate and longer lagged effects on plasma viscosity. This finding supports the complex interplay of multiple mechanisms of cold on adverse cardiac events and enriches the knowledge about how cold exposure acts on the human body.

Long-term exposure to low ambient air pollution concentrations and mortality among 28 million people: results from seven large European cohorts within the ELAPSE project

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been associated with premature mortality, but associations at concentrations lower than current annual limit values are uncertain. We analysed associations between low-level air pollution and mortality within the multicentre study Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE).

METHODS

In this multicentre longitudinal study, we analysed seven population-based cohorts of adults (age ≥30 years) within ELAPSE, from Belgium, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, Norway, Rome (Italy), and Switzerland (enrolled in 2000-11; follow-up until 2011-17). Mortality registries were used to extract the underlying cause of death for deceased individuals. Annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2·5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon, and tropospheric warm-season ozone (O₃) from Europe-wide land use regression models at 100 m spatial resolution were assigned to baseline residential addresses. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for area-level and individual-level covariates to evaluate associations with non-accidental mortality, as the main outcome, and with cardiovascular, non-malignant respiratory, and lung cancer mortality. Subset analyses of participants living at low pollutant concentrations (as per predefined values) and natural splines were used to investigate the concentration-response function. Cohort-specific effect estimates were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

We analysed 28 153 138 participants contributing 257 859 621 person-years of observation, during which 3 593 741 deaths from non-accidental causes occurred. We found significant positive associations between non-accidental mortality and PM_2·5, NO₂, and black carbon, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1·053 (95% CI 1·021-1·085) per 5 μg/m³ increment in PM_2·5, 1·044 (1·019-1·069) per 10 μg/m³ NO₂, and 1·039 (1·018-1·059) per 0·5 × 10^-5/m black carbon. Associations with PM_2·5, NO₂, and black carbon were slightly weaker for cardiovascular mortality, similar for non-malignant respiratory mortality, and stronger for lung cancer mortality. Warm-season O₃ was negatively associated with both non-accidental and cause-specific mortality. Associations were stronger at low concentrations: HRs for non-accidental mortality at concentrations lower than the WHO 2005 air quality guideline values for PM_2·5 (10 μg/m³) and NO₂ (40 μg/m³) were 1·078 (1·046-1·111) per 5 μg/m³ PM_2·5 and 1·049 (1·024-1·075) per 10 μg/m³ NO₂. Similarly, the association between black carbon and non-accidental mortality was highest at low concentrations, with a HR of 1·061 (1·032-1·092) for exposure lower than 1·5× 10^-5/m, and 1·081 (0·966-1·210) for exposure lower than 1·0× 10^-5/m.

INTERPRETATION

Long-term exposure to concentrations of PM_2·5 and NO₂ lower than current annual limit values was associated with non-accidental, cardiovascular, non-malignant respiratory, and lung cancer mortality in seven large European cohorts. Continuing research on the effects of low concentrations of air pollutants is expected to further inform the process of setting air quality standards in Europe and other global regions.

FUNDING

Health Effects Institute.

Long term exposure to low level air pollution and mortality in eight European cohorts within the ELAPSE project: pooled analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines.

DESIGN

Pooled analysis of eight cohorts.

SETTING

Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality.

RESULTS

Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM_2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 µg/m³ in PM_2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 µg/m³ increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM_2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 µg/m³ an increase of 5 µg/m³ in PM_2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

Mortality and Morbidity Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Low-Level PM2.5, BC, NO2, and O3: An Analysis of European Cohorts in the ELAPSE Project

INTRODUCTION

Epidemiological cohort studies have consistently found associations between long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and a range of morbidity and mortality endpoints. Recent evaluations by the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease study have suggested that these associations may be nonlinear and may persist at very low concentrations. Studies conducted in North America in particular have suggested that associations with mortality persisted at concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) well below current air quality standards and guidelines. The uncertainty about the shape of the concentration-response function at the low end of the concentration distribution, related to the scarcity of observations in the lowest range, was the basis of the current project. Previous studies have focused on PM2.5, but increasingly associations with nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are being reported, particularly in studies that accounted for the fine spatial scale variation of NO2. Very few studies have evaluated the effects of long-term exposure to low concentrations of ozone (O3). Health effects of black carbon (BC), representing primary combustion particles, have not been studied in most large cohort studies of PM2.5. Cohort studies assessing health effects of particle composition, including elements from nontailpipe traffic emissions (iron, copper, and zinc) and secondary aerosol (sulfur) have been few in number and reported inconsistent results. The overall objective of our study was to investigate the shape of the relationship between long-term exposure to four pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, BC, and O3) and four broad health effect categories using a number of different methods to characterize the concentration-response function (i.e., linear, nonlinear, or threshold). The four health effect categories were (1) natural- and cause-specific mortality including cardiovascular and nonmalignant as well as malignant respiratory and diabetes mortality; and morbidity measured as (2) coronary and cerebrovascular events; (3) lung cancer incidence; and (4) asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence. We additionally assessed health effects of PM2.5 composition, specifically the copper, iron, zinc, and sulfur content of PM2,5.

METHODS

We focused on analyses of health effects of air pollutants at low concentrations, defined as less than current European Union (EU) Limit Values, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), and/or World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline values for PM2.5, NO2, and O3. We address the health effects at low air pollution levels by performing new analyses within selected cohorts of the ESCAPE study (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects; Beelen et al. 2014a) and within seven very large European administrative cohorts. By combining well-characterized ESCAPE cohorts and large administrative cohorts in one study the strengths and weaknesses of each approach can be addressed. The large administrative cohorts are more representative of national or citywide populations, have higher statistical power, and can efficiently control for area-level confounders, but have fewer possibilities to control for individual-level confounders. The ESCAPE cohorts have detailed information on individual confounders, as well as country-specific information on area-level confounding. The data from the seven included ESCAPE cohorts and one additional non-ESCAPE cohort have been pooled and analyzed centrally. More than 300,000 adults were included in the pooled cohort from existing cohorts in Sweden, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, France, and Italy. Data from the administrative cohorts have been analyzed locally, without transfer to a central database. Privacy regulations prevented transfer of data from administrative cohorts to a central database. More than 28 million adults were included from national administrative cohorts in Belgium, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland as well as an administrative cohort in Rome, Italy. We developed central exposure assessment using Europewide hybrid land use regression (LUR) models, which incorporated European routine monitoring data for PM2.5, NO2, and O3, and ESCAPE monitoring data for BC and PM2.5 composition, land use, and traffic data supplemented with satellite observations and chemical transport model estimates. For all pollutants, we assessed exposure at a fine spatial scale, 100 × 100 m grids. These models have been applied to individual addresses of all cohorts including the administrative cohorts. In sensitivity analyses, we applied the PM2.5 models developed within the companion HEI-funded Canadian MAPLE study (Brauer et al. 2019) and O3 exposures on a larger spatial scale for comparison with previous studies. Identification of outcomes included linkage with mortality, cancer incidence, hospital discharge registries, and physician-based adjudication of cases. We analyzed natural-cause, cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cardiometabolic, respiratory, and COPD mortality. We also analyzed lung cancer incidence, incidence of coronary and cerebrovascular events, and incidence of asthma and COPD (pooled cohort only). We applied the Cox proportional hazard model with increasing control for individual- and area-level covariates to analyze the associations between air pollution and mortality and/or morbidity for both the pooled cohort and the individual administrative cohorts. Age was used as the timescale because of evidence that this results in better adjustment for potential confounding by age. Censoring occurred at the time of the event of interest, death from other causes, emigration, loss to follow-up for other reasons, or at the end of follow-up, whichever came first. A priori we specified three confounder models, following the modeling methods of the ESCAPE study. Model 1 included only age (time axis), sex (as strata), and calendar year of enrollment. Model 2 added individual-level variables that were consistently available in the cohorts contributing to the pooled cohort or all variables available in the administrative cohorts, respectively. Model 3 further added area-level socioeconomic status (SES) variables. A priori model 3 was selected as the main model. All analyses in the pooled cohort were stratified by subcohort. All analyses in the administrative cohorts accounted for clustering of the data in neighborhoods by adjusting the variance of the effect estimates. The main exposure variable we analyzed was derived from the Europewide hybrid models based on 2010 monitoring data. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using earlier time periods, time-varying exposure analyses, local exposure models, and the PM2.5 models from the Canadian MAPLE project. We first specified linear single-pollutant models. Two-pollutant models were specified for all combinations of the four main pollutants. Two-pollutant models for particle composition were analyzed with PM2.5 and NO2 as the second pollutant. We then investigated the shape of the concentration-response function using natural splines with two, three, and four degrees of freedom; penalized splines with the degrees of freedom determined by the algorithm and shape-constrained health impact functions (SCHIF) using confounder model 3. Additionally, we specified linear models in subsets of the concentration range, defined by removing concentrations above a certain value from the analysis, such as for PM2.5 25 μg/m3 (EU limit value), 20, 15, 12 μg/m3 (U.S. EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standard), and 10 μg/m3 (WHO Air Quality Guideline value). Finally, threshold models were evaluated to investigate whether the associations persisted below specific concentration values. For PM2.5, we evaluated 10, 7.5, and 5 μg/m3 as potential thresholds. Performance of threshold models versus the corresponding no-threshold linear model were evaluated using the Akaike information criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

In the pooled cohort, virtually all subjects in 2010 had PM2.5 and NO2 annual average exposures below the EU limit values (25 μg/m3 and 40 μg/m3, respectively). More than 50,000 had a residential PM2.5 exposure below the U.S. EPA NAAQS (12 μg/m3). More than 25,000 subjects had a residential PM2.5 exposure below the WHO guideline (10 μg/m3). We found significant positive associations between PM2.5, NO2, and BC and natural-cause, respiratory, cardiovascular, and diabetes mortality. In our main model, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% [confidence interval] CI) were 1.13 (CI = 1.11, 1.16) for an increase of 5 μg/m3 PM2.5, 1.09 (CI = 1.07, 1.10) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 NO2, and 1.08 (CI = 1.06, 1.10) for an increase of 0.5 × 10-5/m BC for natural-cause mortality. The highest HRs were found for diabetes mortality. Associations with O3 were negative, both in the fine spatial scale of the main ELAPSE model and in large spatial scale exposure models. For PM2.5, NO2, and BC, we generally observed a supralinear association with steeper slopes at low exposures and no evidence of a concentration below which no association was found. Subset analyses further confirmed that these associations remained at low levels: below 10 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 20 μg/m3 for NO2. HRs were similar to the full cohort HRs for subjects with exposures below the EU limit values for PM2.5 and NO2, the U.S. NAAQS values for PM2.5, and the WHO guidelines for PM2.5 and NO2. The mortality associations were robust to alternative specifications of exposure, including different time periods, PM2.5 from the MAPLE project, and estimates from the local ESCAPE model. Time-varying exposure natural spline analyses confirmed associations at low pollution levels. HRs in two-pollutant models were attenuated but remained elevated and statistically significant for PM2.5 and NO2. In two-pollutant models of PM2.5 and NO2 HRs for natural-cause mortality were 1.08 (CI = 1.05, 1.11) for PM2.5 and 1.05 (CI = 1.03, 1.07) for NO2. Associations with O3 were attenuated but remained negative in two-pollutant models with NO2, BC, and PM2.5. We found significant positive associations between PM2.5, NO2, and BC and incidence of stroke and asthma and COPD hospital admissions. Furthermore, NO2 was significantly related to acute coronary heart disease and PM2.5 was significantly related to lung cancer incidence. We generally observed linear to supralinear associations with no evidence of a threshold, with the exception of the association between NO2 and acute coronary heart disease, which was sublinear. Subset analyses documented that associations remained even with PM2.5 below 20 μg/m3 and possibly 12 μg/m3. Associations remained even when NO2 was below 30 μg/m3 and in some cases 20 μg/m3. In two-pollutant models, NO2 was most consistently associated with acute coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, and COPD hospital admissions. PM2.5 was not associated with these outcomes in two-pollutant models with NO2. PM2.5 was the only pollutant that was associated with lung cancer incidence in two-pollutant models. Associations with O3 were negative though generally not statistically significant. In the administrative cohorts, virtually all subjects in 2010 had PM2.5 and NO2 annual average exposures below the EU limit values. More than 3.9 million subjects had a residential PM2.5 exposure below the U.S. EPA NAAQS (12 μg/m3) and more than 1.9 million had residential PM2.5 exposures below the WHO guideline (10 μg/m3). We found significant positive associations between PM2.5, NO2, and BC and natural-cause, respiratory, cardiovascular, and lung cancer mortality, with moderate to high heterogeneity between cohorts. We found positive but statistically nonsignificant associations with diabetes mortality. In our main model meta-analysis, the HRs (95% CI) for natural-cause mortality were 1.05 (CI = 1.02, 1.09) for an increase of 5 μg/m3 PM2.5, 1.04 (CI = 1.02, 1.07) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 NO2, and 1.04 (CI = 1.02, 1.06) for an increase of 0.5 × 10-5/m BC, and 0.95 (CI = 0.93, 0.98) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 O3. The shape of the concentration-response functions differed between cohorts, though the associations were generally linear to supralinear, with no indication of a level below which no associations were found. Subset analyses documented that these associations remained at low levels: below 10 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 20 μg/m3 for NO2. BC and NO2 remained significantly associated with mortality in two-pollutant models with PM2.5 and O3. The PM2.5 HR attenuated to unity in a two-pollutant model with NO2. The negative O3 association was attenuated to unity and became nonsignificant. The mortality associations were robust to alternative specifications of exposure, including time-varying exposure analyses. Time-varying exposure natural spline analyses confirmed associations at low pollution levels. Effect estimates in the youngest participants (<65 years at baseline) were much larger than in the elderly (>65 years at baseline). Effect estimates obtained with the ELAPSE PM2.5 model did not differ from the MAPLE PM2.5 model on average, but in individual cohorts, substantial differences were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and BC was positively associated with natural-cause and cause-specific mortality in the pooled cohort and the administrative cohorts. Associations were found well below current limit values and guidelines for PM2.5 and NO2. Associations tended to be supralinear, with steeper slopes at low exposures with no indication of a threshold. Two-pollutant models documented the importance of characterizing the ambient mixture with both NO2 and PM2.5. We mostly found negative associations with O3. In two-pollutant models with NO2, the negative associations with O3 were attenuated to essentially unity in the mortality analysis of the administrative cohorts and the incidence analyses in the pooled cohort. In the mortality analysis of the pooled cohort, significant negative associations with O3 remained in two-pollutant models. Long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and BC was also positively associated with morbidity outcomes in the pooled cohort. For stroke, asthma, and COPD, positive associations were found for PM2.5, NO2, and BC. For acute coronary heart disease, an increased HR was observed for NO2. For lung cancer, an increased HR was found only for PM2.5. Associations mostly showed steeper slopes at low exposures with no indication of a threshold.

Long-term exposure to low-level ambient air pollution and incidence of stroke and coronary heart disease: a pooled analysis of six European cohorts within the ELAPSE project

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, but evidence is unclear on the health effects of exposure to pollutant concentrations lower than current EU and US standards and WHO guideline limits. Within the multicentre study Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE), we investigated the associations of long-term exposures to fine particulate matter (PM2·5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon, and warm-season ozone (O3) with the incidence of stroke and acute coronary heart disease.

METHODS

We did a pooled analysis of individual data from six population-based cohort studies within ELAPSE, from Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany (recruited 1992-2004), and harmonised individual and area-level variables between cohorts. Participants (all adults) were followed up until migration from the study area, death, or incident stroke or coronary heart disease, or end of follow-up (2011-15). Mean 2010 air pollution concentrations from centrally developed European-wide land use regression models were assigned to participants' baseline residential addresses. We used Cox proportional hazards models with increasing levels of covariate adjustment to investigate the association of air pollution exposure with incidence of stroke and coronary heart disease. We assessed the shape of the concentration-response function and did subset analyses of participants living at pollutant concentrations lower than predefined values.

FINDINGS

From the pooled ELAPSE cohorts, data on 137 148 participants were analysed in our fully adjusted model. During a median follow-up of 17·2 years (IQR 13·8-19·5), we observed 6950 incident events of stroke and 10 071 incident events of coronary heart disease. Incidence of stroke was associated with PM2·5 (hazard ratio 1·10 [95% CI 1·01-1·21] per 5 μg/m3 increase), NO2 (1·08 [1·04-1·12] per 10 μg/m3 increase), and black carbon (1·06 [1·02-1·10] per 0·5 10-5/m increase), whereas coronary heart disease incidence was only associated with NO2 (1·04 [1·01-1·07]). Warm-season O3 was not associated with an increase in either outcome. Concentration-response curves indicated no evidence of a threshold below which air pollutant concentrations are not harmful for cardiovascular health. Effect estimates for PM2·5 and NO2 remained elevated even when restricting analyses to participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the EU limit values of 25 μg/m3 for PM2·5 and 40 μg/m3 for NO2.

INTERPRETATION

Long-term air pollution exposure was associated with incidence of stroke and coronary heart disease, even at pollutant concentrations lower than current limit values.

FUNDING

Health Effects Institute.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and liver cancer incidence in six European cohorts

Particulate matter air pollution and diesel engine exhaust have been classified as carcinogenic for lung cancer, yet few studies have explored associations with liver cancer. We used six European adult cohorts which were recruited between 1985 and 2005, pooled within the "Effects of low-level air pollution: A study in Europe" (ELAPSE) project, and followed for the incidence of liver cancer until 2011 to 2015. The annual average exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂ ), particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5 ), black carbon (BC), warm-season ozone (O₃ ), and eight elemental components of PM_2.5 (copper, iron, zinc, sulfur, nickel, vanadium, silicon, and potassium) were estimated by European-wide hybrid land-use regression models at participants' residential addresses. We analyzed the association between air pollution and liver cancer incidence by Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders. Of 330 064 cancer-free adults at baseline, 512 developed liver cancer during a mean follow-up of 18.1 years. We observed positive linear associations between NO₂ (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: 1.17, 1.02-1.35 per 10 μg/m³ ), PM_2.5 (1.12, 0.92-1.36 per 5 μg/m³ ), and BC (1.15, 1.00-1.33 per 0.5 10^-5 /m) and liver cancer incidence. Associations with NO₂ and BC persisted in two-pollutant models with PM_2.5 . Most components of PM_2.5 were associated with the risk of liver cancer, with the strongest associations for sulfur and vanadium, which were robust to adjustment for PM_2.5 or NO₂ . Our study suggests that ambient air pollution may increase the risk of liver cancer, even at concentrations below current EU standards.

Long-term exposure to low-level air pollution and incidence of asthma: the ELAPSE project

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked to childhood-onset asthma, although evidence is still insufficient. Within the multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE), we examined the associations of long-term exposures to particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µm (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and black carbon (BC) with asthma incidence in adults.

METHODS

We pooled data from three cohorts in Denmark and Sweden with information on asthma hospital diagnoses. The average concentrations of air pollutants in 2010 were modelled by hybrid land-use regression models at participants' baseline residential addresses. Associations of air pollution exposures with asthma incidence were explored with Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Of 98 326 participants, 1965 developed asthma during a mean follow-up of 16.6 years. We observed associations in fully adjusted models with hazard ratios of 1.22 (95% CI 1.04-1.43) per 5 μg·m^-3 for PM_2.5, 1.17 (95% CI 1.10-1.25) per 10 µg·m^-3 for NO₂ and 1.15 (95% CI 1.08-1.23) per 0.5×10^-5m^-1 for BC. Hazard ratios were larger in cohort subsets with exposure levels below the European Union and US limit values and possibly World Health Organization guidelines for PM_2.5 and NO₂. NO₂ and BC estimates remained unchanged in two-pollutant models with PM_2.5, whereas PM_2.5 estimates were attenuated to unity. The concentration-response curves showed no evidence of a threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to air pollution, especially from fossil fuel combustion sources such as motorised traffic, was associated with adult-onset asthma, even at levels below the current limit values.

Association of persistent organic pollutants with sensorimotor neuropathy in participants with and without diabetes or prediabetes: Results from the population-based KORA FF4 study

BACKGROUND

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have been associated with an increased type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. It remains unclear whether POPs are also associated with the risk of diabetes complications including neuropathy and evidence on this topic is scarce. We aimed to investigate the hypothesis that low-dose background concentrations of POPs were positively associated with distal sensorimotor polyneuropathy (DSPN).

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was based on data from the second follow-up (FF4, 2013-2014, N = 2279) of the population-based KORA S4 study (Augsburg, Germany). The study sample consisted of 200 participants, including four groups of 50 persons each with known T2D, prediabetes, newly diagnosed diabetes, and normal glucose tolerance (NGT) based on an oral glucose tolerance test. We analyzed the association of six most abundant serum concentrations of POPs, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) as well as organochlorine (OC) pesticides, with DSPN by multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, glycaemic status, body mass index, physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption. We assessed effect modification by age, sex, glycaemic status and obesity and conducted two-pollutant models to check the robustness of the estimates.

RESULTS

For all pollutants, the main models indicated no significant association of having DSPN but pointed to rather decreased odds for DSPN. Two-pollutant models supported these findings, though only the association between the combination of PCB-138 and beta-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH) (OR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.35-0.99) with DSPN became significant. No effect modification was found by age, sex, glycaemic status and obesity.

CONCLUSION

Low-dose concentrations of POPs were not associated with increased odds of having DSPN in T2D, prediabetes and NGT.