Simulating international tax designs on sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico

Political economy analysis of health taxes (tobacco, alcohol drink and sugar-sweteened beverage): qualitative study of three provinces in Indonesia

OBJECTIVE

Efforts to implement health tax policies to control the consumption of harmful commodities and enhance public health outcomes have garnered substantial recognition globally. However, their successful adoption remains a complex endeavour. This investigates the challenges and opportunities surrounding health tax implementation, with a particular focus on subnational government in Indonesia, where the decentralisation context of health tax remains understudied.

DESIGN

Employing a qualitative methodology using a problem-driven political economy analysis approach.

SETTING

We are collecting data from a total of 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) conducted between July and September 2022 in three provinces-Lampung, Special Region of/Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta and Bali, each chosen to represent a specific commodity: tobacco, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and alcoholic beverages-we explore the multifaceted dynamics of health tax policies.

PARTICIPANT

These FGDs involved a mean of 10 participants in each FGD, representing governmental institutions, non-governmental organisations and consumers.

RESULTS

Our findings reveal that health tax policies have the potential to contribute significantly to public health. Consumers understand tobacco's health risks, and cultural factors influence both tobacco and alcohol consumption. For SSBs, the consumers lack awareness of long-term health risks is concerning. Finally, bureaucratic complexiting and decentralised government hinder implementation for all three commodities.

CONCLUSION

Furthermore, this study underscores the importance of effective policy communication. It highlights the importance of earmarking health tax revenues for public health initiatives. It also reinforces the need to see health taxes as one intervention as part of a comprehensive public health approach including complementary non-fiscal measures like advertising restrictions and standardised packaging. Addressing these challenges is critical for realising the full potential of health tax policies.

Hypothetical impact of the Mexican front-of-pack labeling on intake of critical nutrients and energy

BACKGROUND

Since 2020 in Mexico, front-of-pack warning labels (FOPWL) have been implemented in processed products. Evidence supports warning labels allow consumers to identify unhealthy products. We aimed to evaluate the hypothetical impact of the FOPWL regulation on the Mexican population's intake of critical nutrients and energy, based on the replacement of food and beverages using 4 hypothetical scenarios which represented the phases of the regulation.

METHODS

Dietary data were collected using a standardized 24-h dietary recall from the 2016 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (n = 4184). To evaluate the hypothetical impact of FOPWL, the nutritional content of critical nutrients in processed products was evaluated according to the Mexican Official Standard 051 (NOM-051). Then, we replaced products with several warning labels (WL) with those with a fewer number of them or with non-processed food. For the replacement, 4 hypothetical scenarios were established: scenario 1: the current consumption of the Mexican Population, scenario 2: the replacement during the first phase of the norm, scenario 3: the replacement in the second phase and scenario 4: the replacement in the last phase. We estimated the means, confidence intervals (CI 95%), and the mean percentage change of energy, saturated fat, trans-fat, added sugars, and sodium intake during the second, third, and the fourth scenarios.

RESULTS

According to the norm, in the second scenario, the majority of the products presented a label for energy (52.6%) whereas in the third (56.4%) and fourth (61.2%) scenarios were for sodium. In contrast, trans-fat was the least labeled nutrient in all the scenarios (from 2.1 to 4.1%). In the fourth scenario, we observed a reduction of the intake of energy intake to 15.4% as well as saturated fat (- 20%, CI 95% - 18.4; - 21.6), trans-fat (- 8.2%, CI 95% - 6.4; - 10.1) and sodium (- 12.7%, CI 95% - 11.3; - 14.1). The most important reduction was observed for added sugars intake (until - 54.1%, CI 95% - 51; - 57.1).

CONCLUSIONS

FOPWL could be an effective strategy to decrease energy consumption and nutrients of concern. If consumers use the FOPWL, it would be an important change in critical nutrients intake. These results support that FOPWL might help the Mexican population to choose healthier nutrition alternatives.

Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implemented globally to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic diseases by disincentivizing consumption through increased prices (e.g., 1 peso/litre tax in Mexico) or incentivizing industry reformulation to reduce SSB sugar content (e.g., tiered structure of the United Kingdom [UK] Soft Drinks Industry Levy [SDIL]). In Germany, where no tax on SSBs is enacted, the health and economic impact of SSB taxation using the experience from internationally implemented tax designs has not been evaluated. The objective of this study was to estimate the health and economic impact of national SSBs taxation scenarios in Germany.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this modelling study, we evaluated a 20% ad valorem SSB tax with/without taxation of fruit juice (based on implemented SSB taxes and recommendations) and a tiered tax (based on the UK SDIL) in the German adult population aged 30 to 90 years from 2023 to 2043. We developed a microsimulation model (IMPACTNCD Germany) that captures the demographics, risk factor profile and epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in the German population using the best available evidence and national data. For each scenario, we estimated changes in sugar consumption and associated weight change. Resulting cases of cardiometabolic disease prevented/postponed and related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and economic impacts from healthcare (medical costs) and societal (medical, patient time, and productivity costs) perspectives were estimated using national cost and health utility data. Additionally, we assessed structural uncertainty regarding direct, body mass index (BMI)-independent cardiometabolic effects of SSBs and cross-validated results with an independently developed cohort model (PRIMEtime). We found that SSB taxation could reduce sugar intake in the German adult population by 1 g/day (95%-uncertainty interval [0.05, 1.65]) for a 20% ad valorem tax on SSBs leading to reduced consumption through increased prices (pass-through of 82%) and 2.34 g/day (95%-UI [2.32, 2.36]) for a tiered tax on SSBs leading to 30% reduction in SSB sugar content via reformulation. Through reductions in obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD), 106,000 (95%-UI [57,200, 153,200]) QALYs could be gained with a 20% ad valorem tax and 192,300 (95%-UI [130,100, 254,200]) QALYs with a tiered tax. Respectively, €9.6 billion (95%-UI [4.7, 15.3]) and €16.0 billion (95%-UI [8.1, 25.5]) costs could be saved from a societal perspective over 20 years. Impacts of the 20% ad valorem tax were larger when additionally taxing fruit juice (252,400 QALYs gained, 95%-UI [176,700, 325,800]; €11.8 billion costs saved, 95%-UI [€6.7, €17.9]), but impacts of all scenarios were reduced when excluding direct health effects of SSBs. Cross-validation with PRIMEtime showed similar results. Limitations include remaining uncertainties in the economic and epidemiological evidence and a lack of product-level data.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that SSB taxation in Germany could help to reduce the national burden of noncommunicable diseases and save a substantial amount of societal costs. A tiered tax designed to incentivize reformulation of SSBs towards less sugar might have a larger population-level health and economic impact than an ad valorem tax that incentivizes consumer behaviour change only through increased prices.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative tax policies on sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico

In 2014, Mexico implemented a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) equivalent to one Mexican peso (MP) per liter to address the high obesity prevalence. This tax has effectively reduced SSB purchases and yielded healthcare savings; however, it remains unknown whether SSB taxes lead to net benefits at the societal level in Mexico. Moreover, public health experts recommend increasing the tax. The objective of this study is to estimate the net benefits of SSB taxes compared to a scenario of no tax in urban Mexico. Taxes include the one-MP tax and alternative higher taxes (two and three MP per SSB liter). Thus, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis from the perspective of the government, producers, and consumers for a simulated closed cohort of adults in a life-table model. We defined net benefits as the difference between economic benefits (the value of statistical life, healthcare savings, and tax revenue) and costs (consumer surplus and profit losses). We found that, at the societal level, all simulated taxes will eventually generate benefits that surpass costs within ten years. Overall net benefits can reach USD 7.1 billion and 15.3 billion for the one-MP and the three-MP tax, respectively. Hence, these benefits increased at a declining rate compared to taxes. The government and consumers will experience overall positive net benefits among society's members. Policymakers should consider time horizons and tradeoffs between health gains and economic outcomes across different society members.

An exploration of stakeholder views and perceptions on taxing tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for nearly 43% of Ghana's all-cause mortality. Unhealthy commodities (such as alcohol, sugar and tobacco) are an important factor in the growing NCD burden in the region of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Despite health taxes on tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) gaining renewed attention, adoption and implementation in SSA remain limited. This study aims to unpack the contextual politics and to examine current perceptions of opportunities and barriers for health taxes in Ghana.

METHODS

Semistructured qualitative interviews (n=19) conducted with purposively sampled stakeholders representing four sectors: government, civil society, media and international organisations, and two group interviews with nine industry stakeholders, informed by a review of relevant literature and policy/advocacy documents.

RESULTS

Stakeholders had a general belief that such taxes are primarily useful for revenue generation (for health spending) rather than for reducing consumption and improving health. There do appear to be opportunities for health taxes with stakeholders broadly supportive of taxing SSBs. This support could be strengthened via 'health' framing of any new tax proposals, the generation of Ghana-specific evidence about the potential impacts of such taxes and greater public awareness. Industry actors and some government representatives opposed health taxes, citing concerns about the potential to increase illicit trade and economic harm. Some stakeholders also believed that links between politicians and affected industries represent an important barrier.

CONCLUSION

These findings identify opportunities to introduce health taxes but also underline the potential resistance from affected industry stakeholders. Nevertheless, a strategic approach that focuses on achieving policy coherence (between central government, health and economic ministries), combined with efforts to strengthen stakeholder and public support, may weaken the lobbying position of industry. Such efforts could be supported by research to help demonstrate the value of different designs of health taxes for achieving Ghana's health goals and to better understand industry-political links.

Animal welfare is a stronger determinant of public support for meat taxation than climate change mitigation in Germany

A tax on meat could help address the climate impact and animal welfare issues associated with the production of meat. Through a referendum choice experiment with more than 2,800 German citizens, we elicited support for a tax on meat by varying the following tax attributes: level and differentiation thereof, justification and salience of behavioural effects. Only at the lowest tax level tested do all tax variants receive support from most voters. Support is generally stronger if the tax is justified by animal welfare rather than climate change mitigation. Differentiated taxes that link the tax rate to the harmfulness of the product do not receive higher support than a uniform tax; this indifference is not driven by a failure to anticipate the differential impacts on consumption. While the introduction of meat taxation remains politically challenging, our results underscore the need for policymakers to clearly communicate underlying reasons for the tax and its intended behavioural effect.

Simulation models of sugary drink policies: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Simulation modeling methods are an increasingly common tool for projecting the potential health effects of policies to decrease sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake. However, it remains unknown which SSB policies are understudied and how simulation modeling methods could be improved. To inform next steps, we conducted a scoping review to characterize the (1) policies considered and (2) major characteristics of SSB simulation models.

METHODS

We systematically searched 7 electronic databases in 2020, updated in 2021. Two investigators independently screened articles to identify peer-reviewed research using simulation modeling to project the impact of SSB policies on health outcomes. One investigator extracted information about policies considered and key characteristics of models from the full text of included articles. Data were analyzed in 2021-22.

RESULTS

Sixty-one articles were included. Of these, 50 simulated at least one tax policy, most often an ad valorem tax (e.g., 20% tax, n = 25) or volumetric tax (e.g., 1 cent-per-fluid-ounce tax, n = 23). Non-tax policies examined included bans on SSB purchases (n = 5), mandatory reformulation (n = 3), warning labels (n = 2), and portion size policies (n = 2). Policies were typically modeled in populations accounting for age and gender or sex attributes. Most studies focused on weight-related outcomes (n = 54), used cohort, lifetable, or microsimulation modeling methods (n = 34), conducted sensitivity or uncertainty analyses (n = 56), and included supplementary materials (n = 54). Few studies included stakeholders at any point in their process (n = 9) or provided replication code/data (n = 8).

DISCUSSION

Most simulation modeling of SSB policies has focused on tax policies and has been limited in its exploration of heterogenous impacts across population groups. Future research would benefit from refined policy and implementation scenario specifications, thorough assessments of the equity impacts of policies using established methods, and standardized reporting to improve transparency and consistency.

How should we evaluate sweetened beverage tax policies? A review of worldwide experience

Over 45 jurisdictions globally have implemented sweetened beverage taxes. Researchers and policymakers need to assess whether and how these taxes change beverage demand and supply, their intended and unanticipated health, economic and equity impacts. Lessons from such evaluations can maximise the policies' success and impact on non-communicable disease prevention globally. We discuss key theoretical, design and methodological considerations to help policymakers, funders and researchers commission and conduct rigorous evaluations of these policies and related disease prevention efforts. We encourage involving the perspectives of various stakeholders on what evaluations are needed given the specific context, what data and methods are appropriate, readily available or can be collected within time and budget constraints. A logic model /conceptual system map of anticipated implications across sectors and scales should help identify optimal study design, analytical techniques and measures. These models should be updated when synthesising findings across diverse methods and integrating findings across subpopulations using similar methods.