Transboundary spread of peste des petits ruminants virus in western China: A prediction model

Prevalence and associated risk factors of peste des petits ruminants in selected districts of the northern border region of Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a world organization for animal health (WOAH) notifiable and economically important transboundary, highly communicable viral disease of small ruminants. PPR virus (PPRV) belongs to the genus Morbillivirus of the family Paramyxoviridae.

AIM

The present cross-sectional epidemiological investigation was accomplished to estimate the apparent prevalence and identify the risk factors linked with peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in the previously neglected northern border regions of Pakistan.

METHOD

A total of 1300 samples (serum = 328; swabs = 972) from 150 flocks/herds were compiled from sheep (n = 324), goats (n = 328), cattle (n = 324), and buffaloes (n = 324) during 2020-2021 and tested using ELISA for detection of viral antibody in sera or antigen in swabs.

RESULTS

An overall apparent prevalence of 38.7% (504 samples) and an estimated true prevalence (calculated by the Rogan and Gladen estimator) of 41.0% (95% CI, 38.0-44 were recorded in the target regions. The highest apparent prevalence of 53.4% (85 samples) and the true prevalence of 57.0%, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were documented in the Gilgit district and the lowest apparent prevalence of 53 (25.1%) and the true prevalence of 26.0%, 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 19.0-33.0) was reported in the Swat district. A questionnaire was designed to collect data about associated risk factors that were put into a univariable logistic regression to decrease the non-essential assumed risk dynamics with a P-value of 0.25. ArcGIS, 10.8.1 was used to design hotspot maps and MedCalc's online statistical software was used to calculate Odds Ratio (OR). Some of the risk factors significantly different (P < 0.05) in the multivariable logistic regression were flock/herd size, farming methods, nomadic animal movement, and outbreaks of PPR. The odds of large-sized flocks/herds were 1.7 (OR = 1.79; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.034-91.80%) times more likely to be positive than small-sized. The odds of transhumance and nomadic systems were 1.1 (OR = 1.15; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.022-58.64%) and 1.0 (OR = 1.02; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.020-51.97%) times more associated to be positive than sedentary and mixed farming systems, respectively. The odds of nomadic animal movement in the area was 0.7 (OR = 0.57; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.014-38.06%) times more associated to be positive than in areas where no nomadic movement was observed. In addition, the odds of an outbreak of PPR in the area were 1.0 (OR = 1.00; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.018-46.73%) times more associated to be positive than in areas where no outbreak of PPR was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

It was concluded that many northern regions considered endemic for PPR, large and small ruminants are kept and reared together making numerous chances for virus transmission dynamic, so a big threats of disease spread exist in the region. The results of the present study would contribute to the global goal of controlling and eradicating PPR by 2030.

Global transboundary transmission path and risk of Mpox revealed with Least Cost Path model

OBJECTIVES

The recent surge of Mpox outbreaks in multiple countries has garnered global attention. As of July 12, 2023, there have been 88,288 reported cases of Mpox worldwide. Although genetic variation was not found to be the cause of the epidemic outbreak, the reasons for its rapid spread remain unclear.

METHODS

Using the niche method, this study identified high-risk regions for Mpox and determined that human factors are the primary contributors to global risks. To further investigate, a travel network resistance surface was created based on various modes of transportation and was combined with sea, airline, highway, and railway routes to construct the least cost path for human travel networks in different risk areas.

RESULTS

The results indicated that high-risk regions for Mpox are mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States, with large risk ranges and high-risk values. The least cost path revealed three primary transmission paths rely on developed transportation networks, including internal transmission in North America, Europe-Africa, and Europe-Asia-Africa. These findings suggest that human activities, facilitated by developed travel networks, remain the main contributing factor to the spread.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, based on the Mpox epidemic report, this study conducted risk prediction and driving factor analysis on Mpox. The research results indicate that human use of transportation for long-distance activities is a key factor leading to the rapid spread of the virus. Subsequently, we focused on studying the global transmission pathways of Mpox and revealed several transmission pathways with high global population migration rates by constructing the LCPs between different high-risk areas. This study also emphasizes the importance of applying early monitoring data of Mpox to model risk prediction in controlling emerging infectious diseases, providing a new perspective for controlling Mpox and similar diseases.

Spatial risk of Haemaphysalis longicornis borne Dabieshan tick virus (DBTV) in China

The uncertainty and unknowability of emerging infectious diseases have caused many major public health and security incidents in recent years. As a new tick-borne disease, Dabieshan tick virus (DBTV) necessitate systematic epidemiological and spatial distribution analysis. In this study, tick samples from Liaoning Province were collected and used to evaluate distribution of DBTV in ticks. Outbreak points of DBTV and the records of the vector Haemaphysalis longicornis in China were collected and used to establish a prediction model using niche model combined with environmental factors. We found that H. longicornis and DBTV were widely distributed in Liaoning Province. The risk analysis results showed that the DBTV in the eastern provinces of China has a high risk, and the risk is greatly influenced by elevation, land cover, and meteorological factors. The risk geographical area predicted by the model is significantly larger than the detected positive areas, indicating that the etiological survey is seriously insufficient. This study provided molecular and important epidemiological evidence for etiological ecology of DBTV. The predicted high-risk areas indicated the insufficient monitoring and risk evaluation and the necessity of future monitoring and control work.

Estimating the spatial distribution of African swine fever outbreak in China by combining four regional-level spatial models

The outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China are ongoing, and the inadequate management of the pig supply chain is criticized. In the past four years, a series of preventive and control measures have been supplied national wide, while the outbreaks have not been terminated. This suggests the existing animal disease management at the district level may not be appropriate to control ASF under the current situation of the ASF outbreak in China. It is urgent to further describe real distribution areas of ASF in China. In this study, we combined four regional-scale models to predict the risk distribution of ASF in mainland China and identify risk factors related to ASF outbreaks. The results showed that the four regional-scale models were more accurate in predicting the ASF outbreaks than the nationwide scale model. The four regional-scale models identified the potential risk factors associated with ASF outbreaks, such as population density, pig density, land cover, temperature, and elevation factors. Moreover, seven clusters with high potential risk of ASF outbreaks were identified. Then, based on the results, we proposed more suitable prevention and control plans for ASF, which can assist the implementation of transport management policies within and between risk clusters.

Risk transboundary transmission areas and driving factors of brucellosis along the borders between China and Mongolia

OBJECTIVE

Brucellosis is a common and neglected zoonotic infectious disease worldwide caused by Brucella. However, transboundary transmissions among countries, particularly those with high incidences, are seldom investigated. In the present study, by taking China and Mongolia as examples, we aim to identify transboundary transmission risk and driving factors of brucellosis along borders.

METHODS

167 brucellosis outbreak locations along the border between China and Mongolia were collected. Wildlife distribution and cross-border activities were mapped. Maximum entropy approach modeling was conducted to predict the potential risk of prevalence of brucellosis with meteorological factors, geographical environment, economic development, living habits et al. The accuracy of the models was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), Kappa test, and correctly classified instances (CCI).

RESULTS

The spatial model performed excellent predictive performance with the predictor variables of soils, pastures, goat density, mean precipitation of the wettest month, temperature seasonality, and population density, which with the contribution and permutation important in 27.2 %, 31.9; 23.3 %, 6.8; 18.0 %, 17.2; 11.2 %, 18.1; 10. 3 %, 15.2; 10.0 %, 10.8. The calculated AUC, SD, Kappa, and CCI are 0.870, 0.001, 0.882, and 0.883, respectively. The distribution map of brucellosis showed high-risk areas along the borders.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified high-risk areas and the driving effect of brucellosis along the borders between China and Mongolia. Moreover, there is the possibility of cross-border wildlife activities in high-risk areas, which increases the risk of cross-border brucellosis transmission. The funding provides clues for cooperative prevention and control of brucellosis by reducing transboundary transmission.

Predicting Suitable Areas for African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Wild Boars in South Korea and Their Implications for Managing High-Risk Pig Farms

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boars, with no effective vaccine or treatment available. In South Korea, extensive measures have been implemented to prevent ASF transmission between wild boars and ASF spillover from wild boars to pig farm sectors, including the search for ASF-infected carcasses in mountainous forests and the installation of fences across wide areas of these forests. To determine the priority search range for infected carcasses and establish pig farm-centered quarantine measures, it is necessary to predict the specific path of ASF outbreaks in wild boars and identify pig farms at high risk of ASF spillover from wild boars. Here, we aimed to predict suitable areas and geographical paths for ASF outbreaks in wild boars using the MaxEnt model and shortest-path betweenness centrality analysis. The analysis identified a high frequency of ASF outbreaks in areas with a suitability value ≥0.4 on the suitability map and in areas within a 1.8 km range from the path on the shortest-path map, indicating these areas were high-risk zones for ASF outbreaks. Among the 5063 pig farms analyzed, 37 were in the high-risk zone on the suitability map, 499 were in the high-risk zone on the shortest-path map, and 9 were in both risk zones. Of the 51 pig farm sectors with a dense distribution of pig farms (kernel density ≥ 8), 25 sectors were in contact with or partially overlapped the high risk zone on the suitability map, 18 sectors were located within the high risk zone on the shortest-path map, and 14 sectors were located within both risk zones. These findings aided in determining the priority range for searches for wild boar carcasses and enabled the establishment of preemptive ASF prevention measures around the pig farming sectors that are at risk of ASF spillover from wild boars.

Investigation of Potency and Safety of Live-Attenuated Peste des Petits Ruminant Virus Vaccine in Goats by Detection of Cellular and Humoral Immune Response

The peste des petits ruminant (PPR) virus is a transboundary virus found in small domestic ruminants that causes high morbidity and mortality in naive herds. PPR can be effectively controlled and eradicated by vaccinating small domestic ruminants with a live-attenuated peste des petits ruminant virus (PPRV) vaccine, which provides long-lasting immunity. We studied the potency and safety of a live-attenuated vaccine in goats by detecting their cellular and humoral immune responses. Six goats were subcutaneously vaccinated with a live-attenuated PPRV vaccine according to the manufacturer's instructions, and two goats were kept in contact. Following vaccination, the goats were monitored daily, and we recorded their body temperature and clinical score. Heparinized blood and serum were collected for a serological analysis, and swab samples and EDTA blood were collected to detect the PPRV genome. The safety of the used PPRV vaccine was confirmed by the absence of PPR-related clinical signs, a negative pen-side test, a low virus genome load as detected with RT-qPCR on the vaccinated goats, and the lack horizontal transmission between the in-contact goats. The strong humoral and cellular immune responses detected in the vaccinated goats showed that the live-attenuated PPRV vaccine has a strong potency in goats. Therefore, live-attenuated vaccines against PPR can be used to control and eradicate PRR.

Molecular detection of mixed infection with peste des petits ruminants and retroviruses in Egyptian sheep and goats

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a contagious viral disease causing massive economic loss to animal industries in endemic countries including Egypt. Although a vaccine is available, coinfections can overwhelm the animal immune system and interfere with vaccine protection. Small ruminant retrovirus (SRR), including enzootic nasal tumor virus (ENTV) and Jaagsiekte sheep retrovirus (JSRV), is responsible for coinfections with PPR. Investigation of clinical cases in this study confirmed the presence of PPR virus by RT-PCR among four flocks. Sequence of five PPR amplicons revealed that all strains had 100% aa similarity and belonged to lineage IV. In addition, these strains had 98-99% nt similarity with all previous Egyptian and African strains from Sudan (MK371449) and Ethiopia (MK371449). Illumina sequencing of a representative sample showed a genome of 5753 nt compatible with ENT-2 virus with 98.42% similarity with the Chinese strain (MN564750.1). Four ORFs representing gag, pro, pol, and env genes were identified and annotated. Pro gene was highly stable while gag, pol, and env showed eight, two, and three aa differences with the reference strains. Sanger sequencing revealed that two amplicons were ENT-2 virus, and one was JSRV. ENT-2 sequences had 100% similarity with KU258870 and KU258871 reference strains while JSRV was 100% similar to the EF68031 reference strain. The phylogenetic tree showed a close relationship between the ENT of goats and the JSRV of sheep. This study highlights the complexity of PPR molecular epidemiology, with SRR that was not molecularly characterized previously in Egypt.

Modeling the environmental suitability for Bacillus anthracis in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

Bacillus anthracis is a gram-positive, rod-shaped and endospore-forming bacterium that causes anthrax, a deadly disease to livestock and, occasionally, to humans. The spores are extremely hardy and may remain viable for many years in soil. Previous studies have identified East Qinghai and neighbouring Gansu in northwest China as a potential source of anthrax infection. This study was carried out to identify conditions and areas in the Qinghai Lake basin that are environmentally suitable for B. anthracis distribution. Anthrax occurrence data from 2005-2016 and environmental variables were spatially modeled by a maximum entropy algorithm to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of B. anthracis. Principal Component Analysis and Variance Inflation Analysis were adopted to limit the number of environmental variables and minimize multicollinearity. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves. The three variables that contributed most to the suitability model for B. anthracis are a relatively high annual mean temperature of -2 to 0°C, (53%), soil type classified as; cambisols and kastanozems (35%), and a high human population density of 40 individuals per km2 (12%). The resulting distribution map identifies the permanently inhabited rim of the Qinghai Lake as highly suitable for B. anthracis. Our environmental suitability map and the identified variables provide the nature reserve managers and animal health authorities readily available information to devise both surveillance strategy and control strategy (administration of vaccine to livestock) in B. anthracis suitable regions to abate future epidemics.

Spatial modeling and ecological suitability of monkeypox disease in Southern Nigeria

The reemergence of monkeypoxvirus (MPXV) in 2017 after about 39 years of no reported cases in Nigeria, and the recent incidence in countries such as the United States of America, United Kingdom, Singapore, and Israel which have been reportedly linked with travelers from Africa, have heightened concern that MPXV may have emerged to occupy the vacant ecological and immunological niche created by the extinct smallpox virus. This study was carried out to identify environmental conditions and areas that are environmentally suitable (risky areas) for MPXV in southern Nigeria. One hundred and sixteen (116) spatially unique MPXV occurrence data from 2017–2021 and corresponding environmental variables were spatially modeled by a maximum entropy algorithm to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of the viral disease. A variance inflation analysis was adopted to limit the number of environmental variables and minimize multicollinearity. The five variables that contributed to the suitability model for MPXV disease are precipitation of driest quarter (47%), elevation (26%), human population density (17%), minimum temperature in December (7%), and maximum temperature in March (3%). For validation, our model had a high AUC value of 0.92 and standard deviation of 0.009 indicating that it had excellent ability to predict the suitable areas for monkeypox disease. Categorized risk classes across southern states was also identified. A total of eight states were predicted to be at high risk of monkeypox outbreak occurrence. These findings can guide policymakers in resources allocation and distribution to effectively implement targeted control measures for MPXV outbreaks in southern Nigeria.

Peste des Petits Ruminants in Central and Eastern Asia/West Eurasia: Epidemiological Situation and Status of Control and Eradication Activities after the First Phase of the PPR Global Eradication Programme (2017–2021)

Simple Summary

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of domestic and wild small ruminants. The disease is endemic to large parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia and causes severe socioeconomic losses, especially in developing countries reliant on small ruminant value chains. Currently, PPR is the only animal disease targeted by the Global Eradication Programme (PPR GEP), which aims to eradicate the disease by 2030. Following the end of the first five-year phase of the PPR GEP, the goal of this review is to provide an update on the status of the eradication progress in one of the nine regions targeted for coordinated action in the PPR Global Control and Eradication Strategy, denominated Central Asia/West Eurasia. In addition to the original nine countries, regional meetings and activities have involved four additional countries based on shared epidemiological features, which are also reviewed here. The considered area spans from Eastern Europe to East Asia and features remarkable variability in terms of both PPR presence and enacted control efforts. The achievements and constraints encountered at regional and national levels are discussed, thus providing useful data for tailoring the next steps of the eradication programme to the peculiarities of the region.

Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious infectious disease of small ruminants caused by peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV). PPR poses a significant threat to sheep and goat systems in over 65 endemic countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia. It is also responsible for devastating outbreaks in susceptible wildlife, threatening biodiversity. For these reasons, PPR is the target of the Global Eradication Programme (PPR GEP), launched in 2016, which is aimed at eradicating the disease by 2030. The end of the first five-year phase of the PPR GEP (2017–2021) provides an ideal opportunity to assess the status of the stepwise control and eradication process. This review analyses 13 countries belonging to Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia, and Central and East Asia. Substantial heterogeneity is apparent in terms of PPR presence and control strategies implemented by different countries. Within this region, one country is officially recognised as PPR-free, seven countries have never reported PPR, and two have had no outbreaks in the last five years. Therefore, there is real potential for countries in this region to move forward in a coordinated manner to secure official PPR freedom status and thus reap the trade and socioeconomic benefits of PPR eradication.

Urbanization and Habitat Characteristics Associated with the Occurrence of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Africa

As a highly contagious viral disease, peste des petits ruminants (PPR) can cause severe socio-economic impacts in developing countries due to its threat to sheep and goat production. Previous studies have identified several risk factors for PPR at the individual or herd level. However, only a few studies explored the impacts of landscape factors on PPR risk, particularly at a regional scale. Moreover, risk factor analyses in Africa usually focused on sub-Saharan Africa while neglecting northern Africa. Based on regional occurrence data during 2006–2018, we here explored and compared the risk factors, with a focus on factors related to ruminant habitats, for the occurrence of PPR in sub-Saharan and northern Africa. Our results demonstrated different risk factors in the two regions. Specifically, habitat fragmentation was negatively correlated with PPR occurrence in sub-Saharan Africa, while positively correlated with PPR occurrence in northern Africa. Moreover, urbanization showed a positive association with PPR occurrence in sub-Saharan Africa. Our study is among the first, to our knowledge, to compare the risk factors for PPR in sub-Saharan and northern Africa and contributes to a better understanding of the effects of habitat characteristics on PPR occurrence at a regional scale.

Predicting the possibility of African horse sickness (AHS) introduction into China using spatial risk analysis and habitat connectivity of Culicoides

African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out risk warnings of the AHS in China. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model AHS and Culicoides separately by using climate and non-climate variables. The least cost path (LCP) method was used to analyze the habitat connectivity of Culicoides with the reclassified land cover and altitude as cost factors. The models showed the mean area under the curve as 0.918 and 0.964 for AHS and Culicoides. The prediction result map shows that there is a high risk area in the southern part of China while the habitats of the Culicoides are connected to each other. Therefore, the risk of introducing AHS into China is high and control of the border area should be strengthened immediately.

Analysis and Sequence Alignment of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus ChinaSX2020

The peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) mainly infects goats and sheep and causes a highly contagious disease, PPR. Recently, a PPRV strain named ChinaSX2020 was isolated and confirmed following an indirect immunofluorescence assay and PCR using PPRV-specific antibody and primers, respectively. A sequencing of the ChinaSX2020 strain showed a genome length of 15,954 nucleotides. A phylogenetic tree analysis showed that the ChinaSX2020 genome was classified into lineage IV of the PRRV genotypes. The genome of the ChinaSX2020 strain was found to be closely related to PPRVs isolated in China between 2013 and 2014. These findings revealed that not a variety of PRRVs but similar PPRVs were continuously spreading and causing sporadic outbreaks in China.