Trade vulnerability assessment in the grain-importing countries: A case study of China

The PLOS ONE Staff. Correction: Trade vulnerability assessment in the grain-importing countries: A case study of China

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257987.].

Food security and nutritional vulnerability in Comoros: The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict

The Sustainable Development Goal 2 aims to eradicate hunger. However, many small island developing states (SIDS) face challenges in achieving this goal due to their reliance on the global market and susceptibility to crises. This paper focuses on Comoros, one of the least studied SIDS located in the Indian Ocean, to examine its food security and nutritional vulnerability. The findings reveal that Comoros experiences limited access to sufficient and nutritious diets, which are excessive in fat and deficient in key micronutrients. This situation is similar to other SIDS in the Pacific and the Caribbean, which also exhibit the convergence of the malnutrition triple burden. This paper further assesses the impact of changing food prices during the initial year of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on food security and nutrition in Comoros, serving as a case study for SIDS. Using microsimulations, we estimate the effects on food access, sufficiency, and adequacy at the household level. The results indicate a decline in food access and purchasing power for all households, particularly the poorer and rural. Additionally, food sufficiency has markedly decreased, leading to an additional 5,000 households (3.3% of all households) experiencing inadequate daily calorie intake. The study also highlights a reduction in the consumption of organ meats, fruits, and vegetables, resulting in decreased daily iron and folate intakes. This is particularly concerning given the high prevalence of anemia among women in Comoros and other SIDS. To address these challenges, policies promoting the consumption of fresh, nutrient-rich foods with low fat content are crucial to mitigate the malnutrition triple burden and curb the increasing trend of non-communicable diseases in these countries.

Vulnerability assessment of food imports-Conceptual framework and empirical application to the case of Switzerland

The world's food supply is becoming increasingly vulnerable because of rising political and climatic crises. To identify food supply vulnerabilities at an early stage, this paper proposes a multifactorial and standardized import vulnerability index (IVI). The IVI encompasses (i) an exporter vulnerability index (EVI) consisting of four exporter-specific factors and (ii) a product vulnerability index (PVI) consisting of three product-specific factors. We applied a robust principal component analysis to derive weights to combine these individual factors into a standardized IVI. The IVI was applied to food import-dependent Switzerland from 2014 to 2019 as an empirical case study. The results showed that a large share of Swiss food imports mainly originated from neighboring countries, indicating a very low to moderate EVI. Regarding the PVI, only product groups that were imported from a small number of countries (e.g., oilseeds) or that showed a low self-sufficiency ratio (e.g., coffee) or high price volatility (e.g., meat) exhibited a high value. Moreover, the findings demonstrate that the IVI showed neither large fluctuations nor a decreasing or increasing trend. With regular updates, the proposed indicator can become a valuable monitoring tool for food supply security.

Risk Assessment of China Rapeseed Supply Chain and Policy Suggestions

Rapeseed, as the most important oil crop in the world, not only affects national food security but also affects energy security and environmental security. It is very important to conduct a risk assessment of China's rapeseed supply chain and put forward suggestions to construct a safe, effective, and accessible supply chain. In order to accurately evaluate the safety of the rapeseed supply chain from 2010 to 2020, we applied fuzzy multiconnection theory and analytic hierarchy process model (AHP). A comprehensive risk assessment model for the rapeseed supply chain with two primary indicators and 10 secondary indicators was constructed. By establishing the rapeseed risk evaluation model, we quantitatively analyzed the risk of China's rapeseed supply chain. The domestic risk of production is still high, and the international risk under the high import dependence is alarming. We put forward risk prevention and countermeasures for China's rapeseed supply chain. The results show that China has a large demand for rapeseed products, but the increase in China production is limited and the import from other countries is unstable. The proposed suggestions are designed to optimize and enhance the stability of the rapeseed product's supply chain. It is recommended to continue to consolidate and deepen the cooperation with traditional trading partners such as Germany, Spain, the United States, and Brazil; expand other import sources to build a more diversified and efficient rapeseed product import network and extend the supply chain of rapeseed products. This research can be a basis for making decisions for promoting the sustainable and efficient development of the rapeseed supply chain.

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Food Security in China and Its Obstacle Factors

China's food security has attracted global attention as the various drivers of its instability and uncertainty have intensified. This study developed a new framework for food security evaluation in China by analyzing its availability, distribution, utilization, vulnerability, sustainability, and regulation. The entropy weight method (EWM) and the matter-element extension model (MEEM) were combined to examine China's food security status between 2001 and 2020. Additionally, an obstacle degree model (ODM) was used to investigate the key factors functioning as obstacles to food security. The results show that China's overall food security improved greatly but experienced a slight downward trend in 2003. The main obstacles initially entailed grain distribution but then spread to vulnerability- and sustainability-related issues. Ultimately, the key factors restricting China's food security were the amount of fertilizer application per unit sown area (AFA) and the grain self-sufficiency rate (GSR). The next 40 years could be the most critical period for ensuring China's food security, which incorporates demographic, climate change, and resource shortage factors. China appears to be implementing its national strategies through sustainable farmland use and agricultural technology innovation to facilitate the high-quality development of its grain industries and strengthen its food security. This study provides an overall picture of China's food security and can serve as a reference for those concerned with China's future national security.

Characterizing the Structural Evolution of Cereal Trade Networks in the Belt and Road Regions: A Network Analysis Approach

Cereal trade is essential for economic and commercial cooperation among countries along the "Belt and Road" (BRI). It helps ensure food security and contributes to building a community of interests and destinies for the BRI countries. Based on the UN Comtrade database, this study, using a network analysis approach, investigates the structural characteristics and spatiotemporal dynamics of cereal trade networks among the "Belt and Road" countries. Results show that: (1) The cereal trade among the BRI countries has formed well-connected and complex trade networks, and the "Belt and Road" initiative has significantly promoted cereal trade networks among the BRI countries. (2) The backbone structures of cereal trade networks along the BRI are in geographical proximity. India, Russia, and Ukraine are the most important trading partners and absolute core nodes in the trade networks, influencing the entire cereal trade networks. (3) The BRI cereal trade networks exhibit significant core-periphery structures, with considerable power asymmetries between the countries reflecting food supply and demand differences. In general, the BRI cereal trade networks have developed from relatively diversified to polarized. Supply chains in the cereal trade network are dominated by a few large countries and are fragile, with weak resilience and low resistance to risk. Therefore, governments should continue to strengthen regional cooperation, optimize cereal trade network structure, enhance their reserve capacity, and build a stronger system to guarantee food security and prevent risk. All these measures will support the food security of the "Belt and Road" countries.

Research on Global Grain Trade Network Pattern and Its Driving Factors

Trading systems are essential in promoting global food security. With the growing proportion of global food consumption obtained through international trade, the global food trade pattern has become increasingly complex over recent years. This study constructed a weighted global grain network using the trade data of 196 countries in 2000 and 2018 to explore the structure and evolution based on the complex network theory. We established that the global grain network was scale-free. There was significant heterogeneity among nodes, and the heterogeneity of the out-degree was greater than that of the in-degree. The global grain network has a significant core-periphery structure, with the United States, Japan, Mexico, Egypt, South Korea, and Colombia as the core countries. Thereafter, by applying the quadratic assignment procedure model to explore the driving factors of the global grain network, we established that geographical distance had a positive impact on the food trade patterns in 2000 and 2018. This differs from the classical gravity model theory. Furthermore, grain trade had significant “boundary effects”; economic gaps, resource endowment, and regional free trade agreements had a positive impact on the evolution of the grain trade network, whereas cultural similarity and political differences had a negative impact on the grain trade network pattern.