Anthrax outbreak investigation in Tengwe, Mashonaland West Province, Zimbabwe, 2022

Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics.

RESULTS

The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Molecular characterization of an outbreak-involved Bacillus anthracis strain confirms the spillover of anthrax from West Africa

BACKGROUND

Anthrax, a zoonotic disease caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, remains a major global public health concern, especially in countries with limited resources. Sierra Leone, a West African country historically plagued by anthrax, has almost been out of report on this disease in recent decades. In this study, we described a large-scale anthrax outbreak affecting both animals and humans and attempted to characterize the pathogen using molecular techniques.

METHODS

The causative agent of the animal outbreak in Port Loko District, Sierra Leone, between March and May 2022 was identified using the nanopore sequencing technique. A nationwide active surveillance was implemented from May 2022 to June 2023 to monitor the occurrence of anthrax-specific symptoms in humans. Suspected cases were subsequently verified using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Full-genome sequencing was accomplished by combining long-read and short-read sequencing methods. Subsequent phylogenetic analysis was performed based on the full-chromosome single nucleotide polymorphisms.

RESULTS

The outbreak in Port Loko District, Sierra Leone, led to the death of 233 animals between March 26th and May 16th, 2022. We ruled out the initial suspicion of Anaplasma species and successfully identified B. anthracis as the causative agent of the outbreak. As a result of the government's prompt response, out of the 49 suspected human cases identified during the one-year active surveillance, only 6 human cases tested positive, all within the first month after the official declaration of the outbreak. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that the BaSL2022 isolate responsible for the outbreak was positioned in the A.Br.153 clade within the TransEuroAsian group of B. anthracis.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully identified a large-scale anthrax outbreak in Sierra Leone. The causative isolate of B. anthracis, BaSL2022, phylogenetically bridged other lineages in A.Br.153 clade and neighboring genetic groups, A.Br.144 and A.Br.148, eventually confirming the spillover of anthrax from West Africa. Given the wide dissemination of B. anthracis spores, it is highly advisable to effectively monitor the potential reoccurrence of anthrax outbreaks and to launch campaigns to improve public awareness regarding anthrax in Sierra Leone.