Evolution of HIV-1 within untreated individuals and at the population scale in Uganda

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994-2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011-2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

Optimization of genetic distance threshold for inferring the CRF01_AE molecular network based on next-generation sequencing

Introduction

HIV molecular network based on genetic distance (GD) has been extensively utilized. However, the GD threshold for the non-B subtype differs from that of subtype B. This study aimed to optimize the GD threshold for inferring the CRF01_AE molecular network.

Methods

Next-generation sequencing data of partial CRF01_AE pol sequences were obtained for 59 samples from 12 transmission pairs enrolled from a high-risk cohort during 2009 and 2014. The paired GD was calculated using the Tamura-Nei 93 model to infer a GD threshold range for HIV molecular networks.

Results

2,019 CRF01_AE pol sequences and information on recent HIV infection (RHI) from newly diagnosed individuals in Shenyang from 2016 to 2019 were collected to construct molecular networks to assess the ability of the inferred GD thresholds to predict recent transmission events. When HIV transmission occurs within a span of 1-4 years, the mean paired GD between the sequences of the donor and recipient within the same transmission pair were as follow: 0.008, 0.011, 0.013, and 0.023 substitutions/site. Using these four GD thresholds, it was found that 98.9%, 96.0%, 88.2%, and 40.4% of all randomly paired GD values from 12 transmission pairs were correctly identified as originating from the same transmission pairs. In the real world, as the GD threshold increased from 0.001 to 0.02 substitutions/site, the proportion of RHI within the molecular network gradually increased from 16.6% to 92.3%. Meanwhile, the proportion of links with RHI gradually decreased from 87.0% to 48.2%. The two curves intersected at a GD of 0.008 substitutions/site.

Discussion

A suitable range of GD thresholds, 0.008-0.013 substitutions/site, was identified to infer the CRF01_AE molecular transmission network and identify HIV transmission events that occurred within the past three years. This finding provides valuable data for selecting an appropriate GD thresholds in constructing molecular networks for non-B subtypes.

Increasing intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity despite declining HIV incidence in Uganda

HIV incidence has been declining in Africa with scale-up of HIV interventions. However, there is limited data on HIV evolutionary trends in African populations with waning epidemics. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a twenty-five-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from persons living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994 to 2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011 to 2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was estimated using the Shannon diversity index and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral sub-groups, including by migration status. 9,931 HIV sequences were available from 4,999 PLHIV, including 3,060 and 1,939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (p<0.001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (p<0.001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by more than four-fold. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While p24 intra-subtype genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, diversity and divergence of gp41 increased through 2017. Inter- and intra-subtype viral diversity increased across all population sub-groups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics in declining African HIV epidemics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies targeting HIV: Progress and challenges

Anti-HIV broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) offer a novel approach to treating, preventing, or curing HIV. Pre-clinical models and clinical trials involving the passive transfer of bNAbs have demonstrated that they can control viremia and potentially serve as alternatives or complement antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, antibody decay, persistent latent reservoirs, and resistance impede bNAb treatment. This review discusses recent advancements and obstacles in applying bNAbs and proposes strategies to enhance their therapeutic potential. These strategies include multi-epitope targeting, antibody half-life extension, combining with current and newer antiretrovirals, and sustained antibody secretion.

Accelerating antiviral drug discovery: lessons from COVID-19

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a wave of rapid and collaborative drug discovery efforts took place in academia and industry, culminating in several therapeutics being discovered, approved and deployed in a 2-year time frame. This article summarizes the collective experience of several pharmaceutical companies and academic collaborations that were active in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antiviral discovery. We outline our opinions and experiences on key stages in the small-molecule drug discovery process: target selection, medicinal chemistry, antiviral assays, animal efficacy and attempts to pre-empt resistance. We propose strategies that could accelerate future efforts and argue that a key bottleneck is the lack of quality chemical probes around understudied viral targets, which would serve as a starting point for drug discovery. Considering the small size of the viral proteome, comprehensively building an arsenal of probes for proteins in viruses of pandemic concern is a worthwhile and tractable challenge for the community.

Adaptation to HLA-associated immune pressure over the course of HIV infection and in circulating HIV-1 strains

Adaptation to human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-associated immune pressure represents a major driver of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolution at both the individual and population level. To date, there has been limited exploration of the impact of the initial cellular immune response in driving viral adaptation, the dynamics of these changes during infection and their effect on circulating transmitting viruses at the population level. Capturing detailed virological and immunological data from acute and early HIV infection is challenging as this commonly precedes the diagnosis of HIV infection, potentially by many years. In addition, rapid initiation of antiretroviral treatment following a diagnosis is the standard of care, and central to global efforts towards HIV elimination. Yet, acute untreated infection is the critical period in which the diversity of proviral reservoirs is first established within individuals, and associated with greater risk of onward transmissions in a population. Characterizing the viral adaptations evident in the earliest phases of infection, coinciding with the initial cellular immune responses is therefore relevant to understanding which changes are of greatest impact to HIV evolution at the population level. In this study, we utilized three separate cohorts to examine the initial CD8+ T cell immune response to HIV (cross-sectional acute infection cohort), track HIV evolution in response to CD8+ T cell-mediated immunity over time (longitudinal chronic infection cohort) and translate the impact of HLA-driven HIV evolution to the population level (cross-sectional HIV sequence data spanning 30 years). Using next generation viral sequencing and enzyme-linked immunospot interferon-gamma recall responses to peptides representing HLA class I-specific HIV T cell targets, we observed that CD8+ T cell responses can select viral adaptations prior to full antibody seroconversion. Using the longitudinal cohort, we uncover that viral adaptations have the propensity to be retained over time in a non-selective immune environment, which reflects the increasing proportion of pre-adapted HIV strains within the Western Australian population over an approximate 30-year period.

Intrahost evolution of the HIV-2 capsid correlates with progression to AIDS

HIV-2 infection will progress to AIDS in most patients without treatment, albeit at approximately half the rate of HIV-1 infection. HIV-2 capsid (p26) amino acid polymorphisms are associated with lower viral loads and enhanced processing of T cell epitopes, which may lead to protective Gag-specific T cell responses common in slower progressors. Lower virus evolutionary rates, and positive selection on conserved residues in HIV-2 env have been associated with slower progression to AIDS. In this study we analysed 369 heterochronous HIV-2 p26 sequences from 12 participants with a median age of 30 years at enrolment. CD4% change over time was used to stratify participants into relative faster and slower progressor groups. We analysed p26 sequence diversity evolution, measured site-specific selection pressures and evolutionary rates, and determined if these evolutionary parameters were associated with progression status. Faster progressors had lower CD4% and faster CD4% decline rates. Median pairwise sequence diversity was higher in faster progressors (5.7x10-3 versus 1.4x10-3 base substitutions per site, P<0.001). p26 evolved under negative selection in both groups (dN/dS=0.12). Median virus evolutionary rates were higher in faster than slower progressors - synonymous rates: 4.6x10-3 vs. 2.3x10-3; and nonsynonymous rates: 6.9x10-4 vs. 2.7x10-4 substitutions/site/year, respectively. Virus evolutionary rates correlated negatively with CD4% change rates (ρ = -0.8, P=0.02), but not CD4% level. The signature amino acid at p26 positions 6, 12 and 119 differed between faster (6A, 12I, 119A) and slower (6G, 12V, 119P) progressors. These amino acid positions clustered near to the TRIM5α/p26 hexamer interface surface. p26 evolutionary rates were associated with progression to AIDS and were mostly driven by synonymous substitutions. Nonsynonymous evolutionary rates were an order of magnitude lower than synonymous rates, with limited amino acid sequence evolution over time within hosts. These results indicate HIV-2 p26 may be an attractive therapeutic target.

Large Evolutionary Rate Heterogeneity among and within HIV-1 Subtypes and CRFs

HIV-1 is a fast-evolving, genetically diverse virus presently classified into several groups and subtypes. The virus evolves rapidly because of an error-prone polymerase, high rates of recombination, and selection in response to the host immune system and clinical management of the infection. The rate of evolution is also influenced by the rate of virus spread in a population and nature of the outbreak, among other factors. HIV-1 evolution is thus driven by a range of complex genetic, social, and epidemiological factors that complicates disease management and prevention. Here, we quantify the evolutionary (substitution) rate heterogeneity among major HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants by analyzing the largest collection of HIV-1 genetic data spanning the widest possible geographical (100 countries) and temporal (1981–2019) spread. We show that HIV-1 substitution rates vary substantially, sometimes by several folds, both across the virus genome and between major subtypes and recombinants, but also within a subtype. Across subtypes, rates ranged 3.5-fold from 1.34 × 10⁻³ to 4.72 × 10⁻³ in env and 2.3-fold from 0.95 × 10⁻³ to 2.18 × 10⁻³ substitutions site⁻¹ year⁻¹ in pol. Within the subtype, 3-fold rate variation was observed in env in different human populations. It is possible that HIV-1 lineages in different parts of the world are operating under different selection pressures leading to substantial rate heterogeneity within and between subtypes. We further highlight how such rate heterogeneity can complicate HIV-1 phylodynamic studies, specifically, inferences on epidemiological linkage of transmission clusters based on genetic distance or phylogenetic data, and can mislead estimates about the timing of HIV-1 lineages.

SARS-CoV-2 within-host diversity and transmission

Extensive global sampling and sequencing of the pandemic virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have enabled researchers to monitor its spread and to identify concerning new variants. Two important determinants of variant spread are how frequently they arise within individuals and how likely they are to be transmitted. To characterize within-host diversity and transmission, we deep-sequenced 1313 clinical samples from the United Kingdom. SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by low levels of within-host diversity when viral loads are high and by a narrow bottleneck at transmission. Most variants are either lost or occasionally fixed at the point of transmission, with minimal persistence of shared diversity, patterns that are readily observable on the phylogenetic tree. Our results suggest that transmission-enhancing and/or immune-escape SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to arise infrequently but could spread rapidly if successfully transmitted.

Evolution of respiratory syncytial virus genotype BA in Kilifi, Kenya, 15 years on

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is recognised as a leading cause of severe acute respiratory disease and deaths among infants and vulnerable adults. Clinical RSV isolates can be divided into several known genotypes. RSV genotype BA, characterised by a 60-nucleotide duplication in the G glycoprotein gene, emerged in 1999 and quickly disseminated globally replacing other RSV group B genotypes. Continual molecular epidemiology is critical to understand the evolutionary processes maintaining the success of the BA viruses. We analysed 735 G gene sequences from samples collected from paediatric patients in Kilifi, Kenya, between 2003 and 2017. The virus population comprised of several genetically distinct variants (n = 56) co-circulating within and between epidemics. In addition, there was consistent seasonal fluctuations in relative genetic diversity. Amino acid changes increasingly accumulated over the surveillance period including two residues (N178S and Q180R) that mapped to monoclonal antibody 2D10 epitopes, as well as addition of putative N-glycosylation sequons. Further, switching and toggling of amino acids within and between epidemics was observed. On a global phylogeny, the BA viruses from different countries form geographically isolated clusters suggesting substantial localized variants. This study offers insights into longitudinal population dynamics of a globally endemic RSV genotype within a discrete location.

Persistence of HIV transmission clusters among people who inject drugs

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the duration of HIV transmission clusters.

DESIGN

Fifty-four individuals newly infected at enrollment in the ALIVE cohort were included, all of whom had sequences at an intake visit (T1) and from a second (T2) and/or a third (T3) follow-up visit, median 2.9 and 5.4 years later, respectively.

METHODS

Sequences were generated using the 454 DNA sequencing platform for portions of HIV pol and env (HXB2 positions 2717-3230; 7941-8264). Genetic distances were calculated using tn93 and sequences were clustered over a range of thresholds (1--5%) using HIV-TRACE. Analyses were performed separately for individuals with pol sequences for T1 + T2 (n = 40, 'Set 1') and T1 + T3 (n = 25; 'Set 2'), and env sequences for T1 + T2 (n = 47, 'Set 1'), and T1 + T3 (n = 30; 'Set 2').

RESULTS

For pol, with one exception, a single cluster contained more than 75% of samples at all thresholds, and cluster composition was at least 90% concordant between time points/thresholds. For env, two major clusters (A and B) were observed at T1 and T2/T3, although cluster composition concordance between time points/thresholds was low (<60%) at lower thresholds for both sets 1 and 2. In addition, several individuals were included in clusters at T2/T3, although not at T1.

CONCLUSION

Caution should be used in applying a single threshold in population studies where seroconversion dates are unknown. However, the retention of some clusters even after 5 + years is evidence for the robustness of the clustering approach in general.

HIV-1 p24Gag adaptation to modern and archaic HLA-allele frequency differences in ethnic groups contributes to viral subtype diversification

Pathogen-driven selection and past interbreeding with archaic human lineages have resulted in differences in human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-allele frequencies between modern human populations. Whether or not this variation affects pathogen subtype diversification is unknown. Here we show a strong positive correlation between ethnic diversity in African countries and both human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 p24gag and subtype diversity. We demonstrate that ethnic HLA-allele differences between populations have influenced HIV-1 subtype diversification as the virus adapted to escape common antiviral immune responses. The evolution of HIV Subtype B (HIV-B), which does not appear to be indigenous to Africa, is strongly affected by immune responses associated with Eurasian HLA variants acquired through adaptive introgression from Neanderthals and Denisovans. Furthermore, we show that the increasing and disproportionate number of HIV-infections among African Americans in the USA drive HIV-B evolution towards an Africa-centric HIV-1 state. Similar adaptation of other pathogens to HLA variants common in affected populations is likely.

A de novo approach to inferring within-host fitness effects during untreated HIV-1 infection

In the absence of effective antiviral therapy, HIV-1 evolves in response to the within-host environment, of which the immune system is an important aspect. During the earliest stages of infection, this process of evolution is very rapid, driven by a small number of CTL escape mutations. As the infection progresses, immune escape variants evolve under reduced magnitudes of selection, while competition between an increasing number of polymorphic alleles (i.e., clonal interference) makes it difficult to quantify the magnitude of selection acting upon specific variant alleles. To tackle this complex problem, we developed a novel multi-locus inference method to evaluate the role of selection during the chronic stage of within-host infection. We applied this method to targeted sequence data from the p24 and gp41 regions of HIV-1 collected from 34 patients with long-term untreated HIV-1 infection. We identify a broad distribution of beneficial fitness effects during infection, with a small number of variants evolving under strong selection and very many variants evolving under weaker selection. The uniquely large number of infections analysed granted a previously unparalleled statistical power to identify loci at which selection could be inferred to act with statistical confidence. Our model makes no prior assumptions about the nature of alleles under selection, such that any synonymous or non-synonymous variant may be inferred to evolve under selection. However, the majority of variants inferred with confidence to be under selection were non-synonymous in nature, and in most cases were have previously been associated with either CTL escape in p24 or neutralising antibody escape in gp41. We also identified a putative new CTL escape site (residue 286 in gag), and a region of gp41 (including residues 644, 648, 655 in env) likely to be associated with immune escape. Sites inferred to be under selection in multiple hosts have high within-host and between-host diversity although not all sites with high between-host diversity were inferred to be under selection at the within-host level. Our identification of selection at sites associated with resistance to broadly neutralising antibodies (bNAbs) highlights the need to fully understand the role of selection in untreated individuals when designing bNAb based therapies.

Ethical challenges in pathogen sequencing: a systematic scoping review

Background: Going forward, the routine implementation of genomic surveillance activities and outbreak investigation is to be expected. We sought to systematically identify the emerging ethical challenges; and to systematically assess the gaps in ethical frameworks or thinking and identify where further work is needed to solve practical challenges. Methods: We systematically searched indexed academic literature from PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science from 2000 to April 2019 for peer-reviewed articles that substantively engaged in discussion of ethical issues in the use of pathogen genome sequencing technologies for diagnostic, surveillance and outbreak investigation. Results: 28 articles were identified; nine United States, five United Kingdom, five The Netherlands, three Canada, two Switzerland, one Australia, two South Africa, and one Italy. Eight articles were specifically about the use of sequencing in HIV. Eleven were not specific to a particular disease. Results were organized into four themes: tensions between public and private interests; difficulties with translation from research to clinical and public health practice; the importance of community trust and support; equity and global partnerships; and the importance of context. Conclusion: While pathogen sequencing has the potential to be transformative for public health, there are a number of key ethical issues that must be addressed, particularly around the conditions of use for pathogen sequence data. Ethical standards should be informed by public values, and further empirical work investigating stakeholders' views are required. Development in the field should also be under-pinned by a strong commitment to values of justice, in particular global health equity.

HIV-1 Subtype Distribution and Diversity Over 18 Years in Rakai, Uganda

The Rakai Community Cohort Study in south central Uganda has surveyed people aged 15-49 since 1994. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was introduced in 2004. HIV p24 and gp41 subtype distribution and viral diversity were studied from blood samples collected at three surveys in 1994-1995, 2002-2003, and 2008-2009, which were compared with a new survey round from 2011 to 2012. These included 1364 HIV+ individuals. For both p24 and gp41 domains, the genetic diversity within subtypes A and D was significantly increasing in the pre-ART era and decreased between the last two survey rounds in the ART era (p < .01). This study suggests that despite ongoing mixing of viral subtypes, an association with the introduction of ART to a reduction of intra-subtype viral genomic diversity may be occurring, which can be explored in ongoing studies.

Linking influenza virus evolution within and between human hosts

Influenza viruses rapidly diversify within individual human infections. Several recent studies have deep-sequenced clinical influenza infections to identify viral variation within hosts, but it remains unclear how within-host mutations fare at the between-host scale. Here, we compare the genetic variation of H3N2 influenza within and between hosts to link viral evolutionary dynamics across scales. Synonymous sites evolve at similar rates at both scales, indicating that global evolution at these putatively neutral sites results from the accumulation of within-host variation. However, nonsynonymous mutations are depleted between hosts compared to within hosts, suggesting that selection purges many of the protein-altering changes that arise within hosts. The exception is at antigenic sites, where selection detectably favors nonsynonymous mutations at the global scale, but not within hosts. These results suggest that selection against deleterious mutations and selection for antigenic change are the main forces that act on within-host variants of influenza virus as they transmit and circulate between hosts.

Deep sequence analysis of HIV adaptation following vertical transmission reveals the impact of immune pressure on the evolution of HIV

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can adapt to an individual’s T cell immune response via genomic mutations that affect antigen recognition and impact disease outcome. These viral adaptations are specific to the host’s human leucocyte antigen (HLA) alleles, as these molecules determine which peptides are presented to T cells. As HLA molecules are highly polymorphic at the population level, horizontal transmission events are most commonly between HLA-mismatched donor/recipient pairs, representing new immune selection environments for the transmitted virus. In this study, we utilised a deep sequencing approach to determine the HIV quasispecies in 26 mother-to-child transmission pairs where the potential for founder viruses to be pre-adapted is high due to the pairs being haplo-identical at HLA loci. This scenario allowed the assessment of specific HIV adaptations following transmission in either a non-selective immune environment, due to recipient HLA mismatched to original selecting HLA, or a selective immune environment, mediated by matched donor/recipient HLA. We show that the pattern of reversion or fixation of HIV adaptations following transmission provides insight into the replicative cost, and likely compensatory networks, associated with specific adaptations in vivo. Furthermore, although transmitted viruses were commonly heavily pre-adapted to the child’s HLA genotype, we found evidence of de novo post-transmission adaptation, representing new epitopes targeted by the child’s T cell response. High-resolution analysis of HIV adaptation is relevant when considering vaccine and cure strategies for individuals exposed to adapted viruses via transmission or reactivated from reservoirs.

Highly mutable pathogens utilise genetic variations within T cell epitopes as a mechanism of immune escape (viral adaptation). The diversity of the human leucocyte antigen (HLA) molecules that present viral targets to T cells in human populations partially protects against rapid population-level accumulation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) adaptations through horizontal transmissions. In contrast, vertical transmissions occur between haplo-identical mother/child pairs, and potentially include adaptive changes through father-mother-child transmission, representing a pathway to complete pre-adaptation to HLA alleles in child hosts over only two transmission events. We utilised next-generation sequencing to examine HIV evolution in the unique setting of vertical HIV transmission. We predict the in vivo replicative cost and immune benefit of specific HIV adaptations that could be used to inform vaccine design and cure strategies to combat viral immune adaptation.

Distinct rates and patterns of spread of the major HIV-1 subtypes in Central and East Africa

Since the ignition of the HIV-1 group M pandemic in the beginning of the 20th century, group M lineages have spread heterogeneously throughout the world. Subtype C spread rapidly through sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the dominant HIV lineage worldwide. Yet the epidemiological and evolutionary circumstances that contributed to its epidemiological expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 346 novel pol sequences from the DRC to compare the evolutionary dynamics of the main HIV-1 lineages, subtypes A1, C and D. Our results place the origins of subtype C in the 1950s in Mbuji-Mayi, the mining city of southern DRC, while subtypes A1 and D emerged in the capital city of Kinshasa, and subtypes H and J in the less accessible port city of Matadi. Following a 15-year period of local transmission in southern DRC, we find that subtype C spread at least three-fold faster than other subtypes circulating in Central and East Africa. In conclusion, our results shed light on the origins of HIV-1 main lineages and suggest that socio-historical rather than evolutionary factors may have determined the epidemiological fate of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.

Inconsistent temporal patterns of genetic variation of HCV among high-risk subjects may impact inference of transmission networks

Hepatitis-C Virus (HCV) sequences are often used to establish networks of people who inject drugs (PWID). However, the degree to which within-host evolutionary dynamics affect those inferences has not been carefully studied. Here, we analyzed 702 longitudinally-sampled HCV E1 sequences from 88 HCV+ people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Baltimore Before and After Acute Study of Hepatitis (BBAASH) cohort. Individuals were tested for HCV RNA over multiple visits to the clinic, and the HCV E1 gene was sequenced for HCV+ samples. Genetic clustering was performed on the full set of sequences using a 3% genetic distance threshold to define epidemiological linkage. Maximum-likelihood (ML) phylogenies were inferred to assess evolutionary relationships. We found 22 clusters containing sequences sampled over five or more years (long-term clusters, LTC), of which 17 had >1 subject. In six of the multi-subject LTC, one subject had a sequence sampled >3 years earlier or later than the next-closest subject in the cluster (time-gap LTC). ML trees showed that, in three of the time-gap LTC, two subjects had identical sequences despite 7-10 years separating the sampling times. In four of the time-gap LTC for whom additional data were available, the subject with the later detected shared variant had both different variants and visits with no detectable HCV RNA (RNA-) prior to the appearance of the shared variant. In the subject with the earlier detection of the shared variant, different variants and RNA- visits were also detected in multiple cases subsequent to appearance of the shared variant. Complex patterns of shared viral variation among PWID reflect on-going re-infection, multiple transmission partners, and/or inconsistent detection of viral variants. Our results suggest that transmission events are currently underestimated by analysis of sequences at a single point in time.

Link between the numbers of particles and variants founding new HIV-1 infections depends on the timing of transmission

Understanding which HIV-1 variants are most likely to be transmitted is important for vaccine design and predicting virus evolution. Since most infections are founded by single variants, it has been suggested that selection at transmission has a key role in governing which variants are transmitted. We show that the composition of the viral population within the donor at the time of transmission is also important. To support this argument, we developed a probabilistic model describing HIV-1 transmission in an untreated population, and parameterised the model using both within-host next generation sequencing data and population-level epidemiological data on heterosexual transmission. The most basic HIV-1 transmission models cannot explain simultaneously the low probability of transmission and the non-negligible proportion of infections founded by multiple variants. In our model, transmission can only occur when environmental conditions are appropriate (e.g. abrasions are present in the genital tract of the potential recipient), allowing these observations to be reconciled. As well as reproducing features of transmission in real populations, our model demonstrates that, contrary to expectation, there is not a simple link between the number of viral variants and the number of viral particles founding each new infection. These quantities depend on the timing of transmission, and infections can be founded with small numbers of variants yet large numbers of particles. Including selection, or a bias towards early transmission (e.g. due to treatment), acts to enhance this conclusion. In addition, we find that infections initiated by multiple variants are most likely to have derived from donors with intermediate set-point viral loads, and not from individuals with high set-point viral loads as might be expected. We therefore emphasise the importance of considering viral diversity in donors, and the timings of transmissions, when trying to discern the complex factors governing single or multiple variant transmission.