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Wells CR, Pandey A, Fitzpatrick MC, Crystal WS, Singer BH, Moghadas SM, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2022; 14:100304. [PMID: 35036981 PMCID: PMC8743228 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Numerous countries have imposed strict travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a large socioeconomic burden. The long quarantines that have been applied to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy. METHODS We developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0-14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as "sufficient." FINDINGS We present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases. INTERPRETATION For nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts. FUNDING EasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families' endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).
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Affiliation(s)
- Chad R. Wells
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520, USA
| | - Abhishek Pandey
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520, USA
| | - Meagan C. Fitzpatrick
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520, USA
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, 21201, USA
| | - William S. Crystal
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520, USA
| | - Burton H. Singer
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, P.O. Box 100009, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA
| | - Seyed M. Moghadas
- Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Alison P. Galvani
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06525, USA
| | - Jeffrey P. Townsend
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06525, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, 06510, USA
- Program in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06511, USA
- Program in Microbiology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06511, USA
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Wells CR, Pandey A, Fitzpatrick MC, Crystal WS, Singer BH, Moghadas SM, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2021:2021.04.25.21256082. [PMID: 34729563 PMCID: PMC8562544 DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.25.21256082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Numerous countries imposed strict travel restrictions, contributing to the large socioeconomic burden during the COVID-19 pandemic. The long quarantines that apply to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy. METHODS We developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0-14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as "sufficient." FINDINGS We present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases. INTERPRETATION For nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts. FUNDING EasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families' endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).
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Affiliation(s)
- Chad R. Wells
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA
| | - Abhishek Pandey
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA
| | - Meagan C. Fitzpatrick
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, 21201, USA
| | - William S. Crystal
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA
| | - Burton H. Singer
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, P.O. Box 100009, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA
| | | | - Alison P. Galvani
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06520, USA
- Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06525, USA
| | - Jeffrey P. Townsend
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06525, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut 06510, USA
- Program in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, USA
- Program in Microbiology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, USA
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Boggild AK, Geduld J, Libman M, Yansouni CP, McCarthy AE, Hajek J, Ghesquiere W, Mirzanejad Y, Vincelette J, Kuhn S, Plourde PJ, Chakrabarti S, Greenaway C, Hamer DH, Kain KC. Spectrum of illness in migrants to Canada: sentinel surveillance through CanTravNet. J Travel Med 2019; 26:5159662. [PMID: 30395252 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/tay117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2018] [Revised: 10/29/2018] [Accepted: 11/02/2018] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Due to ongoing political instability and conflict in many parts of the world, migrants are increasingly seeking asylum and refuge in Canada. METHODS We examined demographic and travel correlates of illnesses among migrants to Canada to establish a detailed epidemiologic framework of this population for Canadian practitioners. Data on ill-returned Canadian travellers presenting to a CanTravNet site between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2015 were analyzed. RESULTS During the study period, 2415 ill travellers and migrants presented to a CanTravNet site, and of those, 519 (21.5%) travelled for the purpose of migration. Sub-Saharan Africa (n = 160, 30.8%), southeast Asia (n = 84, 16.2%) and south central Asia (n = 75, 14.5%) were the most common source regions for migrants, while the top specific source countries, of 98 represented, were the Philippines (n = 45, 8.7%), China (n = 36, 6.9%) and Vietnam (n = 31, 6.0%). Compared with non-migrant travellers, migrants were more likely to have a pre-existing immunocompromising medical condition, such as HIV or diabetes mellitus (P < 0.0001), and to require inpatient management of their illness (P < 0.0001). Diagnoses such as tuberculosis (n = 263, 50.7%), hepatitis B and C (n = 78, 15%) and HIV (n = 11, 2.1%) were over-represented in the migrant population compared with non-migrant travellers (P < 0.0001). Most cases of tuberculosis in the migrant population (n = 263) were latent (82% [n = 216]); only 18% (n = 47) were active. CONCLUSIONS Compared with non-migrant travellers, migrants were more likely to present with a communicable infectious disease, such as tuberculosis, potentially complicated by an underlying immunosuppressing condition such as HIV. These differences highlight the divergent healthcare needs in the migrant population, and underscore the importance of surveillance programmes to understand their burden of illness. Intake programming should be adequately resourced to accommodate the medical needs of this vulnerable population of new Canadians.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea K Boggild
- Tropical Disease Unit, Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University Health Network and the University of Toronto, Toronto ON, Canada.,Public Health Ontario Laboratories, Public Health Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Jennifer Geduld
- Office of Border and Travel Health, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Michael Libman
- The J.D. MacLean Centre for Tropical Diseases, Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Cedric P Yansouni
- The J.D. MacLean Centre for Tropical Diseases, Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Anne E McCarthy
- Tropical Medicine and International Health Clinic, Division of Infectious Diseases, Ottawa Hospital and the University of Ottawa, Ottawa ON, Canada
| | - Jan Hajek
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver British Columbia, Canada
| | - Wayne Ghesquiere
- Infectious Diseases, Vancouver Island Health Authority, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Yazdan Mirzanejad
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver British Columbia, Canada.,Fraser Health, Surrey, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jean Vincelette
- Hôpital Saint-Luc du CHUM, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Susan Kuhn
- Section of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Departments of Pediatrics and Medicine, Alberta Children's Hospital and the University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Pierre J Plourde
- Travel Health and Tropical Medicine Services, Population and Public Health Program, Winnipeg Regional Health Authority, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Sumontra Chakrabarti
- Tropical Disease Unit, Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University Health Network and the University of Toronto, Toronto ON, Canada.,Trillium Health Partners, Mississauga, ON, Canada
| | - Christina Greenaway
- The J.D. MacLean Centre for Tropical Diseases, Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.,Division of Infectious Diseases, Jewish General Hospital, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Davidson H Hamer
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Kevin C Kain
- Tropical Disease Unit, Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University Health Network and the University of Toronto, Toronto ON, Canada.,SAR Laboratories, Sandra Rotman Centre for Global Health, Toronto, ON Canada
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Hansen L, Maidment L, Ahmad R. Early observations on the health of Syrian refugees in Canada. CANADA COMMUNICABLE DISEASE REPORT = RELEVE DES MALADIES TRANSMISSIBLES AU CANADA 2016; 42:S8-S10. [PMID: 29770038 PMCID: PMC5868581 DOI: 10.14745/ccdr.v42is2a03] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Between November 4, 2015 and February 29, 2016, a total of 26,166 refugees came to Canada. Of those, only two (0.01%) were found to have signs of a notifiable disease in the Immigration Medical Examination and these individuals were referred to public health for follow-up. Most refugees - 24,640 (94.17%) - arrived by government-coordinated charter flights and underwent enhanced screening. Upon arrival in Canada, 274 refugees (1.11%) were assessed by Quarantine Officers for signs of a potential communicable disease (such as fever) and 10 (0.04%) were referred to hospital. Paramedics onsite at the airport assessed 1,212 refugees (4.92%). Fifty-four (0.22%) were transferred to hospital and many of these were known to require urgent medical care. Provincial and local public health authorities and community networks have been instrumental in providing immediate and longer-term health care to arriving refugees. The two most immediate care needs were catch-up immunizations and dental care. Arriving in Canada at the height of the influenza season, a number of refugees experienced time-limited upper respiratory infections. When referring refugees to Canadian authorities, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) advised that the Syrian refugee population may be expected to have high medical needs. These were not necessarily identified beforehand and may include diabetes, developmental disabilities, conflict-related injuries or mental health issues. These health care needs of Syrians will be identified and addressed as they integrate into the local health care systems. The arrival of Syrian refugees in Canada has not resulted in any urgent public health concerns or need for public health intervention. Canada's experience to date indicates that the arrival of Syrian refugees in this country can be managed in a way that will integrate them into the health care system without increased risk to public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Hansen
- Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON
| | - L Maidment
- Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON
| | - R Ahmad
- Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON
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Health considerations in the Syrian refugee resettlement process in Canada. Can Commun Dis Rep 2016; 42:S3-S7. [PMID: 29770037 DOI: 10.14745/ccdr.v42is2a02] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Canada has responded to the humanitarian emergency in Syria by committing to welcome 25,000 Syrian refugees by early 2016. This has been a complex undertaking which required coordination between international organizations, such as the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and federal government departments, including Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), the Department of National Defence (DND) and the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). Within and across Canada, this initiative has also required the collaboration of provincial and municipal governments, non-governmental organizations and volunteers, including private sponsors, to enable planning for the transition of Syrian refugees into a new life in Canada. In planning for the reception of Syrian refugees, government agencies did not anticipate major infectious disease threats. However, early findings from Europe and the experience of health care providers who serve other refugee populations suggested that this population may have other unmet health needs and untreated conditions, due to their experience of displacement over the past three to four years. With this in mind, a great deal of planning has been undertaken to address potential challenges to public health. Social services providers and medical interpreters have been enlisted to help Syrians access the health care system and explain their needs. Communities of practice within Canada have responded, both in providing care and in developing and updating tools and resources to support a culturally sensitive and evidence-based approach to screening and meeting the health needs of the Syrian refugees.
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