Needs-Based Planning for Substance Use Treatment Systems: The New Generation of Principles, Methods, and Models

Estimating the Prevalence of Mental and Substance Use Disorders: A Systematic Approach to Triangulating Available Data to Inform Health Systems Planning

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of specific mental and substance use disorders (MSUDs), by age and sex, as a first step toward informing needs-based health systems planning by decision-makers.

METHODS

We developed a conceptual framework and a systematic methodology for combining available data sources to yield prevalence estimates for specific MSUDs. Data sources used included published, peer-reviewed literature from Canada and comparable countries, Canadian population survey data, and health administrative data from British Columbia. Several well-established methodologies including systematic review and meta-analyses of published prevalence estimates, modelling of age- and sex-specific distributions, and the Global Burden of Disease severity distribution model were incorporated in a novel mode of triangulation.

RESULTS

Using this novel approach, we obtained prevalence estimates for 10 MSUDs for British Columbia, Canada, as well as prevalence distributions across age groups, by sex.

CONCLUSION

Obtaining reliable assessments of disorder prevalence and severity is a useful first step toward rationally estimating service need and plan health services. We propose a methodology to leverage existing information to obtain robust estimates in a timely manner and with sufficient granularity to, after adjusting for comorbidity and matching with severity-specific service bundles, inform need-based planning efforts for adult (15 years and older) mental health and substance use services.

The early impact of COVID-19 on the incidence, prevalence, and severity of alcohol use and other drugs: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

The aim of this paper was to examine the early impact of COVID-19 on substance use to assess implications for planning substance use treatment and support systems.

METHOD

A systematic review of literature published up to March 2021 was conducted to summarize changes in prevalence, incidence, and severity of substance use associated with COVID-19 and the accompanying public health measures, including lockdown, stay-at-home orders, and social distancing.

RESULTS

We identified 53 papers describing changes to substance use at the population level. The majority of papers described changes related to alcohol use and most relied on self-reported measures of consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared with pre-pandemic use. There was less evidence to support changes in non-alcohol substance use. In general, risky pre-pandemic alcohol use, caregiving responsibilities, stress, depression, anxiety, and current treatment for a mental disorder were found to be associated with increased substance use.

CONCLUSION

This review provides preliminary data on changes in substance use, indicating that certain segments of the population increased their alcohol use early on in the COVID-19 pandemic and may be at greater risk of harm and in need of additional services. There is a need for additional population-level information on substance use to inform evidence-based rapid responses from a treatment system perspective.

Development of a Needs-Based Planning Model to Estimate Required Capacity of a Substance Use Treatment System

OBJECTIVE

Substance use services and supports have traditionally been funded without the benefit of a comprehensive, quantitative planning model closely aligned with population needs. This article describes the methodology used to develop and refine key features of such a model, gives an overview of the resulting Canadian prototype, and offers examples and lessons learned in pilot work.

METHOD

The need for treatment was defined according to five categories of problem severity derived from national survey data and anticipated levels of help-seeking estimated from a narrative synthesis of international literature. A pan-Canadian Delphi procedure was used to allocate this help-seeking population across an agreed-upon set of treatment service categories, which included three levels each of withdrawal management, community, and residential treatment services. Projections of need and required service capacity for Canadian health planning regions were derived using synthetic estimation by age and gender. The model and gap analyses were piloted in nine regions.

RESULTS

National distribution of need was estimated as Tier 1: 80.7%; Tier 2: 10.4%; Tier 3: 6.1%; Tier 4: 2.6%; and Tier 5: 0.2%. Pilot work of the full estimation protocol, including gap analysis, showed the results triangulated with other indicators of need and were useful for local planning.

CONCLUSIONS

Lessons learned from pilot testing were identified, including challenges with the model itself and those associated with its implementation. The process of estimation developed in this Canadian prototype, and the specifics of the model itself, can be adapted to other jurisdictions and contexts.