Estimating the Prevalence of Mental and Substance Use Disorders: A Systematic Approach to Triangulating Available Data to Inform Health Systems Planning

Heterogeneity in the Course of Suicidal Ideation and its Relation to Suicide Attempts in First-Episode Psychosis: A 5-Year Prospective Study

OBJECTIVES

Although the risk of suicide is high in first-episode psychosis (FEP), little is known about the course of suicidal ideation and its relation to suicide attempts. Therefore, we aimed to identify 5-year trajectories of suicidal ideation and associated factors in FEP and compare how suicide attempts were distributed across these identified trajectories.

METHOD

This 5-year prospective study assessed suicidal ideation, suicide attempts and potentially associated factors through research interviews, chart review and coroners' reports in 382 FEP patients [mean age = 23.53 (SD = 3.61)] admitted to 2 5-year early psychosis services in Montreal, Canada. Trajectories were identified using a semiparametric mixture model, and associated factors with multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

Three suicidal ideation trajectories were identified: low and decreasing (n = 325, 85.08%); early decline, then increasing (n = 30, 7.85%), and persistent suicidal ideation (n = 27, 7.07%). Suicidal ideation prior to admission (OR = 2.85, 95% CI, 1.23 to 6.63, P < 0.05) and cocaine use disorder (OR = 6.78, 95% CI, 1.08 to 42.75, P < 0.05) were associated with the early decline, then increasing suicidal ideation trajectory. Persons with prior suicide ideation (OR = 4.33, 95% CI, 1.66 to 11.29, P < 0.05) and attempts (OR = 8.18, 95% CI, 2.39 to 27.97, P < 0.001) and alcohol use disorder (OR = 3.63, 95% CI, 1.4 to 9.42, P < 0.05) were more likely to belong to the persistent suicidal ideation trajectory, and to attempt suicide during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights heterogeneity in the course of suicidal ideation over 5 years and the importance of ongoing assessment of suicidal risk in FEP patients, particularly for patients who persistently report suicidal ideation, as they are likelier to engage in suicide attempts. Patients with factors associated with increasing or persistent suicidal ideation trajectories should be targeted for suicide prevention interventions from the early phase of follow-up. Given the small number of persons in these trajectories and the wide CIs for some factors, larger studies are however needed to further characterize who belongs in each group.

Using novel methodology to estimate the prevalence of mental disorders in British Columbia, Canada

PURPOSE

A needs-based model of health systems planning uses a systematic estimate of service needs for a given population. Our objective was to derive annual prevalence estimates of specific mental disorders in the adult population of British Columbia, Canada and use a novel triangulation approach encompassing multiple data sources and stratifying these estimates by age, sex, and severity to inform Ministry partners, who commissioned this work.

METHODS

We performed systematic literature reviews and subsequent meta-analyses to derive an annual prevalence estimate for each mental disorder. We then generated age- and sex-specific estimates by triangulating published epidemiological studies, routinely collected province-wide health administrative data, and nationally representative health survey data sources. The age- and sex-specific estimates were further stratified by severity using the Global Burden of Disease severity distributions and published literature.

RESULTS

Anxiety disorders had the highest annual prevalence estimates (6.93%), followed by depressive disorders (6.42%). All other mental disorders had an annual prevalence of less than 1%. Prevalence estimates were consistently higher in younger age groups. Depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and eating disorders were higher in women, while estimates for bipolar disorders, schizophrenia, and ADHD were slightly higher in men in younger age groups.

CONCLUSION

We generated robust annual prevalence estimates stratified by age, sex, and severity using a triangulation approach. Variation by age, sex, and severity implies that these factors need to be considered when planning for mental health services. Our approach is replicable and can be used as a model for needs-based planning in other jurisdictions.

Estimating prevalence of child and youth mental disorder and mental health-related service contacts: a comparison of survey data and linked administrative health data

AIMS

Prevalence estimates of child and youth mental disorder and mental health-related service contacts are needed for policy formulation, research, advocacy and resource allocation. Our aim is to compare prevalence estimates of child and youth mental disorder and mental health-related service contacts derived from general population survey data v. linked administrative health data.

METHODS

Provincially representative 2014 Ontario Child Health Study data were linked to administrative health records for 5563 children and youth aged 4-17 in Ontario. Emotional disorders (mood and anxiety) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder were assessed using a standardised diagnostic interview in the survey and using diagnostic codes in administrative health data. Physician-based mental health-related service contacts were assessed using parent self-reports from the survey and administrative data related to mental health-related diagnostic codes. Prevalence estimates were calculated and compared based on one-sample z-tests and ratios of survey data to administrative data-based prevalence. Sensitivity, specificity and agreement between classifications were compared using κ. Prevalence estimates were calculated by age, sex and geography sub-groups and consistent group differences across data source were counted.

RESULTS

Disorder prevalence and service contact estimates were significantly higher in survey data in all cases, except for mood disorder. Ratios of survey data to administrative data-based prevalence varied, ranging from 0.80 (mood) to 11.01 (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder). Specificity was high (0.98-1.00), sensitivity was low (0.07-0.41) and agreement ranged from slight (κ = 0.13) to moderate (κ = 0.46). Out of 18 sub-group difference comparisons, half were non-significant in either data source. In the remaining nine comparisons, the only significant differences between groups that were consistent across data source were for sex-based differences (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and service contacts). There were no consistent age- or geography-based differences in prevalence across data sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that conclusions drawn about prevalence, service contacts and sub-group differences in these estimates are dependent on data source. Further research is needed to understand who and what is being captured by each source. Researchers should conduct data linkage where possible to access and compare multiple sources of information.

Prevalence of Mental Health Disorders Among Immigrant, Refugee, and Nonimmigrant Children and Youth in British Columbia, Canada

Importance

There remains limited understanding of population-level patterns of mental disorder prevalence for first- and second-generation immigrant and refugee children and youth and how such patterns may vary across mental disorders.

Objective

To examine the diagnostic prevalence of conduct, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and mood/anxiety disorders in immigrant, refugee, and nonimmigrant children and youth in British Columbia, Canada.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective, population-level cohort study examined linked health administrative records of children and youth in British Columbia (birth to age 19 years) spanning 2 decades (1996-2016). Physician billings, hospitalizations, and drug dispensations were linked to immigration records to estimate time-in-British Columbia-adjusted prevalence of mental disorder diagnosis among children and youth from immigrant or refugee backgrounds compared with those from nonimmigrant backgrounds. Analyses were conducted from August 2020 to November 2021.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The diagnostic prevalence of conduct, ADHD, and mood/anxiety disorders were the main outcomes. Results were stratified by migration category (immigrant, refugee, nonimmigrant), generation status (first- and second-generation), age, and sex.

Results

A total of 470 464 children and youth in British Columbia were included in the study (227 217 [48.3%] female). Nonimmigrant children and youth represented 65.5% of the total study population (307 902 individuals). Among those who migrated, 142 011 (87.8%) were first- or second-generation immigrants, and 19 686 (12.2%) were first- or second-generation refugees. Diagnostic prevalence of mental disorders varied by migration category, generation status, age, and sex. Children and youth from immigrant and refugee backgrounds (both first- and second-generation), compared with nonimmigrant youth, generally had a lower prevalence of conduct disorder (eg, age 6-12 years: first-generation immigrant, 2.72% [95% CI, 2.56%-2.90%] vs nonimmigrant, 7.03% [95% CI, 6.93%-7.13%]), ADHD (eg, age 6-12 years: first-generation immigrant, 4.30% [95% CI, 4.10%-4.51%] vs nonimmigrant, 9.20% [95% CI, 9.08%-9.31%]), and mood/anxiety disorders (eg, age 13-19 years: first-generation immigrant, 11.07% [95% CI, 10.80%-11.36%] vs nonimmigrant, 24.54% [95% CI, 24.34%-24.76%]). Among immigrant children and youth, second-generation children and youth generally showed higher prevalence of conduct, ADHD, and mood/anxiety disorders than first-generation children and youth (eg, ADHD among second-generation immigrants aged 6-12 years, 5.94% [95% CI, 5.75%-6.14%]; among first-generation immigrants aged 6-12 years, 4.30% [95% CI, 4.10%-4.51%]). Second-generation refugee children had the highest diagnostic prevalence estimates for mood/anxiety in the 3-to-5-year age range relative to first- and second-generation immigrant and nonimmigrant children (eg, second-generation refugee, 2.58% [95% CI, 2.27%-2.94%] vs second-generation immigrant, 1.78% [95% CI, 1.67%-1.89%]). Mental disorder diagnoses also varied by age and sex within immigrant, refugee, and nonimmigrant groups.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings show differences in diagnostic mental disorder prevalence among first- and second-generation immigrant and refugee children and youth relative to nonimmigrant children and youth. Further investigation is required into how cultural differences and barriers in accessing health services may be contributing to these differences.

Reading Between the Lines: A Pursuit of Estimating the Population Prevalence of Mental Illness Using Multiple Data Sources

Population-based prevalence estimates of mental illness are foundational to health service planning, strategic resource allocation, and the development and evaluation of public mental health policy. Generating valid, reliable, and context-specific population-level estimates is of utmost importance and can be achieved by combining various data sources. This pursuit benefits from the right combination of theory, applied statistics, and the conceptualization of available data sources as a collective rather than in isolation. We believe there is a need to read between the lines as theory, methodology, and context (i.e., strengths and limitations) are what determines the meaningfulness of a combined prevalence estimate. Currently lacking is a gold standard approach to combining estimates from multiple data sources. Here, we compare and contrast various approaches to combining data and introduce an idea that leverages the strengths of pre-existing individually linked population-based survey and health administrative data sources currently available in Canada.