Pediatric Milliman and Robertson length-of-stay criteria: are they realistic?

Hospital length of stay: A cross-specialty analysis and Beta-geometric model

BACKGROUND

The typical hospital Length of Stay (LOS) distribution is known to be right-skewed, to vary considerably across Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), and to contain markedly high values, in significant proportions. These very long stays are often considered outliers, and thin-tailed statistical distributions are assumed. However, resource consumption and planning occur at the level of medical specialty departments covering multiple DRGs, and when considered at this decision-making scale, extreme LOS values represent a significant component of the distribution of LOS (the right tail) that determines many of its statistical properties.

OBJECTIVE

To build actionable statistical models of LOS for resource planning at the level of healthcare units.

METHODS

Through a study of 46, 364 electronic health records over four medical specialty departments (Pediatrics, Obstetrics/Gynecology, Surgery, and Rehabilitation Medicine) in the largest hospital in Thailand (Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok), we show that the distribution of LOS exhibits a tail behavior that is consistent with a subexponential distribution. We analyze some empirical properties of such a distribution that are of relevance to cost and resource planning, notably the concentration of resource consumption among a minority of admissions/patients, an increasing residual LOS, where the longer a patient has been admitted, the longer they would be expected to remain admitted, and a slow convergence of the Law of Large Numbers, making empirical estimates of moments (e.g. mean, variance) unreliable.

RESULTS

We propose a novel Beta-Geometric model that shows a good fit with observed data and reproduces these empirical properties of LOS. Finally, we use our findings to make practical recommendations regarding the pricing and management of LOS.

Providers' knowledge of, attitude to and practice of emergency contraception

OBJECTIVES

Barriers to widespread use of hormonal emergency contraceptives (EC), such as lack of knowledge and prejudices held by health-care providers, still exist today. This study was initiated to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes and prejudices of family-planning (FP) providers.

METHODS

This survey was conducted in FP units of primary-health-care centers in Istanbul. A total of 180 providers were interviewed in 80 units to whom a questionnaire was administered by face-to-face technique.

RESULTS

One-hundred and fifty-two of the providers stated that they had heard of EC. The correct timing and dose interval of EC were known by 50% of them. The participants held the belief that EC caused abortion (39.4%), and that it was harmful for the fetus (31.1%). Other prejudices were the possibility of increased unprotected sexual intercourse (78.9%) and a tendency for men to give up condom use (75%); female providers were more prejudiced concerning these statements. The providers' tendency towards the provision of counseling was significantly related to their prejudices (p = 0.011, p = 0.033) and to the application rate (p = 0.000). Conclusion Providers need more detailed information about EC. During FP training courses, the providers should be encouraged towards counseling EC which would increase the application rate of the users and decrease their own prejudices.

Emergency contraception provision: a survey of Michigan physicians from five medical specialties

OBJECTIVE

Despite the controversy over expanding delivery options for emergency contraceptive pills (ECP), little is known about physicians' attitudes toward over-the-counter (OTC) provision of ECP, and prior research on physicians' practices often has focused on a single specialty. This study examined the attitudes and practices regarding advance provision and OTC status of ECP among physicians in five medical specialties likely to encounter patients in need of ECP.

METHODS

A mail survey of a random sample of 850 Michigan physicians in family/general medicine, internal medicine, obstetrics/gynecology, pediatrics, and emergency medicine was conducted. Respondents' ECP-related attitudes and practices were assessed, and differences by physician characteristics were examined using chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Two hundred seventy-one physicians responded to the survey (response rate = 32%), with 42% of them favoring OTC provision of ECP and 40% opposing it. Half of respondents never routinely initiated discussions about ECP with their sexually active, female patients, and 77% of respondents did not routinely offer advance prescriptions. After adjusting for other factors, including medical specialty, older physicians ( > or =50 years) were significantly more likely than their younger counterparts to support OTC provision of ECP (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.7-4.9) or offer advance prescriptions (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1-5.8). Physicians with a specialty in obstetrics/gynecology were 3.5 times (95% CI 1.3-9.8) as likely as physicians in family/general medicine to offer advance prescriptions for ECP, and female physicians were 2.5 (95% CI 1.05-6.0) times as likely as male physicians to offer advance prescriptions. Graduation from a medical school within the United States and practicing in a private practice were marginally associated with a lower likelihood of supporting OTC status of ECP (OR = 0.5, 95% CI: 0.2-1.0; and OR equals; 0.6, 95% CI 0.3-1.1, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Certain physician characteristics were significantly associated with their ECP-related attitudes and practices. The majority of physicians surveyed in this study did not offer advance prescriptions for ECP, and few had initiated discussions on ECP with patients, which may pose critical barriers to patients' timely access.

Transforming a Payer-Provider Relationship from Conflict to Collaboration

The current relationship between payers and providers is often adversarial. The growth of managed care has fostered very little cooperation between the payer and provider, even though both are working toward improved patient outcomes. This article describes the process by which a payer and provider were able to transform a contentious relationship into a collaborative patient-centered program. The program demonstrates that through the sharing of retrospective utilization data, improved clinical and financial outcomes can be achieved.

A Robustified Modeling Approach to Analyze Pediatric Length of Stay

PURPOSE

Length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of the cost of pediatric hospitalizations, but the guidelines developed so far are not rigorously evidence-based. This study demonstrates a robust gamma mixed regression approach to analyze the positively skewed LOS variable, which has implications for future studies of pediatric health care management.

METHODS

The robustified approach is applied to analyze hospital discharge data on childhood gastroenteritis in Western Australia (n=514). The model accounts for demographic characteristics and co-morbidities of the patients, as well as the dependency of LOS outcomes nested within the 58 hospitals in the State. The method is compared with the standard linear mixed regression with trimming of extreme observations.

RESULTS

For the empirical application, the linear mixed regression results are sensitive to the magnitude of trimming. The identified significant factors from the robust regression model, namely infection, failure to thrive, and iron deficiency anemia are resistant to high-LOS outliers.

CONCLUSIONS

Robust gamma mixed regression appears to be a suitable alternative to analyze the clustered and positively skewed pediatric LOS, without transforming and trimming the data arbitrarily.

Emergency contraception: the politics of post-coital contraception

The literature and events related to the politicization of emergency contraceptive pills (ECPs) in the United States is reviewed. The basis of opposition to the regimen, rooted in the mode of action of ECPs, the confusion with mifepristone, and the challenges this presents for ECP advocates is also discussed. Legislative actions that impact availability of ECPs are described, as well as efforts to increase access and availability through innovate programs, legislation, and changes in medical practice. Recommendations for future research, service delivery, and public policy are also presented.

Reimbursement denial and reversal by health plans at a university hospital

PURPOSE

Denial and downgrading of reimbursement for hospital days are two strategies utilized by health plans to maintain profitability. The goal of this study was to describe patterns of discounted reimbursement at a university hospital.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of consecutive per diem patients hospitalized in 1999. We defined a discounted day as a day fully denied or downgraded and a reversal day as a day reimbursed at a higher level after appeal. The study outcomes included the probability of a discounted day and the probability of a discounted day to be later reversed. Covariance logistic regression was used to compare these outcomes by plan and physician specialty after adjusting for age, sex, race, length of stay, and diagnosis. Correlations with plan characteristics were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of 59,265 hospital days, 6074 days (10.2%) were initially denied or downgraded. On appeal, 1755 discounted days (28.9%) were reversed. The percentage of days discounted per plan ranged from 1.2% to 18.8% (P <0.001), whereas the percentage of discounted days that were later reversed ranged from 23.2% to 85.3% (P <0.001). The qualitative magnitude of these associations and statistical significance were unchanged in adjusted models. Strong correlations were found between the adjusted odds ratio for a discounted day and net profit margin (R = 0.81) and medical loss ratio (R = -0.77).

CONCLUSION

Denials and downgrades are frequent, with marked variation by health plan. More profitable plans had higher denial and discount rates. Evidence-based standards for denials and downgrades are needed to maintain optimal patient care and the fiscal health of hospitals and health plans.

Length of stay, conditional length of stay, and prolonged stay in pediatric asthma

OBJECTIVE

To understand differences in length of stay for asthma patients between New York State and Pennsylvania across children's and general hospitals in order to better guide policy.

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

All pediatric admissions for asthma in the states of Pennsylvania and New York using claims data obtained from each state for the years 1996-1998, n = 38,310.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective cohort design to model length of stay (LOS), the probability of prolonged stay, conditional length of stay (CLOS or the LOS after stay is prolonged), and the probability of readmission, controlling for patient factors, state, location and hospital type. ANALYTIC METHODS: Logit models were used to estimate the probability of prolonged stay and readmission. The LOS and the CLOS were estimated with Cox regression. Model variables included comorbidities, income, race, distance from hospital, and insurance type. Prolonged stay was based on a Hollander-Proschan "New-Worse-Than-Used" test, corresponding to a three-day stay.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The LOS was longer in New York than Pennsylvania, and the probabilities of prolonged stay and readmission were much higher in New York than Pennsylvania. However, once an admission was prolonged, there were no differences in CLOS between states (when readmissions were not added to the LOS calculation). In both states, children's hospitals and general hospitals had similar adjusted LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

Management of asthma appears more efficient in Pennsylvania than New York: Less severe patients are discharged faster in Pennsylvania than New York; once discharged, patients are less likely to be readmitted in Pennsylvania than New York. However, once a stay is prolonged, there is little difference between New York and Pennsylvania, suggesting medical care for severely ill patients is similar across states. Differences between children's and general hospitals were small as compared to differences between states. We conclude that policy initiatives in New York, and other states, should focus their efforts on improving the care provided to less severe patients in order to help reduce overall length of stay.

Analyzing hospital length of stay: mean or median regression?

BACKGROUND

Length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity and health care utilization, but its empirical distribution is often positively skewed.

OBJECTIVE

This study reviews the mean and median regression approaches for analyzing LOS, which have implications for service planning, resource allocation, and bed utilization.

METHODS

The two approaches are applied to analyze hospital discharge data on cesarean delivery. Both models adjust for patient and health-related characteristics, and for the dependency of LOS outcomes nested within hospitals. The estimation methods are also compared in a simulation study.

RESULTS

For the empirical application, the mean regression results are somewhat sensitive to the magnitude of trimming chosen. The identified factors from median regression, namely number of diagnoses, number of procedures, and payment classification, are robust to high-LOS outliers. The simulation experiment shows that median regression can outperform mean regression even when the response variable is moderately positively skewed.

CONCLUSION

Median regression appears to be a suitable alternative to analyze the clustered and positively skewed LOS, without transforming and trimming the data arbitrarily.

Physicians' roles in coordinating care of hospitalized children

The care of hospitalized children has become increasingly complex and intense and often involves multiple physicians beyond the traditional primary care attending physician. Pediatric and adult subspecialists and surgeons, teaching attending physicians, and hospitalists may all participate in the care of hospitalized children. This report summarizes the responsibilities of the primary care physician, attending physician, and other involved physicians to ensure that children receive appropriate, coordinated, and comprehensive inpatient care that is delivered within the context of their medical home and is appropriately continued on an outpatient basis.

Utilization management: issues, effects, and future prospects

Utilization management encompasses a diverse set of activities designed to influence the use of health care services and thereby constrain health care resource consumption. Utilization management, which has become one of the most widely used cost-containment approaches, has engendered debate and controversy. Physicians have been outspoken critics of utilization management because it has limited their clinical autonomy and has contributed to an intolerable administrative burden. Insurance carriers, managed care plans, and third-party payers have defended the use of utilization management as an imperfect-but necessary-practice that is needed to reduce consumption of unnecessary or inappropriate health care services. This review examines the operation and effects of three widely used utilization management procedures: prospective utilization review, case management, and physician gatekeeping programs. In addition, it explores the future role of utilization management in the health care system and outlines a set of principles that we believe should be used to guide the development of utilization management strategies in the future.