Methodology for assessing herd immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 Incidence Proportion as a Function of Regional Testing Strategy, Vaccination Coverage, and Vaccine Type

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has become a serious challenge for humanity almost everywhere globally. Despite active vaccination around the world, the incidence proportion in different countries varies significantly as of May 2022. The reason may be a combination of demographic, immunological, and epidemiological factors. The purpose of this study was to analyze possible relationships between COVID-19 incidence proportion in the population and the types of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines used in different countries globally, taking into account demographic and epidemiological factors. Materials and methods: An initial database was created of demographic and immunoepidemiological information about the COVID-19 situation in 104 countries collected from published official sources and repository data. The baseline included, for each country, population size and density; SARS-CoV-2 testing coverage; vaccination coverage; incidence proportion; and a list of vaccines that were used, including their relative share among all vaccinations. Subsequently, the initial data set was stratified by population and vaccination coverage. The final data set was subjected to statistical processing both in general and taking into account population testing coverage. Results: After formation of the final data set (including 53 countries), it turned out that reported COVID-19 case numbers correlated most strongly with testing coverage and the proportions of vaccine types used, specifically, mRNA (V1); vector (V2); peptide/protein (V3); and whole-virion/inactivated (V4). Due to the fact that an inverse correlation was found between 'reported COVID-19 case numbers' with V2, V3, and V4, these three vaccine types were also combined into one analytic group, 'non-mRNA group' vaccines (Vnmg). When the relationship between vaccine type and incidence proportion was examined, minimum incidence proportion was noted at V1:Vnmg ratios (%:%) from 0:100 to 30:70. Maximum incidence proportion was seen with V1:Vnmg from 80:20 to 100:0. On the other hand, we have shown that the number of reported COVID-19 cases in different countries largely depends on testing coverage. To offset this factor, countries with low and extremely high levels of testing were excluded from the data set; it was then confirmed that the largest number of reported COVID-19 cases occurred in countries with a dominance of V1 vaccines. The fewest reported cases were seen in countries with a dominance of Vnmg vaccines. Conclusion: In this paper, we have shown for the first time that the level of reported COVID-19 incidence proportion depends not only on SARS-CoV-2 testing and vaccination coverage, which is quite logical, but probably also on the vaccine types used. With the same vaccination level and testing coverage, those countries that predominantly use vector and whole-virion vaccines feature incidence proportion that is significantly lower than countries that predominantly use mRNA vaccines.

SARS-CoV-2 collective immunity among the population of the Republic of Armenia

Background. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a substantial global health crisis, unparalleled in world history. Infection dynamics can have specific characteristics in different countries due to social, economic, climatic, or geographic factors. Aim: to study features of SARS-CoV-2 collective immunity among the Armenian population. Materials and methods. A cross-sectional, randomized study of collective immunity was carried out according to a program developed by Rospotrebnadzor and the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute, taking into account WHO recommendations. The study was approved by the ethics committees of the National Center for Infectious Diseases (Armenia) and the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute (Russia). A volunteer cohort was formed (N = 6057), randomized by age and region. The studys analysis included: shares and distributions of antibodies (Abs) to nucleocapsid (Nc) antigen (Ag) and receptor binding domain (RBD) S-1 Ag in the cohort; and quantitative determination of these Abs by ELISA. During the survey, a history of vaccination was indicated by 4395 people. Results. Overall seropositivity formed in the whole cohort (by April 14, 2022) was 98.6% (95% CI: 98.198.7). It did not depend on age, place of residence, or occupation. When quantifying Nc and RBD Abs, the proportions of volunteers with Nc Ab levels of 117 BAU/ml and RBD Ab levels of 22.6220 BAU/ml were the smallest, amounting to 6.9% (95% CI: 6.27.5) and 20.4% (95% CI: 19.421.4), respectively. With increasing serum concentrations (Nc 667 BAU/ml, RBD 450 BAU/ml), the proportions of individuals with the corresponding levels were 20.2% for Nc (95% CI: 19.221.3) and 54.2% for RBD (95% CI: 52.955.5). Vaccination coverage was 72.6% (95% CI: 71.573.7). The most frequently used were Sinopharm/BIBP (32.4%), AZD1222 (22.3%), and Gam-COVID-Vac (21%). The remaining vaccines (CoronaVac, mRNA-1273, BNT162b2, CoviVac) were used by 24.3% of vaccinated individuals. When summing vaccines by platform, it was found that: vector vaccines were used in 40.34% (95% CI: 33.5742.39) of cases; whole-virion vaccines were used in 26.83% (95% CI: 24.7632.20); and vector vaccines were used in 6.33% (95% CI: 4.848.91). Conclusion. The epidemic situation in Armenia by April 2022 was characterized by a high level of collective immunity, independent of age or regional factors. Vector and whole-virion vaccines have been used most widely.

FOURTH ETHICAL COMMENTS TOWARDS COVID-19 (three year later) – Trust and Faith / social and moral profile of vaccination

The purpose of the work is the registration of objective criterion of vaccination vulnerability against COVID-19 and identify the response spectrum for formation the distrust to vaccination in society Method - analysis and review of the data for creation vaccines, vaccination and sociological survey data Results - indentified of social and moral factors vulnerabilityof the vaccination and anti-vaccination lobby Outcomes - trust in vaccination based on the principles of awareness, independence, faith in scientific and moral potential of the medecine

SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity of the Kyrgyz population in 2021

In the fight against coronavirus infection, control of the immune response is of decisive importance, an important component of which is the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is formed either naturally or artificially through vaccination. The purpose of this study was to assess the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Kyrgyzstan. A cross-sectional randomized study of seroprevalence was carried out according to a program developed by Rospotrebnadzor and the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute, taking into account WHO recommendations. The ethics committees of the Association of Preventive Medicine (Kyrgyzstan) and the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute (Russia) approved the study. Volunteers (9471) were recruited, representing 0.15% (95% CI 0.14-0.15) of the total population, randomized by age and region. Plasma antibodies (Abs) to the nucleocapsid antigen (Nag) were determined. In vaccinated individuals, Abs to the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain antigen (RBDag) were determined. Differences were considered statistically significant at p < 0.05. The SARS-CoV-2 Nag Ab seroprevalence was 48.7% (95% CI 47.7-49.7), with a maximum in the 60-69 age group [59.2% (95% CI 56.6-61.7)] and a minimum in group 1-17 years old [32.7% (95 CI: 29.4-36.1)]. The highest proportion of seropositive individuals was in the Naryn region [53.3% (95% CI 49.8-56.8)]. The lowest share was in Osh City [38.1% (95% CI 32.6-43.9)]. The maximum SARS-CoV-2 Nag seropositivity was found in the health-care sector [57.1% (95% CI 55.4-58.8)]; the minimum was seen among artists [38.6% (95% CI 26.0-52.4)]. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Nag seropositivity was 77.1% (95% CI 75.6-78.5). Vaccination with Sputnik V or Sinopharm produced comparable Ab seroprevalence. SARS-CoV-2 Nag seropositivity in the Kyrgyz population was 48.75% (95% CI 47.7-49.7), with the mass vaccination campaign undoubtedly benefitting the overall situation.

Longitudinal Randomized Cohort Study of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Seroprevalence in the St. Petersburg Population

Introduction. Since the detection of the first COVID-19 patient, 2 years have passed, during which more than 287,862,000 people have fallen ill globally, of which about 1.9% died. The implementation of SARS-CoV-2 control programs required efforts from almost all countries. An important direction in the fight against COVID-19 has been the formation of herd immunity, the main tool for managing the pandemic. Study goal. The aim of the study was to assess the seroprevalence of antibodies (Abs) to SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (Nc) and receptor binding domain (RBD) in the St. Petersburg population during the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. A longitudinal cohort randomized monitoring study of Ab seroprevalence (SARS-CoV-2 Nc, RBD) was organized and conducted according to a unified methodology developed by Rospotrebnadzor with the participation of the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute. For this purpose, a cohort was formed of 1000 volunteers who participated in all five stages of seromonitoring. The cohort was divided into seven age groups: 1−17; 18−29; 30−39; 40−49; 50−59; 60−69; 70; and older (70+) years. Seropositivity levels (Nc, RBD) were assessed by quantitative and qualitative enzyme immunoassays. During the second year of monitoring, some volunteers were vaccinated with the GamCOVIDVac (84%) or EpiVacCorona (11.6%) vaccines approved in Russia. Statistical processing was carried out using Excel 2010. Confidence intervals for shares and percentages (95% CI) were calculated using the method of A. Wald and J. Wolfowitz with adjustment (A. Agresti, B.A. Coull). The statistical significance of differences was calculated by z-test, using the appropriate online calculator (p < 0.05) unless indicated. Results. There was a trend toward an increase in Nc seropositivity in stages 1−3 of seromonitoring, with a decrease in stages 4−5 among children and adults. The share of RBD seropositive steadily increased during all five stages of seromonitoring. The most frequent finding was low anti-RBD Abs levels (22.6−220 BAU/mL). High Ab levels were recorded statistically significantly less frequently. Asymptomatic forms were observed in 84−88% of SARS-CoV-2 seropositive volunteers. By the fifth stage of monitoring, this indicator significantly decreased to 69.8% (95% CI: 66.1−73.4). The monitoring revealed a statistically significant increase in anti-RBD Abs alongside a statistically significant decrease in the proportion of Nc seropositives. This dynamic was especially characteristic of persons vaccinated with GamCOVIDVac. Conclusion. Prior to the use of specific vaccines, a seroprevalence of anti-Nc Abs was noted. After the introduction of the GamCOVIDVac vaccine in adults, a decrease in the level of anti-Nc Abs was noted due to an increase in the proportion of RBD seropositive persons.

Herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 among the population of the Republic of Belarus amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective was to investigate the SARS-CoV-2 collective immunity status of the population of Belarus within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. The work was carried out according to the methodology for assessing SARS-CoV-2 population immunity, developed by Rospotrebnadzor Russia and the Ministry of Health of Belarus with the participation of the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute, taking into account WHO recommendations. The Bioethics Committee of Belarus and the local ethics committee of the St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute approved the study. Selection of participants was carried out using a questionnaire method and online technology (internet, cloud server). Volunteers were randomized into seven age groups (years of age): 1–17; 18–29; 30–39; 40–49; 50–59; 60–69; and 70+. Regional randomization ensured proportional representation of volunteers from each region, and no more than 30 people were included from one enterprise. In accordance with manufacturer instructions, blood plasma samples were analyzed for: IgG antibodies (Abs) to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (Nc) using a quantitative ELISA test system; and IgG Abs to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 S (spike) surface glycoprotein using a qualitative ELISA test system. Statistical processing was carried out using Excel 2010 and other software. Statistical differences were designated as significant when p 0.05, unless otherwise indicated. Results. The level of seroprevalence, in terms of Abs to Nc among the Belarusian population, was 38.4% (95% CI 37.6–45.4). The highest Ab levels were found among individuals in older age groups (50-70+ years old). The lowest were found in children 1–17 years old and in young people 18–39 years old The distribution of seroprevalence across Belarusian regions was relatively homogeneous, with the exception of the Minsk Region, where a statistically significant decrease in the indicator was noted. In terms of profession, the largest share of seropositive individuals was found among transportation workers; the smallest was found in business. The moderate COVID-19 incidence has not led to a dramatic increase in the number of contacts. The base reproduction number (R0) was 1.3. In the Republic of Belarus, there was a moderate level of asymptomatic COVID-19 among seropositive individuals (45.3% [95% CI 44.0–46.7]). This form of infection was observed most often among children aged 1–17 years old (65.0% [95% CI 61.3–68.6]). In parallel with seroprevalence assessment, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was carried out. We used two vaccines: Gam-COVID-Vac (also known as Sputnik V, developed by Gamaleya National Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, Russia); and BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm, PRC). Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 was accompanied by an increase in the level of anti-RBD Abs (95% [95% CI 94.7–96.7]). Taking into account the vaccination of a subset of the population with BBIBP-CorV, the overall herd immunity, inferred from the analyzed indicators (presence of anti-Nc or anti-RBD Abs), was 47.1% (95% CI 46.3–48.0). Conclusion. COVID-19 in Belarus was characterized by a moderately pronounced course of the epidemic process. The threshold level of herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been reached, as a result of which the conditions for progression of the epidemic remain.