Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

Using compartmental models and Particle Swarm Optimization to assess Dengue basic reproduction number R 0 for the Republic of Panama in the 1999-2022 period

Nowadays, the ability to make data-driven decisions in public health is of utmost importance. To achieve this, it is necessary for modelers to comprehend the impact of models on the future state of healthcare systems. Compartmental models are a valuable tool for making informed epidemiological decisions, and the proper parameterization of these models is crucial for analyzing epidemiological events. This work evaluated the use of compartmental models in conjunction with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to determine optimal solutions and understand the dynamics of Dengue epidemics. The focus was on calculating and evaluating the rate of case reproduction, R 0 , for the Republic of Panama. Three compartmental models were compared: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR), and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Human-Susceptible-Infected Vector (SIR Human-SI Vector, SIR-SI). The models were informed by demographic data and Dengue incidence in the Republic of Panama between 1999 and 2022, and the susceptible population was analyzed. The SIR, SEIR, and SIR-SI models successfully provided R 0 estimates ranging from 1.09 to 1.74. This study provides, to the best of our understanding, the first calculation of R 0 for Dengue outbreaks in the Republic of Panama.

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Dengue Vector Densities in Southeast Asia through Process-Based Modeling

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are major vectors for several human diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. Their life cycles and hosted arboviruses are climate sensitive and thus expected to be impacted by climate change. Most studies investigating climate change impacts on Aedes at global or continental scales focused on their future global distribution changes, whereas a single study focused on its effects on Ae. aegypti densities regionally.

OBJECTIVES

A process-based approach was used to model densities of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and their potential evolution with climate change using a panel of nine CMIP6 climate models and climate scenarios ranging from strong to low mitigation measures at the Southeast Asian scale and for the next 80 y.

METHODS

The process-based model described, through a system of ordinary differential equations, the variations of mosquito densities in 10 compartments, corresponding to 10 different stages of mosquito life cycle, in response to temperature and precipitation variations. Local field data were used to validate model outputs.

RESULTS

We show that both species densities will globally increase due to future temperature increases. In Southeast Asia by the end of the century, Ae. aegypti densities are expected to increase from 25% with climate mitigation measures to 46% without; Ae. albopictus densities are expected to increase from 13%-21%, respectively. However, we find spatially contrasted responses at the seasonal scales with a significant decrease in Ae. albopictus densities in lowlands during summer in the future.

DISCUSSION

These results contrast with previous results, which brings new insight on the future impacts of climate change on Aedes densities. Major sources of uncertainties, such as mosquito model parametrization and climate model uncertainties, were addressed to explore the limits of such modeling. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11068.

A sterile insect technique pilot trial on Captiva Island: defining mosquito population parameters for sterile male releases using mark-release-recapture

Background

The sterile insect technique (SIT), which involves area-wide inundative releases of sterile insects to suppress the reproduction of a target species, has proven to be an effective pest control method. The technique demands the continuous release of sterilized insects in quantities that ensure a high sterile male:wild male ratio for the suppression of the wild population over succeeding generations.

Methods

For these releases, it is important to determine several ecological and biological population parameters, including the longevity of the released males in the field, the dispersal of the released males and the wild pest population size. The Lee County Mosquito Control District initiated a study in a 47-ha portion of Captiva Island (Florida, USA), an island with a total area of 230 ha, to define biological SIT parameters for Aedes aegypti (L.), an invasive disease-vectoring mosquito known to be difficult to control due to a combination of daytime biting activity, use of cryptic breeding habitats that are difficult to target with conventional night-time ultra-low volume methods, and emerging resistance to commonly used insecticides. Another goal was to assess patterns of dispersal and survival for laboratory-reared sterile Ae. aegypti males released over time in the pilot site. These parameters will be used to evaluate the efficacy of a SIT suppression program for Ae. aegypti on Captiva Island.

Results

Over the course of seven mark-release-recapture studies using single- and multiple-point releases, 190,504 sterile marked males were released, for which the recapture rate was 1.5% over a mean period of 12 days. The mean distance traveled by sterile males of the local strain of Ae. aegypti that has colonized Captiva Island was 201.7 m from the release point, with an observed maximum traveled distance of 404.5 m. The released sterile mosquitoes had a probability of daily survival of 0.67 and an average life expectancy of ~ 2.46 days.

Conclusions

These data together with the population size estimate and sterile:wild ratio provide a solid basis for planning the SIT operational phase which is aimed at mosquito population suppression.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05512-3.

Phillips GC, Greene KK, Poletto M, Sperry BD, Warner SA, Rose NR, Frandsen GK, Verza NC, Gorman KJ, Matzen KJ. New self-sexing Aedes aegypti strain eliminates barriers to scalable and sustainable vector control for governments and communities in dengue-prone environments

For more than 60 years, efforts to develop mating-based mosquito control technologies have largely failed to produce solutions that are both effective and scalable, keeping them out of reach of most governments and communities in disease-impacted regions globally. High pest suppression levels in trials have yet to fully translate into broad and effective Aedes aegypti control solutions. Two primary challenges to date-the need for complex sex-sorting to prevent female releases, and cumbersome processes for rearing and releasing male adult mosquitoes-present significant barriers for existing methods. As the host range of Aedes aegypti continues to advance into new geographies due to increasing globalisation and climate change, traditional chemical-based approaches are under mounting pressure from both more stringent regulatory processes and the ongoing development of insecticide resistance. It is no exaggeration to state that new tools, which are equal parts effective and scalable, are needed now more than ever. This paper describes the development and field evaluation of a new self-sexing strain of Aedes aegypti that has been designed to combine targeted vector suppression, operational simplicity, and cost-effectiveness for use in disease-prone regions. This conditional, self-limiting trait uses the sex-determination gene doublesex linked to the tetracycline-off genetic switch to cause complete female lethality in early larval development. With no female progeny survival, sex sorting is no longer required, eliminating the need for large-scale mosquito production facilities or physical sex-separation. In deployment operations, this translates to the ability to generate multiple generations of suppression for each mosquito released, while being entirely self-limiting. To evaluate these potential benefits, a field trial was carried out in densely-populated urban, dengue-prone neighbourhoods in Brazil, wherein the strain was able to suppress wild mosquito populations by up to 96%, demonstrating the utility of this self-sexing approach for biological vector control. In doing so, it has shown that such strains offer the critical components necessary to make these tools highly accessible, and thus they harbour the potential to transition mating-based approaches to effective and sustainable vector control tools that are within reach of governments and at-risk communities who may have only limited resources.

A Mark-Release-Recapture Study to Estimate Field Performance of Imported Radio-Sterilized Male Aedes albopictus in Albania

The pathogen transmitting Aedes albopictus mosquito is spreading rapidly in Europe, putting millions of humans and animals at risk. This species is well-established in Albania since its first detection in 1979. The sterile insect technique (SIT) is increasingly gaining momentum worldwide as a component of area-wide-integrated pest management. However, estimating how the sterile males will perform in the field and the size of target populations is crucial for better decision-making, designing and elaborating appropriate SIT pilot trials, and subsequent large-scale release strategies. A mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiment was carried out in Albania within a highly urbanized area in the city of Tirana. The radio-sterilized adults of Ae. albopictus Albania strain males were transported by plane from Centro Agricoltura Ambiente (CAA) mass-production facility (Bologna, Italy), where they were reared. In Albania, sterile males were sugar-fed, marked with fluorescent powder, and released. The aim of this study was to estimate, under field conditions, their dispersal capacity, probability of daily survival and competitiveness, and the size of the target population. In addition, two adult mosquito collection methods were also evaluated: BG-Sentinel traps baited with BG-Lure and CO_2, (BGS) versus human landing catch (HLC). The overall recapture rates did not differ significantly between the two methods (2.36% and 1.57% of the total male released were recaptured respectively by BGS and HLC), suggesting a similar trapping efficiency under these conditions. Sterile males traveled a mean distance of 93.85 ± 42.58 m and dispersed up to 258 m. Moreover, they were observed living in the field up to 15 days after release with an average life expectancy of 4.26 ± 0.80 days. Whether mosquitoes were marked with green, blue, yellow, or pink, released at 3.00 p.m. or 6.00 p.m., there was no significant difference in the recapture, dispersal, and survival rates in the field. The Fried competitiveness index was estimated at 0.28. This mark-release-recapture study provided important data for better decision-making and planning before moving to pilot SIT trials in Albania. Moreover, it also showed that both BG-traps and HLC were successful in monitoring adult mosquitoes and provided similar estimations of the main entomological parameters needed.

A Framework for Weather-Driven Dengue Virus Transmission Dynamics in Different Brazilian Regions

This study investigated a model to assess the role of climate fluctuations on dengue (DENV) dynamics from 2010 to 2019 in four Brazilian municipalities. The proposed transmission model was based on a preexisting SEI-SIR model, but also incorporates the vector vertical transmission and the vector's egg compartment, thus allowing rainfall to be introduced to modulate egg-hatching. Temperature and rainfall satellite data throughout the decade were used as climatic model inputs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the role of each parameter. The model-simulated scenario was compared to the observed dengue incidence and the findings indicate that the model was able to capture the observed seasonal dengue incidence pattern with good accuracy until 2016, although higher deviations were observed from 2016 to 2019. The results further demonstrate that vertical transmission fluctuations can affect attack transmission rates and patterns, suggesting the need to investigate the contribution of vertical transmission to dengue transmission dynamics in future assessments. The improved understanding of the relationship between different environment variables and dengue transmission achieved by the proposed model can contribute to public health policies regarding mosquito-borne diseases.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Abundance and Seasonality of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Two Suburban Localities of South Mexico, With Implications for Wolbachia (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae)-Carrying Male Releases for Population Suppression

We conducted a baseline characterization of the abundance and seasonality of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762)-a vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-in two suburban localities of Yucatan, Mexico, as the first step in the implementation of an integrated vector management (IVM) plan combining 'traditional Aedes control' (source reduction/truck-mounted ultra-low volume [ULV] spraying) and incompatible insect technique/sterile insect technique for population suppression in Yucatan, Mexico. Weekly entomological collections with ovitraps and BG-sentinel traps were performed in 1-ha quadrants of both localities for 1 yr. Three distinct periods/phases were identified, closely associated with precipitation: 1) a phase of low population abundance during the dry season (weekly average of Aedes eggs per ovitrap and adults per BG trap = 15.51 ± 0.71 and 10.07 ± 0.88, respectively); 2) a phase of population growth and greatest abundance of Aedes (49.03 ± 1.48 eggs and 25.69 ± 1.31 adults) during the rainy season; and finally 3) a phase of decline among populations (20.91 ± 0.97 eggs and 3.24 ± 0.21 adults) after the peak of the rainy season. Seasonal abundance and dynamics of Ae. aegypti populations suggest that it is feasible to develop and implement time-specific actions as part of an IVM approach incorporating integrating novel technologies (such as rear-and-release of Wolbachia-infected males) with classic (insecticide-based) approaches implemented routinely for vector control. In agreement with the local vector control program, we propose a pilot IVM strategy structured in a preparation phase, an attack phase with traditional vector control, and a suppression phase with inundative releases, which are described in this paper.

The Mayaro virus and its potential epidemiological consequences in Colombia: an exploratory biomathematics analysis

Background

Mayaro virus (Togaviridae) is an endemic arbovirus of the Americas with epidemiological similarities with the agents of other more prominent diseases such as dengue (Flaviviridae), Zika (Flaviviridae), and chikungunya (Togaviridae). It is naturally transmitted in a sylvatic/rural cycle by Haemagogus spp., but, potentially, it could be incorporated and transmitted in an urban cycle by Aedes aegypti, a vector widely disseminated in the Americas.

Methods

The Mayaro arbovirus dynamics was simulated mathematically in the colombian population in the eight biogeographical provinces, bearing in mind the vector’s population movement between provinces through passive transport via truck cargo. The parameters involved in the virus epidemiological dynamics, as well as the vital rates of Ae. aegypti in each of the biogeographical provinces were obtained from the literature. These data were included in a meta-population model in differential equations, represented by a model structured by age for the dynamic population of Ae. aegypti combined with an epidemiological SEI/SEIR-type model. In addition, the model was incorporated with a term of migration to represent the connectivity between the biogeographical provinces.

Results

The vital rates and the development cycle of Ae. aegypti varied between provinces, having greater biological potential between 23 °C and 28 °C in provinces of Imerí, biogeographical Chocó, and Magdalena, with respect to the North-Andean Moorland (9.33–21.38 °C). Magdalena and Maracaibo had the highest flow of land cargo. The results of the simulations indicate that Magdalena, Imerí, and biogeographical Chocó would be the most affected regarding the number of cases of people infected by Mayaro virus over time.

Conclusions

The temperature in each of the provinces influences the local population dynamics of Ae. aegypti and passive migration via transport of land cargo plays an important role on how the Mayaro virus would be disseminated in the human population. Once this arbovirus begins an urban cycle, the most-affected departments would be Antioquia, Santander, Norte de Santander, Cesar (Provinces of Magdalena), and Valle del Cauca, and Chocó (biogeographical province of Chocó), which is why vector control programmes must aim their efforts at these departments and include some type of vector control to the transport of land cargo to avoid a future Mayaro epidemic.

Adequacy and sufficiency evaluation of existing EFSA guidelines for the molecular characterisation, environmental risk assessment and post-market environmental monitoring of genetically modified insects containing engineered gene drives

Advances in molecular and synthetic biology are enabling the engineering of gene drives in insects for disease vector/pest control. Engineered gene drives (that bias their own inheritance) can be designed either to suppress interbreeding target populations or modify them with a new genotype. Depending on the engineered gene drive system, theoretically, a genetic modification of interest could spread through target populations and persist indefinitely, or be restricted in its spread or persistence. While research on engineered gene drives and their applications in insects is advancing at a fast pace, it will take several years for technological developments to move to practical applications for deliberate release into the environment. Some gene drive modified insects (GDMIs) have been tested experimentally in the laboratory, but none has been assessed in small-scale confined field trials or in open release trials as yet. There is concern that the deliberate release of GDMIs in the environment may have possible irreversible and unintended consequences. As a proactive measure, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has been requested by the European Commission to review whether its previously published guidelines for the risk assessment of genetically modified animals (EFSA, 2012 and 2013), including insects (GMIs), are adequate and sufficient for GDMIs, primarily disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, for deliberate release into the environment. Under this mandate, EFSA was not requested to develop risk assessment guidelines for GDMIs. In this Scientific Opinion, the Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) concludes that EFSA's guidelines are adequate, but insufficient for the molecular characterisation (MC), environmental risk assessment (ERA) and post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) of GDMIs. While the MC,ERA and PMEM of GDMIs can build on the existing risk assessment framework for GMIs that do not contain engineered gene drives, there are specific areas where further guidance is needed for GDMIs.

Detection of Fluorescent Powders and Their Effect on Survival and Recapture of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)

The use of insect markers, such as fluorescent powders, is a useful tool for studying ecological and epidemiological questions. Evaluating their effect on vectors of human disease agents, such as the invasive mosquito vector Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus), is crucial for their practical and reliable use, especially in parameters linked to the risk of disease transmission such as adult survival, dispersal, and host-seeking. Seven fluorescent powders (Hercules Radiant, DayGlo (DG), Risk Reactor (RR), and Angstrom Technologies), applied externally on cohorts of Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes, were tested to determine their impact on survival and recapture by baited mosquito traps, and their detectability after being exposed to controlled laboratory and semifield environments. There were no significant differences in survival among marked and unmarked females across all powders. Marked females were significantly less likely to be captured in baited traps relative to unmarked females, except for one of the DG powders. All females remained visibly marked on five parts of their body for 30 d (under both environments), except for one of the RR powders. The tested powders and application method are suitable for tracking mosquitoes throughout most of their lives under different environments, without significantly affecting their survival, but with potential impact on recapture by baited traps, possibly due to effects on senses or other physiological traits.

The Global Expansion of Dengue: How Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes Enabled the First Pandemic Arbovirus

Dengue is an emerging viral disease principally transmitted by the Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti mosquito. It is one of the fastest-growing global infectious diseases, with 100-400 million new infections a year, and is now entrenched in a growing number of tropical megacities. Behind this rapid rise is the simple adaptation of Ae. aegypti to a new entomological niche carved out by human habitation. This review describes the expansion of dengue and explores how key changes in the ecology of Ae. aegypti allowed it to become a successful invasive species and highly efficient disease vector. We argue that characterizing geographic heterogeneity in mosquito bionomics will be a key research priority that will enable us to better understand future dengue risk and design control strategies to reverse its global spread.

Estimating absolute indoor density of Aedes aegypti using removal sampling

BACKGROUND

Quantification of adult Aedes aegypti abundance indoors has relied on estimates of relative density (e.g. number of adults per unit of sampling or time), most commonly using traps or timed collections using aspirators. The lack of estimates of the sensitivity of collections and lack of a numerical association between relative and the absolute density of adult Ae. aegypti represent a significant gap in vector surveillance. Here, we describe the use of sequential removal sampling to estimate absolute numbers of indoor resting Ae. aegypti and to calculate calibration coefficients for timed Prokopack aspirator collections in the city of Merida, Yucatan State, Mexico. The study was performed in 200 houses that were selected based on recent occurrence of Aedes-borne viral illness in residents. Removal sampling occurred in 10-minute sampling rounds performed sequentially until no Ae. aegypti adult was collected for 3 hours or over 2 consecutive 10-minute periods.

RESULTS

A total of 3439 Ae. aegypti were collected. The sensitivity of detection of positive houses in the first sampling round was 82.5% for any adult Ae. aegypti, 78.5% for females, 75.5% for males and 73.3% for blood-fed females. The total number of Ae. aegypti per house was on average ~5 times higher than numbers collected for the first sampling round. There was a positive linear relationship between the relative density of Ae. aegypti collected during the first 10-min round and the absolute density for all adult metrics. Coefficients from the linear regression were used to calibrate numbers from 10-min collections into estimates of absolute indoor Ae. aegypti density for all adults, females and males.

CONCLUSIONS

Exhaustive removal sampling represents a promising method for quantification of absolute indoor Ae. aegypti density, leading to improved entomological estimates of mosquito distribution, a key measure in the assessments of the risk pathogen transmission, disease modeling and the evaluation of vector control interventions.

Population dynamics of engineered underdominance and killer-rescue gene drives in the control of disease vectors

A number of different genetics-based vector control methods have been proposed. Two approaches currently under development in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are the two-locus engineered underdominance and killer-rescue gene drive systems. Each of these is theoretically capable of increasing in frequency within a population, thus spreading associated desirable genetic traits. Thus they have gained attention for their potential to aid in the fight against various mosquito-vectored diseases. In the case of engineered underdominance, introduced transgenes are theoretically capable of persisting indefinitely (i.e. it is self-sustaining) whilst in the killer-rescue system the rescue component should initially increase in frequency (while the lethal component (killer) is common) before eventually declining (when the killer is rare) and being eliminated (i.e. it is temporally self-limiting). The population genetics of both systems have been explored using discrete generation mathematical models. The effects of various ecological factors on these two systems have also been considered using alternative modelling methodologies. Here we formulate and analyse new mathematical models combining the population dynamics and population genetics of these two classes of gene drive that incorporate ecological factors not previously studied and are simple enough to allow the effects of each to be disentangled. In particular, we focus on the potential effects that may be obtained as a result of differing ecological factors such as strengths of larval competition; numbers of breeding sites; and the relative fitness of transgenic mosquitoes compared with their wild-type counterparts. We also extend our models to consider population dynamics in two demes in order to explore the effects of dispersal between neighbouring populations on the outcome of UD and KR gene drive systems.

Short-term suppression of Aedes aegypti using genetic control does not facilitate Aedes albopictus

BACKGROUND

Under permit from the National Biosafety Commission for the use of genetically modified organisms, releases of a genetically engineered self-limiting strain of Aedes aegypti (OX513A) were used to suppress urban pest Ae. aegypti in West Panama. Experimental goals were to assess the effects on a coexisting population of Ae. albopictus and examine operational parameters with relevance to environmental impact.

RESULTS

Ae. albopictus populations were shown to be increasing year upon year at each of three study sites, potentially reflecting a broader-scale incursion into the area. Ae. albopictus abundance was unaffected by a sustained reduction in Ae. aegypti by up to 93% through repeated releases of OX513A. Males accounted for 99.99% of released OX513A, resulting in a sustained mating fraction of 75%. Mean mating competitiveness of OX513A was 0.14. The proportion of OX513A in the local environment decreased by 95% within 25 days of the final release.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence for species replacement of Ae. aegypti by Ae. albopictus over the course of this study. No unintentional environmental impacts or elevated operational risks were observed. The potential for this emerging technology to mitigate against disease outbreaks before they become established is discussed.