When to wait for more evidence? Real options analysis in proton therapy

How health technology assessment can help to address challenges in drug repurposing: a conceptual framework

Drug repurposing faces various challenges that can impede its success. We developed a framework outlining key challenges in drug repurposing to explore when and how health technology assessment (HTA) methods can address them. We identified 20 drug-repurposing challenges across the categories of data access, research and development, collaboration, business case, regulatory and legal challenges. Early incorporation of HTA methods, including literature review, empirical research, stakeholder consultation, health economic evaluation and uncertainty assessment, can help to address these challenges. HTA methods canassess the value proposition of repurposed drugs, inform further research and ultimately help to bring cost-effective repurposed drugs to patients.

Financial incentives to promote personalized medicine in Europe: an overview and guidance for implementation

The implementation of adequate financing and reimbursement of personalized medicine (PM) in Europe is still turbulent. The views and experience of stakeholders about barriers in financing and reimbursing PM and potential solutions were elicited and supplemented with literature findings to draft a set of recommendations. Key recommendations to overcome the barriers for adequately financing and reimbursing PM in different healthcare systems in Europe included the provision of legal foundations and establishment of large pan-European databases, use of financial-based agreements and regulation of transparency of prices and reimbursement, and creating a business-friendly environment and attractive market for innovation. The recommendations could be used by health authorities for designing a sequence of policy steps to ensure the timely access to beneficial PM.

Comprehensive Review of Methods to Assess Uncertainty in Health Economic Evaluations

Uncertainty assessment is a cornerstone in model-based health economic evaluations (HEEs) that inform reimbursement decisions. No comprehensive overview of available uncertainty assessment methods currently exists. We aimed to review methods for uncertainty assessment for use in model-based HEEs, by conducting a snowballing review. We categorised all methods according to their stage of use relating to uncertainty assessment (identification, analysis, communication). Additionally, we classified identification methods according to sources of uncertainty, and subdivided analysis and communication methods according to their purpose. The review identified a total of 80 uncertainty methods: 30 identification, 28 analysis, and 22 communication methods. Uncertainty identification methods exist to address uncertainty from different sources. Most identification methods were developed with the objective to assess related concepts such as validity, model quality, and relevance. Almost all uncertainty analysis and communication methods required uncertainty to be quantified and inclusion of uncertainties in probabilistic analysis. Our review can help analysts and decision makers in selecting uncertainty assessment methods according to their aim and purpose of the assessment. We noted a need for further clarification of terminology and guidance on the use of (combinations of) methods to identify uncertainty and related concepts such as validity and quality. A key finding is that uncertainty assessment relies heavily on quantification, which may necessitate increased use of expert elicitation and/or the development of methods to assess unquantified uncertainty.

REAL OPTIONS THEORY AND CLASSIFICATION OF PATIENTS BY DIAGNOSIS RELATED GROUPS: HOW THESE DIFFERENT FIELDS COULD RELATE?

ABSTRACT In a complex environment, the managers of hospital organizations should take hard decisions all the time. Therefore, tools and techniques, which seek to understand the past and project the future, are very important. In some situations, the complexity encountered requires the transfer of knowledge from other areas, to find solutions and develop tools that provide efficient management of resources. In this scenario, this article has the main objective to present a theoretical discussion that brings the relationship between the Theory of Real Options and the Diagnosis Related Groups, to identify possible points that underlie the use of real options in Diagnosis Related Groups. The results demonstrate that, with the patient's condition as the focus, both are applied in the hospital environment with the objective of supporting decision-making, but not together. In addition, the differences observed make the combination of some of its concepts relevant for decision-making.

Coverage with evidence development for medical devices in Europe: Can practice meet theory?

Health economists have written extensively on the design and implementation of coverage with evidence development (CED) schemes and have proposed theoretical frameworks based on cost-effectiveness modeling and value of information analysis. CED may aid decision-makers when there is uncertainty about the (cost-)effectiveness of a new health technology at the time of reimbursement. Medical devices are potential candidates for CED schemes, as regulatory regimes do not usually require the same level of efficacy and safety data normally needed for pharmaceuticals. The purpose of this research is to assess whether the actual practice of CED for medical devices in Europe meets the theoretical principles proposed by health economists and whether theory and practice can be more closely aligned. Based on decision-makers' perceptions of the challenges associated with CED schemes, plus examples from the schemes themselves, we discuss a series of proposals for assessing the desirability of schemes, their design, implementation, and evaluation. These proposals, while reflecting the practical challenges with developing CED programs, embody many of the principles suggested by economists and should support decision-makers in dealing with uncertainty about the real-world performance of devices.

Methods for Early Assessment of the Societal Value of Health Technologies: A Scoping Review and Proposal for Classification

OBJECTIVES

Early assessments of health technologies help to better align and integrate their development and assessment. Such assessments can take many forms and serve different purposes, hampering users in their selection of the most appropriate method for a specific goal. The aim of this scoping review was to structure the large set of methods according to their specific goal.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted using PubMed and reference lists of retrieved articles, to identify review studies with a methodological focus. From the included reviews, all individual methods were listed. Based on additional literature and examples, we extracted the specific goal of each method. All goals were clustered to derive a set of subclasses and methods were grouped into these subclasses.

RESULTS

Of the 404 screened, 5 reviews were included, and 1 was added when searching reference lists. The reviews described 56 methods, of which 43 (77%) were included and classified as methods to (1) explore the nature and magnitude of the problem, (2) estimate the nature and magnitude of the expected (societal) value, (3) identify conditions for the potential value to materialize, and (4) help develop and design the type of research that is needed.

CONCLUSIONS

The wide range of methods for exploring the societal value of health technologies at an early stage of development can be subdivided into a limited number of classes, distinguishing methods according to their specific objective. This facilitates selection of appropriate methods, depending on the specific needs and aims.

Coverage with evidence development schemes for medical devices in Europe: characteristics and challenges

OBJECTIVES

Medical devices are potentially good candidates for coverage with evidence development (CED) schemes, as clinical data at market entry are often sparse and (cost-)effectiveness depends on real-world use. The objective of this research was to explore the diffusion of CED schemes for devices in Europe, and the factors that favour or hamper their utilization.

METHODS

We conducted structured interviews with 25 decision-makers from 22 European countries to explore the characteristics of existing CED programmes for devices, and how decision makers perceived 13 pre-identified challenges associated with initiating and operating CED schemes for devices. We also collected data on individual schemes that were either initiated or still ongoing in the last 5 years.

RESULTS

We identified seven countries with CED programmes for devices and 78 ongoing schemes. The characteristics of CED programmes varied across countries, including eligibility criteria, roles and responsibilities of stakeholders, funding arrangements, and type of decisions being contemplated at the outset of each scheme. We observed a high variability in how decision makers perceived CED-related challenges possibly reflecting country-specific arrangements and different experiences with CED. One general finding across all countries was that relatively little attention was paid to the evaluation of schemes, both during and at their completion.

CONCLUSIONS

CED programmes for devices with different characteristics exist in Europe. Decision-makers' perceptions differ on the challenges associated with these schemes. More exchange of knowledge and experience will help decision makers anticipate the likely challenges in CED schemes for devices, and to learn from good practices existing elsewhere.

Hospital Investment Decisions in Healthcare 4.0 Technologies: Scoping Review and Framework for Exploring Challenges, Trends, and Research Directions

BACKGROUND

Alternative approaches to analyzing and evaluating health care investments in state-of-the-art technologies are being increasingly discussed in the literature, especially with the advent of Healthcare 4.0 (H4.0) technologies or eHealth. Such investments generally involve computer hardware and software that deal with the storage, retrieval, sharing, and use of health care information, data, and knowledge for communication and decision-making. Besides, the use of these technologies significantly increases when addressed in bundles. However, a structured and holistic approach to analyzing investments in H4.0 technologies is not available in the literature.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to analyze previous research related to the evaluation of H4.0 technologies in hospitals and characterize the most common investment approaches used. We propose a framework that organizes the research associated with hospitals' H4.0 technology investment decisions and suggest five main research directions on the topic.

METHODS

To achieve our goal, we followed the standard procedure for scoping reviews. We performed a search in the Crossref, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases with the keywords investment, health, industry 4.0, investment, health technology assessment, healthcare 4.0, and smart in the title, abstract, and keywords of research papers. We retrieved 5701 publications from all the databases. After removing papers published before 2011 as well as duplicates and performing further screening, we were left with 244 articles, from which 33 were selected after in-depth analysis to compose the final publication portfolio.

RESULTS

Our findings show the multidisciplinary nature of the research related to evaluating hospital investments in H4.0 technologies. We found that the most common investment approaches focused on cost analysis, single technology, and single decision-maker involvement, which dominate bundle analysis, H4.0 technology value considerations, and multiple decision-maker involvement.

CONCLUSIONS

Some of our findings were unexpected, given the interrelated nature of H4.0 technologies and their multidimensional impact. Owing to the absence of a more holistic approach to H4.0 technology investment decisions, we identified five promising research directions for the topic: development of economic valuation methodologies tailored for H4.0 technologies; accounting for technology interrelations in the form of bundles; accounting for uncertainties in the process of evaluating such technologies; integration of administrative, medical, and patient perspectives into the evaluation process; and balancing and handling complexity in the decision-making process.

Broadening the Concept of Value: A Scoping Review on the Option Value of Medical Technologies

OBJECTIVES

A recent debate in health economics and outcomes research community identified option value as one of the elements warranting consideration in the assessment of medical technologies. To conduct a scoping review of contributions on option value in the healthcare sector and identify relevant conceptual aspects and methods used to incorporate it in standard economic evaluations.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted up to July 2020 to identify contributions from electronic bibliographic database and gray literature. Data on the proposed definitions of option value, theoretical implications of its use in economic evaluations, and methods used to estimate it were extracted and analyzed.

RESULTS

We found 57 eligible studies. Three different definitions emerged: insurance value, real option value, and option value of survival. Focusing on the latter (24 studies), we analyzed in depth 8 empirical applications across 7 therapeutic areas. The most relevant methodological challenges were on the perspective used in economic evaluations and how to robustly manage forecasting uncertainty, update cost-effectiveness thresholds, and avoid double-counting issues. For empirical studies assessing the total value of the technology, including option value, estimates ranged from +7% to +469% of its conventional value.

CONCLUSIONS

This review synthesizes theoretical and empirical aspects on option value of healthcare technologies and proposes a terminology to distinguish 3 different concepts identified. Future work should focus primarily on agreeing on whether option value should be included in economic evaluations and, if so, on developing and validating reliable methods for its ex-ante estimation.

Decision analytic modeling for the economic analysis of proton radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer

Background

Although proton radiation treatments are more costly than photon/X-ray therapy, they may lower overall treatment costs through reducing rates of severe toxicities and the costly management of those toxicities. To study this issue, we created a decision-model comparing proton vs. X-ray radiotherapy for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients.

Methods

An influence diagram was created to model for radiation delivery, associated 6-month pneumonitis/esophagitis rates, and overall costs (radiation plus toxicity costs). Pneumonitis (age, chemo type, V20, MLD) and esophagitis (V60) predictors were modeled to impact toxicity rates. We performed toxicity-adjusted, rate-adjusted, risk group-adjusted, and radiosensitivity analyses.

Results

Upfront proton treatment costs exceeded that of photons [$16,730.37 (3DCRT), $23,893.83 (IMRT), $41,061.80 (protons)]. Based upon expected population pneumonitis and esophagitis rates for each modality, protons would be expected to recover $1,065.62 and $1,139.63 of the cost difference compared to 3DCRT or IMRT. For patients treated with IMRT experiencing grade 4 pneumonitis or grade 4 esophagitis, costs exceeded patients treated with protons without this toxicity. 3DCRT patients with grade 4 esophagitis had higher costs than proton patients without this toxicity. For the risk group analysis, high risk patients (age >65, carboplatin/paclitaxel) benefited more from proton therapy. A biomarker may allow patient selection for proton therapy, although the AUC alone is not sufficient to determine if the biomarker is clinically useful.

Conclusions

The comparison between proton and photon/X-ray radiation therapy for NSCLC needs to consider both the up-front cost of treatment and the possible long term cost of complications. In our analysis, current costs favor X-ray therapy. However, relatively small reductions in the cost of proton therapy may result in a shift to the preference for proton therapy.

Consensus Statement on Proton Therapy in Early-Stage and Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Radiation dose escalation has been shown to improve local control and survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer in some studies, but randomized data have not supported this premise, possibly owing to adverse effects. Because of the physical characteristics of the Bragg peak, proton therapy (PT) delivers minimal exit dose distal to the target volume, resulting in better sparing of normal tissues in comparison to photon-based radiation therapy. This is particularly important for lung cancer given the proximity of the lung, heart, esophagus, major airways, large blood vessels, and spinal cord. However, PT is associated with more uncertainty because of the finite range of the proton beam and motion for thoracic cancers. PT is more costly than traditional photon therapy but may reduce side effects and toxicity-related hospitalization, which has its own associated cost. The cost of PT is decreasing over time because of reduced prices for the building, machine, maintenance, and overhead, as well as newer, shorter treatment programs. PT is improving rapidly as more research is performed particularly with the implementation of 4-dimensional computed tomography-based motion management and intensity modulated PT. Given these controversies, there is much debate in the oncology community about which patients with lung cancer benefit significantly from PT. The Particle Therapy Co-operative Group (PTCOG) Thoracic Subcommittee task group intends to address the issues of PT indications, advantages and limitations, cost-effectiveness, technology improvement, clinical trials, and future research directions. This consensus report can be used to guide clinical practice and indications for PT, insurance approval, and clinical or translational research directions.

Variations in Proton Therapy Coverage in the State of Texas: Defining Medical Necessity for a Safe and Effective Treatment

Purpose

The definition of medical necessity and indications for coverage of proton beam therapy (PBT) for the treatment of cancer can vary greatly among different professional societies (PSs) and payors. Variations in policies introduce substantial inefficiencies and limit access for patients who may clinically benefit from PBT. The purpose of this study was to analyze differences in medical necessity and coverage policies among payors and a PS.

Materials and Methods

Peer-reviewed references and coverage decisions were abstracted from the coverage policies of each of the major payors in the state of Texas (Aetna-TX, UnitedHealthcare-TX, Blue Cross Blue Shield-TX) as well as from a representative PS, the Particle Therapy Cooperative Group. Differences in number and quality of references as well as coverage decisions were analyzed with descriptive statistics.

Results

Proton beam therapy coverage in the state of Texas varied among payors and the PS for several disease sites, including the central nervous system, eyes, and prostate. The PS cited more references and higher levels of evidence than payor policies (P < .01). Levels of evidence were inconsistent between policies. Interestingly, only 18% to 29% of cited references overlapped between policies.

Conclusions

Payors and PSs have independent and nonstandardized processes for determining PBT coverage, which result in variations in both coverage and evidence cited. These differences can lead to clinical inefficiencies and may reduce access to PBT based on payor status rather than clinical utility. A collaborative approach among all stakeholders would help create a more consistent, equitable, and patient-centered PBT policy that could identify areas for further evidence development.

Use of Value of Information in Healthcare Decision Making: Exploring Multiple Perspectives

BACKGROUND

Value of information (VOI) is a tool that can be used to inform decisions concerning additional research in healthcare. VOI estimates the value of obtaining additional information and indicates the optimal design for additional research. Although it is recognized as good practice in handling uncertainty, it is still hardly used in decision making in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to examine the potential value of VOI, barriers and facilitators and the way forward with the use of VOI in the decision-making process for reimbursement of pharmaceuticals in the Netherlands.

METHODS

Three focus group interviews were conducted with researchers, policy makers, and representatives of pharmaceutical companies.

RESULTS

The results revealed that although all stakeholders recognize the relevance of VOI, it is hardly used and many barriers to the performance and use of VOI were identified. One of these barriers is that not all uncertainties are easily incorporated in VOI, and the results may be biased if structural uncertainties are ignored. Furthermore, not all research designs indicated by VOI may be feasible in practice.

CONCLUSIONS

To fully embed VOI into current decision-making processes, a threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and guidelines that clarify when and how VOI should be performed are needed. In addition, it should be clear to all stakeholders how the results of VOI are used in decision making.

Development and evaluation of an online three-level proton vs photon decision support prototype for head and neck cancer - Comparison of dose, toxicity and cost-effectiveness

To quantitatively assess the effectiveness of proton therapy for individual patients, we developed a prototype for an online platform for proton decision support (PRODECIS) comparing photon and proton treatments on dose metric, toxicity and cost-effectiveness levels. An evaluation was performed with 23 head and neck cancer datasets.

Sample Size Estimation for Non-Inferiority Trials: Frequentist Approach versus Decision Theory Approach

BACKGROUND

Non-inferiority trials are performed when the main therapeutic effect of the new therapy is expected to be not unacceptably worse than that of the standard therapy, and the new therapy is expected to have advantages over the standard therapy in costs or other (health) consequences. These advantages however are not included in the classic frequentist approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials. In contrast, the decision theory approach of sample size calculation does include these factors. The objective of this study is to compare the conceptual and practical aspects of the frequentist approach and decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials, thereby demonstrating that the decision theory approach is more appropriate for sample size calculation of non-inferiority trials.

METHODS

The frequentist approach and decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials are compared and applied to a case of a non-inferiority trial on individually tailored duration of elastic compression stocking therapy compared to two years elastic compression stocking therapy for the prevention of post thrombotic syndrome after deep vein thrombosis.

RESULTS

The two approaches differ substantially in conceptual background, analytical approach, and input requirements. The sample size calculated according to the frequentist approach yielded 788 patients, using a power of 80% and a one-sided significance level of 5%. The decision theory approach indicated that the optimal sample size was 500 patients, with a net value of €92 million.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates and explains the differences between the classic frequentist approach and the decision theory approach of sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials. We argue that the decision theory approach of sample size estimation is most suitable for sample size calculation of non-inferiority trials.

Cost-effectiveness of proton beam therapy for intraocular melanoma

Purpose

Proton beam therapy is a commonly accepted treatment for intraocular melanomas, but the literature is lacking in descriptions of patient preferences of clinical outcomes and economic impact. In addition, no economic evaluations have been published regarding the incremental cost-effectiveness of proton beam therapy compared with enucleation or plaque brachytherapy, typical alternative treatments. We, therefore, conducted a cost-utility analysis of these three approaches for the treatment of intraocular melanomas.

Materials and Methods

A Markov model was constructed. Model parameters were identified from the published literature and publicly available data sources. Cost-effectiveness of each treatment was calculated in 2011 US Dollars per quality-adjusted life-year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated assuming enucleation as reference. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted on all model parameters. A decision threshold of $50,000/quality-adjusted life-year was used to determine cost-effectiveness.

Results

Enucleation had the lowest costs and quality-adjusted life-years, and plaque brachytherapy had the highest costs and quality-adjusted life-years. Compared with enucleation, the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for plaque brachytherapy and proton beam therapy were $77,500/quality-adjusted life-year and $106,100/quality-adjusted life-year, respectively. Results were highly sensitive to multiple parameters. All three treatments were considered optimal, and even dominant, depending on the values used for sensitive parameters.

Conclusion

Base-case analysis results suggest enucleation to be optimal. However, the optimal choice was not robust to sensitivity analyses and, depending on the assumption, both plaque brachytherapy and proton beam therapy could be considered cost-effective. Future clinical studies should focus on generating further evidence with the greatest parameter uncertainty to inform future cost-effectiveness analyses.

Dosimetric Comparison and Potential for Improved Clinical Outcomes of Paediatric CNS Patients Treated with Protons or IMRT

Background: We compare clinical outcomes of paediatric patients with CNS tumours treated with protons or IMRT. CNS tumours form the second most common group of cancers in children. Radiotherapy plays a major role in the treatment of many of these patients but also contributes to late side effects in long term survivors. Radiation dose inevitably deposited in healthy tissues outside the clinical target has been linked to detrimental late effects such as neurocognitive, behavioural and vascular effects in addition to endocrine abnormalities and second tumours. Methods: A literature search was performed using keywords: protons, IMRT, CNS and paediatric. Of 189 papers retrieved, 10 were deemed relevant based on title and abstract screening. All papers directly compared outcomes from protons with photons, five papers included medulloblastoma, four papers each included craniopharyngioma and low grade gliomas and three papers included ependymoma. Results: This review found that while proton beam therapy offered similar clinical target coverage, there was a demonstrable reduction in integral dose to normal structures. Conclusions: This in turn suggests the potential for superior long term outcomes for paediatric patients with CNS tumours both in terms of radiogenic second cancers and out-of-field adverse effects.

Novel treatment options in stage I non-small-cell lung cancer

In the last 5 years, the current management of stage I non-small-cell lung cancer has been challenged due to novel surgical approaches and advances in radiation technology. The outcome after a sublobar resection is promising, especially for tumors less than 2 cm. Other treatment opportunities are available for high risk patients with comorbidity and impaired pulmonary function. Stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy is a good alternative treatment to surgery, especially in elderly and comorbid patients. However, randomized evidence comparing sublobar resection and stereotactic radiotherapy is presently lacking. The most recent development in radiotherapy is hadron therapy with a presumed reduced toxicity because of its peculiar physical and biological effects. Promising thermal and microwave ablative techniques are in development and have specific niche indications.

Value of research and value of development in early assessments of new medical technologies

OBJECTIVES

In early stages of development of new medical technologies, there are conceptually separate but related societal decisions to be made concerning adoption, further development (i.e., technical improvement), and research (i.e., clinical trials) of new technologies. This article presents a framework to simultaneously support these three decisions from a societal perspective. The framework is applied to the 70-gene signature, a gene-expression profile for breast cancer, deciding which patients should receive adjuvant systemic therapy after surgery. The "original" signature performed on fresh frozen tissue (70G-FFT) could be further developed to a paraffin-based signature (70G-PAR) to reduce test failures.

METHODS

A Markov decision model comparing the "current" guideline Adjuvant Online (AO), 70G-FFT, and 70G-PAR was used to simulate 20-year costs and outcomes in a hypothetical cohort in The Netherlands. The 70G-PAR strategy was based on projected data from a comparable technology. Incremental net monetary benefits were calculated to support the adoption decision. Expected net benefit of development for the population and expected net benefit of sampling were calculated to support the development and research decision.

RESULTS

The 70G-PAR had the highest net monetary benefit, followed by the 70G-FFT. The population expected net benefit of development amounted to €91 million over 20 years (assuming €250 development costs per patient receiving the test). The expected net benefit of sampling amounted to €61 million for the optimal trial (n = 4000).

CONCLUSIONS

We presented a framework to simultaneously support adoption, development, and research decisions in early stages of medical technology development. In this case, the results indicate that there is value in both further development of 70G-FFT into 70G-PAR and further research.