An Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Australia in 1997 Caused by an H7N4 Virus

Investigation of risk factors for introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infection among commercial turkey operations in the United States, 2022: a case-control study

Introduction

The 2022-2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak in the United States (U.S.) is the largest and most costly animal health event in U.S. history. Approximately 70% of commercial farms affected during this outbreak have been turkey farms.

Methods

We conducted a case-control study to identify potential risk factors for introduction of HPAI virus onto commercial meat turkey operations. Data were collected from 66 case farms and 59 control farms in 12 states. Univariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to compare management and biosecurity factors on case and control farms.

Results

Factors associated with increased risk of infection included being in an existing control zone, having both brooders and growers, having toms, seeing wild waterfowl or shorebirds in the closest field, and using rendering for dead bird disposal. Protective factors included having a restroom facility, including portable, available to crews that visit the farm and workers having access and using a shower at least some of the time when entering a specified barn.

Discussion

Study results provide a better understanding of risk factors for HPAI infection and can be used to inform prevention and control measures for HPAI on U.S. turkey farms.

Investigation of risk factors for introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus onto table egg farms in the United States, 2022: a case-control study

INTRODUCTION

The 2022-2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak in the United States (U.S.) is the most geographically extensive and costly animal health event in U.S. history. In 2022 alone, over 57 million commercial and backyard poultry in 47 U.S. states were affected. Over 75% of affected poultry were part of the commercial table egg production sector.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study to identify potential risk factors for introduction of HPAI virus onto commercial table egg operations. Univariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to compare farm characteristics, management, and biosecurity factors on case and control farms.

RESULTS

Factors associated with increased risk of infection included being in an existing control zone, sightings of wild waterfowl, mowing or bush hogging vegetation less than 4 times a month, having an off-site method of daily mortality disposal (off-site composting or burial, rendering, or landfill), and wild bird access to feed/feed ingredients at least some of the time. Protective factors included a high level of vehicle washing for trucks and trailers entering the farm (a composite variable that included having a permanent wash station), having designated personnel assigned to specific barns, having a farm entrance gate, and requiring a change of clothing for workers entering poultry barns.

DISCUSSION

Study results improve our understanding of risk factors for HPAI infection and control measures for preventing HPAI on commercial U.S. table egg farms.

The Sialyl Lewis X Glycan Receptor Facilitates Infection of Subtype H7 Avian Influenza A Viruses

Subtype H7 avian influenza A viruses (IAVs) are enzootic in wild aquatic birds and have caused sporadic spillovers into domestic poultry and humans. Here, we determined the distribution of fucosylated α2,3 sialoglycan (i.e., sialyl Lewis X [SLe^X]) in chickens and five common dabbling duck species and the association between SLe^X and cell/tissue/host tropisms of H7 IAVs. Receptor binding analyses showed that H7 IAVs bind to both α2,3-linked (SA2,3Gal) and α2,6-linked sialic acids (SA2,6Gal), but with a higher preference for SLe^X; H7 IAVs replicated more efficiently in SLe^X-overexpressed than SLe^X-deficient MDCK cells. While chickens and all tested dabbling ducks expressed abundant SA2,3Gal and SA2,6Gal, SLe^X was detected in both respiratory and gastrointestinal tissues of chickens and mallard ducks and in only the respiratory tissues of gadwall, green-wing teal, and northern shoveler but not in wood ducks. Viral-tissue binding assays showed that H7 IAVs bind to chicken colon crypt cells that express SLe^X but fewer bind to mallard colon crypt cells, which do not express SLe^X; H7 IAVs bind efficiently to epithelial cells of all tissues expressing SA2,3Gal. High viral replication was identified in both chickens and mallards infected with an H7 virus, regardless of SLe^X expression, and viruses were detected in all cells to the same degree as viruses detected in the viral-tissue binding assays. In summary, this study suggests that SLe^X facilitates infection of H7 viruses, but other types of SA2,3Gal glycan receptors shape the tissue/host tropisms of H7 IAVs. IMPORTANCE In addition to causing outbreaks in domestic poultry, subtype H7 IAVs can cause sporadic spillover infections in lower mammals and humans. In this study, we showed that SLe^X expression varies among wild dabbling ducks. Although it facilitated virus binding and affected infection of H7 IAV in cells, SLe^X expression is not the only determinant of viral replication at either the tissue or host level. This study suggested that access to heterologous SA2,3Gal glycan receptors, including fucosylated α2,3-linked sialoglycans, shape tissue and host tropism of H7 IAVs in aquatic wild birds.

Hemagglutinin Subtype Specificity and Mechanisms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Genesis

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses (HPAIVs) arise from low pathogenic precursors following spillover from wild waterfowl into poultry populations. The main virulence determinant of HPAIVs is the presence of a multi-basic cleavage site (MBCS) in the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein. The MBCS allows for HA cleavage and, consequently, activation by ubiquitous proteases, which results in systemic dissemination in terrestrial poultry. Since 1959, 51 independent MBCS acquisition events have been documented, virtually all in HA from the H5 and H7 subtypes. In the present article, data from natural LPAIV to HPAIV conversions and experimental in vitro and in vivo studies were reviewed in order to compile recent advances in understanding HA cleavage efficiency, protease usage, and MBCS acquisition mechanisms. Finally, recent hypotheses that might explain the unique predisposition of the H5 and H7 HA sequences to obtain an MBCS in nature are discussed.

Rainfall driven and wild-bird mediated avian influenza virus outbreaks in Australian poultry

Globally, outbreaks of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) in poultry continue to burden economies and endanger human, livestock and wildlife health. Wild waterbirds are often identified as possible sources for poultry infection. Therefore, it is important to understand the ecological and environmental factors that directly influence infection dynamics in wild birds, as these factors may thereby indirectly affect outbreaks in poultry. In Australia, where large parts of the country experience erratic rainfall patterns, intense rainfalls lead to wild waterfowl breeding events at temporary wetlands and increased proportions of immunologically naïve juvenile birds. It is hypothesized that after breeding, when the temporary wetlands dry, increasing densities of immunologically naïve waterbirds returning to permanent water bodies might strongly contribute to AIV prevalence in wild waterfowl in Australia. Since rainfall has been implicated as an important environmental driver in AIV dynamics in wild waterbirds in southeast Australia and wild waterbirds are identified globally to have a role in virus spillover into poultry, we hypothesise that rainfall events have an indirect effect on AIV outbreaks in poultry in southeast Australia. In this study we investigated this hypothesis by examining the correlation between the timing of AIV outbreaks in poultry in and near the Murray-Darling basin in relation to temporal patterns in regional rainfall since 1970. Our findings support our hypothesis and suggest that the risk of AIV outbreaks in poultry increases after a period of high rainfall, with peak AIV risk two years after the onset of the high-rainfall period. This is presumably triggered by increased rates of waterbird breeding and consequent higher proportions of immunologically naïve juvenile waterbirds entering the population directly after major rainfall events, which subsequently aggregate near permanent water bodies when the landscape dries out.

Substitution Arg140Gly in Hemagglutinin Reduced the Virulence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H7N1

The H7 subtype of avian influenza viruses (AIV) stands out among other AIV. The H7 viruses circulate in ducks, poultry and equines and have repeatedly caused outbreaks of disease in humans. The laboratory strain A/chicken/Rostock/R0p/1934 (H7N1) (R0p), which was previously derived from the highly pathogenic strain A/FPV/Rostock/1934 (H7N1), was studied in this work to ascertain its biological property, genome stability and virulent changing mechanism. Several virus variants were obtained by serial passages in the chicken lungs. After 10 passages of this virus through the chicken lungs we obtained a much more pathogenic variant than the starting R0p. The study of intermediate passages showed a sharp increase in pathogenicity between the fifth and sixth passage. By cloning these variants, a pair of strains (R5p and R6p) was obtained, and the complete genomes of these strains were sequenced. Single amino acid substitution was revealed, namely reversion Gly140Arg in HA1. This amino acid is located at the head part of the hemagglutinin, adjacent to the receptor-binding site. In addition to the increased pathogenicity in chicken and mice, R6p differs from R5p in the shape of foci in cell culture and an increased affinity for a negatively charged receptor analogue, while maintaining a pattern of receptor-binding specificity and the pH of conformational change of HA.

An Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H7N7) in Australia and the Potential for Novel Influenza A Viruses to Emerge

In 2020, several geographically isolated farms in Victoria, Australia, experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H7N7 and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses H5N2 and H7N6. Effective containment and control measures ensured the eradication of these viruses but the event culminated in substantial loss of livestock and significant economic impact. The avian HPAI H7N7 virus generally does not infect humans; however, evidence shows the ocular pathway presents a favourable tissue tropism for human infection. Through antigenic drift, mutations in the H7N7 viral genome may increase virulence and pathogenicity in humans. The Victorian outbreak also detected LPAI H7N6 in emus at a commercial farm. Novel influenza A viruses can emerge by mixing different viral strains in a host susceptible to avian and human influenza strains. Studies show that emus are susceptible to infections from a wide range of influenza viral subtypes, including H5N1 and the pandemic H1N1. The emu’s internal organs and tissues express abundant cell surface sialic acid receptors that favour the attachment of avian and human influenza viruses, increasing the potential for internal genetic reassortment and the emergence of novel influenza A viruses. This review summarises the historical context of H7N7 in Australia, considers the potential for increased virulence and pathogenesis through mutations and draws attention to the emu as potentially an unrecognised viral mixing vessel.

Host Receptors of Influenza Viruses and Coronaviruses-Molecular Mechanisms of Recognition

Among the four genera of influenza viruses (IVs) and the four genera of coronaviruses (CoVs), zoonotic αIV and βCoV have occasionally caused airborne epidemic outbreaks in humans, who are immunologically naïve, and the outbreaks have resulted in high fatality rates as well as social and economic disruption and losses. The most devasting influenza A virus (IAV) in αIV, pandemic H1N1 in 1918, which caused at least 40 million deaths from about 500 million cases of infection, was the first recorded emergence of IAVs in humans. Usually, a novel human-adapted virus replaces the preexisting human-adapted virus. Interestingly, two IAV subtypes, A/H3N2/1968 and A/H1N1/2009 variants, and two lineages of influenza B viruses (IBV) in βIV, B/Yamagata and B/Victoria lineage-like viruses, remain seasonally detectable in humans. Both influenza C viruses (ICVs) in γIV and four human CoVs, HCoV-229E and HCoV-NL63 in αCoV and HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 in βCoV, usually cause mild respiratory infections. Much attention has been given to CoVs since the global epidemic outbreaks of βSARS-CoV in 2002-2004 and βMERS-CoV from 2012 to present. βSARS-CoV-2, which is causing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that has resulted in 890,392 deaths from about 27 million cases of infection as of 8 September 2020, has provoked worldwide investigations of CoVs. With the aim of developing efficient strategies for controlling virus outbreaks and recurrences of seasonal virus variants, here we overview the structures, diversities, host ranges and host receptors of all IVs and CoVs and critically review current knowledge of receptor binding specificity of spike glycoproteins, which mediates infection, of IVs and of zoonotic, pandemic and seasonal CoVs.

An overview of avian influenza in the context of the Australian commercial poultry industry

From 1976 Australia has experienced seven highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry farms and there have been a total of 16 confirmed low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) cases in poultry in Australia at the time of writing. This paper describes all past LPAI and HPAI detections in Australian poultry and reviews avian influenza risk in the Australian commercial chicken industry. The factors that influence this risk are also discussed; notably the nomadic nature of Australian waterfowl, the increasing demand of free range poultry egg and meat production in Australia, and biosecurity practices implemented across farms including farm separations.

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Australia has experienced seven highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry farms

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There have been 16 confirmed low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) cases in poultry in Australia at the time of writing

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Australian waterfowl are nomadic in nature

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There is increasing demand of free range poultry production in Australia

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Mathematical models for avian influenza risk in Australia have been reviewed

Reassortment and adaptive mutations of an emerging avian influenza virus H7N4 subtype in China

Human infections with avian influenza viruses including H5, H7 and H9 hemagglutinin subtypes occur at a low rate. Among human infections with H7 viruses, regional outbreaks with H7N2, H7N3, H7N7 and H7N9 have been documented. Early in 2018, a human infection with a novel H7N4 avian influenza virus was reported in Jiangsu, China. This study is aimed at understanding the probable origin and molecular features of this emerging H7N4 virus. Genomic segments encoding hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) of H7Nx and HxN4 viruses were compared with this H7N4 strain by alignment and phylogenetic tree analysis. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the human H7N4 virus probably originated from multiple reassortments of avian H7N7 and H8N4 viruses for its HA and NA, respectively, and likely a regional uncharacterized virus for its internal segments. Our data excluded that circulating avian H9N2 viruses were the origin of the H7N4 internal segments, unlike the human H5N1 and H7N9 viruses that both had H9N2 backbones. This index case provided a unique opportunity to examine viral mutations by directly comparing the human isolate with its closest viral relatives isolated from avian species from the patient's farm, which may suggest critical mutations required for viral adaptation in humans. Whole-genome scanning was performed and the sequences of the human and related avian H7N4 isolates were compared. Mutations in PB2 (E627K), PB2 (K683T), PB1-F2 (N47S), HA (N283D), HA(K321E), NA(A137V), NA(K296R) and M2 (C19Y) were identified in the human isolate while no mutations were found in PB1, NP, NS1, and NS2 of the human H7N4 compared to the avian H7N4 viruses. Our data in this report provide further evidence for the genesis of this novel H7N4 virus with a multi-reassortment model and show molecular changes that might be responsible for the transmission of this virus from chickens or ducks to and subsequent replication in humans.

Modelling the impact of biosecurity practices on the risk of high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Australian commercial chicken farms

As of 2018, Australia has experienced seven outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry since 1976, all of which involved chickens. There is concern that increases in free-range farming could heighten HPAI outbreak risk due to the potential for greater contact between chickens and wild birds that are known to carry low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). We use mathematical models to assess the effect of a shift to free-range farming on the risk of HPAI outbreaks of H5 or H7 in the Australian commercial chicken industry, and the potential for intervention strategies to reduce this risk. We find that a shift of 25% of conventional indoor farms to free-range farming practices would result in a 6-7% increase in the risk of a HPAI outbreak. Current practices to treat water are highly effective, reducing the risk of outbreaks by 25-28% compared to no water treatment. Halving wild bird presence in feed storage areas could reduce risk by 16-19% while halving wild bird access of potential bridge-species to sheds could reduce outbreak risk by 23-25%, and relatively small improvements in biosecurity measures could entirely compensate for increased risks due to the increasing proportion of free-range farms in the industry. The short production cycle and cleaning practices for chicken meat sheds considerably reduce the risk that an introduced low pathogenic avian influenza virus is maintained in the flock until it is detected as HPAI through increased mortality of chickens. These findings help explain HPAI outbreak history in Australia and suggest practical changes in biosecurity practices that could reduce the risk of future outbreaks.

Severe human infection with a novel avian-origin influenza A(H7N4) virus

Human infections with influenza H7 subtypes, such as H7N9, have raised concerns worldwide. Here, we report a human infection with a novel influenza A(H7N4) virus. A 68 years-old woman with cardiovascular and cholecystic comorbidities developed rapidly progressed pneumonia with influenza-like-illness as initial symptom, recovered after 23 days-hospitalization including 8 days in ICU. Laboratory indicators for liver and blood coagulation dysfunction were observed. Oseltamivir phosphate, glucocorticoids and antibiotics were jointly implemented, with nasal catheterization of oxygen inhalation for this patient. We obtained the medical records and collected serial respiratory and blood specimens from her. We collected throat, cloacal and/or feces samples of poultry and wild birds from the patient's backyard, neighborhood, local live poultry markets (LPMs) and the nearest lake. All close contacts of the patient were followed up and sampled with throat swabs and sera. Influenza viruses and other respiratory pathogens were tested by real-time RT-PCR, viral culturing and/or sequencing for human respiratory and bird samples. Micro-neutralizing assay was performed for sera. A novel reassortant wild bird-origin H7N4 virus is identified from the patient and her backyard poultry (chickens and ducks) by sequencing, which is distinct from previously-reported avian H7N4 and H7N9 viruses. At least four folds increase of neutralizing antibodies to H7N4 was detected in her convalescent sera. No samples from close contacts, wild birds or other poultry were tested positive for H7N4 by real-time RT-PCR.

First human infection by a novel avian influenza A(H7N4) virus

Multiple reassortant strains of novel, highly pathogenic avian influenza A have recently emerged and spread over the world. Here we report on a 68-year-old woman in Jiangsu, China, with influenza A(H7N4) infection and associated illness, which strongly demonstrating the ability of the virus to spread from animals to humans and thus emphasizing the importance of continuous surveillance of the emerging viruses.

Geographical and Historical Patterns in the Emergences of Novel Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5 and H7 Viruses in Poultry

Over the years, the emergence of novel H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) has been taking place through two main mechanisms: first, the conversion of a low pathogenic into a highly pathogenic virus, and second, the reassortment between different genetic segments of low and highly pathogenic viruses already in circulation. We investigated and summarized the literature on emerging HPAI H5 and H7 viruses with the aim of building a spatio-temporal database of all these recorded conversions and reassortments events. We subsequently mapped the spatio-temporal distribution of known emergence events, as well as the species and production systems that they were associated with, the aim being to establish their main characteristics. From 1959 onwards, we identified a total of 39 independent H7 and H5 LPAI to HPAI conversion events. All but two of these events were reported in commercial poultry production systems, and a majority of these events took place in high-income countries. In contrast, a total of 127 reassortments have been reported from 1983 to 2015, which predominantly took place in countries with poultry production systems transitioning from backyard to intensive production systems. Those systems are characterized by several co-circulating viruses, multiple host species, regular contact points in live bird markets, limited biosecurity within value chains, and frequent vaccination campaigns that impose selection pressures for emergence of novel reassortants. We conclude that novel HPAI emergences by these two mechanisms occur in different ecological niches, with different viral, environmental and host associated factors, which has implications in early detection and management and mitigation of the risk of emergence of novel HPAI viruses.

Low- and High-Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 and H7 Spread Risk Assessment Within and Between Australian Commercial Chicken Farms

This study quantified and compared the probability of avian influenza (AI) spread within and between Australian commercial chicken farms via specified spread pathways using scenario tree mathematical modeling. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature, expert opinion, and a farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 on Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland. Outputs from the models indicate that the probability of no establishment of infection in a shed is the most likely end-point after exposure and infection of low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) in one chicken for all farm types (non-free range meat chicken, free range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms). If LPAI infection is established in a shed, LPAI is more likely to spread to other sheds and beyond the index farm due to a relatively low probability of detection and reporting during LPAI infection compared to high-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection. Among farm types, the median probability for HPAI spread between sheds and between farms is higher for layer farms (0.0019, 0.0016, and 0.0031 for cage, barn, and free range layer, respectively) than meat chicken farms (0.00025 and 0.00043 for barn and free range meat chicken, respectively) due to a higher probability of mutation in layer birds, which relates to their longer production cycle. The pathway of LPAI spread between sheds with the highest average median probability was spread via equipment (0.015; 5-95%, 0.0058-0.036) and for HPAI spread between farms, the pathway with the highest average median probability was spread via egg trays (3.70 × 10^-5; 5-95%, 1.47 × 10^-6-0.00034). As the spread model did not explicitly consider volume and frequency of the spread pathways, these results provide a comparison of spread probabilities per pathway. These findings highlight the importance of performing biosecurity practices to limit spread of the AI virus. The models can be updated as new information on the mechanisms of the AI virus and on the volume and frequency of movements shed-to-shed and of movements between commercial chicken farms becomes available.

Avian influenza overview November 2017 - February 2018

Between 16 November 2017 and 15 February 2018, one highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N6) and five HPAI A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry holdings, two HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in captive birds and 22 HPAI A(H5N6) wild bird events were reported within Europe. There is a lower incursion of HPAI A(H5N6) in poultry compared to HPAI A(H5N8). There is no evidence to date that HPAI A(H5N6) viruses circulating in Europe are associated with clades infecting humans. Clinical signs in ducks infected with HPAI A(H5N8) seemed to be decreasing, based on reports from Bulgaria. However, HPAI A(H5N8) is still present in Europe and is widespread in neighbouring areas. The majority of mortality events of wild birds from HPAIV A(H5) in this three-month period involved single birds. This indicates that the investigation of events involving single dead birds of target species is important for comprehensive passive surveillance for HPAI A(H5). Moreover, 20 low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) outbreaks were reported in three Member States. The risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low. The first human case due to avian influenza A(H7N4) was notified in China underlining the threat that newly emerging avian influenza viruses pose for transmission to humans. Close monitoring is required of the situation in Africa and the Middle East with regards to HPAI A(H5N1) and A(H5N8). Uncontrolled spread of virus and subsequent further genetic evolution in regions geographically connected to Europe may increase uncertainty and risk for further dissemination of virus. The risk of HPAI introduction from Third countries via migratory wild birds to Europe is still considered much lower for wild birds crossing the southern borders compared to birds crossing the north-eastern borders, whereas the introduction via trade is still very to extremely unlikely.

Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation

The objective of this study was to elicit experts’ opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

Avian influenza in Australia: a summary of 5 years of wild bird surveillance

BACKGROUND

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are found worldwide in numerous bird species, causing significant disease in gallinaceous poultry and occasionally other species. Surveillance of wild bird reservoirs provides an opportunity to add to the understanding of the epidemiology of AIVs.

METHODS

This study examined key findings from the National Avian Influenza Wild Bird Surveillance Program over a 5-year period (July 2007-June 2012), the main source of information on AIVs circulating in Australia.

RESULTS

The overall proportion of birds that tested positive for influenza A via PCR was 1.9 ± 0.1%, with evidence of widespread exposure of Australian wild birds to most low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) subtypes (H1-13, H16). LPAI H5 subtypes were found to be dominant and widespread during this 5-year period.

CONCLUSION

Given Australia's isolation, both geographically and ecologically, it is important for Australia not to assume that the epidemiology of AIV from other geographic regions applies here. Despite all previous highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Australian poultry being attributed to H7 subtypes, widespread detection of H5 subtypes in wild birds may represent an ongoing risk to the Australian poultry industry.

Limited Antigenic Diversity in Contemporary H7 Avian-Origin Influenza A Viruses from North America

Subtype H7 avian–origin influenza A viruses (AIVs) have caused at least 500 confirmed human infections since 2003 and culling of >75 million birds in recent years. Here we antigenically and genetically characterized 93 AIV isolates from North America (85 from migratory waterfowl [1976–2010], 7 from domestic poultry [1971–2012], and 1 from a seal [1980]). The hemagglutinin gene of these H7 viruses are separated from those from Eurasia. Gradual accumulation of nucleotide and amino acid substitutions was observed in the hemagglutinin of H7 AIVs from waterfowl and domestic poultry. Genotype characterization suggested that H7 AIVs in wild birds form diverse and transient internal gene constellations. Serologic analyses showed that the 93 isolates cross-reacted with each other to different extents. Antigenic cartography showed that the average antigenic distance among them was 1.14 units (standard deviation [SD], 0.57 unit) and that antigenic diversity among the H7 isolates we tested was limited. Our results suggest that the continuous genetic evolution has not led to significant antigenic diversity for H7 AIVs from North America. These findings add to our understanding of the natural history of IAVs and will inform public health decision-making regarding the threat these viruses pose to humans and poultry.

Evaluating the risk of avian influenza introduction and spread among poultry exhibition flocks in Australia

Some practices undertaken by poultry exhibitors, such as allowing wild birds to contact domestic birds, the high frequency of bird movements and the lack of appropriate isolation for incoming birds, pose a risk for disease introduction and spread. The aim of the current study was to quantitatively assess the probability of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses from wild waterfowl into poultry exhibition flocks and the subsequent spread to other poultry flocks. Exposure and consequence assessments, using scenario trees and Monte Carlo stochastic simulation modelling, were conducted to identify potential pathways of introduction and spread and calculate the probabilities of these pathways occurring. Input parameters were estimated from two recently conducted cross-sectional studies among poultry exhibitors in Australia (Dusan et al., 2010; Hernández-Jover et al., 2013) and other scientific literature. According to reported practices of poultry exhibitors and the LPAI prevalence in wild birds in Australia, this assessment estimates a median (5-95%) probability of exposure of a bird kept by a poultry exhibitor of 0.004 (0.003-0.005). Due to the higher susceptibility of infection of turkeys and waterfowl, this probability is higher in flocks keeping these bird species than in those keeping chickens or pigeons only. Similarly, once exposure has occurred, establishment of infection and subsequent spread are more likely in those flocks keeping waterfowl and turkeys than in those keeping chicken and pigeons only. Spread through movement of birds is the most likely pathway of spread, followed by contaminated fomites, wild birds and airborne spread. The median probability of LPAI spread through movement of birds in flocks keeping waterfowl and turkeys was estimated to be 0.280 (0.123-0.541) and 0.230 (0.104-0.421), respectively. A lower probability was estimated for chicken (0.087; 0.027-0.202) and pigeon (0.0003; 3.0×10(-5)-0.0008) flocks. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the prevalence of LPAI in wild waterfowl and the probability of contact of domestic birds with wild waterfowl are the most influential parameters on the probability of exposure; while the probability of spread is mostly influenced by the probability of movement of birds and the probability of the exhibitor detecting and reporting LPAI. To minimize the potential risk of AI introduction and spread, poultry exhibitors should prevent contact of domestic birds with wild birds, and implement appropriate biosecurity practices. In addition, adequate extension services are required to improve exhibitors' abilities to recognize diseases and reporting behaviour.

Detection of evolutionarily distinct avian influenza a viruses in antarctica

Distinct lineages of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are harbored by spatially segregated birds, yet significant surveillance gaps exist around the globe. Virtually nothing is known from the Antarctic. Using virus culture, molecular analysis, full genome sequencing, and serology of samples from Adélie penguins in Antarctica, we confirmed infection by H11N2 subtype AIVs. Their genetic segments were distinct from all known contemporary influenza viruses, including South American AIVs, suggesting spatial separation from other lineages. Only in the matrix and polymerase acidic gene phylogenies did the Antarctic sequences form a sister relationship to South American AIVs, whereas distant phylogenetic relationships were evident in all other gene segments. Interestingly, their neuraminidase genes formed a distant relationship to all avian and human influenza lineages, and the polymerase basic 1 and polymerase acidic formed a sister relationship to the equine H3N8 influenza virus lineage that emerged during 1963 and whose avian origins were previously unknown. We also estimated that each gene segment had diverged for 49 to 80 years from its most closely related sequences, highlighting a significant gap in our AIV knowledge in the region. We also show that the receptor binding properties of the H11N2 viruses are predominantly avian and that they were unable to replicate efficiently in experimentally inoculated ferrets, suggesting their continuous evolution in avian hosts. These findings add substantially to our understanding of both the ecology and the intra- and intercontinental movement of Antarctic AIVs and highlight the potential risk of an incursion of highly pathogenic AIVs into this fragile environment.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are typically maintained and spread by migratory birds, resulting in the existence of distinctly different viruses around the world. However, AIVs have not previously been detected in Antarctica. In this study, we characterized H11N2 viruses sampled from Adélie penguins from two geographically different sites in Antarctica and show that the segmented AIV genome diverged between 49 and 80 years ago from other AIVs, with several genes showing similarity and shared ancestry with H3N8 equine influenza viruses. This study provides the first insight into the ecology of AIVs in Antarctica and highlights the potential risk of an introduction of highly pathogenic AIVs into the continent.

Prevalence and control of H7 avian influenza viruses in birds and humans

The H7 subtype HA gene has been found in combination with all nine NA subtype genes. Most exhibit low pathogenicity and only rarely high pathogenicity in poultry (and humans). During the past few years infections of poultry and humans with H7 subtypes have increased markedly. This review summarizes the emergence of avian influenza virus H7 subtypes in birds and humans, and the possibilities of its control in poultry. All H7Nx combinations were reported from wild birds, the natural reservoir of the virus. Geographically, the most prevalent subtype is H7N7, which is endemic in wild birds in Europe and was frequently reported in domestic poultry, whereas subtype H7N3 is mostly isolated from the Americas. In humans, mild to fatal infections were caused by subtypes H7N2, H7N3, H7N7 and H7N9. While infections of humans have been associated mostly with exposure to domestic poultry, infections of poultry have been linked to wild birds or live-bird markets. Generally, depopulation of infected poultry was the main control tool; however, inactivated vaccines were also used. In contrast to recent cases caused by subtype H7N9, human infections were usually self-limiting and rarely required antiviral medication. Close genetic and antigenic relatedness of H7 viruses of different origins may be helpful in development of universal vaccines and diagnostics for both animals and humans. Due to the wide spread of H7 viruses and their zoonotic importance more research is required to better understand the epidemiology, pathobiology and virulence determinants of these viruses and to develop improved control tools.

The recent establishment of North American H10 lineage influenza viruses in Australian wild waterfowl and the evolution of Australian avian influenza viruses

Influenza A H10N7 virus with a hemagglutinin gene of North American origin was detected in Australian chickens and poultry abattoir workers in New South Wales, Australia, in 2010 and in chickens in Queensland, Australia, on a mixed chicken and domestic duck farm in 2012. We investigated their genomic origins by sequencing full and partial genomes of H10 viruses isolated from wild aquatic birds and poultry in Australia and analyzed them with all available avian influenza virus sequences from Oceania and representative viruses from North America and Eurasia. Our analysis showed that the H10N7 viruses isolated from poultry were similar to those that have been circulating since 2009 in Australian aquatic birds and that their initial transmission into Australia occurred during 2007 and 2008. The H10 viruses that appear to have developed endemicity in Australian wild aquatic birds were derived from several viruses circulating in waterfowl along various flyways. Their hemagglutinin gene was derived from aquatic birds in the western states of the United States, whereas the neuraminidase was closely related to that from viruses previously detected in waterfowl in Japan. The remaining genes were derived from Eurasian avian influenza virus lineages. Our analysis of virological data spanning 40 years in Oceania indicates that the long-term evolutionary dynamics of avian influenza viruses in Australia may be determined by climatic changes. The introduction and long-term persistence of avian influenza virus lineages were observed during periods with increased rainfall, whereas bottlenecks and extinction were observed during phases of widespread decreases in rainfall. These results extend our understanding of factors affecting the dynamics of avian influenza and provide important considerations for surveillance and disease control strategies.

Analysis and visualization of H7 influenza using genomic, evolutionary and geographic information in a modular web service

We have reported previously on use of a web-based application, Supramap (http://supramap.org) for the study of biogeographic, genotypic, and phenotypic evolution. Using Supramap we have developed maps of the spread of drug-resistant influenza and host shifts in H1N1 and H5N1 influenza and coronaviruses such as SARS. Here we report on another zoonotic pathogen, H7 influenza, and provide an update on the implementation of Supramap as a web service. We find that the emergence of pathogenic strains of H7 is labile with many transitions from high to low pathogenicity, and from low to high pathogenicity. We use Supramap to put these events in a temporal and geospatial context. We identify several lineages of H7 influenza with biomarkers of high pathogenicity in regions that have not been reported in the scientific literature. The original implementation of Supramap was built with tightly coupled client and server software. Now we have decoupled the components to provide a modular web service for POY (http://poyws.org) that can be consumed by a data provider to create a novel application. To demonstrate the web service, we have produced an application, Geogenes (http://geogenes.org). Unlike in Supramap, in which the user is required to create and upload data files, in Geogenes the user works from a graphical interface to query an underlying dataset. Geogenes demonstrates how the web service can provide underlying processing for any sequence and metadata database. © The Willi Hennig Society 2012.

Generating social network data using partially described networks: an example informing avian influenza control in the British poultry industry

BACKGROUND

Targeted sampling can capture the characteristics of more vulnerable sectors of a population, but may bias the picture of population level disease risk. When sampling network data, an incomplete description of the population may arise leading to biased estimates of between-host connectivity. Avian influenza (AI) control planning in Great Britain (GB) provides one example where network data for the poultry industry (the Poultry Network Database or PND), targeted large premises and is consequently demographically biased. Exposing the effect of such biases on the geographical distribution of network properties could help target future poultry network data collection exercises. These data will be important for informing the control of potential future disease outbreaks.

RESULTS

The PND was used to compute between-farm association frequencies, assuming that farms sharing the same slaughterhouse or catching company, or through integration, are potentially epidemiologically linked. The fitted statistical models were extrapolated to the Great Britain Poultry Register (GBPR); this dataset is more representative of the poultry industry but lacks network information. This comparison showed how systematic biases in the demographic characterisation of a network, resulting from targeted sampling procedures, can bias the derived picture of between-host connectivity within the network.

CONCLUSIONS

With particular reference to the predictive modeling of AI in GB, we find significantly different connectivity patterns across GB when network estimates incorporate the more demographically representative information provided by the GBPR; this has not been accounted for by previous epidemiological analyses. We recommend ranking geographical regions, based on relative confidence in extrapolated estimates, for prioritising further data collection. Evaluating whether and how the between-farm association frequencies impact on the risk of between-farm transmission will be the focus of future work.

Host shifts and molecular evolution of H7 avian influenza virus hemagglutinin

Evolutionary consequences of host shifts represent a challenge to identify the mechanisms involved in the emergence of influenza A (IA) viruses. In this study we focused on the evolutionary history of H7 IA virus in wild and domestic birds, with a particular emphasis on host shifts consequences on the molecular evolution of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene. Based on a dataset of 414 HA nucleotide sequences, we performed an extensive phylogeographic analysis in order to identify the overall genetic structure of H7 IA viruses. We then identified host shift events and investigated viral population dynamics in wild and domestic birds, independently. Finally, we estimated changes in nucleotide substitution rates and tested for positive selection in the HA gene. A strong association between the geographic origin and the genetic structure was observed, with four main clades including viruses isolated in North America, South America, Australia and Eurasia-Africa. We identified ten potential events of virus introduction from wild to domestic birds, but little evidence for spillover of viruses from poultry to wild waterbirds. Several sites involved in host specificity (addition of a glycosylation site in the receptor binding domain) and virulence (insertion of amino acids in the cleavage site) were found to be positively selected in HA nucleotide sequences, in genetically unrelated lineages, suggesting parallel evolution for the HA gene of IA viruses in domestic birds. These results highlight that evolutionary consequences of bird host shifts would need to be further studied to understand the ecological and molecular mechanisms involved in the emergence of domestic bird-adapted viruses.

Molecular analysis of H7 avian influenza viruses from Australia and New Zealand: genetic diversity and relationships from 1976 to 2007

Full-genome sequencing of 11 Australian and 1 New Zealand avian influenza A virus isolate (all subtype H7) has enabled comparison of the sequences of each of the genome segments to those of other subtype H7 avian influenza A viruses. The inference of phylogenetic relationships for each segment has been used to develop a model of the natural history of these viruses in Australia. Phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin segment indicates that the Australian H7 isolates form a monophyletic clade. This pattern is consistent with the long-term, independent evolution that is, in this instance, associated with geographic regions. On the basis of the analysis of the other H7 hemagglutinin sequences, three other geographic regions for which similar monophyletic clades have been observed were confirmed. These regions are Eurasia plus Africa, North America, and South America. Analysis of the neuraminidase sequences from the H7N1, H7N3, and H7N7 genomes revealed the same region-based relationships. This pattern of independent evolution of Australian isolates is supported by the results of analysis of each of the six remaining genomic segments. These results, in conjunction with the occurrence of five different combinations of neuraminidase subtypes (H7N2, H7N3, H7N4, H7N6, H7N7) among the 11 Australian isolates, suggest that the maintenance host(s) is nearly exclusively associated with Australia. The single lineage of Australian H7 hemagglutinin sequences, despite the occurrence of multiple neuraminidase types, suggests the existence of a genetic pool from which a variety of reassortants arise rather than the presence of a small number of stable viral clones. This pattern of evolution is likely to occur in each of the regions mentioned above.

Risk-based surveillance of avian influenza in Australia's wild birds

Context. The epidemiology of avian influenza and the ecology of wild birds are inextricably linked. An understanding of both is essential in assessing and managing the risks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Aims. This project investigates the abundance, movements and breeding ecology of Australia’s Anseriformes in relation to the prevalence of low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) and provides risk profiles to improve the efficiency and relevance of wild-bird surveillance. Methods. Generalised linear models and analysis of variance were used to examine the determinants of Anseriformes abundance and movements in Australia, and the observed prevalence of LPAI in Australia (n = 33 139) and overseas (n = 93 344). Risk profiles were developed using poultry density, estimated LPAI prevalence, the abundance of Anseriformes, and the probability of Anseriformes moving from areas of HPAI epizootics. Key results. Analysis of Australian wild-bird surveillance data strongly supports other studies that have found the prevalence of LPAI in wild birds to be much lower (1%) in Australia than that in other countries (4.7%). LPAI prevalence was highly variable among sampling periods and locations and significantly higher in dabbling ducks than in other functional groups. Trends in Anseriformes movements, abundance and breeding are also variable, and correlated with rainfall, which could explain low prevalence and the failure to detect seasonal differences in LPAI in wild birds. Virus prevalence of faecal samples was significantly lower, whereas collecting faecal samples was 3–5 times less expensive and logistically simpler, than that of cloacal samples. Overall priority areas for on-going surveillance are provided for Australia. Conclusions. Previous surveillance has occurred in high-priority areas, with the exception of Mareeba (North Queensland), Brisbane and Darwin, and has provided valuable information on the role of wild birds in maintaining avian influenza viruses. However, several practical considerations need to be addressed for future surveillance. Implications. Long-term surveillance studies in wild birds in priority areas are required, which incorporate information on bird abundance, age, behaviour, breeding and movements, particularly for dabbling ducks. This is important to validate trends of LPAI prevalence, in understanding the main determinants for virus spread and persistence, and in predicting and managing future epizootics of HPAI in Australia.

Detection of mortality clusters associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry: a theoretical analysis

Rapid detection of infectious disease outbreaks is often crucial for their effective control. One example is highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) such as H5N1 in commercial poultry flocks. There are no quantitative data, however, on how quickly the effects of HPAI infection in poultry flocks can be detected. Here, we study, using an individual-based mathematical model, time to detection in chicken flocks. Detection is triggered when mortality, food or water intake or egg production in layers pass recommended thresholds suggested from the experience of past HPAI outbreaks. We suggest a new threshold for caged flocks--the cage mortality detection threshold--as a more sensitive threshold than current ones. Time to detection is shown to depend nonlinearly on R0 and is particularly sensitive for R0<10. It also depends logarithmically on flock size and number of birds per cage. We also examine how many false alarms occur in uninfected flocks when we vary detection thresholds owing to background mortality. The false alarm rate is shown to be sensitive to detection thresholds, dependent on flock size and background mortality and independent of the length of the production cycle. We suggest that current detection thresholds appear sufficient to rapidly detect the effects of a high R0 HPAI strain such as H7N7 over a wide range of flock sizes. Time to detection of the effects of a low R0 HPAI strain such as H5N1 can be significantly improved, particularly for large flocks, by lowering detection thresholds, and this can be accomplished without causing excessive false alarms in uninfected flocks. The results are discussed in terms of optimizing the design of disease surveillance programmes in general.

Ecology of avian influenza virus in birds

Avian influenza A virus (an orthomyxovirus) is a zoonotic pathogen with a natural reservoir entirely in birds. The influenza virus genome is an 8-segment single-stranded RNA with high potential for in situ recombination. Two segments code for the hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N) antigens used for host-cell entry. At present, 16 H and 9 N subtypes are known, for a total of 144 possible different influenza subtypes, each with potentially different host susceptibility. With >10,000 species of birds found in nearly every terrestrial and aquatic habitat, there are few places on earth where birds cannot be found. The avian immune system differs from that of humans in several important features, including asynchronous B and T lymphocyte systems and a polymorphic multigene immune complex, but little is known about the immunogenetics of pathogenic response. Postbreeding dispersal and migration and a naturally high degree of environmental vagility mean that wild birds have the potential to be vectors that transmit highly pathogenic variants great distances from the original sources of infection.

Within-Flock Mortality During the High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (H7N7) Epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003: Implications for an Early Detection System

Daily within-flock mortality data, from a few days before until a few days after onset of increased mortality, from H7N7-infected flocks were analyzed with nonlinear regression for layer (organic and free-range or caged), broiler, and turkey flocks. The following notification thresholds were recommended for The Netherlands: 1) organic layer flocks, broiler flocks, and turkey flocks < or = 11 wk of age: > or = 0.5% mortality/day for two consecutive days; 2) layer flocks with birds housed in cages: > or = 0.25% mortality/day for two consecutive days; 3) turkey flocks > or = 16 wk of age: > or = 1% mortality/day for two consecutive days. Notification of increased mortality to the veterinary authorities should take place on the second day of increased mortality. Interpretation of mortality thresholds should be on the level of the poultry barn in which clinical problems arise. Because of nonoptimal specificity of proposed thresholds (mortality possibly caused by other diseases), use of PCR-diagnostics (results within 24 hr) without costs to the individual farmer should be promoted to exclude avian influenza in suspect clinical situations in order to minimize negative economic consequence for farmers and stimulate notification by farmers and veterinary practitioners.

Seroprevalance and identification of influenza A virus infection from migratory wild waterfowl in China (2004-2005)

Outbreaks of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) were reported in birds in more than eight Asian countries. We sought to identify the origin of this infection, and herein report the results of serological and virological monitoring of migrant wild waterfowl in mainland China. From a total of 493 serum samples, collected from 15 migratory wild waterfowl species for 9 months (from June 2004 to May 2005) in mainland China, we detected only low-level antibodies against influenza subtypes H2, H9 and H10 in the relict gull, little egret, black-crowned night heron, bar-tailed godwit, whimbrel and the common greenshank. No virus was identified from the 1052 cloacal and oropharyngeal swabs except dead bar-headed geese. These data show that the influenza type A virus subtypes H2-H13 did not circulate at detectable levels within the sampled population.

The spread of the H5N1 bird flu epidemic in Asia in 2004

H5N1 avian influenza has spread to eight countries in eastern Asia including China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, and Indonesia in early 2004. This H5N1 influenza A virus is extremely virulent in poultry including chickens and ducks, killing millions of birds throughout the region. Additionally this virus has transmitted to humans (mainly children) in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand, killing 54 of 100 diagnosed persons. To control this epidemic hundreds of millions of chickens and ducks have been culled. One genotype of H5N1 designated "Z" has become dominant in Asia. This virus was first detected in wild birds in Hong Kong in November 2002 and was antigenically distinct from H5N1 viruses isolated from 1997 to early 2002 and lethal for aquatic birds. The H5N1 virus infecting humans and poultry in Asia in 2004 is an antigenic variant of the Z genotype. Here we consider the possible role of migrating birds in the evolution and spread of the H5N1 influenza A virus throughout Asia. We conclude that the available information is consistent with a role for migrating birds but limited information is available and that serological studies are urgently needed on migrating birds worldwide. The prospect is that this H5N1/04 influenza A virus will become endemic in poultry in eastern Asia and will be a continuing threat to animal and human health. It is also projected that a human H5N1 vaccine will eventually be needed.