Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses

This review seeks to explain three features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed generations of virologists: (1) the seasonal timing of respiratory illness and the rapid response of outbreaks to weather, specifically temperature; (2) the common viruses causing respiratory illness worldwide, including year-round disease in the Tropics; (3) the rapid arrival and termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other viruses. The inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality is discussed, and a simple hypothesis is proposed, called temperature dependent viral tropism (TDVT), that is compatible with the above features of respiratory illness. TDVT notes that viruses can spread more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining host mobility) and suggests that endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific viral tropism within the human body, whereby they replicate most rapidly at temperatures below body temperature. This can confine them to the upper respiratory tract and allow them to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. Biochemical and tissue-culture studies show that 'wild' respiratory viruses show such natural thermal sensitivity. The typical early autumn surge of colds and the occurrence of respiratory illness in the Tropics year-round at intermediate levels are explained by the tendency for strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. TDVT has important practical implications for preventing and treating respiratory illness including Covid-19. It is testable with many options for experiments to increase our understanding of viral seasonality and pathogenicity.