SCALE-DEPENDENT CHANGES IN THE IMPORTANCE OF LARVAL SUPPLY AND HABITAT TO ABUNDANCE OF A REEF FISH

Kelp forests as nursery and foundational habitat for reef fishes

Conservation of marine biodiversity requires an understanding of the habitats needed to support and replenish species of interest. It also requires knowledge about the abundance and diversity of multispecies assemblages. Variation in the distribution and composition of kelp forests, one of the most productive marine coastal habitats globally, can have major influences on reef fishes-a group of ecologically and socioeconomically important species. In the face of widespread and escalating loss of kelp forests, quantification of these effects is urgently needed to assess and project cascading impacts on biodiversity. Here, we evaluate relationships between kelp forests and associated reef fish populations using a global meta-analysis of experimental kelp removals and comparative surveys of kelp and adjacent non-kelp habitats. These analyses show that kelp forests increase the abundance of reef fishes, though the significance of this effect varied depending on the structural complexity of kelp forests. In experimental studies, kelp forests have a significant positive effect on fish species richness, revealing that kelp act as true foundation species by supporting the diversity of associated multispecies assemblages. Importantly, regardless of kelp forest morphology and type of study (observational or experimental studies), kelp forests enhance the recruitment of early life history stages suggesting they are nursery habitats for many reef fish taxa. Lastly, kelp forests differentially affected species with different functional traits; small body size fishes from low trophic levels (e.g., herbivore and detritivores, micropredators, and mesopredators) and large body size fish from higher trophic level (e.g., piscivores, general carnivores) were both facilitated by kelp forests. Taken together, these results indicate that the loss of kelp forest, particularly those with more complex morphology, can reduce total abundance and diversity of fish, with possible cascading consequences for coastal ecosystem function.

Marine reserves can buffer against environmental fluctuations for overexploited but not sustainably harvested fisheries

Globally, decision-makers are seeking management levers that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change on ecosystems that have already been transformed from their natural state by the effects of fishing. An important question is whether marine reserves can provide buffering (i.e., population-level resilience) against climate disturbances to fished populations. Here, we examine one aspect of this question, by asking whether marine reserves can reduce the variability in either overall biomass or in fishery yield, in the face of environmental variability. This could happen because greater reproduction of longer-lived, larger fish inside reserves could supplement recruitment to the fished portion of the population. We addressed this question using age-structured population models, assuming a system where some proportion of the coastline is protected in marine reserves (0%-30%), and the remainder is fished (at a range of possible harvest rates). We modeled populations with sedentary adults and dispersal via a larval pool. Since recent extreme climate events (e.g., marine heatwaves) have reduced juvenile survival for some fish species, we assumed that environmental variability affected the survival of the first age class in our model. We viewed population variability as a question of buffering, measured as the proportion of time a simulated population spent below a target reference point, with the idea that marine reserves could prevent the population from reaching low levels in the face of fishing and environmental variability. We found that fisheries with more area in marine reserves always had less variability in biomass. However, adding marine reserves only reduced variability in fisheries yield when the fished part of the population was being harvested at a rate exceeding the maximum sustainable yield. This new result on reducing variability is in line with previous findings that the "spillover" effects of marine reserve benefits to fishery yields only accrue when the fishery outside reserve boundaries is being overharvested.

El Niño frequency threshold controls coastal biotic communities

El Niño has profound influences on ecosystem dynamics. However, we know little about how it shapes vertebrate faunal community composition over centennial time scales, and this limits our ability to forecast change under projections of future El Niño events. On the basis of correlations between geological records of past El Niño frequency and the species composition of bird and fish remains from a Baja California bone deposit that spans the past 12,000 years, we documented marked faunal restructuring when major El Niño events occurred more than five times per century. This tipping point has implications for the past and future ecology of eastern Pacific coastal environments.

No-take marine protected areas enhance the benefits of kelp-forest restoration for fish but not fisheries

Kelp habitat restoration is gaining traction as a management action to support recovery in areas affected by severe disturbances, thereby ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem services. Knowing when and where to restore is a major question. Using a single-species population model, we consider how restoring inside marine protected areas (MPAs) might benefit coastal fish populations and fisheries. We found that MPAs can greatly enhance the population benefits of restoration but at a small cost to fishery yields. Generally, restoring inside MPAs had a better overall gains-loss outcome, especially if the system is under high fishing pressure or severe habitat loss. However, restoring outside became preferable when predatory fish indirectly benefit kelp habitats. In either case, successful restoration actions may be difficult to detect in time-series data due to complex transient dynamics. We provide context for setting management goals and social expectations for the ecosystem service implications of restoration in MPAs.

Recruitment variability and sampling design interact to influence the detectability of protected area effects

Correctly identifying the effects of a human impact on a system is a persistent challenge in ecology, driven partly by the variable nature of natural systems. This is particularly true in many marine fishery species, which frequently experience large temporal fluctuations in recruitment that produce interannual variations in populations. This variability complicates efforts to maintain stocks at management targets or detect the effects of rebuilding efforts. We address this challenge in the context of no-take marine reserves by exploring how variable larval recruitment could interact with the timing of reserve establishment and choice of sampling design to affect population dynamics and the detectability of reserve effects. To predict population changes in the years following a no-take reserve implementation, we first tested for periodicity in larval recruitment in an important U.S. Pacific coast recreational fishery species (kelp bass, Paralabrax clathratus) and then included that pattern in a population model. We also used this model to determine the detectability of population increases under alternative sampling approaches and minimum age sampled. Kelp bass larval recruitment in the Channel Islands, California, peaked every about six (major) and about two (minor) years. Our model showed that establishing a reserve during a peak or trough enhanced or delayed, respectively, the post-reserve population increases. However, establishing a reserve during a recruitment peak could obscure a failing reserve, that is, a reserve that is unable to secure longer-term metapopulation persistence. Recruitment peaks and troughs also interacted with sampling design to affect the detectability of reserve effects. Designs that compared inside-outside were the most robust to variable recruitment, but failed to capture whether the reserve has improved metapopulation growth. Designs that included a time element (e.g., before-after) are more suited to assessing reserve effectiveness, but were sensitive to recruitment variation and detectability can change year-to-year. Notably, detectability did not always increase monotonically with reserve age; the optimal time for detectability depended on the minimum age of organisms sampled and was greatest when the cohort of a major recruitment peak first appeared in the sampling. We encourage managers to account for variable recruitment when planning monitoring and assessment programs.

High kelp density attracts fishes except for recruiting cryptobenthic species

As foundation species, kelp support productive and species rich communities; however, the effects of kelp structure on mobile species within these complex natural systems are often difficult to assess. We used artificial reefs with transplanted kelp to quantify the influence of kelp patch size and density on fish assemblages including the arrival of recruiting cryptobenthic species. Large patches with dense kelp supported the highest abundance, species richness, and diversity of fishes, with the addition of dense kelp tripling biomass and doubling richness. The abundance of recruits in artificial collectors declined with patch size and was halved on reefs with sparse kelp compared to reefs with dense kelp or no kelp. These results highlight the importance of dense kelp cover in facilitating biodiversity and indicate that kelp addition could support the recovery of degraded coastal ecosystems. Kelp also apparently drives complex interactions affecting the recruitment/behaviour of some cryptobenthic species.

Fitting state-space integral projection models to size-structured time series data to estimate unknown parameters

Integral projection models (IPMs) have a number of advantages over matrix-model approaches for analyzing size-structured population dynamics, because the latter require parameter estimates for each age or stage transition. However, IPMs still require appropriate data. Typically they are parameterized using individual-scale relationships between body size and demographic rates, but these are not always available. We present an alternative approach for estimating demographic parameters from time series of size-structured survey data using a Bayesian state-space IPM (SSIPM). By fitting an IPM in a state-space framework, we estimate unknown parameters and explicitly account for process and measurement error in a dataset to estimate the underlying process model dynamics. We tested our method by fitting SSIPMs to simulated data; the model fit the simulated size distributions well and estimated unknown demographic parameters accurately. We then illustrated our method using nine years of annual surveys of the density and size distribution of two fish species (blue rockfish, Sebastes mystinus, and gopher rockfish, S. carnatus) at seven kelp forest sites in California. The SSIPM produced reasonable fits to the data, and estimated fishing rates for both species that were higher than our Bayesian prior estimates based on coast-wide stock assessment estimates of harvest. That improvement reinforces the value of being able to estimate demographic parameters from local-scale monitoring data. We highlight a number of key decision points in SSIPM development (e.g., open vs. closed demography, number of particles in the state-space filter) so that users can apply the method to their own datasets.

Larval traits carry over to affect post-settlement behaviour in a common coral reef fish

Most reef fishes begin life as planktonic larvae before settling to the reef, metamorphosing and entering the benthic adult population. Different selective forces determine survival in the planktonic and benthic life stages, but traits established in the larval stage may carry over to affect post-settlement performance. We tested the hypothesis that larval traits affect two key post-settlement fish behaviours: social group-joining and foraging. Certain larval traits of reef fishes are permanently recorded in the rings in their otoliths. In the bluehead wrasse (Thalassoma bifasciatum), prior work has shown that key larval traits recorded in otoliths (growth rate, energetic condition at settlement) carry over to affect post-settlement survival on the reef, with higher-larval-condition fish experiencing less post-settlement mortality. We hypothesized that this selective mortality is mediated by carry-over effects on post-settlement antipredator behaviours. We predicted that better-condition fish would forage less and be more likely to join groups, both behaviours that would reduce predation risk. We collected 550 recently settled bluehead wrasse (Thalassoma bifasciatum) from three reef sites off St. Croix (USVI) and performed two analyses. First, we compared each settler's larval traits to the size of its social group to determine whether larval traits influenced group-joining behaviour. Secondly, we observed foraging behaviour in a subset of grouped and solitary fish (n = 14) for 1-4 days post-settlement. We then collected the fish and tested whether larval traits influenced the proportion of time spent foraging. Body length at settlement, but not condition, affected group-joining behaviour; smaller fish were more likely to remain solitary or in smaller groups. However, both greater length and better condition were associated with greater proportions of time spent foraging over four consecutive days post-settlement. Larval traits carry over to affect post-settlement behaviour, although not as we expected: higher quality larvae join groups more frequently (safer) but then forage more. Foraging is risky but may allow faster post-settlement growth, reducing mortality risk in the long run. This shows that behaviour likely serves as a mechanistic link connecting larval traits to post-settlement selective mortality.

Connectivity structures local population dynamics: a long-term empirical test in a large metapopulation system

Ecological theory predicts that demographic connectivity structures the dynamics of local populations within metapopulation systems, but empirical support has been constrained by major limitations in data and methodology. We tested this prediction for giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a key habitat-forming species in temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide, in southern California, USA. We combined a long-term (22 years), large-scale (~500 km coastline), high-resolution census of abundance with novel patch delineation methods and an innovative connectivity measure incorporating oceanographic transport and source fecundity. Connectivity strongly predicted local dynamics (well-connected patches had lower probabilities of extinction and higher probabilities of colonization, leading to greater likelihoods of occupancy) but this relationship was mediated by patch size. Moreover, the relationship between connectivity and local population dynamics varied over time, possibly due to temporal variation in oceanographic transport processes. Surprisingly, connectivity had a smaller influence on colonization relative to extinction, possibly because local ecological factors differ greatly between extinct and extant patches. Our results provide the first comprehensive evidence that southern California giant kelp populations function as a metapopulation system, challenging the view that populations of this important foundation species are governed exclusively by self-replenishment.

Small-scale spatial variation in population dynamics and fishermen response in a coastal marine fishery

A major challenge for small-scale fisheries management is high spatial variability in the demography and life history characteristics of target species. Implementation of local management actions that can reduce overfishing and maximize yields requires quantifying ecological heterogeneity at small spatial scales and is therefore limited by available resources and data. Collaborative fisheries research (CFR) is an effective means to collect essential fishery information at local scales, and to develop the social, technical, and logistical framework for fisheries management innovation. We used a CFR approach with fishing partners to collect and analyze geographically precise demographic information for grass rockfish (Sebastes rastrelliger), a sedentary, nearshore species harvested in the live fish fishery on the West Coast of the USA. Data were used to estimate geographically distinct growth rates, ages, mortality, and length frequency distributions in two environmental subregions of the Santa Barbara Channel, CA, USA. Results indicated the existence of two subpopulations; one located in the relatively cold, high productivity western Channel, and another in the relatively warm, low productivity eastern Channel. We parameterized yield per recruit models, the results of which suggested nearly twice as much yield per recruit in the high productivity subregion relative to the low productivity subregion. The spatial distribution of fishing in the two environmental subregions demonstrated a similar pattern to the yield per recruit outputs with greater landings, effort, and catch per unit effort in the high productivity subregion relative to the low productivity subregion. Understanding how spatial variability in stock dynamics translates to variability in fishery yield and distribution of effort is important to developing management plans that maximize fishing opportunities and conservation benefits at local scales.

Using GIS mapping of the extent of nearshore rocky reefs to estimate the abundance and reproductive output of important fishery species

Kelp Bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and California Sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher) are economically and ecologically valuable rocky reef fishes in southern California, making them likely indicator species for evaluating resource management actions. Multiple spatial datasets, aerial and satellite photography, underwater observations and expert judgment were used to produce a comprehensive map of nearshore natural rocky reef habitat for the Santa Monica Bay region (California, USA). It was then used to examine the relative contribution of individual reefs to a regional estimate of abundance and reproductive potential of the focal species. For the reefs surveyed for fishes (i.e. 18 out of the 22 in the region, comprising 82% the natural rocky reef habitat <30 m depth, with a total area of 1850 ha), total abundance and annual egg production of California Sheephead were 451 thousand fish (95% CI: 369 to 533 thousand) and 203 billion eggs (95% CI: 135 to 272 billion). For Kelp Bass, estimates were 805 thousand fish (95% CI: 669 to 941thousand) and 512 billion eggs (95% CI: 414 to 610 billion). Size structure and reef area were key factors in reef-specific contributions to the regional egg production. The size structures of both species illustrated impacts from fishing, and results demonstrate the potential that relatively small increases in the proportion of large females on larger reefs could have on regional egg production. For California Sheephead, a substantial proportion of the regional egg production estimate (>30%) was produced from a relatively small proportion of the regional reef area (c. 10%). Natural nearshore rocky reefs make up only 11% of the area in the newly designated MPAs in this region, but results provide some optimism that regional fisheries could benefit through an increase in overall reproductive output, if adequate increases in size structure of targeted species are realized.

Taking the chaos out of genetic patchiness: seascape genetics reveals ecological and oceanographic drivers of genetic patterns in three temperate reef species

Marine species frequently show weak and/or complex genetic structuring that is commonly dismissed as 'chaotic' genetic patchiness and ecologically uninformative. Here, using three datasets that individually feature weak chaotic patchiness, we demonstrate that combining inferences across species and incorporating environmental data can greatly improve the predictive value of marine population genetics studies on small spatial scales. Significant correlations in genetic patterns of microsatellite markers among three species, kelp bass Paralabrax clathratus, Kellet's whelk Kelletia kelletii and California spiny lobster Panulirus interruptus, in the Southern California Bight suggest that slight differences in diversity and pairwise differentiation across sampling sites are not simply noise or chaotic patchiness, but are ecologically meaningful. To test whether interspecies correlations potentially result from shared environmental drivers of genetic patterns, we assembled data on kelp bed size, sea surface temperature and estimates of site-to-site migration probability derived from a high resolution multi-year ocean circulation model. These data served as predictor variables in linear models of genetic diversity and linear mixed models of genetic differentiation that were assessed with information-theoretic model selection. Kelp was the most informative predictor of genetics for all three species, but ocean circulation also played a minor role for kelp bass. The shared patterns suggest a single spatial marine management strategy may effectively protect genetic diversity of multiple species. This study demonstrates the power of environmental and ecological data to shed light on weak genetic patterns and highlights the need for future focus on a mechanistic understanding of the links between oceanography, ecology and genetic structure.

Multi-scale recruitment patterns and effects on local population size of a temperate reef fish

Recruitment of the temperate reef fish Coris julis was studied across the Azores Archipelago (central North Atlantic), over four consecutive recruitment seasons and at three spatial scales: between islands (separated by 100s of km), sites within islands (separated by 10s of km) and transects within sites (separated by 10s of m). At the largest scale (i.e. between islands) spatial recruitment patterns were highly variable, suggesting the influence of stochastic processes. Recruitment was spatially consistent within islands, even though magnitude was unpredictable between years, indicating that processes at meso-scales are probably more deterministic. Recruits settled randomly at the transect scale, probably reflecting habitat homogeneity. It was proposed that large and island-scale patterns reflect larval availability, driven by physical and biological processes occurring in the plankton. No evidence was found for a density-dependent relationship between newly settled and 2 week settled C. julis nor between cumulative recruitment and young-of-the-year. It appears that adult density is limited by larval supply (pre-settlement regulation) at low recruitment sites, and determined by post-settlement, density-dependent processes at high recruitment sites. This work is one of few to investigate multiple spatial and temporal scales of recruitment for a coastal fish species inhabiting isolated, temperate oceanic islands and hence, provides a novel comparison to the many studies of recruitment on coral reefs and other, more connected systems.