Dynamic and context-dependent keystone species effects in kelp forests

Sea otters are an iconic keystone predator that can maintain kelp forests by preying on grazing invertebrates such as sea urchins. However, the effects of sea otters on kelp forests vary over their geographic range. Here, we analyze two 30-y datasets on kelp forest communities during the reintroduction of sea otters along the west coast of Vancouver Island, BC, Canada, and around San Nicolas Island, CA. We developed a community model to estimate species interactions as dynamic rates, varying with community state. We find evidence of a classic trophic cascade off Vancouver Island; the arrival of otters quickly led to depletion of urchins and recovery of kelp. However, this cascade was muted around San Nicolas Island, with otters, urchins, and kelp all coexisting at intermediate densities for multiple years. Our models show that this difference came from a pulse of strong otter impacts on urchins following recolonization off Vancouver Island, but not off San Nicolas Island. The mean effects of otters on urchins and urchins on kelp were not stronger in the north, indicating that interaction dynamics and not average interaction strength are key to explaining differences in community trajectories. We also find stronger multistep interaction chains in the south, arising from competitive interactions that indirectly buffered otter effects. These findings shed light on long-standing hypotheses about how interspecific interactions can alter the function of keystone species across community contexts. More broadly, we show how community change can be more accurately predicted by considering dynamic interaction strengths.

Exploring indirect effects of a classic trophic cascade between urchins and kelp on zooplankton and whales

Kelp forest trophic cascades have been extensively researched, yet indirect effects to the zooplankton prey base and gray whales have not been explored. We investigate the correlative patterns of a trophic cascade between bull kelp and purple sea urchins on gray whales and zooplankton in Oregon, USA. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), we assess (1) temporal dynamics of the four species across 8 years, and (2) possible trophic paths from urchins to kelp, kelp as habitat to zooplankton, and kelp and zooplankton to gray whales. Temporal GAMs revealed an increase in urchin coverage, with simultaneous decline in kelp condition, zooplankton abundance and gray whale foraging time. Trophic path GAMs, which tested for correlations between species, demonstrated that urchins and kelp were negatively correlated, while kelp and zooplankton were positively correlated. Gray whales showed nuanced and site-specific correlations with zooplankton in one site, and positive correlations with kelp condition in both sites. The negative correlation between the kelp-urchin trophic cascade and zooplankton resulted in a reduced prey base for gray whales. This research provides a new perspective on the vital role kelp forests may play across multiple trophic levels and interspecies linkages.

The Structure of Ecological Networks Across Levels of Organization

Interactions connect the units of ecological systems, forming networks. Individual-based networks characterize variation in niches among individuals within populations. These individual-based networks merge with each other, forming species-based networks and food webs that describe the architecture of ecological communities. Networks at broader spatiotemporal scales portray the structure of ecological interactions across landscapes and over macroevolutionary time. Here, I review the patterns observed in ecological networks across multiple levels of biological organization. A fundamental challenge is to understand the amount of interdependence as we move from individual-based networks to species-based networks and beyond. Despite the uneven distribution of studies, regularities in network structure emerge across scales due to the fundamental architectural patterns shared by complex networks and the interplay between traits and numerical effects. I illustrate the integration of these organizational scales by exploring the consequences of the emergence of highly connected species for network structures across scales.

Direct and indirect effects of temperature and prey abundance on bald eagle reproductive dynamics

Understanding the mechanisms by which populations are regulated is critical for predicting the effects of large-scale perturbations. While discrete mortality events provide clear evidence of direct impacts, indirect pathways are more difficult to assess but may play important roles in population and ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use multi-state occupancy models to analyze a long-term dataset on nesting bald eagles in south-central Alaska with the goal of identifying both direct and indirect mechanisms influencing reproductive output in this apex predator. We found that the probabilities of both nest occupancy and success were higher in the portion of the study area where water turbidity was low, supporting the hypothesis that access to aquatic prey is a critical factor limiting the reproductive output of eagles in this system. As expected, nest success was also positively related to salmon abundance; however, the negative effect of spring warmth suggested that access to salmon resources is indirectly diminished in warm springs as a consequence of increased glacial melt. Together, these findings reveal complex interrelationships between a critical prey resource and large-scale weather and climate processes which likely alter the accessibility of resources rather than directly affecting resource abundance. While important for understanding bald eagle reproductive dynamics in this system specifically, our results have broader implications that suggest complex interrelationships among system components.

Predatory fish invasion induces within and across ecosystem effects in Yellowstone National Park

Predatory fish introduction can cause cascading changes within recipient freshwater ecosystems. Linkages to avian and terrestrial food webs may occur, but effects are thought to attenuate across ecosystem boundaries. Using data spanning more than four decades (1972-2017), we demonstrate that lake trout invasion of Yellowstone Lake added a novel, piscivorous trophic level resulting in a precipitous decline of prey fish, including Yellowstone cutthroat trout. Plankton assemblages within the lake were altered, and nutrient transport to tributary streams was reduced. Effects across the aquatic-terrestrial ecosystem boundary remained strong (log response ratio ≤ 1.07) as grizzly bears and black bears necessarily sought alternative foods. Nest density and success of ospreys greatly declined. Bald eagles shifted their diet to compensate for the cutthroat trout loss. These interactions across multiple trophic levels both within and outside of the invaded lake highlight the potential substantial influence of an introduced predatory fish on otherwise pristine ecosystems.

Nest use dynamics of an undisturbed population of bald eagles

Management or conservation targets based on demographic rates should be evaluated within the context of expected population dynamics of the species of interest. Wild populations can experience stable, cyclical, or complex dynamics, therefore undisturbed populations can provide background needed to evaluate programmatic success. Many raptor species have recovered from large declines caused by environmental contaminants, making them strong candidates for ongoing efforts to understand population dynamics and ecosystem processes in response to human-caused stressors. Dynamic multistate occupancy models are a useful tool for analyzing species dynamics because they leverage the autocorrelation inherent in long-term monitoring datasets to obtain useful information about the dynamic properties of population or reproductive states. We analyzed a 23-year bald eagle monitoring dataset in a dynamic multistate occupancy modeling framework to assess long-term nest occupancy and reproduction in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska. We also used a hierarchical generalized linear model to understand changes in nest productivity in relation to environmental factors. Nests were most likely to remain in the same nesting state between years. Most notably, successful nests were likely to remain in use (either occupied or successful) and had a very low probability of transitioning to an unoccupied state in the following year. There was no apparent trend in the proportion of nests used by eagles through time, and the probability that nests transitioned into or out of the successful state was not influenced by temperature or salmon availability. Productivity was constant over the course of the study, although warm April minimum temperatures were associated with increased chick production. Overall our results demonstrate the expected nesting dynamics of a healthy bald eagle population that is largely free of human disturbance and can be used as a baseline for the expected dynamics for recovering bald eagle populations in the contiguous 48 states.

Indirect effects of sea otters on rockfish (Sebastes spp.) in giant kelp forests

Sea otters are a classic example of a predator controlling ecosystem productivity through cascading effects on basal, habitat-forming kelp species. However, their indirect effects on other kelp-associated taxa like fishes are poorly understood. We examined the effects of sea otter (Enhydra lutris) reintroduction along the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada on giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) distributions and the trophic niches and growth of two common kelp forest fishes, black (Sebastes melanops) and copper (S. caurinus) rockfishes. We sampled 47 kelp forests, and found that red sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) were eliminated in the presence of otters, and that kelp forests were 3.7 times deeper and 18.8 times larger. Despite order-of-magnitude differences in kelp forest size, adult black and copper rockfishes contained less kelp-derived carbon in their tissues (as measured by stable isotopes of C and N) in regions with otters. Adults of both species had higher mean trophic positions in the presence of otters, indicating more frequent consumption of higher trophic level prey such as fishes. Smaller trophic niche space of rockfishes in the presence of otters indicated a higher degree of trophic specialization. Juvenile black rockfishes rapidly shifted to higher kelp-carbon contents, trophic positions, and body condition factors after settling in kelp forests. The relationships of growth to length, percentage of kelp carbon, and trophic position varied between the two regions, indicating that potential effects of kelp forest size on trophic ontogeny may also affect individual performance. Our results provide evidence that the indirect effects of otters on rockfishes arise largely through the creation of habitat for fishes and other prey rather than a direct trophic connection through invertebrates or other consumers of kelp productivity.

Disturbance, Complexity, Scale: New Approaches to the Study of Human–Environment Interactions

New approaches to human–environment interactions are beginning to move beyond a narrow focus on individuals and simple (patch-level) predatory or competitive interactions. These approaches link nonequilibrium theory from community and landscape ecology with theories of individual decision making from behavioral ecology to explore new ways of approaching complex issues of diachronic change in behavior, subsistence, and social institutions. I provide an overview of two such approaches, one to understand long-term hunting sustainability among mixed forager-horticulturalists in the wet tropics and the other to understand how foragers act as ecosystem engineers in a dry perennial grassland in Australia. I conclude by describing the implications of new approaches that incorporate anthropogenic “intermediate” disturbance (an emergent property of human–environment interaction) as a force shaping environments through time and space, and in so doing patterning the sustainability of subsistence, ways of sharing, ownership norms, and even structures of gendered production.

Testing the nutritional-limitation, predator-avoidance, and storm-avoidance hypotheses for restricted sea otter habitat use in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) inhabiting the Aleutian Islands have stabilized at low abundance levels following a decline and currently exhibit restricted habitat-utilization patterns. Possible explanations for restricted habitat use by sea otters can be classified into two fundamentally different processes, bottom-up and top-down forcing. Bottom-up hypotheses argue that changes in the availability or nutritional quality of prey resources have led to the selective use of habitats that support the highest quality prey. In contrast, top-down hypotheses argue that increases in predation pressure from killer whales have led to the selective use of habitats that provide the most effective refuge from killer whale predation. A third hypothesis suggests that current restricted habitat use is based on a need for protection from storms. We tested all three hypotheses for restricted habitat use by comparing currently used and historically used sea otter foraging locations for: (1) prey availability and quality, (2) structural habitat complexity, and (3) exposure to prevailing storms. Our findings suggest that current use is based on physical habitat complexity and not on prey availability, prey quality, or protection from storms, providing further evidence for killer whale predation as a cause for restricted sea otter habitat use in the Aleutian Islands.

Sea otters homogenize mussel beds and reduce habitat provisioning in a rocky intertidal ecosystem

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) are keystone predators that consume a variety of benthic invertebrates, including the intertidal mussel, Mytilus californianus. By virtue of their competitive dominance, large size, and longevity, M. californianus are ecosystem engineers that form structurally complex beds that provide habitat for diverse invertebrate communities. We investigated whether otters affect mussel bed characteristics (i.e. mussel length distributions, mussel bed depth, and biomass) and associated community structure (i.e. biomass, alpha and beta diversity) by comparing four regions that varied in their histories of sea otter occupancy on the west coast of British Columbia and northern Washington. Mussel bed depth and average mussel lengths were 1.5 times lower in regions occupied by otters for >20 years than those occupied for <5 yrs. Diversity of mussel bed associated communities did not differ between regions; however, the total biomass of species associated with mussel beds was more than three-times higher where sea otters were absent. We examined alternative explanations for differences in mussel bed community structure, including among-region variation in oceanographic conditions and abundance of the predatory sea star Pisaster ochraceus. We cannot discount multiple drivers shaping mussel beds, but our findings indicate the sea otters are an important one. We conclude that, similar to their effects on subtidal benthic invertebrates, sea otters reduce the size distributions of intertidal mussels and, thereby, habitat available to support associated communities. Our study indicates that by reducing populations of habitat-providing intertidal mussels, sea otters may have substantial indirect effects on associated communities.

Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems.

Trophic downgrading of planet Earth

Until recently, large apex consumers were ubiquitous across the globe and had been for millions of years. The loss of these animals may be humankind's most pervasive influence on nature. Although such losses are widely viewed as an ethical and aesthetic problem, recent research reveals extensive cascading effects of their disappearance in marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. This empirical work supports long-standing theory about the role of top-down forcing in ecosystems but also highlights the unanticipated impacts of trophic cascades on processes as diverse as the dynamics of disease, wildfire, carbon sequestration, invasive species, and biogeochemical cycles. These findings emphasize the urgent need for interdisciplinary research to forecast the effects of trophic downgrading on process, function, and resilience in global ecosystems.

Using ecological function to develop recovery criteria for depleted species: sea otters and kelp forests in the Aleutian archipelago

Recovery criteria for depleted species or populations normally are based on demographic measures, the goal being to maintain enough individuals over a sufficiently large area to assure a socially tolerable risk of future extinction. Such demographically based recovery criteria may be insufficient to restore the functional roles of strongly interacting species. We explored the idea of developing a recovery criterion for sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in the Aleutian archipelago on the basis of their keystone role in kelp forest ecosystems. We surveyed sea otters and rocky reef habitats at 34 island-time combinations. The system nearly always existed in either a kelp-dominated or deforested phase state, which was predictable from sea otter density. We used a resampling analysis of these data to show that the phase state at any particular island can be determined at 95% probability of correct classification with information from as few as six sites. When sea otter population status (and thus the phase state of the kelp forest) was allowed to vary randomly among islands, just 15 islands had to be sampled to estimate the true proportion that were kelp dominated (within 10%) with 90% confidence. We conclude that kelp forest phase state is a more appropriate, sensitive, and cost-effective measure of sea otter recovery than the more traditional demographically based metrics, and we suggest that similar approaches have broad potential utility in establishing recovery criteria for depleted populations of other functionally important species.

Causes and consequences of marine mammal population declines in southwest Alaska: a food-web perspective

Populations of sea otters, seals and sea lions have collapsed across much of southwest Alaska over the past several decades. The sea otter decline set off a trophic cascade in which the coastal marine ecosystem underwent a phase shift from kelp forests to deforested sea urchin barrens. This interaction in turn affected the distribution, abundance and productivity of numerous other species. Ecological consequences of the pinniped declines are largely unknown. Increased predation by transient (marine mammal-eating) killer whales probably caused the sea otter declines and may have caused the pinniped declines as well. Springer et al. proposed that killer whales, which purportedly fed extensively on great whales, expanded their diets to include a higher percentage of sea otters and pinnipeds following a sharp reduction in great whale numbers from post World War II industrial whaling. Critics of this hypothesis claim that great whales are not now and probably never were an important nutritional resource for killer whales. We used demographic/energetic analyses to evaluate whether or not a predator-prey system involving killer whales and the smaller marine mammals would be sustainable without some nutritional contribution from the great whales. Our results indicate that while such a system is possible, it could only exist under a narrow range of extreme conditions and is therefore highly unlikely.

Sources of organochlorine contaminants and mercury in seabirds from the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska: inferences from spatial and trophic variation

Persistent organochlorine compounds and mercury (Hg) have been detected in numerous coastal organisms of the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska, yet sources of these contaminants are unclear. We collected glaucous-winged gulls, northern fulmars, and tufted puffins along a natural longitudinal gradient across the western and central Aleutian Islands (Buldir, Kiska, Amchitka, Adak), and an additional 8 seabird species representing different foraging and migratory guilds from Buldir Island to evaluate: 1) point source input from former military installations, 2) westward increases in contaminant concentrations suggestive of distant source input, and 3) effects of trophic status (delta15N) and carbon source (delta13C) on contaminant accumulation. Concentrations of Sigma polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and most chlorinated pesticides in glaucous-winged gulls consistently exhibited a 'U'-shaped pattern of high levels at Buldir and the east side of Adak and low levels at Kiska and Amchitka. In contrast, concentrations of Sigma PCBs and chlorinated pesticides in northern fulmars and tufted puffins did not differ among islands. Hg concentrations increased westward in glaucous-winged gulls and were highest in northern fulmars from Buldir. Among species collected only at Buldir, Hg was notably elevated in pelagic cormorants, and relatively high Sigma PCBs were detected in black-legged kittiwakes. Concentrations of Sigma PCBs, dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p' DDE), and Hg were positively correlated with delta15N across all seabird species, indicating biomagnification across trophic levels. The east side of Adak Island (a former military installation) was a likely point source of Sigma PCBs and p,p' DDE, particularly in glaucous-winged gulls. In contrast, elevated levels of these contaminants and Hg, along with PCB congener and chlorinated pesticide compositional patterns detected at Buldir Island indicated exposure from distant sources influenced by a combination of atmospheric-oceanic processes and the migratory movements of seabirds.