Estimating the effects of excess nutrients on stream invertebrates from observational data

Establishing riverine nutrient criteria using individual taxa thresholds

Nutrient enrichment is one of the most pervasive impacts on aquatic ecosystems globally. Approaches to establish nutrient criteria that safeguard aquatic ecosystem health are highly variable and, in many instances, criteria are derived from correlations between in-situ nutrient concentrations and biological indices. Summarising entire assemblages with a single index can result in a substantial loss of information and potentially weaker relationships. In this study, we compared the derivation of nutrient criteria using biological indices and those from individual taxa for rivers and streams in New Zealand. Random forest models, including nutrient concentrations, were built to predict two biological indices and individual taxa across New Zealand's river monitoring network. For all acceptable models, the response of the biological indices and individual taxa to increasing Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN) and Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus (DRP) were then predicted for every river reach across the nation, and nutrient concentrations that protected 80% of taxa were then identified. Models for the biological indices were poor but were good for most of the taxa, with nutrient concentrations almost always being the most influential factor. To ensure persistence of at least 80% of the taxa within a river reach, we estimated that DIN (Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen) concentrations would need to be below 0.57-1.32 mg/L, and DRP (Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus) concentrations below 0.019-0.033 mg/L, depending on the river type. In general, high order, low slope rivers and streams required more stringent nutrient criteria than steep, low order streams. The link between nutrient concentrations and biological indices were weak and likely suffer from the loss of information from summarising an entire assemblage into a single numeric. We consider that the derivation of nutrient criteria for waterways should also examine the individual relationships with the taxa in a river system to establish protection for a desired proportion of taxa.

Quantifying spatial and temporal relationships between diatoms and nutrients in streams strengthens evidence of nutrient effects from monitoring data

Observational data are frequently used to better understand the effects of changes in P and N on stream biota, but nutrient gradients in streams are usually associated with gradients in other environmental factors, a phenomenon that complicates efforts to accurately estimate the effects of nutrients. Here, we propose a new approach for analyzing observational data in which we compare the effects of changes in nutrient concentrations in time within individual sites and in space among many sites. Covarying relationships between other, potentially confounding environmental factors and nutrient concentrations are unlikely to be the same in both time and space, and, therefore, estimated effects of nutrients that are similar in time and space are more likely to be accurate. We applied this approach to diatom rbcL metabarcoding data collected from streams in the East Fork of the Little Miami River watershed, Ohio, USA. Changes in diatom assemblage composition were consistently associated with changes in the concentration of total reactive P in both time and space. In contrast, despite being associated with spatial differences in ammonia and urea concentrations, diatom assemblage composition was not associated with temporal changes in these nitrogen species. We suggest that the results of this analysis provide evidence of a causal effect of increased P on diatom assemblage composition. We further analyzed the effects of temporal variability in measurements of total reactive P and found that averaging periods greater than ~1 wk prior to sampling best represented the effects of P on the diatom assemblage. Comparisons of biological responses in space and time can sharpen insights beyond those that are based on analyses conducted on only 1 of the 2 dimensions.

Sensitivity and specificity of macroinvertebrate responses to gradients of multiple agricultural stressors

Environmental degradation of rivers in agricultural landscapes is typically caused by multiple co-occurring stressors, but how interactions among stressors affect freshwater ecosystems is poorly understood. Therefore, we investigated the sensitivity and specificity of several measures of benthic macroinvertebrate community response to the individual and combined effects of the pesticide sulfoxaflor (SFX), increased sand sedimentation and elevated nutrients using outdoor recirculating mesocosms. Among the single stressor treatments, nutrients had no observable impact and sand only affected one community response measure compared to controls. High SFX levels had the largest effects on benthic macroinvertebrate communities, negatively affecting six of seven macroinvertebrate response measures. Sulfoxaflor had similar adverse effects on biota when in combination with sand and nutrients in the multi-stressor treatment, suggesting that generally SFX has overwhelming and pervasive effects irrespective of the presence of the other stressors. In contrast to SFX, elevated nutrients had no detectable effect on macroinvertebrate communities, likely as a consequence of nutrients being rapidly taken up by bacteria rather than by benthic algae. Elevated sand sedimentation increased the negative effects of SFX on sediment sensitive taxa, but generally had limited biological effects. This was despite the levels of sedimentation in our treatments being at concentrations that have caused large impacts in other studies. This research points to direct and rapid toxic effects of SFX on stream macroinvertebrates, contrasting with effects of the other stressors. This study emphasises that pesticide effects could be misattributed to other common freshwater stressors, potentially focussing restoration actions on a stressor of lesser importance.

Multiple in-stream stressors degrade biological assemblages in five U.S. regions

Biological assemblages in streams are affected by a wide variety of physical and chemical stressors associated with land-use development, yet the importance of combinations of different types of stressors is not well known. From 2013 to 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey completed multi-stressor/multi-assemblage stream ecological assessments in five regions of the United States (434 streams total). Diatom, invertebrate, and fish communities were enumerated, and five types of potential stressors were quantified: habitat disturbance, excess nutrients, high flows, basic water quality, and contaminants in water and sediment. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models for each biological assemblage and region generally included variables from all five stressor types and multiple stressors types in each model was the norm. Classification and regression tree (CART) models then were used to determine thresholds for each BRT model variable above which there appeared to be adverse effects (multi-metric index (MMI) models only). In every region and assemblage there was a significant inverse relation between the MMI and the number of stressors exerting potentially adverse effects. The number of elevated instream stressors often varied substantially for a given level of land-use development and the number of elevated stressors was a better predictor of biological condition than was development. Using the adverse effects-levels that were developed based on the BRT model results, 68% of the streams had two or more stressors with potentially adverse effects and 35% had four or more. Our results indicate that relatively small increases in the number of stressors of different types can have a large effect on a stream ecosystem.

Functional traits reveal the dominant drivers of long-term community change across a North American Great Lake

Ecosystems worldwide have been impacted by multiple anthropogenic stressors, yet efforts to understand and manage these impacts have been hindered by difficulties in disentangling relative stressor effects. Theoretically, the actions of individual stressors can be delineated based on associated changes in functional traits and these relationships should be generalizable across communities comprised of different species. Thus, combining trait perspectives with community composition data could help to identify the relative influence of different stressors. We evaluated the utility of this combined approach by quantifying shifts in fish species and trait composition in Lake Erie during the past 50 years (1969-2018) in relation to human-driven changes in nutrient inputs, climate warming, and biological invasions. Species and trait shifts were also compared between two Lake Erie basins, which differ in their environmental and biological characteristics, to identify trait responses that were generalizable across different ecosystems versus those that were context dependent. Our analyses revealed consistent species changes across basins, and shifts in feeding and thermal traits, that were primarily associated with altered nutrient inputs (oligotrophication followed by eutrophication). We found no or inconsistent trait-based evidence for the effects of warming and two invasive fishes. Context-dependent trait responses were also evident; nutrient inputs were related to shifts in species tolerant of turbidity in the shallow, eutrophic western basin, which contrasted to shifts between benthopelagic and benthic species in the deeper central basin. Our results reveal the dominant effects of specific stressors on a large freshwater lake and offer a framework for combining species-based and trait-based approaches to delineate the impacts of simultaneous stressors on communities of perturbed natural ecosystems.

Nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment cause declines in invertebrate populations: a global meta-analysis

Human-driven changes in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs are modifying biogeochemical cycles and the trophic state of many habitats worldwide. These alterations are predicted to continue to increase, with the potential for a wide range of impacts on invertebrates, key players in ecosystem-level processes. Here, we present a meta-analysis of 1679 cases from 207 studies reporting the effects of N, P, and combined N + P enrichment on the abundance, biomass, and richness of aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates. Nitrogen and phosphorus additions decreased invertebrate abundance in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, with stronger impacts under combined N + P additions. Likewise, N and N + P additions had stronger negative impacts on the abundance of tropical than temperate invertebrates. Overall, the effects of nutrient enrichment did not differ significantly among major invertebrate taxonomic groups, suggesting that changes in biogeochemical cycles are a pervasive threat to invertebrate populations across ecosystems. The effects of N and P additions differed significantly among invertebrate trophic groups but N + P addition had a consistent negative effect on invertebrates. Nutrient additions had weaker or inconclusive impacts on invertebrate biomass and richness, possibly due to the low number of case studies for these community responses. Our findings suggest that N and P enrichment affect invertebrate community structure mainly by decreasing invertebrate abundance, and these effects are dependent on the habitat and trophic identity of the invertebrates. These results highlight the important effects of human-driven nutrient enrichment on ecological systems and suggest a potential driver for the global invertebrate decline documented in recent years.

Geology-dependent impacts of forest conversion on stream fish diversity

Forest conversion is one of the greatest global threats to biodiversity, and land-use change and subsequent biodiversity declines sometimes occur over a variety of underlying geologies. However, how forest conversion and underlying geology interact to alter biodiversity is underappreciated, although spatial variability in geology is considered an integral part of sustaining ecosystems. We aimed to examine the effects of forest conversion to farmland, the underlying geology, and their interaction on the stream fishes' diversity, evenness, and abundance in northeastern Japan. We disentangled complex pathways between abiotic and biotic factors with structural equation modeling. Species diversity of stream fishes was indirectly shaped by the interaction of land use and underlying geology. Diversity declined due to nutrient enrichment associated with farmlands, which was mainly the result of changes in evenness rather than by changes in species richness. This impact was strongest in streams with volcanic geology with coarse substrates probably because of the differential responses of abundant stream fishes to nutrient enrichment (i.e., dominance) and the high dependency of these fishes on large streambed materials during their life cycles. Our findings suggest that remediation of deforested or degraded forest landscapes would be more efficient if the interaction between land use and underlying geology was considered. For example, the negative impacts of farmland on evenness were larger in streams with volcanic geology than in other stream types, suggesting that riparian forest restoration along such streams would efficiently provide restoration benefits to stream fishes. Our results also suggest that land clearing around such streams should be avoided to conserve species evenness of stream fishes.

Matching methods to quantify wildfire effects on forest carbon mass in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Forest wildfires consume and redistribute carbon within forest carbon pools. Because the incidence of wildfires is unpredictable, quantifying wildfire effects is challenging due to the lack of prefire data or controls from experiments over a large landscape. We explored a quasi-experimental method, propensity score matching, to estimate wildfire effects on aboveground forest woody carbon mass in Washington and Oregon, United States. Observational data, including national forest inventory plot measurements and satellite imagery metrics, were utilized to obtain a control set of unburned plots that are comparable to burned plots in terms of environmental conditions as well as spatial locations. Three matching methods were implemented: propensity score matching (PSM), spatial matching (SM), and distance-adjusted propensity score matching (DAPSM). We investigated if propensity score matching with and without spatial adjustment led to different outcomes in terms of (1) balance in covariate distributions between burned and control plots, (2) mean carbon mass obtained from the selected control plots compared to burned and all unburned plots, and (3) estimates of wildfire effects by burn severity. We found that PSM and SM, which use only the environmental covariate set or the spatial distance for estimating propensity scores, respectively, did not appear to produce a comparable set of control plots in terms of the estimated propensity scores and the outcomes of mean carbon mass. DAPSM was the preferred method both in balancing the observed covariates and in dealing with unobservable confounding variables through spatial adjustment. The average wildfire effects estimated by DAPSM showed clear evidence of redistribution of carbon among aboveground woody pools, from live to dead trees, but the consumption of total woody carbon by wildfire was not substantial. Only moderate burn severity led to significant reduction of total woody carbon mass across Washington and Oregon forests (64% of control plots remained on average). This study provides an applied example of a quasi-experimental approach to quantify the effects of a natural disturbance for which experimental settings are unavailable. The study results suggest that incorporating spatial information in addition to environmental covariates would yield a comparable set of control plots for wildfire effects quantification.

Transport of N and P in U.S. streams and rivers differs with land use and between dissolved and particulate forms

We used a recently published, open-access data set of U.S. streamwater nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations to test whether watershed land use differentially influences N and P concentrations, including the relative availability of dissolved and particulate nutrient fractions. We tested the hypothesis that N and P concentrations and molar ratios in streams and rivers of the United States reflect differing nutrient inputs from three dominant land-use types (agricultural, urban and forested). We also tested for differences between dissolved inorganic nutrients and suspended particulate nutrient fractions to infer sources and potential processing mechanisms across spatial and temporal scales. Observed total N and P concentrations often exceeded reported thresholds for structural changes to benthic algae (58, 57% of reported values, respectively), macroinvertebrates (39% for TN and TP), and fish (41, 37%, respectively). The majority of dissolved N and P concentrations exceeded threshold concentrations known to stimulate benthic algal growth (85, 87%, respectively), and organic matter breakdown rates (94, 58%, respectively). Concentrations of both N and P, and total and dissolved N:P ratios, were higher in streams and rivers with more agricultural and urban than forested land cover. The pattern of elevated nutrient concentrations with agricultural and urban land use was weaker for particulate fractions. The % N contained in particles decreased slightly with higher agriculture and urbanization, whereas % P in particles was unrelated to land use. Particulate N:P was relatively constant (interquartile range = 2-7) and independent of variation in DIN:DIP (interquartile range = 22-152). Dissolved, but not particulate, N:P ratios were temporally variable. Constant particulate N:P across steep DIN:DIP gradients in both space and time suggests that the stoichiometry of particulates across U.S. watersheds is most likely controlled either by external or by physicochemical instream factors, rather than by biological processing within streams. Our findings suggest that most U.S. streams and rivers have concentrations of N and P exceeding those considered protective of ecological integrity, retain dissolved N less efficiently than P, which is retained proportionally more in particles, and thus transport and export high N:P streamwater to downstream ecosystems on a continental scale.

Life in the slow drain: Landscape structure affects farm ditch water quality

Agrichemical contamination is a major threat to aquatic ecosystems in farmland. There is a need to better understand the influence of the surrounding landscape on farm wetlands to recommend land management options that minimize water quality impacts from agricultural practices. We tested hypothesized relationships between landscape structure and multiple water quality measures in farm drainage ditches in a multi-landscape study in Eastern Ontario, Canada. We measured physicochemical water quality (levels of atrazine, glyphosate, neonicotinoid insecticides, inorganic nitrogen, and dissolved oxygen), and biological water quality indicators (aquatic macroinvertebrate richness, leaf litter decomposition, and Ceriodaphnia dubia population responses) in 27 farm ditches, and measured the amounts of forest cover and high-intensity crop cover (landscape composition), and field edge cover (landscape configuration) in 1-km radius landscapes surrounding each ditch sampling site. We used confirmatory path analysis to simultaneously model the direct and indirect relationships between the landscape predictors and water quality variables. Landscape composition measures were the strongest predictors of water quality: pesticides decreased as surrounding forest cover increased, and nitrogen increased with increasing amounts of high-intensity crop cover. Crop cover was also indirectly negatively related to macroinvertebrate richness via its effects on nitrogen and dissolved oxygen. We found no effects of landscape configuration on agrichemical levels, but there was some support for a positive relationship between macroinvertebrate richness and field edge cover. Our results indicate that aquatic macroinvertebrate richness is strongly impacted by fertilizer use in our region, and that macroinvertebrate richness is a more sensitive biotic indicator of farmland water quality than leaf litter decomposition or C. dubia responses. We conclude that, in our region, landscape management to improve farmland water quality should focus primarily on landscape composition. Such management should aim to increase amounts of non-crop cover such as forest, and reduce amounts of crop cover with high agrichemical inputs.

Downstream Effects of Upstream Causes

The United States Environmental Protection Agency considers nutrient pollution in stream ecosystems one of the U.S.' most pressing environmental challenges. But limited independent replicates, lack of experimental randomization, and space- and time-varying confounding handicap causal inference on effects of nutrient pollution. In this paper the causal g-methods are extended to allow for exposures to vary in time and space in order to assess the effects of nutrient pollution on chlorophyll a - a proxy for algal production. Publicly available data from North Carolina's Cape Fear River and a simulation study are used to show how causal effects of upstream nutrient concentrations on downstream chlorophyll a levels may be estimated from typical water quality monitoring data. Estimates obtained from the parametric g-formula, a marginal structural model, and a structural nested model indicate that chlorophyll a concentrations at Lock and Dam 1 were influenced by nitrate concentrations measured 86 to 109 km upstream, an area where four major industrial and municipal point sources discharge wastewater.

Substrate degradation and nutrient enrichment structuring macroinvertebrate assemblages in agriculturally dominated Lake Chaohu Basins, China

Rapid agricultural development has induced severe environmental problems to freshwater ecosystems. In this study, we aimed to examine the structure and environmental determinants of macroinvertebrate assemblages in an agriculture dominated Lake Chaohu Basin, China. A cluster analysis of the macroinvertebrate communities identified four groups of sites that were characterized by significantly different macroinvertebrate species. These four groups of sites had concentric spatial distribution patterns that followed the variation in the environmental conditions from the less anthropogenically disturbed headwaters towards the more anthropogenically disturbed lower reaches of the rivers and the Lake Chaohu. Moreover, taxa richness decreased from the headwaters towards the Lake Chaohu. The increasing practice of agriculture has reduced the abundances and richness of pollution sensitive species while opposite effects on pollution tolerant species. The study identified substrate heterogeneity and nutrient concentrations as the key environmental factors regulating the changes in the macroinvertebrate communities. We propose that particular attentions should be paid to reduce the nutrient enrichment and habitat degradation in the Lake Chaohu Basin and similar agriculture dominated basins.

The effects of nutrients on stream invertebrates: a regional estimation by generalized propensity score

INTRODUCTION

The effects of nutrients on stream conditions within individual streams or small areas have been studied extensively, but the same effects over a large region have rarely been examined due to the difficulty of applying large-scale manipulative experiments. In this study, we estimated the causal effects of nutrients within the Western United States on invertebrate richness, an important biological indicator of stream conditions, by using observational data.

METHODS

We used the generalized propensity score method to avoid the common problem of statistical inference using observational data, i.e., correlation established based on observational data does not imply a causal relationship because the effects of confounding factors are not properly separated.

RESULTS

Our analysis showed a subsidy-stress relationship between nutrients and invertebrate taxon richness in the whole Western United States and in its sub-ecoregions. The magnitude of the relationship varies among these sub-ecoregions, suggesting a varying nitrogen effect on macroinvertebrates due, in large part, to the varying natural and anthropogenic conditions from ecoregion to ecoregion. Furthermore, our analysis confirmed that causal estimation results using regression can be sensitive to the imbalance of confounding factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Stratifying data into ecoregions with relatively homogeneous environmental conditions or adjusting data by generalized propensity score can improve the balance of confounding factors, thereby allowing more reliable causal inference of nutrient effects. Invertebrates respond to the same nutrient levels differently across different site conditions.

Macroinvertebrate and fish communities in the watershed of a re-constructed Mediterranean water body: link to the ecological potential

The role of benthic macroinvertebrate and fish communities for assessing the ecological quality of an artificial re-constructed, after 50 years of dryness, Mediterranean water body (Karla Reservoir, Greece) is presented. Moreover, we provide knowledge on the structure of the biological communities and their functioning role, for inspiring feature actions that will contribute to biodiversity protection and ecosystem services. Water (physicochemical parameters), benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish were monitored during a 2-year survey (2013-2015) in Karla and Kalamaki reservoirs and the inflowing ditches. A clear temporal pattern was evident for all sampling stations studied, differentiating the low- and high-flow period samples as to their physicochemical parameters. Redundancy analysis (RDA) revealed NO₃-N, total nitrogen and total dissolved phosphorous as the most significant environmental parameters in explaining benthic invertebrate variance in ditches. Generally, tolerant to organic pollution macroinvertebrate taxa were abundant in ditches and reservoirs, while the fish fauna in Karla was composed almost exclusively of planktivorous and invertivorous species. Macroinvertebrate (GLBiI) and fish (GLFI) indices classified the ecological quality of Karla Reservoir as "poor" while ditches were classified as "bad" according to HESY-2. The anthropogenic pressures applied in the catchment and the benefits of improving water quality are discussed in the context of the implementation of Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC for introducing sustainable management plans, taking into account some ecological restoration principles.

Chironomidae traits and life history strategies as indicators of anthropogenic disturbance

In freshwater ecosystems, Chironomidae are currently considered indicators of poor water quality because the family is often abundant in degraded sites. However, it incorporates taxa with a large ecological and physiological diversity and different sensitivity to impairment. Yet, the usual identification of Chironomidae at coarse taxonomic levels (family or subfamily) masks genus and species sensitivities. In this study, we investigate the potential of taxonomic and functional (traits) composition of Chironomidae to detect anthropogenic disturbance. In this context, we tested some a priori hypotheses regarding the ability of Chironomidae taxonomic and trait compositions to discriminate Mediterranean streams affected by multiple stressors from least-disturbed streams. Both taxonomic and Eltonian trait composition discriminated sites according to their disturbance level. Disturbance resulted in the predicted increase of Chironomidae with higher number of stages with hibernation/diapause and of taxa with resistance forms and unpredicted increase of the proportion of taxa with longer life cycles and few generations per year. Life history strategies (LHS), corresponding to multivoltine Chironomidae that do not invest in hemoglobin and lack strong spring synchronization, were well adapted to all our Mediterranean sites with highly changeable environmental conditions. Medium-size animals favored in disturbed sites where the Mediterranean hydrological regime is altered, but the reduced number of larger-size/carnivore Chironomids suggests a limitation to secondary production. Results indicate that Chironomidae genus and respective traits could be a useful tool in the structural and functional assessment of Mediterranean streams. The ubiquitous nature of Chironomidae should be also especially relevant in the assessment of water bodies naturally poor in other groups such as the Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, such as the lowland rivers with sandy substrates, lakes, or reservoirs.

Estimating the effects of land use at different scales on high ecological status in Irish rivers

High ecological status at river sites is an indicator of minimal disturbance from anthropogenic activities and the presence of ecologically important species and communities. However, a lack of clarity on what factors cause sites to lose high ecological status is limiting the ability to maintain the quality of these sites. Examination of ecological status records at 508 high status river sites throughout the Republic of Ireland revealed that 337 had fallen below high status at some point between 2001 and 2012 due to changes in invertebrate communities. A geographical information system was used to characterise land use and environmental variables in the catchment, riparian and reach areas upstream of the sites. The relationships between these variables at the three spatial scales and whether or not river sites had maintained high ecological status were then estimated by multiple logistic regression and propensity modelling. The results indicated that grassland at either catchment or riparian scales had a greater negative impact on high ecological status than at the reach scale. This effect appeared to be strongest for upland, steeply sloping rivers that are subject to high rainfall, possibly due to the presence of sensitive biota and/or a greater potential for erosion. These results highlighted the need for better management of grassland upstream of the high status sites, with a focus on river alterations and critical source areas of nutrients, sediments and pesticides that are hydrologically connected to the river. Sustainable management practices and land use planning in those areas will need to be considered carefully if the aim of maintaining high ecological status at river sites is to be achieved.

Resolving large-scale pressures on species and ecosystems: propensity modelling identifies agricultural effects on streams

Although agriculture is amongst the world's most widespread land uses, studies of its effects on stream ecosystems are often limited in spatial extent. National monitoring data could extend spatial coverage and increase statistical power, but present analytical challenges where covarying environmental variables confound relationships of interest.

Propensity modelling is used widely outside ecology to control for confounding variables in observational data. Here, monitoring data from over 3000 English and Welsh river reaches are used to assess the effects of intensive agricultural land cover (arable and pastoral) on stream habitat, water chemistry and invertebrates, using propensity scores to control for potential confounding factors (e.g. climate, geology). Propensity scoring effectively reduced the collinearity between land cover and potential confounding variables, reducing the potential for covariate bias in estimated treatment–response relationships compared to conventional multiple regression.

Macroinvertebrate richness was significantly greater at sites with a higher proportion of improved pasture in their catchment or riparian zone, with these effects probably mediated by increased algal production from mild nutrient enrichment. In contrast, macroinvertebrate richness did not change with arable land cover, although sensitive species representation was lower under higher proportions of arable land cover, probably due to greatly elevated nutrient concentrations.

Synthesis and applications. Propensity modelling has great potential to address questions about pressures on ecosystems and organisms at the large spatial extents relevant to land‐use policy, where experimental approaches are not feasible and broad environmental changes often covary. Applied to the effects of agricultural land cover on stream systems, this approach identified reduced nutrient loading from arable farms as a priority for land management. On this specific issue, our data and analysis support the use of riparian or catchment‐scale measures to reduce nutrient delivery to sensitive water bodies.

Propensity modelling has great potential to address questions about pressures on ecosystems and organisms at the large spatial extents relevant to land‐use policy, where experimental approaches are not feasible and broad environmental changes often covary. Applied to the effects of agricultural land cover on stream systems, this approach identified reduced nutrient loading from arable farms as a priority for land management. On this specific issue, our data and analysis support the use of riparian or catchment‐scale measures to reduce nutrient delivery to sensitive water bodies.

Habitat loss drives threshold response of benthic invertebrate communities to deposited sediment in agricultural streams

Agricultural land uses can impact stream ecosystems by reducing suitable habitat, altering flows, and increasing inputs of diffuse pollutants including fine inorganic sediment (< 2 mm). These changes have been linked to altered community composition and declines in biodiversity. Determining the mechanisms driving stream biotic responses, particularly threshold impacts, has, however, proved elusive. To investigate a sediment threshold response by benthic invertebrates, an intensive survey of 30 agricultural streams was conducted along gradients of deposited sediment and dissolved nutrients. Partial redundancy analysis showed that invertebrate community composition changed significantly along the gradient of deposited fine sediment, whereas the effect of dissolved nitrate was weak. Pollution-sensitive invertebrates (%EPT, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera) demonstrated a strong nonlinear response to sediment, and change-point analysis indicated marked declines beyond a threshold of -20% fine sediment covering the streambed. Structural equation modeling indicated that decreased habitat availability (i.e., coarse substrate and associated interstices) was the key driver affecting pollution-sensitive invertebrates, with degraded riparian condition controlling resources through direct (e.g., inputs) and indirect (e.g., flow-mediated) effects on deposited sediment. The identification of specific effects thresholds and the underlying mechanisms (e.g., loss of habitat) driving these changes will assist managers in setting sediment criteria and standards to better guide stream monitoring and rehabilitation.

A review of stream nutrient criteria development in the United States

Elevated nutrients and sediments are the main factors contributing to the poor biological condition measured in over 40% of US waters, highlighting the need for criteria that can aid management efforts to protect or restore the quality of US waters. A large amount of literature on nutrient criteria has been generated since the USEPA called for their development in 1998. Our objective was to examine this peer-reviewed literature to evaluate two main approaches for criteria development in lotic ecosystems: percentile rank and bivariate predictive statistical analyses. The 25th percentile approach has been examined broadly across USEPA-aggregate nutrient ecoregions, and we found that USEPA-suggested criteria for these aggregate ecoregions were often more conservative than criteria estimated using more current regionally focused data based on our compiled data set. Furthermore, 25th percentile estimates were often less than 75th percentile estimates based on reference sites, suggesting that 75th percentile estimates were not more conservative than 25th percentile estimates. Predictive approaches have focused on establishing linear and nonlinear relationships between water quality and algae, macroinvertebrate, and fish communities; attributing causation; and determining whether threshold points exist that can aid in nutrient criteria development. Most of the predictive approaches have occurred at the state or watershed level and may not be directly comparable to USEPA aggregate ecoregions. However, percentile method estimates often fell within the confidence interval of biological threshold criteria estimates, suggesting overlap and some consensus between the two main approaches.

Modeling the effects of conservation practices on stream health

Anthropogenic activities such as agricultural practices can have large effects on the ecological components and overall health of stream ecosystems. Therefore, having a better understanding of those effects and relationships allows for better design of mitigating strategies. The objectives of this study were to identify influential stream variables that correlate with macroinvertebrate indices using biophysical and statistical models. The models developed were later used to evaluate the impact of three agricultural management practices on stream integrity. Our study began with the development of a high-resolution watershed model for the Saginaw River watershed in Michigan for generating in-stream water quality and quantity data at stream reaches with biological sampling data. These in-stream data were then used to explain macroinvertebrate measures of stream health including family index of biological integrity (FamilyIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI), and the number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera , and Trichoptera taxa (EPTtaxa). Two methods (stepwise linear regression and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS)) were evaluated for developing predictive models for macroinvertebrate measures. The ANFIS method performed the best on average and the final models displayed the highest R(2) and lowest mean squared error (MSE) for FamilyIBI (R(2)=0.50, MSE=29.80), HBI (R(2)=0.57, MSE=0.20), and EPTtaxa (R(2)=0.54, MSE=6.60). Results suggest that nutrient concentrations have the strongest influence on all three macroinvertebrate measures. Consistently, average annual organic nitrogen showed the most significant association with EPTtaxa and HBI. Meanwhile, the best model for FamilyIBI included average annual ammonium and average seasonal organic phosphorus. The ANFIS models were then used in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to forecast and assess the potential effects of different best management practices (no-till, residual management, and native grass) on stream integrity. Based on the model predictions, native grass resulted in the largest improvement for all macroinvertebrate measures.

Use of fish functional traits to associate in-stream suspended sediment transport metrics with biological impairment

Loss of ecological integrity due to excessive suspended sediment in rivers and streams is a major cause of water quality impairment in the USA. Current assessment protocols for development of sediment total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) lack a means to link temporally variable sediment transport rates with specific losses of ecological functions as loads increase. In order to accomplish this linkage assessment, a functional traits-based approach was used to correlate site occurrences of 17 fish species traits in three main groups (preferred rearing habitat, trophic feeding guild, and spawning behavior) with suspended sediment transport metrics. The sediment transport metrics included concentrations, durations, and dosages for a range of exceedance frequencies; and mean annual suspended sediment yields (SSY). In addition, this study in the Northwestern Great Plains Ecoregion examined trait relationships with three environmental gradients: channel stability, drainage area, and elevation. Potential stressor responses due to elevated suspended sediment concentration (SSC) levels were correlated with occurrences of five traits: preferred pool habitat; feeding generalists, omnivores, piscivores, and nest-building spawners; and development of ecologically based TMDL targets were demonstrated for specific SSC exceedance frequencies. In addition, reduced site occurrences for preferred pool habitat and nest-building spawners traits were associated with unstable channels and higher SSY. At an ecoregion scale, a functional traits assessment approach provided a means to quantify relations between biological impairment and episodically elevated levels of suspended sediment, supporting efforts to develop ecologically based sediment TMDLs.