Potential water quality changes due to corn expansion in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

River ecological status is shaped by agricultural land use intensity across Europe

Agriculture impacts the ecological status of freshwaters through multiple pressures such as diffuse pollution, water abstraction, and hydromorphological alteration, strongly impairing riverine biodiversity. The agricultural effects, however, likely differ between agricultural types and practices. In Europe, agricultural types show distinct spatial patterns related to intensity, biophysical conditions, and socioeconomic history, which have been operationalised by various landscape typologies. Our study aimed at analysing whether incorporating agricultural intensity enhances the correlation between agricultural land use and the ecological status. For this, we aggregated the continent's agricultural activities into 20 Areas of Farming-induced Freshwater Pressures (AFFP), specifying individual pressure profiles regarding nutrient enrichment, pesticides, water abstraction, and agricultural land use in the riparian zone to establish an agricultural intensity index and related this intensity index to the river ecological status. Using the agricultural intensity index, nearly doubled the correlative strength between agriculture and the ecological status of rivers as compared to the share of agriculture in the sub-catchment (based on the analysis of more than 50,000 sub-catchment units). Strongest agricultural pressures were found for high intensity cropland in the Mediterranean and Temperate regions, while extensive grassland, fallow farmland and livestock farming in the Northern and Highland regions, as well as low intensity mosaic farming, featured lowest pressures. The results provide advice for pan-European management of freshwater ecosystems and highlight the urgent need for more sustainable agriculture. Consequently, they can also be used as a basis for European Union-wide and global policies to halt biodiversity decline, such as the post-2027 renewal of the Common Agricultural Policy.

Effects of agriculture on river biota differ between crop types and organism groups

While the general effects of agricultural land use on riverine biota are well documented, the differential effects of specific crop types on different riverine organism groups, remain largely unexplored. Here we used recently published land use data distinguishing between specific crop types and a Germany-wide dataset of 7748 sites on the ecological status of macroinvertebrates, macrophytes and diatoms and applied generalized linear mixed models to unravel the associations between land use types, crop types, and the ecological status. For all organism groups, associations of specific crop types with biota were stronger than those of urban land use. For macroinvertebrates and macrophytes, strong negative associations were found for pesticide intensive permanent crops, while intensively fertilized crops (maize, intensive cereals) affected diatoms most. These differential associations highlight the importance of distinguishing between crop types and organism groups and the urgency to buffer rivers against agricultural stressors at the catchment scales and to expand sustainably managed agriculture.

Wetland Flowpaths Mediate Nitrogen and Phosphorus Concentrations across the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and human health impacts are critical environmental challenges resulting from excess nitrogen and phosphorus in surface waters. Yet we have limited information regarding how wetland characteristics mediate water quality across watershed scales. We developed a large, novel set of spatial variables characterizing hydrological flowpaths from wetlands to streams, that is, "wetland hydrological transport variables," to explore how wetlands statistically explain the variability in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) in the United States. We found that wetland flowpath variables improved landscape-to-aquatic nutrient multilinear regression models (from R2 = 0.89 to 0.91 for TN; R2 = 0.53 to 0.84 for TP) and provided insights into potential processes governing how wetlands influence watershed-scale TN and TP concentrations. Specifically, flowpath variables describing flow-attenuating environments, for example, subsurface transport compared to overland flowpaths, were related to lower TN and TP concentrations. Frequent hydrological connections from wetlands to streams were also linked to low TP concentrations, which likely suggests a nutrient source limitation in some areas of the UMRB. Consideration of wetland flowpaths could inform management and conservation activities designed to reduce nutrient export to downstream waters.

Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) specifies the use of biofuels in the United States and thereby guides nearly half of all global biofuel production, yet outcomes of this keystone climate and environmental regulation remain unclear. Here we combine econometric analyses, land use observations, and biophysical models to estimate the realized effects of the RFS in aggregate and down to the scale of individual agricultural fields across the United States. We find that the RFS increased corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%, which, in turn, expanded US corn cultivation by 2.8 Mha (8.7%) and total cropland by 2.1 Mha (2.4%) in the years following policy enactment (2008 to 2016). These changes increased annual nationwide fertilizer use by 3 to 8%, increased water quality degradants by 3 to 5%, and caused enough domestic land use change emissions such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher. These tradeoffs must be weighed alongside the benefits of biofuels as decision-makers consider the future of renewable energy policies and the potential for fuels like corn ethanol to meet climate mitigation goals.

Changing Land Use and Population Density Are Degrading Water Quality in the Lower Mekong Basin

Establishing reference conditions in rivers is important to understand environmental change and protect ecosystem integrity. Ranked third globally for fish biodiversity, the Mekong River has the world’s largest inland fishery providing livelihoods, food security, and protein to the local population. It is therefore of paramount importance to maintain the water quality and biotic integrity of this ecosystem. We analyzed land use impacts on water quality constituents (TSS, TN, TP, DO, NO3−, NH4+, PO43−) in the Lower Mekong Basin. We then used a best-model regression approach with anthropogenic land-use as independent variables and water quality parameters as the dependent variables, to define reference conditions in the absence of human activities (corresponding to the intercept value). From 2000–2017, the population and the percentage of crop, rice, and plantation land cover increased, while there was a decrease in upland forest and flooded forest. Agriculture, urbanization, and population density were associated with decreasing water quality health in the Lower Mekong Basin. In several sites, Thailand and Laos had higher TN, NO3−, and NH4+ concentrations compared to reference conditions, while Cambodia had higher TP values than reference conditions, showing water quality degradation. TSS was higher than reference conditions in the dry season in Cambodia, but was lower than reference values in the wet season in Thailand and Laos. This study shows how deforestation from agriculture conversion and increasing urbanization pressure causes water quality decline in the Lower Mekong Basin, and provides a first characterization of reference water quality conditions for the Lower Mekong River and its tributaries.

Surface Depression and Wetland Water Storage Improves Major River Basin Hydrologic Predictions

Surface water storage in small yet abundant landscape depressions-including wetlands and other small waterbodies-is largely disregarded in conventional hydrologic modeling practices. No quantitative evidence exists of how their exclusion may lead to potentially inaccurate model projections and understanding of hydrologic dynamics across the world's major river basins. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed the first-ever major river basin-scale modeling approach integrating surface depressions and focusing on the 450,000-km2 Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) in the United States. We applied a novel topography-based algorithm to estimate areas and volumes of ~455,000 surface depressions (>1 ha) across the UMRB (in addition to lakes and reservoirs) and subsequently aggregated their effects per subbasin. Compared to a "no depression" conventional model, our depression-integrated model (a) improved streamflow simulation accuracy with increasing upstream abundance of depression storage, (b) significantly altered the spatial patterns and magnitudes of water yields across 315,000 km2 (70%) of the basin area, and (c) provided realistic spatial distributions of rootzone wetness conditions corresponding to satellite-based data. Results further suggest that storage capacity (i.e., volume) alone does not fully explain depressions' cumulative effects on landscape hydrologic responses. Local (i.e., subbasin level) climatic and geophysical drivers and downstream flowpath-regulating structures (e.g., reservoirs and dams) influence the extent to which depression storage volume in a subbasin causes hydrologic effects. With these new insights, our study supports the integration of surface depression storage and thereby catalyzes a reassessment of current hydrological modeling and management practices for basin-scale studies.

Analysis of alternative climate datasets and evapotranspiration methods for the Upper Mississippi River Basin using SWAT within HAWQS

This study reports the application of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS) on-line platform, for the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The UMRB is an important ecosystem located in the north central U.S. that is experiencing a range of ecological stresses. Specifically, testing of SWAT was performed for: (1) Hargreaves (HG) and Penman-Monteith (PM) PET methods, and (2) Livneh, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climate datasets. The Livneh-PM combination resulted in the highest average annual water yield of 380.6 mm versus the lowest estimated water yield of 193.9 mm for the Livneh-HG combination, in response to 23-year uncalibrated simulations. Higher annual ET and PET values were predicted with HG method versus the PM method for all three weather datasets in response to the uncalibrated simulations, due primarily to higher HG-based estimates during the growing season. Based on these results, it was found that the HG method is the preferred PET option for the UMRB. Initial calibration of SWAT was performed using the Livneh data and HG method for three Mississippi River main stem gauge sites, which was followed by spatial validation at 10 other gauge sites located within the UMRB stream network. Overall satisfactory results were found for the calibration and validation gauge sites, with the majority of R2 values ranging between 0.61 and 0.82, Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (NSE) values ranging between 0.50 and 0.79, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) values ranging between 0.61 and 0.84. The results of an additional experimental suite of six scenarios, which represented different combinations of climate data sets and calibrated parameters, revealed that suggested statistical criteria were again satisfied by the different scenario combinations. Overall, the PRISM data exhibited the strongest reliability for the UMRB.

Land-use controls on nutrient loads in aquifers draining agricultural and mixed-use karstic watersheds

Agricultural nonpoint source pollution from the upper areas of the Upper Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio River basins accounts for the majority of the excess nitrogen that leads to the Gulf of Mexico's hypoxic zone. However, agriculture landscapes across the USA, Europe, and China are undergoing major changes related to the proliferation of confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) that account for a greater proportion of point source contamination. Mitigating long-term nutrient inputs at a large scale (Mississippi River Basin) requires understanding these microscale changes at the small watershed level (less than 100 km²). To assess the control of land-use and subsurface hydrological processes on nutrient fate and transport, temporal patterns in nutrient concentrations in a mixed land-use karstic watershed were analyzed. To assess the control of differential land-use sources on total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) loads within the watershed, 4 months of weekly water sampling was performed at a spring location and at two underground conduit locations. The observed temporal variations in nutrient concentrations are primarily associated with seasonal changes in land-use associated with corn growth. Data show that land-use sources explain much of the temporal variability of TIN at the spring when weighted against the hydrological factor. End-member-mixing analysis of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) shows a progressive increase in the contribution of DOC-enriched sources and a more labile form of carbon toward the harvest time. Overall, during high flow, nonpoint source infiltration from manure-fertilized croplands in the northern branch (NB) dominate DOC loads. Because conduit-dominated karstic aquifers are more susceptible to contamination from direct and fast (< 7 h) subsurface infiltration during late summer rainfall period (July to August), a slight advance in the timing of manure application could substantially reduce nutrient loads to local groundwater. A combined evaluation of subsurface hydrological processes and land-use factors controlling nutrients at the scale of small watersheds is crucial to developing site-specific nutrient management plans and managing the Gulf of Mexico's hypoxic zone.

Societal decisions about climate mitigation will have dramatic impacts on eutrophication in the 21st century

Excessive nitrogen runoff leads to degraded water quality, harming human and ecosystem health. We examine the impact of changes in land use and land management for six combinations of socioeconomic pathways and climate outcomes, and find that societal choices will substantially impact riverine total nitrogen loading (+54% to -7%) for the continental United States by the end of the century. Regional impacts will be even larger. Increased loading is possible for both high emission and low emission pathways, due to increased food and biofuel demand, respectively. Some pathways, however, suggest that limiting climate change and eutrophication can be achieved concurrently. Precipitation changes will further exacerbate loading, resulting in a net increase of 1 to 68%. Globally, increases in cropland area and agricultural intensification will likely impact vast portions of Asia. Societal and climate trends must therefore both be considered in designing strategies for managing inland and coastal water quality.

Land conservation can mitigate freshwater ecosystem services degradation due to climate change in a semiarid catchment: The case of the Portneuf River catchment, Idaho, USA

There is increasing evidence of environmental change impacts on freshwater ecosystem services especially through land use and climate change. However, little is known about how land conservation could help mitigate adverse water-sustainability impacts. In this paper, we utilized the InVEST tool and the Residual Trends method to assess the joint effects and relative contributions of climate change and land conservation on freshwater ecosystem services in the Portneuf River catchment in Idaho, USA. We developed five hypothesized scenarios regarding gain and loss in the enrollment of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest agricultural land-retirement program in the U.S., plus riparian buffer and assessed their interactions with climate change. Results suggest that the realized water yield in the Portneuf River catchment would possibly be 56% less due to climate change and 24% less due to the decline of CRP enrollment. On the contrary, if CRP enrollment is promoted by ~30% and riparian buffer protection is implemented, the water supply reduction in the year 2050 could be changed from 56% to 26%, the total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) export would be reduced by 10% and 11%, and the total suspended sediment (TSS) reduced by 17%. This study suggests that increasing implementation of the CRP would likely preserve key freshwater ecosystem services and assist proactive mitigation, especially for semiarid regions vulnerable to changing climate conditions.

Depressional wetlands affect watershed hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological functions

Depressional wetlands of the extensive U.S. and Canadian Prairie Pothole Region afford numerous ecosystem processes that maintain healthy watershed functioning. However, these wetlands have been lost at a prodigious rate over past decades due to drainage for development, climate effects, and other causes. Options for management entities to protect the existing wetlands, and their functions, may focus on conserving wetlands based on spatial location vis-à-vis a floodplain or on size limitations (e.g., permitting smaller wetlands to be destroyed but not larger wetlands). Yet the effects of such management practices and the concomitant loss of depressional wetlands on watershed-scale hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological functions are largely unknown. Using a hydrological model, we analyzed how different loss scenarios by wetland size and proximal location to the stream network affected watershed storage (i.e., inundation patterns and residence times), connectivity (i.e., streamflow contributing areas), and export (i.e., streamflow) in a large watershed in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. Depressional wetlands store consequential amounts of precipitation and snowmelt. The loss of smaller depressional wetlands (<3.0 ha) substantially decreased landscape-scale inundation heterogeneity, total inundated area, and hydrological residence times. Larger wetlands act as hydrologic "gatekeepers," preventing surface runoff from reaching the stream network, and their modeled loss had a greater effect on streamflow due to changes in watershed connectivity and storage characteristics of larger wetlands. The wetland management scenario based on stream proximity (i.e., protecting wetlands 30 m and ~450 m from the stream) alone resulted in considerable landscape heterogeneity loss and decreased inundated area and residence times. With more snowmelt and precipitation available for runoff with wetland losses, contributing area increased across all loss scenarios. We additionally found that depressional wetlands attenuated peak flows; the probability of increased downstream flooding from wetland loss was also consistent across all loss scenarios. It is evident from this study that optimizing wetland management for one end goal (e.g., protection of large depressional wetlands for flood attenuation) over another (e.g., protecting of small depressional wetlands for biodiversity) may come at a cost for overall watershed hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological resilience, functioning, and integrity.

Relationships Between Land Use and Stream Nutrient Concentrations in a Highly Urbanized Tropical Region of Brazil: Thresholds and Riparian Zones

Nutrient enrichment in streams due to land use is increasing globally, reducing water quality and causing eutrophication of downstream fresh and coastal waters. In temperate developed countries, the intensive use of fertilizers in agriculture is a main driver of increasing nutrient concentrations, but high levels and fast rates of urbanization can be a predominant issue in some areas of the developing world. We investigated land use in the highly urbanized tropical State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We collected total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and inorganic nutrient data from 35 independent watersheds distributed across the State and characterized land use at a riparian and entire watershed scales upstream from each sample station, using ArcGIS. We used regression models to explain land use influences on nutrient concentrations and to assess riparian protection relationships to water quality. We found that urban land use was the primary driver of nutrient concentration increases, independent of the scale of analyses and that urban land use was more concentrated in the riparian buffer of streams than in the entire watersheds. We also found significant thresholds that indicated strong increases in nutrient concentrations with modest increases in urbanization reaching maximum nutrient concentrations between 10 and 46% urban cover. These thresholds influenced calculation of reference nutrient concentrations, and ignoring them led to higher estimates of these concentrations. Lack of sewage treatment in concert with urban development in riparian zones apparently leads to the observation that modest increases in urban land use can cause large increases in nutrient concentrations.

Alternative futures of dissolved inorganic nitrogen export from the Mississippi River Basin: influence of crop management, atmospheric deposition, and population growth

Nitrogen (N) export from the Mississippi River Basin contributes to seasonal hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We explored monthly dissolved inorganic N (DIN) export to the GOM for a historical year (2002) and two future scenarios (year 2022) by linking macroeonomic energy, agriculture market, air quality, and agriculture land management models to a DIN export model. Future scenarios considered policies aimed at encouraging bioenergy crop production and reducing atmospheric N-emissions, as well as the effect of population growth and the states' infrastructure plans on sewage fluxes. Model-derived DIN export decreased by about 9% (from 279 to 254 kg N km-2 year-1) between 2002 and 2022 due to a 28% increase in area planted with corn, 24% improvement in crop N-recovery efficiency (NRE, to 0.52), 22% reduction in atmospheric N deposition, and 23% increase in sewage inputs. Changes in atmospheric and sewage inputs had a relatively small effect on DIN export and the effect of bioenergy crop production depended on nutrient management practices. Without improved NRE, increased production of corn would have increased DIN export by about 14% (to 289 kg N km-2 year-1) between 2002 and 2022. Model results suggest that meeting future crop demand while reducing the areal extent of hypoxia could require aggressive actions, such improving basin-level crop NRE to 0.62 or upgrading N-removal capabilities in waste water treatment plants beyond current plans. Tile-drained cropland could contribute up to half of DIN export; thus, practices that reduce N losses from tile drains could also have substantial benefit.

Estimating Nitrogen Load Resulting from Biofuel Mandates

The Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 were enacted to reduce the U.S. dependency on foreign oil by increasing the use of biofuels. The increased demand for biofuels from corn and soybeans could result in an increase of nitrogen flux if not managed properly. The objectives of this study are to estimate nitrogen flux from energy crop production and to identify the catchment areas with high nitrogen flux. The results show that biofuel production can result in an increase of nitrogen flux to the northern Gulf of Mexico from 270 to 1742 thousand metric tons. Using all cellulosic (hay) ethanol or biodiesel to meet the 2022 mandate is expected to reduce nitrogen flux; however, it requires approximately 25% more land when compared to other scenarios. Producing ethanol from switchgrass rather than hay results in three-times more nitrogen flux, but requires 43% less land. Using corn ethanol for 2022 mandates is expected to have double the nitrogen flux when compared to the EISA-specified 2022 scenario; however, it will require less land area. Shifting the U.S. energy supply from foreign oil to the Midwest cannot occur without economic and environmental impacts, which could potentially lead to more eutrophication and hypoxia.

An Examination of Growing Trends in Land Tenure and Conservation Practice Adoption: Results from a Farmer Survey in Iowa

Tenants and part-owners are farming an increasing number of acres in the United States, while full-owners are farming fewer acres. This shift in ownership is a potential cause for concern because some previous research indicated that tenant and part-owner farmers were less likely to adopt conservation practices than farmers who owned the land they farmed. If that trend persists, ownership changes would signal a national drop in conservation adoption. Here we examine this issue using a survey of agricultural operators in the Clear Creek watershed in Iowa, a state with intensive agricultural production. We compare adoption of conservation practices, and preferences for conservation information sources and communication channels, between farmers who rent some portion of the land they farm (tenants and part-owners) and farmers who own all of the land they farm (full-owners). We find that renters are more likely to practice conservation tillage than full-owners, though they are less likely to rotate crops. In addition, renters report using federal government employees (specifically, Natural Resource Conservation Service and Farm Service Agency) as their primary sources of conservation information, while full-owners most frequently rely on neighbors, friends, and County Extension. These findings are significant for conservation policy because, unlike some past research, they indicate that renters are not resistant to all types of conservation practices, echoing recent studies finding an increase in conservation adoption among non-full-owners. Our results emphasize the importance of government conservation communication and can inform outreach efforts by helping tailor effective, targeted conservation strategies for owners and renters.

Cost of areal reduction of gulf hypoxia through agricultural practice

A major share of the area of hypoxic growth in the Northern Gulf of Mexico has been attributed to nutrient run-off from agricultural fields, but no estimate is available for the cost of reducing Gulf hypoxic area using agricultural conservation practices. We apply the Soil and Water Assessment Tool using observed daily weather to simulate the reduction in nitrogen loading in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) that would result from enrolling all row crop acreage in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Nitrogen loadings at the outlet of the UMRB are used to predict Gulf hypoxic area, and net cash farm rent is used as the price for participation in the CRP. Over the course of the 42 year simulation, direct CRP costs total more than $388 billion, and the Inter-Governmental Task Force goal of hypoxic area less than 5000 square kilometers is met in only two years.

Processing maize flour and corn meal food products

Corn is the cereal with the highest production worldwide and is used for human consumption, livestock feed, and fuel. Various food technologies are currently used for processing industrially produced maize flours and corn meals in different parts of the world to obtain precooked refined maize flour, dehydrated nixtamalized flour, fermented maize flours, and other maize products. These products have different intrinsic vitamin and mineral contents, and their processing follows different pathways from raw grain to the consumer final product, which entail changes in nutrient composition. Dry maize mechanical processing creates whole or fractionated products, separated by anatomical features such as bran, germ, and endosperm. Wet maize processing separates by chemical compound classification such as starch and protein. Various industrial processes, including whole grain, dry milling fractionation, and nixtamalization, are described. Vitamin and mineral losses during processing are identified and the nutritional impacts outlined. Also discussed are the vitamin and mineral contents of corn.

Environmental and economic trade-offs in a watershed when using corn stover for bioenergy

There is an abundant supply of corn stover in the United States that remains after grain is harvested which could be used to produce cellulosic biofuels mandated by the current Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). This research integrates the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model and the DayCent biogeochemical model to investigate water quality and soil greenhouse gas flux that results when corn stover is collected at two different rates from corn-soybean and continuous corn crop rotations with and without tillage. Multiobjective watershed-scale optimizations are performed for individual pollutant-cost minimization criteria based on the economic cost of each cropping practice and (individually) the effect on nitrate, total phosphorus, sediment, or global warming potential. We compare these results with a purely economic optimization that maximizes stover production at the lowest cost without taking environmental impacts into account. We illustrate trade-offs between cost and different environmental performance criteria, assuming that nutrients contained in any stover collected must be replaced. The key finding is that stover collection using the practices modeled results in increased contributions to atmospheric greenhouse gases while reducing nitrate and total phosphorus loading to the watershed relative to the status quo without stover collection. Stover collection increases sediment loading to waterways relative to when no stover is removed for each crop rotation-tillage practice combination considered; no-till in combination with stover collection reduced sediment loading below baseline conditions without stover collection. Our results suggest that additional information is needed about (i) the level of nutrient replacement required to maintain grain yields and (ii) cost-effective management practices capable of reducing soil erosion when crop residues are removed in order to avoid contributions to climate change and water quality impairments as a result of using corn stover to satisfy the RFS.

Spatial forecasting of switchgrass productivity under current and future climate change scenarios

Evaluating the potential of alternative energy crops across large geographic regions, as well as over time, is a necessary component to determining if biofuel production is feasible and sustainable in the face of growing production demands and climatic change. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a native perennial herbaceous grass, is a promising candidate for cellulosic feedstock production. In this study, current and future (from 2080 to 2090) productivity is estimated across the central and eastern United States using ALMANAC, a mechanistic model that simulates plant growth over time. The ALMANAC model was parameterized for representative ecotypes of switchgrass. Our results indicate substantial variation in switchgrass productivity both within regions and over time. States along the Gulf Coast, southern Atlantic Coast, and in the East North Central Midwest have the highest current biomass potential. However, these areas also contain critical wetland habitat necessary for the maintenance of biodiversity and agricultural lands necessary for food production. The southern United States is predicted to have the largest decrease in future biomass production. The Great Plains are expected to experience large increases in productivity by 2080-2090 due to climate change. In general, regions where future temperature and precipitation are predicted to increase are also where larger future biomass production is expected. In contrast, regions that show a future decrease in precipitation are associated with smaller future biomass production. Switchgrass appears to be a promising biofuel crop for the central and eastern United States, with local biomass predicted to be high (>10 Mg/ha) for approximately 50% of the area studied for each climate scenario. In order to minimize land conversion and loss of biodiversity, areas that currently have and maintain high productivity under climate change should be targeted for their long-term growth potential.

Assessing regional hydrology and water quality implications of large-scale biofuel feedstock production in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

A recent U.S. Department of Energy study estimated that more than one billion tons of biofuel feedstock could be produced by 2030 in the United States from increased corn yield, and changes in agricultural and forest residue management and land uses. To understand the implications of such increased production on water resources and stream quality at regional and local scales, we have applied a watershed model for the Upper Mississippi River Basin, where most of the current and future crop/residue-based biofuel production is expected. The model simulates changes in water quality (soil erosion, nitrogen and phosphorus loadings in streams) and resources (soil-water content, evapotranspiration, and runoff) under projected biofuel production versus the 2006 baseline year and a business-as-usual scenario. The basin average results suggest that the projected feedstock production could change the rate of evapotranspiration in the UMRB by approximately +2%, soil-water content by about -2%, and discharge to streams by -5% from the baseline scenario. However, unlike the impacts on regional water availability, the projected feedstock production has a mixed effect on water quality, resulting in 12% and 45% increases in annual suspended sediment and total phosphorus loadings, respectively, but a 3% decrease in total nitrogen loading. These differences in water quantity and quality are statistically significant (p < 0.05). The basin responses are further analyzed at monthly time steps and finer spatial scales to evaluate underlying physical processes, which would be essential for future optimization of environmentally sustainable biofuel productions.

Reforming agricultural nonpoint pollution policy in an increasingly budget-constrained environment

Agricultural nonpoint source water pollution has long been recognized as an important contributor to U.S. water quality problems and the subject of an array of local, state, and federal initiatives to reduce the problem. A "pay-the-polluter" approach to getting farmers to adopt best management practices has not succeeded in improving water quality in many impaired watersheds. With the prospects of reduced funding for the types of financial and technical assistance programs that have been the mainstay of agricultural water quality policy, alternative approaches need to be considered. Some changes to the way current conservation programs are implemented could increase their efficiency, but there are limits to how effective a purely voluntary approach can be. An alternative paradigm is the "polluter pays" approach, which has been successfully employed to reduce point source pollution. A wholesale implementation of the polluter-pays approach to agriculture is likely infeasible, but elements of the polluter-pays approach could be incorporated into agricultural water quality policy.