Modeling wood product carbon flows in southern us pine plantations: implications for carbon storage

BACKGROUND

Wood products continue to store carbon sequestered in forests after harvest and therefore play an important role in the total carbon storage associated with the forest sector. Trade-offs between carbon sequestration/storage in wood product pools and managed forest systems exist, and in order for forest sector carbon modeling to be meaningful, it must link wood product carbon with the specific forest system from which the products originate and have the ability to incorporate in situ and ex situ carbon synchronously over time.

RESULTS

This study uses elements of a life cycle assessment approach, tracing carbon from US southern pine timber harvests to emission, to create a decision support tool that practitioners can use to inform policy design around land- and bioproduct-based mitigation strategies. We estimate that wood products from annual loblolly and shortleaf pine timber harvests across the southern US store 29.7 MtC in the year they enter the market, and 11.4 MtC remain stored after 120 years. We estimate fossil fuel emissions from the procurement, transportation, and manufacturing of these wood products to be 43.3 MtCO2e year-1. We found that composite logs, used to manufacture oriented strand board (OSB), were the most efficient log type for storing carbon, storing around 1.8 times as much carbon as saw logs per tonne of log over 120 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from our analysis suggest that adjusting rotation length based on individual site productivity, reducing methane emissions from landfills, and extending the storage of carbon in key products, such as corrugated boxes, through longer lifespans, higher recycling rates, and less landfill decomposition could result in significant carbon gains. Our results also highlight the benefits of high site productivity to store more carbon in both in situ and ex situ pools and suggest that shorter rotations could be used to optimize carbon storage on sites when productivity is high.

Trade-offs Between the Value of Ecosystem Services and Connectivity Among Protected Areas in the Upper Chattahoochee Watershed

The Upper Chattahoochee Watershed supplies most of the drinking water to the Atlanta Metropolitan Area, a region with one of the fastest urban growth rates in the United States. Smart conservation planning is necessary to conciliate urban development and the provision of critical ecosystem services (ESs) such as water quality, carbon storage, and wildlife habitat. We employed optimization models to compare the value of the ESs provided by alternative allocations of land parcels for conservation. We adopted boundary penalties to determine the trade-offs of choosing higher connectivity among parcels regarding economic values provided by carbon storage, wildlife habitat, and water quality. We used InVEST models to quantify and map ESs and value transfer to assign economic values to them. We set low and high ESs economic value bounds and discounted their values to perpetuity using 3% and 7% discount rates. Our results indicate that incorporating boundary penalties results in solutions with larger, fewer, and more connected parcels but yields lower economic benefits than unconstrained models. However, these differences are relatively small (between 2.6% and 7.3% loss in economic value). Additional transaction costs of purchasing more parcels and improving ecological networks provided by larger forest patches might justify the selection of solutions with higher connectivity. Decision-makers can use the developed models for estimating the economic cost of selecting connected parcels for conservation purposes at the landscape level.

Current aboveground live tree carbon stocks and annual net change in forests of conterminous United States

BACKGROUND

With the introduction of the Trillion Trees Initiative and similar programs, forests' ability to absorb carbon dioxide is increasingly in the spotlight. Many states have mandates to develop climate action plans, of which forest carbon is an important component, and planners need current information on forest carbon stocks and rates of change at relevant spatial scales. To this end, we examine rates of average annual change in live aboveground tree carbon in different forest type groups and provide state-wide and regional summaries of current live tree carbon stock and rates of change for the forests of the conterminous United States. Forest carbon summaries are presented in a format designed to meet the needs of managers, policymakers, and others requiring current estimates of aboveground live tree carbon at state and regional scales.

RESULTS

Regional average aboveground live tree carbon stocks (represented on a per area basis) are generally between 40 and 75 tC/ha but range from 12.8 tC/ha in the Great Plains to 130 tC/ha in the Pacific Northwest West (west-side of Cascades). Regional average annual change in live aboveground tree carbon varies from a low of - 0.18 mtC/ha/y in the Rocky Mountain South to a high value of 1.74 mtC/ha/y in Pacific Northwest West. For individual states, carbon per unit area varies widely, from a low of 11.9 tC/ha in Nevada to a high of 96.4 tC/ha in Washington, with half the states falling between 50 and 75 tC/ha. Rates of average annual change in live aboveground tree carbon vary from a high of 1.82 tC/ha/y in Mississippi to a low of - 0.47 tC/ha/y in Colorado.

CONCLUSIONS

Aboveground live tree carbon stocks and rates of average annual change vary by forest type within regions. While softwood forest types currently exhibit a higher rate of increase in the amount of carbon in aboveground live tree biomass, the current standing stock of carbon per unit area does not consistently follow this pattern. For this reason, we recommend computing and considering both measures -standing stock and average annual change-of carbon storage. The relative importance of each component will depend on management and policy objectives and the time frame related to those objectives. Harvesting and natural disturbance also affect forest carbon stock and change and may need to be considered if developing projections of potential carbon storage.

Analyzing the provision of ecosystem services by conservation easements and other protected and non-protected areas in the Upper Chattahoochee Watershed

A conservation easement (CE) legally places a permanent restriction on the development of a private land parcel, and in turn, can provide tax benefits to the landowner. We used the modular toolset InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) to quantify provision of five ecosystem services (ESs) (carbon storage, wildlife habitat quality, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment exports) provided by CEs and other land typologies (Simulated Parcels, 1 km Buffer area, Watershed Average, Federal, State and Local Protected Areas) within the Upper Chattahoochee Watershed (UCW), which provides 72% of drinking water to about six million residents of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area and is experiencing one of fastest urban growth of the United States. Simulated Parcels would represent the land cover of CEs if the development restrictions were not in place. We conducted the analysis for 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. We aggregated all ESs into one index. Overall, CEs provided higher levels of ESs relative to the Simulated Parcels, 1 km Buffer, Watershed Average, and Local Protected Areas. However, the ESs from CEs were lower relative to Federal and State Protected Areas. Our results suggest that CEs are effective in ensuring the continuance of ESs within the UCW.

Integrating TimeSync Disturbance Detection and Repeat Forest Inventory to Predict Carbon Flux

Understanding change in forest carbon (C) is important for devising strategies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. National forest inventories (NFIs) are important to meet international accounting goals, but data are often incomplete going back in time, and the amount of time between remeasurements can make attribution of C flux to specific events difficult. The long time series of Landsat imagery provides spatially comprehensive, consistent information that can be used to fill the gaps in ground measurements with predictive models. To evaluate such models, we relate Landsat spectral changes and disturbance interpretations directly to C flux measured on NFI plots and compare the performance of models with and without ground-measured predictor variables. The study was conducted in the forests of southwest Oregon State, USA, a region of diverse forest types, disturbances, and landowner management objectives. Plot data consisted of 676 NFI plots with remeasured individual tree data over a mean interval (time 1 to time 2) of 10.0 years. We calculated change in live aboveground woody carbon (AWC), including separate components of growth, mortality, and harvest. We interpreted radiometrically corrected annual Landsat images with the TimeSync (TS) tool for a 90 m × 90 m area over each plot. Spectral time series were divided into segments of similar trajectories and classified as disturbance, recovery, or stability segments, with type of disturbance identified. We calculated a variety of values and segment changes from tasseled cap angle and distance (TCA and TCD) as potential predictor variables of C flux. Multiple linear regression was used to model AWC and net change in AWC from the TS change metrics. The TS attribution of disturbance matched the plot measurements 89% of the time regarding whether fire or harvest had occurred or not. The primary disagreement was due to plots that had been partially cut, mostly in vigorous stands where the net change in AWC over the measurement was positive in spite of cutting. The plot-measured AWC at time 2 was 86.0 ± 78.7 Mg C ha−1 (mean and standard deviation), and the change in AWC across all plots was 3.5 ± 33 Mg C ha−1 year−1. The best model for AWC based solely on TS and other mapped variables had an R2 = 0.52 (RMSE = 54.6 Mg C ha−1); applying this model at two time periods to estimate net change in AWC resulted in an R2 = 0.25 (RMSE = 28.3 Mg ha−1) and a mean error of −5.4 Mg ha−1. The best model for AWC at time 2 using plot measurements at time 1 and TS variables had an R2 = 0.95 (RSME = 17.0 Mg ha−1). The model for net change in AWC using the same data was identical except that, because the variable being estimated was smaller in magnitude, the R2 = 0.73. All models performed better at estimating net change in AWC on TS-disturbed plots than on TS-undisturbed plots. The TS discrimination of disturbance between fire and harvest was an important variable in the models because the magnitude of spectral change from fire was greater for a given change in AWC. Regional models without plot-level predictors produced erroneous predictions of net change in AWC for some of the forest types. Our study suggests that, in spite of the simplicity of applying a single carbon model to multiple image dates, the approach can produce inaccurate estimates of C flux. Although models built with plot-level predictors are necessarily constrained to making predictions at plot locations, they show promise for providing accurate updates or back-calculations of C flux assessments.

From Farms to Forests: Landscape Carbon Balance after 50 Years of Afforestation, Harvesting, and Prescribed Fire

Establishing reliable carbon baselines for landowners desiring to sustain carbon sequestration and identify opportunities to mitigate land management impacts on carbon balance is important; however, national and regional assessments are not designed to support individual landowners. Such baselines become increasingly valuable when landowners convert land use, change management, or when disturbance occurs. We used forest inventories to quantify carbon stocks, estimate annual carbon fluxes, and determine net biome production (NBP) over a 50-year period coinciding with a massive afforestation effort across ~80,000 ha of land in the South Carolina Coastal Plain. Forested land increased from 48,714 ha to 73,824 ha between 1951 and 2001. Total forest biomass increased from 1.73–3.03 Gg to 17.8–18.3 Gg, corresponding to biomass density increases from 35.6–62.2 Mg ha−1 to 231.4–240.0 Mg ha−1. Harvesting removed 1340.3 Gg C between 1955 and 2001, but annual removals were variable. Fire consumed 527.1 Gg C between 1952 and 2001. Carbon exported by streams was <0.5% of total export. Carbon from roots and other harvested material that remained in-use or in landfills comprised 49.3% of total harvested carbon. Mineral soil carbon accounted for 41.6 to 50% of 2001 carbon stocks when considering depths of 1.0 or 1.5 m, respectively, and was disproportionately concentrated in wetlands. Moreover, we identified a soil carbon deficit of 19–20 Mg C ha−1, suggesting opportunities for future soil carbon sequestration in post-agricultural soils. Our results provide a robust baseline for this site that can be used to understand how land conversion, forest management, and disturbance impacts carbon balance of this landscape and highlight the value of these baseline data for other sites. Our work also identifies the need to manage forests for multiple purposes, especially promotion of soil carbon accumulation in low-density pine savannas that are managed for red-cockaded woodpeckers and therefore demand low aboveground carbon stocks.

Managing Moist Forests of the Pacific Northwest United States for Climate Positive Outcomes

The moist forests of the Pacific Northwest United States (PNW) are among the most naturally carbon rich ecoregions in the world. However, regional in-forest carbon storage levels are currently well below ecological potential. Recent climate policy proposals have renewed and deepened debates over forest sector climate strategies. This paper begins with a review of regionally applicable forest carbon life cycle assessments (LCAs) in an effort to provide some clarity around how these studies are conducted, and why their results may vary. The review highlights the importance of assumptions made during carbon accounting across the wood product lifespan and how the inclusion or exclusions of variables, such as product substitution and leakage, influence study results and subsequent management recommendations. Next we discuss the influence of climate change on forest management and planning. We conclude with a review of regional-specific factors to consider when developing optimal forest climate strategies in the moist forests of the PNW. These strategies include, but are not limited to; extending harvest rotations, shelterwood and select tree harvests (in lieu of full harvest), and managing forests for increased structural, age, and species complexity.

A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem

BACKGROUND

Carbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed for local-scale land management at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance by considering past ecosystem disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, and land management actions including hydrologic inundation, vegetation clearing, and replanting.

RESULTS

We modeled the annual ecosystem carbon stock and flow rates for the 30-year historic time period of 1985-2015, using age-structured forest growth curves and known data for disturbance events and management activities. The 30-year total net ecosystem production was estimated to be a net sink of 0.97 Tg C. When a hurricane and six historic fire events were considered in the simulation, the Great Dismal Swamp became a net source of 0.89 Tg C. The cumulative above and below-ground carbon loss estimated from the South One and Lateral West fire events totaled 1.70 Tg C, while management activities removed an additional 0.01 Tg C. The carbon loss in below-ground biomass alone totaled 1.38 Tg C, with the balance (0.31 Tg C) coming from above-ground biomass and detritus.

CONCLUSIONS

Natural disturbances substantially impact net ecosystem carbon balance in the Great Dismal Swamp. Through alternative management actions such as re-wetting, below-ground biomass loss may have been avoided, resulting in the added carbon storage capacity of 1.38 Tg. Based on two model assumptions used to simulate the peat system, (a burn scar totaling 70 cm in depth, and the soil carbon accumulation rate of 0.36 t C/ha-1/year-1 for Atlantic white cedar), the total soil carbon loss from the South One and Lateral West fires would take approximately 1740 years to re-amass. Due to the impractical time horizon this presents for land managers, this particular loss is considered permanent. Going forward, the baseline carbon stock and flow parameters presented here will be used as reference conditions to model future scenarios of land management and disturbance.

Managing Carbon on Federal Public Lands: Opportunities and Challenges in Southwestern Colorado

Federal lands in the United States have been identified as important areas where forests could be managed to enhance carbon storage and help mitigate climate change. However, there has been little work examining the context for decision making for carbon in a multiple-use public land environment, and how science can support decision making. This case study of the San Juan National Forest and the Bureau of Land Management Tres Rios Field Office in southwestern Colorado examines whether land managers in these offices have adequate tools, information, and management flexibility to practice effective carbon stewardship. To understand how carbon was distributed on the management landscape we added a newly developed carbon map for the SJNF-TRFO area based on Landsat TM texture information (Kelsey and Neff in Remote Sens 6:6407-6422. doi: 10.3390/rs6076407 , 2014). We estimate that only about 22 % of the aboveground carbon in the SJNF-TRFO is in areas designated for active management, whereas about 38 % is in areas with limited management opportunities, and 29 % is in areas where natural processes should dominate. To project the effects of forest management actions on carbon storage, staff of the SJNF are expected to use the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) and extensions. While identifying FVS as the best tool generally available for this purpose, the users and developers we interviewed highlighted the limitations of applying an empirically based model over long time horizons. Future research to improve information on carbon storage should focus on locations and types of vegetation where carbon management is feasible and aligns with other management priorities.

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands' contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency's land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.

High-biomass forests of the Pacific Northwest: who manages them and how much is protected?

To examine ownership and protection status of forests with high-biomass stores (>200 Mg/ha) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the United States, we used the latest versions of publicly available datasets. Overlay, aggregation, and GIS-based computation of forest area in broad biomass classes in the PNW showed that the National Forests contained the largest area of high-biomass forests (48.4 % of regional total), but the area of high-biomass forest on private lands was important as well (22.8 %). Between 2000 and 2008, the loss of high-biomass forests to fire on the National Forests was 7.6 % (236,000 ha), while the loss of high-biomass forest to logging on private lands (364,000 ha) exceeded the losses to fire across all ownerships. Many remaining high-biomass forest stands are vulnerable to future harvest as only 20 % are strictly protected from logging, while 26 % are not protected at all. The level of protection for high-biomass forests varies by state, for example, 31 % of all high-biomass federal forests in Washington are in high-protection status compared to only 9 % in Oregon. Across the conterminous US, high-biomass forest covers <3 % of all forest land and the PNW region holds 56.8 % of this area or 5.87 million ha. Forests with high-biomass stores are important to document and monitor as they are scarce, often threatened by harvest and development, and their disturbance including timber harvest results in net C losses to the atmosphere that can take a new generation of trees many decades or centuries to offset.

A framework for identifying carbon hotspots and forest management drivers

Spatial analyses of ecosystem system services that are directly relevant to both forest management decision making and conservation in the subtropics are rare. Also, frameworks that identify and map carbon stocks and corresponding forest management drivers using available regional, national, and international-level forest inventory datasets could provide insights into key forest structural characteristics and management practices that are optimal for carbon storage. To address this need we used publicly available USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data and spatial analyses to develop a framework for mapping "carbon hotspots" (i.e. areas of significantly high tree and understory aboveground carbon stocks) across a range of forest types using the state of Florida, USA as an example. We also analyzed influential forest management variables (e.g. forest types, fire, hurricanes, tenure, management activities) using generalized linear mixed modeling to identify drivers associated with these hotspots. Most of the hotspots were located in the northern third of the state some in peri-urban areas, and there were no identifiable hotspots in South Florida. Forest silvicultural treatments (e.g. site preparation, thinning, logging, etc) were not significant predictors of hotspots. Forest types, site quality, and stand age were however significant predictors. Higher site quality and stand age increased the probability of forests being classified as a hotspot. Disturbance type and time since disturbance were not significant predictors in our analyses. This framework can use globally available forest inventory datasets to analyze and map ecosystems service provision areas and bioenergy supplies and identify forest management practices that optimize these services in forests.

Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from the United States forest service northern region, 1906-2010

BACKGROUND

Global forests capture and store significant amounts of CO2 through photosynthesis. When carbon is removed from forests through harvest, a portion of the harvested carbon is stored in wood products, often for many decades. The United States Forest Service (USFS) and other agencies are interested in accurately accounting for carbon flux associated with harvested wood products (HWP) to meet greenhouse gas monitoring commitments and climate change adaptation and mitigation objectives. This paper uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) production accounting approach and the California Forest Project Protocol (CFPP) to estimate HWP carbon storage from 1906 to 2010 for the USFS Northern Region, which includes forests in northern Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, and eastern Washington.

RESULTS

Based on the IPCC approach, carbon stocks in the HWP pool were increasing at one million megagrams of carbon (MgC) per year in the mid 1960s, with peak cumulative storage of 28 million MgC occurring in 1995. Net positive flux into the HWP pool over this period is primarily attributable to high harvest levels in the mid twentieth century. Harvest levels declined after 1970, resulting in less carbon entering the HWP pool. Since 1995, emissions from HWP at solid waste disposal sites have exceeded additions from harvesting, resulting in a decline in the total amount of carbon stored in the HWP pool. The CFPP approach shows a similar trend, with 100-year average carbon storage for each annual Northern Region harvest peaking in 1969 at 937,900 MgC, and fluctuating between 84,000 and 150,000 MgC over the last decade.

CONCLUSIONS

The Northern Region HWP pool is now in a period of negative net annual stock change because the decay of products harvested between 1906 and 2010 exceeds additions of carbon to the HWP pool through harvest. However, total forest carbon includes both HWP and ecosystem carbon, which may have increased over the study period. Though our emphasis is on the Northern Region, we provide a framework by which the IPCC and CFPP methods can be applied broadly at sub-national scales to other regions, land management units, or firms.