Evolutionary rescue from climate change: male indirect genetic effects on lay-dates and their consequences for population persistence

Changes in avian breeding phenology are among the most apparent responses to climate change in free-ranging populations. A key question is whether populations will be able to keep up with the expected rates of environmental change. There is a large body of research on the mechanisms by which avian lay-dates track temperature change and the consequences of (mal)adaptation on population persistence. Often overlooked is the role of males, which can influence the lay-date of their mate through their effect on the prelaying environment. We explore how social plasticity causing male indirect genetic effects can help or hinder population persistence when female genes underpinning lay-date and male genes influencing female's timing of reproduction both respond to climate-mediated selection. We extend quantitative genetic moving optimum models to predict the consequences of social plasticity on the maximum sustainable rate of temperature change, and evaluate our model using a combination of simulated data and empirical estimates from the literature. Our results suggest that predictions for population persistence may be biased if indirect genetic effects and cross-sex genetic correlations are not considered and that the extent of this bias depends on sex differences in how environmental change affects the optimal timing of reproduction. Our model highlights that more empirical work is needed to understand sex-specific effects of environmental change on phenology and the fitness consequences for population dynamics. While we discuss our results exclusively in the context of avian breeding phenology, the approach we take here can be generalized to many different contexts and types of social interaction.

A framework to unlock marine bird energetics

Energetics can provide novel insights into the roles of animals, but employing an energetics approach has traditionally required extensive empirical physiological data on the focal species, something that can be challenging for those that inhabit marine environments. There is therefore a demand for a framework through which to estimate energy expenditure from readily available data. We present the energetic costs associated with important time- and energy-intensive behaviours across nine families of marine bird (including seabirds, ducks, divers and grebes) and nine ecological guilds. We demonstrate a worked example, calculating the year-round energetic expenditure of the great auk, Pinguinus impennis, under three migration scenarios, thereby illustrating the capacity of this approach to make predictions for data-deficient species. We provide a comprehensive framework through which to model marine bird energetics and demonstrate the power of this approach to provide novel, quantitative insights into the influence of marine birds within their ecosystems.

Negative density-dependence buffers against mismatch-induced population decline in the Sinai baton blue butterfly

Phenological mismatches caused by climate change pose a major threat to global biodiversity, yet relatively few studies have reported population declines resulting from mismatch. It has been hypothesised that density effects may underlie this lack of observed responses by buffering against mismatch-induced population decline. We developed an individual-based model of the critically endangered Sinai baton blue butterfly (Pseudophilotes sinaicus) and its hostplant Sinai thyme (Thymus decussatus), parameterised using real field data, to test this hypothesis. Our model showed that the baton blue experiences demographic consequences under only 5 days of phenological mismatch, but that this threshold was increased to 14 days with the inclusion of density-dependent juvenile mortality. The inclusion of density effects also led to the replication of population cycles observed in nature, supporting the ability of our model to accurately represent the baton blue's ecology. These results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that density effects may underlie the observed lack of demographic responses to mismatch in wild populations. However, these buffers may be short-lived in extreme mismatch scenarios, providing a false sense of security against a looming threat of population collapse.

Quantifying inter-annual variability on the space-use of parental Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus) in pursuit of different prey types

Spatial planning for marine areas of multi-species conservation concern requires in-depth assessment of the distribution of predators and their prey. Northern Gannets Morus bassanus are generalist predators that predate several different forage fishes depending on their availability. In the western North Atlantic, gannets employ different dive tactics while in pursuit of different prey types, performing deep, prolonged U-shaped dives when foraging on capelin (Mallotus villosus), and rapid, shallow, V-shaped dives when foraging on larger pelagic fishes. Therefore, much can be inferred about the distribution and abundance of key forage fishes by assessing the foraging behaviour and space-use of gannets. In this study, we aimed to quantify space-use and to determine areas of suitable foraging habitat for gannets in pursuit of different prey types using habitat suitability models and kernel density utilization distributions. We deployed 25 GPS/Time-depth recorder devices on parental Northern Gannets at Cape St. Mary's, Newfoundland, Canada from 2019 to 2021. To assess the influence of environmental variables on gannets foraging for different prey types, we constructed three different habitat suitability models: a U-shaped dive model, and two V-shaped dive models (early and late chick-rearing). Suitable foraging habitat for capelin, deduced by the U-shaped dive model, was defined by coastal, shallow waters with flat relief and sea surface temperatures (SST) of 11-15° C. Suitable habitat for early V-shaped dives was defined by shallow and coastal waters with steep slope and SST of 12-15°C and ~18°C, likely reflecting the variability in environmental preferences of different prey species captured when performing V-shaped dives. Suitable habitat for late V-shaped dives was defined by shallow coastal waters (<100m depth), as well as waters deeper than 200 m, and by SST greater than 16°C. We show that space-use by gannets can vary both within and between years depending on environmental conditions and the prey they are searching for, with consequences for the extent of potential interaction with anthropogenic activities. Further, we suggest regions defined as suitable for U-shaped dives are likely to be critical habitat of multi-species conservation concern, as these regions are likely to represent consistent capelin spawning habitat.

Contrasting environmental conditions precluded lower availability of Antarctic krill affecting breeding chinstrap penguins in the Antarctic Peninsula

Dramatic decreases of chinstrap penguin populations across the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are thought to be influenced by climate-driven changes affecting its main prey, the Antarctic krill, however, empirical evidence supporting such hypotheses are scarce. By coupling data on breeding chinstrap penguins, environmental remote sensing and estimates of krill acoustic density, we were able to demonstrate that penguins substantially increased their foraging effort in a year of low krill availability, with consequent reduction in breeding success. A winter of low sea ice cover followed by a summer/spring with stronger wind and lower marine productivity explained the lower and deeper krill availability. Our results highlight the importance of environmental variability on penguin populations, as variability is expected to increase under climate change, affecting foraging behaviour responses.

Mercury Contamination Challenges the Behavioral Response of a Keystone Species to Arctic Climate Change

Combined effects of multiple, climate change-associated stressors are of mounting concern, especially in Arctic ecosystems. Elevated mercury (Hg) exposure in Arctic animals could affect behavioral responses to changes in foraging landscapes caused by climate change, generating interactive effects on behavior and population resilience. We investigated this hypothesis in little auks (Alle alle), a keystone Arctic seabird. We compiled behavioral data for 44 birds across 5 years using accelerometers while also quantifying blood Hg and environmental conditions. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) and low sea ice coverage reshaped time activity budgets (TABs) and diving patterns, causing decreased resting, increased flight, and longer dives. Mercury contamination was not associated with TABs. However, highly contaminated birds lengthened interdive breaks when making long dives, suggesting Hg-induced physiological limitations. As dive durations increased with warm SST, subtle toxicological effects threaten to increasingly constrain diving and foraging efficiency as climate change progresses, with ecosystem-wide repercussions.

Chick Provisioning in Grey-Faced Petrel (Pterodroma gouldi) under Environmental Stress

Grey-faced Petrels (Pterodroma gouldi) are colonial burrowing seabirds predominantly nesting on offshore islands of the upper North Island of New Zealand. We studied their chick provisioning on Te Hāwere-a-Maki during two years of unfavourable warmer La Niña conditions in 2011 and 2013. We intensively monitored chicks in each year, weighing chicks every 12 h for 10 consecutive days to estimate meal sizes following chick provisioning and to estimate 12-hourly body mass loss as a function of time since last feeding. We found a quadratic relationship of body mass loss with time since last feeding, with rapid digestion of meals following provisioning followed by a period of fasting from five days post feeding as chicks waited an unknown and variable amount of time until their next meal. The rate of body mass loss did not depend on chick age nor body mass, and did not differ between years, but heavier chicks included in our study were more likely to successfully fledge, suggesting a legacy of adult provisioning prior to our study commencing. Our regular handling of chicks for monitoring has no discernible impact on parent provisioning compared to a set of control chicks. The mean estimates of 100-gram meal sizes and 10-day foraging trip durations are likely to be below the break-even point for this species.

Seabird stress and breeding: Endocrine and hematological stress biomarkers differ between gray-faced petrel (Pterodroma gouldi) colonies

Seabird breeding success is known to reflect oceanic conditions. Gray-faced petrels (Pterodroma gouldi) breeding on the east coast of Auckland, New Zealand, exhibit poor reproductive success and slow chick development compared to west coast conspecifics. This study mapped changes in physiological traits (corticosterone [CORT] and hematological parameters) indicative of sublethal stress in this Procellariiform species between the west coast (Ihumoana) and east coast (Hāwere) island colonies. We found adult gray-faced petrels on the east coast to be lighter and, unlike west coast birds, exhibited an attenuation of response CORT levels between incubation and chick-rearing phases. Such responses were also reflected in east coast chicks that were lighter and had higher feather CORT titers than west coast chicks. Measures of adult hematology and plasma biochemistry revealed significantly lower glucose levels in east coast birds and indicated that chick rearing is the most stressful phase of breeding for this species Combined; these results suggest that east coast birds are under greater nutritional stress and that parents appear to transfer the costs of poor foraging to their chicks to preserve their own condition, consequently increasing chick developmental stress. Our results suggest that any long-term decrease in ocean conditions and/or climatic shifts would be more acutely felt by east coast chicks and potentially their parents, resulting in years of poor breeding success rates on a local scale.

What Are Sheep Doing? Tri-Axial Accelerometer Sensor Data Identify the Diel Activity Pattern of Ewe Lambs on Pasture

Monitoring activity patterns of animals offers the opportunity to assess individual health and welfare in support of precision livestock farming. The purpose of this study was to use a triaxial accelerometer sensor to determine the diel activity of sheep on pasture. Six Perendale ewe lambs, each fitted with a neck collar mounting a triaxial accelerometer, were filmed during targeted periods of sheep activities: grazing, lying, walking, and standing. The corresponding acceleration data were fitted using a Random Forest algorithm to classify activity (=classifier). This classifier was then applied to accelerometer data from an additional 10 ewe lambs to determine their activity budgets. Each of these was fitted with a neck collar mounting an accelerometer as well as two additional accelerometers placed on a head halter and a body harness over the shoulders of the animal. These were monitored continuously for three days. A classification accuracy of 89.6% was achieved for the grazing, walking and resting activities (i.e., a new class combining lying and standing activity). Triaxial accelerometer data showed that sheep spent 64% (95% CI 55% to 74%) of daylight time grazing, with grazing at night reduced to 14% (95% CI 8% to 20%). Similar activity budgets were achieved from the halter mounted sensors, but not those on a body harness. These results are consistent with previous studies directly observing daily activity of pasture-based sheep and can be applied in a variety of contexts to investigate animal health and welfare metrics e.g., to better understand the impact that young sheep can suffer when carrying even modest burdens of parasitic nematodes.

Effects of age, sex, and ENSO phase on foraging and flight performance in Nazca boobies

Age-related changes in survival and reproduction are common in seabirds; however, the underlying causes remain elusive. A lack of experience for young individuals, and a decline in foraging performance for old birds, could underlie age-related variation in reproduction because reproductive success is connected closely to provisioning offspring. For seabirds, flapping flight during foraging trips is physiologically costly; inexperience or senescent decline in performance of this demanding activity might cap delivery of food to the nest, providing a proximate explanation for poor breeding success in young and old age, respectively. We evaluated the hypothesis that young and old Nazca boobies (Sula granti), a Galápagos seabird, demonstrate deficits in foraging outcomes and flight performance. We tagged incubating male and female adults across the life span with both accelerometer and GPS loggers during the incubation periods of two breeding seasons (years), during the 2015 El Niño and the following weak La Niña. We tested the ability of age, sex, and environment to explain variation in foraging outcomes (e.g., mass gained) and flight variables (e.g., wingbeat frequency). Consistent with senescence, old birds gained less mass while foraging than middle-aged individuals, a marginal effect, and achieved a slower airspeed late in a foraging trip. Contrary to expectations, young birds showed no deficit in foraging outcomes or flight performance, except for airspeed (contingent on environment). Young birds flew slower than middle-aged birds in 2015, but faster than middle-aged birds in 2016. Wingbeat frequency, flap-glide ratio, and body displacement (approximating wingbeat strength) failed to predict airspeed and were unaffected by age. Sex influenced nearly all aspects of performance. Environment affected flight performance and foraging outcomes. Boobies' foraging outcomes were better during the extreme 2015 El Niño than during the 2016 weak La Niña, a surprising result given the negative effects tropical seabirds often experience during extreme El Niños.

Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long-term avian studies

Many organisms reproduce in seasonal environments, where selection on timing of reproduction is particularly strong as consumers need to synchronize reproduction with the peaked occurrence of their food. When a consumer species changes its phenology at a slower rate than its resources, this may induce a trophic mismatch, that is, offspring growing up after the peak in food availability, potentially leading to reductions in growth and survival. However, there is large variation in the degree of trophic mismatches as well as in its effects on reproductive output.Here, we explore the potential causes for variation in the strength of trophic mismatches in published studies of birds. Specifically, we ask whether the changes in the degree of mismatch that have occurred over time can be explained by a bird's (a) breeding latitude, (b) migration distance, and/or (c) life-history traits.We found that none of these three factors explain changes in the degree of mismatch over time. Nevertheless, food phenology did advance faster at more northerly latitudes, while shifts in bird phenology did not show a trend with latitude.We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability. We propose a pathway to improve the quantification of trophic mismatches, guided by a more rigorous understanding of links between consumers and their resources.

Foraging niche overlap during chick-rearing in the sexually dimorphic Westland petrel

Most Procellariform seabirds are pelagic, breed in summer when prey availability peaks, and migrate for winter. They also display a dual foraging strategy (short and long trips) and sex-specific foraging. The Westland petrel Procellaria westlandica, a New Zealand endemic, is one of the rare seabirds breeding in winter. Preliminary findings on this large and sexually dimorphic petrel suggest a foraging behaviour with no evidence of a dual strategy, within a narrow range and with shared areas between sexes. To investigate further this unusual strategy, the present study determined the fine-scale at-sea behaviours (global positioning system and accelerometer data loggers) and trophic niches (stable isotopes in whole blood) of chick-rearing individuals (16 males and 13 females). All individuals foraged on the shelf-slope of the west coast of New Zealand's South Island with short, unimodal trips. Both sexes foraged at similar intensity without temporal, spatial or isotopic niche segregation. These findings suggest the presence of a winter prey resource close to the colony, sufficient to satisfy the nutritional needs of breeding without increasing the foraging effort or intra-specific competition avoidance during winter. Additional data are needed to assess the consistency of foraging niche between the sexes and its reproductive outcomes in view of anticipated environmental changes.

Using value of information to prioritize research needs for migratory bird management under climate change: a case study using federal land acquisition in the United States

In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non-governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision-making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources of uncertainty should be reduced to improve land acquisition decisions to protect migratory birds in the face of climate change. The qualitative value of information analysis process involves four steps: (i) articulating alternative hypotheses; (ii) determining the magnitude of uncertainty regarding each hypothesis; (iii) evaluating the relevance of each hypothesis to acquisition decision-making; and (iv) assessing the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty surrounding each hypothesis through research and monitoring. We demonstrate this approach using the objectives of 3 U.S. federal land acquisition programs that focus on migratory bird management. We used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, and professional judgement to evaluate 11 hypotheses about the effect of climate change on migratory birds. Based on our results, we provide a list of priorities for future research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty and improve land acquisition decisions for the programs considered in our case study. Reducing uncertainty about how climate change will influence the spatial distribution of priority species and biotic homogenization were identified as the highest priorities for future research due to both the value of this information for improving land acquisition decisions and the feasibility of reducing uncertainty through research and monitoring. Research on how changes in precipitation patterns and winter severity will influence migratory bird abundance is also expected to benefit land acquisition decisions. By contrast, hypotheses about phenology and migration distance were identified as low priorities for research. By providing a rigorous and transparent approach to prioritizing research, we demonstrate that qualitative value of information is a valuable tool for prioritizing research and improving management decisions in other complex, high-uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative value of information analysis is not possible. Given the inherent complexity of ecological systems under climate change, and the difficulty of identifying management-relevant research priorities, we expect this approach to have wide applications within the field of natural resource management.

Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator-prey interaction: Simpler works better

Global climate change has sparked a vast research effort into the demographic and evolutionary consequences of mismatches between consumer and resource phenology. Many studies have used the difference in peak dates to quantify phenological synchrony (match in dates, MD), but this approach has been suggested to be inconclusive, since it does not incorporate the temporal overlap between the phenological distributions (match in overlap, MO). We used 24 years of detailed data on the phenology of a predator-prey system, the great tit (Parus major) and the main food for its nestlings, caterpillars, to estimate MD and MO at the population and brood levels. We compared the performance of both metrics on two key demographic parameters: offspring recruitment probability and selection on the timing of reproduction. Although MD and MO correlated quadratically as expected, MD was a better predictor for both offspring recruitment and selection on timing than MO. We argue-and verify through simulations-that this is because quantifying MO has to be based on nontrivial, difficult-to-verify assumptions that likely render MO too inaccurate as a proxy for food availability in practice. Our results have important implications for the allocation of research efforts in long-term population studies in highly seasonal environments.

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches

Climate change has often led to unequal shifts in the seasonal timing (phenology) of interacting species, such as consumers and their resource, leading to phenological 'mismatches'. Mismatches occur when the time at which a consumer species's demands for a resource are high does not match with the period when this resource is abundant. Here, we review the evolutionary and population-level consequences of such mismatches and how these depend on other ecological factors, such as additional drivers of selection and density-dependent recruitment. This review puts the research on phenological mismatches into a conceptual framework, applies this framework beyond consumer-resource interactions and illustrates this framework using examples drawn from the vast body of literature on mismatches. Finally, we point out priority questions for research on this key impact of climate change.

Balancing personal maintenance with parental investment in a chick-rearing seabird: physiological indicators change with foraging conditions

Seabird parents use a conservative breeding strategy that favours long-term survival over intensive parental investment, particularly under harsh conditions. Here, we examine whether variation in several physiological indicators reflects the balance between parental investment and survival in common murres (Uria aalge) under a wide range of foraging conditions. Blood samples were taken from adults during mid-chick rearing from 2007 to 2014 and analysed for corticosterone (CORT, stress hormone), beta-hydroxybutyrate (BUTY, lipid metabolism reflecting ongoing mass loss), and haematocrit (reflecting blood oxygen capacity). These measures, plus body mass, were related to three levels of food availability (good, intermediate, and poor years) for capelin, the main forage fish for murres in this colony. Adult body mass and chick-feeding rates were higher in good years than in poor years and heavier murres were more likely to fledge a chick than lighter birds. Contrary to prediction, BUTY levels were higher in good years than in intermediate and poor years. Murres lose body mass just after their chicks hatch and these results for BUTY suggest that mass loss may be delayed in good years. CORT levels were higher in intermediate years than in good or poor years. Higher CORT levels in intermediate years may reflect the necessity of increasing foraging effort, whereas extra effort is not needed in good years and it is unlikely to increase foraging success in poor years. Haematocrit levels were higher in poor years than in good years, a difference that may reflect either their poorer condition or increased diving requirements when food is less available. Our long-term data set provided insight into how decisions about resource allocation under different foraging conditions are relating to physiological indicators, a relationship that is relevant to understanding how seabirds may respond to changes in marine ecosystems as ocean temperatures continue to rise.

Sea ice phenology and primary productivity pulses shape breeding success in Arctic seabirds

Spring sea ice phenology regulates the timing of the two consecutive pulses of marine autotrophs that form the base of the Arctic marine food webs. This timing has been suggested to be the single most essential driver of secondary production and the efficiency with which biomass and energy are transferred to higher trophic levels. We investigated the chronological sequence of productivity pulses and its potential cascading impacts on the reproductive performance of the High Arctic seabird community from Svalbard, Norway. We provide evidence that interannual changes in the seasonal patterns of marine productivity may impact the breeding performance of little auks and Brünnich's guillemots. These results may be of particular interest given that current global warming trends in the Barents Sea region predict one of the highest rates of sea ice loss within the circumpolar Arctic. However, local- to regional-scale heterogeneity in sea ice melting phenology may add uncertainty to predictions of climate-driven environmental impacts on seabirds. Indeed, our fine-scale analysis reveals that the inshore Brünnich's guillemots are facing a slower advancement in the timing of ice melt compared to the offshore-foraging little auks. We provide a suitable framework for analyzing the effects of climate-driven sea ice disappearance on seabird fitness.

Carry-over effects on the annual cycle of a migratory seabird: an experimental study

Long‐lived migratory animals must balance the cost of current reproduction with their own condition ahead of a challenging migration and future reproduction. In these species, carry‐over effects, which occur when events in one season affect the outcome of the subsequent season, may be particularly exacerbated. However, how carry‐over effects influence future breeding outcomes and whether (and how) they also affect behaviour during migration and wintering is unclear.

Here we investigate carry‐over effects induced by a controlled, bidirectional manipulation of the duration of reproductive effort on the migratory, wintering and subsequent breeding behaviour of a long‐lived migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus. By cross‐fostering chicks of different age between nests, we successfully prolonged or shortened by ∼25% the chick‐rearing period of 42 breeding pairs. We tracked the adults with geolocators over the subsequent year and combined migration route data with at‐sea activity budgets obtained from high‐resolution saltwater‐immersion data. Migratory behaviour was also recorded during non‐experimental years (the year before and/or two years after manipulation) for a subset of birds, allowing comparison between experimental and non‐experimental years within treatment groups.

All birds cared for chicks until normal fledging age, resulting in birds with a longer breeding period delaying their departure on migration; however, birds that finished breeding earlier did not start migrating earlier. Increased reproductive effort resulted in less time spent at the wintering grounds, a reduction in time spent resting daily and a delayed start of breeding with lighter eggs and chicks and lower breeding success the following breeding season. Conversely, reduced reproductive effort resulted in more time resting and less time foraging during the winter, but a similar breeding phenology and success compared with control birds the following year, suggesting that ‘positive’ carry‐over effects may also occur but perhaps have a less long‐lasting impact than those incurred from increased reproductive effort.

Our results shed light on how carry‐over effects can develop and modify an adult animal's behaviour year‐round and reveal how a complex interaction between current and future reproductive fitness, individual condition and external constraints can influence life‐history decisions.

Seasonal Variation in Parental Care Drives Sex-Specific Foraging by a Monomorphic Seabird

Evidence of sex-specific foraging in monomorphic seabirds is increasing though the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We investigate differential parental care as a mechanism for sex-specific foraging in monomorphic Common Murres (Uria aalge), where the male parent alone provisions the chick after colony departure. Using a combination of geolocation-immersion loggers and stable isotopes, we assess two hypotheses: the reproductive role specialization hypothesis and the energetic constraint hypothesis. We compare the foraging behavior of females (n = 15) and males (n = 9) during bi-parental at the colony, post-fledging male-only parental care and winter when parental care is absent. As predicted by the reproductive role specialization hypothesis, we found evidence of sex-specific foraging during post-fledging only, the stage with the greatest divergence in parental care roles. Single-parenting males spent almost twice as much time diving per day and foraged at lower quality prey patches relative to independent females. This implies a potential energetic constraint for males during the estimated 62.8 ± 8.9 days of offspring dependence at sea. Contrary to the predictions of the energetic constraint hypothesis, we found no evidence of sex-specific foraging during biparental care, suggesting that male parents did not forage for their own benefit before colony departure in anticipation of post-fledging energy constraints. We hypothesize that unpredictable prey conditions at Newfoundland colonies in recent years may limit male parental ability to allocate additional time and energy to self-feeding during biparental care, without compromising chick survival. Our findings support differential parental care as a mechanism for sex-specific foraging in monomorphic murres, and highlight the need to consider ecological context in the interpretation of sex-specific foraging behavior.