Opportunity for healthy ageing: lessening the burden of adult pneumococcal disease in Central and Eastern Europe, and Israel

Capture-Recapture Estimators in Epidemiology with Applications to Pertussis and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Surveillance

Introduction

Surveillance networks are often not exhaustive nor completely complementary. In such situations, capture-recapture methods can be used for incidence estimation. The choice of estimator and their robustness with respect to the homogeneity and independence assumptions are however not well documented.

Methods

We investigated the performance of five different capture-recapture estimators in a simulation study. Eight different scenarios were used to detect and combine case-information. The scenarios increasingly violated assumptions of independence of samples and homogeneity of detection probabilities. Belgian datasets on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pertussis provided motivating examples.

Results

No estimator was unbiased in all scenarios. Performance of the parametric estimators depended on how much of the dependency and heterogeneity were correctly modelled. Model building was limited by parameter estimability, availability of additional information (e.g. covariates) and the possibilities inherent to the method. In the most complex scenario, methods that allowed for detection probabilities conditional on previous detections estimated the total population size within a 20–30% error-range. Parametric estimators remained stable if individual data sources lost up to 50% of their data. The investigated non-parametric methods were more susceptible to data loss and their performance was linked to the dependence between samples; overestimating in scenarios with little dependence, underestimating in others. Issues with parameter estimability made it impossible to model all suggested relations between samples for the IPD and pertussis datasets. For IPD, the estimates for the Belgian incidence for cases aged 50 years and older ranged from 44 to58/100,000 in 2010. The estimates for pertussis (all ages, Belgium, 2014) ranged from 24.2 to30.8/100,000.

Conclusion

We encourage the use of capture-recapture methods, but epidemiologists should preferably include datasets for which the underlying dependency structure is not too complex, a priori investigate this structure, compensate for it within the model and interpret the results with the remaining unmodelled heterogeneity in mind.

PREVALENCE OF FALLS AND ASSOCIATED RISK FACTORS AMONG AGED POPULATION: COMMUNITY BASED CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY FROM TURKEY

AIM

The aim of the study was to examine the prevalence and risk factors of falls among persons aged 65 years and older in Qanakkale, Turkey.

METHODS

A community based cross-sectional study was conducted between May-September 2013. A total of 1,001 elderly living in Çanakkale city centre were included into our study. The research was carried out with face-to-face interviews and survey forms. The survey form consists of seven sections: demographic characteristics, significance of ageing, daily activities, quality of life and social network in old age, use of health services and health problems, bad habits, and the European Health Impact Scale. Data analysis was performed using the SPSS software version 19.0. For data investigation the chi-square and logistic regression analyses were used.

RESULTS

The prevalence of falls at home or outside was 32.1% among elderly in the last six months period. The prevalence of falling for women at home as well as outside was statistically significantly higher than for men (p < 0.05). According to multivariate analysis results the risk of falling at home or outside was increased by 2.7 times in women (95% CI: 1.90-3.75), by. 2.1 times in those who cannot take care of themselves (95% Cl: 1.33-3.29), and by 1.7 times in those who have low quality of life (95% Cl: 1.24-2.43).

CONCLUSIONS

This community based cross-sectional study showed that prevalence of falling was high in aged persons living in centre of Çanakkale located in the western part of Turkey. Moreover, the risk was increased in women, those who cannot take care for themselves, and those with low standard of living.

Which individuals are at increased risk of pneumococcal disease and why? Impact of COPD, asthma, smoking, diabetes, and/or chronic heart disease on community-acquired pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease

Pneumococcal disease (including community-acquired pneumonia and invasive pneumococcal disease) poses a burden to the community all year round, especially in those with chronic underlying conditions. Individuals with COPD, asthma or who smoke, and those with chronic heart disease or diabetes mellitus have been shown to be at increased risk of pneumococcal disease compared with those without these risk factors. These conditions, and smoking, can also adversely affect patient outcomes, including short-term and long-term mortality rates, following pneumonia. Community-acquired pneumonia, and in particular pneumococcal pneumonia, is associated with a significant economic burden, especially in those who are hospitalised, and also has an impact on a patient's quality of life. Therefore, physicians should target individuals with COPD, asthma, heart disease or diabetes mellitus, and those who smoke, for pneumococcal vaccination at the earliest opportunity at any time of the year.

Etiologic agents of central nervous system infections among febrile hospitalized patients in the country of Georgia

Objectives

There is a large spectrum of viral, bacterial, fungal, and prion pathogens that cause central nervous system (CNS) infections. As such, identification of the etiological agent requires multiple laboratory tests and accurate diagnosis requires clinical and epidemiological information. This hospital-based study aimed to determine the main causes of acute meningitis and encephalitis and enhance laboratory capacity for CNS infection diagnosis.

Methods

Children and adults patients clinically diagnosed with meningitis or encephalitis were enrolled at four reference health centers. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was collected for bacterial culture, and in-house and multiplex RT-PCR testing was conducted for herpes simplex virus (HSV) types 1 and 2, mumps virus, enterovirus, varicella zoster virus (VZV), Streptococcus pneumoniae, HiB and Neisseria meningitidis.

Results

Out of 140 enrolled patients, the mean age was 23.9 years, and 58% were children. Bacterial or viral etiologies were determined in 51% of patients. Five Streptococcus pneumoniae cultures were isolated from CSF. Based on in-house PCR analysis, 25 patients were positive for S. pneumoniae, 6 for N. meningitidis, and 1 for H. influenzae. Viral multiplex PCR identified infections with enterovirus (n = 26), VZV (n = 4), and HSV-1 (n = 2). No patient was positive for mumps or HSV-2.

Conclusions

Study findings indicate that S. pneumoniae and enteroviruses are the main etiologies in this patient cohort. The utility of molecular diagnostics for pathogen identification combined with the knowledge provided by the investigation may improve health outcomes of CNS infection cases in Georgia.

Regional advisory board position statement on optimal pneumococcal vaccination in adults. Update to 2011 consensus on adult pneumococcal disease: update on optimal pneumococcal vaccination in adults

BACKGROUND

An important development in the field of adult pneumococcal vaccination since the last Consensus Statement, published by the Expert Panel of Central and Eastern Europe and Israel (the Region) in September 2012, was the licensure of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) for adults aged 50 years and older.

DISCUSSION

The Expert Panel has developed this Position Statement as an update to its previous Consensus to address the following topics which are likely to be on the agenda of national scientific societies during the ongoing updates of vaccination recommendations in the Region: the availability of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine for adults over 50 years of age, the available clinical evidence on its use in adults, and the future place of conjugate vaccines in adult pneumococcal vaccination. The Expert Panel concluded that there is sufficient epidemiologic immunogenicity and safety evidence to use PCV 13 in adults over 50 years of age.

RESULTS

The use of conjugate vaccine induces immunological memory and can overcome some limitations associated with the plain polysaccharide vaccine (PPV). It was also agreed that, if the use of PPV is considered appropriate, PCV13 should be administered first, regardless of prior pneumococcal vaccination status.