Distribution of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Europe during the first 12 peak weeks of outbreak

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023.

OBJECTIVE

We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels.

METHODS

In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period.

RESULTS

Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on primary health care practices and patient management in the Republic of Moldova - results from the PRICOV-19 survey

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an enormous impact on health systems in Europe and has generated unprecedented challenges for tertiary care. Less is known about the effects on the activities of local family doctors (FDs), who have shifted tasks and adapted their practice to accommodate the new services brought by the pandemic. The PRICOV-19 study was a multi-country survey aiming to understand the challenges posed by the pandemic in primary health care (PHC) practices around Europe. Within the framework of this study, we assessed the impact of the pandemic on PHC facilities in urban, rural, and mixed urban/rural areas in the Republic of Moldova.

METHODS

We present the results from the PRICOV-19 questionnaire designed at Ghent University (Belgium) and distributed between January and March 2021 to PHC facilities from the 35 districts of the Republic of Moldova. This analysis presents descriptive data on limitations to service delivery, staff role changes, implementation and acceptance of COVID-19 guidelines, and incidents reported on staff and patient safety during the pandemic.

RESULTS

Results highlighted the differences between facilities located in urban, rural, and mixed areas in several dimensions of PHC. Nearly half of the surveyed facilities experienced limitations in the building or infrastructure when delivering services during the pandemic. 95% of respondents reported an increase in time spent giving information to patients by phone, and 88% reported an increase in responsibilities. Few practices reported errors in clinical assessments, though a slightly higher number of incidents were reported in urban areas. Half of the respondents reported difficulties delivering routine care to patients with chronic conditions and a delay in treatment-seeking.

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, the workload of PHC staff saw a significant increase, and practices met important structural and organizational limitations. Consequently, these limitations may have also affected care delivery for vulnerable patients with chronic conditions. Adjustments and bottlenecks need to be addressed, considering the different needs of PHC facilities in urban, rural, and mixed areas.

Latitude and longitude as drivers of COVID-19 waves' behavior in Europe: A time-space perspective of the pandemic

BACKGROUND

Social restrictions and vaccination seem to have shaped the pandemic development in Europe, but the influence of geographical position is still debated. This study aims to verify whether the pandemic spread through Europe following a particular direction, during the period between the start of the pandemic and November 2021. The existence of a spatial gradient for epidemic intensity is also hypothesized.

METHODS

Daily COVID-19 epidemiological data were extracted from Our World in Data COVID-19 database, which also included vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions data. Latitude and longitude of each country's centroid were used as geographic variables. Epidemic periods were delimited from epidemic surge data. Multivariable linear and Cox's regression models were performed for each epidemic period to test if geographical variables influenced surge dates. Generalized additive models (GAM) were used to test the spatial gradient hypothesis with three epidemic intensity measures.

RESULTS

Linear models suggest a possible west-east shift in the first epidemic period and features a significant association of NPIs with epidemic surge delay. Neither latitude nor longitude had significant associations with epidemic surge timing in both second and third periods. Latitude displays strong negative associations with all epidemic intensity measures in GAM models. Vaccination was also negatively associated with intensity.

CONCLUSIONS

A longitudinal spread of the pandemic in Europe seems plausible, particularly concerning the first wave. However, a recurrent trend was not observed. Southern Europe countries may have experienced increased transmissibility and incidence, despite climatic conditions apparently unfavourable to the virus.

A Multicenter Study about the Population Treated in the Respiratory Triage Stations Deployed by the Red Cross during the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Care demand exceeded the availability of human and material resources during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is the reason why triage was fundamental. The objective is to know the clinical and sociodemographic factors of confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases in triage stations from different Ecuadorian provinces.

METHOD

A multicenter study with a retrospective and descriptive design. The patients included were those who accessed the Respiratory Triage stations deployed by the Ecuadorian Red Cross in eight Ecuadorian provinces during March and April 2021. Triage allows for selecting patients that need urgent treatment and favors efficacy of health resources.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of a total of 21,120 patients, of which 43.1% were men and 56.9% were women, with an age range between 0 and 98 years old. Severity of COVID-19 behaved differently according to gender, with mild symptoms predominating in women and severe or critical symptoms in men. Higher incidence of critical cases was observed in patients over 65 years old. It was observed that overweight predominated in critical, severe, and moderate cases, while the body mass index of patients with mild symptoms was within the normal range.

CONCLUSIONS

The Ecuadorian Red Cross units identified some suspected COVID-19 cases, facilitating their follow-up and isolation. Fever was the most significant early finding.

COVID-19 Medical and Pharmacological Management in the European Countries Compared to Italy: An Overview

(1) Background: Italy accounts for more than 150,000 deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leading the top rank in SARS-CoV-2-caused deceases in Europe. A survey on the different ways by which the COVID-19 pandemic emergency was managed in the foreign European countries compared to Italy is the purpose of this paper. (2) Methods: A literature search and various mathematical algorithms to approach a rank scoring scale were used to describe in detail the different approaches used by European countries to manage the COVID-19 pandemic emergency. (3) Results: The study showed that Italy stands at the bottom ranking for COVID-19 management due to its high mortality rate. Possible causes of the observed huge numbers of hospitalization and deaths were (a) the demographic composition of the European country; (b) its decentralized healthcare system organization; (c) the role of correct pharmacology in the early stages before hospitalization. Post-mortem examinations were of paramount importance to elucidate the etiopathogenesis of COVID-19 and to tailor a suitable and proper therapy in the early symptomatic stages of COVID-19, preventing hospitalization. (4) Conclusions: Factors such as the significant impact on elderly people, the public health organization prevalently state-owned and represented mainly by hospitals, and criticism of the home therapy approach toward SARS-CoV-2-infected people, may have concurred in increasing the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy.

COVID-19 pandemic and reasons to prioritize the needs of the health care system to ensure its sustainability: A scoping review from January to October 2020 (Review)

The worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) led the World Health Organization to characterize the pandemic as a public health emergency of international concern. National health care systems in countries during the initial surge of the pandemic were unable to handle the sanitarian crisis that had emerged. Thus, the prevention and control of future global health emergencies must be a priority. The present scoping review aimed to retrieve articles that summarize the current experience on issues related to historical knowledge, and epidemiology, clinical features and overall burden of SARS-CoV-2 on health care services. In summary, a comprehensive overview of the information that has been learnt during this period is presented in the current review. Furthermore, taking into account the global experience, the need for planning cohesive and functional health services before similar pandemic events occur in the future is highlighted. The next public health issue should be prevented rather than treated. In spite of the vaccination benefits, a number of sporadic cases of SARS-CoV-2infections will persist. Information collected remains relevant for appraising how similar threats can be faced in the future. Overall, collaborative health care plans need to be rethought to increase preparedness.