Barriers and facilitators to the delivery of age-friendly health services in Primary Health Care centres in southwest, Nigeria: A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

With the rapid growth of Nigeria's older population, it has become important to establish age-friendly healthcare systems that support care for older people. This study aimed to explore the barriers and facilitators to the delivery of age-friendly health services from the perspectives of primary healthcare managers in Lagos State, Nigeria.

METHOD

We conducted 13 key informant interviews including medical officers of health, principal officers of the (Primary Health Care) PHC Board and board members at the state level. Using a grounded theory approach, qualitative data analysis was initially done by rapid thematic analysis followed by constant comparative analysis using Dedoose software to create a codebook. Three teams of two coders each blind-coded the interviews, resolved coding discrepancies, and reviewed excerpts by code to extract themes.

RESULTS

The main barriers to the delivery of age-friendly services included the lack of recognition of older adults as a priority population group; absence of PHC policies targeted to serve older adults specifically; limited training in care of older adults; lack of dedicated funding for care services for older adults and data disaggregated by age to drive decision-making. Key facilitators included an acknowledged mission of the PHCs to provide services for all ages; opportunities for the enhancement of older adult care; availability of a new building template that supports facility design which is more age-friendly; access to basic health care funds; and a positive attitude towards capacity building for existing workforce.

CONCLUSION

While we identified a number of challenges, these offer opportunities to strengthen and prioritize services for older adults in PHCs and build on existing facilitators. Work is needed to identify and test interventions to overcome these challenges and improve the responsiveness of the PHC system to older adults through the delivery of age-friendly health services in PHCs in Lagos, Nigeria.

Provider and facility readiness for age-friendly health services for older adults in primary health care centres in southwest, Nigeria

There is a growing focus on interventions at the health system level to promote healthy aging and provide age-friendly health services (AFHS) in low- and middle-income countries where populations are aging. This study aimed to determine the provider and facility readiness for AFHS. We developed and implemented surveys to collect PHC facility capacity and readiness to deliver AFHS and a KAP survey for facility healthcare workers based on guidelines from the WHO age-friendly tool kit and questionnaires from other studies. Direct observation and structured interviews of facility heads were conducted in a stratified random sample of 15 out of the 57 comprehensive PHC facilities in Lagos, Nigeria. One hundred and twenty providers were conveniently sampled for the KAP survey. Statistical analysis was conducted using STATA version 15 (StataCorp, College Station, Texas, USA). For facility readiness, only 13.3% of PHCs sometimes offered hearing assessment and none of the PHCs offered colorectal cancer assessment. Few (20.0%) facilities offered home services and only 1 (0.7%) had dedicated funding for care of older people. Ramps were at the entrance in 60.0% of facilities and almost half (43.3%) of the PHCs had wheelchair accessible entrances to the public toilets. The majority of HCWs (81.7%) had heard about healthy aging but only 5.0% about AFHS, only 10.8% reported formal training. Around a third knew about specific conditions which affect people as they age, including; depression (37.5%), urinary incontinence (35.0%), and falls/immobility (33.3%). Over half of the providers (54.2%) screened for malnutrition in older patients, 25.8% screened for suspected elder abuse and much less (19.2%) for delirium. This study found some areas of strength but also gaps in facility readiness as well as knowledge and training needed to support AFHS care. We recommend identifying interventions to improve the availability and delivery of care for older adults.

Examination of physical activity development in early childhood: protocol for a longitudinal cohort study of mother-toddler dyads

BACKGROUND

Physical activity (PA) development in toddlers (age 1 and 2 years) is not well understood, partly because of a lack of analytic tools for accelerometer-based data processing that can accurately evaluate PA among toddlers. This has led to a knowledge gap regarding how parenting practices around PA, mothers' PA level, mothers' parenting stress, and child developmental and behavioral problems influence PA development in early childhood.

METHODS

The Child and Mother Physical Activity Study is a longitudinal study to observe PA development in toddlerhood and examine the influence of personal and parental characteristics on PA development. The study is designed to refine and validate an accelerometer-based machine learning algorithm for toddler activity recognition (Aim 1), apply the algorithm to compare the trajectories of toddler PA levels in males and females age 1-3 years (Aim 2), and explore the association between gross motor development and PA development in toddlerhood, as well as how parenting practices around PA, mothers' PA, mothers' parenting stress, and child developmental and behavioral problems are associated with toddlerhood PA development (Exploratory Aims 3a-c).

DISCUSSION

This study will be one of the first to use longitudinal data to validate a machine learning activity recognition algorithm and apply the algorithm to quantify free-living ambulatory movement in toddlers. The study findings will help fill a significant methodological gap in toddler PA measurement and expand the body of knowledge on the factors influencing early childhood PA development.

A novel emergency medicine cultural competency curriculum addressing health care disparities

BACKGROUND

Effective cultural competency (CC) training for future health professionals is an important first step towards improving healthcare disparities (HCD). The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) now requires that institutions train residents and faculty members in CC relevant to the patient population they serve.

METHODS

Using Kern's Model, we created and implemented a novel CC curriculum tailored to specific program needs in an emergency medicine residency program.

RESULTS

At the end of the curriculum, respondents reported having a better understanding of the importance of CC for their practice (p = 0.004) and of how a patient's personal and historical context affects treatment (p = 0.002). They also reported an increase in the frequency of practicing strategies to reduce bias in themselves (p < 0.001) and others (p < 0.001), as well as comfort interacting with and treating patients from different backgrounds (p < 0.001). Lastly, they reported improved preparedness to collaborate with communities to address HCD (p = 0.004) and to identify community leaders to do so (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The challenges of CC training demonstrate the need for a standard yet adaptable framework. We have designed, implemented, and evaluated a novel curriculum tailored to the specific needs of our EM residency program. The curriculum improved participants' attitudes, preparedness, and self-reported behaviors regarding CC and HCD. This framework represents an example of a successful model to meet ACGME requirements.

Enhanced charge density wave coherence in a light-quenched, high-temperature superconductor

Superconductivity and charge density waves (CDWs) are competitive, yet coexisting, orders in cuprate superconductors. To understand their microscopic interdependence, a probe capable of discerning their interaction on its natural length and time scale is necessary. We use ultrafast resonant soft x-ray scattering to track the transient evolution of CDW correlations in YBa₂Cu₃O_6+x after the quench of superconductivity by an infrared laser pulse. We observe a nonthermal response of the CDW order characterized by a near doubling of the correlation length within ≈1 picosecond of the superconducting quench. Our results are consistent with a model in which the interaction between superconductivity and CDWs manifests inhomogeneously through disruption of spatial coherence, with superconductivity playing the dominant role in stabilizing CDW topological defects, such as discommensurations.

Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks: Dynamic Panel Data (Preprint)

Background

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta.

Objective

The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred.

Methods

We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate.

Results

Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak.

Conclusions

These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.

The Interplay Between Policy and COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 transmission rates in South Asia initially were under control when governments implemented health policies aimed at controlling the pandemic such as quarantines, travel bans, and border, business, and school closures. Governments have since relaxed public health restrictions, which resulted in significant outbreaks, shifting the global epicenter of COVID-19 to India. Ongoing systematic public health surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic is needed to inform disease prevention policy to re-establish control over the pandemic within South Asia.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to inform public health leaders about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic, how South Asia displays differences within and among countries and other global regions, and where immediate action is needed to control the outbreaks.

METHODS

We extracted COVID-19 data spanning 62 days from public health registries and calculated traditional and enhanced surveillance metrics. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in South Asia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shifts in variables with a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

RESULTS

Traditional surveillance metrics indicate that South Asian countries have an alarming outbreak, with India leading the region with 310,310 new daily cases in accordance with the 7-day moving average. Enhanced surveillance indicates that while Pakistan and Bangladesh still have a high daily number of new COVID-19 cases (n=4819 and n=3878, respectively), their speed of new infections declined from April 12-25, 2021, from 2.28 to 2.18 and 3.15 to 2.35 daily new infections per 100,000 population, respectively, which suggests that their outbreaks are decreasing and that these countries are headed in the right direction. In contrast, India's speed of new infections per 100,000 population increased by 52% during the same period from 14.79 to 22.49 new cases per day per 100,000 population, which constitutes an increased outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

Relaxation of public health restrictions and the spread of novel variants fueled the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia. Public health surveillance indicates that shifts in policy and the spread of new variants correlate with a drastic expansion in the pandemic, requiring immediate action to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Surveillance is needed to inform leaders whether policies help control the pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System in Canada: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted structures and communities across the globe. Numerous regions of the world have had varying responses in their attempts to contain the spread of the virus. Factors such as public health policies, governance, and sociopolitical climate have led to differential levels of success at controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Ultimately, a more advanced surveillance metric for COVID-19 transmission is necessary to help government systems and national leaders understand which responses have been effective and gauge where outbreaks occur.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to provide advanced COVID-19 surveillance metrics for Canada at the country, province, and territory level that account for shifts in the pandemic including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence. Enhanced surveillance identifies risks for explosive growth and regions that have controlled outbreaks successfully.

METHODS

Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from Canadian public health registries for 13 provinces and territories. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Canada as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

RESULTS

We compare the week of February 7-13, 2021, with the week of February 14-20, 2021. Canada, as a whole, had a decrease in speed from 8.4 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 7.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population. The persistence of new cases during the week of February 14-20 reported 7.5 cases that are a result of COVID-19 transmissions 7 days earlier. The two most populous provinces of Ontario and Quebec both experienced decreases in speed from 7.9 and 11.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population for the week of February 7-13 to speeds of 6.9 and 9.3 for the week of February 14-20, respectively. Nunavut experienced a significant increase in speed during this time, from 3.3 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 10.9 daily new cases per 100,000 population.

CONCLUSIONS

Canada excelled at COVID-19 control early on in the pandemic, especially during the first COVID-19 shutdown. The second wave at the end of 2020 resulted in a resurgence of the outbreak, which has since been controlled. Enhanced surveillance identifies outbreaks and where there is the potential for explosive growth, which informs proactive health policy.

Surveillance of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analyses

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively.

METHODS

We performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

RESULTS

New COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to -0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (-1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000).

CONCLUSIONS

The United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses.

Latin America and the Caribbean SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented stress on economies, food systems, and health care resources in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Existing surveillance provides a proxy of the COVID-19 caseload and mortalities; however, these measures make it difficult to identify the dynamics of the pandemic and places where outbreaks are likely to occur. Moreover, existing surveillance techniques have failed to measure the dynamics of the pandemic.

Objective

This study aimed to provide additional surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission to track changes in the speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence in the transmission of the pandemic more accurately than existing metrics.

Methods

Through a longitudinal trend analysis, we extracted COVID-19 data over 45 days from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to monitor the daily number of cases in the LAC as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano–Bond estimator in R. COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the LAC between September 30 and October 6, 2020, and between October 7 and 13, 2020.

Results

The LAC saw a reduction in the speed, acceleration, and jerk for the week of October 13, 2020, compared to the week of October 6, 2020, accompanied by reductions in new cases and the 7-day moving average. For the week of October 6, 2020, Belize reported the highest acceleration and jerk, at 1.7 and 1.8, respectively, which is particularly concerning, given its high mortality rate. The Bahamas also had a high acceleration at 1.5. In total, 11 countries had a positive acceleration during the week of October 6, 2020, whereas only 6 countries had a positive acceleration for the week of October 13, 2020. The TAC displayed an overall positive trend, with a speed of 10.40, acceleration of 0.27, and jerk of –0.31, all of which decreased in the subsequent week to 9.04, –0.81, and –0.03, respectively.

Conclusions

Metrics such as new cases, cumulative cases, deaths, and 7-day moving averages provide a static view of the pandemic but fail to identify where and the speed at which SARS-CoV-2 infects new individuals, the rate of acceleration or deceleration of the pandemic, and weekly comparison of the rate of acceleration of the pandemic indicate impending explosive growth or control of the pandemic. Enhanced surveillance will inform policymakers and leaders in the LAC about COVID-19 outbreaks.

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

BACKGROUND

Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. Although there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, opinions on exactly which policies that entails vary, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place.

METHODS

We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of 4 or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place.

RESULTS

The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work.

A cross-sectional study of opioid involvement in non-poisoning suicide - risks and prevention opportunities

Objective

To examine prevalence, demographic, and incident factors associated with opioid-positivity in Illinois suicide decedents who died by causes other than poisoning.

Method

Cross-sectional study of Illinois’ suicide decedents occurring between January 2015 and December 2017. Data come from the National Violent Death Reporting System. We used Chi-square tests to compare decedent and incident circumstance characteristics by opioid toxicology screen status. Incident narratives were analyzed to obtain physical and mental health histories and circumstances related to fatal injury events.

Results

Of 1007 non-poisoning suicide decedents screened for opioids, 16.4% were opioid-positive. White race, age 75 and over, and widowed or unknown marital status were associated with opioid-positivity. Among opioid-positive decedents, 25% had a history of substance use disorder (SUD), 61% depression, and 19% anxiety. The majority (52%) of opioid-positive decedents died by firearm, a higher percentage than opioid-negative decedents.

Conclusion

The opioid overdose crisis largely has not overlapped with non-poisoning suicide in this study. Overall, our analyses have not identified additional risk factors for suicide among opioid-positive suicide decedents. However, the overlap between opioid-positivity, SUD, and physical and mental health problems found among decedents in our data suggest several suicide prevention opportunities. These include medication assisted treatment for SUD which has been shown to reduce suicide, screening for opioid/benzodiazepine overlap, and limiting access to lethal means during opioid use. Improved death scene investigations for substances and use of the Prescription Drug Monitoring Program to document prescriptions are needed to further understanding of the role of substances in non-poisoning suicide.

Dynamic Panel Data Modeling and Surveillance of COVID-19 in Metropolitan Areas in the United States: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound and differential impacts on metropolitan areas across the United States and around the world. Within the United States, metropolitan areas that were hit earliest with the pandemic and reacted with scientifically based health policy were able to contain the virus by late spring. For other areas that kept businesses open, the first wave in the United States hit in mid-summer. As the weather turns colder, universities resume classes, and people tire of lockdowns, a second wave is ascending in both metropolitan and rural areas. It becomes more obvious that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed at the local level to track recent shifts in the pandemic, rates of increase, and persistence.

Objective

The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand and manage risk in metropolitan areas. Existing surveillance measures coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until, and after, an effective vaccine is developed. Here, we provide values for novel indicators to measure COVID-19 transmission at the metropolitan area level.

Methods

Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 260 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the 25 largest US metropolitan areas as a function of the prior number of cases and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

Results

Minneapolis and Chicago have the greatest average number of daily new positive results per standardized 100,000 population (which we refer to as speed). Extreme behavior in Minneapolis showed an increase in speed from 17 to 30 (67%) in 1 week. The jerk and acceleration calculated for these areas also showed extreme behavior. The dynamic panel data model shows that Minneapolis, Chicago, and Detroit have the largest persistence effects, meaning that new cases pertaining to a specific week are statistically attributable to new cases from the prior week.

Conclusions

Three of the metropolitan areas with historically early and harsh winters have the highest persistence effects out of the top 25 most populous metropolitan areas in the United States at the beginning of their cold weather season. With these persistence effects, and with indoor activities becoming more popular as the weather gets colder, stringent COVID-19 regulations will be more important than ever to flatten the second wave of the pandemic. As colder weather grips more of the nation, southern metropolitan areas may also see large spikes in the number of cases.

Surveillance Metrics of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Central Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the global COVID-19 pandemic, has severely impacted Central Asia; in spring 2020, high numbers of cases and deaths were reported in this region. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is currently breaching the borders of Central Asia. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders; however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions while obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence of the transmission of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to provide enhanced surveillance metrics for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand the risk of explosive growth in each country and which countries are managing the pandemic successfully.

METHODS

Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 60 days of COVID-19-related data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Central Asia region as a function of the prior number of cases, level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

RESULTS

COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the weeks of September 30 to October 6 and October 7-13, 2020, in Central Asia. The region averaged 11,730 new cases per day for the first week and 14,514 for the second week. Infection rates increased across the region from 4.74 per 100,000 persons to 5.66. Russia and Turkey had the highest 7-day moving averages in the region, with 9836 and 1469, respectively, for the week of October 6 and 12,501 and 1603, respectively, for the week of October 13. Russia has the fourth highest speed in the region and continues to have positive acceleration, driving the negative trend for the entire region as the largest country by population. Armenia is experiencing explosive growth of COVID-19; its infection rate of 13.73 for the week of October 6 quickly jumped to 25.19, the highest in the region, the following week. The region overall is experiencing increases in its 7-day moving average of new cases, infection, rate, and speed, with continued positive acceleration and no sign of a reversal in sight.

CONCLUSIONS

The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic requires novel dynamic surveillance metrics in addition to static metrics to effectively analyze the pandemic trajectory and control spread. Policy makers need to know the magnitude of transmission rates, how quickly they are accelerating, and how previous cases are impacting current caseload due to a lag effect. These metrics applied to Central Asia suggest that the region is trending negatively, primarily due to minimal restrictions in Russia.

SARS-CoV-2 Wave Two Surveillance in East Asia and the Pacific: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact on governments, health care systems, economies, and populations around the world. Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. As the second wave reaches East Asia and the Pacific, it becomes more evident that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed to track recent shifts, rates of increase, and persistence associated with the pandemic.

Objective

The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission.

Methods

Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

Results

The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively.

Conclusions

Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.

SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies to reduce the pace of transmission. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), falling oil prices, disparities in wealth and public health infrastructure, and large refugee populations have significantly increased the disease burden of COVID-19. In light of these exacerbating factors, public health surveillance is particularly necessary to help leaders understand and implement effective disease control policies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 persistence and transmission.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence to better understand a country's risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed.

METHODS

Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in MENA as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

RESULTS

The regression Wald statistic was significant (χ²₅=859.5, P<.001). The Sargan test was not significant, failing to reject the validity of overidentifying restrictions (χ²₂₉₄=16, P=.99). Countries with the highest cumulative caseload of the novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, and 303,109 cases, respectively. Many of the smaller countries in MENA have higher infection rates than those countries with the highest caseloads. Oman has 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain has 12.1, Libya has 14, and Lebanon has 14.6 per 100,000 people. In order of largest to smallest number of cumulative deaths since January 2020, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have 30,375, 10,254, 6120, and 5185, respectively. Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman had the highest rates of COVID-19 persistence, which is the number of new infections statistically related to new infections in the prior week. Bahrain had positive speed, acceleration, and jerk, signaling the potential for explosive growth.

CONCLUSIONS

Static and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policies with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.

European shortage of purified protein derivative and its impact on tuberculosis screening practices

SETTING

In June 2014, we became aware that shortages of purified protein derivative (PPD), the test substance used for the tuberculin skin test (TST), had occurred in several European health care institutions providing care for children with tuberculosis (TB).

OBJECTIVE

To establish the extent of the shortage, a survey was performed.

DESIGN

Survey conducted over a 1-month period (June-July 2014) among members of the Paediatric Tuberculosis Network European Trials Group (ptbnet).

RESULTS

Thirty-five physicians from 23 European countries contributed data. The most commonly used PPD product was RT23 (Statens Serum Institut; n = 22, 63%). Twenty-one (60%) participants reported that their institution was experiencing a PPD shortage. The majority (n = 17, 81%) of those reporting a shortage were using RT23. Thirteen (37%) participants reported changes in screening practices resulting from the shortage, including sourcing PPD from alternative manufacturers, restricting remaining supplies to patients at greatest risk or replacing TST by an interferon-gamma release assay.

CONCLUSIONS

The data show that a PPD shortage occurred in 2014, affecting multiple European countries. The shortage resulted in changes in TB screening capabilities and practices, potentially compromising both patient care as well as public health efforts. Appropriate actions to prevent future PPD shortages should be explored urgently by public health agencies and key stakeholders.

Management of paediatric tuberculosis in leading UK centres: unveiling consensus and discrepancies

SETTING

Large specialist paediatric TB clinics in the UK.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate clinical practice and compare with national and international guidelines.

DESIGN

A survey based on an electronic questionnaire on the management of latent tuberculous infection (LTBI) and tuberculosis (TB) disease was conducted in 13 specialist paediatric TB clinics. The consensus and discrepancies were evaluated by descriptive analysis.

RESULTS

Practice was reportedly different when choosing age limits for preventive treatment for TB contacts with initially negative tuberculin skin tests (TSTs), interpretation of TST results and use of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) in the context of LTBI. In relation to management of children with TB disease, practices varied for duration of treatment of osteoarticular TB, monitoring for ethambutol ocular toxicity and use of pyridoxine. There was limited experience with multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB), and over half of the clinics monitored MDR-TB contacts without giving preventive treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The survey showed heterogeneity in several aspects of clinical care for children with TB. Available paediatric TB guidelines differ substantially, explaining the wide variations in management of childhood TB. Prospective paediatric studies are urgently required to inform and standardise clinical practice, especially in the context of evolving drug resistance.

Sleep is in for Summer: Patterns of Sleep and Physical Activity in Urban Minority Girls

OBJECTIVE

Urban minority girls are at risk for summertime weight gain, and may also experience insufficient summertime sleep. Few studies have objectively measured sleep in this population or examined correlates, including physical activity (PA). This study is the first to objectively describe summertime sleep among urban minority girls.

METHODS

Data were collected at a community-based summer program that promoted PA (n = 60 girls, ages 10-14 years), at two time points: before beginning programming (T1; unstructured context) and during the final week of programming (T2; structured context).

RESULTS

At both time points, participants experienced shorter nighttime sleep than the recommended amount for girls their age. African American girls recorded significantly less sleep than Latina girls in the unstructured context. Findings also suggest that sleep schedules have an influential role in youths' abilities to obtain adequate sleep.

CONCLUSION

Overall, summertime sleep is an understudied health behavior that may be important to consider among minority youth.

Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS (PENTA) guidelines for treatment of paediatric HIV-1 infection 2015: optimizing health in preparation for adult life

The 2015 Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS (PENTA) guidelines provide practical recommendations on the management of HIV‐1 infection in children in Europe and are an update to those published in 2009. Aims of treatment have progressed significantly over the last decade, moving far beyond limitation of short‐term morbidity and mortality to optimizing health status for adult life and minimizing the impact of chronic HIV infection on immune system development and health in general. Additionally, there is a greater need for increased awareness and minimization of long‐term drug toxicity. The main updates to the previous guidelines include: an increase in the number of indications for antiretroviral therapy (ART) at all ages (higher CD4 thresholds for consideration of ART initiation and additional clinical indications), revised guidance on first‐ and second‐line ART recommendations, including more recently available drug classes, expanded guidance on management of coinfections (including tuberculosis, hepatitis B and hepatitis C) and additional emphasis on the needs of adolescents as they approach transition to adult services. There is a new section on the current ART ‘pipeline’ of drug development, a comprehensive summary table of currently recommended ART with dosing recommendations. Differences between PENTA and current US and World Health Organization guidelines are highlighted and explained.

Nutrient content of school meals before and after implementation of nutrition recommendations in five school districts across two U.S. counties

OBJECTIVE

To compare changes in nutrient levels of school meals before and after implementation of nutrition interventions at five school districts in two, large U.S. counties. School menu changes were compared against national school meal recommendations.

METHODS

A large urban school district in Los Angeles County (LAC), California and four school districts in suburban Cook County (SCC), Illinois implemented school meal nutrition interventions. Nutrition analyses were conducted for school breakfast and lunch before and after changes were made to the meal programs. Means, % change, and net calories (kilocalories or kcal) offered as a result of the nutrition interventions were calculated.

RESULTS

School districts in both counties made district-wide changes in their school breakfast and lunch menus. Menu changes resulted in a net reduction of calories, sugar, and sodium content offered in the meals. Net fewer calories offered as a result of the nutrition interventions were estimated to be about 64,075kcal per student per year for LAC and 22,887kcal per student per year for SCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Nutrition interventions can have broad reach through changes in menu offerings to school-aged children and adolescents. However, further research is needed to examine how these changes affect student food selection and consumption.

Hispanic Caregiver Perceptions of Water Intake Recommendations for Young Children and Their Current Beverage Feeding Practices

Hispanic children in the United States are at high risk of obesity. Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption (SSB) is a modifiable contributor to obesity. Hispanic children are more likely to drink SSB than non-Hispanic white children. The main goal of the study was to explore caregiver beverage feeding behaviors and evaluate reactions to water intake recommendations for children birth to five years old in a diverse U.S. Hispanic urban community. Findings will be used to develop community- and population-specific intervention messaging for obesity prevention for this population. The study used a qualitative focus group design using constant comparison coding methods. Participants included 35 Hispanic caregivers of children aged 0–5 years living in a low-income, predominantly Hispanic community in Chicago, Illinois. We found young children in this community drink a variety of SSBs and caregivers choose beverages based on cost, availability, health, and behavioral concerns. Participants report altering beverages for a variety of reasons, family member disagreement regarding beverage feeding practices, and older family members’ influence on children’s preferences. Puerto Rican and Mexican American participants differed in the range of beverages provided, concerns regarding water intake, and beverage alteration and feeding practices. Caregivers universally believe the recommended water intake amount of four six-ounce servings daily for children is too high. Findings will inform message development to reduce SSB intake and increase water consumption among young children in this community. Messaging should be ethnic group specific, target all family members, build on current beverage alteration practices, and include nutrition information specific to young children.

Treatment of meningococcal infection

Aggressive early treatment of meningococcal disease can reduce mortality. This relies on prompt recognition and treatment of the complications of septicaemia and meningitis, appropriate ongoing intensive care where necessary, and adequate management of multiple organ failure. Most children with meningococcal disease survive intact, but long term sequelae are increasingly recognised and make follow up essential. New treatments continue to be evaluated, but none has so far proven to be effective in further reducing morbidity or mortality. Simple, timely therapeutic manoeuvres may greatly improve the prospects for survival.