The Validation of the ATRIA and CHA2DS2-Vasc Scores in Predicting Atrial Fibrillation after Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery

Predicting Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Using HARMS2-AF Score

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) remains a common complication after cardiac surgery. The ability to accurately identify patients at risk through previous risk scores is limited. This study aimed to evaluate the new HARMS2-AF risk score to predict POAF after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we included 265 patients undergoing CABG surgery from 2022-2023. Data were obtained from the medical files of the patients and hospital records. Each patient was assigned a HARMS2-AF risk score. A univariate and multivariate regression analyses were done to analyze independent predictors of POAF.

RESULTS

Of 265 patients, 49 had postoperative atrial fibrillation. HARMS2-AF score was significantly higher in patients with POAF. Age, sleep apnea,a left atrial diameter (LAd), and HARMS2-AF score were independently associated with POAF. A HARMS2-AF score ≥ 4.5 predicted POAF with 91% sensitivity and 64% specificity (AUC = 0.787, 95% CI = 0.731-0.842, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The HARMS2-AF score is a strong predictor of atrial fibrillation (AF) development after isolated CABG surgery. It can be used as a novel stratification tool to estimate AF after cardiac surgery.

Atrial Fibrillation After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and Its Relationship with Hospital Complications in São Paulo State

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation is the main complication in the postoperative period of cardiovascular surgery. Its genesis is multifactorial, so its rapid identification to mitigate the associated risks is essential.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the incidence of atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and its relationship with other complications in our setting.

METHODS

This is a multicenter, observational study involving patients undergoing isolated CABG between 2017 and 2019 with data from the Registro Paulista de Cirurgia Cardiovascular (or REPLICCAR II). Variables were prospectively collected in REDCap following the definitions given by version 2.73 of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database. Data were collected with prior authorization from the local ethics committee and analyses performed in R software.

RESULTS

A total of 3,803 patients were included, of these 605 had postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF). In order to adjust the groups, propensity score matching was used. Such analyses resulted in 605 patients in each group (without POAF vs. with POAF). Among patients with POAF, the mean age was 67.56 years, with a prevalence of males (73.6%, 445 patients). Patients belonging to the group with POAF had a mortality rate of 9.26% (P=0.007), longer ventilation time (P<0.001), pneumonia (P<0.001), and sepsis (P<0.001). In multiple analysis, acute renal dysfunction (P=0.032) and longer intensive care unit stay (P<0,001) were associated with the presence of POAF.

CONCLUSION

POAF in CABG is associated with longer intensive care unit and hospital stay, as well as renal dysfunction, pneumonia, and in-hospital mortality.

Risk Scores for Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the performance of risk scores to predict POAF in cardiac surgery patients. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL for studies that developed/evaluated a POAF risk prediction model. Pairs of reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. We pooled area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs), sensitivity and specificity, and adjusted odds ratios from multivariable regression analyses using the generic inverse variance method and random effects models. Forty-three studies (n = 63,847) were included in the quantitative synthesis. Most scores were originally developed for other purposes but evaluated for predicting POAF. Pooled AUC revealed moderate POAF discrimination for the EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54 to 0.65), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.63), EuroSCORE (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68), CHADS2 (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), POAF Score (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.68), HATCH (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.75) and SYNTAX scores (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78). Pooled analyses at specific cutoffs of the CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, HATCH, and POAF scores demonstrated moderate-to-high sensitivity (range 46% to 87%) and low-to-moderate specificity (range 31% to 70%) for POAF prediction. In conclusion, existing clinical risk scores offer at best moderate prediction for POAF after cardiac surgery. Better models are needed to guide POAF risk stratification in cardiac surgery patients.

Atrial Fibrillation Occurring During Acute Hospitalization: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Acute atrial fibrillation is defined as atrial fibrillation detected in the setting of acute care or acute illness; atrial fibrillation may be detected or managed for the first time during acute hospitalization for another condition. Atrial fibrillation after cardiothoracic surgery is a distinct type of acute atrial fibrillation. Acute atrial fibrillation is associated with high risk of long-term atrial fibrillation recurrence, warranting clinical attention during acute hospitalization and over long-term follow-up. A framework of substrates and triggers can be useful for evaluating and managing acute atrial fibrillation. Acute management requires a multipronged approach with interdisciplinary care collaboration, tailoring treatments to the patient's underlying substrate and acute condition. Key components of acute management include identification and treatment of triggers, selection and implementation of rate/rhythm control, and management of anticoagulation. Acute rate or rhythm control strategy should be individualized with consideration of the patient's capacity to tolerate rapid rates or atrioventricular dyssynchrony, and the patient's ability to tolerate the risk of the therapeutic strategy. Given the high risks of atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients with acute atrial fibrillation, clinical follow-up and heart rhythm monitoring are warranted. Long-term management is guided by patient substrate, with implications for intensity of heart rhythm monitoring, anticoagulation, and considerations for rhythm management strategies. Overall management of acute atrial fibrillation addresses substrates and triggers. The 3As of acute management are acute triggers, atrial fibrillation rate/rhythm management, and anticoagulation. The 2As and 2Ms of long-term management include monitoring of heart rhythm and modification of lifestyle and risk factors, in addition to considerations for atrial fibrillation rate/rhythm management and anticoagulation. Several gaps in knowledge related to acute atrial fibrillation exist and warrant future research.

New-Onset Post-Operative Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery - A Retrospective Case-Control Study

INTRODUCTION

New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery.

OBJECTIVE

To explore predictive factors and potential mechanisms of new-onset POAF in isolated off-pump CABG patients.

METHODS

Retrospective observational case-control study of 233 patients undergoing isolated off-pump CABG surgery between August 2018 and July 2020 at the Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, the Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School. Associations between predictor variables and new-onset POAF were identified. The main outcome was new-onset POAF after CABG surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 75 (32.19%) patients developed new-onset POAF after CABG surgery. The new-onset POAF patients had advanced age, higher baseline systolic blood pressure, more preoperative use of diuretic drug, more transfusion of blood products, atrial dilation and postoperative positive inotropic drug treatment. Nineteen variates entered the multivariable logistic regression model with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test score of 7.565 (P=0.477). Postoperative left atrial enlargement, postoperative drainage in the first 24 hours and total length of hospital stay were statistically significant, while postoperative right atrial enlargement (OR and 95% CI, 7.797 [0.200, 304.294], P=0.272) and left atrial enlargement (3.524 [1.141, 10.886], P=0.029) assessed by echocardiography had the largest OR value.

CONCLUSION

Atrial enlargement is strongly associated with new-onset POAF in patients with isolated off-pump CABG, thus it highlights the advantage of echocardiography as a useful tool for predicting new-onset POAF. Careful monitoring and timely intervention should be considered for these patients.

Predictive Values of Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index in New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Following Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

INTRODUCTION

We investigated the relationship between the newly-defined systemic immune-inflammation index and the new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

METHOD

This study included 392 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting. We divided the participants into two groups as those with and without new-onset atrial fibrillation. Prior to coronary artery bypass grafting, we evaluated blood samples, including systemic immune-inflammation index, and other laboratory parameters of the patients. We formulized the systemic immune-inflammation index score as platelet × neutrophil/lymphocyte counts.

RESULTS

The findings revealed that new-onset atrial fibrillation occurred in 80 (20.4%) of 392 patients during follow-ups. Such patients had higher systemic immune-inflammation index, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and C-reactive protein levels than those who did not develop new-onset atrial fibrillation (P<0.001, P<0.001, P=0.010, respectively). In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, systemic immune-inflammation index levels > 712.8 predicted new-onset atrial fibrillation with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 61.2% (area under the curve: 0.781, 95% confidence interval: 0.727-0.835; P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Overall, systemic immune-inflammation index, a novel inflammatory marker, may be used as a decisive marker to predict the development of atrial fibrillation following coronary artery bypass grafting.

Predictive Value of HATCH Scoring and Waist-to-Height Ratio in Atrial Fibrillation Following Coronary Artery Bypass Operations Performed with Cardiopulmonary Bypass

Objectives

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF), an important clinical condition that can occur after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) operations, may bring about cerebrovascular risks, prolong hospital stay and increase treatment costs. In this prospective study, we aimed to investigate the predictive value of HATCH score and waist/height ratio (WHR) values in revealing the development of PoAF after CABG operations.

Methods

Patients who underwent isolated CABG surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass between May 2019 and November 2019 were prospectively included in the study. Preoperative demographic characteristics, laboratory parameters, and operative parameters of the patients were recorded prospectively.

Results

A total of 255 patients were included in the study. Those who did not develop PoAF were included in Group 1 (N = 196, mean age = 58.9 ± 9.4 years), and those who did were included in Group 2 (n = 59, mean age = 61.1 ± 12 years). There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of age, gender, presence of hypertension and hyperlipidemia. Rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and previous percutaneous coronary interventions, waist circumference, waist to height ratio and HATCH score values were significantly higher in Group 2 compared to Group 1 ( p values: 0.019, 0.034, 0.001, <0.001, <0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, WHR (Odds ratio: 1.068, Confidence interval: 1.032–1.105, p < 0.001) and HATCH score (Odds ratio: 2.590, Confidence interval: 1.850–3.625, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of PoAF.

Conclusions

With this current prospective study, we showed that calculating WHR and HATCH score in the preoperative period can help us predict PoAF.