A Machine Learning Method for Identifying Lung Cancer Based on Routine Blood Indices: Qualitative Feasibility Study

Predicting cerebral infarction and transient ischemic attack in healthy individuals and those with dysmetabolism: a machine learning approach combined with routine blood tests

Ischemic cerebral infarction is the most prevalent type of stroke, causing significant disability and death worldwide. Transient ischemic attack (TIA) is a strong predictor of subsequent stroke. Individuals with dysmetabolism, such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes, are at increased risk for cerebral infarction (CI) and TIA. In resource-limited settings, diagnosing CI and TIA can be particularly difficult due to a lack of advanced imaging and specialized expertise. Therefore, we aim to develop a simple, convenient, blood-based approach that could assist clinicians in diagnosing CI and TIA, especially in regions where advanced imaging or stroke-specific expertise is limited. All study subjects were patients admitted to the First Hospital of Xiamen University and healthy check-up populations between January 2018 and September 2023. This study employed five machine learning methods alongside 21 blood routine indicators, 30 blood biochemical indicators, age, and gender to construct predictive models for CI and TIA in both healthy individuals and those with dysmetabolism. The Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC) served as the metric to assess the comprehensive predictive capability of the models. Subsequently, the SHAP package was employed for model interpretation. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) outperforms other models in all predictive models. In the models predicting CI and TIA among healthy, the AUC is 0.9958 (0.9947-0.9969) and 0.9928 (0.9899-0.9951), respectively. Among the nine shared key features of the two models are indicators of glucose metabolism, lipid metabolism, and liver metabolism. In the models for predicting CI and TIA among patients with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, and those with all three metabolic disorders combined, the AUCs ranged from 0.6990 to 0.8591. We found that the indicators K significantly contributed to predict CI and TIA from those with dysmetabolism. Additionally, metabolic-related indicators, such as glucose (GLU) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), are ranked highly among the top ten contributing features. XGBoost performed the best in all models. It can effectively differentiate CI and TIA from healthy and dysmetabolic patients by combining blood routine and blood biochemical indicators. Moreover, it can also differentiate CI from TIA. Although any suspicious findings from this model would still require confirmatory imaging, the simplicity and low cost of blood-based testing may offer a practical adjunct for clinicians-particularly in areas lacking advanced imaging or extensive stroke expertise-and could facilitate earlier diagnostic decision-making.

A multicenter study on developing a prognostic model for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome using machine learning

Background

Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (SFTS) is a disease caused by infection with the Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome virus (SFTSV), a novel Bunyavirus. Accurate prognostic assessment is crucial for developing individualized prevention and treatment strategies. However, machine learning prognostic models for SFTS are rare and need further improvement and clinical validation.

Objective

This study aims to develop and validate an interpretable prognostic model based on machine learning (ML) methods to enhance the understanding of SFTS progression.

Methods

This multicenter retrospective study analyzed patient data from two provinces in China. The derivation cohort included 292 patients treated at The Second Hospital of Nanjing from January 2022 to December 2023, with a 7:3 split for model training and internal validation. The external validation cohort consisted of 104 patients from The First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College during the same period. Twenty-four commonly available clinical features were selected, and the Boruta algorithm identified 12 candidate predictors, ranked by Z-scores, which were progressively incorporated into 10 machine learning models to develop prognostic models. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, recall, and F1 score. The clinical utility of the best-performing model was evaluated through decision curve analysis (DCA) based on net benefit. Robustness was tested with 10-fold cross-validation, and feature importance was explained using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) both globally and locally.

Results

Among the 10 machine learning models, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best overall discriminatory ability. Considering both AUC index and feature simplicity, a final interpretable XGBoost model with 7 key features was constructed. The model showed high predictive accuracy for patient outcomes in both internal (AUC = 0.911, 95% CI: 0.842-0.967) and external validations (AUC = 0.891, 95% CI: 0.786-0.977). A clinical tool based on this model has been developed and implemented using the Streamlit framework.

Conclusion

The interpretable XGBoost-based prognostic model for SFTS shows high predictive accuracy and has been translated into a clinical tool. The model's 7 key features serve as valuable indicators for early prognosis of SFTS, warranting close attention from healthcare professionals in clinical practice.

A Thorough Review of the Clinical Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Lung Cancer

According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), lung cancer is becoming a global epidemic. It is particularly high in the list of the leading causes of death not only in developed countries, but also worldwide; furthermore, it holds the leading place in terms of cancer-related mortality. Nevertheless, many breakthroughs have been made the last two decades regarding its management, with one of the most prominent being the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) in various aspects of disease management. We included 473 papers in this thorough review, most of which have been published during the last 5-10 years, in order to describe these breakthroughs. In screening programs, AI is capable of not only detecting suspicious lung nodules in different imaging modalities-such as chest X-rays, computed tomography (CT), and positron emission tomography (PET) scans-but also discriminating between benign and malignant nodules as well, with success rates comparable to or even better than those of experienced radiologists. Furthermore, AI seems to be able to recognize biomarkers that appear in patients who may develop lung cancer, even years before this event. Moreover, it can also assist pathologists and cytologists in recognizing the type of lung tumor, as well as specific histologic or genetic markers that play a key role in treating the disease. Finally, in the treatment field, AI can guide in the development of personalized options for lung cancer patients, possibly improving their prognosis.

Developing and validating a clinlabomics-based machine-learning model for early detection of retinal detachment in patients with high myopia

BACKGROUND

Retinal detachment (RD) is a vision-threatening disorder of significant severity. Individuals with high myopia (HM) face a 2 to 6 times higher risk of developing RD compared to non-myopes. The timely identification of high myopia-related retinal detachment (HMRD) is crucial for effective treatment and prevention of additional vision impairment. Consequently, our objective was to streamline and validate a machine-learning model based on clinical laboratory omics (clinlabomics) for the early detection of RD in HM patients.

METHODS

We extracted clinlabomics data from the electronic health records for 24,440 HM and 5607 HMRD between 2015 and 2022. Lasso regression analysis assessed fifty-nine variables, excluding collinear variables (variance inflation factor > 10). Four models based on random forest, gradient boosting machine (GBM), generalized linear model, and Deep Learning Model were trained for HMRD diagnosis and employed for internal validation. An external test of the models was done. Three random data sets were further processed to validate the performance of the diagnostic model. The primary outcomes were the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUCPR) to diagnose HMRD.

RESULTS

Nine variables were selected by all models. Given the AUC and AUCPR values across the different sets, the GBM model was chosen as the final diagnostic model. The GBM model had an AUC of 0.8550 (95%CI = 0.8322-0.8967) and an AUCPR of 0.5584 (95%CI = 0.5250-0.5879) in the training set. The AUC and AUCPR in the internal validation were 0.8405 (95%CI = 0.8060-0.8966) and 0.5355 (95%CI = 0.4988-0.5732). During the external test evaluation, it reached an AUC of 0.7579 (95%CI = 0.7340-0.7840) and an AUCPR of 0.5587 (95%CI = 0.5345-0.5880). A similar discriminative capacity was observed in the three random data sets. The GBM model was well-calibrated across all the sets. The GBM-RD model was implemented into a web application that provides risk prediction for HM individuals.

CONCLUSION

GBM algorithms based on nine features successfully predicted the diagnosis of RD in patients with HM, which will help ophthalmologists to establish a preliminary diagnosis and to improve diagnostic accuracy in the clinic.

Optimizing lung cancer classification through hyperparameter tuning

Artificial intelligence is steadily permeating various sectors, including healthcare. This research specifically addresses lung cancer, the world's deadliest disease with the highest mortality rate. Two primary factors contribute to its onset: genetic predisposition and environmental factors, such as smoking and exposure to pollutants. Recognizing the need for more effective diagnosis techniques, our study embarked on devising a machine learning strategy tailored to boost precision in lung cancer detection. Our aim was to devise a diagnostic method that is both less invasive and cost-effective. To this end, we proposed four methods, benchmarking them against prevalent techniques using a universally recognized dataset from Kaggle. Among our methods, one emerged as particularly promising, outperforming the competition in accuracy, precision and sensitivity. This method utilized hyperparameter tuning, focusing on the Gamma and C parameters, which were set at a value of 10. These parameters influence kernel width and regularization strength, respectively. As a result, we achieved an accuracy of 99.16%, a precision of 98% and a sensitivity rate of 100%. In conclusion, our enhanced prediction mechanism has proven to surpass traditional and contemporary strategies in lung cancer detection.

Machine learning models based on routinely sampled blood tests can predict the presence of malignancy amongst patients with suspected musculoskeletal malignancy

AIMS

This study explores the possibility of using routinely taken blood tests in the diagnosis and triage of patients with suspected musculoskeletal malignancy.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed on results of patients who had presented for assessment to a regional musculoskeletal tumour unit. Blood results of patients with a histologically confirmed diagnosis between 2010 and 2020 were retrieved. 33 distinct blood tests were available for model forming. Results were standardised by calculating z-scores. Data were split into a training set (70%) and a test set (30%). The training set was balanced by resampling underrepresented classes. The random forest algorithm performed best and was selected for model forming. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to find the optimum threshold. Models were calibrated and performance metrics evaluated with confusion tables.

RESULTS

2371 patients formed the study population. 1080 had a malignant diagnosis in one of three categories: sarcoma, metastasis, or haematological malignancy. 1291 had a benign condition. Metastasis could be predicted with an accuracy of 79% (AUC 87%, sensitivity 79%, specificity 80% NPV 91%). Haematological malignancy accuracy 79% (AUC 81%, sensitivity 77%, specificity 79%, NPV 97%). Sarcoma accuracy 64% (AUC 73%, sensitivity 76%, specificity 61%, NPV 88%) and all malignancy accuracy 74% (AUC 80%, sensitivity 72%, specificity 75%, NPV 76%).

CONCLUSION

Routinely performed blood tests can be useful in triage of musculoskeletal tumours and can be used to predict presence of musculoskeletal malignancy.

Two-Stage Deep-Learning Classifier for Diagnostics of Lung Cancer Using Metabolites

We developed a machine-learning system for the selective diagnostics of adenocarcinoma (AD), squamous cell carcinoma (SQ), and small-cell carcinoma lung (SC) cancers based on their metabolomic profiles. The system is organized as two-stage binary classifiers. The best accuracy for classification is 92%. We used the biomarkers sets that contain mostly metabolites related to cancer development. Compared to traditional methods, which exclude hierarchical classification, our method splits a challenging multiclass task into smaller tasks. This allows a two-stage classifier, which is more accurate in the scenario of lung cancer classification. Compared to traditional methods, such a "divide and conquer strategy" gives much more accurate and explainable results. Such methods, including our algorithm, allow for the systematic tracking of each computational step.

Interpretable prediction of cardiopulmonary complications after non-small cell lung cancer surgery based on machine learning and SHapley additive exPlanations

Introduction

Lung cancer is a prevalent malignancy globally, with approximately 20% of patients developing cardiopulmonary complications after lobectomy. In order to prevent complications, an accurate and personalized method based on machine learning (ML) is required.

Methods

During the period of 2017-2021, a retrospective analysis was conducted on the medical records of patients who had undergone lobectomy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We performed logical regression, decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), gradient boost DT, and eXtreme gradient boosting analyses to establish an ML model. The ten-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate the performance of multiple ML models based on various evaluation metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating (AUC). Additionally, we also calculated the Kappa value of these model. Each model used grid search to optimize hyper-parameters and then used the interpretability method to provide explanations for the model's Decisions.

Results

The study included 718 eligible patients, among whom the incidence of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications was 20.89%. The RF model showed the best comprehensive performance among all models, and its ten-fold cross-validation accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and AUC were (OR and 95% confidence interval [CI]) 0.786 (0.738-0.834), 0.803 (0.735-0.872), 0.738 (0.678-0.797), 0.766 (0.714-0.818), 0.856 (0.815-0.898), respectively. The kappa value of the RF model was 0.696 (0.617-0.768). The SHAP method showed that gender, age, and intraoperative blood loss were closely associated with postoperative cardiopulmonary complications.

Conclusion

The application of ML methods for predicting postoperative cardiopulmonary complications based on clinical data of patients with NSCLC showed a good performance. The results indicate that ML combined with the SHAP individualized interpretation method has practical clinical value.

Prediction of risk factors for scrub typhus from 2006 to 2019 based on random forest model in Guangzhou, China

OBJECTIVES

Scrub typhus is an increasingly serious public health problem, which is becoming the most common vector-borne disease in Guangzhou. This study aimed to analyse the correlation between scrub typhus incidence and potential factors and rank the importance of influential factors.

METHODS

We collected monthly scrub typhus cases, meteorological variables, rodent density (RD), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and land use type in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2019. Correlation analysis and a random forest model were used to identify the risk factors for scrub typhus and predict the importance rank of influencing factors related to scrub typhus incidence.

RESULTS

The epidemiological results of the scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou between 2006 and 2019 showed that the incidence rate was on the rise. The results of correlation analysis revealed that a positive relationship between scrub typhus incidence and meteorological factors of mean temperature (T_mean ), accumulative rainfall (RF), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours (SH), and NDVI, RD, population density, and green land coverage area (all p < 0.001). Additionally, we tested the relationship between the incidence of scrub typhus and the lagging meteorological factors through cross-correlation function, and found that incidence was positively correlated with 1-month lag T_mean , 2-month lag RF, 2-month lag RH, and 6-month lag SH (all p < 0.001). Based on the random forest model, we found that the T_mean was the most important predictor among the influential factors, followed by NDVI.

CONCLUSIONS

Meteorological factors, NDVI, RD, and land use type jointly affect the incidence of scrub typhus in Guangzhou. Our results provide a better understanding of the influential factors correlated with scrub typus, which can improve our capacity for biological monitoring and help public health authorities to formulate disease control strategies.

Development and validation of a routine blood parameters-based model for screening the occurrence of retinal detachment in high myopia in the context of PPPM

Background/aims

Timely detection and treatment of retinal detachment (RD) could effectively save vision and reduce the risk of progressing visual field defects. High myopia (HM) is known to be associated with an increased risk of RD. Evidently, it should be clearly discriminated the individuals with high or low risk of RD in patients with HM. By using multi-parametric analysis, risk assessment, and other techniques, it is crucial to create cutting-edge screening programs that may be utilized to improve population eye health and develop person-specific, cost-effective preventative, and targeted therapeutic measures. Therefore, we propose a novel, routine blood parameters-based prediction model as a screening program to help distinguish who should offer detailed ophthalmic examinations for RD diagnosis, prevent visual field defect progression, and provide personalized, serial monitoring in the context of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM/3 PM).

Methods

This population-based study included 20,870 subjects (HM = 19,284, HMRD = 1586) who underwent detailed routine blood tests and ophthalmic evaluations. HMRD cases and HM controls were matched using a nested case-control design. Then, the HMRD cases and HM controls were randomly assigned to the discovery cohort, validation cohort 1, and validation cohort 2 maintaining a 6:2:2 ratio, and other subjects were assigned to the HM validation cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to select feature indexes. Feature indexes were integrated into seven algorithm models, and an optimal model was selected based on the highest area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy.

Results

Six feature indexes were selected: lymphocyte, basophil, mean platelet volume, platelet distribution width, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio. Among the algorithm models, the algorithm of conditional probability (ACP) showed the best performance achieving an AUC of 0.79, a diagnostic accuracy of 0.72, a sensitivity of 0.71, and a specificity of 0.74 in the discovery cohort. A good performance of the ACP model was also observed in the validation cohort 1 (AUC = 0.81, accuracy = 0.72, sensitivity = 0.71, specificity = 0.73) and validation cohort 2 (AUC = 0.77, accuracy = 0.71, sensitivity = 0.70, specificity = 0.72). In addition, ACP model calibration was found to be good across three cohorts. In the HM validation cohort, the ACP model achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 0.81 for negative classification.

Conclusion

We have developed a routine blood parameters-based model with an ACP algorithm that could potentially be applied in the clinic with a PPPM approach for serial monitoring and predicting the occurrence of RD in HM and can facilitate the prevention of HM progression to RD. According to the current study, routine blood measures are essential in patient risk classification, predictive diagnosis, and targeted therapy. Therefore, for high-risk RD persons, novel screening programs and prompt treatment plans are essential to enhance individual outcomes and healthcare offered to the community with HM.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-023-00319-3.

Clinlabomics: leveraging clinical laboratory data by data mining strategies

The recent global focus on big data in medicine has been associated with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in diagnosis and decision-making following recent advances in computer technology. Up to now, AI has been applied to various aspects of medicine, including disease diagnosis, surveillance, treatment, predicting future risk, targeted interventions and understanding of the disease. There have been plenty of successful examples in medicine of using big data, such as radiology and pathology, ophthalmology cardiology and surgery. Combining medicine and AI has become a powerful tool to change health care, and even to change the nature of disease screening in clinical diagnosis. As all we know, clinical laboratories produce large amounts of testing data every day and the clinical laboratory data combined with AI may establish a new diagnosis and treatment has attracted wide attention. At present, a new concept of radiomics has been created for imaging data combined with AI, but a new definition of clinical laboratory data combined with AI has lacked so that many studies in this field cannot be accurately classified. Therefore, we propose a new concept of clinical laboratory omics (Clinlabomics) by combining clinical laboratory medicine and AI. Clinlabomics can use high-throughput methods to extract large amounts of feature data from blood, body fluids, secretions, excreta, and cast clinical laboratory test data. Then using the data statistics, machine learning, and other methods to read more undiscovered information. In this review, we have summarized the application of clinical laboratory data combined with AI in medical fields. Undeniable, the application of Clinlabomics is a method that can assist many fields of medicine but still requires further validation in a multi-center environment and laboratory.

A Self-Activated CNN Approach for Multi-Class Chest-Related COVID-19 Detection

Chest diseases can be dangerous and deadly. They include many chest infections such as pneumonia, asthma, edema, and, lately, COVID-19. COVID-19 has many similar symptoms compared to pneumonia, such as breathing hardness and chest burden. However, it is a challenging task to differentiate COVID-19 from other chest diseases. Several related studies proposed a computer-aided COVID-19 detection system for the single-class COVID-19 detection, which may be misleading due to similar symptoms of other chest diseases. This paper proposes a framework for the detection of 15 types of chest diseases, including the COVID-19 disease, via a chest X-ray modality. Two-way classification is performed in proposed Framework. First, a deep learning-based convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture with a soft-max classifier is proposed. Second, transfer learning is applied using fully-connected layer of proposed CNN that extracted deep features. The deep features are fed to the classical Machine Learning (ML) classification methods. However, the proposed framework improves the accuracy for COVID-19 detection and increases the predictability rates for other chest diseases. The experimental results show that the proposed framework, when compared to other state-of-the-art models for diagnosing COVID-19 and other chest diseases, is more robust, and the results are promising.

Machine learning-assisted decision-support models to better predict patients with calculous pyonephrosis

Background

To develop a machine learning (ML)-assisted model capable of accurately identifying patients with calculous pyonephrosis before making treatment decisions by integrating multiple clinical characteristics.

Methods

We retrospectively collected data from patients with obstructed hydronephrosis who underwent retrograde ureteral stent insertion, percutaneous nephrostomy (PCN), or percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). The study cohort was divided into training and testing datasets in a 70:30 ratio for further analysis. We developed 5 ML-assisted models from 22 clinical features using logistic regression (LR), LR optimized by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regularization (Lasso-LR), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and random forest (RF). The area under the curve (AUC) was applied to determine the model with the highest discrimination. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to investigate the clinical net benefit associated with using the predictive models.

Results

A total of 322 patients were included, with 225 patients in the training dataset, and 97 patients in the testing dataset. The XGBoost model showed good discrimination with the AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.981, 0.991, 0.962, 1.000, 1.000, and 0.989, respectively, followed by SVM [AUC =0.985, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.970–1.000], Lasso-LR (AUC =0.977, 95% CI: 0.958–0.996), LR (AUC =0.936, 95% CI: 0.905–0.968), and RF (AUC =0.920, 95% CI: 0.870–0.970). Validation of the model showed that SVM yielded the highest AUC (0.977, 95% CI: 0.952–1.000), followed by Lasso-LR (AUC =0.959, 95% CI: 0.921–0.997), XGBoost (AUC =0.958, 95% CI: 0.902–1.000), LR (AUC =0.932, 95% CI: 0.878–0.987), and RF (AUC =0.868, 95% CI: 0.779–0.958) in the testing dataset.

Conclusions

Our ML-based models had good discrimination in predicting patients with obstructed hydronephrosis at high risk of harboring pyonephrosis, and the use of these models may be greatly beneficial to urologists in treatment planning, patient selection, and decision-making.

Liq_ccRCC: Identification of Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma Based on the Integration of Clinical Liquid Indices

Currently, preoperative diagnosis and differentiation of renal clear cell carcinoma and other subtypes remain a serious challenge for doctors. The liquid biopsy technique and artificial intelligence have inspired the pursuit of distinguishing clear cell renal cell carcinoma using clinically available test data. In this work, a method called liq_ccRCC based on the integration of clinical blood and urine indices through machine learning approaches was successfully designed to achieve this goal. Clinically available biochemical blood data and urine indices were collected from 306 patients with renal cell carcinoma. Finally, the integration of 18 top-ranked clinical liquid indices (13 blood samples and 5 urine samples) was proven to be able to distinguish renal clear cell carcinoma from other subtypes of renal carcinoma by cross-valuation with an AUC of 0.9372. The successful introduction of this identification method suggests that subtype differentiation of renal cell carcinoma can be accomplished based on clinical liquid test data, which is noninvasive and easy to perform. It has huge potential to be developed as a promising innovation strategy for preoperative subtype differentiation of renal cell carcinoma with the advantages of convenience and real-time testing. liq_ccRCC is available online for the free test of readers at http://lishuyan.lzu.edu.cn/liq_ccRCC.

ABCModeller: an automatic data mining tool based on a consistent voting method with a user-friendly graphical interface

In order to extract useful information from a huge amount of biological data nowadays, simple and convenient tools are urgently needed for data analysis and modeling. In this paper, an automatic data mining tool, termed as ABCModeller (Automatic Binary Classification Modeller), with a user-friendly graphical interface was developed here, which includes automated functions as data preprocessing, significant feature extraction, classification modeling, model evaluation and prediction. In order to enhance the generalization ability of the final model, a consistent voting method was built here in this tool with the utilization of three popular machine-learning algorithms, as artificial neural network, support vector machine and random forest. Besides, Fibonacci search and orthogonal experimental design methods were also employed here to automatically select significant features in the data space and optimal hyperparameters of the three algorithms to achieve the best model. The reliability of this tool has been verified through multiple benchmark data sets. In addition, with the advantage of a user-friendly graphical interface of this tool, users without any programming skills can easily obtain reliable models directly from original data, which can reduce the complexity of modeling and data mining, and contribute to the development of related research including but not limited to biology. The excitable file of this tool can be downloaded from http://lishuyan.lzu.edu.cn/ABCModeller.rar.

Evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of a ctDNA methylation classifier for incidental lung nodules: protocol for a prospective, observational, and multicenter clinical trial of 10,560 cases

Background

Lung nodules are a diagnostic challenge. Current clinical management of lung nodule patients is inefficient and therefore causes patient misclassification, which increases healthcare expenses. However, a precise and robust lung nodule classifier to minimize discomfort for patients and healthcare costs is still lacking. The aim of the present protocol is to evaluate the effectiveness of using a liquid biopsy classifier to diagnose nodules compared to physician estimates and whether the classifier can reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies in benign cases.

Methods

A prospective cohort of 10,560 patients enrolled at 23 clinical centers in China with non-calcified pulmonary nodules, ranging from 0.5 to 3 cm in diameter, indicated by LDCT or CT will be included. After signed consent forms, the participants’ pulmonary nodules will be assessed using three evaluation tools: (I) physician cancer probability estimates (II) validated lung nodule risk models, including Mayo Clinic and Veteran’s Affairs models (III) ctDNA methylation classifier previously established. Each patient will undergo LDCT/CT follow-ups for 2 to 3 years and their information and one blood sample will be collected at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. The primary study outcomes will be the diagnostic accuracy of the methylation classifier in the cohort. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) will be used to compare the diagnostic value of each testing tool in differentiating benign and malignant pulmonary nodules.

Discussion

We are conducting an observational study to explore the accuracy of using a ctDNA methylation classifier for incidental lung nodules diagnosis

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03651986.

Diagnostic significance of C-reactive protein and hematological parameters in acute toxoplasmosis

Abstract

Toxoplasmosis is a zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii, which can be acquired by oral contact and may cause severe health problems especially for pregnant (congenital toxoplasmosis) and immunocompromised patients. This study aimed to verify the diagnostic significance of hematological parameters and C-reactive protein (CRP) for toxoplasmosis acute detection. A case-control study was carried out between December 2017 and May 2018, in samples of convenience independent of age and sex. The case group was formed by 25 patients with positive anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgG/IgM antibody and the control group was formed by 21 patients with non-positive anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgG/IgM antibody. The results of the hematological parameters and CRP were analyzed in these patients. The patients with Toxoplasma gondii IgM antibody reagent showed higher lymphocytes counting and lower neutrophils counting than the control group. C-reactive protein levels were not different between the groups case and control. ROC curve analysis highlighted that the cut-off value of > 32.00% for lymphocytes and < 57.50% for neutrophils were able to produce specificity higher than 90% for IgM antibody detection. The Naïve Bayes classifier was considered suitable (AUC ≈ 0.700) to separate both groups according to their white cell counting. Changes in lymphocytes and neutrophils may be useful parameters for toxoplasmosis identification and may be used as a tool in the complementary diagnosis of toxoplasmosis.

Graphic abstract

Predictive Modeling for Frailty Conditions in Elderly People: Machine Learning Approaches

Background

Frailty is one of the most critical age-related conditions in older adults. It is often recognized as a syndrome of physiological decline in late life, characterized by a marked vulnerability to adverse health outcomes. A clear operational definition of frailty, however, has not been agreed so far. There is a wide range of studies on the detection of frailty and their association with mortality. Several of these studies have focused on the possible risk factors associated with frailty in the elderly population while predicting who will be at increased risk of frailty is still overlooked in clinical settings.

Objective

The objective of our study was to develop predictive models for frailty conditions in older people using different machine learning methods based on a database of clinical characteristics and socioeconomic factors.

Methods

An administrative health database containing 1,095,612 elderly people aged 65 or older with 58 input variables and 6 output variables was used. We first identify and define six problems/outputs as surrogates of frailty. We then resolve the imbalanced nature of the data through resampling process and a comparative study between the different machine learning (ML) algorithms – Artificial neural network (ANN), Genetic programming (GP), Support vector machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Logistic regression (LR) and Decision tree (DT) – was carried out. The performance of each model was evaluated using a separate unseen dataset.

Results

Predicting mortality outcome has shown higher performance with ANN (TPR 0.81, TNR 0.76, accuracy 0.78, F1-score 0.79) and SVM (TPR 0.77, TNR 0.80, accuracy 0.79, F1-score 0.78) than predicting the other outcomes. On average, over the six problems, the DT classifier has shown the lowest accuracy, while other models (GP, LR, RF, ANN, and SVM) performed better. All models have shown lower accuracy in predicting an event of an emergency admission with red code than predicting fracture and disability. In predicting urgent hospitalization, only SVM achieved better performance (TPR 0.75, TNR 0.77, accuracy 0.73, F1-score 0.76) with the 10-fold cross validation compared with other models in all evaluation metrics.

Conclusions

We developed machine learning models for predicting frailty conditions (mortality, urgent hospitalization, disability, fracture, and emergency admission). The results show that the prediction performance of machine learning models significantly varies from problem to problem in terms of different evaluation metrics. Through further improvement, the model that performs better can be used as a base for developing decision-support tools to improve early identification and prediction of frail older adults.