United States Influenza Search Patterns Since the Emergence of COVID-19: Infodemiology Study

Surveillance System for Infectious Disease Prevention and Management: Direction of Korea's Infectious Disease Surveillance System

Emerging infectious diseases have risen sharply due to population growth, urbanization, travel, trade, and environmental changes, with outbreaks like severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and coronavirus disease 2019 highlighting the global need for effective surveillance systems. Various infectious disease surveillance systems are applied depending on the surveillance objectives, target populations, and geographical scope. While Korea has a robust surveillance system, challenges remain in integrating data, enhancing coordination, and improving response efficiency. This article reviews the types and roles of infectious disease surveillance systems through a literature review and proposes strategies for improving Korea's surveillance system by comparing it with those of other countries, including the World Health Organization (WHO). To strengthen Korea's surveillance framework, a comprehensive strategy should be implemented to interconnect multiple surveillance mechanisms and enhance real-time data sharing. A centralized data platform must integrate these systems, leveraging artificial intelligence and big data analytics for faster outbreak analysis. International collaboration through data-sharing networks with the WHO, European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, and U.S Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is essential, along with standardized reporting formats to improve interoperability.

Google trends in infodemiology: Methodological steps to avoid irreproducible results and invalid conclusions

BACKGROUND

Google Trends is a widely used tool for infodemiological surveys. However, irregularities in the random sampling and aggregation algorithms compromise the reliability of the relative search volume (RSV) and the regional online interest (ROI).

OBJECTIVE

The study aims to unmask methodological criticalities commonly ignored in carrying out infodemiological surveys via Google Trends. A guide to avoiding these shortcomings is also provided.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The Google Topic "Coronavirus disease 2019" has been investigated using different timelapses, categories, and IP addresses. The same samples were manually collected multiple times to evaluate the RSV and ROI stability. Stability was estimated through indicators of variability (e.g., coefficient of percentage variation "CV%" and its 4-surprisal interval "4-I"). The content aggregation capacity of the algorithms relating to topics and categories was evaluated through the quantitative analysis of RSV and ROI and the qualitative examination of the related queries.

RESULTS

The stability of Google Trends' RSV and ROI is not linked exclusively to the dataset dimension or the IP address. Subregional datasets can be highly unstable (e.g., CV% = 10, 4-I: [8,13]). Google Trends categories and topics can exclude relevant queries or include unnecessary queries. The statistical scenario is consistent with the following hypotheses: i) datasets containing too few queries are highly unstable, ii) the "interest over time" data format is generally reliable for evaluating trends and correlations, iii) Google Trends improvements have altered the RSV historical trends.

CONCLUSIONS

Google Trends can be an effective and efficient infodemiological tool as long as the reliability of web search indexes is appropriately analyzed and weighted for the scientific goal. The methodological steps discussed in this study are critical to drawing valid and relevant scientific conclusions.

Analysing the impact of comorbid conditions and media coverage on online symptom search data: a novel AI-based approach for COVID-19 tracking

BACKGROUND

Web search data have proven to bea valuable early indicator of COVID-19 outbreaks. However, the influence of co-morbid conditions with similar symptoms and the effect of media coverage on symptom-related searches are often overlooked, leading to potential inaccuracies in COVID-19 simulations.

METHOD

This study introduces a machine learning-based approach to estimate the magnitude of the impact of media coverage and comorbid conditions with similar symptoms on online symptom searches, based on two scenarios with quantile levels 10-90 and 25-75. An incremental batch learning RNN-LSTM model was then developed for the COVID-19 simulation in Australia and New Zealand, allowing the model to dynamically simulate different infection rates and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

RESULT

The COVID-19 infected person-directed symptom searches were found to account for only a small proportion of the total search volume (on average 33.68% in Australia vs. 36.89% in New Zealand) compared to searches influenced by media coverage and comorbid conditions (on average 44.88% in Australia vs. 50.94% in New Zealand). The proposed method, which incorporates estimated symptom component ratios into the RNN-LSTM embedding model, significantly improved COVID-19 simulation performance.

CONCLUSION

Media coverage and comorbid conditions with similar symptoms dominate the total number of online symptom searches, suggesting that direct use of online symptom search data in COVID-19 simulations may overestimate COVID-19 infections. Our approach provides new insights into the accurate estimation of COVID-19 infections using online symptom searches, thereby assisting governments in developing complementary methods for public health surveillance.

Digital epidemiology and infodemiology of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Italy. Disease trend assessment via Google and Wikipedia

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The study aimed to evaluate the epidemiological trend of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Italy using data on Internet search volume.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study design was used. Data on Internet searches were obtained from Google Trends (GT) and Wikipedia. We used the following Italian search term: "Malattia mano-piede-bocca" (Hand-foot-mouth disease, in English). A monthly time-frame was extracted, partly overlapping, from July 2015 to December 2022. GT and Wikipedia were overlapped to perform a linear regression and correlation analyses. Statistical analyses were performed using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rho). A linear regression analysis was performed considering Wikipedia and GT.

RESULTS

Search peaks for both Wikipedia and GT occurred in the months November-December during the autumn-winter season and in June during the spring-summer season, except for the period from June 2020 to June 2021, probably due to the restrictions of the COVID19 pandemic. A temporal correlation was observed between GT and Wikipedia search trends.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study in Italy that attempts to clarify the epidemiology of HFMD. Google search and Wikipedia can be valuable for public health surveillance; however, to date, digital epidemiology cannot replace the traditional surveillance system.

The Role of Heterogenous Real-world Data for Dengue Surveillance in Martinique: Observational Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Traditionally, dengue prevention and control rely on vector control programs and reporting of symptomatic cases to a central health agency. However, case reporting is often delayed, and the true burden of dengue disease is often underestimated. Moreover, some countries do not have routine control measures for vector control. Therefore, researchers are constantly assessing novel data sources to improve traditional surveillance systems. These studies are mostly carried out in big territories and rarely in smaller endemic regions, such as Martinique and the Lesser Antilles.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine whether heterogeneous real-world data sources could help reduce reporting delays and improve dengue monitoring in Martinique island, a small endemic region.

METHODS

Heterogenous data sources (hospitalization data, entomological data, and Google Trends) and dengue surveillance reports for the last 14 years (January 2007 to February 2021) were analyzed to identify associations with dengue outbreaks and their time lags.

RESULTS

The dengue hospitalization rate was the variable most strongly correlated with the increase in dengue positivity rate by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.70) with a time lag of -3 weeks. Weekly entomological interventions were also correlated with the increase in dengue positivity rate by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.59) with a time lag of -2 weeks. The most correlated query from Google Trends was the "Dengue" topic restricted to the Martinique region (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.637) with a time lag of -3 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Real-word data are valuable data sources for dengue surveillance in smaller territories. Many of these sources precede the increase in dengue cases by several weeks, and therefore can help to improve the ability of traditional surveillance systems to provide an early response in dengue outbreaks. All these sources should be better integrated to improve the early response to dengue outbreaks and vector-borne diseases in smaller endemic territories.

Infodemiology of RSV in Italy (2017-2022): An Alternative Option for the Surveillance of Incident Cases in Pediatric Age?

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether or not online queries for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) retrieved by means of Google Trends™ and the Italian Wikipedia analysis program mirror the occurrence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI), as reported by the Italian Influenza Surveillance network (InfluNet). Estimated rates for ILI in the general population and in the age groups 0−4 years and 5−14 years were obtained for the influenza seasons 2017−2018 to 2020−2021. Similarly, a weekly fraction of online searches was retrieved for a series of terms associated with Respiratory Syncytial Virus. Next, trends for daily visualization of Italian Wikipedia Pages for Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Pneumonia, Bronchiolitis, Influenza, and Respiratory Failure were similarly retrieved. The correlation of all search terms with ILI was analyzed by means of Spearman’s rank correlation analysis. Among search terms associated with the clinical diagnosis of Respiratory Syncytial Virus infections, the occurrence of ILI was highly correlated only with Bronchiolitis in the age group 0−4 years (β 0.210, p = 0.028), while more generic search terms, such as Bronchitis, fever, influenza, and Pneumonia, were identified as effective predictors of ILI, in general and by age groups. In a regression analysis modeled with ILIs as the outcome variable, daily visualizations for the Wikipedia pages on Bronchiolitis were identified as negative predictors for ILI in general (β = −0.152, p = 0.032), ILI in age group 0−4 years (β = −0.264, p = 0.001) and 5−14 years (β = −0.202, p = 0.006), while Influenza was characterized as a positive effector for ILIs in the age group 5−14 years (β = 0.245, p = 0.001). Interestingly, not only were the search terms extensively correlated with one another, but all of them were also characterized by autocorrelation through a Durbin-Watson test (all estimates DW < 2.0) In summary, our study identified a complicated pattern of data visualization as no clear association between rates of ILI in pediatric age group 0−4 and 5 to 14 years was actually found. Finally, our data stress that the infodemiology option may be quite problematic for assessing the time trend of RSV infections in Italy until more appropriate reporting will be made available, by sharing estimates of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections, and through a more accurate characterization of younger age groups.

Environmental factors and risk of gout

Gout is a chronic disease with inflammatory arthritis caused by monosodium urate (MSU) crystals deposition, an elevated serum urate level (hyperuricaemia) is the critical factor leading to MSU crystals deposition and promoting the progression of gout. The onset and development of gout is generally the result of multiple factors, such as diet, heredity and environmental factors. Although genetics and diet are thought to play as major factors, a growing body of research evidence has highlighted that environmental factors also play a significant role in the onset and exacerbation of gout. Recent studies have shown that air pollutants such as particulate matter, sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and carbon monoxide (CO) may increase the risk of hospitalizations for gout, and that the changes in temperature and humidity may affect uric acid (UA) levels. There is also seasonal trend in gout. It has been demonstrated that environmental factors may induce or accelerate the production and release of pro-inflammatory mediators, causing an unbalance oxidative stress and systemic inflammation, and then participating in the overall process or a certain link of gout. Moreover, several environmental factors have shown the ability to induce the production urate and regulate the innate immune pathways, involving in the pathogenesis of gout. Nevertheless, the role of environmental factors in the etiology of gout remains unclear. In this review, we summarized the recent literatures and aimed to discuss the relationship between environmental factors (such as microclimate, season, ambient/indoor air pollution and extreme weather) and gout. We further discussed the inflammatory mechanisms of environmental factors and gout and the comprehensive effects of environmental factors on gout. We also made a prospect of the management and treatment of gout, with special consideration to environmental factors associated with gout.

Linguistic Pattern-Infused Dual-Channel Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory With Attention for Dengue Case Summary Generation From the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases-Mail Database: Algorithm Development Study

BACKGROUND

Globalization and environmental changes have intensified the emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases worldwide, such as outbreaks of dengue fever in Southeast Asia. Collaboration on region-wide infectious disease surveillance systems is therefore critical but difficult to achieve because of the different transparency levels of health information systems in different countries. Although the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED)-mail is the most comprehensive international expert-curated platform providing rich disease outbreak information on humans, animals, and plants, the unstructured text content of the reports makes analysis for further application difficult.

OBJECTIVE

To make monitoring the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia more efficient, this study aims to develop an automatic summary of the alert articles from ProMED-mail, a huge textual data source. In this paper, we proposed a text summarization method that uses natural language processing technology to automatically extract important sentences from alert articles in ProMED-mail emails to generate summaries. Using our method, we can quickly capture crucial information to help make important decisions regarding epidemic surveillance.

METHODS

Our data, which span a period from 1994 to 2019, come from the ProMED-mail website. We analyzed the collected data to establish a unique Taiwan dengue corpus that was validated with professionals' annotations to achieve almost perfect agreement (Cohen κ=90%). To generate a ProMED-mail summary, we developed a dual-channel bidirectional long short-term memory with attention mechanism with infused latent syntactic features to identify key sentences from the alerting article.

RESULTS

Our method is superior to many well-known machine learning and neural network approaches in identifying important sentences, achieving a macroaverage F1 score of 93%. Moreover, it can successfully extract the relevant correct information on dengue fever from a ProMED-mail alerting article, which can help researchers or general users to quickly understand the essence of the alerting article at first glance. In addition to verifying the model, we also recruited 3 professional experts and 2 students from related fields to participate in a satisfaction survey on the generated summaries, and the results show that 84% (63/75) of the summaries received high satisfaction ratings.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed approach successfully fuses latent syntactic features into a deep neural network to analyze the syntactic, semantic, and contextual information in the text. It then exploits the derived information to identify crucial sentences in the ProMED-mail alerting article. The experiment results show that the proposed method is not only effective but also outperforms the compared methods. Our approach also demonstrates the potential for case summary generation from ProMED-mail alerting articles. In terms of practical application, when a new alerting article arrives, our method can quickly identify the relevant case information, which is the most critical part, to use as a reference or for further analysis.