Modeling Recruitment of Birth Cohorts to the Breeding Population: A Hidden Markov Model Approach

Long-term capture-recapture studies provide an opportunity to investigate the population dynamics of long-lived species through individual maturation and adulthood and/or time. We consider capture-recapture data collected on cohorts of female gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) born during the 1990s and later observed breeding on the Isle of May, Firth of Forth, Scotland. Female gray seals can live for 30+ years but display individual variability in their maturation rates and so recruit into the breeding population across a range of ages. Understanding the partially hidden process by which individuals transition from immature to breeding members, and in particular the identification of any changes to this process through time, are important for understanding the factors affecting the population dynamics of this species. Age-structured capture-recapture models can explicitly relate recruitment, and other demographic parameters of interest, to the age of individuals and/or time. To account for the monitoring of the seals from several birth cohorts we consider an age-structured model that incorporates a specific cohort-structure. Within this model we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the age of recruitment to the breeding population at this colony. Understanding this recruitment process, and identifying any changes or trends in this process, will offer insight into individual year effects and give a more realistic recruitment profile for the current UK gray seal population model. The use of the hidden Markov model provides an intuitive framework following the evolution of the true underlying states of the individuals. The model breaks down the different processes of the system: recruitment into the breeding population; survival; and the associated observation process. This model specification results in an explicit and compact expression for the model with associated efficiency in model fitting. Further, this framework naturally leads to extensions to more complex models, for example the separation of first-time from return breeders, through relatively simple changes to the mathematical structure of the model.

Reducing bias in survival under nonrandom temporary emigration

Despite intensive monitoring, temporary emigration from the sampling area can induce bias severe enough for managers to discard survival parameter estimates toward the terminus of the times series (terminal bias). Under random temporary emigration, unbiased parameters can be estimated with CJS models. However, unmodeled Markovian temporary emigration causes bias in parameter estimates, and an unobservable state is required to model this type of emigration. The robust design is most flexible when modeling temporary emigration, and partial solutions to mitigate bias have been identified; nonetheless, there are conditions were terminal bias prevails. Long-lived species with high adult survival and highly variable nonrandom temporary emigration present terminal bias in survival estimates, despite being modeled with the robust design and suggested constraints. Because this bias is due to uncertainty about the fate of individuals that are undetected toward the end of the time series, solutions should involve using additional information on survival status or location of these individuals at that time. Using simulation, we evaluated the performance of models that jointly analyze robust design data and an additional source of ancillary data (predictive covariate on temporary emigration, telemetry, dead recovery, or auxiliary resightings) in reducing terminal bias in survival estimates. The auxiliary resighting and predictive covariate models reduced terminal bias the most. Additional telemetry data were effective at reducing terminal bias only when individuals were tracked for a minimum of two years. High adult survival of long-lived species made the joint model with recovery data ineffective at reducing terminal bias because of small-sample bias. The naive constraint model (last and penultimate temporary emigration parameters made equal), was the least efficient, although still able to reduce terminal bias when compared to an unconstrained model. Joint analysis of several sources of data improved parameter estimates and reduced terminal bias. Efforts to incorporate or acquire such data should be considered by researchers and wildlife managers, especially in the years leading up to status assessments of species of interest. Simulation modeling is a very cost-effective method to explore the potential impacts of using different sources of data to produce high-quality demographic data to inform management.

Breeding return times and abundance in capture-recapture models

For many long-lived animal species, individuals do not breed every year, and are often not accessible during non-breeding periods. Individuals exhibit site fidelity if they return to the same breeding colony or spawning ground when they breed. If capture and recapture is only possible at the breeding site, temporary emigration models are used to allow for only a subset of the animals being present in any given year. Most temporary emigration models require the use of the robust sampling design, and their focus is usually on probabilities of annual survival and of transition between breeding and non-breeding states. We use lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) data from a closed population where only a simple (one sample per year) sampling scheme is possible, and we also wish to estimate abundance as well as sex-specific survival and breeding return time probabilities. By adding return time parameters to the Schwarz-Arnason version of the Jolly-Seber model, we have developed a new likelihood-based model which yields plausible estimates of abundance, survival, transition and return time parameters. An important new finding from investigation of the model is the overestimation of abundance if a Jolly-Seber model is used when Markovian temporary emigration is present.

Proximate weather patterns and spring green-up phenology effect Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) body mass and reproductive success: the implications of climate change and topography

Low spring temperatures have been found to benefit mobile herbivores by reducing the rate of spring-flush, whereas high rainfall increases forage availability. Cold winters prove detrimental, by increasing herbivore thermoregulatory burdens. Here we examine the effects of temperature and rainfall variability on a temperate sedentary herbivore, the Eurasian beaver, Castor fiber, in terms of inter-annual variation in mean body weight and per territory offspring production. Data pertain to 198 individuals, over 11 years, using capture-mark-recapture. We use plant growth (tree cores) and fAPAR (a satellite-derived plant productivity index) to examine potential mechanisms through which weather conditions affect the availability and the seasonal phenology of beaver forage. Juvenile body weights were lighter after colder winters, whereas warmer spring temperatures were associated with lighter adult body weights, mediated by enhanced green-up phenology rates. Counter-intuitively, we observed a negative association between rainfall and body weight in juveniles and adults, and also with reproductive success. Alder, Alnus incana, (n = 68) growth rings (principal beaver food in the study area) exhibited a positive relationship with rainfall for trees growing at elevations >2 m above water level, but a negative relationship for trees growing <0.5 m. We deduce that temperature influences beavers at the landscape scale via effects on spring green-up phenology and winter thermoregulation. Rainfall influences beavers at finer spatial scales through topographical interactions with plant growth, where trees near water level, prone to water logging, producing poorer forage in wetter years. Unlike most other herbivores, beavers are an obligate aquatic species that utilize a restricted 'central-place' foraging range, limiting their ability to take advantage of better forage growth further from water during wetter years. With respect to anthropogenic climate change, interactions between weather variables, plant phenology and topography on forage growth are instructive, and consequently warrant examination when developing conservation management strategies for populations of medium to large herbivores.

The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics

Ecologists are increasingly aware of the importance of environmental variability in natural systems. Climate change is affecting both the mean and the variability in weather and, in particular, the effect of changes in variability is poorly understood. Organisms are subject to selection imposed by both the mean and the range of environmental variation experienced by their ancestors. Changes in the variability in a critical environmental factor may therefore have consequences for vital rates and population dynamics. Here, we examine ≥90-year trends in different components of climate (precipitation mean and coefficient of variation (CV); temperature mean, seasonal amplitude and residual variance) and consider the effects of these components on survival and recruitment in a population of Eurasian beavers (n = 242) over 13 recent years. Within climatic data, no trends in precipitation were detected, but trends in all components of temperature were observed, with mean and residual variance increasing and seasonal amplitude decreasing over time. A higher survival rate was linked (in order of influence based on Akaike weights) to lower precipitation CV (kits, juveniles and dominant adults), lower residual variance of temperature (dominant adults) and lower mean precipitation (kits and juveniles). No significant effects were found on the survival of nondominant adults, although the sample size for this category was low. Greater recruitment was linked (in order of influence) to higher seasonal amplitude of temperature, lower mean precipitation, lower residual variance in temperature and higher precipitation CV. Both climate means and variance, thus proved significant to population dynamics; although, overall, components describing variance were more influential than those describing mean values. That environmental variation proves significant to a generalist, wide-ranging species, at the slow end of the slow-fast continuum of life histories, has broad implications for population regulation and the evolution of life histories.

Estimating demographic parameters using hidden process dynamic models

Structured population models are widely used in plant and animal demographic studies to assess population dynamics. In matrix population models, populations are described with discrete classes of individuals (age, life history stage or size). To calibrate these models, longitudinal data are collected at the individual level to estimate demographic parameters. However, several sources of uncertainty can complicate parameter estimation, such as imperfect detection of individuals inherent to monitoring in the wild and uncertainty in assigning a state to an individual. Here, we show how recent statistical models can help overcome these issues. We focus on hidden process models that run two time series in parallel, one capturing the dynamics of the true states and the other consisting of observations arising from these underlying possibly unknown states. In a first case study, we illustrate hidden Markov models with an example of how to accommodate state uncertainty using Frequentist theory and maximum likelihood estimation. In a second case study, we illustrate state-space models with an example of how to estimate lifetime reproductive success despite imperfect detection, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Hidden process models are a promising tool as they allow population biologists to cope with process variation while simultaneously accounting for observation error.

Global population status of shy albatross and an assessment of colony-specific trends and drivers

Context Monitoring the status of albatross populations and identifying the factors driving observed trends remain international conservation and management priorities. The shy albatross is endemic to Australia and breeds only on three Tasmanian islands. Aims To provide a reliable total population estimate for shy albatross, including an assessment of demographic trends for each of the three populations where possible. We consider also key drivers of population trends for each population, particularly the potential role of fisheries by-catch, with an overall aim of determining the status of the species. Methods Aerial photography and ground surveys were used to estimate the number of annual breeding pairs and trends in adult and juvenile survival rates were calculated using mark–recapture methods. At-sea distribution data was used to identify population specific trends in the overlap of shy albatross and fisheries to evaluate the potential influence of fisheries by-catch on the populations. Key Results The Albatross Island population increased post-harvesting but has recently stabilised at around 5200 breeding pairs, less than half its estimated historic size. This trajectory change appears driven by a decrease in juvenile survival. The small (170 breeding pairs) Pedra Branca population has recently declined, probably due to reduced breeding success associated with the increasing population of Australasian gannets (Morus serrator) on the island. The largest population (on Mewstone) comprises at least 9500 breeding pairs. Trends for this population are unknown. However, this paper demonstrates that these birds have greater overlap with trawl and longline fishing effort and are consequently at higher risk of fishing-related mortality. Conclusions Given the extent of fisheries overlap, survival rates for Mewstone individuals are likely to be lower than the Albatross Island population. Combined with recent trends on Pedra Branca and Albatross Island, we suggest that the current status of the shy albatross is likely to be stable at best and quite possibly decreasing. Implications The concerns raised about the conservation status of shy albatross reinforce the importance of continued population monitoring focussed particularly on establishing the trend of Mewstone. A thorough assessment of interactions with trawl fishing operations also is a management priority for this species.

Studying dispersal at the landscape scale: efficient combination of population surveys and capture-recapture data

Researchers often rely on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data to study animal dispersal in the wild. Yet their spatial coverage often does not encompass the entire dispersal range of the study individuals, sometimes producing misleading results. Information contained in population surveys and variation in population spatial structure can be used to overcome this issue. We build an integrated model in a multisite context in which CMR data are only collected at a subset of sites, but numbers of breeding pairs are counted at all sites. In a Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus population, the integrated-modeling approach induces an increase in precision for the demographic parameters of interest (variances, on average, were decreased by 20%) and provides a more precise extrapolation of results from the CMR data to the whole population. Patterns of condition-dependent dispersal are therefore made easier to detect, and we obtain evidence for colony-size dependence in recruitment, dispersal, and breeding success. These results suggest that first-time breeders disperse to small colonies in order to recruit earlier. The exchange of experienced breeders between colonies appears as a main determinant of the observed variation in colony sizes.

Optimal level of inbreeding in the common lizard

Mate choice with regard to genetic similarity has been rarely considered as a dynamic process. We examined this possibility in breeding populations of the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara) kept for several years in semi-natural conditions. We investigated whether they displayed a pattern of mate choice according to the genetic similarity and whether it was context-dependent. Mate choice depended on genetic similarity with the partner and also on age and condition. There was no systematic avoidance of inbreeding. Females of intermediate ages, more monogamous, did not mate with genetically similar partners, whereas younger and older females, more polyandrous, did but highest clutch proportions were associated with intermediate values of pair-relatedness. These results indicate dynamic mate choice, suggesting that individuals of different phenotypes select their partners in different ways according to their genetic similarity. We consider our results in the light of diverse and apparently contradictory theories concerning genetic compatibility, and particularly, optimal inbreeding and inclusive fitness.

Sampling design considerations for demographic studies: a case of colonial seabirds

For the purposes of making many informed conservation decisions, the main goal for data collection is to assess population status and allow prediction of the consequences of candidate management actions. Reducing the bias and variance of estimates of population parameters reduces uncertainty in population status and projections, thereby reducing the overall uncertainty under which a population manager must make a decision. In capture-recapture studies, imperfect detection of individuals, unobservable life-history states, local movement outside study areas, and tag loss can cause bias or precision problems with estimates of population parameters. Furthermore, excessive disturbance to individuals during capture-recapture sampling may be of concern because disturbance may have demographic consequences. We address these problems using as an example a monitoring program for Black-footed Albatross (Phoebastria nigripes) and Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) nesting populations in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. To mitigate these estimation problems, we describe a synergistic combination of sampling design and modeling approaches. Solutions include multiple capture periods per season and multistate, robust design statistical models, dead recoveries and incidental observations, telemetry and data loggers, buffer areas around study plots to neutralize the effect of local movements outside study plots, and double banding and statistical models that account for band loss. We also present a variation on the robust capture-recapture design and a corresponding statistical model that minimizes disturbance to individuals. For the albatross case study, this less invasive robust design was more time efficient and, when used in combination with a traditional robust design, reduced the standard error of detection probability by 14% with only two hours of additional effort in the field. These field techniques and associated modeling approaches are applicable to studies of most taxa being marked and in some cases have individually been applied to studies of birds, fish, herpetofauna, and mammals.

Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations

The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.

Dispersal of introduced house sparrows Passer domesticus: an experiment

An important issue concerning the introduction of non-indigenous organisms into local populations is the potential of the introduced individuals to spread and interfere both demographically and genetically with the local population. Accordingly, the potential of spatial dispersal among introduced individuals compared with local individuals is a key parameter to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of populations after an introduction event. In addition, if the variance in dispersal rate and distance is linked to individual characteristics, this may further affect the population dynamics. We conducted a large-scale experiment where we introduced 123 house sparrows from a distant population into 18 local populations without changing population density or sex ratio. Introduced individuals dispersed more frequently and over longer distances than residents. Furthermore, females had higher probability of dispersal than males. In females, there was also a positive relationship between the wing length and the probability of dispersal and dispersal distance. These results suggest that the distribution and frequency of introduced individuals may be predicted by their sex ratio as well as their phenotypic characteristics.

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals

1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD=1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean=4-5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates=4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life-history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.

Recruitment to a seabird population depends on environmental factors and on population size

1. A novel capture-mark-recapture (CMR) method was used to build a multistate model of recruitment by young birds to a breeding population of common guillemots Uria aalge on the Isle of May, Scotland. Recruitment of a total of 2757 individually marked guillemots over 17 years was modelled as a process where individuals had to move from an unobservable state at sea, through a nonbreeding state present in the colony, to the breeding state. The probabilities of individuals returning to the colony in a given year, at age 2 and 3-4 years, were positively correlated with an environmental covariate, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index (WNAO) in the previous years. 2. For 2 year olds, there was a negative relationship with breeding population size, suggesting that density dependence operated in this colony through limitation of food or some other resource. 3. Survival over the first 2 years of life varied with cohort, but was unrelated to the WNAO. Mean survival over this 2-year period was high at 0.576 (95% CI: 0.444; 0.708). 4. This high survival, combined with a low 'local' survival after age 5 years of 0.695 (0-654; 0.733) and observations of Isle of May chicks at other colonies, suggests that most surviving chicks return to the natal colony before deciding whether to recruit there or move elsewhere.

Climate and demography of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus off northern California: implications for population change

1. We performed demographic analyses on Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, a zooplanktivorous seabird inhabiting the variable California Current System, to understand how temporal environmental variability influences population dynamics. 2. We used capture-recapture data from 1986 to 2002 to rank models of interannual variation in survival, breeding propensity, breeding success, and recruitment. 3. All demographic parameters exhibited temporal variability. Interannual variation in survival was best modelled as a nonlinear function of the winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Breeding propensity was best modelled as a threshold function of local sea surface temperature. Breeding success and recruitment were best modelled with year-dependent annual variation. 4. Changes in the SOI force El Niño/La Niña events, which in turn alter prey availability to seabirds in this system. Demographic responses varied during El Niños/La Niñas. Survival diminished substantially during the 1997-98 El Niño event, while breeding propensity was affected during both the 1992 and 1998 El Niños. Breeding success was reduced during the 1992, 1993, and 1998 El Niños, but was unusually high in 2002. Recruitment was higher at the beginning and end of this time-series. 5. While demographic responses varied interannually, parameter values covaried in a positive fashion, a situation conducive to rapid population change. During the 11 years study period, the Farallon auklet breeding population declined at 6.05 +/- 0.80% (SE) per year, a cumulative decline of 49.7%. This study demonstrates how climate variability has influenced key demographic processes for this diminished marine bird population.

Age-specific fitness components and their temporal variation in the barn owl

Theory predicts that temporal variability plays an important role in the evolution of life histories, but empirical studies evaluating this prediction are rare. In constant environments, fitness can be measured by the population growth rate lambda, and the sensitivity of lambda to changes in fitness components estimates selection on these traits. In variable environments, fitness is measured by the stochastic growth rate lambda(S), and stochastic sensitivities estimate selection pressure. Here we examine age-specific schedules for reproduction and survival in a barn owl population (Tyto alba). We estimated how temporal variability affected fitness and selection, accounting for sampling variance. Despite large sample sizes of old individuals, we found no strong evidence for senescence. The most variable fitness components were associated with reproduction. Survival was less variable. Stochastic simulations showed that the observed variation decreased fitness by about 30%, but the sensitivities of lambda and lambda(S) to changes in all fitness components were almost equal, suggesting that temporal variation had negligible effects on selection. We obtained these results despite high observed variability in the fitness components and relatively short generation time of the study organism, a situation in which temporal variability should be particularly important for natural selection and early senescence is expected.

Dynamical and statistical models of vertebrate population dynamics

Population dynamics methodology now powerfully combines discrete time models (with constant parameters, density dependence, random environment, and/or demographic stochasticity) and capture-recapture models for estimating demographic parameters. Vertebrate population dynamics has strongly benefited from this progress: survival estimates have been revised upwards, trade-offs between life history traits have been demonstrated, analyses of population viability and management are more and more realistic. Promising developments concern random effects, multistate and integrated models. Some biological questions (density dependence, links between individual and population levels, and diversification of life histories) can now be efficiently attacked.

Experimental enhancement of corticosterone levels positively affects subsequent male survival

Corticosterone is an important hormone of the stress response that regulates physiological processes and modifies animal behavior. While it positively acts on locomotor activity, it may negatively affect reproduction and social activity. This suggests that corticosterone may promote behaviors that increase survival at the cost of reproduction. In this study, we experimentally investigate the link between corticosterone levels and survival in adult common lizards (Lacerta vivipara) by comparing corticosterone-treated with placebo-treated lizards. We experimentally show that corticosterone enhances energy expenditure, daily activity, food intake, and it modifies the behavioral time budget. Enhanced appetite of corticosterone-treated individuals compensated for increased energy expenditure and corticosterone-treated males showed increased survival. This suggests that corticosterone may promote behaviors that reduce stress and it shows that corticosterone per se does not reduce but directly or indirectly increases longer-term survival. This suggests that the production of corticosterone as a response to a stressor may be an adaptive mechanism that even controls survival.

Adult survival and temporary emigration in the common toad

In vertebrates exhibiting intermittent breeding, breeding activity is a factor of critical importance in capture–recapture studies using data from individually marked animals. Nonbreeders can be absent from locations used by breeders and can be considered "temporary emigrants". We addressed the influence of sex on survival in common toads, Bufo bufo (L., 1758), using the Joly–Seber model and the existance of temporary emigration in male common toads by assessing trap-dependence and by conducting a robust design analysis. We addressed the hypothesis that the probability of the presence of an individual in the study area depends on the presence of the individual the year before (i.e., that transitions between reproductive states are a first-order Markovian process). Results provided support for the hypotheses of random temporary emigration, of sex-specific differences in survival, and of the presence of "transients" in males. Females had intermediate survival compared with the groups of "transients + residents" and "resident" males. Females had lower recapture probability under the Joly–Seber model, which may be interpreted as evidence of lower breeding probability or lower detectability of breeding females. Behaviour may explain this difference in that females may attend ponds for shorter periods. This may be common in species where females aggregate to seek fertilization and lay eggs in locations attended by males and in species with a "resource-based lek" mating system.

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Conspecific reproductive success affects age of recruitment in a great cormorant, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis, colony

Few studies have addressed the proximate factors affecting the age at which individuals of long-lived bird species are recruited into the breeding population. We use capture-recapture analysis of resightings of 16 birth cohorts of colour-ringed great cormorants, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis, in a Danish colony to assess the evidence for two hypotheses: conspecific attraction (earlier recruitment when the colony is large) and conspecific reproductive success (earlier recruitment following years of high breeding success). For both males and females, conspecific reproductive success was the most important covariate explaining the interannual variation in age of recruitment; colony size was also important for females. These covariates explained nearly 60% of the year-to-year variation for both sexes. The age of recruitment increased for cohorts born after 1990, and this increase was correlated with a decline in breeding success in the colony; we interpret this as an indirect and delayed density-dependent effect. Females were recruited earlier than males (mean age of recruitment for cohorts born before 1990: 2.98 years versus 3.53 years); the most plausible reason for this is a skewed sex ratio in favour of males in the adult population. Recruitment of males may thus, to some extent, be constrained by the availability of females. This study provides the first evidence that conspecific reproductive success can affect the age at which individual birds start to breed.

Combining band recovery data and Pollock's robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration

Capture-recapture models are widely used to estimate demographic parameters of marked populations. Recently, this statistical theory has been extended to modeling dispersal of open populations. Multistate models can be used to estimate movement probabilities among subdivided populations if multiple sites are sampled. Frequently, however, sampling is limited to a single site. Models described by Burnham (1993, in Marked Individuals in the Study of Bird Populations, 199-213), which combined open population capture-recapture and band-recovery models, can be used to estimate permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. Similarly, Kendall, Nichols, and Hines (1997, Ecology 51, 563-578) developed models to estimate temporary emigration under Pollock's (1982, Journal of Wildlife Management 46, 757-760) robust design. We describe a likelihood-based approach to simultaneously estimate temporary and permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. We use a sampling design that combines the robust design and recoveries of individuals obtained immediately following each sampling period. We present a general form for our model where temporary emigration is a first-order Markov process, and we discuss more restrictive models. We illustrate these models with analysis of data on marked Canvasback ducks. Our analysis indicates that probability of permanent emigration for adult female Canvasbacks was 0.193 (SE = 0.082) and that birds that were present at the study area in year i - 1 had a higher probability of presence in year i than birds that were not present in year i - 1.

Estimation of age-specific breeding probabilities from capture-recapture data

We provide a new method for estimating the age-specific breeding probabilities from recaptures or resightings of animals marked as young. Our method is more direct than previous methods and allows the modeler to fit and compare models where the age-specific breeding proportions are equal over different cohorts or are a function of external covariates.