Early improvement predicts reduced risk of incident diabetes and improved cardiovascular risk in prediabetic Asian Indian men participating in a 2-year lifestyle intervention program

Call to action for clinicians in the South-East Asian regions on primary prevention of diabetes in people with prediabetes- A consensus statement

Primary prevention of diabetes still remains as an unmet challenge in a real world setting. While, translational programmes have been successful in the developed nations, the prevailing social and economic inequities in the low and middle income countries, fail to integrate diabetes prevention into their public health systems. The resulting exponential increase in the prevalence of diabetes and the cost of treatment has put primary prevention in the back seat. As a call to action, an expert group was formed to lay down practical guidelines for clinicians in the South East Asian regions to implement primary prevention programmes at an individual or at a community level. The guideline was developed based on the outcomes of the evidence based prevention programmes conducted in India. This decentralised self-guided approach for primary prevention of diabetes follows a three step implementation process of screening, diagnosis of intermediate hyperglycaemia and design and delivery of personalized interventions. Recommendations provided on dietary intake and physical activity can be tailored by the clinician to suit individual needs. Initiation of pharmacological treatment to achieve desired targets has also been addressed. A personalised approach by the clinician may be effective and offer a sustainable solution to curb the rising epidemic.

Impact of a lifestyle intervention program on cardio-metabolic parameters among obese adults: A comparative population-based study in West Bengal, India

The obesity epidemic is not only limited to high-income or urbanized societies, but has also become prevalent among rural communities, even in India. Approaches to modifiable behaviors, like unhealthy dietary habits or a sedentary lifestyle, could bring positive results among obese populations. This research aimed to assess the effectiveness of lifestyle intervention programs to prevent obesity and cardio-metabolic risks among Bengali obese adults (Body Mass Index of 25-30kg/m²). The population was selected from rural and urban communities of Hooghly district in west Bengal, India and included 121 participants (20-50 years), divided into four groups (rural male, rural female, urban male, and urban female) who underwent a 12-month intervention program. Anthropometric parameters, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, biochemical parameters (fasting blood glucose, fasting plasma insulin, Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance [HOMA-IR] and lipid profile), dietary habits, and physical activity profiles were assessed before the study (baseline), after 12 months of intervention (post-intervention), and after 24 months (follow-up), among all groups, to evaluate changes in data within and between the groups (rural vs. urban). The results showed a significant decline in anthropometric parameters and fasting blood glucose levels among all intervention groups, HOMA-IR in rural females, and serum triglyceride levels in urban groups. A significant improvement was noted regarding dietary habits and physical activity, even during follow-up. The impact of the intervention program did not show any rural-urban difference. The lifestyle intervention program was effective in reducing obesity and related health risks and promoting a healthy lifestyle among the target population.

Nutritional basis of type 2 diabetes remission

Roy Taylor and colleagues explain how type 2 diabetes can be reversed by weight loss and avoidance of weight regain

Lifestyle Interventions for Diabetes Prevention in South Asians: Current Evidence and Opportunities

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review summarizes the burden of diabetes in South Asian populations and reviews recent evidence for diabetes prevention through lifestyle modification among South Asians worldwide. We indicate important gaps in the current literature and point to opportunities for additional research in this area.

RECENT FINDINGS

Randomized, controlled, efficacy studies and implementation research show that lifestyle intervention can be an effective, cost-effective, and feasible method for reducing diabetes risk, improving cardiometabolic health, and improving lifestyle behaviors in South Asian populations, a population at high diabetes risk and elevated rates of diabetes risk factors. Additional research is needed to address diabetes risk reduction in normal-weight South Asians and individuals with impaired fasting glucose; improve community-level implementation, individual uptake, and dissemination of proven programs; and assess long-term outcomes of interventions.

Type 2 diabetes and remission: practical management guided by pathophysiology

The twin cycle hypothesis postulated that type 2 diabetes was a result of excess liver fat causing excess supply of fat to the pancreas with resulting dysfunction of both organs. If this was so, the condition should be able to be returned to normal by calorie restriction. The Counterpoint study tested this prediction in short-duration type 2 diabetes and showed that liver glucose handling returned to normal within 7 days and that beta-cell function returned close to normal over 8 weeks. Subsequent studies have demonstrated the durability of remission from type 2 diabetes. Remarkably, during the first 12 months of remission, the maximum functional beta-cell mass returns completely to normal and remains so for at least 24 months, consistent with regain of insulin secretory function of beta cells which had dedifferentiated in the face of chronic nutrient oversupply. The likelihood of achieving remission after 15% weight loss has been shown to be mainly determined by the duration of diabetes, with responders having better beta-cell function at baseline. Remission is independent of BMI, underscoring the personal fat threshold concept that type 2 diabetes develops when an individual acquires more fat than can be individually tolerated even at a BMI which in the nonobese range. Observations on people of South Asian or Afro-American ethnicity confirm that substantial weight loss achieves remission in the same way as in the largely White Europeans studied in detail. Diagnosis of type 2 diabetes can now be regarded as an urgent signal that weight loss must be achieved to avoid a progressive decline of health.

Clinical and metabolomic predictors of regression to normoglycemia in a population at intermediate cardiometabolic risk

Background

Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is a prevalent and potentially reversible intermediate stage leading to type 2 diabetes that increases risk for cardiometabolic complications. The identification of clinical and molecular factors associated with the reversal, or regression, from IFG to a normoglycemia state would enable more efficient cardiovascular risk reduction strategies. The aim of this study was to identify clinical and biological predictors of regression to normoglycemia in a non-European population characterized by high rates of type 2 diabetes.

Methods

We conducted a prospective, population-based study among 9637 Mexican individuals using clinical features and plasma metabolites. Among them, 491 subjects were classified as IFG, defined as fasting glucose between 100 and 125 mg/dL at baseline. Regression to normoglycemia was defined by fasting glucose less than 100 mg/dL in the follow-up visit. Plasma metabolites were profiled by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance. Multivariable cox regression models were used to examine the associations of clinical and metabolomic factors with regression to normoglycemia. We assessed the predictive capability of models that included clinical factors alone and models that included clinical factors and prioritized metabolites.

Results

During a median follow-up period of 2.5 years, 22.6% of participants (n = 111) regressed to normoglycemia, and 29.5% progressed to type 2 diabetes (n = 145). The multivariate adjusted relative risk of regression to normoglycemia was 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25 to 1.32) per 10 years of age increase, 0.94 (95% CI 0.91–0.98) per 1 SD increase in BMI, and 0.91 (95% CI 0.88–0.95) per 1 SD increase in fasting glucose. A model including information from age, fasting glucose, and BMI showed a good prediction of regression to normoglycemia (AUC = 0.73 (95% CI 0.66–0.78). The improvement after adding information from prioritized metabolites (TG in large HDL, albumin, and citrate) was non-significant (AUC = 0.74 (95% CI 0.68–0.80), p value = 0.485).

Conclusion

In individuals with IFG, information from three clinical variables easily obtained in the clinical setting showed a good prediction of regression to normoglycemia beyond metabolomic features. Our findings can serve to inform and design future cardiovascular prevention strategies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01246-1.

Reversion From Pre-Diabetes Mellitus to Normoglycemia and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in a Chinese Population: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

It is unclear whether reversion from pre–diabetes mellitus to normoglycemia reduces cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all‐cause mortality risk in a Chinese population. We aimed to fill this research gap.

Methods and Results

The current study included 14 231 Chinese participants (mean age, 58.08 years) who were free from myocardial infarction and stroke at the time of survey participation (2006–2007 and 2008–2009). Participants were divided into 3 categories according to the 2‐year changes in pre–diabetes mellitus, defined by fasting plasma glucose: those with progression to diabetes mellitus, those with reversion from pre–diabetes mellitus to normoglycemia, and those with persistent pre–diabetes mellitus. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% CIs for CVD and all‐cause mortality. After a median follow‐up period of 8.75 years, a total of 879 CVD events (including 180 myocardial infarction events and 713 stroke events) and 941 all‐cause mortality events were recorded. After adjustment for confounding factors, reversion from pre–diabetes mellitus to normoglycemia was associated with decreased risks of CVD (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.64–0.96), myocardial infarction (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.40–0.97), stroke (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63–0.98), and all‐cause mortality (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68–0.99) compared with progression to diabetes mellitus.

Conclusions

Reversion from fasting plasma glucose–defined pre–diabetes mellitus to normoglycemia was associated with a reduction in the future risk of CVD and all‐cause mortality in a Chinese population.

Registration

URL: https://www.chictr.org; Unique identifier: ChiCTRTNC‐11001489.

Obtaining evidence base for the development of Feel4Diabetes intervention to prevent type 2 diabetes - a narrative literature review

BACKGROUND

Feel4Diabetes was a school and community based intervention aiming to promote healthy lifestyle and tackle obesity for the prevention of type 2 diabetes among families in 6 European countries. We conducted this literature review in order to guide the development of evidence-based implementation of the Feel4Diabetes intervention. We focused on type 2 diabetes prevention strategies, including all the phases from risk identification to implementation and maintenance. Special focus was given to prevention among vulnerable groups and people under 45 years.

METHODS

Scientific and grey literature published between January 2000 and January 2015 was searched for relevant studies using electronic databases. To present the literature review findings in a systematic way, we used the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. A complementary literature search from February 2015 to December 2018 was also conducted.

RESULTS

The initial review included 27 studies with a follow-up ≥12 months and 9 studies with a follow-up ≥6 months and with a participant mean age < 45 years. We found out that interventions should be targeted at people at risk to improve recruiting and intervention effectiveness. Screening questionnaires (primarily Finnish Diabetes Risk Score FINDRISC) and blood glucose measurement can both be used for screening; the method does not appear to affect intervention effectiveness. Screening and recruitment is time-consuming, especially when targeting lower socioeconomic status and age under 45 years. The intervention intensity is more important for effectiveness than the mode of delivery. Moderate changes in several lifestyle habits lead to good intervention results. A minimum of 3-year follow-up seemed to be required to show a reduction in diabetes risk in high-risk individuals. In participants < 45 years, the achieved results in outcomes were less pronounced. The complementary review included 12 studies, with similar results regarding intervention targets and delivery modes, as well as clinical significance.

CONCLUSION

This narrative review highlighted several important aspects that subsequently guided the development of the Feel4Diabetes high-risk intervention. Research on diabetes prevention interventions targeted at younger adults or vulnerable population groups is still relatively scarce. Feel4Diabetes is a good example of a project aiming to fill this research gap.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov NCT02393872, registered 20th March 2015.

What predicts regression from pre-diabetes to normal glucose regulation following a primary care nurse-delivered dietary intervention? A study protocol for a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Pre-diabetes is a high-risk state for the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease. Regression to normoglycaemia, even if transient, significantly reduces the risk of developing T2DM. The primary aim of this mixed-methods study is to determine if there are clinically relevant differences among those with pre-diabetes and excess weight who regress to normoglycaemia, those who have persistent pre-diabetes and those who progress to T2DM following participation in a 6-month primary care nurse-delivered pre-diabetes dietary intervention. Incidence of T2DM at 2 years will be examined.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Four hundred participants with pre-diabetes (New Zealand definition glycated haemoglobin 41-49 mmol/mol) and a body mass index >25 kg/m² will be recruited through eight primary care practices in Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. Trained primary care nurses will deliver a 6-month structured dietary intervention, followed by quarterly reviews for 18 months post-intervention. Clinical data, data on lifestyle factors and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) and blood samples will be collected at baseline, 6 months, 12 months and 24 months. Sixty participants purposefully selected will complete a semi-structured interview following the 6-month intervention. Poisson regression with robust standard errors and clustered by practice will be used to identify predictors of regression or progression at 6 months, and risk factors for developing T2DM at 2 years. Qualitative data will be analysed thematically. Changes in HR-QoL will be described and potential cost savings will be estimated from a funder's perspective at 2 years.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the Northern A Health and Disability Ethics Committee, New Zealand (Ethics Reference: 17/NTA/24). Study results will be presented to participants, published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at relevant conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12617000591358; Pre-results.

Regression to Normal Glucose Regulation in American Indians and Alaska Natives of a Diabetes Prevention Program

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated whether regression from impaired glucose regulation (IGR) to normal glucose regulation (NGR) after 1 year of a lifestyle intervention reduces diabetes risk in American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs). In addition, we sought to identify predictors for regression to NGR and understand possible mechanisms for the association between NGR and future diabetes risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Data from participants enrolled from 2006 to 2009 in the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention Program with IGR at baseline and an oral glucose tolerance test at year 1 were analyzed (N = 1,443). Cox regression models were used to estimate the subsequent diabetes risk (year 1 to year 3) by year 1 glucose status. Mediation analysis was used to estimate the proportions of the association between year 1 glycemic status and diabetes risk explained by specific factors.

RESULTS

Those who reverted to NGR at year 1 (38%) had lower diabetes risk than those with sustained IGR (adjusted hazard ratio 0.28, 95% CI 0.12-0.67). The lower risk associated with regression to NGR was explained by both baseline risk factors and differences in weight loss. Metformin use, weight loss, and an increase in exercise were modifiable risk factors associated with higher odds of regression to NGR.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with prediabetes who reverted to NGR had a reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes over the next 2 years. Both baseline and modifiable risk factors explained the risk reduction associated with NGR.

Diet, physical activity or both for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in people at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The projected rise in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) could develop into a substantial health problem worldwide. Whether diet, physical activity or both can prevent or delay T2DM and its associated complications in at-risk people is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of diet, physical activity or both on the prevention or delay of T2DM and its associated complications in people at increased risk of developing T2DM.

SEARCH METHODS

This is an update of the Cochrane Review published in 2008. We searched the CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, ICTRP Search Portal and reference lists of systematic reviews, articles and health technology assessment reports. The date of the last search of all databases was January 2017. We continuously used a MEDLINE email alert service to identify newly published studies using the same search strategy as described for MEDLINE up to September 2017.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a duration of two years or more.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methodology for data collection and analysis. We assessed the overall quality of the evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 12 RCTs randomising 5238 people. One trial contributed 41% of all participants. The duration of the interventions varied from two to six years. We judged none of the included trials at low risk of bias for all 'Risk of bias' domains.Eleven trials compared diet plus physical activity with standard or no treatment. Nine RCTs included participants with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), one RCT included participants with IGT, impaired fasting blood glucose (IFG) or both, and one RCT included people with fasting glucose levels between 5.3 to 6.9 mmol/L. A total of 12 deaths occurred in 2049 participants in the diet plus physical activity groups compared with 10 in 2050 participants in the comparator groups (RR 1.12, 95% CI 0.50 to 2.50; 95% prediction interval 0.44 to 2.88; 4099 participants, 10 trials; very low-quality evidence). The definition of T2DM incidence varied among the included trials. Altogether 315 of 2122 diet plus physical activity participants (14.8%) developed T2DM compared with 614 of 2389 comparator participants (25.7%) (RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.64; 95% prediction interval 0.50 to 0.65; 4511 participants, 11 trials; moderate-quality evidence). Two trials reported serious adverse events. In one trial no adverse events occurred. In the other trial one of 51 diet plus physical activity participants compared with none of 51 comparator participants experienced a serious adverse event (low-quality evidence). Cardiovascular mortality was rarely reported (four of 1626 diet plus physical activity participants and four of 1637 comparator participants (the RR ranged between 0.94 and 3.16; 3263 participants, 7 trials; very low-quality evidence). Only one trial reported that no non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke had occurred (low-quality evidence). Two trials reported that none of the participants had experienced hypoglycaemia. One trial investigated health-related quality of life in 2144 participants and noted that a minimal important difference between intervention groups was not reached (very low-quality evidence). Three trials evaluated costs of the interventions in 2755 participants. The largest trial of these reported an analysis of costs from the health system perspective and society perspective reflecting USD 31,500 and USD 51,600 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) with diet plus physical activity, respectively (low-quality evidence). There were no data on blindness or end-stage renal disease.One trial compared a diet-only intervention with a physical-activity intervention or standard treatment. The participants had IGT. Three of 130 participants in the diet group compared with none of the 141 participants in the physical activity group died (very low-quality evidence). None of the participants died because of cardiovascular disease (very low-quality evidence). Altogether 57 of 130 diet participants (43.8%) compared with 58 of 141 physical activity participants (41.1%) group developed T2DM (very low-quality evidence). No adverse events were recorded (very low-quality evidence). There were no data on non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, blindness, end-stage renal disease, health-related quality of life or socioeconomic effects.Two trials compared physical activity with standard treatment in 397 participants. One trial included participants with IGT, the other trial included participants with IGT, IFG or both. One trial reported that none of the 141 physical activity participants compared with three of 133 control participants died. The other trial reported that three of 84 physical activity participants and one of 39 control participants died (very low-quality evidence). In one trial T2DM developed in 58 of 141 physical activity participants (41.1%) compared with 90 of 133 control participants (67.7%). In the other trial 10 of 84 physical activity participants (11.9%) compared with seven of 39 control participants (18%) developed T2DM (very low-quality evidence). Serious adverse events were rarely reported (one trial noted no events, one trial described events in three of 66 physical activity participants compared with one of 39 control participants - very low-quality evidence). Only one trial reported on cardiovascular mortality (none of 274 participants died - very low-quality evidence). Non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke were rarely observed in the one trial randomising 123 participants (very low-quality evidence). One trial reported that none of the participants in the trial experienced hypoglycaemia. One trial investigating health-related quality of life in 123 participants showed no substantial differences between intervention groups (very low-quality evidence). There were no data on blindness or socioeconomic effects.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no firm evidence that diet alone or physical activity alone compared to standard treatment influences the risk of T2DM and especially its associated complications in people at increased risk of developing T2DM. However, diet plus physical activity reduces or delays the incidence of T2DM in people with IGT. Data are lacking for the effect of diet plus physical activity for people with intermediate hyperglycaemia defined by other glycaemic variables. Most RCTs did not investigate patient-important outcomes.

Effect of high-protein meal replacement on weight and cardiometabolic profile in overweight/obese Asian Indians in North India

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of a high-protein meal replacement (HPMR) on weight and metabolic, lipid and inflammatory parameters in overweight/obese Asian Indians. In this 12-week open-label, parallel-arm randomised controlled trial, 122 overweight/obese men and women were administered either a HPMR or a control diet after 2 weeks of diet and exercise run-in. Body weight, waist circumference (WC), percentage body fat (%BF), fasting blood glucose, post-oral glucose tolerance test (post-OGTT) blood glucose, fasting and post-OGTT serum insulin, lipid profile, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), kidney function and hepatic aminotransferases were assessed before and after the intervention. Additional improvement in mean values for the following parameters in the HPMR group compared with the control group was observed: body weight, 4·9 % (95 % CI 3·8, 6·1; P<0·001); WC, 3·8 % (95 % CI 2·5, 5·1; P<0·001); %BF, 6·3 % (95 % CI 4·3, 8·2; P<0·001); systolic blood pressure, 2·8 % (95 % CI 0·4, 5·1; P=0·002); diastolic blood pressure, 3·5 % (95 % CI 0·7, 6·3; P= 0·01); post-OGTT blood glucose, 7·3 % (95 % CI 1·4, 13·1; P=0·02); total cholesterol, 2·5 % (95 % CI 1·6, 3·5; P<0·001); LDL-cholesterol, 7·3 % (95 % CI 1·7, 12·9; P<0·01); alanine aminotransferase, 22·0 % (95 % CI 2·1, 42; P=0·03) and aspartate aminotransferase, 15·2 % (95 % CI 0·9, 29·5; P=0·04). The absolute reduction in BMI was 0·9 units in the intervention arm compared with the control arm (-0·9 %, 95 % CI -1·4, -0·5; P<0·001) and in serum TAG was 11·9 mg/dl (-11·9 mg/dl, 95 % CI -21·1, -2·7; P<0·01). The reduction in fasting serum insulin in the intervention v. the control arm was 3·8 v. 0 % (P=0·002); post-OGTT serum insulin was 50·3 v. 77·3 mU/l (P=0·005); and hs-CRP, 16·7 % v. 0 % (P=0·002). These findings show that intervention with HPMR may lead to significant weight loss and improvement in obesity measures, metabolic, lipid and inflammatory parameters and hepatic transaminases in overweight/obese Asian Indians.

Major Pathophysiology in Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes: Decreased Insulin in Lean and Insulin Resistance in Obese

CONTEXT

Lowering of body mass index (BMI) to ≥25 kg/m2 as obesity by ADA suggests insulin resistance as a major mechanism of impaired glucose metabolism (IGM) in Asians. However, glimepiride, an insulin secretagogue, delayed onset of type 2 diabetes (DM2) from prediabetes (PreDM), indicating decreased insulin secretion (IS) as a major factor in lean (L; BMI < 27 kg/m2) subjects with IGM.

OBJECTIVE

Assessment of IS and insulin resistance (IR) in L and obese (Ob; BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2) subjects with euglycemia (N), PreDM, and new onset DM2.

SUBJECTS

Seventy-five men and 45 women ages 36 to 75 years were divided into six groups: LN, LPreDM, LDM2, ObN, ObPreDM, and ObDM2.

METHODS

Determination of IS by insulinogenic indices (I/G) at fasting (FI/FG), first phase (∆I/∆G), and cumulative responses over 2 hours of OGTT (CRI/CRG), and IR by FIXFG, ∆IX∆G, and CRIXCRG. Changes in IS and IR for PreDM and DM2 were calculated as % fall and % rise, respectively, from levels in N.

RESULTS

All indices of IS and IR were lower (P < 0.05) in L than corresponding Ob groups (P < 0.05). Moreover, decline in IS and rise in IR were progressive from N to PreDM (P < 0.05) and DM2 (P < 0.05) in both groups. However, the declines in IS were greater (P < 0.05) than rises in IR in LPreDM and LDM2. Whereas, the rises in IR were higher (P < 0.05) than declines in IS in ObPreDM and ObDM2.

CONCLUSION

In L, major mechanism of IGM is declining IS and not rising IR documented among Ob.

Metabolomics based markers predict type 2 diabetes in a 14-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

The growing field of metabolomics has opened up new opportunities for prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D) going beyond the classical biochemistry assays.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to identify markers from different pathways which represent early metabolic changes and test their predictive performance for T2D, as compared to the performance of traditional risk factors (TRF).

METHODS

We analyzed 2776 participants from the Erasmus Rucphen Family study from which 1571 disease free individuals were followed up to 14-years. The targeted metabolomics measurements at baseline were performed by three different platforms using either nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy or mass spectrometry. We selected 24 T2D markers by using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection operator (LASSO) regression and tested their association to incidence of disease during follow-up.

RESULTS

The 24 markers i.e. high-density, low-density and very low-density lipoprotein sub-fractions, certain triglycerides, amino acids, and small intermediate compounds predicted future T2D with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81. The performance of the metabolic markers compared to glucose was significantly higher among the young (age < 50 years) (0.86 vs. 0.77, p-value <0.0001), the female (0.88 vs. 0.84, p-value =0.009), and the lean (BMI < 25 kg/m²) (0.85 vs. 0.80, p-value =0.003). The full model with fasting glucose, TRFs, and metabolic markers yielded the best prediction model (AUC = 0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Our novel prediction model increases the long-term prediction performance in combination with classical measurements, brings a higher resolution over the complexity of the lipoprotein component, increasing the specificity for individuals in the low risk group.

Update and Next Steps for Real-World Translation of Interventions for Type 2 Diabetes Prevention: Reflections From a Diabetes Care Editors' Expert Forum

The International Diabetes Federation estimates that 415 million adults worldwide now have diabetes and 318 million have impaired glucose tolerance. These numbers are expected to increase to 642 million and 482 million, respectively, by 2040. This burgeoning pandemic places an enormous burden on countries worldwide, particularly resource-poor regions. Numerous landmark trials evaluating both intensive lifestyle modification and pharmacological interventions have persuasively demonstrated that type 2 diabetes can be prevented or its onset can be delayed in high-risk individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. However, key challenges remain, including how to scale up such approaches for widespread translation and implementation, how to select appropriately from various interventions and tailor them for different populations and settings, and how to ensure that preventive interventions yield clinically meaningful, cost-effective outcomes. In June 2015, a Diabetes Care Editors' Expert Forum convened to discuss these issues. This article, an outgrowth of the forum, begins with a summary of seminal prevention trials, followed by a discussion of considerations for selecting appropriate populations for intervention and the clinical implications of the various diagnostic criteria for prediabetes. The authors outline knowledge gaps in need of elucidation and explore a possible new avenue for securing regulatory approval of a prevention-related indication for metformin, as well as specific considerations for future pharmacological interventions to delay the onset of type 2 diabetes. They conclude with descriptions of some innovative, pragmatic translational initiatives already under way around the world.

A high-risk phenotype associates with reduced improvement in glycaemia during a lifestyle intervention in prediabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Lack of reversal of prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance and/or impaired fasting glucose) to normal glucose regulation (NGR) during a lifestyle intervention is strongly associated with a higher incidence of diabetes later in life. In the Tübingen Lifestyle Intervention Program (TULIP) we hypothesised that an at-risk phenotype may exist at baseline that associates with this nonresponse to the intervention.

METHODS

A total of 120 participants of TULIP with prediabetes at baseline were studied. Participants underwent 9 months of lifestyle intervention and had measurements of insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity during a 75 g OGTT, and measurements of liver fat content by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy.

RESULTS

During the lifestyle intervention, 55% of the participants did not revert to NGR. Even among participants with the largest body fat loss (upper quartile: -6.9 ± 3.3%, mean ± SD), 40% did not revert to NGR. In this regard, we identified at baseline a high-risk phenotype (n = 72) consisting of low disposition index or low insulin sensitivity + nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and a low-risk phenotype (n = 48, all other traits). While the adjusted decrease in body fat was almost identical between these phenotypes (-5.7 ± 15.3% vs -7.7 ± 15.2%, p = 0.49), the high-risk phenotype had a smaller decrease in adjusted 2 h blood glucose levels (-3.7 ± 20.3% vs -18.5 ± 20.0%, p = 0.0009). In addition, only 31% of the participants with the high-risk phenotype, but 67% with the low-risk phenotype, reverted to NGR (p < 0.0001). The odds ratio for reaching the status NGR was 4.54 (95% CI 2.08, 9.94) for participants having the low-risk phenotype.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Stratification of individuals with prediabetes at baseline into a high-risk and a low-risk phenotype, based on corrected insulin secretion and insulin-resistant NAFLD, may help to determine the effectiveness of a lifestyle intervention to revert individuals to NGR.

The oral disposition index is a strong predictor of incident diabetes in Asian Indian prediabetic men

AIMS

In this analysis, we sought to examine the prospective association of the disposition index (DIo) derived from oral glucose tolerance test with incident diabetes in Asian Indian men with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT).

METHODS

These post hoc analyses used data from a 2-year prospective study in primary prevention of diabetes using lifestyle intervention among 517 men with IGT. All the participants received standard lifestyle advice at baseline. The surrogate insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion measures were tested for their hyperbolic relationship. Predictive associations of various surrogate measures with incident diabetes were determined using receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

The combination of total area under the curve of insulin-to-glucose ratio (AUCinsulin/glucose) and Matsuda's insulin sensitivity index was the best equation to depict DIo [β: -0.954 (95 % CI -1.015 to -0.893)] compared to other measures tested in this cohort. There was an inverse association between change in DIo at the final follow-up and development of incident diabetes. Among the surrogate insulin measures studied, DIo [AUC (0.717 (95 % CI 0.675-0.756))] as a composite measure was superior than other surrogate indices.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the surrogate indices studied, DIo was the best measure associated with incident diabetes.