Cumulative Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Inception Cohort Study

Reduced insulin use and diabetes complications upon introduction of SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP1-receptor agonists in low- and middle-income countries: A microsimulation

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus, particularly type 2 diabetes, is a growing health concern in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The potential impact of newer diabetes medications, such as glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors, on insulin dosage and health outcomes in these settings is not well understood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a microsimulation model to estimate the impact of treating patients with type 2 diabetes who use insulin with GLP-1 receptor agonists or SGLT-2 inhibitors in LMICs. The model utilized data from the Global Health and Population Project on Access to Care for Cardiometabolic Diseases (HPACC) dataset, encompassing surveys from 79 countries and clinical trial data to estimate insulin dose reduction. We incorporated weight-based insulin dosing formulas and hazard ratios for severe hypoglycemia, cardiovascular and renal outcomes, side effects of new therapies, and mortality. The primary outcome was the change in insulin dosage, and secondary outcomes were disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost per 1,000 person-years by diabetes complication (micro- and macro-vascular). Our results indicate that the addition of GLP-1 receptor agonists or SGLT-2 inhibitors could reduce insulin dosage by 8.2 IU/day (IQR: 6.9, 9.5) and 5.3 IU/day (IQR: 4.5, 6.2), respectively. The median DALYs lost per 1,000 person-years decreased from 2.20 (IQR: 1.49, 4.02) to 1.01 (IQR: 0.61, 1.86) with GLP-1 receptor agonists and 1.25 (IQR: 0.81, 2.29) with SGLT-2 inhibitors. Primary benefits arose from weight loss, decreased cardiorenal disease, and decreased mortality, with smaller DALY benefits from the prevention of severe hypoglycemia. Key limitations include the inability to differentiate between type 1 and type 2 diabetes in some datasets and reliance on assumptions from clinical trials conducted primarily in high-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors for managing type 2 diabetes in LMICs could significantly reduce insulin dosage and associated health risks, leading to improved outcomes and reduced disability. These findings suggest that expanding access to these newer diabetes medications in LMICs could have substantial public health benefits.

Management of diabetes in people with advanced chronic kidney disease

Diabetes is the commonest cause of end stage kidney disease globally, accounting for almost 40% of new cases requiring renal replacement therapy. Management of diabetes in people with advanced kidney disease on renal replacement therapy is challenging due to some unique aspects of assessment and treatment in this group of patients. Standard glycaemic assessment using glycated haemoglobin may not be valid in such patients due to altered red blood cell turnover or iron/erythropoietin deficiency, leading to changed red blood cell longevity. Therefore, use of continuous glucose monitoring may be beneficial to enable more focussed glycaemic assessment and improved adjustment of therapy. People with advanced kidney disease may be at higher risk of hypoglycaemia due to a number of physiological mechanisms, and in addition, therapeutic options are limited in such patients due to lack of experience or license. Insulin therapy is the basis of treatment of people with diabetes with advanced kidney disease due to many other drugs classes being contraindicated. Targets for glycaemic control should be adjusted according to co-morbidity and frailty, and continuous glucose monitoring should be used in people on dialysis to ensure low risk of hypoglycaemia. Post-transplant diabetes is common amongst people undergoing solid organ transplantation and confers a greater risk of mortality and morbidity in kidney transplant recipients. It should be actively screened for and managed in the post-transplant setting.

Cardiovascular and non-renal complications of chronic kidney disease: Managing risk

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) currently affects approximately 850 million people globally and is continuing to increase in prevalence as well as in importance as a cause of death. The excess mortality related to CKD is mostly caused by an increase in cardiovascular disease. This includes atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease as many promoters of atherosclerosis, such as blood pressure, lipid levels and hypercoagulation, are increased in people with CKD. Diabetes is a leading cause of CKD contributing to the risk of CVD, and obesity is also increasingly prevalent. Management of these risk factors is therefore very important in CKD, and to reduce risk of CKD progression. Heart failure is also more prevalent in CKD and, again, many risk factors are shared. The concept of foundational pillars in the management of heart failure has been adapted to the treatment of CKD, with many organ-protective interventions, such renin-angiotensin system blockade, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibition and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonism, reducing the risk for mortality in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, but also for progression of CKD. Atrial fibrillation is also more common with CKD and affects the management of the former. In this review these non-renal complications of CKD are discussed, along with how the risk of these complications should be managed. Many new opportunities have demonstrated heart and kidney organ protection, but implementation is a challenge.

Temporal Trends in the Initiation of Dialysis Among Patients With Heart Failure With or Without Diabetes: A Nationwide Study From 2002 to 2016

BACKGROUND

The incidence and distribution of acute and chronic dialysis among patients with heart failure (HF), stratified by diabetes, remain uncertain. We hypothesized that with improved survival and rising comorbidities, the demand for dialysis would increase over time.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with incident HF, aged 18 to 100 years, between 2002 and 2016, were identified using Danish nationwide registers. Primary outcomes included acute and chronic dialysis initiation, HF-related hospitalization, and all-cause mortality. These outcomes were assessed in 2002 to 2006, 2007 to 2011, and 2012 to 2016, stratified by diabetes. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) per 1000 person-years and hazard ratios (HR) using multivariable Cox regression. Of 115 533 patients with HF, 2734 patients received acute dialysis and 1193 patients received chronic dialysis. The IR was 8.0 per 1000 and 3.5 per 1000 person-years for acute and chronic dialysis, respectively. Acute dialysis rates increased significantly among patients with diabetes over time, while no significant changes occurred in those without diabetes, chronic dialysis, HF-related hospitalization, or overall mortality. Diabetes was associated with significantly higher HRs of acute and chronic dialysis, respectively, compared with patients without diabetes (HR, 2.07 [95% CI, 1.80-2.39] and 2.93 [95% CI, 2.40-3.58] in 2002 to 2006; HR, 2.45 [95% CI, 2.14-2.80] and 2.86 [95% CI, 2.32-3.52] in 2007 to 2011; and 2.69 [95% CI, 2.33-3.10] and 3.30 [95% CI, 2.69-4.06] in 2012 to 2016).

CONCLUSIONS

The IR of acute and chronic dialysis remained low compared with HF-related hospitalizations and mortality. Acute dialysis rates increased significantly over time, contrasting no significant trends in other outcomes. Diabetes exhibited over 2-fold increased rates of the outcomes. These findings emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and renal care in patients with HF, especially with diabetes, to optimize outcomes and prevent adverse events.

Trends in the Incidence of End-Stage Kidney Disease in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes in Australia, 2010-2019

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Trends in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among people with diabetes may inform clinical management and public health strategies. We estimated trends in the incidence of ESKD among people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Australia from 2010-2019 and evaluated their associated factors.

STUDY DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

71,700 people with type 1 and 1,112,690 people with type 2 diabetes registered on the Australian National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS). We estimated the incidence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) via linkage to the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA) and the incidence of KRT or death from ESKD by linking the NDSS to the ANZDATA and the National Death Index for Australia.

PREDICTORS

Calendar time, sex, age, and duration of diabetes.

OUTCOME

Incidence of KRT and KRT or death from ESKD.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Incidence of ESKD, trends over time, and associations with factors related to these trends were modeled using Poisson regression stratified by diabetes type and sex.

RESULTS

The median duration of diabetes increased from 15.3 to 16.8 years in type 1 diabetes, and from 7.6 to 10.2 years in type 2 diabetes between 2010 and 2019. The incidence of KRT and KRT or death from ESKD did not significantly change over this time interval among people with type 1 diabetes. Conversely, the age-adjusted incidence of KRT and KRT or death from ESKD increased among males with type 2 diabetes (annual percent changes [APCs]: 2.52% [95% CI, 1.54 to -3.52] and 1.27% [95% CI, 0.53 2.03], respectively), with no significant change among females (0.67% [95% CI, -0.68 to 2.04] and 0.07% [95% CI, -0.81 to 0.96], respectively). After further adjustment for duration of diabetes, the incidence of ESKD fell between 2010 and 2019, with APCs of-0.09% (95% CI, -1.06 to 0.89) and-2.63% (95% CI, -3.96 to-1.27) for KRT and-0.97% (95% CI, -1.71 to-0.23) and-2.75% (95% CI, -3.62 to-1.87) for KRT or death from ESKD among males and females, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

NDSS only captures 80%-90% of people with diabetes; lack of clinical covariates limits understanding of trends.

CONCLUSIONS

While the age-adjusted incidence of ESKD increased for males and was stable for females over the last decade, after adjusting for increases in duration of diabetes the risk of developing ESKD has decreased for both males and females.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Previous studies showed an increase in new cases of kidney failure among people with type 2 diabetes, but more recent data have not been available. Here, we report trends in the rate of kidney failure for people with type 2 diabetes from 2010 to 2019 and showed that while more people with type 2 diabetes are developing kidney failure, accounting for the fact that they are also surviving longer (and therefore have a higher chance of kidney failure) the growth in this population is not caused by a higher risk of kidney failure. Nevertheless, more people are getting kidney failure than before, which will impact health care systems for years to come.

Risk of rapid progression to dialysis in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus with and without diabetes-related complications at diagnosis

Many adults with diabetes mellitus are unaware worldwide. The study objectives aimed to evaluate the risk of dialysis within 5 years of diagnosis between patients with newly diagnosed diabetes with and without diabetes-related complications. A retrospective longitudinal nationwide cohort study was conducted. Patients diagnosed with diabetes between 2005 and 2013 were followed up until 2018. They were categorized based on the presence or absence of complications, the number of complications, and the diabetes complications severity index (DCSI) scores. Dialysis outcomes were determined through the Registry of Catastrophic Illness from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Among the analyzed patients, 25.38% had complications at diagnosis. Patients with complications at diagnosis had a significantly higher risk of dialysis within 5 years (adjusted hazard ratio: 9.55, 95% confidence interval CI 9.02-10.11). Increasing DCSI scores and the number of complications were associated with higher dialysis risks. Patients with one complication had a 7.26-times higher risk (95% CI 6.83-7.71), while those with ≥ 3 complications had a 36.12-times higher risk (95% CI 32.28-40.41). In conclusion, newly diagnosed diabetes patients with complications face an increased risk of dialysis within 5 years. The severity and number of complications are directly linked to the risk of dialysis within this timeframe.

Treatment With Small Molecule Inhibitors of Advanced Glycation End-Products Formation and Advanced Glycation End-Products-Mediated Collagen Cross-Linking Promotes Experimental Aortic Aneurysm Progression in Diabetic Mice

Background Although diabetes attenuates abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), the mechanisms by which diabetes suppresses AAAs remain incompletely understood. Accumulation of advanced glycation end- (AGEs) reduces extracellular matrix (ECM) degradation in diabetes. Because ECM degradation is critical for AAA pathogenesis, we investigated whether AGEs mediate experimental AAA suppression in diabetes by blocking AGE formation or disrupting AGE-ECM cross-linking using small molecule inhibitors. Methods and Results Male C57BL/6J mice were treated with streptozotocin and intra-aortic elastase infusion to induce diabetes and experimental AAAs, respectively. Aminoguanidine (AGE formation inhibitor, 200 mg/kg), alagebrium (AGE-ECM cross-linking disrupter, 20 mg/kg), or vehicle was administered daily to mice from the last day following streptozotocin injection. AAAs were assessed via serial aortic diameter measurements, histopathology, and in vitro medial elastolysis assays. Treatment with aminoguanidine, not alagebrium, diminished AGEs in diabetic AAAs. Treatment with both inhibitors enhanced aortic enlargement in diabetic mice as compared with vehicle treatment. Neither enhanced AAA enlargement in nondiabetic mice. AAA enhancement in diabetic mice by aminoguanidine or alagebrium treatment promoted elastin degradation, smooth muscle cell depletion, mural macrophage accumulation, and neoangiogenesis without affecting matrix metalloproteinases, C-C motif chemokine ligand 2, or serum glucose concentration. Additionally, treatment with both inhibitors reversed suppression of diabetic aortic medial elastolysis by porcine pancreatic elastase in vitro. Conclusions Inhibiting AGE formation or AGE-ECM cross-linking enhances experimental AAAs in diabetes. These findings support the hypothesis that AGEs attenuate experimental AAAs in diabetes. These findings underscore the potential translational value of enhanced ECM cross-linking as an inhibitory strategy for early AAA disease.

The association of attained age, age at diagnosis, and duration of type 2 diabetes with the long-term risk for major diabetes-related complications

AIM

We evaluated the associations of age and duration of type 2 diabetes with major diabetes-related complications.

METHODS

We included 1.1 million people with type 2 diabetes from the Australian diabetes registry, followed from 2010 to 2019. We estimated the incidence of hospitalization or death from myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure (HF), and hospitalisation for lower extremity amputation (LEA); end-stage kidney disease (ESKD; kidney replacement therapy or death from ESKD); and all-cause mortality. Poisson regression was used to model incidence by attained age, age at diabetes diagnosis, and duration of diabetes.

RESULTS

Risk for complications increased exponentially with diabetes duration. Effects of attained age differed for each complication: age was a strong risk factor for MI, stroke, HF, and mortality, while diabetes duration, not age, was the predominant determinant of LEA and ESKD. At a given age, a 10-year longer diabetes duration was associated with a 1.1-1.5-fold increased risk of stroke and mortality, a 1.5-2.0-fold increased risk of MI and HF, and a 2-4-fold increased risk of LEA and ESKD.

CONCLUSIONS

Duration of diabetes is a stronger risk factor for ESKD and LEA than it is for cardiovascular disease or mortality.

Hospital treatment costs associated with incident complications in patients with type 2 diabetes—real-world study based on electronic patient information systems

Background

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its complications cause a significant public health and economic challenge. To enable the optimal resource allocation across different prevention and treatment policies for the management of T2D-related complications, detailed cost estimates related to the complications of T2D are needed. Therefore, the objective of the study was to provide reliable and sufficiently detailed real-world estimates of costs associated with different T2D complications in a Finnish university hospital setting.

Methods

A cohort of T2D patients living in the catchment area of a university hospital during 2012 and 2016 was identified from the comprehensive national FinDM diabetes database for longitudinal assessment of T2D associated complication treatment costs. Data on patient-level events were extracted from the FinDM data and complemented with all accountable services and related detailed costing data gathered from the university hospital’s electronic patient information systems by using unique personal identity codes. Patients were screened for their first diagnoses of complications using the same national quality registry definitions as in the FinDM database. Multivariable gamma regression model with a log link function was applied to study the association between baseline factors and complication costs. In addition, an interactive online tool was developed to create predicted costs for complication costs with selected baseline factors.

Results

A total of 27 255 prevalent and incident patients with T2D were identified from the national FinDM register. Finally, a total of 16 148 complication episodes for 7 895 patients were included in the cost analyses. The mean estimated one-year hospital treatment costs of T2D-related complication varied from 6 184 to 24 507 euros per complication. Regression analyses showed that coexisting conditions are significantly associated with initial and recurrent complication costs.

Conclusions

The study shows updated Finnish cost estimates and their main cost drivers for T2D-related complications treated in the university hospital setting. The results of our study highlight the significance of guideline implementation, effective preventive treatments for T2D, as well as the importance of treatment adherence to avoid these costly complications.

Impact of diabetes mellitus on the outcomes of subjects with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: A nationwide cohort study

AIMS

Diabetes mellitus (DM) often coexists in elderly hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients; however, its impact on clinical outcomes is unclear.

METHODS

We compared clinical outcomes according to the presence of DM in a nationwide HCM cohort.

RESULTS

In 9,883 HCM subjects (mean age 58.5 ± 13.1, men 71.7%), 1,327 (13.4%) had DM. During follow-up (mean 5.9 ± 2.5 years), end-stage renal disease (ESRD) progression, coronary events (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization), heart failure (HF), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality occurred in 80 (0.8%), 365 (3.7%), 1,558 (15.8%), 354 (3.6%), and 877 (8.9%) subjects, respectively. DM HCM subjects had significantly higher risks of ESRD progression (HR 3.49, 95% CI 2.20-5.54) and HF (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.32) compared to non-DM HCM subjects, independent of age, sex, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, and other comorbidities. There was a tendency for greater risk of ESRD progression, HF, and all-cause death in subjects with more advanced stage of DM (p-for-trend < 0.05 for all). Insulin-treated DM was associated with the highest risk.

CONCLUSIONS

DM HCM subjects have higher risk of ESRD progression and HF. Considering the extended life expectancy of HCM and increasing number of elderly HCM subjects, active surveillance and management of DM-related outcomes should be highlighted.

Derivation and Validation of a Prediction Model of End-Stage Renal Disease in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Based on a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a model for predicting the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

The derivation cohort was from a meta-analysis. Statistically significant risk factors were extracted and combined to the corresponding risk ratio (RR) to establish a risk assessment model for ESRD in type 2 diabetes. All risk factors were scored according to their weightings to establish the prediction model. Model performance is evaluated using external validation cohorts. The outcome was the occurrence of ESRD defined as eGFR<15 ml min^-1 1.73 m^-2 or received kidney replacement therapy (dialysis or transplantation).

RESULTS

A total of 1,167,317 patients with type 2 diabetes were included in our meta-analysis, with a cumulative incidence of approximately 1.1%. The final risk factors of the prediction model included age, sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus (DM) duration, systolic blood pressure (SBP), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and triglyceride (TG). All risk factors were scored according to their weightings, with the highest score being 36.5. External verification showed that the model has good discrimination, AUC=0.807(95%CI 0.753-0.861). The best cutoff value is 16 points, with the sensitivity and specificity given by 85.33% and 60.45%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The study established a simple risk assessment model including 8 routinely available clinical parameters for predicting the risk of ESRD in type 2 diabetes.

Predictive Risk Models to Identify Patients at High-Risk for Severe Clinical Outcomes With Chronic Kidney Disease and Type 2 Diabetes

Introduction/Objective:

Predictive risk models identifying patients at high risk for specific outcomes may provide valuable insights to providers and payers regarding points of intervention and modifiable factors. The goal of our study was to build predictive risk models to identify patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at high risk for progression to end stage kidney disease (ESKD), mortality, and hospitalization for cardiovascular disease (CVD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), and heart failure (HF).

Methods:

This was a retrospective observational cohort study utilizing administrative claims data in patients with CKD (stage 3-4) and T2D aged 65 to 89 years enrolled in a Medicare Advantage Drug Prescription plan offered by Humana Inc. between 1/1/2012 and 12/31/2017. Patients were enrolled ≥1 year pre-index and followed for outcomes, including hospitalization for CVD, CeVD and HF, ESKD, and mortality, 2 years post-index. Pre-index characteristics comprising demographic, comorbidities, laboratory values, and treatment (T2D and cardiovascular) were evaluated and included in the models. LASSO technique was used to identify predictors to be retained in the final models followed by logistic regression to generate parameter estimates and model performance statistics. Inverse probability censoring weighting was used to account for varying follow-up time.

Results:

We identified 169 876 patients for inclusion. Declining estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) increased the risk of hospitalization for CVD (38.6%-61.8%) and HF (2-3 times) for patients with eGFR 15 to 29 mL/min/1.73 m² compared to patients with eGFR 50 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m². Patients with urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥300 mg/g had greater chance for hospitalization for CVD (2.0 times) and HF (4.9 times), progression to ESKD (2.9 times) and all-cause mortality (2.4 times) than patients with UACR <30 mg/g. Elevated hemoglobin A1c (≥8%) increased the chances for hospitalization for CVD (21.3%), CeVD (45.4%), and death (20.6%). Among comorbidities, history of HF increased the risk for ESKD, mortality, and hospitalization for CVD, CeVD, and HF.

Conclusions:

The predictive models developed in this study could potentially be used as decision support tools for physicians and payers, and the risk scores from these models can be applied to future outcomes studies focused on patients with T2D and CKD.

Fasting Glucose Variability as a Risk Indicator for End-Stage Kidney Disease in Patients with Diabetes: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Given the fact that diabetes remains a leading cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), multi-aspect approaches anticipating the risk for ESKD and timely correction are crucial. We investigated whether fasting glucose variability (FGV) could anticipate the development of ESKD and identify the population prone to the harmful effects of GV. We included 777,192 Koreans with diabetes who had undergone health examinations more than three times in 2005-2010. We evaluated the risk of the first diagnosis of ESKD until 2017, according to the quartile of variability independent of the mean (VIM) of FG using multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analyses. During the 8-year follow-up, a total of 7290 incidents of ESKD were found. Subjects in the FG VIM quartile 4 had a 27% higher risk for ESKD compared to quartile 1, with adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and the characteristics of diabetes. This effect was more distinct in patients aged < 65 years; those with a long duration of diabetes; the presence of hypertension or dyslipidemia; and prescribed angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, metformin, sulfonylurea, α-glucosidase inhibitors, and insulin. In contrast, the relationship between baseline FG status and ESKD risk showed a U-shaped association. FGV is an independent risk factor for kidney failure regardless of FG.

Self-efficacy remains a vital factor in reducing the risk of dialysis in type 2 diabetes care

Studies have provided promising outcomes of the pay-for-performance (P4P) program or with good continuity of care levels in diabetes control.We investigate the different exposures in continuity of care (COC) with their providers and those who participate in the P4P program and its effects on the risk of diabetes diabetic nephropathy in the future.We obtained COC and P4P information from the annual database, to which we applied a hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) in 3 levels adjusted to account for other covariates as well as the effects of hospital clustering and accumulating time.Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in 2003At the individual level, those with a higher Diabetes Complications Severity Index (DCSI) score have a higher likelihood of diabetic nephropathy than those with a lower DCSI (OR, 1.46), whereas contrasting results were obtained for the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (odds ratio[OR], 0.88). Patients who visited family physicians, endocrinologists, and gastroenterologists showed a lower likelihood of diabetic nephropathy (OR, 0.664, 0.683, and 0.641, respectively), whereas those who continued to visit neurologists showed an increased risk of diabetic nephropathy by 4 folds. At the hospital level, patients with diabetes visiting primary care clinics had a lower risk of diabetic nephropathy with an OR of 0.584 than those visiting hospitals of other higher levels. Regarding the repeat time level, the patients who had a higher COC score and participated in the P4P program had a reduced diabetic nephropathy risk with an OR of 0.339 and 0.775, respectively.Diabetes control necessitates long-term care involving the patients' healthcare providers for the management of their conditions to reduce the risk of diabetic nephropathy. Indeed, most contributing factors are related to patients, but we cannot eliminate the optimal outcomes related to good relationships with healthcare providers and participation in the P4P program.

Management of Kidney Failure in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus: What Are the Best Options?

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the most frequent cause of kidney failure (KF). There are large variations in the incidence rates of kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Late referral to nephrology services has been associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. In many countries, when patients reach severely reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR), they are managed by multidisciplinary teams led by nephrologists. In these clinics, efforts will continue to halt chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression and to prevent cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. In patients with diabetes and severely reduced GFR and KF, treating hyperglycemia is a challenge, since some drugs are contraindicated and most of them require dose adjustments. Even more, a decision-making process will help in deciding whether the patient would prefer comprehensive conservative care or KRT. On many occasions, this decision will be conditioned by diabetes mellitus itself. Effective education should cover the necessary information for the patient and family to answer these questions: 1. Should I go for KRT or not? 2. If the answer is KRT, dialysis and/or transplantation? 3. Dialysis at home or in center? 4. If dialysis at home, peritoneal dialysis or home hemodialysis? 5. If transplantation is desired, discuss the options of whether the donation would be from a living or deceased donor. This review addresses the determinant factors with an impact on DKD, aiming to shed light on the specific needs that arise in the management and recommendations on how to achieve a comprehensive approach to the diabetic patient with chronic kidney disease.

Prediction models and nomograms for 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease in Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care

AIMS

To develop and validate 10-year risk prediction models, nomograms and charts for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in primary care, in order to guide individualized treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a 10-year population-based observational cohort study. A total of 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients without history of cardiovascular disease or ESRD who were managed in public primary care clinics in 2008 were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of these patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific ESRD risk prediction models using Cox regressions. The validity and accuracy of the models were tested on the remaining third of patients using Harrell's C-index. We selected variables based on their clinical and statistical importance to construct the nomograms and charts.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 9.75 years. The cumulative incidence of ESRD was 6.0% (men: 6.1%, women: 5.9%). Age, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure (SBP), SBP variability, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), HbA1c variability, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were significant predictors for both sexes. Smoking and total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio were additional significant predictors for men and women, respectively. The models showed Harrell's C-statistics of 0.889/0.889 (women/men). Age, eGFR, UACR, SBP and HbA1c were selected for both sexes to develop nomograms and charts.

CONCLUSIONS

Using routinely available variables, the 10-year ESRD risk of Chinese T2DM patients in primary care can be predicted with approximately 90% accuracy. We have developed different tools to facilitate routine ESRD risk prediction in primary care, so that individualized care can be provided to prevent or delay ESRD in T2DM patients.

Worldwide Epidemiology of Diabetes-Related End-Stage Renal Disease, 2000-2015

OBJECTIVE

The annual risk among patients with diabetes of reaching end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is largely unknown worldwide. This study aimed to compare the incidence of diabetes-related ESRD by creating a global atlas during 2000-2015.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The annual incidence of ESRD among patients with diabetes was calculated as the quotient of the number of incident ESRD patients with diabetes divided by the total number of patients with diabetes after subtraction of the number with existing ESRD. The estimated ESRD prevalence and annual incidence were validated with use of the data provided by Fresenius Medical Care, Germany, and previously reported data, respectively.

RESULTS

Data were obtained from 142 countries, covering 97.3% of the world population. The global percentage of the prevalent ESRD patients with diabetes increased from 19.0% in 2000 to 29.7% in 2015 worldwide, while the percentage of incident ESRD patients due to diabetes increased from 22.1% to 31.3%. The global annual incidence of ESRD among patients with diabetes increased from 375.8 to 1,016.0/million with diabetes during 2000-2015. The highest average rates were observed in the Western Pacific Region. Comparatively, the rates of incident ESRD among European patients with diabetes ranged from one-half (309.2 vs. 544.6) to one-third (419.4 vs. 1,245.2) of the rates of the Western Pacific population during 2000-2015.

CONCLUSIONS

Great and nonrandom geographic variation in the annual rates among patients with diabetes of reaching ESRD suggests that distinct health care, environmental, and/or genetic factors contribute to the progression of diabetic kidney disease. Measures to prevent and treat diabetes-related ESRD require better patient susceptibility stratification.

Intra-individual variability of eGFR trajectories in early diabetic kidney disease and lack of performance of prognostic biomarkers

Studies reporting on biomarkers aiming to predict adverse renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease (DKD) conventionally define a surrogate endpoint either as a percentage of decrease of eGFR (e.g. ≥ 30%) or an absolute decline (e.g. ≥ 5 ml/min/year). The application of those study results in clinical practise however relies on the assumption of a linear and intra-individually stable progression of DKD. We studied 860 patients of the PROVALID study and 178 of an independent population with a relatively preserved eGFR at baseline and at least 5 years of follow up. Individuals with a detrimental prognosis were identified using various thresholds of a percentage or absolute decline of eGFR after each year of follow up. Next, we determined how many of the patients met the same criteria at other points in time. Interindividual eGFR decline was highly variable but in addition intra-individual eGFR trajectories also were frequently non-linear. For example, of all subjects reaching an endpoint defined as a decrease of eGFR by ≥ 30% between baseline and 3 years of follow up, only 60.3 and 45.2% lost at least the same amount between baseline and year 4 or 5. The results were similar when only patients on stable medication or subpopulations based on baseline eGFR or albuminuria status were analyzed or an eGFR decline of ≥ 5 ml/min/1.73m²/year was used. Identification of reliable biomarkers predicting adverse prognosis is a strong clinical need given the large interindividual variability of DKD progression. However, it is conceptually challenging in early DKD because of non-linear intra-individual eGFR trajectories. As a result, the performance of a prognostic biomarker may be accurate after a specific time of follow-up in a single population only.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus alters cardiac mitochondrial content and function in a non-obese mice model

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with an increase of premature appearance of several disorders such as cardiac complications. Thus, we test the hypothesis that a combination of a high fat diet (HFD) and low doses of streptozotocin (STZ) recapitulate a suitable mice model of T2DM to study the cardiac mitochondrial disturbances induced by this disease. Animals were divided in 2 groups: the T2DM group was given a HFD and injected with 2 low doses of STZ, while the CNTRL group was given a standard chow and a buffer solution. The combination of HFD and STZ recapitulate the T2DM metabolic profile showing higher blood glucose levels in T2DM mice when compared to CNTRL, and also, insulin resistance. The kidney structure/function was preserved. Regarding cardiac mitochondrial function, in all phosphorylative states, the cardiac mitochondria from T2DM mice presented reduced oxygen fluxes when compared to CNTRL mice. Also, mitochondria from T2DM mice showed decreased citrate synthase activity and lower protein content of mitochondrial complexes. Our results show that in this non-obese T2DM model, which recapitulates the classical metabolic alterations, mitochondrial function is impaired and provides a useful model to deepen study the mechanisms underlying these alterations.

The Association Between Age of Onset of Type 2 Diabetes and the Long-term Risk of End-Stage Kidney Disease: A National Registry Study

OBJECTIVE

The long-term risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in type 2 diabetes is poorly described, as is the effect that younger age of diabetes onset has on this risk. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the effect of age of onset on the cumulative incidence of ESKD from onset of type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study included 1,113,201 people with type 2 diabetes registered on the Australian National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS) followed from 2002 until 2013. The NDSS was linked to the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry and the Australian National Death Index.

RESULTS

Between 2002 and 2013, there were 7,592 incident cases of ESKD during 7,839,075 person-years of follow-up. In the first 10-15 years following the onset of diabetes, the incidence of ESKD was highest in those with an older age of onset of diabetes, whereas over longer durations of diabetes, the incidence of ESKD became higher in those with younger-onset diabetes. After 40 years of diabetes, the cumulative incidence of ESKD was 11.8% and 9.3% in those diagnosed with diabetes at ages 10-29 and 30-39 years, respectively. When death from ESKD without renal replacement therapy was included, the incidence of ESKD remained higher in older-onset diabetes for the initial 20 years, with no clear effect of age thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term risk of ESKD in type 2 diabetes is high, which disproportionately affects those with younger onset of diabetes because they are more likely to survive to longer diabetes durations.

Diabetic Kidney Disease: Challenges, Advances, and Opportunities

BACKGROUND

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the most common cause of the end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Regardless of intensive treatments with hyperglycemic control, blood pressure control, and the use of renin-angiotensin system blockades, the prevalence of DKD remains high. Recent studies suggest that the spectrum of DKD has been changed and many progresses have been made to develop new treatments for DKD. Therefore, it is time to perform a systemic review on the new developments in the field of DKD.

SUMMARY

Although the classic clinical presentation of DKD is characterized by a slow progression from microalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria and by a hyperfiltration at the early stage and progressive decline of renal function at the late stage, recent epidemiological studies suggest that DKD patients have a variety of clinical presentations and progression rates to ESRD. Some DKD patients have a decline in renal function without albuminuria but display prominent vascular and interstitial fibrosis on renal histology. DKD patients are more susceptible to acute kidney injury, which might contribute to the interstitial fibrosis. A large portion of type 2 diabetic patients with albuminuria could have overlapping nondiabetic glomerular disease, and therefore, kidney biopsy is required for differential diagnosis for these patients. Only a small portion of DKD patients eventually progress to end-stage renal failure. However, we do not have sensitive and specific biomarkers to identify these high-risk patients. Genetic factors that have a strong association with DKD progression have not been identified yet. A combination of circulating tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR)1, TNFR2, and kidney injury molecular 1 provides predictive value for DKD progression. Artificial intelligence could enhance the predictive values for DKD progression by combining the clinical parameters and biological markers. Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors should be added to the new standard care of DKD patients. Several promising new drugs are in clinical trials.

KEY MESSAGES

Over last years, our understanding of DKD has been much improved and new treatments to halt the progression of DKD are coming. However, better diagnostic tools, predictive markers, and treatment options are still urgently needed to help us to better manage these patients with this detrimental disease.

Holistic review of people with diabetes and chronic kidney disease reveals important multimorbidity and unmet clinical need: The ENHIDE diabetes renal telehealth pilot study

Diabetes and kidney disease commonly coexist and management is complex given frequent additional comorbidity. The East and North Herts Institute of Diabetes and Endocrinology (ENHIDE) renal diabetes telehealth project examined the feasibility of data extraction from primary care records for virtual consultant review as a prelude to a telehealth case-based discussion with primary care teams. Data extraction identified 2,356 cases from 16 general practices, of which 14 took part in a skype telehealth case-based discussion session. The service was well received by primary care as a workable means of delivering patient care. In addition, significant unmet clinical needs were identified with opportunities to empower patient self-management of acute metabolic and foot issues, and better coordination of care between specialist diabetes and renal teams. The increasing clinical burden in all care settings and the commitment in the NHS plan for wider use of digital healthcare and streamlining of outpatient care highlight the need for service reconfiguration.