Estimated global resources needed to attain international malaria control goals

An Automated Microscopic Malaria Parasite Detection System Using Digital Image Analysis

Rapid diagnosis and parasitemia measurement is crucial for management of malaria. Microscopic examination of peripheral blood (PB) smears is the gold standard for malaria detection. However, this method is labor-intensive. Here, we aimed to develop a completely automated microscopic system for malaria detection and parasitemia measurement. The automated system comprises a microscope, plastic chip, fluorescent dye, and an image analysis program. Analytical performance was evaluated regarding linearity, precision, and limit of detection and was compared with that of conventional microscopic PB smear examination and flow cytometry. The automated microscopic malaria parasite detection system showed a high degree of linearity for Plasmodium falciparum culture (R² = 0.958, p = 0.005) and Plasmodium vivax infected samples (R² = 0.931, p = 0.008). Precision was defined as the %CV of the assay results at each level of parasitemia and the %CV value for our system was lower than that for microscopic examination for all densities of parasitemia. The limit of detection analysis showed 95% probability for parasite detection was 0.00066112%, and a high correlation was observed among all three methods. The sensitivity and specificity of the system was both 100% (n = 21/21) and 100% (n = 50/50), respectively, and the system correctly identified all P. vivax and P. falciparum samples. The automated microscopic malaria parasite detection system offers several advantages over conventional microscopy for rapid diagnosis and parasite density monitoring of malaria.

Competing interests, clashing ideas and institutionalizing influence: insights into the political economy of malaria control from seven African countries

This article explores how malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa is shaped in important ways by political and economic considerations within the contexts of aid-recipient nations and the global health community. Malaria control is often assumed to be a technically driven exercise: the remit of public health experts and epidemiologists who utilize available data to select the most effective package of activities given available resources. Yet research conducted with national and international stakeholders shows how the realities of malaria control decision-making are often more nuanced. Hegemonic ideas and interests of global actors, as well as the national and global institutional arrangements through which malaria control is funded and implemented, can all influence how national actors respond to malaria. Results from qualitative interviews in seven malaria-endemic countries indicate that malaria decision-making is constrained or directed by multiple competing objectives, including a need to balance overarching global goals with local realities, as well as a need for National Malaria Control Programmes to manage and coordinate a range of non-state stakeholders who may divide up regions and tasks within countries. Finally, beyond the influence that political and economic concerns have over programmatic decisions and action, our analysis further finds that malaria control efforts have institutionalized systems, structures and processes that may have implications for local capacity development.

Resource Allocation for Epidemic Control Across Multiple Sub-populations

The number of pathogenic threats to plant, animal and human health is increasing. Controlling the spread of such threats is costly and often resources are limited. A key challenge facing decision makers is how to allocate resources to control the different threats in order to achieve the least amount of damage from the collective impact. In this paper we consider the allocation of limited resources across n independent target populations to treat pathogens whose spread is modelled using the susceptible–infected–susceptible model. Using mathematical analysis of the systems dynamics, we show that for effective disease control, with a limited budget, treatment should be focused on a subset of populations, rather than attempting to treat all populations less intensively. The choice of populations to treat can be approximated by a knapsack-type problem. We show that the knapsack closely approximates the exact optimum and greatly outperforms a number of simpler strategies. A key advantage of the knapsack approximation is that it provides insight into the way in which the economic and epidemiological dynamics affect the optimal allocation of resources. In particular using the knapsack approximation to apportion control takes into account two important aspects of the dynamics: the indirect interaction between the populations due to the shared pool of limited resources and the dependence on the initial conditions.

Computer Vision Malaria Diagnostic Systems-Progress and Prospects

Accurate malaria diagnosis is critical to prevent malaria fatalities, curb overuse of antimalarial drugs, and promote appropriate management of other causes of fever. While several diagnostic tests exist, the need for a rapid and highly accurate malaria assay remains. Microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests are the main diagnostic modalities available, yet they can demonstrate poor performance and accuracy. Automated microscopy platforms have the potential to significantly improve and standardize malaria diagnosis. Based on image recognition and machine learning algorithms, these systems maintain the benefits of light microscopy and provide improvements such as quicker scanning time, greater scanning area, and increased consistency brought by automation. While these applications have been in development for over a decade, recently several commercial platforms have emerged. In this review, we discuss the most advanced computer vision malaria diagnostic technologies and investigate several of their features which are central to field use. Additionally, we discuss the technological and policy barriers to implementing these technologies in low-resource settings world-wide.

Global investment targets for malaria control and elimination between 2016 and 2030

Background

Access to malaria control interventions falls short of universal health coverage. The Global Technical Strategy for malaria targets at least 90% reduction in case incidence and mortality rates, and elimination in 35 countries by 2030. The potential to reach these targets will be determined in part by investments in malaria. This study estimates the financing required for malaria control and elimination over the 2016-2030 period.

Methods

A mathematical transmission model was used to explore the impact of increasing intervention coverage on burden and costs. The cost analysis took a public provider perspective covering all 97 malaria endemic countries and territories in 2015. All control interventions currently recommended by the WHO were considered. Cost data were sourced from procurement databases, the peer-reviewed literature, national malaria strategic plans, the WHO-CHOICE project and key informant interviews.

Results

Annual investments of $6.4 billion (95% uncertainty interval (UI $4.5-$9.0 billion)) by 2020, $7.7 billion (95% UI $5.4-$10.9 billion) by 2025 and $8.7 billion (95% UI $6.0-$12.3 billion) by 2030 will be required to reach the targets set in the Global Technical Strategy. These are equivalent to annual investment per person at risk of malaria of US$3.90 by 2020, US$4.30 by 2025 and US$4.40 by 2030, compared with US$2.30 if interventions were sustained at current coverage levels. The 20 countries with the highest burden in 2015 will require 88% of the total investment.

Conclusions

Given the challenges in increasing domestic and international funding, the efficient use of currently available resources should be a priority.

Evaluation of the Parasight Platform for Malaria Diagnosis

The World Health Organization estimates that nearly 500 million malaria tests are performed annually. While microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are the main diagnostic approaches, no single method is inexpensive, rapid, and highly accurate. Two recent studies from our group have demonstrated a prototype computer vision platform that meets those needs. Here we present the results from two clinical studies on the commercially available version of this technology, the Sight Diagnostics Parasight platform, which provides malaria diagnosis, species identification, and parasite quantification. We conducted a multisite trial in Chennai, India (Apollo Hospital [n = 205]), and Nairobi, Kenya (Aga Khan University Hospital [n = 263]), in which we compared the device to microscopy, RDTs, and PCR. For identification of malaria, the device performed similarly well in both contexts (sensitivity of 99% and specificity of 100% at the Indian site and sensitivity of 99.3% and specificity of 98.9% at the Kenyan site, compared to PCR). For species identification, the device correctly identified 100% of samples with Plasmodium vivax and 100% of samples with Plasmodium falciparum in India and 100% of samples with P. vivax and 96.1% of samples with P. falciparum in Kenya, compared to PCR. Lastly, comparisons of the device parasite counts with those of trained microscopists produced average Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.84 at the Indian site and 0.85 at the Kenyan site.

The economics of malaria control and elimination: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Declining donor funding and competing health priorities threaten the sustainability of malaria programmes. Elucidating the cost and benefits of continued investments in malaria could encourage sustained political and financial commitments. The evidence, although available, remains disparate. This paper reviews the existing literature on the economic and financial cost and return of malaria control, elimination and eradication.

METHODS

A review of articles that were published on or before September 2014 on the cost and benefits of malaria control and elimination was performed. Studies were classified based on their scope and were analysed according to two major categories: cost of malaria control and elimination to a health system, and cost-benefit studies. Only studies involving more than two control or elimination interventions were included. Outcomes of interest were total programmatic cost, cost per capita, and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs). All costs were converted to 2013 US$ for standardization.

RESULTS

Of the 6425 articles identified, 54 studies were included in this review. Twenty-two were focused on elimination or eradication while 32 focused on intensive control. Forty-eight per cent of studies included in this review were published on or after 2000. Overall, the annual per capita cost of malaria control to a health system ranged from $0.11 to $39.06 (median: $2.21) while that for malaria elimination ranged from $0.18 to $27 (median: $3.00). BCRs of investing in malaria control and elimination ranged from 2.4 to over 145.

CONCLUSION

Overall, investments needed for malaria control and elimination varied greatly amongst the various countries and contexts. In most cases, the cost of elimination was greater than the cost of control. At the same time, the benefits of investing in malaria greatly outweighed the costs. While the cost of elimination in most cases was greater than the cost of control, the benefits greatly outweighed the cost. Information from this review provides guidance to national malaria programmes on the cost and benefits of malaria elimination in the absence of data. Importantly, the review highlights the need for more robust economic analyses using standard inputs and methods to strengthen the evidence needed for sustained financing for malaria elimination.

Diarylheptanoids Rich Fraction of Alnus nepalensis Attenuates Malaria Pathogenesis: In-vitro and In-vivo Study

Diarylheptanoids from Alnus nepalensis leaves have been reported for promising activity against filariasis, a mosquito-borne disease, and this has prompted us to investigate its anti-malarial and safety profile using in-vitro and in-vivo bioassays. A. nepalensis leaf extracts were tested in-vitro against chloroquine-sensitive Plasmodium falciparum NF54 by measuring the parasite specific lactate dehydrogenase activity. Among all, the chloroform extract (ANC) has shown promising anti-plasmodial activity (IC50 8.06 ± 0.26 µg/mL). HPLC analysis of ANC showed the presence of diarylheptanoids. Efficacy and safety of ANC were further validated in in-vivo system using Plasmodium berghei-induced malaria model and acute oral toxicity in mice. Malaria was induced by intra-peritoneal injection of P. berghei infected red blood cells to the female Balb/c mice. ANC was administered orally at doses of 100 and 300 mg/kg/day following Peter's 4 day suppression test. Oral administration of ANC showed significant reduction of parasitaemia and increase in mean survival time. It also attributed to inhibition of the parasite induced pro-inflammatory cytokines as well as afford to significant increase in the blood glucose and haemoglobin level when compared with vehicle-treated infected mice. In-vivo safety evaluation study revealed that ANC is non-toxic at higher concentration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Identifying barriers in the malaria control policymaking process in East Africa: insights from stakeholders and a structured literature review

BACKGROUND

The complexity of malaria and public health policy responses presents social, financial, cultural, and institutional barriers to policymaking at multiple stages in the policy process. These barriers reduce the effectiveness of health policy in achieving national goals.

METHODS

We conducted a structured literature review to characterize malaria policy barriers, and we engaged stakeholders through surveys and workshops in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. We compared common barriers presented in the scientific literature to barriers reported by malaria policy stakeholders.

RESULTS

The barriers identified in the structured literature review differ from those described in policymaker surveys. The malaria policy literature emphasizes barriers in the implementation stage of policymaking such as those posed by health systems and specific intervention tools. Stakeholder responses placed greater emphasis on the political nature of policymaking, the disconnect between research and policymaking, and the need for better intersectoral collaboration.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying barriers to effective malaria control activities provides opportunities to improve health and other outcomes. Such barriers can occur at multiple stages and scales. Employing a stakeholder - designed decision tool framework has the potential to improve existing policies and ultimately the functioning of malaria related institutions. Furthermore, improved coordination between malaria research and policymaking would improve the quality and efficiency of interventions leading to better population health.

Costs of eliminating malaria and the impact of the global fund in 34 countries

Background

International financing for malaria increased more than 18-fold between 2000 and 2011; the largest source came from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). Countries have made substantial progress, but achieving elimination requires sustained finances to interrupt transmission and prevent reintroduction. Since 2011, global financing for malaria has declined, fueling concerns that further progress will be impeded, especially for current malaria-eliminating countries that may face resurgent malaria if programs are disrupted.

Objectives

This study aims to 1) assess past total and Global Fund funding to the 34 current malaria-eliminating countries, and 2) estimate their future funding needs to achieve malaria elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030.

Methods

Historical funding is assessed against trends in country-level malaria annual parasite incidences (APIs) and income per capita. Following Kizewski et al. (2007), program costs to eliminate malaria and prevent reintroduction through 2030 are estimated using a deterministic model. The cost parameters are tailored to a package of interventions aimed at malaria elimination and prevention of reintroduction.

Results

The majority of Global Fund-supported countries experiencing increases in total funding from 2005 to 2010 coincided with reductions in malaria APIs and also overall GNI per capita average annual growth. The total amount of projected funding needed for the current malaria-eliminating countries to achieve elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030 is approximately US$8.5 billion, or about $1.84 per person at risk per year (PPY) (ranging from $2.51 PPY in 2014 to $1.43 PPY in 2030).

Conclusions

Although external donor funding, particularly from the Global Fund, has been key for many malaria-eliminating countries, sustained and sufficient financing is critical for furthering global malaria elimination. Projected cost estimates for elimination provide policymakers with an indication of the level of financial resources that should be mobilized to achieve malaria elimination goals.

In vivo antimalarial efficacy of acetogenins, alkaloids and flavonoids enriched fractions from Annona crassiflora Mart

Annona crassiflora and Annonaceae plants are known to be used to treat malaria by traditional healers. In this work, the antimalarial efficacy of different fractions of A. crassiflora, particularly acetogenin, alkaloids and flavonoid-rich fractions, was determined in vivo using Plasmodium berghei-infected mice model and toxicity was accessed by brine shrimp assay. The A. crassiflora fractions were administered at doses of 12.5 mg/kg/day in a 4-day test protocol. The results showed that some fractions from woods were rich in acetogenins, alkaloids and terpenes, and other fractions from leaves were rich in alkaloids and flavonoids. The parasitaemia was significantly (p < 0.05, p < 0.001) reduced (57-75%) with flavonoid and alkaloid-rich leaf fractions, which also increased mean survival time of mice after treatment. Our results confirm the usage of this plant in folk medicine as an antimalarial remedy.

Modulation of cerebral malaria by curcumin as an adjunctive therapy

Cerebral malaria is the most severe and rapidly fatal neurological complication of Plasmodium falciparum infection and responsible for more than two million deaths annually. The current therapy is inadequate in terms of reducing mortality or post-treatment symptoms such as neurological and cognitive deficits. The pathophysiology of cerebral malaria is quite complex and offers a variety of targets which remain to be exploited for better therapeutic outcome. The present review discusses on the pathophysiology of cerebral malaria with particular emphasis on scope and promises of curcumin as an adjunctive therapy to improve survival and overcome neurological deficits.

Exploring the impact of targeted distribution of free bed nets on households bed net ownership, socio-economic disparities and childhood malaria infection rates: analysis of national malaria survey data from three sub-Saharan Africa countries

Background

The last decade has witnessed increased funding for malaria control. Malaria experts have used the opportunity to advocate for rollout of such interventions as free bed nets. A free bed net distribution strategy is seen as the quickest way to improve coverage of effective malaria control tools especially among poorest communities. Evidence to support this claim is however, sparse. This study explored the effectiveness of targeted free bed net distribution strategy in achieving equity in terms of ownership and use of bed nets and also reduction of malaria prevalence among children under-five years of age.

Methods

National malaria indicator survey (MIS) data from Angola, Tanzania and Uganda was used in the analysis. Hierarchical multilevel logistic regression models were used to analyse the relationship between variables of interest. Outcome variables were defined as: childhood test-confirmed malaria infections, household ownership of any mosquito net and children’s use of any mosquito nets. Marginal effects of having free bed net distribution on households with different wealth status were calculated.

Results

Angolan children from wealthier households were 6.4 percentage points less likely to be parasitaemic than those in poorest households, whereas those from Tanzania and Uganda were less likely to test malaria positive by 7 and 11.6 percentage points respectively (p < 0.001). The study estimates and present results on the marginal effects based on the impact of free bed net distribution on children's malaria status given their socio-economic background. Poorest households were less likely to own a net by 21.4% in Tanzania, and 2.8% in Uganda, whereas both poorer and wealthier Angolan households almost achieved parity in bed net ownership (p < 0.001). Wealthier households had a higher margin of using nets than poorest people in both Tanzania and Uganda by 11.4% and 3.9% respectively. However, the poorest household in Angola had a 6.1% net use advantage over children in wealthier households (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

This is the first study to use nationally representative data to explore inequalities in bed net ownership and related consequences on childhood malaria infection rates across different countries. While targeted distribution of free bed nets improved overall bed net ownership, it did not overcome ownership inequalities as measured by household socioeconomic status. Use of bed nets was disproportionately lower among poorest children, except for Angola where bed net use was higher among poorest households when compared to children in wealthier households. The study highlights the need for malaria control world governing bodies and policy makers to continue working on finding appropriate strategies to improve access to effective malaria control tools especially by the poorest who often times bears the brunt of malaria burden than their wealthier counterparts.

Progress towards malaria control targets in relation to national malaria programme funding

Background

Malaria control has been dramatically scaled up the past decade, mainly thanks to increasing international donor financing since 2003. This study assessed progress up to 2010 towards global malaria impact targets, in relation to Global Fund, other donor and domestic malaria programme financing over 2003 to 2009.

Methods

Assessments used domestic malaria financing reported by national programmes, and Global Fund/OECD data on donor financing for 90 endemic low- and middle-income countries, WHO estimates of households owning one or more insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) for countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and WHO-estimated malaria case incidence and deaths in countries outside sub-Saharan Africa.

Results

Global Fund and other donor funding is concentrated in a subset of the highest endemic African countries. Outside Africa, donor funding is concentrated in those countries with highest malaria mortality and case incidence rates over the years 2000 to 2003. ITN coverage in 2010 in Africa, and declines in case and death rates per person at risk over 2004 to 2010 outside Africa, were greatest in countries with highest donor funding per person at risk, and smallest in countries with lowest donor malaria funding per person at risk. Outside Africa, all-source malaria programme funding over 2003 to 2009 per case averted ($56-5,749) or per death averted ($58,000-3,900,000) over 2004 to 2010 tended to be lower (more favourable) in countries with higher donor malaria funding per person at risk.

Conclusions

Increases in malaria programme funding are associated with accelerated progress towards malaria control targets. Associations between programme funding per person at risk and ITN coverage increases and declines in case and death rates suggest opportunities to maximize the impact of donor funding, by strategic re-allocation to countries with highest continued need.

Funding for malaria control 2006-2010: a comprehensive global assessment

BACKGROUND

The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in international and domestic funding for malaria control, coupled with important declines in malaria incidence and mortality in some regions of the world. As the ongoing climate of financial uncertainty places strains on investment in global health, there is an increasing need to audit the origin, recipients and geographical distribution of funding for malaria control relative to populations at risk of the disease.

METHODS

A comprehensive review of malaria control funding from international donors, bilateral sources and national governments was undertaken to reconstruct total funding by country for each year 2006 to 2010. Regions at risk from Plasmodium falciparum and/or Plasmodium vivax transmission were identified using global risk maps for 2010 and funding was assessed relative to populations at risk. Those nations with unequal funding relative to a regional average were identified and potential explanations highlighted, such as differences in national policies, government inaction or donor neglect.

RESULTS

US$8.9 billion was disbursed for malaria control and elimination programmes over the study period. Africa had the largest levels of funding per capita-at-risk, with most nations supported primarily by international aid. Countries of the Americas, in contrast, were supported typically through national government funding. Disbursements and government funding in Asia were far lower with a large variation in funding patterns. Nations with relatively high and low levels of funding are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Global funding for malaria control is substantially less than required. Inequity in funding is pronounced in some regions particularly when considering the distinct goals of malaria control and malaria elimination. Efforts to sustain and increase international investment in malaria control should be informed by evidence-based assessment of funding equity.

Lessons from agriculture for the sustainable management of malaria vectors

Willem Takken and colleagues argue for the expansion of insecticide monotherapy in malaria control by taking lessons from agriculture and including more sustainable integrated vector management strategies.

Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations

Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

Increasing malaria hospital admissions in Uganda between 1999 and 2009

BACKGROUND

Some areas of Africa are witnessing a malaria transition, in part due to escalated international donor support and intervention coverage. Areas where declining malaria rates have been observed are largely characterized by relatively low baseline transmission intensity and rapid scaling of interventions. Less well described are changing patterns of malaria burden in areas of high parasite transmission and slower increases in control and treatment access.

METHODS

Uganda is a country predominantly characterized by intense, perennial malaria transmission. Monthly pediatric admission data from five Ugandan hospitals and their catchments have been assembled retrospectively across 11 years from January 1999 to December 2009. Malaria admission rates adjusted for changes in population density within defined catchment areas were computed across three time periods that correspond to periods where intervention coverage data exist and different treatment and prevention policies were operational. Time series models were developed adjusting for variations in rainfall and hospital use to examine changes in malaria hospitalization over 132 months. The temporal changes in factors that might explain changes in disease incidence were qualitatively examined sequentially for each hospital setting and compared between hospital settings

RESULTS

In four out of five sites there was a significant increase in malaria admission rates. Results from time series models indicate a significant month-to-month increase in the mean malaria admission rates at four hospitals (trend P < 0.001). At all hospitals malaria admissions had increased from 1999 by 47% to 350%. Observed changes in intervention coverage within the catchments of each hospital showed a change in insecticide-treated net coverage from <1% in 2000 to 33% by 2009 but accompanied by increases in access to nationally recommended drugs at only two of the five hospital areas studied.

CONCLUSIONS

The declining malaria disease burden in some parts of Africa is not a universal phenomena across the continent. Despite moderate increases in the coverage of measures to reduce infection and disease without significant coincidental increasing access to effective medicines to treat disease may not lead to severe disease burden reductions in high transmission areas of Africa. More data is needed from a wider range of malaria settings to provide an honest tracking progress of the impact of scaled intervention coverage in Africa.

Determinants of the cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants and children

BACKGROUND

Trials of intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) and children (IPTc) have shown promising results in reducing malaria episodes but with varying efficacy and cost-effectiveness. The effects of different intervention and setting characteristics are not well known. We simulate the effects of the different target age groups and delivery channels, seasonal or year-round delivery, transmission intensity, seasonality, proportions of malaria fevers treated and drug characteristics.

METHODS

We use a dynamic, individual-based simulation model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology, antimalarial drug action and case management to simulate DALYs averted and the cost per DALY averted by IPTi and IPTc. IPT cost components were estimated from economic studies alongside trials.

RESULTS

IPTi and IPTc were predicted to be cost-effective in most of the scenarios modelled. The cost-effectiveness is driven by the impact on DALYs, particularly for IPTc, and the low costs, particularly for IPTi which uses the existing delivery strategy, EPI. Cost-effectiveness was predicted to decrease with low transmission, badly timed seasonal delivery in a seasonal setting, short-acting and more expensive drugs, high frequencies of drug resistance and high levels of treatment of malaria fevers. Seasonal delivery was more cost-effective in seasonal settings, and year-round in constant transmission settings. The difference was more pronounced for IPTc than IPTi due to the different proportions of fixed costs and also different assumed drug spacing during the transmission season. The number of DALYs averted was predicted to decrease as a target five-year age-band for IPTc was shifted from children under 5 years into older ages, except at low transmission intensities.

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling can extend the information available by predicting impact and cost-effectiveness for scenarios, for outcomes and for multiple strategies where, for practical reasons, trials cannot be carried out. Both IPTi and IPTc are generally cost-effective but could be rendered cost-ineffective by characteristics of the setting, drug or implementation.

Global cost of child survival: estimates from country-level validation

OBJECTIVE

To cross-validate the global cost of scaling up child survival interventions to achieve the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG4) as estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2007 by using the latest country-provided data and new assumptions.

METHODS

After the main cost categories for each country were identified, validation questionnaires were sent to 32 countries with high child mortality. Publicly available estimates for disease incidence, intervention coverage, prices and resources for individual-level and programme-level activities were validated against local data. Nine updates to the 2007 WHO model were generated using revised assumptions. Finally, estimates were extrapolated to 75 countries and combined with cost estimates for immunization and malaria programmes and for programmes for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

FINDINGS

Twenty-six countries responded. Adjustments were largest for system- and programme-level data and smallest for patient data. Country-level validation caused a 53% increase in original cost estimates (i.e. 9 billion 2004 United States dollars [US$]) for 26 countries owing to revised system and programme assumptions, especially surrounding community health worker costs. The additional effect of updated population figures was small; updated epidemiologic figures increased costs by US$ 4 billion (+15%). New unit prices in the 26 countries that provided data increased estimates by US$ 4.3 billion (+16%). Extrapolation to 75 countries increased the original price estimate by US$ 33 billion (+80%) for 2010-2015.

CONCLUSION

Country-level validation had a significant effect on the cost estimate. Price adaptations and programme-related assumptions contributed substantially. An additional 74 billion US$ 2005 (representing a 12% increase in total health expenditure) would be needed between 2010 and 2015. Given resource constraints, countries will need to prioritize health activities within their national resource envelope.

Equity and adequacy of international donor assistance for global malaria control: an analysis of populations at risk and external funding commitments

BACKGROUND

Financing for malaria control has increased as part of international commitments to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We aimed to identify the unmet financial needs that would be biologically and economically equitable and would increase the chances of reaching worldwide malaria-control ambitions.

METHODS

Populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax transmission were calculated for 2007 and 2009 for 93 malaria-endemic countries to measure biological need. National per-person gross domestic product (GDP) was used to define economic need. An analysis of external donor assistance for malaria control was done for the period 2002-09 to compute overall and annualised per-person at-risk-funding commitments. Annualised malaria donor assistance was compared with independent predictions of funding needed to reach international targets of 80% coverage of best practices in case-management and effective disease prevention. Countries were ranked in relation to biological, economic, and unmet needs to examine equity and adequacy of support by 2010.

FINDINGS

International financing for malaria control has increased by 166% (from $0·73 billion to $1·94 billion) since 2007 and is broadly consistent with biological needs. African countries have become major recipients of external assistance; however, countries where P vivax continues to pose threats to control ambitions are not as well funded. 21 countries have reached adequate assistance to provide a comprehensive suite of interventions by 2009, including 12 countries in Africa. However, this assistance was inadequate for 50 countries representing 61% of the worldwide population at risk of malaria-including ten countries in Africa and five in Asia that coincidentally are some of the poorest countries. Approval of donor funding for malaria control does not correlate with GDP.

INTERPRETATION

Funding for malaria control worldwide is 60% lower than the US$4·9 billion needed for comprehensive control in 2010; this includes funding shortfalls for a wide range of countries with different numbers of people at risk and different levels of domestic income. More efficient targeting of financial resources against biological need and national income should create a more equitable investment portfolio that with increased commitments will guarantee sustained financing of control in countries most at risk and least able to support themselves.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Cost effectiveness of seasonal intermittent preventive treatment using amodiaquine & artesunate or sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine in Ghanaian children

BACKGROUND

Intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in children (IPTc) involves the administration of a full course of an anti-malarial treatment to children under 5 years old at specified time points regardless of whether or not they are known to be infected, in areas where malaria transmission is seasonal. It is important to determine the costs associated with IPTc delivery via community based volunteers and also the potential savings to health care providers and caretakers due to malaria episodes averted as a consequence of IPTc.

METHODS

Two thousand four hundred and fifty-one children aged 3-59 months were randomly allocated to four groups to receive: three days of artesunate plus amodiaquine (AS+AQ) monthly, three days of AS+AQ bimonthly, one dose of sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) bi-monthly or placebo. This paper focuses on incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of the three IPTc drug regimens as delivered by community based volunteers (CBV) in Hohoe, Ghana compared to current practice, i.e. case management in the absence of IPTc. Financial and economic costs from the publicly funded health system perspective are presented. Treatment costs borne by patients and their caretakers are also estimated to present societal costs. The costs and effects of IPTc during the intervention period were considered with and without a one year follow up. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to account for uncertainty.

RESULTS

Economic costs per child receiving at least the first dose of each course of IPTc show SP bimonthly, at US$8.19, is the cheapest to deliver, followed by AS+AQ bimonthly at US$10.67 and then by AS+AQ monthly at US$14.79. Training, drug delivery and supervision accounted for approximately 20-30% each of total unit costs. During the intervention period AS & AQ monthly was the most cost effective IPTc drug regimen at US$67.77 (61.71-74.75, CI 95%) per malaria case averted based on intervention costs only, US$64.93 (58.92-71.92, CI 95%) per malaria case averted once the provider cost savings are included and US$61.00 (54.98, 67.99, CI 95%) when direct household cost savings are also taken into account. SP bimonthly was US$105.35 (75.01-157.31, CI 95%) and AS & AQ bimonthly US$211.80 (127.05-399.14, CI 95%) per malaria case averted based on intervention costs only. The incidence of malaria in the post intervention period was higher in children who were <1 year old when they received AS+AQ monthly compared to the placebo group leading to higher cost effectiveness ratios when one year follow up is included. The cost per child enrolled fell considerably when modelled to district level as compared to those encountered under trial conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate how cost-effective IPTc is using three different drug regimens and the possibilities for reducing costs further if the intervention was to be scaled up to the district level. The need for effective training, drug delivery channels and supervision to support a strong network of community based volunteers is emphasised.

Estimating the number of paediatric fevers associated with malaria infection presenting to Africa's public health sector in 2007

BACKGROUND

As international efforts to increase the coverage of artemisinin-based combination therapy in public health sectors gather pace, concerns have been raised regarding their continued indiscriminate presumptive use for treating all childhood fevers. The availability of rapid-diagnostic tests to support practical and reliable parasitological diagnosis provides an opportunity to improve the rational treatment of febrile children across Africa. However, the cost effectiveness of diagnosis-based treatment polices will depend on the presumed numbers of fevers harbouring infection. Here we compute the number of fevers likely to present to public health facilities in Africa and the estimated number of these fevers likely to be infected with Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assembled first administrative-unit level data on paediatric fever prevalence, treatment-seeking rates, and child populations. These data were combined in a geographical information system model that also incorporated an adjustment procedure for urban versus rural areas to produce spatially distributed estimates of fever burden amongst African children and the subset likely to present to public sector clinics. A second data assembly was used to estimate plausible ranges for the proportion of paediatric fevers seen at clinics positive for P. falciparum in different endemicity settings. We estimated that, of the 656 million fevers in African 0-4 y olds in 2007, 182 million (28%) were likely to have sought treatment in a public sector clinic of which 78 million (43%) were likely to have been infected with P. falciparum (range 60-103 million).

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial estimates of childhood fevers and care-seeking rates can be combined with a relational risk model of infection prevalence in the community to estimate the degree of parasitemia in those fevers reaching public health facilities. This quantification provides an important baseline comparison of malarial and nonmalarial fevers in different endemicity settings that can contribute to ongoing scientific and policy debates about optimum clinical and financial strategies for the introduction of new diagnostics. These models are made publicly available with the publication of this paper.

Use of HRP-2-based rapid diagnostic test for Plasmodium falciparum malaria: assessing accuracy and cost-effectiveness in the villages of Dielmo and Ndiop, Senegal

BACKGROUND

In 2006, the Senegalese National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) has recommended artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) as the first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria and, in 2007, mandated testing for all suspected cases of malaria with a Plasmodium falciparum HRP-2-based rapid diagnostic test for malaria (RDT(Paracheck). Given the higher cost of ACT compared to earlier anti-malarials, the objectives of the present study were i) to study the accuracy of Paracheck compared to the thick blood smear (TBS) in two areas with different levels of malaria endemicity and ii) analyse the cost-effectiveness of the strategy of the parasitological confirmation of clinically suspected malaria cases management recommended by the NMCP.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was undertaken in the villages of Dielmo and Ndiop (Senegal) nested in a cohort study of about 800 inhabitants. For all the individuals consulting between October 2008 and January 2009 with a clinical diagnosis of malaria, a questionnaire was filled and finger-prick blood samples were taken both for microscopic examination and RDT. The estimated costs and cost-effectiveness analysis were made considering five scenarios, the recommendations of the NMCP being the reference scenario. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed assuming that all the RDT-positive patients and 50% of RDT-negative patients were treated with ACT.

RESULTS

A total of 189 consultations for clinically suspected malaria occurred during the study period. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were respectively 100%, 98.3%, 80.0% and 100%. The estimated cost of the reference scenario was close to 700 euros per 1000 episodes of illness, approximately twice as expensive as most of the other scenarios. Nevertheless, it appeared to us cost-effective while ensuring the diagnosis and the treatment of 100% of malaria attacks and an adequate management of 98.4% of episodes of illness. The present study also demonstrated that full compliance of health care providers with RDT results was required in order to avoid severe incremental costs.

CONCLUSIONS

A rational use of ACT requires laboratory testing of all patients presenting with presumed malaria. Use of RDTs inevitably has incremental costs, but the strategy associating RDT use for all clinically suspected malaria and prescribing ACT only to patients tested positive is cost-effective in areas where microscopy is unavailable.

Financing of health systems to achieve the health Millennium Development Goals in low-income countries

Concern that underfunded and weak health systems are impeding the achievement of the health Millennium Development Goals in low-income countries led to the creation of a High Level Taskforce on Innovative International Financing for Health Systems in September, 2008. This report summarises the key challenges faced by the Taskforce and its Working Groups. Working Group 1 examined the constraints to scaling up and costs. Challenges included: difficulty in generalisation because of scarce and context-specific health-systems knowledge; no consensus for optimum service-delivery approaches, leading to wide cost differences; no consensus for health benefits; difficulty in quantification of likely efficiency gains; and challenges in quantification of the financing gap owing to uncertainties about financial commitments for health. Working Group 2 reviewed the different innovative mechanisms for raising and channelling funds. Challenges included: variable definitions of innovative finance; small evidence base for many innovative finance mechanisms; insufficient experience in harmonisation of global health initiatives; and inadequate experience in use of international investments to improve maternal, newborn, and child health. The various mechanisms reviewed and finally recommended all had different characteristics, some focusing on specific problems and some on raising resources generally. Contentious issues included the potential role of the private sector, the rights-based approach to health, and the move to results-based aid. The challenges and disagreements that arose during the work of the Taskforce draw attention to the many issues facing decision makers in low-income countries. International donors and recipient governments should work together to improve the evidence base for strengthening health systems, increase long-term commitments, and improve accountability through transparent and inclusive national approaches.

Microbial larvicide application by a large-scale, community-based program reduces malaria infection prevalence in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Background

Malaria control in Africa is most tractable in urban settlements yet most research has focused on rural settings. Elimination of malaria transmission from urban areas may require larval control strategies that complement adult mosquito control using insecticide-treated nets or houses, particularly where vectors feed outdoors.

Methods and Findings

Microbial larvicide (Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti)) was applied weekly through programmatic, non-randomized community-based, but vertically managed, delivery systems in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Continuous, randomized cluster sampling of malaria infection prevalence and non-random programmatic surveillance of entomological inoculation rate (EIR) respectively constituted the primary and secondary outcomes surveyed within a population of approximately 612,000 residents in 15 fully urban wards covering 55 km². Bti application for one year in 3 of those wards (17 km² with 128,000 residents) reduced crude annual transmission estimates (Relative EIR [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.683 [0.491–0.952], P = 0.024) but program effectiveness peaked between July and September (Relative EIR [CI] = 0.354 [0.193 to 0.650], P = 0.001) when 45% (9/20) of directly observed transmission events occurred. Larviciding reduced malaria infection risk among children ≤5 years of age (OR [CI] = 0.284 [0.101 to 0.801], P = 0.017) and provided protection at least as good as personal use of an insecticide treated net (OR [CI] = 0.764 [0.614–0.951], P = 0.016).

Conclusions

In this context, larviciding reduced malaria prevalence and complemented existing protection provided by insecticide-treated nets. Larviciding may represent a useful option for integrated vector management in Africa, particularly in its rapidly growing urban centres.

Valuing climate change impacts on human health: empirical evidence from the literature

There is a broad consensus that climate change will increase the costs arising from diseases such as malaria and diarrhea and, furthermore, that the largest increases will be in developing countries. One of the problems is the lack of studies measuring these costs systematically and in detail. This paper critically reviews a number of studies about the costs of planned adaptation in the health context, and compares current health expenditures with MDGs which are felt to be inadequate when considering climate change impacts. The analysis serves also as a critical investigation of the methodologies used and aims at identifying research weaknesses and gaps.

Malaria eradication: the economic, financial and institutional challenge

Malaria eradication raises many economic, financial and institutional challenges. This paper reviews these challenges, drawing on evidence from previous efforts to eradicate malaria, with a special focus on resource-poor settings; summarizes more recent evidence on the challenges, drawing on the literature on the difficulties of scaling-up malaria control and strengthening health systems more broadly; and explores the implications of these bodies of evidence for the current call for elimination and intensified control. Economic analyses dating from the eradication era, and more recent analyses, suggest that, in general, the benefits of malaria control outweigh the costs, though few studies have looked at the relative returns to eradication versus long-term control. Estimates of financial costs are scanty and difficult to compare. In the 1960s, the consolidation phase appeared to cost less than $1 per capita and, in 1988, was estimated to be $2.31 per capita (both in 2006 prices). More recent estimates for high coverage of control measures suggest a per capita cost of several dollars. Institutional challenges faced by malaria eradication included limits to the rule of law (a major problem where malaria was concentrated in border areas with movement of people associated with illegal activities), the existence and performance of local implementing structures, and political sustainability at national and global levels. Recent analyses of the constraints to scaling-up malaria control, together with the historical evidence, are used to discuss the economic, financial and institutional challenges that face the renewed call for eradication and intensified control. The paper concludes by identifying a research agenda covering: issues of the allocative efficiency of malaria eradication, especially using macro-economic modelling to estimate the benefits and costs of malaria eradication and intensified control, and studies of the links between malaria control and economic development, the costs and consequences of the various tools and mixes of tools employed in control and eradication, issues concerning the extension of coverage of interventions and service delivery approaches, especially those that can reach the poorest, research on the processes of formulating and implementing malaria control and eradication policies, at both international and national levels, research on financing issues, at global and national levels.

Adaptation costs for climate change-related cases of diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition, and malaria in 2030

BACKGROUND

Climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, with larger burdens projected in the future as weather patterns continue to change. The climate change-related health consequences of diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria are projected to pose the largest risks to future populations. Limited work has been done to estimate the costs of adapting to these additional health burdens.

METHODS

The costs of treating diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition (stunting and wasting only), and malaria in 2030 were estimated under three climate scenarios using (1) the current numbers of cases; (2) the projected relative risks of these diseases in 2030; and (3) current treatment costs. The analysis assumed that the number of annual cases and costs of treatment would remain constant. There was limited consideration of socioeconomic development.

RESULTS

Under a scenario assuming emissions reductions resulting in stabilization at 750 ppm CO2 equivalent in 2210, the costs of treating diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria in 2030 were estimated to be $4 to 12 billion. This is almost as much as current total annual overseas development assistance for health.

CONCLUSION

The investment needs in the health sector to address climate-sensitive health outcomes are large. Additional human and financial resources will be needed to prevent and control the projected increased burden of health outcomes due to climate change.

Adaptation costs for climate change-related cases of diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition, and malaria in 2030

BACKGROUND

Climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, with larger burdens projected in the future as weather patterns continue to change. The climate change-related health consequences of diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria are projected to pose the largest risks to future populations. Limited work has been done to estimate the costs of adapting to these additional health burdens.

METHODS

The costs of treating diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition (stunting and wasting only), and malaria in 2030 were estimated under three climate scenarios using (1) the current numbers of cases; (2) the projected relative risks of these diseases in 2030; and (3) current treatment costs. The analysis assumed that the number of annual cases and costs of treatment would remain constant. There was limited consideration of socioeconomic development.

RESULTS

Under a scenario assuming emissions reductions resulting in stabilization at 750 ppm CO2 equivalent in 2210, the costs of treating diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria in 2030 were estimated to be $4 to 12 billion. This is almost as much as current total annual overseas development assistance for health.

CONCLUSION

The investment needs in the health sector to address climate-sensitive health outcomes are large. Additional human and financial resources will be needed to prevent and control the projected increased burden of health outcomes due to climate change.

Malaria and poverty

Malaria is one of the most important challenges to global public health. African countries south of the Sahara bear today the heaviest burden of malaria. The relationship between poverty and malaria has long been recognized but its paths are multiple and complex. Recent studies suggest that causality works both ways, trapping communities in reinforcing cycles of poverty and disease. If malaria is to be controlled or eventually eliminated, the social and economic conditions that fuel malaria transmission need to be addressed. At the same time, malaria control should be seen as a poverty reduction strategy.

Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control

Planning of the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria leads to a need for models of malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative prediction of likely epidemiological outcomes of a wide range of control strategies. Predictions of the effects of control often ignore medium- and long-term dynamics. The complexities of the Plasmodium life-cycle, and of within-host dynamics, limit the applicability of conventional deterministic malaria models. We use individual-based stochastic simulations of malaria epidemiology to predict the impacts of interventions on infection, morbidity, mortality, health services use and costs. Individual infections are simulated by stochastic series of parasite densities, and naturally acquired immunity acts by reducing densities. Morbidity and mortality risks, and infectiousness to vectors, depend on parasite densities. The simulated infections are nested within simulations of individuals in human populations, and linked to models of interventions and health systems. We use numerous field datasets to optimise parameter estimates. By using a volunteer computing system we obtain the enormous computational power required for model fitting, sensitivity analysis, and exploration of many different intervention strategies. The project thus provides a general platform for comparing, fitting, and evaluating different model structures, and for quantitative prediction of effects of different interventions and integrated control programmes.

International funding for malaria control in relation to populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum transmission

BACKGROUND

The international financing of malaria control has increased significantly in the last ten years in parallel with calls to halve the malaria burden by the year 2015. The allocation of funds to countries should reflect the size of the populations at risk of infection, disease, and death. To examine this relationship, we compare an audit of international commitments with an objective assessment of national need: the population at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in 2007.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The national distributions of populations at risk of stable P. falciparum transmission were projected to the year 2007 for each of 87 P. falciparum-endemic countries. Systematic online- and literature-based searches were conducted to audit the international funding commitments made for malaria control by major donors between 2002 and 2007. These figures were used to generate annual malaria funding allocation (in US dollars) per capita population at risk of stable P. falciparum in 2007. Almost US$1 billion are distributed each year to the 1.4 billion people exposed to stable P. falciparum malaria risk. This is less than US$1 per person at risk per year. Forty percent of this total comes from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Substantial regional and national variations in disbursements exist. While the distribution of funds is found to be broadly appropriate, specific high population density countries receive disproportionately less support to scale up malaria control. Additionally, an inadequacy of current financial commitments by the international community was found: under-funding could be from 50% to 450%, depending on which global assessment of the cost required to scale up malaria control is adopted.

CONCLUSIONS

Without further increases in funding and appropriate targeting of global malaria control investment it is unlikely that international goals to halve disease burdens by 2015 will be achieved. Moreover, the additional financing requirements to move from malaria control to malaria elimination have not yet been considered by the scientific or international community.

Divergent goals and commitments in global malaria intervention

Anthony Kiszewski discusses the implications of a new study that finds that global malaria funding remains inadequate.

Markets, voucher subsidies and free nets combine to achieve high bed net coverage in rural Tanzania

Background

Tanzania has a well-developed network of commercial ITN retailers. In 2004, the government introduced a voucher subsidy for pregnant women and, in mid 2005, helped distribute free nets to under-fives in small number of districts, including Rufiji on the southern coast, during a child health campaign. Contributions of these multiple insecticide-treated net delivery strategies existing at the same time and place to coverage in a poor rural community were assessed.

Methods

Cross-sectional household survey in 6,331 members of randomly selected 1,752 households of 31 rural villages of Demographic Surveillance System in Rufiji district, Southern Tanzania was conducted in 2006. A questionnaire was administered to every consenting respondent about net use, treatment status and delivery mechanism.

Findings

Net use was 62.7% overall, 87.2% amongst infants (0 to1 year), 81.8% amongst young children (>1 to 5 years), 54.5% amongst older children (6 to 15 years) and 59.6% amongst adults (>15 years). 30.2% of all nets had been treated six months prior to interview. The biggest source of nets used by infants was purchase from the private sector with a voucher subsidy (41.8%). Half of nets used by young children (50.0%) and over a third of those used by older children (37.2%) were obtained free of charge through the vaccination campaign. The largest source of nets amongst the population overall was commercial purchase (45.1% use) and was the primary means for protecting adults (60.2% use). All delivery mechanisms, especially sale of nets at full market price, under-served the poorest but no difference in equity was observed between voucher-subsidized and freely distributed nets.

Conclusion

All three delivery strategies enabled a poor rural community to achieve net coverage high enough to yield both personal and community level protection for the entire population. Each of them reached their relevant target group and free nets only temporarily suppressed the net market, illustrating that in this setting that these are complementary rather than mutually exclusive approaches.

Cost-sharing strategies combining targeted public subsidies with private-sector delivery achieve high bednet coverage and reduced malaria transmission in Kilombero Valley, southern Tanzania

Background

Cost-sharing schemes incorporating modest targeted subsidies have promoted insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria prevention in the Kilombero Valley, southern Tanzania, since 1996. Here we evaluate resulting changes in bednet coverage and malaria transmission.

Methods

Bednets were sold through local agents at fixed prices representing a 34% subsidy relative to full delivery cost. A further targeted subsidy of 15% was provided to vulnerable groups through discount vouchers delivered through antenatal clinics and regular immunizations. Continuous entomological surveys (2,376 trap nights) were conducted from October 2001 to September 2003 in 25 randomly-selected population clusters of a demographic surveillance system which monitored net coverage.

Results

Mean net usage of 75% (11,982/16,086) across all age groups was achieved but now-obsolete technologies available at the time resulted in low insecticide treatment rates. Malaria transmission remained intense but was substantially reduced: Compared with an exceptionally high historical mean EIR of 1481, even non-users of nets were protected (EIR [fold reduction] = 349 infectious bites per person per year [×4]), while the average resident (244 [×6]), users of typical nets (210 [×7]) and users of insecticidal nets (105 [×14]) enjoyed increasing benefits.

Conclusion

Despite low net treatment levels, community-level protection was equivalent to the personal protection of an ITN. Greater gains for net users and non-users are predicted if more expensive long-lasting ITN technologies can be similarly promoted with correspondingly augmented subsidies. Cost sharing strategies represent an important option for national programmes lacking adequate financing to fully subsidize comprehensive ITN coverage.