[Fiebre manchada de montañas rocosas: experiencia en 5 años de vigilancia activa en un hospital pediátrico de segundo nivel en el noreste de México]

A compartment and metapopulation model of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st century. Along the US south-western border and across northern Mexico, the brown dog tick, Rhipicephalus sanguineus, is responsible for spreading the disease between dogs and humans. The widespread nature of the disease and the ongoing epidemics contrast with historically sporadic patterns of the disease. Because dogs are amplifying hosts for the Rickettsia rickettsii bacteria, transmission dynamics between dogs and ticks are critical for understanding the epidemic. In this paper, we developed a compartment metapopulation model and used it to explore the dynamics and drivers of RMSF in dogs and brown dog ticks in a theoretical region in western North America. We discovered that there is an extended lag-as much as two years-between introduction of the pathogen to a naïve population and epidemic-level transmission, suggesting that infected ticks could disseminate extensively before disease is detected. A single large city-size population of dogs was sufficient to maintain the disease over a decade and serve as a source for disease in surrounding smaller towns. This model is a novel tool that can be used to identify high risk areas and key intervention points for epidemic RMSF spread by brown dog ticks.

Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever in a Large Metropolitan Center, Mexico-United States Border, 2009-2019

Longevity, high prevalence, and multifocal distribution of this disease pose unprecedented public health challenges.

Epidemic levels of Rocky Mountain spotted fe­­­ver (RMSF) have persisted in Mexicali, Mexico, since the initial outbreak was first reported in December 2008. We compared clinical and epidemiologic data of cases in Mexicali during 2009–2019 between patients with an IgG titer reactive with Rickettsia rickettsii bacteria by indirect immunofluorescence antibody (IFA) assay and those who demonstrated DNA of R. rickettsii in a whole blood sample when tested by PCR. We identified 4,290 patients with clinical and epidemiologic features compatible with RMSF; of these, 9.74% tested positive by IFA and 8.41% by PCR. Overall, 140 patients died (11-year case-fatality rate 17.97%). Substantial differences in the frequency of commonly recognized clinical characteristics of RMSF were identified between PCR-positive and IFA-positive cases. The Mexicali epidemic is unique in its size and urban centralization. Cases confirmed by PCR most accurately reflect the clinical profile of RMSF.