Mid-season real-time estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness in persons 65 years and older in register-based surveillance, Stockholm County, Sweden, and Finland, January 2017

Estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness among older adults using an integrated administrative database and the implications of potential bias: A population-based cohort study in Japan

BACKGROUND

Japan lacks an established framework for routine seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (SIVE) assessment at the national and municipal levels. This study aimed to estimate SIVE among older adults using an innovative population-based administrative database linking medical fee claims data with vaccination records, while also exploring its potential bias.

METHODS

In this retrospective population-based cohort study, we assessed SIVE against medically attended influenza during the 2017/18 season among older adults aged ≥65 years in a Japanese city. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard rate ratios, treating vaccination status as time-dependent. To explore potential biases, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the association between vaccination status and acute respiratory infection (ARI) diagnosis and trauma/injury during the non-influenza season.

RESULTS

This study included 82 % (n = 110,892) of the city's older adult population, with 39.7 % vaccination coverage. The estimated SIVE was 2.9 % (95 % confidence interval: -6.2-11.2), showing no statistical significance. Similarly, subgroup analyses by age and comorbidities revealed no significant protective effect of SIVE. In the non-season analysis, adjusted odds ratios of vaccination were significantly higher for ARI [1.3 (1.3-1.4)] and trauma/injury [1.2 (1.1-1.2)]. However, no significance was observed for hospitalizations with these diagnoses, which include severe conditions less associated with healthcare-seeking behaviors [0.9 (0.8-1.1) and 0.8 (0.6-1.0), respectively].

CONCLUSIONS

No significant SIVE was observed during the 2017/18 season. Our real-world observational study, based on medical fee claims data, indicates a potential underestimation of SIVE owing to bias related to healthcare-seeking behaviors.

Increased genetic variation of A(H3N2) virus from influenza surveillance at the end of the 2016/2017 season for Shanghai port, China

Influenza A(H3N2) virus exhibited complex seasonal patterns to evade pre-existing antibodies, resulting in changes in the antigenicity of the viron surface protein hemagglutinin (HA). To monitor the currently imported influenza viruses as well as to assess the capacity of health emergencies at the Shanghai port, we collected respiratory specimens of passengers from different countries and regions including some of Europe with influenza-like illness at the Shanghai port during 2016/2017, examined amino acid substitutions, and calculated the perfect-match vaccine efficacy using the p epitope model. Phylogenetic analysis of the HA genes revealed that influenza A(H3N2) viruses belonging to eight subclades were detected, and three amino acid substitutions in the subclade 3C.2a.4 were also added. Besides, two epidemic influenza virus strains were found in the 2016/2017 winter and 2016 summer. The results of lower predicted vaccine effectiveness in summer suggest that the imported A(H3N2) strains were not a good match for the A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 vaccine strain since the summer of 2017. Therefore, the Shanghai Port might stop the risk of the international spread of influenza for the first time, and curb the entry of A(H3N2) from overseas at the earliest stage of a probable influenza pandemic.

System dynamic modelling of healthcare associated influenza -a tool for infection control

BACKGROUND

The transmission dynamics of influenza virus within healthcare settings are not fully understood. Capturing the interplay between host, viral and environmental factors is difficult using conventional research methods. Instead, system dynamic modelling may be used to illustrate the complex scenarios including non-linear relationships and multiple interactions which occur within hospitals during a seasonal influenza epidemic. We developed such a model intended as a support for health-care providers in identifying potentially effective control strategies to prevent influenza transmission.

METHODS

By using computer simulation software, we constructed a system dynamic model to illustrate transmission dynamics within a large acute-care hospital. We used local real-world clinical and epidemiological data collected during the season 2016/17, as well as data from the national surveillance programs and relevant publications to form the basic structure of the model. Multiple stepwise simulations were performed to identify the relative effectiveness of various control strategies and to produce estimates of the accumulated number of healthcare-associated influenza cases per season.

RESULTS

Scenarios regarding the number of patients exposed for influenza virus by shared room and the extent of antiviral prophylaxis and treatment were investigated in relation to estimations of influenza vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness and inflow of patients with influenza. In total, 680 simulations were performed, of which each one resulted in an estimated number per season. The most effective preventive measure identified by our model was administration of antiviral prophylaxis to exposed patients followed by reducing the number of patients receiving care in shared rooms.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents an system dynamic model that can be used to capture the complex dynamics of in-hospital transmission of viral infections and identify potentially effective interventions to prevent healthcare-associated influenza infections. Our simulations identified antiviral prophylaxis as the most effective way to control in-hospital influenza transmission.

Exposure misclassification bias in the estimation of vaccine effectiveness

In epidemiology, a typical measure of interest is the risk of disease conditional upon exposure. A common source of bias in the estimation of risks and risk ratios is misclassification. Exposure misclassification affects the measurement of exposure, i.e. the variable one conditions on. This article explains how to assess biases under non-differential exposure misclassification when estimating vaccine effectiveness, i.e. the vaccine-induced relative reduction in the risk of disease. The problem can be described in terms of three binary variables: the unobserved true exposure status, the observed but potentially misclassified exposure status, and the observed true disease status. The bias due to exposure misclassification is quantified by the difference between the naïve estimand defined as one minus the risk ratio comparing individuals observed as vaccinated with individuals observed as unvaccinated, and the vaccine effectiveness defined as one minus the risk ratio comparing truly vaccinated with truly unvaccinated. The magnitude of the bias depends on five factors: the risks of disease in the truly vaccinated and the truly unvaccinated, the sensitivity and specificity of exposure measurement, and vaccination coverage. Non-differential exposure misclassification bias is always negative. In practice, if the sensitivity and specificity are known or estimable from external sources, the true risks and the vaccination coverage can be estimated from the observed data and, thus, the estimation of vaccine effectiveness based on the observed risks can be corrected for exposure misclassification. When analysing risks under misclassification, careful consideration of conditional probabilities is crucial.

Extensive Hospital In-Ward Clustering Revealed By Molecular Characterization of Influenza A Virus Infection

BACKGROUND

Nosocomial transmission of influenza A virus (InfA) infection is not fully recognized. The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of hospitalized patients with InfA infections during an entire season and to investigate in-ward transmission at a large, acute-care hospital.

METHODS

During the 2016-17 season, all hospitalized patients ≥18 years old with laboratory-verified (real-time polymerase chain reaction) InfA were identified. Cases were characterized according to age; sex; comorbidity; antiviral therapy; viral load, expressed as cycle threshold values; length of hospital stay; 30-day mortality; and whether the InfA infection met criteria for a health care-associated influenza A infection (HCAI). Respiratory samples positive for InfA that were collected at the same wards within 7 days were chosen for whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and a phylogenetic analysis was performed to detect clustering. For reference, concurrent InfA strains from patients with community-acquired infection were included.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 435 InfA cases, of which 114 (26%) met the HCAI criteria. The overall 30-day mortality rate was higher among patients with HCAI (9.6% vs 4.6% among non-HCAI patients), although the difference was not statistically significant in a multivariable analysis, where age was the only independent risk factor for death (P < .05). We identified 8 closely related clusters (involving ≥3 cases) and another 10 pairs of strains, supporting in-ward transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the in-ward transmission of InfA occurs frequently and that HCAI may have severe outcomes. WGS may be used for outbreak investigations, as well as for evaluations of the effects of preventive measures.

Mitigation of biases in estimating hazard ratios under non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes-applications to influenza vaccine effectiveness

Background

Non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes in time-to-event data affects event counts as well as the risk sets, thus, biasing the estimation of hazard ratios. We investigate how imperfect observation of incident events affects the estimation of vaccine effectiveness based on hazard ratios.

Methods

Imperfect time-to-event data contain two classes of events: a portion of the true events of interest; and false-positive events mistakenly recorded as events of interest. We develop an estimation method utilising a weighted partial likelihood and probabilistic deletion of false-positive events and assuming the sensitivity and the false-positive rate are known. The performance of the method is evaluated using simulated and Finnish register data.

Results

The novel method enables unbiased semiparametric estimation of hazard ratios from imperfect time-to-event data. False-positive rates that are small can be approximated to be zero without inducing bias. The method is robust to misspecification of the sensitivity as long as the ratio of the sensitivity in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated is specified correctly and the cumulative risk of the true event is small.

Conclusions

The weighted partial likelihood can be used to adjust for outcome measurement errors in the estimation of hazard ratios and effectiveness but requires specifying the sensitivity and the false-positive rate. In absence of exact information about these parameters, the method works as a tool for assessing the potential magnitude of bias given a range of likely parameter values.

Neethling vaccine proved highly effective in controlling lumpy skin disease epidemics in the Balkans

Despite the wide use of the live attenuated Neethling lumpy skin disease (LSD) vaccine, only limited data existed on its efficacy and effectiveness prior to the large LSD epidemic in the Balkans, which took place during 2016-2017. In addition, analysis of risk factors for the disease was hardly performed with proper control for vaccination effects and potential differences in exposure to the virus. Data from the LSD epidemics in six Balkan countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) and Albania) affected during 2016 were analyzed to determine vaccine effectiveness (VE) and risk factors for LSD infection at the farm level. Vaccination was performed along the occurrence of the epidemics and thus vaccination status of some of the farms changed during the epidemic. To allow for this, left truncated and right censored survival analysis was used in a mixed effects Cox proportional hazard regression model to calculate VE and risk factors for LSD. The results indicated of an average VE of 79.8% (95% CI: 73.2-84.7)) in the six countries, with the lowest VE of 62.5% documented in Albania and up to VE of more than 97% as documented in Bulgaria and Serbia. Analysis of time from vaccination to development of protective immunity showed that VE mostly developed during the first 14 days after vaccination. Data from Greece showed that the vaccination adjusted hazard ratio for LSD was 5.7 higher in grazing farms compared to non-grazing farms. However, due to a difference in geographical location of grazing and non-grazing farms and higher vaccination rate in non-grazing farms, this effect can be at least partly attributed to indirect protection due to herd immunity provided by surrounding vaccinated farms.

Heterogeneity of Circulating Influenza Viruses and Their Impact on Influenza Virus Vaccine Effectiveness During the Influenza Seasons 2016/17 to 2018/19 in Austria

The constantly changing pattern in the dominance of viral strains and their evolving subclades during the seasons substantially influences influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE). In order to further substantiate the importance of detailed data of genetic virus characterization for IVE estimates during the seasons, we performed influenza virus type and subtype specific IVE estimates. IVE estimates were assessed using a test-negative case-control design, in the context of the intraseasonal changes of the heterogeneous mix of circulating influenza virus strains for three influenza seasons (2016/17 to 2018/19) in Austria. Adjusted overall IVE over the three seasons 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2018/19 were -26, 39, and 63%, respectively. In accordance with the changing pattern of the circulating strains a broad range of overall and subtype specific IVEs was obtained: A(H3N2) specific IVE ranged between -26% for season 2016/17 to 58% in season 2018/19, A(H1N1)pdm09 specific IVE was 25% for the season 2017/18 and 65% for the season 2018/19 and Influenza B specific IVE for season 2017/18 was 45%. The results obtained in our study over the three seasons demonstrate the increasingly complex dynamic of the ever changing genetic pattern of the circulating influenza viruses and their influence on IVE estimates. This emphasizes the importance of detailed genetic virus surveillance for reliable IVE estimates.

Impact of influenza vaccination on healthcare utilization - A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Although a vaccine-preventable disease, influenza causes approximately 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 290,000-650,000 deaths worldwide, which occur primarily among people 65 years and older. Nonetheless, prevention of influenza and its complications rely mainly on vaccination. We aimed to systematically evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness at reducing healthcare utilization in older adults, defined as the reduction of outpatient visits, ILI and influenza hospitalizations, utilization of antibiotics and cardiovascular events by vaccination status during the influenza season.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library and considered any seasonal influenza vaccine, excluding the pandemic (2009-10 season) vaccine. Reviewers independently assessed data extraction and quality assessment.

RESULTS

Of the 8308 citations retrieved, 22 studies were included in the systematic review. Overall, two studies (9%) were deemed at moderate risk of bias, thirteen (59%) at serious risk of bias and seven (32%) at critical risk of bias. For outpatient visits, we found modest evidence of protection by the influenza vaccine. For all-cause hospitalization outcomes, we found a wide range of results, mostly deemed at serious risk of bias. The included studies suggested that the vaccine may protect older adults against influenza hospitalizations and cardiovascular events. No article meeting our inclusion criteria explored the use of antibiotics and ILI hospitalizations. The high heterogeneity between studies hindered the aggregation of data into a meta-analysis.

CONCLUSION

The variability between studies prevented us from drawing a clear conclusion on the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine on healthcare utilization in older adults. Overall, the data suggests that the vaccine may result in a reduction of healthcare utilization in the older population. Further studies of higher quality are necessary.

Cohort study design for estimating the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in real time based on register data: The Finnish example

This paper presents the principles of implementing register-based cohort studies as currently applied for real-time estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness in Finland. All required information is retrieved from computerised national registers and deterministically linked via the unique personal identity code assigned to each Finnish resident. The study cohorts comprise large subpopulations eligible for a free seasonal influenza vaccination as part of the National Vaccination Programme. The primary outcome is laboratory-confirmed influenza. Each study subject is taken to be at risk of experiencing the outcome from the onset of the influenza season until the first of the following three events occurs: outcome, loss to follow up or end of season. Seasonal influenza vaccination is viewed as time-dependent exposure. Accordingly, each subject may contribute unvaccinated and vaccinated person-time during their time at risk. The vaccine effectiveness is estimated as one minus the influenza incidence rate ratio comparing the vaccinated with the unvaccinated within the study cohorts. Data collection in register-based research is an almost fully automated process. The effort, resources and the time spent in the field are relatively small compared to other observational study designs. This advantage is pivotal when vaccine effectiveness estimates are needed in real time. The paper outlines possible limitations of register-based cohort studies. It also addresses the need to explore how national and subnational registers available in the Nordic countries and elsewhere can be utilised in vaccine effectiveness research to guide decision making and to improve individual health as well as public health.

Uptake and effectiveness of influenza vaccine in those aged 65 years and older in the United Kingdom, influenza seasons 2010/11 to 2016/17

BackgroundIn 2016/17, seasonal influenza vaccine was less effective in those aged 65 years and older in the United Kingdom. We describe the uptake, influenza-associated mortality and adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) in this age group over influenza seasons 2010/11-2016/17. Methods: Vaccine uptake in 2016/17 and five previous seasons were measured using a sentinel general practitioners cohort in England; the test-negative case-control design was used to estimate pooled aVE by subtype and age group against laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care from 2010-2017. Results: Vaccine uptake was 64% in 65-69-year-olds, 74% in 70-74-year-olds and 80% in those aged 75 and older. Overall aVE was 32.5% (95% CI: 11.6 to 48.5); aVE by sub-type was 60.8% (95% CI: 33.9 to 76.7) and 50.0% (95% CI: 21.6 to 68.1) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, respectively, but only 5.6% (95% CI: - 39.2 to 35.9) against A(H3N2). Against all laboratory-confirmed influenza aVE was 45.2% (95% CI: 25.1 to 60.0) in 65-74 year olds; - 26.2% (95% CI: - 149.3 to 36.0) in 75-84 year olds and - 3.2% (95% CI: - 237.8 to 68.5) in those aged 85 years and older. Influenza-attributable mortality was highest in seasons dominated by A(H3N2). Conclusions: Vaccine uptake with non-adjuvanted, normal-dose vaccines remained high, with evidence of effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B, though poor against A(H3N2), particularly in those aged 75 years and older. Forthcoming availability of newly licensed vaccines with wider use of antivirals can potentially further improve prevention and control of influenza in this group.

Influenza vaccine showed a good preventive effect against influenza-associated hospitalization among elderly patients, during the 2016/17 season in Japan

The 2016/17 influenza season in Japan was characterized by a predominance of influenza A (H3N2) activity; with H3N2 accounting for 85% of all detected influenza virus infections. We assessed the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of an inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (IIV4) in adult patients, using a test-negative case-control design study based on the results of a rapid influenza diagnostic test (RIDT). Between November 2016 and March 2017, a total of 1048 adult patients were enrolled: including 363 RIDT positive for influenza A, 9 RIDT-positive for influenza B, and 676 RIDT-negative. During the 2016/17 season, the overall adjusted VE was 28.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.3-46%). The adjusted VE against influenza A was 27.4% (95%CI: 4.4-45%). The VE against influenza B could not be estimated because of the very low number of influenza B patients. Twenty-nine patients were hospitalized due to influenza-associated illness-during the present study, all of whom were infected with influenza A virus. The adjusted VE, determined using a case-control study, for preventing hospitalization for influenza A infection was 72.6% (95%CI: 30.7-89.1%). In addition, the VE for preventing hospitalization of influenza patients with comorbidities was 78.2% (95%CI: 41.1-92%). Our study showed that, during the 2016/17season, IIV4 was effective for preventing both the onset of influenza and influenza-associated hospitalization.

Influenza A(H3N2) virus variants and patient characteristics during a summer influenza epidemic in Taiwan, 2017

We report a summer influenza epidemic caused by co-circulation of multiple influenza A(H3N2) variants in clade 3C.2a. Compared with other clades, a putative clade 3C.2a.3a was more commonly isolated from severely ill patients; 3C.2a.4 was more commonly isolated in outbreak cases. Time from vaccination to illness onset was significantly shorter in severely ill patients infected with clade 3C.2a.3; characteristics and outcomes of patients infected with different clades were similar. No resistance to antiviral medications was found.

Genetic and antigenic divergence in the influenza A(H3N2) virus circulating between 2016 and 2017 in Thailand

Influenza virus evolves rapidly due to the accumulated genetic variations on the viral sequence. Unlike in North America and Europe, influenza season in the tropical Southeast Asia spans both the rainy and cool seasons. Thus, influenza epidemiology and viral evolution sometimes differ from other regions, which affect the ever-changing efficacy of the vaccine. To monitor the current circulating influenza viruses in this region, we determined the predominant influenza virus strains circulating in Thailand between January 2016 and June 2017 by screening 7,228 samples from patients with influenza-like illness. During this time, influenza A(H3N2) virus was the predominant influenza virus detected. We then phylogenetically compared the hemagglutinin (HA) gene from a subset of these A(H3N2) strains (n = 62) to the reference sequences and evaluated amino acid changes in the dominant antigenic epitopes on the HA protein structure. The divergence of the circulating A(H3N2) from the A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 vaccine strain formed five genetic groups (designated I to V) within the 3C.2a clade. Our results suggest a marked drift of the current circulating A(H3N2) strains in Thailand, which collectively contributed to the declining predicted vaccine effectiveness (VE) from 74% in 2016 down to 48% in 2017.

End-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness in adults and children, United Kingdom, 2016/17

IntroductionThe United Kingdom is in the fourth season of introducing a universal childhood influenza vaccine programme. The 2016/17 season saw early influenza A(H3N2) virus circulation with care home outbreaks and increased excess mortality particularly in those 65 years or older. Virus characterisation data indicated emergence of genetic clusters within the A(H3N2) 3C.2a group which the 2016/17 vaccine strain belonged to. Methods: The test-negative case-control (TNCC) design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed influenza in primary care. Results: Adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates were 39.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.1 to 52.8) against all influenza and 40.6% (95% CI: 19.0 to 56.3) in 18-64-year-olds, but no significant aVE in ≥ 65-year-olds. aVE was 65.8% (95% CI: 30.3 to 83.2) for 2-17-year-olds receiving quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine. Discussion: The findings continue to provide support for the ongoing roll-out of the paediatric vaccine programme, with a need for ongoing evaluation. The importance of effective interventions to protect the ≥ 65-year-olds remains.

Genetic divergence of Influenza A(H3N2) amino acid substitutions mark the beginning of the 2016-2017 winter season in Israel

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccine composition is reevaluated each year due to the frequency and accumulation of genetic changes that influenza viruses undergo. The beginning of the 2016-2017 influenza surveillance period in Israel has been marked by the dominance of influenza A(H3N2).

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the type, subtype, genetic evolution and amino acid substitutions of influenza A(H3N2) viruses detected among community patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and hospitalized patients with respiratory illness in the first weeks of the 2016-2017 influenza season.

STUDY DESIGN

Respiratory samples from community patients with influenza-like illness and from hospitalized patients underwent identification, subtyping and molecular characterization. Hemagglutinin sequences were compared to the vaccine strain, phylogenetic tree was created, and amino acid substitutions were determined.

RESULTS

Influenza A(H3N2) predominated during the early stages of the 2016-2017 influenza season. Noticeably, approximately 20% of community patients and 36% of hospitalized patients, positive for influenza3), received the 2016-2017 influenza vaccine. The influenza A(H3N2) viruses demonstrated genetic divergence from the vaccine strain into three separate subgroups within the 3C.2a clade. One resembled the new 3C.2a1 subclade, one resembled the recently proposed 3C.2a2 subclade and the other was not previously described. Diversity was observed within each subgroup, in terms of additional amino acid substitutions.

CONCLUSIONS

Characterization of the 2016-2017 A(H3N2) influenza viruses is imperative for determining the future influenza vaccine composition.

Interim estimates of the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine against A(H3N2) influenza in adults in South Korea, 2016-2017 season

In the 2016-2017 season, the A(H3N2) influenza epidemic presented an unusual early peak pattern compared with past seasons in South Korea. The interim vaccine effectiveness (VE) of influenza vaccination in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza was estimated using test-negative design through the tertiary hospital-based influenza surveillance system in South Korea. From 1 September, 2016 to 7 January, 2017, adjusted VE of influenza vaccination in preventing laboratory-confirmed A(H3N2) was -52.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], -147.2 to 6.4); -70.0% (95% CI, -212.0 to 7.4) in 19-64 years and 4.3% (95% CI, -137.8 to 61.5) in the elderly. Circulating A(H3N2) viruses belonged to the three phylogenetic subclades of 3C.2a, differently to A/Hong Kong/4801/2014, the current vaccine strain. Amino acid substitutions in hemagglutinin of circulating viruses seem to contribute to low VE. In conclusion, interim VE analysis presented that the protection of laboratory-confirmed influenza by seasonal influenza vaccination did not show the statistical significance in South Korea in the 2016-2017 influenza season.