Circular Policy: A New Approach to Vector and Vector-Borne Diseases' Management in Line with the Global Vector Control Response (2017-2030)

Integrated Vector Management (IVM) has yielded exemplary results in combating and preventing vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and their vectors. It's success and positive outcomes depend on the sound planning, implementation, enforcement, and validation of the locally adapted vector control efforts from the involved national sectors and stakeholders. Nevertheless, current realities create several implications impeding IVM's performance. Hence, there is a need to adjust local IVM plans to several factors, such as (i) the rapidly changing and unpredictable environmental conditions (i.e., climate change, shift on species distribution, invasive species-Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus); (ii) the environmental impacts from human activities (i.e., fossil fuel use, food sources, industry, land use, urbanization and deforestation); (iii) changes in human demographics and the international movement of people (travelers and forcibly displaced persons due to conflicts and severe weather) increasing the risk of contracting and transmitting vector-borne diseases and shifting humanitarian emergencies and societal demands; (iv) the SARS-CoV2 pandemic outbreak and the implication on national public health systems; (v) the continuous flow of technological advancements and newly acquired knowledge; (vi) the realization of the strong link between planetary health and public health. Addressing these factors in IVM can become difficult, taking into consideration the numerous involved sectors, stakeholders, and fields in the management of vectors and vector-borne diseases (VBD). This document proposes and discusses the aspects and steps of a holistic approach, referenced as the Circular Policy, for national and local IVM strategies to be effective and adaptable, capable of providing the optimum outcomes.

Recent progresses and remaining challenges for the detection of Zika virus

Zika virus (ZIKV) has emerged as a particularly notorious mosquito-borne flavivirus, which can lead to a devastating congenital syndrome in the fetuses of pregnant mothers (e.g., microcephaly, spasticity, craniofacial disproportion, miscarriage, and ocular abnormalities) and cause the autoimmune disorder Guillain-Barre' syndrome of adults. Due to its severity and rapid dispersal over several continents, ZIKV has been acknowledged to be a global health concern by the World Health Organization. Unfortunately, the ZIKV has recently resurged in India with the potential for devastating effects. Researchers from all around the world have worked tirelessly to develop effective detection strategies and vaccines for the prevention and control of ZIKV infection. In this review, we comprehensively summarize the most recent research into ZIKV, including the structural biology and evolution, historical overview, pathogenesis, symptoms, and transmission. We then focus on the detection strategies for ZIKV, including viral isolation, serological assays, molecular assays, sensing methods, reverse transcription loop mediated isothermal amplification, transcription-mediated amplification technology, reverse transcription strand invasion based amplification, bioplasmonic paper-based device, and reverse transcription isothermal recombinase polymerase amplification. To conclude, we examine the limitations of currently available strategies for the detection of ZIKV, and outline future opportunities and research challenges.

Using Big Data to Monitor the Introduction and Spread of Chikungunya, Europe, 2017

With regard to fully harvesting the potential of big data, public health lags behind other fields. To determine this potential, we applied big data (air passenger volume from international areas with active chikungunya transmission, Twitter data, and vectorial capacity estimates of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes) to the 2017 chikungunya outbreaks in Europe to assess the risks for virus transmission, virus importation, and short-range dispersion from the outbreak foci. We found that indicators based on voluminous and velocious data can help identify virus dispersion from outbreak foci and that vector abundance and vectorial capacity estimates can provide information on local climate suitability for mosquitoborne outbreaks. In contrast, more established indicators based on Wikipedia and Google Trends search strings were less timely. We found that a combination of novel and disparate datasets can be used in real time to prevent and control emerging and reemerging infectious diseases.

Climate change and One Health

The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction.

Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry

Background: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature but also accelerating the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice. Methods: Literature review. Results: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin and their country of destination or conditions that they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place.Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar. Conclusion: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicabledisease outbreaks.

Surveillance of vector-borne pathogens under imperfect detection: lessons from Chagas disease risk (mis)measurement

Vector-borne pathogens threaten human health worldwide. Despite their critical role in disease prevention, routine surveillance systems often rely on low-complexity pathogen detection tests of uncertain accuracy. In Chagas disease surveillance, optical microscopy (OM) is routinely used for detecting Trypanosoma cruzi in its vectors. Here, we use replicate T. cruzi detection data and hierarchical site-occupancy models to assess the reliability of OM-based T. cruzi surveillance while explicitly accounting for false-negative and false-positive results. We investigated 841 triatomines with OM slides (1194 fresh, 1192 Giemsa-stained) plus conventional (cPCR, 841 assays) and quantitative PCR (qPCR, 1682 assays). Detections were considered unambiguous only when parasitologists unmistakably identified T. cruzi in Giemsa-stained slides. qPCR was >99% sensitive and specific, whereas cPCR was ~100% specific but only ~55% sensitive. In routine surveillance, examination of a single OM slide per vector missed ~50–75% of infections and wrongly scored as infected ~7% of the bugs. qPCR-based and model-based infection frequency estimates were nearly three times higher, on average, than OM-based indices. We conclude that the risk of vector-borne Chagas disease may be substantially higher than routine surveillance data suggest. The hierarchical modelling approach we illustrate can help enhance vector-borne disease surveillance systems when pathogen detection is imperfect.

West Nile virus 'circulation' in Vojvodina, Serbia: Mosquito, bird, horse and human surveillance

Efforts to detect West Nile virus (WNV) in the Vojvodina province, northern Serbia, commenced with human and mosquito surveillance in 2005, followed by horse (2009) and wild bird (2012) surveillance. The knowledge obtained regarding WNV circulation, combined with the need for timely detection of virus activity and risk assessment resulted in the implementation of a national surveillance programme integrating mosquito, horse and bird surveillance in 2014. From 2013, the system showed highly satisfactory results in terms of area specificity (the capacity to indicate the spatial distribution of the risk for human cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease - WNND) and sensitivity to detect virus circulation even at the enzootic level. A small number (n = 50) of Culex pipiens (pipiens and molestus biotypes, and their hybrids) females analysed per trap/night, combined with a high number of specimens in the sample, provided variable results in the early detection capacity at different administrative levels (NUTS2 versus NUTS3). The clustering of infected mosquitoes, horses, birds and human cases of WNND in 2014-2015 was highly significant, following the south-west to north-east direction in Vojvodina (NUTS2 administrative level). Human WNND cases grouped closest with infected mosquitoes in 2014, and with wild birds/mosquitoes in 2015. In 2014, sentinel horses showed better spatial correspondence with human WNND cases than sentinel chickens. Strong correlations were observed between the vector index values and the incidence of human WNND cases recorded at the NUTS2 and NUTS3 levels. From 2010, West Nile virus was detected in mosquitoes sampled at 43 different trap stations across Vojvodina. At 14 stations (32.56%), WNV was detected in two different (consecutive or alternate) years, at 2 stations in 3 different years, and in 1 station during 5 different years. Based on these results, integrated surveillance will be progressively improved to allow evidence-based adoption of preventive public health and mosquito control measures.

Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe

Emerging infectious diseases are of international concern because of the potential for, and impact of, pandemics; however, they are difficult to predict. To identify the drivers of disease emergence, we analyzed infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) detected through epidemic intelligence collected at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) between 2008 and 2013, and compared the observed results with a 2008 ECDC foresight study of projected drivers of future IDTEs in Europe. Among 10 categories of IDTEs, foodborne and waterborne IDTEs were the most common, vaccine-preventable IDTEs caused the highest number of cases, and airborne IDTEs caused the most deaths. Observed drivers for each IDTE were sorted into three main groups: globalization and environmental drivers contributed to 61% of all IDTEs, public health system drivers contributed to 21%, and social and demographic drivers to 18%. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that four of the top five drivers for observed IDTEs were in the globalization and environment group. In the observational study, the globalization and environment group was related to all IDTE categories, but only to five of eight categories in the foresight study. Directly targeting these drivers with public health interventions may diminish the chances of IDTE occurrence from the outset.

Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus.

METHODS

With a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population.

RESULTS

External validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD = 0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities.

Recent study on canine vector-borne zoonoses in southern Slovakia - serologic survey

Over the last decade a significant spread of Canine Vector Borne Diseases has been recorded in Central Europe. The aim of the study described here, was to collect current data on the occurrence and distribution of three major canine vector-borne pathogens in the veterinary clinical practice by a newly-developed commercial ELISA test for the detection of Dirofilaria immitis antigen as well as specific circulating antibodies to Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato. Circulating D. immitis antigen was detected in five of 180 investigated sera samples. Two of D. immitis seropositive dogs revealed also microfilariae of D. repens in the blood and three of them were negative for the presence of microfilariae in the Knott's test. From the practical point of view, the finding of D. immitis occult infections might influence existing knowledge about distribution of this species among dogs in Central European countries. In 11.7% of the tested dogs the presence of specific antibodies against A. phagocytophilum was confirmed. Antibodies against B. burgdorferi s.l. were detected in 2.8% of tested sera samples. Coinfection with A. phagocytophilum and B. burgdorferi s.l. was observed in two dogs from Košice district in south-eastern Slovakia. Our data point toward the presence of Canine Vector Borne Diseases in the studied area. Therefore, veterinarians should include these diseases in their differential diagnosis and higher awareness should be focused also on prophylactic measures to prevent the pathogens transmission by arthropod vectors.

International dispersal of dengue through air travel: importation risk for Europe

Background

The worldwide distribution of dengue is expanding, in part due to globalized traffic and trade. Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for dengue viruses (DENV) and is now established in numerous regions of Europe. Viremic travellers arriving in Europe from dengue-affected areas of the world can become catalysts of local outbreaks in Europe. Local dengue transmission in Europe is extremely rare, and the last outbreak occurred in 1927–28 in Greece. However, autochthonous transmission was reported from France in September 2010, and from Croatia between August and October 2010.

Methodology

We compiled data on areas affected by dengue in 2010 from web resources and surveillance reports, and collected national dengue importation data. We developed a hierarchical regression model to quantify the relationship between the number of reported dengue cases imported into Europe and the volume of airline travellers arriving from dengue-affected areas internationally.

Principal Findings

In 2010, over 5.8 million airline travellers entered Europe from dengue-affected areas worldwide, of which 703,396 arrived at 36 airports situated in areas where Ae. albopictus has been recorded. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for imported dengue into European countries was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17) for every increase of 10,000 travellers; in August, September, and October the rate ratios were 1.70 (95%CI: 1.23–2.35), 1.46 (95%CI: 1.02–2.10), and 1.35 (95%CI: 1.01–1.81), respectively. Two Italian cities where the vector is present received over 50% of all travellers from dengue-affected areas, yet with the continuing vector expansion more cities will be implicated in the future. In fact, 38% more travellers arrived in 2013 into those parts of Europe where Ae. albopictus has recently been introduced, compared to 2010.

Conclusions

The highest risk of dengue importation in 2010 was restricted to three months and can be ranked according to arriving traveller volume from dengue-affected areas into cities where the vector is present. The presence of the vector is a necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for DENV onward transmission, which depends on a number of additional factors. However, our empirical model can provide spatio-temporal elements to public health interventions.

The global disease burden of dengue is staggering. Continuous expansion and vaccine failures illustrate the limitations of current dengue control efforts. Novel approaches and additional tools are required to combat and contain the disease. In Europe, dengue infections are rare and the last outbreak of dengue occurred in the late 1920s, in Greece. In 2010, however, local transmission occurred in France and Croatia. Based on 2010 data, we present a novel quantitative model of the risk of dengue importation for Europe. The 2010 model predicts the risk of dengue importation to be greatest for Milan, Rome and Barcelona in August, September and October, precisely when vector activity is the highest. With the current expansion of the vector in Europe, more cities are projected to be at risk in the future. Thus, the model based on 2010 data quantifies the likelihood and timing of importation. This approach employs global travel data to assess dengue importation risk in the EU and illustrates how quantitative models could tailor infectious disease control to certain regions and time periods.

Mosquito surveillance for prevention and control of emerging mosquito-borne diseases in Portugal - 2008-2014

Mosquito surveillance in Europe is essential for early detection of invasive species with public health importance and prevention and control of emerging pathogens. In Portugal, a vector surveillance national program-REVIVE (REde de VIgilância de VEctores)-has been operating since 2008 under the custody of Portuguese Ministry of Health. The REVIVE is responsible for the nationwide surveillance of hematophagous arthropods. Surveillance for West Nile virus (WNV) and other flaviviruses in adult mosquitoes is continuously performed. Adult mosquitoes-collected mainly with Centre for Disease Control light traps baited with CO2-and larvae were systematically collected from a wide range of habitats in 20 subregions (NUTS III). Around 500,000 mosquitoes were trapped in more than 3,000 trap nights and 3,500 positive larvae surveys, in which 24 species were recorded. The viral activity detected in mosquito populations in these years has been limited to insect specific flaviviruses (ISFs) non-pathogenic to humans. Rather than emergency response, REVIVE allows timely detection of changes in abundance and species diversity providing valuable knowledge to health authorities, which may take control measures of vector populations reducing its impact on public health. This work aims to present the REVIVE operation and to expose data regarding mosquito species composition and detected ISFs.

The experience of West Nile virus integrated surveillance system in the Emilia-Romagna region: five years of implementation, Italy, 2009 to 2013

Predicting West Nile virus (WNV) circulation and the risk of WNV epidemics is difficult due to complex interactions of multiple factors involved. Surveillance systems that timely detect virus activity in targeted areas, and allow evidence-based risk assessments may therefore be necessary. Since 2009, a system integrating environmental (mosquitoes and birds) and human surveillance has been implemented and progressively improved in the Emilia-Romagna region, Italy. The objective is to increase knowledge of WNV circulation and to reduce the probability of virus transmission via blood, tissue and organ donation. As of 2013, the system has shown highly satisfactory results in terms of early detection capacity (the environmental surveillance component allowed detection of WNV circulation 3–4 weeks before human cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) occurred), sensitivity (capacity to detect virus circulation even at the enzootic level) and area specificity (capacity to indicate the spatial distribution of the risk for WNND). Strong correlations were observed between the vector index values and the number of human WNND cases registered at the province level. Taking into consideration two scenarios of surveillance, the first with environmental surveillance and the second without, the total costs for the period from 2009 to 2013 were reduced when environmental surveillance was considered (EUR 2.093 million for the first scenario vs EUR 2.560 million for the second). Environmental surveillance helped to reduce costs by enabling a more targeted blood unit testing strategy. The inclusion of environmental surveillance also increased the efficiency of detecting infected blood units and further allowed evidence-based adoption of preventative public health measures.