Use of phylogenetics in the molecular epidemiology and evolutionary studies of viral infections

Contribution of phylogenetics to understanding the evolution and epidemiology of dengue virus

Dengue virus (DENV) is one of the most important arboviral pathogens in the tropics and subtropics, and nearly one‐third of the world's population is at risk of infection. The transmission of DENV involves a sylvatic cycle between nonhuman primates (NHP) and Aedes genus mosquitoes, and an endemic cycle between human hosts and predominantly Aedes aegypti. DENV belongs to the genus Flavivirus of the family Flaviviridae and consists of four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV‐1‐4). Phylogenetic analyses of DENV have revealed its origin, epidemiology, and the drivers that determine its molecular evolution in nature. This review discusses how phylogenetic research has improved our understanding of DENV evolution and how it affects viral ecology and improved our ability to analyze and predict future DENV emergence.

Three highly variable genome regions of the four dengue virus serotypes can accurately recapitulate the CDS phylogeny

The circulation of the four-dengue virus (DENV) serotypes has significantly increased in recent years, accompanied by an increase in viral genetic diversity. In order to conduct disease surveillance and understand DENV evolution and its effects on virus transmission and disease, efficient and accurate methods for phylogenetic classification are required. Phylogenetic analysis of different viral genes sequences is the most used method, the envelope gene (E) being the most frequently selected target. We explored the genetic variability of the four DENV serotypes throughout their complete coding sequence (CDS) of sequences available in GenBank and used genomic regions of different variability rate to recapitulate the phylogeny obtained with the DENV CDS. Our results indicate that the use of high or low variable regions accurately recapitulate the phylogeny obtained with CDS of sequences from different DENV genotypes. However, when analyzing the phylogeny of a single genotype, highly variable regions performed better in recapitulating the distance branch length, topology, and support of the CDS phylogeny. The use of three concatenated highly variable regions was not statistically different in distance branch length and support to that obtained in CDS phylogeny.•This study demonstrated the ability of highly variable regions of the DENV genome to recapitulate the phylogeny obtained with the full coding sequence (CDS).•The use of genomic regions of high or low variability did not affect the performance in recapitulating the phylogeny obtained with CDS from different genotypes. However, when phylogeny was analyzed for sequences from a single genotype, highly variable regions performed better in recapitulating the distance branch length, topology, and support of the CDS phylogeny.•The use of concatenated highly variable genome regions represent a useful option for recapitulating genome-wide phylogenies in analyses of sequences belonging to the same DENV genotype.

PhyloMissForest: a random forest framework to construct phylogenetic trees with missing data

Background

In the pursuit of a better understanding of biodiversity, evolutionary biologists rely on the study of phylogenetic relationships to illustrate the course of evolution. The relationships among natural organisms, depicted in the shape of phylogenetic trees, not only help to understand evolutionary history but also have a wide range of additional applications in science. One of the most challenging problems that arise when building phylogenetic trees is the presence of missing biological data. More specifically, the possibility of inferring wrong phylogenetic trees increases proportionally to the amount of missing values in the input data. Although there are methods proposed to deal with this issue, their applicability and accuracy is often restricted by different constraints.

Results

We propose a framework, called PhyloMissForest, to impute missing entries in phylogenetic distance matrices and infer accurate evolutionary relationships. PhyloMissForest is built upon a random forest structure that infers the missing entries of the input data, based on the known parts of it. PhyloMissForest contributes with a robust and configurable framework that incorporates multiple search strategies and machine learning, complemented by phylogenetic techniques, to provide a more accurate inference of lost phylogenetic distances. We evaluate our framework by examining three real-world datasets, two DNA-based sequence alignments and one containing amino acid data, and two additional instances with simulated DNA data. Moreover, we follow a design of experiments methodology to define the hyperparameter values of our algorithm, which is a concise method, preferable in comparison to the well-known exhaustive parameters search. By varying the percentages of missing data from 5% to 60%, we generally outperform the state-of-the-art alternative imputation techniques in the tests conducted on real DNA data. In addition, significant improvements in execution time are observed for the amino acid instance. The results observed on simulated data also denote the attainment of improved imputations when dealing with large percentages of missing data.

Conclusions

By merging multiple search strategies, machine learning, and phylogenetic techniques, PhyloMissForest provides a highly customizable and robust framework for phylogenetic missing data imputation, with significant topological accuracy and effective speedups over the state of the art.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s12864-022-08540-6).

Senecavirus A Enhances Its Adaptive Evolution via Synonymous Codon Bias Evolution

Synonymous codon bias in the viral genome affects protein translation and gene expression, suggesting that the synonymous codon mutant plays an essential role in influencing virulence and evolution. However, how the recessive mutant form contributes to virus evolvability remains elusive. In this paper, we characterize how the Senecavirus A (SVA), a picornavirus, utilizes synonymous codon mutations to influence its evolution, resulting in the adaptive evolution of the virus to adverse environments. The phylogenetic tree and Median-joining (MJ)-Network of these SVA lineages worldwide were constructed to reveal SVA three-stage genetic development clusters. Furthermore, we analyzed the codon bias of the SVA genome of selected strains and found that SVA could increase the GC content of the third base of some amino acid synonymous codons to enhance the viral RNA adaptive evolution. Our results highlight the impact of recessive mutation of virus codon bias on the evolution of the SVA and uncover a previously underappreciated evolutionary strategy for SVA. They also underline the importance of understanding the genetic evolution of SVA and how SVA adapts to the adverse effects of external stress.

Pandemic-scale phylogenetics

Phylogenetics has been central to the genomic surveillance, epidemiology and contact tracing efforts during the COVD-19 pandemic. But the massive scale of genomic sequencing has rendered the pre-pandemic tools inadequate for comprehensive phylogenetic analyses. Here, we discuss the phylogenetic package that we developed to address the needs imposed by this pandemic. The package incorporates several pandemic-specific optimization and parallelization techniques and comprises four programs: UShER, matOptimize, RIPPLES and matUtils. Using high-performance computing, UShER and matOptimize maintain and refine daily a massive mutation-annotated phylogenetic tree consisting of all SARS-CoV-2 sequences available in online repositories. With UShER and RIPPLES, individual labs - even with modest compute resources - incorporate newly-sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes on this phylogeny and discover evidence for recombination in real-time. With matUtils, they rapidly query and visualize massive SARS-CoV-2 phylogenies. These tools have empowered scientists worldwide to study the SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission at an unprecedented scale, resolution and speed.

Eradication of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) in Cattle in Switzerland: Lessons Taught by the Complex Biology of the Virus

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) and related ruminant pestiviruses occur worldwide and cause considerable economic losses in livestock and severely impair animal welfare. Switzerland started a national mandatory control programme in 2008 aiming to eradicate BVD from the Swiss cattle population. The peculiar biology of pestiviruses with the birth of persistently infected (PI) animals upon in utero infection in addition to transient infection of naïve animals requires vertical and horizontal transmission to be taken into account. Initially, every animal was tested for PI within the first year, followed by testing for the presence of virus in all newborn calves for the next four years. Prevalence of calves being born PI thus diminished substantially from around 1.4% to <0.02%, which enabled broad testing for the virus to be abandoned and switching to economically more favourable serological surveillance with vaccination being prohibited. By the end of 2020, more than 99.5% of all cattle farms in Switzerland were free of BVDV but eliminating the last remaining PI animals turned out to be a tougher nut to crack. In this review, we describe the Swiss BVD eradication scheme and the hurdles that were encountered and still remain during the implementation of the programme. The main challenge is to rapidly identify the source of infection in case of a positive result during antibody surveillance, and to efficiently protect the cattle population from re-infection, particularly in light of the endemic presence of the related pestivirus border disease virus (BDV) in sheep. As a consequence of these measures, complete eradication will (hopefully) soon be achieved, and the final step will then be the continuous documentation of freedom of disease.

Molecular Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Genetic Lineages in Jordan: Tracking the Introduction and Spread of COVID-19 UK Variant of Concern at a Country Level

The rapid evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is manifested by the emergence of an ever-growing pool of genetic lineages. The aim of this study was to analyze the genetic variability of SARS-CoV-2 in Jordan, with a special focus on the UK variant of concern. A total of 579 SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected in Jordan were subjected to maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. Genetic lineage assignment was undertaken using the Pango system. Amino acid substitutions were investigated using the Protein Variation Effect Analyzer (PROVEAN) tool. A total of 19 different SARS-CoV-2 genetic lineages were detected, with the most frequent being the first Jordan lineage (B.1.1.312), first detected in August 2020 (n = 424, 73.2%). This was followed by the second Jordan lineage (B.1.36.10), first detected in September 2020 (n = 62, 10.7%), and the UK variant of concern (B.1.1.7; n = 36, 6.2%). In the spike gene region, the molecular signature for B.1.1.312 was the non-synonymous mutation A24432T resulting in a deleterious amino acid substitution (Q957L), while the molecular signature for B.1.36.10 was the synonymous mutation C22444T. Bayesian analysis revealed that the UK variant of concern (B.1.1.7) was introduced into Jordan in late November 2020 (mean estimate); four weeks earlier than its official reporting in the country. In Jordan, an exponential increase in COVID-19 cases due to B.1.1.7 lineage coincided with the new year 2021. The highest proportion of phylogenetic clustering was detected for the B.1.1.7 lineage. The amino acid substitution D614G in the spike glycoprotein was exclusively present in the country from July 2020 onwards. Two Jordanian lineages dominated infections in the country, with continuous introduction/emergence of new lineages. In Jordan, the rapid spread of the UK variant of concern should be monitored closely. The spread of SARS-CoV-2 mutants appeared to be related to the founder effect; nevertheless, the biological impact of certain mutations should be further investigated.

Characteristics of HIV-1 molecular transmission networks and drug resistance among men who have sex with men in Tianjin, China (2014-2018)

Background

In Tianjin, China, there is a relatively high prevalence of HIV in men who have sex with men (MSM). The number of HIV cases in Tianjin is also increasing. We investigated the HIV molecular transmission network, genetic tropisms, and drug resistance mutations in Tianjin.

Methods

Blood samples were collected from 510 newly diagnosed antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve HIV-1-infected subjects among MSM in Tianjin. Partial pol and env genes were sequenced and used for phylogenetic, genetic tropism, and genotypic drug resistance analyses. Molecular clusters were identified with 1.5% genetic distance and 90% bootstrap support.

Results

Among the 436 HIV-1 pol sequences obtained from the study participants, various genotypes were identified, including CRF01_AE (56.9%), CRF07_BC (27.8%), B (7.3%), CRF55_01B (4.1%), unique recombinant forms (URFs) (3.7%), and CRF59_01B (0.2%). A higher prevalence of X4 viruses was observed in individuals infected with CRF55_01B (56.3%) and CRF01_AE (46.2%) than with other subtypes. Of all 110 sequences in the 36 clusters, 62 (56.4%) were observed in 23 CRF01_AE clusters and 18 (16.4%) in four CRF07_BC clusters. Eight sequences clustered with at least one other shared the same drug resistance mutation (DRM). In different cluster sizes, the distributions of individuals by age, presence of sexually transmitted disease, and presence of DRMs, were significantly different.

Conclusion

We revealed the characteristics of HIV molecular transmission, tropism, and DRMs of ART-naïve HIV-infected individuals among the MSM population in Tianjin. Identifying infected persons at risk of transmission is necessary for proposing counseling and treating these patients to reduce the risk of HIV transmission.

Betacoronavirus Genomes: How Genomic Information has been Used to Deal with Past Outbreaks and the COVID-19 Pandemic

In the 21st century, three highly pathogenic betacoronaviruses have emerged, with an alarming rate of human morbidity and case fatality. Genomic information has been widely used to understand the pathogenesis, animal origin and mode of transmission of coronaviruses in the aftermath of the 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreaks. Furthermore, genome sequencing and bioinformatic analysis have had an unprecedented relevance in the battle against the 2019-2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the newest and most devastating outbreak caused by a coronavirus in the history of mankind. Here, we review how genomic information has been used to tackle outbreaks caused by emerging, highly pathogenic, betacoronavirus strains, emphasizing on SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. We focus on shared genomic features of the betacoronaviruses and the application of genomic information to phylogenetic analysis, molecular epidemiology and the design of diagnostic systems, potential drugs and vaccine candidates.

Cervical Dysplasia, Infection, and Phylogeny of Human Papillomavirus in HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Women at a Reproductive Health Clinic in Nairobi, Kenya

High risk human Papillomavirus (HPV) infections ultimately cause cervical cancer. Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected women often present with multiple high-risk HPV infections and are thus at a higher risk of developing cervical cancer. However, information on the circulating high-risk HPV genotypes in Kenya in both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women is still scanty. This study is aimed at determining the phylogeny and the HPV genotypes in women with respect to their HIV status and at correlating this with cytology results. This study was carried out among women attending the Reproductive Health Clinic at Kenyatta National Hospital, a referral hospital in Nairobi, Kenya. A cross-sectional study recruited a total of 217 women aged 18 to 50 years. Paired blood and cervical samples were obtained from consenting participants. Blood was used for serological HIV screening while cervical smears were used for cytology followed by HPV DNA extraction, HPV DNA PCR amplification, and phylogenetic analysis. Out of 217 participants, 29 (13.4%) were HIV seropositive, while 68 (31.3%) were positive for HPV DNA. Eight (3.7%) of the participants had abnormal cervical cytology. High-risk HPV 16 was the most prevalent followed by HPV 81, 73, 35, and 52. One participant had cervical cancer, was HIV infected, and had multiple high-risk infections with HPV 26, 35, and 58. HPV 16, 6, and 81 had two variants each. HPV 16 in this study clustered with HPV from Iran and Africa. This study shows the circulation of other HPV 35, 52, 73, 81, 31, 51, 45, 58, and 26 in the Kenyan population that play important roles in cancer etiology but are not included in the HPV vaccine. Data from this study could inform vaccination strategies. Additionally, this data will be useful in future epidemiological studies of HPV in Nairobi as the introduction or development of new variants can be detected.

Origin of HAV strains responsible for 2016-2017 outbreak among MSM: Viral phylodynamics in Lazio region

In Europe HAV infection occurs mainly among specific risk groups, such as consumers of specific food. Sexual transmission of HAV has been demonstrated, particularly among Men-Who-Have-Sex-With-Men (MSM), causing MSM-specific outbreaksin Europe. Here we report a molecular epidemiologic and phylodynamic analysis on HAV sequences in Lazio (central Italy)to identify genetic background and the phylogenetic relations, and test the HAV infection dynamics during a large outbreak through phylodynamic model.Among all HAV sequences found during 2013-2018 in Lazio, low genetic diversity was observed in HAV population in 2016 and 2017, along with high frequenciesVRD_521_2016and RIVM-HAV16-090, suggesting a large expansion event of viral population. The initial expansion of both VRD_521_2016 and RIVM-HAV16-090 clusters dated back to 2012 (95% HPD:2006-2015). During the2016-2017outbreak in Lazio region, the Re peaked around mid-2016, with a value of 1.73 (95% HPD: 1.03-2.37), consistent with incidence trend of AHA cases in Lazio between 2016 and mid-2017. This study showed the magnitude of HAV outbreak in Lazio during 2016-2017, demonstrating the epidemic continuity to MSM-specific outbreak in Europe. The HAV dataset is available on interactive phylodynamic platform https://nextstrain.org to real-time update of future outbreaks.

Phylogenetic surveillance of travel-related Zika virus infections through whole-genome sequencing methods

In 2018, the World Health Organization identified the Zika virus (ZIKV) as a pathogen that should be prioritized for public health research due to its epidemic potential. In this study, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of travel-acquired ZIKV infections was used to examine the limitations of phylogenetic analysis. WGS and phylogenetic analysis were performed to investigate geographic clustering of samples from five Canadians with travel-acquired ZIKV infections and to assess the limitations of phylogenetic analysis of ZIKV sequences using a phylogenetic cluster approach. Genomic variability of ZIKV samples was assessed and for context, compared with hepatitis C virus (HCV) samples. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed the suspected region of ZIKV infection for one of five samples and one sample failed to cluster with sequences from its suspected country of infection. Travel-acquired ZIKV samples depicted low genomic variability relative to HCV samples. A floating patristic distance threshold classified all pre-2000 ZIKV sequences into separate clusters, while only Cambodian, Peruvian, Malaysian, and South Korean sequences were similarly classifiable. While phylogenetic analysis of ZIKV data can identify the broad geographical region of ZIKV infection, ZIKV’s low genomic variability is likely to limit precise interpretations of phylogenetic analysis of the origins of travel-related cases.

Superimposing incident sexually transmitted infections on HIV phylogram to investigate possible misclassification of men who have sex with men as heterosexuals in a cohort in Antwerp, Belgium

In this study, we assessed if the superimposition of incident sexually transmitted infections (STIs) on HIV phylogenetic analyses could reveal possible sexual behaviour misclassifications in our HIV-infected population. HIV-1 sequences collected between 1997 and 2014 from 1169 individuals attending a HIV clinic in Antwerp, Belgium were analysed to infer a partial HIV transmission network. Individual demographic, clinical and laboratory data collected during routine HIV follow-up were used to compare clustered and non-clustered individuals using logistic regression analyses. In total, 438 (37.5%) individuals were identified in 136 clusters, including 76 transmission pairs and 60 clusters consisting of three or more individuals. Individuals in a cluster were more likely to have a history of syphilis, Chlamydia and/or gonorrhoea (P < 0.05); however, when analyses were stratified by HIV transmission risk groups (heterosexual and men who have sex with men [MSM]), this association only remained significant for heterosexuals with syphilis (P = 0.001). Under closer scrutiny, this association was driven by six heterosexual men who were located in six almost exclusively MSM clusters. A parsimonious conclusion is that these six individuals were potentially misclassified as heterosexual. Improving the accuracy of sexual behaviour reporting could improve care.

Phylogenetics Algorithms and Applications

Phylogenetics is a powerful approach in finding evolution of current day species. By studying phylogenetic trees, scientists gain a better understanding of how species have evolved while explaining the similarities and differences among species. The phylogenetic study can help in analysing the evolution and the similarities among diseases and viruses, and further help in prescribing their vaccines against them. This paper explores computational solutions for building phylogeny of species along with highlighting benefits of alignment-free methods of phylogenetics. The paper has also discussed the application of phylogenetic study in disease diagnosis and evolution.

Epidemiological and molecular analysis of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in Shanghai, China, 2013-2017

Background

Human infections with a novel avian influenza A virus (H7N9) were reported in Shanghai municipality, China, at the beginning of 2013. High-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H7N9 virus emerged in late February 2017 along with existing low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H7N9 virus, and this has the potential to develop into a pandemic that could be harmful to humans.

Methods

To elucidate the epidemiological characteristics of H7N9-infected cases from 2013 to 2017 in Shanghai, data on the 59 laboratory-confirmed human cases and 26 bird and environmental contamination cases were collected from the WHO website and Food and Agriculture Organization Emergency Prevention System for Animal Health (FAO EMPRES-AH). Full-length sequences of H7N9 viruses that emerged in Shanghai were collected from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data to analyze the evolutionary and genetic features.

Results

We found that genetically different strains emerged in every epidemic in Shanghai, and most of the circulating H7N9 strains had affinity to human-type receptors, with the characteristics of high-virulence and low-pathogenic influenza viruses. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the Shanghai chicken strains are closely related to the HPAI H7N9 virus A/Guangdong/17SF003/2016, indicating that this viral strain is of avian origin and generated from the LPAI H7N9 viruses in Shanghai. The gradual decrease in H7N9 human infection in Shanghai was probably due to the control measures taken by the Shanghai government and the enhanced public awareness leading to a reduced risk of H7N9 virus infection. However, LPAI H7N9 viruses from poultry and environmental samples were continually detected in Shanghai across the epidemics, increasing the risk of new emerging H7N9 outbreaks.

Conclusion

It is important to consistently obtain sufficient surveillance data and implement prevention measures against H7N9 viruses in Shanghai municipality.

A systematic review of spatial decision support systems in public health informatics supporting the identification of high risk areas for zoonotic disease outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Zoonotic diseases account for a substantial portion of infectious disease outbreaks and burden on public health programs to maintain surveillance and preventative measures. Taking advantage of new modeling approaches and data sources have become necessary in an interconnected global community. To facilitate data collection, analysis, and decision-making, the number of spatial decision support systems reported in the last 10 years has increased. This systematic review aims to describe characteristics of spatial decision support systems developed to assist public health officials in the management of zoonotic disease outbreaks.

METHODS

A systematic search of the Google Scholar database was undertaken for published articles written between 2008 and 2018, with no language restriction. A manual search of titles and abstracts using Boolean logic and keyword search terms was undertaken using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data extraction included items such as spatial database management, visualizations, and report generation.

RESULTS

For this review we screened 34 full text articles. Design and reporting quality were assessed, resulting in a final set of 12 articles which were evaluated on proposed interventions and identifying characteristics were described. Multisource data integration, and user centered design were inconsistently applied, though indicated diverse utilization of modeling techniques.

CONCLUSIONS

The characteristics, data sources, development and modeling techniques implemented in the design of recent SDSS that target zoonotic disease outbreak were described. There are still many challenges to address during the design process to effectively utilize the value of emerging data sources and modeling methods. In the future, development should adhere to comparable standards for functionality and system development such as user input for system requirements, and flexible interfaces to visualize data that exist on different scales. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018110466.

HIV-1 diversity among young women in rural South Africa: HPTN 068

BACKGROUND

South Africa has one of the highest rates of HIV-1 (HIV) infection world-wide, with the highest rates among young women. We analyzed the molecular epidemiology and evolutionary history of HIV in young women attending high school in rural South Africa.

METHODS

Samples were obtained from the HPTN 068 randomized controlled trial, which evaluated the effect of cash transfers for school attendance on HIV incidence in women aged 13-20 years (Mpumalanga province, 2011-2015). Plasma samples from HIV-infected participants were analyzed using the ViroSeq HIV-1 Genotyping assay. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using 200 pol gene study sequences and 2,294 subtype C reference sequences from South Africa. Transmission clusters were identified using Cluster Picker and HIV-TRACE, and were characterized using demographic and other epidemiological data. Phylodynamic analyses were performed using the BEAST software.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 2,533 young women who were followed through their expected high school graduation date (main study); some participants had a post-study assessment (follow-up study). Two-hundred-twelve of 2,533 enrolled young women had HIV infection. HIV pol sequences were obtained for 94% (n = 201/212) of the HIV-infected participants. All but one of the sequences were HIV-1 subtype C; the non-C subtype sequence was excluded from further analysis. Median pairwise genetic distance between the subtype C sequences was 6.4% (IQR: 5.6-7.2). Overall, 26% of study sequences fell into 21 phylogenetic clusters with 2-6 women per cluster. Thirteen (62%) clusters included women who were HIV-infected at enrollment. Clustering was not associated with study arm, demographic or other epidemiological factors. The estimated date of origin of HIV subtype C in the study population was 1958 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 1931-1980), and the median estimated substitution rate among study pol sequences was 1.98x10-3 (95% HPD: 1.15x10-3-2.81x10-3) per site per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Phylogenetic analysis suggests that multiple HIV subtype C sublineages circulate among school age girls in South Africa. There were no substantive differences in the molecular epidemiology of HIV between control and intervention arms in the HPTN 068 trial.

Understanding dengue virus evolution to support epidemic surveillance and counter-measure development

Dengue virus (DENV) causes a profound burden of morbidity and mortality, and its global burden is rising due to the co-circulation of four divergent DENV serotypes in the ecological context of globalization, travel, climate change, urbanization, and expansion of the geographic range of the Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus vectors. Understanding DENV evolution offers valuable opportunities to enhance surveillance and response to DENV epidemics via advances in RNA virus sequencing, bioinformatics, phylogenetic and other computational biology methods. Here we provide a scoping overview of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of DENV and the range of ways that evolutionary analyses can be applied as a public health tool against this arboviral pathogen.

Evidence of exposure of domestic pigs to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in Nigeria

Avian influenza viruses (AIV) potentially transmit to swine as shown by experiments, where further reassortment may contribute to the generation of pandemic strains. Associated risks of AIV inter-species transmission are greater in countries like Nigeria with recurrent epidemics of highly pathogenic AI (HPAI) in poultry and significant pig population. Analysis of 129 tracheal swab specimens collected from apparently healthy pigs at slaughterhouse during presence of HPAI virus H5N1 in poultry in Nigeria for influenza A by RT-qPCR yielded 43 positive samples. Twenty-two could be determined by clade specific RT-qPCR as belonging to the H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1c and confirmed by partial hemagglutinin (HA) sequence analysis. In addition, 500 swine sera were screened for antibodies against influenza A virus nucleoprotein and H5 HA using competition ELISAs and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) tests. Serologically, 222 (44.4%) and 42 (8.4%) sera were positive for influenza A virus NP and H5 antibodies, respectively. Sera reacted to H5N1 and A/H1N1pdm09 strains by HI suggesting exposure of the Nigerian domestic pig population to these viruses. We report for the first time in Nigeria, exposure of domestic pigs to H5N1 virus. This poses potential public health and pandemic risk due to interspecies transmission of avian and human influenza viruses.

Molecular epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of viral acute respiratory tract infections in young children. The virus is characterised by distinct seasonality that is dependent upon the latitude and its ability to cause reinfection. Respiratory syncytial virus demonstrates a complex molecular epidemiology pattern as multiple strains and/or genotypes cocirculate during a single epidemic. Previous studies have investigated the relationship between RSV genetic diversity, reinfection, and clinical features. Here, we review the evidence behind this relationship together with the impact that the advancement of whole genome sequencing will have upon our understanding and the need for reconsidering the classification of RSV genotypes.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 Clade 2.3.4.4b in Germany in 2016/2017

Here, we report on the occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4b in Germany. Between November 8, 2016, and September 30, 2017, more than 1,150 cases of HPAI H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4b in wild birds and 107 outbreaks in birds kept in captivity (92 poultry holdings and 15 zoos/animal parks) were reported in Germany. This HPAI epidemic is the most severe recorded in Germany so far. The viruses were apparently introduced by migratory birds, sparking an epidemic among wild birds across Germany with occasional incursions into poultry holdings, zoos and animal parks, which were usually rapidly detected and controlled by stamping out. HPAI viruses (mainly subtype H5N8, in a few cases also H5N5) were found in dead wild birds of at least 53 species. The affected wild birds were water birds (including gulls, storks, herons, and cormorants) and scavenging birds (birds of prey, owls, and crows). In a number of cases, substantial gaps in farm biosecurity may have eased virus entry into the holdings. In a second wave of the epidemic starting from February 2017, there was epidemiological and molecular evidence for virus transmission of the infections between commercial turkey holdings in an area of high poultry density, which caused approximately 25% of the total number of outbreaks in poultry. Biosecurity measures in poultry holdings should be adapted. This includes, inter alia, wearing of stable-specific protective clothing and footwear, cleaning, and disinfection of equipment that has been in contact with birds and prevention of contacts between poultry and wild water birds.

The European Classical Swine Fever Virus Database: Blueprint for a Pathogen-Specific Sequence Database with Integrated Sequence Analysis Tools

Molecular epidemiology has become an indispensable tool in the diagnosis of diseases and in tracing the infection routes of pathogens. Due to advances in conventional sequencing and the development of high throughput technologies, the field of sequence determination is in the process of being revolutionized. Platforms for sharing sequence information and providing standardized tools for phylogenetic analyses are becoming increasingly important. The database (DB) of the European Union (EU) and World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) Reference Laboratory for classical swine fever offers one of the world’s largest semi-public virus-specific sequence collections combined with a module for phylogenetic analysis. The classical swine fever (CSF) DB (CSF-DB) became a valuable tool for supporting diagnosis and epidemiological investigations of this highly contagious disease in pigs with high socio-economic impacts worldwide. The DB has been re-designed and now allows for the storage and analysis of traditionally used, well established genomic regions and of larger genomic regions including complete viral genomes. We present an application example for the analysis of highly similar viral sequences obtained in an endemic disease situation and introduce the new geographic “CSF Maps” tool. The concept of this standardized and easy-to-use DB with an integrated genetic typing module is suited to serve as a blueprint for similar platforms for other human or animal viruses.

Is Predominant Clonal Evolution a Common Evolutionary Adaptation to Parasitism in Pathogenic Parasitic Protozoa, Fungi, Bacteria, and Viruses?

We propose that predominant clonal evolution (PCE) in microbial pathogens be defined as restrained recombination on an evolutionary scale, with genetic exchange scarce enough to not break the prevalent pattern of clonal population structure. The main features of PCE are (1) strong linkage disequilibrium, (2) the widespread occurrence of stable genetic clusters blurred by occasional bouts of genetic exchange ('near-clades'), (3) the existence of a "clonality threshold", beyond which recombination is efficiently countered by PCE, and near-clades irreversibly diverge. We hypothesize that the PCE features are not mainly due to natural selection but also chiefly originate from in-built genetic properties of pathogens. We show that the PCE model obtains even in microbes that have been considered as 'highly recombining', such as Neisseria meningitidis, and that some clonality features are observed even in Plasmodium, which has been long described as panmictic. Lastly, we provide evidence that PCE features are also observed in viruses, taking into account their extremely fast genetic turnover. The PCE model provides a convenient population genetic framework for any kind of micropathogen. It makes it possible to describe convenient units of analysis (clones and near-clades) for all applied studies. Due to PCE features, these units of analysis are stable in space and time, and clearly delimited. The PCE model opens up the possibility of revisiting the problem of species definition in these organisms. We hypothesize that PCE constitutes a major evolutionary strategy for protozoa, fungi, bacteria, and viruses to adapt to parasitism.

Sources of HIV infection among men having sex with men and implications for prevention

New HIV diagnoses among men having sex with men (MSM) have not decreased appreciably in most countries, even though care and prevention services have been scaled up substantially in the past 20 years. To maximize the impact of prevention strategies, it is crucial to quantify the sources of transmission at the population level. We used viral sequence and clinical patient data from one of Europe's nationwide cohort studies to estimate probable sources of transmission for 617 recently infected MSM. Seventy-one percent of transmissions were from undiagnosed men, 6% from men who had initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART), 1% from men with no contact to care for at least 18 months, and 43% from those in their first year of infection. The lack of substantial reductions in incidence among Dutch MSM is not a result of ineffective ART provision or inadequate retention in care. In counterfactual modeling scenarios, 19% of these past cases could have been averted with current annual testing coverage and immediate ART to those testing positive. Sixty-six percent of these cases could have been averted with available antiretrovirals (immediate ART provided to all MSM testing positive, and preexposure antiretroviral prophylaxis taken by half of all who test negative for HIV), but only if half of all men at risk of transmission had tested annually. With increasing sequence coverage, molecular epidemiological analyses can be a key tool to direct HIV prevention strategies to the predominant sources of infection, and help send HIV epidemics among MSM into a decisive decline.

Genomic Analysis of the Emergence, Evolution, and Spread of Human Respiratory RNA Viruses

The emergence and reemergence of rapidly evolving RNA viruses-particularly those responsible for respiratory diseases, such as influenza viruses and coronaviruses-pose a significant threat to global health, including the potential of major pandemics. Importantly, recent advances in high-throughput genome sequencing enable researchers to reveal the genomic diversity of these viral pathogens at much lower cost and with much greater precision than they could before. In particular, the genome sequence data generated allow inferences to be made on the molecular basis of viral emergence, evolution, and spread in human populations in real time. In this review, we introduce recent computational methods that analyze viral genomic data, particularly in combination with metadata such as sampling time, geographic location, and virulence. We then outline the insights these analyses have provided into the fundamental patterns and processes of evolution and emergence in human respiratory RNA viruses, as well as the major challenges in such genomic analyses.

A nationwide database linking information on the hosts with sequence data of their virus strains: A useful tool for the eradication of bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) in Switzerland

Pestiviruses infect a wide variety of animals of the order Artiodactyla, with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) being an economically important pathogen of livestock globally. BVDV is maintained in the cattle population by infecting fetuses early in gestation and, thus, by generating persistently infected (PI) animals that efficiently transmit the virus throughout their lifetime. In 2008, Switzerland started a national control campaign with the aim to eradicate BVDV from all bovines in the country by searching for and eliminating every PI cattle. Different from previous eradication programs, all animals of the entire population were tested for virus within one year, followed by testing each newborn calf in the subsequent four years. Overall, 3,855,814 animals were tested from 2008 through 2011, 20,553 of which returned an initial BVDV-positive result. We were able to obtain samples from at least 36% of all initially positive tested animals. We sequenced the 5' untranslated region (UTR) of more than 7400 pestiviral strains and compiled the sequence data in a database together with an array of information on the PI animals, among others, the location of the farm in which they were born, their dams, and the locations where the animals had lived. To our knowledge, this is the largest database combining viral sequences with animal data of an endemic viral disease. Using unique identification tags, the different datasets within the database were connected to run diverse molecular epidemiological analyses. The large sets of animal and sequence data made it possible to run analyses in both directions, i.e., starting from a likely epidemiological link, or starting from related sequences. We present the results of three epidemiological investigations in detail and a compilation of 122 individual investigations that show the usefulness of such a database in a country-wide BVD eradication program.

Genetic characterization of the tick-borne orbiviruses

The International Committee for Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) recognizes four species of tick-borne orbiviruses (TBOs): Chenuda virus, Chobar Gorge virus, Wad Medani virus and Great Island virus (genus Orbivirus, family Reoviridae). Nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) sequence comparisons provide a basis for orbivirus detection and classification, however full genome sequence data were only available for the Great Island virus species. We report representative genome-sequences for the three other TBO species (virus isolates: Chenuda virus (CNUV); Chobar Gorge virus (CGV) and Wad Medani virus (WMV)). Phylogenetic comparisons show that TBOs cluster separately from insect-borne orbiviruses (IBOs). CNUV, CGV, WMV and GIV share low level aa/nt identities with other orbiviruses, in ‘conserved’ Pol, T2 and T13 proteins/genes, identifying them as four distinct virus-species. The TBO genome segment encoding cell attachment, outer capsid protein 1 (OC1), is approximately half the size of the equivalent segment from insect-borne orbiviruses, helping to explain why tick-borne orbiviruses have a ~1 kb smaller genome.

A molecular phylogenetics-based approach for identifying recent hepatitis C virus transmission events

Improved surveillance methods are needed to better understand the current hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden and to monitor the impact of prevention and treatment interventions on HCV transmission dynamics. Sanger sequencing (HCV NS5B, HVR1 and Core-E1-HVR1) and phylogenetics were applied to samples from individuals diagnosed with HCV in British Columbia, Canada in 2011. This included individuals with two or three sequential samples collected <1 year apart. Patristic distances between sequential samples were used to set cutoffs to identify recent transmission clusters. Factors associated with transmission clustering were analyzed using logistic regression. From 618 individuals, 646 sequences were obtained. Depending on the cutoff used, 63 (10%) to 92 (15%) unique individuals were identified within transmission clusters of predicted recent origin. Clustered individuals were more likely to be <40 years old (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 2.12, 95% CI 1.21-3.73), infected with genotype 1a (AOR 6.60, 95% CI 1.98-41.0), and to be seroconverters with estimated infection duration of <1 year (AOR 3.13, 95% CI 1.29-7.36) or >1 year (AOR 2.19, 95% CI 1.22-3.97).

CONCLUSION

Systematic application of molecular phylogenetics may be used to enhance traditional surveillance methods through identification of recent transmission clusters.

The Opposites Attract Study of viral load, HIV treatment and HIV transmission in serodiscordant homosexual male couples: design and methods

BACKGROUND

Studies in heterosexual HIV serodiscordant couples have provided critical evidence on the role of HIV treatments and undetectable viral load in reducing the risk of HIV transmission. There is very limited data on the risk of transmission from anal sex in homosexual male serodiscordant couples.

METHODS/DESIGN

The Opposites Attract Study is an observational prospective longitudinal cohort study of male homosexual serodiscordant partnerships running from 2012 to 2015 and conducted in clinics throughout Australia, Brazil and Thailand. Couples attend two or more clinic visits per year. The HIV-positive partner's viral load is tested and the HIV-negative partner is tested for HIV antibodies at every clinic visit. Results from any tests for sexually transmitted infections are also collected. Detailed behavioural questionnaires are completed by both partners at the time of each visit. The primary research question is whether HIV incidence is lower in those couples where the HIV-positive partner is receiving HIV treatment compared to couples where he is not receiving treatment. A voluntary semen sub-study will examine semen plasma viral load in a subsample of HIV-positive partners in Sydney, Rio de Janeiro and Bangkok. In cases of seroconversion of the initially HIV-negative partner, phylogenetic analysis will be conducted at the end of the study on virus from stored blood samples from both partners to determine if the infection came from the HIV-positive study partner. Men in new serodiscordant relationships will specifically be targeted for recruitment.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide critical data on the reduction in HIV transmission risk associated with being on HIV treatment in homosexual male serodiscordant couples in different regions of the world. Data from men in new relationships will be particularly valuable given that the highest transmission risk is in the first year of serodiscordant relationships. Furthermore, the detailed behavioural and attitudinal data from the participant questionnaires will allow exploration of many contextual factors associated with HIV risk, condom use and the negotiation of sexual practice within couples.

The EMPRES-i genetic module: a novel tool linking epidemiological outbreak information and genetic characteristics of influenza viruses

Combining epidemiological information, genetic characterization and geomapping in the analysis of influenza can contribute to a better understanding and description of influenza epidemiology and ecology, including possible virus reassortment events. Furthermore, integration of information such as agroecological farming system characteristics can provide new knowledge on risk factors of influenza emergence and spread. Integrating viral characteristics into an animal disease information system is therefore expected to provide a unique tool to trace-and-track particular virus strains; generate clade distributions and spatiotemporal clusters; screen for distribution of viruses with specific molecular markers; identify potential risk factors; and analyze or map viral characteristics related to vaccines used for control and/or prevention. For this purpose, a genetic module was developed within EMPRES-i (FAO’s global animal disease information system) linking epidemiological information from influenza events with virus characteristics and enabling combined analysis. An algorithm was developed to act as the interface between EMPRES-i disease event data and publicly available influenza virus sequences in OpenfluDB. This algorithm automatically computes potential links between outbreak event and sequences, which are subsequently manually validated by experts. Subsequently, other virus characteristics such as antiviral resistance can then be associated to outbreak data. To visualize such characteristics on a geographic map, shape files with virus characteristics to overlay on other EMPRES-i map layers (e.g. animal densities) can be generated. The genetic module allows export of associated epidemiological and sequence data for further analysis. FAO has made this tool available for scientists and policy makers. Contributions are expected from users to improve and validate the number of linked influenza events and isolate information as well as the quality of information. Possibilities to interconnect with other influenza sequence databases or to expand the genetic module to other viral diseases (e.g. foot and mouth disease) are being explored.

Database OpenfluDB URL:http://openflu.vital-it.ch

Database EMPRES-i URL:http://EMPRES-i.fao.org/

Multiple genomic recombination events in the evolution of saffold cardiovirus

Background

Saffold cardiovirus (SAFV) is a new human cardiovirus with 11 identified genotypes. Little is known about the natural history and pathogenicity of SAFVs.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We sequenced the genome of five SAFV-1 strains which were identified from fecal samples taken from children with viral diarrhea in Beijing, China between March 2006 and November 2007, and analyzed the phylogenetic and phylodynamic properties of SAFVs using the genome sequences of every known SAFV genotypes. We identified multiple recombination events in our SAFV-1 strains, specifically recombination between SAFV-2, -3, -4, -9, -10 and the prototype SAFV-1 strain in the VP4 region and recombination between SAFV-4, -6, -8, -10, -11 and prototype SAFV-1 in the VP1/2A region. Notably, recombination in the structural gene VP4 is a rare event in Cardiovirus. The ratio of nonsynonymous substitutions to synonymous substitutions indicates a purifying selection of the SAFV genome. Phylogenetic and molecular clock analysis indicates the existence of at least two subclades of SAFV-1 with different origins. Subclade 1 includes two strains isolated from Pakistan, whereas subclade 2 includes the prototype strain and strains isolated in China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The most recent common ancestor of all SAFV genotypes dates to the 1710s, and SAFV-1, -2, and -3 to the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s, respectively. No obvious relationship between variation and pathogenicity exists in the critical domains of the CD and EF loops of viral capsid proteins or the multi-functional proteins L based on animo acid sequence identity comparison between SAFV genotypes.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings suggest that intertypic recombination plays an important role in the diversity of SAFVs, highlighting the diversity of the five strains with the previously described SAFV-1 strains.

Genetic diversity of hepatitis A virus in China: VP3-VP1-2A genes and evidence of quasispecies distribution in the isolates

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) is the most common cause of infectious hepatitis throughout the world, spread largely by the fecal-oral route. To characterize the genetic diversity of the virus circulating in China where HAV in endemic, we selected the outbreak cases with identical sequences in VP1-2A junction region and compiled a panel of 42 isolates. The VP3-VP1-2A regions of the HAV capsid-coding genes were further sequenced and analyzed. The quasispecies distribution was evaluated by cloning the VP3 and VP1-2A genes in three clinical samples. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the same genotyping results could be obtained whether using the complete VP3, VP1, or partial VP1-2A genes for analysis in this study, although some differences did exist. Most isolates clustered in sub-genotype IA, and fewer in sub-genotype IB. No amino acid mutations were found at the published neutralizing epitope sites, however, several unique amino acid substitutions in the VP3 or VP1 region were identified, with two amino acid variants closely located to the immunodominant site. Quasispecies analysis showed the mutation frequencies were in the range of 7.22x10^-4 -2.33x10^-3 substitutions per nucleotide for VP3, VP1, or VP1-2A. When compared with the consensus sequences, mutated nucleotide sites represented the minority of all the analyzed sequences sites. HAV replicated as a complex distribution of closely genetically related variants referred to as quasispecies, and were under negative selection. The results indicate that diverse HAV strains and quasispecies inside the viral populations are presented in China, with unique amino acid substitutions detected close to the immunodominant site, and that the possibility of antigenic escaping mutants cannot be ruled out and needs to be further analyzed.

Future of phylogeny in HIV prevention

The success of the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial has led to revisions in HIV-1 treatment guidelines. Antiretroviral therapy may reduce the risk of HIV-1 transmissions at the population level. The design of successful treatment as prevention interventions will be predicated on a comprehensive understanding of the spatial, temporal, and biological dynamics of heterosexual men who have sex with men and intravenous drug user epidemics. Viral phylogenetics can capture the underlying structure of transmission networks based on the genetic interrelatedness of viral sequences and cluster networks that could not be otherwise identified. This article describes the phylogenetic expansion of the Montreal men who have sex with men epidemic over the last decade. High rates of coclustering of primary infections are associated with 1 infection leading to 13 onward transmissions. Phylogeny substantiates the role of primary and recent stage infection in transmission dynamics, underlying the importance of timely diagnosis and immediate antiretroviral therapy initiation to avert transmission cascades.

Disinformation squared: was the HIV-from-Fort-Detrick myth a Stasi success?

BACKGROUND

When in May 1983 the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was first securely attributed to a virus, eventually called the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), many controversies arose. Among these was one centering on HIV's origin. A startling hypothesis, called here the "HIV-from-Fort-Detrick myth," asserted that HIV had been a product, accidental or intentional, of bioweaponry research. While its earliest identifiable contributors were in the West, this myth's most dynamic propagators were in the East. The Soviet security service, the KGB, took "active measures" to create and disseminate AIDS disinformation beginning no later than July 1983 and ending no earlier than October 1987. The East German security service, a complex bureaucracy popularly known as "the Stasi," was involved, too, but how early, how deeply, how uniformly, how ably, and how successfully has not been clear. Following German reunification, claims arose attributing to the Stasi the masterful execution of ingenious elements in a disinformation campaign they helped shape and soon came to dominate. We have tested these claims.

QUESTION

Was the HIV-from-Fort-Detrick myth a Stasi success?

METHODS

Primary sources were documents and photographs assembled by the Ministry of State Security (MfS) of the German Democratic Republic (GDR or East Germany), the Ministry of Interior of the People's Republic of Bulgaria, and the United States Department of State; the estate of myth principals Jakob and Lilli Segal; the "AIDS box" in the estate of East German literary figure Stefan Heym; participant-observer recollections, interviews, and correspondence; and expert interviews. We examined secondary sources in light of primary sources.

FINDINGS

The HIV-from-Fort-Detrick myth had debuted in print in India in 1983 and had been described in publications worldwide prior to 1986, the earliest year for which we found any Stasi document mentioning the myth in any context. Many of the myth's exponents were seemingly independent conspiracy theorists. Its single most creative exponent was Jakob Segal, an idiosyncratic Soviet biologist long resident in, and long retired in, the GDR. Segal applied to the myth a thin but tenacious layer of plausibility. We could not exclude a direct KGB influence on him but found no evidence demonstrating it. The Stasi did not direct his efforts and had difficulty tracking his activities. The Stasi were prone to interpretive error and self-aggrandizement. They credited themselves with successes they did not achieve, and, in one instance, failed to appreciate that a major presumptive success had actually been a fiasco. Senior Stasi officers came to see the myth's propagation as an embarrassment threatening broader interests, especially the GDR's interest in being accepted as a scientifically sophisticated state. In 1986, 1988, and 1989, officers of HV A/X, the Stasi's disinformation and "active measures" department, discussed the myth in meetings with the Bulgarian secret service. In the last of these meetings, HV A/X officers tried to interest their Bulgarian counterparts in taking up, or taking over, the myth's propagation. Further efforts, if any, were obscured by collapse of the East German and Bulgarian governments.

CONCLUSION

No, the HIV-from-Fort-Detrick myth was not a Stasi success. Impressions to the contrary can be attributed to reliance on presumptions, boasts, and inventions. Presumptions conceding to the Stasi an extraordinary operational efficiency and an irresistible competence - qualities we could not confirm in this case - made the boasts and inventions more convincing than their evidentiary basis, had it been known, would have allowed. The result was disinformation about disinformation, a product we call "disinformation squared."

Epidemiology, molecular epidemiology and evolution of bovine respiratory syncytial virus

The bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) is an enveloped, negative sense, single-stranded RNA virus belonging to the pneumovirus genus within the family Paramyxoviridae. BRSV has been recognized as a major cause of respiratory disease in young calves since the early 1970s. The analysis of BRSV infection was originally hampered by its characteristic lability and poor growth in vitro. However, the advent of numerous immunological and molecular methods has facilitated the study of BRSV enormously. The knowledge gained from these studies has also provided the opportunity to develop safe, stable, attenuated virus vaccine candidates. Nonetheless, many aspects of the epidemiology, molecular epidemiology and evolution of the virus are still not fully understood. The natural course of infection is rather complex and further complicates diagnosis, treatment and the implementation of preventive measures aimed to control the disease. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms by which BRSV is able to establish infection is needed to prevent viral and disease spread. This review discusses important information regarding the epidemiology and molecular epidemiology of BRSV worldwide, and it highlights the importance of viral evolution in virus transmission.

Reproductive clonality of pathogens: a perspective on pathogenic viruses, bacteria, fungi, and parasitic protozoa

We propose that clonal evolution in micropathogens be defined as restrained recombination on an evolutionary scale, with genetic exchange scarce enough to not break the prevalent pattern of clonal population structure, a definition already widely used for all kinds of pathogens, although not clearly formulated by many scientists and rejected by others. The two main manifestations of clonal evolution are strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) and widespread genetic clustering ("near-clading"). We hypothesize that this pattern is not mainly due to natural selection, but originates chiefly from in-built genetic properties of pathogens, which could be ancestral and could function as alternative allelic systems to recombination genes ("clonality/sexuality machinery") to escape recombinational load. The clonal framework of species of pathogens should be ascertained before any analysis of biomedical phenotypes (phylogenetic character mapping). In our opinion, this model provides a conceptual framework for the population genetics of any micropathogen.

Parasite epidemiology in a changing world: can molecular phylogeography help us tell the wood from the trees?

SUMMARY Molecular phylogeography has revolutionised our ability to infer past biogeographic events from cross-sectional data on current parasite populations. In ecological parasitology, this approach has been used to address fundamental questions concerning host-parasite co-evolution and geographic patterns of spread, and has raised many technical issues and problems of interpretation. For applied parasitologists, the added complexity inherent in adding population genetic structure to perceived parasite distributions can sometimes seem to cloud rather than clarify approaches to control. In this paper, we use case studies firstly to illustrate the potential extent of cryptic diversity in parasite and parasitoid populations, secondly to consider how anthropogenic influences including movement of domestic animals affect the geographic distribution and host associations of parasite genotypes, and thirdly to explore the applied relevance of these processes to parasites of socio-economic importance. The contribution of phylogeographic approaches to deeper understanding of parasite biology in these cases is assessed. Thus, molecular data on the emerging parasites Angiostrongylus vasorum in dogs and wild canids, and the myiasis-causing flies Lucilia spp. in sheep and Cochliomyia hominovorax in humans, lead to clear implications for control efforts to limit global spread. Broader applications of molecular phylogeography to understanding parasite distributions in an era of rapid global change are also discussed.

Analysis of genetic linkage of HIV from couples enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial

BACKGROUND

The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 trial demonstrated that early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission from HIV-infected adults (index participants) to their HIV-uninfected sexual partners. We analyzed HIV from 38 index-partner pairs and 80 unrelated index participants (controls) to assess the linkage of seroconversion events.

METHODS

Linkage was assessed using phylogenetic analysis of HIV pol sequences and Bayesian analysis of genetic distances between pol sequences from index-partner pairs and controls. Selected samples were also analyzed using next-generation sequencing (env region).

RESULTS

In 29 of the 38 (76.3%) cases analyzed, the index was the likely source of the partner's HIV infection (linked). In 7 cases (18.4%), the partner was most likely infected from a source other than the index participant (unlinked). In 2 cases (5.3%), linkage status could not be definitively established.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly one-fifth of the seroconversion events in HPTN 052 were unlinked. The association of early ART and reduced HIV transmission was stronger when the analysis included only linked events. This underscores the importance of assessing the genetic linkage of HIV seroconversion events in HIV prevention studies involving serodiscordant couples.

Influenza genome diversity and evolution

The influenza viruses contain highly variable genomes and are able to infect a wide range of host species. Large-scale sequencing projects have collected abundant influenza sequence data for assessing influenza genome diversity and evolution. This work reviews current influenza sequence databases characteristics and statistics, as well as recent studies utilizing these databases to unravel influenza virus diversity and evolution. Also discussed are the newest deep sequencing methods and their applications to influenza virus research.