Pandemic influenza and hospital resources

A systematic literature review on public health and healthcare resources for pandemic preparedness planning

BACKGROUND

Generating insights into resource demands during outbreaks is an important aspect of pandemic preparedness. The EU PANDEM-2 project used resource modelling to explore the demand profile for key resources during pandemic scenarios. This review aimed to identify public health and healthcare resources needed to respond to pandemic threats and the ranges of parameter values on the use of these resources for pandemic influenza (including the novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic) and the COVID-19 pandemic, to support modelling activities.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review and searched Embase and Medline databases (1995 - June 2023) for articles that included a model, scenario, or simulation of pandemic resources and/or describe resource parameters, for example personal protective equipment (PPE) usage, length of stay (LoS) in intensive care unit (ICU), or vaccine efficacy. Papers with data on resource parameters from all countries were included.

RESULTS

We identified 2754 articles of which 147 were included in the final review. Forty-six different resource parameters with values related to non-ICU beds (n = 43 articles), ICU beds (n = 57), mechanical ventilation (n = 39), healthcare workers (n = 12), pharmaceuticals (n = 21), PPE (n = 8), vaccines (n = 26), and testing and tracing (n = 19). Differences between resource types related to pandemic influenza and COVID-19 were observed, for example on mechanical ventilation (mostly for COVID-19) and testing & tracing (all for COVID-19).

CONCLUSION

This review provides an overview of public health and healthcare resources with associated parameters in the context of pandemic influenza and the COVID-19 pandemic. Providing insight into the ranges of plausible parameter values on the use of public health and healthcare resources improves the accuracy of results of modelling different scenarios, and thus decision-making by policy makers and hospital planners. This review also highlights a scarcity of published data on important public health resources.

Factors Affecting Willingness to Report to Work During COVID-19 Pandemic among Health Care Workers in a Tertiary Government Hospital

Background

Healthcare workers' (HCWs) willingness to report to work despite personal risk is a requisite for an effective pandemic response. At present, there are no local studies that have examined the factors affecting willingness to report to work during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective

To determine the factors associated with willingness to report to work during COVID-19 pandemic among healthcare workers in a tertiary government hospital.

Methods

This was a cross sectional study among the nursing staff (nursing attendants, nurses), doctors (residents, fellows), medical technologists, radiologic technologists, and respiratory technicians in a tertiary government hospital, who were employed from January 2021 to January 2022. Data was collected through an online questionnaire and was analyzed using SPSS.

Results

A total of 311 participants included in the study. The median age of the respondents was 34 (29-46) years old. More than a third of the workers were nurses (37%) followed by residents and fellows (34%), nursing attendants (19%), radiologic technologists, medical technologists, and respiratory technicians (10%). Over 4 out of 5 were assigned in a non-COVID area while 11% were assigned in the COVID area. The odds of willingness to report to work is 60% lower among males compared to females. On the other hand, the odds of willingness to report to work was 78% lower among nurses and 84% lower among residents and fellows compared to medical technologist, radiologic technologists, and respiratory therapists. The median rating of the staff on willingness to report to work was 80% (60-90), and 73% of respondents were willing to report to work during the entire COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

Factors that were associated with willingness to report to work were female gender and occupation (radiologic technologists, medical technologists, respiratory technicians).

Predicting Seasonal Influenza Hospitalizations Using an Ensemble Super Learner: A Simulation Study

Accurate forecasts can inform response to outbreaks. Most efforts in influenza forecasting have focused on predicting influenza-like activity, with fewer on influenza-related hospitalizations. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate a super learner's predictions of 3 seasonal measures of influenza hospitalizations in the United States: peak hospitalization rate, peak hospitalization week, and cumulative hospitalization rate. We trained an ensemble machine learning algorithm on 15,000 simulated hospitalization curves and generated weekly predictions. We compared the performance of the ensemble (weighted combination of predictions from multiple prediction algorithms), the best-performing individual prediction algorithm, and a naive prediction (median of a simulated outcome distribution). Ensemble predictions performed similarly to the naive predictions early in the season but consistently improved as the season progressed for all prediction targets. The best-performing prediction algorithm in each week typically had similar predictive accuracy compared with the ensemble, but the specific prediction algorithm selected varied by week. An ensemble super learner improved predictions of influenza-related hospitalizations, relative to a naive prediction. Future work should examine the super learner's performance using additional empirical data on influenza-related predictors (e.g., influenza-like illness). The algorithm should also be tailored to produce prospective probabilistic forecasts of selected prediction targets.

Ethnolinguistic diversity and the spread of communicable diseases: a cross-country study on the COVID-19 pandemic

Motivated by the varying effectiveness of government intervention policies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, and the potential positive relationship between ethnolinguistic diversity and social distance, this paper aims to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between ethnolinguistic diversity and the spread of COVID-19. In particular, using global data from 113 developed and developing countries during the early stages of the pandemic (from 31 December 2019 to 8 July 2020), we have found a significant negative effect of ethnolinguistic diversity on the spread of the virus. The result is robust to alternative measures of ethnolinguistic diversity and estimator that addresses endogeneity. Moreover, we also show that the impact of ethnolinguistic diversity on the spread of COVID-19 differs in economies characterized by different levels of democracy, policy stringency on addressing COVID-19 and health expenditure.

A systematic review of de-escalation strategies for redeployed staff and repurposed facilities in COVID-19 intensive care units (ICUs) during the pandemic

BACKGROUND

Intensive care units (ICUs) experienced a surge in patient cases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand was managed by redeploying healthcare workers (HCWs) and restructuring facilities. The rate of ICU admissions has subsided in many regions, with the redeployed workforce and facilities returning to usual functions. Previous literature has focused on the escalation of ICUs, limited research exists on de-escalation. This study aimed to identify the supportive and operational strategies used for the flexible de-escalation of ICUs in the context of COVID-19.

METHODS

The systematic review was developed by searching eight databases in April and November 2021. Papers discussing the return of redeployed staff and facilities and the training, wellbeing, and operational strategies were included. Excluded papers were non-English and unrelated to ICU de-escalation. Quality was assessed using the mixed methods appraisal tool (MMAT) and authority, accuracy, coverage, objectivity, date, and significance (AACODS) checklist, findings were developed using narrative synthesis and thematic analysis.

FINDINGS

Fifteen papers were included from six countries covering wellbeing and training themes encompassing; time off, psychological follow-up, gratitude, identification of training needs, missed training catch-up, and continuation of ICU and disaster management training. Operational themes included management of rotas, retainment of staff, division of ICU facilities, leadership changes, traffic light systems, and preparation for re-expansion.

INTERPRETATION

The review provided an overview of the landscape of de-escalation strategies that have taken place in six countries. Limited empirical evidence was available that evaluated the effectiveness of such strategies. Empirical and evaluative research from a larger array of countries is needed to be able to make global recommendations on ICU de-escalation practices.

Open Data Resources on COVID-19 in Six European Countries: Issues and Opportunities

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, national and international authorities started to develop and update datasets to provide data to researchers, journalists and health care providers as well as public opinion. These data became one of the most important sources of information, which are updated daily and analysed by scientists in order to investigate and predict the spread of this epidemic. Despite this positive reaction from both national and international authorities in providing aggregated information on the diffusion of COVID-19, different challenges have been underlined in previously published studies. Different papers have discussed strengths and weaknesses of these types of datasets by focusing on different quality perspectives, which include the statistical methods adopted to analyse them; the lack of standards and models in the adoption of data for their management and distribution; and the analysis of different data quality characteristics. These studies have analysed datasets at the general level or by focusing the attention on specific indicators such as the number of cases or deaths. This paper further investigates issues and opportunities in the diffusion of these datasets under two main perspectives. At the general level, it analyses how data are organized and distributed to scientific and non-scientific communities. Moreover, it further explores the indicators adopted to describe the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic while also highlighting the level of detail used to describe them in terms of gender, age ranges and territorial units. The paper focuses on six European countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK.

Balancing scarce hospital resources during the COVID-19 pandemic using discrete-event simulation

COVID-19 has disrupted healthcare operations and resulted in large-scale cancellations of elective surgery. Hospitals throughout the world made life-altering resource allocation decisions and prioritised the care of COVID-19 patients. Without effective models to evaluate resource allocation strategies encompassing COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 care, hospitals face the risk of making sub-optimal local resource allocation decisions. A discrete-event-simulation model is proposed in this paper to describe COVID-19, elective surgery, and emergency surgery patient flows. COVID-19-specific patient flows and a surgical patient flow network were constructed based on data of 475 COVID-19 patients and 28,831 non-COVID-19 patients in Addenbrooke's hospital in the UK. The model enabled the evaluation of three resource allocation strategies, for two COVID-19 wave scenarios: proactive cancellation of elective surgery, reactive cancellation of elective surgery, and ring-fencing operating theatre capacity. The results suggest that a ring-fencing strategy outperforms the other strategies, regardless of the COVID-19 scenario, in terms of total direct deaths and the number of surgeries performed. However, this does come at the cost of 50% more critical care rejections. In terms of aggregate hospital performance, a reactive cancellation strategy prioritising COVID-19 is no longer favourable if more than 7.3% of elective surgeries can be considered life-saving. Additionally, the model demonstrates the impact of timely hospital preparation and staff availability, on the ability to treat patients during a pandemic. The model can aid hospitals worldwide during pandemics and disasters, to evaluate their resource allocation strategies and identify the effect of redefining the prioritisation of patients.

Health workforce surge capacity during the COVID‐19 pandemic and other global respiratory disease outbreaks: A systematic review of health system requirements and responses

Health system decision‐makers need comprehensive evidence to mitigate surges in the demand for human resources for health (HRH) during infectious disease outbreaks. This study aimed to assess the state of the evidence on policy and planning responses to HRH surge capacity during the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic and other viral respiratory disease outbreaks of global significance in the 21st century. We systematically searched eight bibliographic databases to extract primary research articles published between January 2000 and June 2020 capturing temporal changes in health workforce requirements and responses surrounding respiratory virus pandemics. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐analyses standard, 16 studies met our inclusion criteria. Five focused on COVID‐19, three on H1N1, and eight modelled a hypothetical pandemic. Investigations of different training, mobilization, and redeployment options to address pandemic‐time health system capacity were reviewed; however, few scenarios drew on observational HRH data, and heterogeneity of study approaches and outcomes generally precluded comparability across contexts. Notable evidence gaps included occupational and psychosocial factors affecting healthcare workers' absenteeism and risk of burnout, gendered considerations of HRH capacity, evaluations in low‐ and lower‐middle income countries, and policy‐actionable assessments to inform post‐pandemic recovery and sustainability of services for noncommunicable disease management.

Healthcare Professionals' Willingness and Preparedness to Work During COVID-19 in Selected Hospitals of Southwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Many healthcare professionals are dying of COVID-19 while trying to save others. The loss in the healthcare workforce due to sickness and absence will double the risk of a crisis. Identifying barriers of willingness to work during epidemics outbreak and preparedness of healthcare professionals is important to minimize the shortage of human power.

METHODS

Facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among healthcare professionals working in the selected hospitals of Southwest Ethiopia from June 1-30/2020. The data entry was done by Epi-Data Manager version 4.4.1.0 and exported to SPSS version 23 for analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis with a backward stepwise approach was done to identify independent predictors of poor preparedness and willingness of the healthcare professionals to work during COVID-19 and Variables with P-value <0.05 were considered as a statistically significant determinant.

RESULTS

Of 407 healthcare professionals who participated in the study, 246 (60.4%) were male. The mean age of the respondents was 28.47±5.60 years. Forty-seven (11.55%) Physicians, 59 (14.50%) pharmacy personnel, 52 (12.78%) Laboratory personnel, 31 (7.62%) Midwives, and 195 (47.91%) Nurses were included in the study. The healthcare professionals who were not prepared for the provision of services during COVID-19 and not willing to work during COVID-19 were 165 (40.5%) and 86 (21.1%) respectively. Having 6 to10 years' experience (AOR=4.046, CI: 1.05-15.58), and divorced marital status (AOR=7.855, CI: 1.781-34.65) were independent predictors of not willing to work during COVID-19. Similarly, lack of personal protective equipment (AOR=28.089, CI: 13.9-56.67) and shortage of infrastructure at the work place (AOR=28.1, CI: 13.9-56.67) were independent predictors of poor preparedness.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Healthcare professionals' willingness and preparedness to work during COVID-19 was low. Use of Telemedicine, provision of personal protective equipment, increasing hospital's safety with adequate infection control policy, and assigning staff who have experience of more than ten years in the risky wards of the hospitals may decrease staffs absentee and increase in the provision of continuous service.

Repositioning chloroquine as antiviral prophylaxis against COVID-19: potential and challenges

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is advancing globally, and pharmaceutical prophylaxis is one solution. Here, we propose repositioning chloroquine (CQ) as prophylaxis against COVID-19. CQ blocks viral attachment and entry to host cells and demonstrates efficacy against a variety of viruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19. Furthermore, CQ is safe, inexpensive, and available. Here, we review the antiviral mechanisms of CQ, its in vitro activity against coronaviruses, its pharmacokinetics (PK) and adverse effects, and why it could be more efficacious as a prophylactic rather than as a therapeutic, given the infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We propose two prophylactic regimens based on efficacy and risk considerations. Although it is largely preclinical data that suggest the potential of CQ, properly planned prophylactic trials and further research are urgently needed.

Epidemiological Data Challenges: Planning for a More Robust Future Through Data Standards

Accessible epidemiological data are of great value for emergency preparedness and response, understanding disease progression through a population, and building statistical and mechanistic disease models that enable forecasting. The status quo, however, renders acquiring and using such data difficult in practice. In many cases, a primary way of obtaining epidemiological data is through the internet, but the methods by which the data are presented to the public often differ drastically among institutions. As a result, there is a strong need for better data sharing practices. This paper identifies, in detail and with examples, the three key challenges one encounters when attempting to acquire and use epidemiological data: (1) interfaces, (2) data formatting, and (3) reporting. These challenges are used to provide suggestions and guidance for improvement as these systems evolve in the future. If these suggested data and interface recommendations were adhered to, epidemiological and public health analysis, modeling, and informatics work would be significantly streamlined, which can in turn yield better public health decision-making capabilities.

Assessing the State of Knowledge Regarding the Effectiveness of Interventions to Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis

BACKGROUND

Influenza pandemics occur when a novel influenza strain, to which humans are immunologically naïve, emerges to cause infection and illness on a global scale. Differences in the viral properties of pandemic strains, relative to seasonal ones, can alter the effectiveness of interventions typically implemented to control seasonal influenza burden. As a result, annual control activities may not be sufficient to contain an influenza pandemic.

PURPOSE

This study seeks to inform pandemic policy and planning initiatives by reviewing the effectiveness of previous interventions to reduce pandemic influenza transmission and infection. Results will inform the planning and design of more focused in-depth systematic reviews for specific types of interventions, thus providing the most comprehensive and current understanding of the potential for alternative interventions to mitigate the burden of pandemic influenza.

METHODS

A systematic review and narrative synthesis of existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses examining intervention effectiveness in containing pandemic influenza transmission was conducted using information collected from five databases (PubMed, Medline, Cochrane, Embase, and Cinahl/EBSCO). Two independent reviewers conducted study screening and quality assessment, extracting data related to intervention impact and effectiveness.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Most included reviews were of moderate to high quality. Although the degree of statistical heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis, the present systematic review examines the wide variety of interventions that can impact influenza transmission in different ways. While it appears that pandemic influenza vaccination provides significant protection against infection, there was insufficient evidence to conclude that antiviral prophylaxis, seasonal influenza cross-protection, or a range of non-pharmaceutical strategies would provide appreciable protection when implemented in isolation. It is likely that an optimal intervention strategy will employ a combination of interventions in a layered approach, though more research is needed to substantiate this proposition.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 42016039803.

Healthcare workers' willingness to work during an influenza pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis

To estimate the proportion of healthcare workers (HCWs) willing to work during an influenza pandemic and identify associated risk factors, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis compliant with PRISMA guidance. Databases and grey literature were searched to April 2013, and records were screened against protocol eligibility criteria. Data extraction and risk of bias assessments were undertaken using a piloted form. Random-effects meta-analyses estimated (i) pooled proportion of HCWs willing to work and (ii) pooled odds ratios of risk factors associated with willingness to work. Heterogeneity was quantified using the I(2) statistic, and publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. Data were synthesized narratively where meta-analyses were not possible. Forty-three studies met our inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of the proportion of HCWs willing to work was abandoned due to excessive heterogeneity (I(2) = 99.2%). Narrative synthesis showed study estimates ranged from 23.1% to 95.8% willingness to work, depending on context. Meta-analyses of specific factors showed that male HCWs, physicians and nurses, full-time employment, perceived personal safety, awareness of pandemic risk and clinical knowledge of influenza pandemics, role-specific knowledge, pandemic response training, and confidence in personal skills were statistically significantly associated with increased willingness. Childcare obligations were significantly associated with decreased willingness. HCWs' willingness to work during an influenza pandemic was moderately high, albeit highly variable. Numerous risk factors showed a statistically significant association with willingness to work despite significant heterogeneity between studies. None of the included studies were based on appropriate theoretical constructs of population behaviour.

Surge capacity principles: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement

BACKGROUND

This article provides consensus suggestions for expanding critical care surge capacity and extension of critical care service capabilities in disasters or pandemics. It focuses on the principles and frameworks for expansion of intensive care services in hospitals in the developed world. A companion article addresses surge logistics, those elements that provide the capability to deliver mass critical care in disaster events. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in large-scale disasters or pandemics with injured or critically ill multiple patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials.

METHODS

The Surge Capacity topic panel developed 23 key questions focused on the following domains: systems issues; equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals; staffing; and informatics. Literature searches were conducted to identify evidence on which to base key suggestions. Most reports were small scale, were observational, or used flawed modeling; hence, the level of evidence on which to base recommendations was poor and did not permit the development of evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. Suggestions from the previous task force were also included for validation by the expert panel.

RESULTS

This article presents 10 suggestions pertaining to the principles that should guide surge capacity and capability planning for mass critical care, including the role of critical care in disaster planning; the surge continuum; targets of surge response; situational awareness and information sharing; mitigating the impact on critical care; planning for the care of special populations; and service deescalation/cessation (also considered as engineered failure).

CONCLUSIONS

Future reports on critical care surge should emphasize population-based outcomes as well as logistical details. Planning should be based on the projected number of critically ill or injured patients resulting from specific scenarios. This should include a consideration of ICU patient care requirements over time and must factor in resource constraints that may limit the ability to provide care. Standard ICU management forms and patient data forms to assess ICU surge capacity impacts should be created and used in disaster events.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Parameters of Korea's Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to evaluate Korea's Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan.

METHODS

We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the expected number of outpatients and hospital bed occupancy, with 1,000,000 parameter combinations, in a situation of pandemic influenza, using the mathematical simulation program InfluSim.

RESULTS

Given the available resources in Korea, antiviral treatment and social distancing must be combined to reduce the number of outpatients and hospitalizations sufficiently; any single intervention is not enough. The antiviral stockpile of 4-6% is sufficient for the expected eligible number of cases to be treated. However, the eligible number assumed (30% for severe cases and 26% for extremely severe cases) is very low compared to the corresponding number in European countries, where up to 90% of the population are assumed to be eligible for antiviral treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can mitigate a pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter combinations.

Participation of ICUs in critical care pandemic research: a province wide, cross-sectional survey

OBJECTIVE

Little information exists to identify barriers to participation in pandemic research involving critically ill patients. We sought to characterize clinical research activity during the recent influenza A pandemic and to understand the experiences, beliefs, and practices of key stakeholders involved in pandemic research implementation.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional, provincial postal questionnaire.

SETTING

Level III ICUs.

PARTICIPANTS

ICU administrators and research coordinators.

MEASUREMENTS

We used rigorous survey methodology to identify potential respondents and to develop, test, and administer two-related questionnaires.

MAIN RESULTS

We analyzed responses from 39 research coordinators and 139 administrators (response rates: 70.9% and 73.2%, respectively). Compared with non-influenza A studies, influenza A studies were less likely to be randomized trials and most often investigator-initiated and peer-review funded. Whereas both respondent groups felt that pandemic research would be helpful in providing care during future pandemics, research coordinators placed significantly greater importance on their ICU's participation in pandemic research. Both respondent groups expressed a need for rapid approval processes, designated funding for research personnel, adequate funding for start-up and patient screening, preapproved template protocols and consent forms, and clearer guidance regarding co-enrollment. Research coordinators acknowledged a need for alternative consent models to increase their capacity to participate in future pandemic research. More administrators expressed willingness to participate in the next pandemic if the required research resources were made available to them.

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas research personnel and administrators support participation in pandemic ICU research, several modifiable barriers to participation exist. Pandemic research preparedness planning with regulatory bodies and dedicated funding to support research infrastructure, especially in community settings, are required to optimize future pandemic research participation.

Business continuity and pandemic preparedness: US health care versus non-health care agencies

BACKGROUND

Only limited data are available on US business continuity activities related to biologic events.

METHODS

A questionnaire was administered to human resource professionals during May-July 2011 to assess business continuity related to biologic events, incentives businesses are providing to maximize worker surge capacity, and seasonal influenza vaccination policy. Linear regressions were used to describe factors associated with higher business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores. The χ(2) and Fisher exact tests compared health care versus non-health care businesses on preparedness indicators.

RESULTS

Possible business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0.5 to 27 and 0 to 15, with average resulting scores among participants at 13.2 and 7.3, respectively. Determinants of business continuity and pandemic preparedness were (1) business size (larger businesses were more prepared), (2) type of business (health care more prepared), (3) having human resource professional as company disaster planning committee member, and (4) risk perception of a pandemic in the next year. Most businesses (63.3%, n = 298) encourage staff influenza vaccination; 2.1% (n = 10) mandate it. Only 10% of businesses (11.0%, n = 52) provide employee incentives, and fewer than half (41.0%, n = 193) stockpile personal protective equipment.

CONCLUSION

Despite the recent H1N1 pandemic, many US businesses lack adequate pandemic plans. It is critical that businesses of all sizes and types become better prepared for a biologic event.

Health systems' "surge capacity": state of the art and priorities for future research

CONTEXT

Over the past decade, a number of high-impact natural hazard events, together with the increased recognition of pandemic risks, have intensified interest in health systems' ability to prepare for, and cope with, "surges" (sudden large-scale escalations) in treatment needs. In this article, we identify key concepts and components associated with this emerging research theme. We consider the requirements for a standardized conceptual framework for future research capable of informing policy to reduce the morbidity and mortality impacts of such incidents. Here our objective is to appraise the consistency and utility of existing conceptualizations of health systems' surge capacity and their components, with a view to standardizing concepts and measurements to enable future research to generate a cumulative knowledge base for policy and practice.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature on concepts of health systems' surge capacity, with a narrative summary of key concepts relevant to public health.

FINDINGS

The academic literature on surge capacity demonstrates considerable variation in its conceptualization, terms, definitions, and applications. This, together with an absence of detailed and comparable data, has hampered efforts to develop standardized conceptual models, measurements, and metrics. Some degree of consensus is evident for the components of surge capacity, but more work is needed to integrate them. The overwhelming concentration in the United States complicates the generalizability of existing approaches and findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The concept of surge capacity is a useful addition to the study of health systems' disaster and/or pandemic planning, mitigation, and response, and it has far-reaching policy implications. Even though research in this area has grown quickly, it has yet to fulfill its potential to generate knowledge to inform policy. Work is needed to generate robust conceptual and analytical frameworks, along with innovations in data collection and methodological approaches that enhance health systems' readiness for, and response to, unpredictable high-consequence surges in demand.

Health system resource gaps and associated mortality from pandemic influenza across six Asian territories

Background

Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia.

Methods and Findings

We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a “mild-to-moderate” pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as “avoidable” mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored.

Conclusions

The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths.

Cost-effectiveness of sick leave policies for health care workers with influenza-like illness, Brazil, 2009

TOC Summary: Seven-day leave was more costly and no more effective than 2 days plus reevaluation.

We describe the effect of influenza-like illness (ILI) during the outbreak of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on health care worker (HCW) absenteeism and compare the effectiveness and cost of 2 sick leave policies for HCWs with suspected influenza. We assessed initial 2-day sick leaves plus reassessment until the HCW was asymptomatic (2-day + reassessment policy), and initial 7-day sick leaves (7-day policy). Sick leaves peaked in August 2009: 3% of the workforce received leave for ILI. Costs during May–October reached R$798,051.87 (≈US $443,362). The 7-day policy led to a higher monthly rate of sick leave days per 100 HCWs than did the 2-day + reassessment policy (8.72 vs. 3.47 days/100 HCWs; p<0.0001) and resulted in higher costs (US $609 vs. US $1,128 per HCW on leave). ILI affected HCW absenteeism. The 7-day policy was more costly and not more effective in preventing transmission to patients than the 2-day + reassessment policy.

Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia

At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model's predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model's usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.

A preliminary study on the medical expenditure of Chinese medicine and integrative medicine treatment for influenza A (H1N1) in the fever clinics

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the effectiveness of Chinese medicine and integrated Chinese and Western medicine for influenza A (H1N1) in the fever clinics and its relevant expenditure.

METHODS

A prospective survey on the clinical epidemic observation and follow-up was conducted from July 2009 to October 2009 with a self-developed questionnaire whose contents including the clinical data of the confirmed 149 H1N1 cases and their relevant therapeutic expenditure. The patients were assigned to the Chinese medicine group (22 cases treated by Chinese medicine alone) and integrative medicine group (124 cases treated by both Chinese medicine and Western medicine). The data were processed with descriptive analysis, t test and χ (2), and sum-rank test.

RESULTS

The proportion of clinical recovery of Chinese medicine group (81.8%) was higher than that of integrative medicine group (54.8%) with statistical significance (P=0.02). The average fever durations in both groups were 3.5 to 4 days, showing no significant difference (P=0.86). In the comparisons of average cost of Chinese herbs, drugs, therapies, and total cost, those of the Chinese medicine group were lower than those in the integrative group (P=0.01, P=0.00, P=0.00, P=0.00).

CONCLUSIONS

The H1N1 patients in the fever clinic who received Chinese medicine treatment had a higher clinical recovery proportion than those who received integrated Chinese and Western medicine treatment with lower medical cost. However, due to small sample size of the Chinese medicine group in the study, the conclusion needs further confirmation by studies with large sample size.

Health service resource needs for pandemic influenza in developing countries: a linked transmission dynamics, interventions and resource demand model

We used a mathematical model to describe a regional outbreak and extrapolate the underlying health-service resource needs. This model was designed to (i) estimate resource gaps and quantities of resources needed, (ii) show the effect of resource gaps, and (iii) highlight which particular resources should be improved. We ran the model, parameterized with data from the 2009 H1N1v pandemic, for two provinces in Thailand. The predicted number of preventable deaths due to resource shortcomings and the actual resource needs are presented for two provinces and for Thailand as a whole. The model highlights the potentially huge impact of health-system resource availability and of resource gaps on health outcomes during a pandemic and provides a means to indicate where efforts should be concentrated to effectively improve pandemic response programmes.

Preparing your intensive care unit for the second wave of H1N1 and future surges

Faced with increased demands for critical care services as a result of the novel H1N1 pandemic, hospitals must prepare a surge response in an attempt to manage these needs. In preparing for a surge response, factors to consider are staff, stuff (supplies and equipment), space, and systems necessary to respond to the event. This article uses this general framework to discuss surge issues in the context of H1N1 challenges that we are facing currently and to provide specific advice for hospitals. Particular attention is given to how hospitals can estimate the potential impact of H1N1 and pharmaceutical stockpiling.

Pandemic influenza and pediatric intensive care

OBJECTIVE

To assess the adequacy of preparedness planning for an influenza pandemic by modeling the pediatric surge capacity of healthcare facility and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) requirements over time. Governments and Public Health authorities have planned preparedness activities and training for a flu pandemic. PICU facilities will be the limiting factor in healthcare provision for children but detailed analyses for needs and demands in PICU care have not been published.

DESIGN

Based on the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and World Health Organization estimates and published models of the expected evolution of pandemic flu, we modeled the pediatric surge capacity of healthcare facility and PICU requirements over time. Various scenarios with different assumptions were explored. We compared these demands with estimates of maximal PICU capacity factoring in healthcare worker absenteeism as well as reported and more realistic estimates derived from semistructured telephone interviews with key stakeholders in ICUs in the study area.

SETTING

All hospitals and intensive care facilities in the Northern Region in The Netherlands with near 1.7 million inhabitants, of whom approximately 25% is <18 yrs.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Using well-established modeling techniques, evidence-based medicine, and incorporating estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and World Health Organization, we show that PICU capacity may suffice during an influenza pandemic. Even during the peak of the pandemic, most children requiring PICU admission may be served, even those who have nonflu-related conditions, provided that robust indications and decision rules are maintained, both for admission, as well as continuation (or discontinuation) of life support.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that a model, with assumptions that can be adapted with new information obtained during early stages of the pandemic that is evolving, be an integral part of a preparedness plan for a pandemic influenza with new human transmissible agent like influenza A virus.

Mitigation of pandemic influenza: review of cost-effectiveness studies

We conducted a review of economic evaluations of pandemic influenza control measures. In the studies found, we detected various interventions being investigated: antiviral stockpiling and treatment, prophylaxis, vaccination, school closure and restricting international travel. Cost-effectiveness varied but often showed potentials for the favorable economic profiles of these measures. Both static and dynamic models were used. We conclude that the choice of an appropriate model - in particular, a dynamic model - is crucial to arrive at valid cost-effectiveness ratios. Yet, of the economic evaluations considered here, only a few were based on dynamic modeling. We recommend that further research is directed toward linking dynamic epidemiological models for pandemic spread with economic outcomes by considering the full impacts on national economies, including direct, indirect, medical and nonmedical costs.

Nurses' contacts and potential for infectious disease transmission

These data can help predict staff availability and provide information for pandemic preparedness planning.

Nurses’ contacts with potentially infectious persons probably place them at higher risk than the general population for infectious diseases. During an influenza pandemic, illness among nurses might result in staff shortage. We aimed to show the value of individual data from the healthcare sector for mathematical modeling of infectious disease transmission. Using a paper diary approach, we compared nurses’ daily contacts (2-way conversation with >2 words or skin-to-skin contact) with those of matched controls from a representative population survey. Nurses (n = 129) reported a median of 40 contacts (85% work related), and controls (n = 129) reported 12 contacts (33% work related). For nurses, 51% of work-related contacts were with patients (74% involving skin-to-skin contact, and 63% lasted <15 minutes); 40% were with staff members (29% and 36%, respectively). Our data, used with simulation models, can help predict staff availability and provide information for pandemic preparedness planning.

Mitigation approaches to combat the flu pandemic

Management of flu pandemic is a perpetual challenge for the medical fraternity since time immemorial. Animal to human transmission has been observed thrice in the last century within an average range of 11-39 years of antigenic recycling. The recent outbreak of influenza A (H1N1, also termed as swine flu), first reported in Mexico on April 26, 2009, occurred in the forty first year since last reported flu pandemic (July 1968). Within less than 50 days, it has assumed pandemic proportions (phase VI) affecting over 76 countries with 163 deaths/35,928 cases (as on 15(th) June 2009). It indicated the re-emergence of genetically reassorted virus having strains endemic to humans, swine and avian (H5N1). The World Health Organisation (WHO) member states have already pulled up their socks and geared up to combat such criticalities. Earlier outbreaks of avian flu (H5N1) in different countries led WHO to develop pandemic preparedness strategies with national/regional plans on pandemic preparedness. Numerous factors related to climatic conditions, socio-economic strata, governance and sharing of information/logistics at all levels have been considered critical indicators in monitoring the dynamics of escalation towards a pandemic situation.The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies), nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with its effective implementation at national, state and local levels.

Capacity of Thailand to contain an emerging influenza pandemic

Gaps exist in infrastructure, personnel and materials, and surveillance capacity to meet needs of various pandemic scenarios.

Southeast Asia will likely be the epicenter of the next influenza pandemic. To determine whether health system resources in Thailand are sufficient to contain an emerging pandemic, we mapped health system resources in 76 provinces. We used 3 prepandemic scenarios of clustered cases and determined resource needs, availability, and gaps. We extended this analysis to a scenario of a modest pandemic and assumed that the same standards of clinical care would be required. We found that gaps exist in many resource categories, even under scenarios in which few cases occur. Such gaps are likely to be profound if a severe pandemic occurs. These gaps exist in infrastructure, personnel and materials, and surveillance capacity. Policy makers must determine whether such resource gaps can realistically be closed, ideally before a pandemic occurs. Alternatively, explicit assumptions must be made regarding allocation of scarce resources, standards of care, and priority setting during a pandemic.

Pandemic influenza and excess intensive-care workload

In The Netherlands a major part of preparedness planning for an epidemic or pandemic consists of maintaining essential public services, e.g., by the police, fire departments, army personnel, and healthcare workers. We provide estimates for peak demand for healthcare workers, factoring in healthcare worker absenteeism and using estimates from published epidemiologic models on the expected evolution of pandemic influenza in relation to the impact on peak surge capacity of healthcare facilities and intensive care units (ICUs). Using various published scenarios, we estimate their effect in increasing the availability of healthcare workers for duty during a pandemic. We show that even during the peak of the pandemic, all patients requiring hospital and ICU admission can be served, including those who have non-influenza-related conditions. For this rigorous task differentiation, clear hierarchical management, unambiguous communication, and discipline are essential and we recommend informing and training non-ICU healthcare workers for duties in the ICU.

Preparing for pandemic influenza

Influenza is a highly contagious, acute febrile respiratory illness that results in global morbidity and mortality annually. Avian influenza (H5N1) has the potential to cause a pandemic. Avian influenza's epidemiology and clinical description, including common signs/symptoms, transmission, vaccination, and treatment, are presented. Recommended isolation practices for labor and delivery, and proper procedures for identifying and managing infected patients are provided. Potential maternal and newborn outcomes related to influenza and avian influenza are discussed. Pandemic planning issues are outlined, including hospital surge capacity, medical equipment and staffing availability, and the need for altered standards of care. Communities need to designate sites (whether in hospital or in alternative care centers) for labor and delivery services as part of their disaster plan. Pregnant women and newborns are vulnerable groups during routine times and are expected to be disproportionately affected during a pandemic in terms of morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is essential that hospitals and communities take steps to protect these vulnerable groups as part of the disaster planning process. It is not known whether or when a pandemic will occur, but perinatal and neonatal nurses should become familiar with avian influenza's clinical description and proper infection control procedures to halt potential disease spread.

Hospital Resources for Pandemic Influenza

Hospital Resources for Pandemic Influenza