Fine-scale identification of the most likely source of a human plague infection

Predicting global potential distribution of Peromyscopsylla hesperomys and Orchopeas sexdentatus and risk assessment for invading China under climate change

Background

Peromyscopsylla hesperomys and Orchopeas sexdentatus are regarded to be representative plague vectors in the United States. The incidence of plague is rising globally, possibly due to climate change and environmental damage. Environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of plague vectors.

Methods

Maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) were utilized to predict the distributions of these two fleas and their trends into the future. The main environmental factors influencing the distribution of these two fleas were analyzed. A risk assessment system was constructed to calculate the invasion risk values of the species.

Results

Temperature has a significant effect on the distribution of the potentially suitable areas for P. hesperomys and O. sexdentatus. They have the potential to survive in suitable areas of China in the future. The risk assessment system indicated that the risk level for the invasion of these two species into China was moderate.

Conclusion

In order to achieve early detection, early interception, and early management, China should perfect its monitoring infrastructure and develop scientific prevention and control strategies to prevent the invasion of foreign flea vectors.

No evidence for enzootic plague within black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) populations

Yersinia pestis, causative agent of plague, occurs throughout the western United States in rodent populations and periodically causes epizootics in susceptible species, including black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). How Y. pestis persists long-term in the environment between these epizootics is poorly understood but multiple mechanisms have been proposed, including, among others, a separate enzootic transmission cycle that maintains Y. pestis without involvement of epizootic hosts and persistence of Y. pestis within epizootic host populations without causing high mortality within those populations. We live-trapped and collected fleas from black-tailed prairie dogs and other mammal species from sites with and without black-tailed prairie dogs in 2004 and 2005 and tested all fleas for presence of Y. pestis. Y. pestis was not detected in 2126 fleas collected in 2004 but was detected in 294 fleas collected from multiple sites in 2005, before and during a widespread epizootic that drastically reduced black-tailed prairie dog populations in the affected colonies. Temporal and spatial patterns of Y. pestis occurrence in fleas and genotyping of Y. pestis present in some infected fleas suggest Y. pestis was introduced multiple times from sources outside the study area and once introduced, was dispersed between several sites. We conclude Y. pestis likely was not present in these black-tailed prairie dog colonies prior to epizootic activity in these colonies. Although we did not identify likely enzootic hosts, we found evidence that deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) may serve as bridging hosts for Y. pestis between unknown enzootic hosts and black-tailed prairie dogs.

Forensic public health

Deliberate dissemination of a biological agent via several different routes presents the latest challenge to global public health security. Novel pathogens and transmission methods can easily be exploited to cause disease outbreaks. Advancements in molecular biology that make it possible to genetically modify, edit, or disrupt the genome of pathogens increase the disease risk of an accidental or intentional release of pathogens with pandemic potential. The occurrence of a disease at more than an endemic level may stimulate an investigation to determine the source of the disease, who has the disease, when it occurred, and how it spreads. When intentional release of pathogens is suspected, investigators have the additional task of attributing the outbreak not only to a pathogen but also to a human source. The deliberate nature of such dissemination may be obvious. However, some forms of bioterrorism may be more covert, requiring molecular methods to uncover. The field of microbial forensics emerged following the anthrax attack in the United States in 2001 to extend epidemiologic principles to aid in the investigation of bioterrorism incidents. Microbial forensics combines epidemiology with genomic and microbiologic methods, to identify, characterize, and ascribe the cause of an incident resulting from the intentional or unintentional release of a harmful pathogen. Unlike routine epidemiologic investigations, microbial forensic investigations are undertaken when there is a potential crime due to the release of a pathogen with disease-causing potential. The investigation is conducted to attribute cause to a source based on indisputable evidence and is used to support criminal charges against the perpetrator(s). However, because bioterrorism may be unannounced, the initial investigation will start the same as to any public health incident of concern. This chapter discusses how epidemiology integrated with laboratory science can be used to identify the source of diseases caused by microorganisms or toxins—especially for attribution purposes.

Small-Scale Die-Offs in Woodrats Support Long-Term Maintenance of Plague in the U.S. Southwest

Our longitudinal study of plague dynamics was conducted in north-central New Mexico to identify which species in the community were infected with plague, to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of the dynamics of plague epizootics, and to describe the dynamics of Yersinia pestis infection within individual hosts. A total of 3156 fleas collected from 535 small mammals of 8 species were tested for Y. pestis DNA. Nine fleas collected from six southern plains woodrats (Neotoma micropus) and from one rock squirrel (Otospermophilus variegatus) were positive for the pla gene of Y. pestis. None of 127 fleas collected from 17 woodrat nests was positive. Hemagglutinating antibodies to the Y. pestis-specific F1 antigen were detected in 11 rodents of 6 species. All parts of the investigated area were subjected to local disappearance of woodrats. Despite the active die-offs, some woodrats always were present within the relatively limited endemic territory and apparently were never exposed to plague. Our observations suggest that small-scale die-offs in woodrats can support maintenance of plague in the active U.S. Southwestern focus.

Protein abundances can distinguish between naturally-occurring and laboratory strains of Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague

The rapid pace of bacterial evolution enables organisms to adapt to the laboratory environment with repeated passage and thus diverge from naturally-occurring environmental ("wild") strains. Distinguishing wild and laboratory strains is clearly important for biodefense and bioforensics; however, DNA sequence data alone has thus far not provided a clear signature, perhaps due to lack of understanding of how diverse genome changes lead to convergent phenotypes, difficulty in detecting certain types of mutations, or perhaps because some adaptive modifications are epigenetic. Monitoring protein abundance, a molecular measure of phenotype, can overcome some of these difficulties. We have assembled a collection of Yersinia pestis proteomics datasets from our own published and unpublished work, and from a proteomics data archive, and demonstrated that protein abundance data can clearly distinguish laboratory-adapted from wild. We developed a lasso logistic regression classifier that uses binary (presence/absence) or quantitative protein abundance measures to predict whether a sample is laboratory-adapted or wild that proved to be ~98% accurate, as judged by replicated 10-fold cross-validation. Protein features selected by the classifier accord well with our previous study of laboratory adaptation in Y. pestis. The input data was derived from a variety of unrelated experiments and contained significant confounding variables. We show that the classifier is robust with respect to these variables. The methodology is able to discover signatures for laboratory facility and culture medium that are largely independent of the signature of laboratory adaptation. Going beyond our previous laboratory evolution study, this work suggests that proteomic differences between laboratory-adapted and wild Y. pestis are general, potentially pointing to a process that could apply to other species as well. Additionally, we show that proteomics datasets (even archived data collected for different purposes) contain the information necessary to distinguish wild and laboratory samples. This work has clear applications in biomarker detection as well as biodefense.

VNTR diversity in Yersinia pestis isolates from an animal challenge study reveals the potential for in vitro mutations during laboratory cultivation

Underlying mutation rates and other evolutionary forces shape the population structure of bacteria in nature. Although easily overlooked, similar forces are at work in the laboratory and may influence observed mutations. Here, we investigated tissue samples and Yersinia pestis isolates from a rodent laboratory challenge with strain CO92 using whole genome sequencing and multi-locus variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) analysis (MLVA). We identified six VNTR mutations that were found to have occurred in vitro during laboratory cultivation rather than in vivo during the rodent challenge. In contrast, no single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) mutations were observed, either in vivo or in vitro. These results were consistent with previously published mutation rates and the calculated number of Y. pestis generations that occurred during the in vitro versus the in vivo portions of the experiment. When genotyping disease outbreaks, the potential for in vitro mutations should be considered, particularly when highly variable genetic markers such as VNTRs are used.

Whole genome multilocus sequence typing as an epidemiologic tool for Yersinia pestis

Human plague is a severe and often fatal zoonotic disease caused by Yersinia pestis. For public health investigations of human cases, nonintensive whole genome molecular typing tools, capable of defining epidemiologic relationships, are advantageous. Whole genome multilocus sequence typing (wgMLST) is a recently developed methodology that simplifies genomic analyses by transforming millions of base pairs of sequence into character data for each gene. We sequenced 13 US Y. pestis isolates with known epidemiologic relationships. Sequences were assembled de novo, and multilocus sequence typing alleles were assigned by comparison against 3979 open reading frames from the reference strain CO92. Allele-based cluster analysis accurately grouped the 13 isolates, as well as 9 publicly available Y. pestis isolates, by their epidemiologic relationships. Our findings indicate wgMLST is a simplified, sensitive, and scalable tool for epidemiologic analysis of Y. pestis strains.

A review of methods for subtyping Yersinia pestis: From phenotypes to whole genome sequencing

Numerous subtyping methods have been applied to Yersinia pestis with varying success. Here, we review the various subtyping methods that have been applied to Y. pestis and their capacity for answering questions regarding the population genetics, phylogeography, and molecular epidemiology of this important human pathogen. Methods are evaluated in terms of expense, difficulty, transferability among laboratories, discriminatory power, usefulness for different study questions, and current applicability in light of the advent of whole genome sequencing.

Analysis of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium variable-number tandem-repeat data for public health investigation based on measured mutation rates and whole-genome sequence comparisons

Variable-number tandem repeats (VNTRs) mutate rapidly and can be useful markers for genotyping. While multilocus VNTR analysis (MLVA) is increasingly used in the detection and investigation of food-borne outbreaks caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) and other bacterial pathogens, MLVA data analysis usually relies on simple clustering approaches that may lead to incorrect interpretations. Here, we estimated the rates of copy number change at each of the five loci commonly used for S. Typhimurium MLVA, during in vitro and in vivo passage. We found that loci STTR5, STTR6, and STTR10 changed during passage but STTR3 and STTR9 did not. Relative rates of change were consistent across in vitro and in vivo growth and could be accurately estimated from diversity measures of natural variation observed during large outbreaks. Using a set of 203 isolates from a series of linked outbreaks and whole-genome sequencing of 12 representative isolates, we assessed the accuracy and utility of several alternative methods for analyzing and interpreting S. Typhimurium MLVA data. We show that eBURST analysis was accurate and informative. For construction of MLVA-based trees, a novel distance metric, based on the geometric model of VNTR evolution coupled with locus-specific weights, performed better than the commonly used simple or categorical distance metrics. The data suggest that, for the purpose of identifying potential transmission clusters for further investigation, isolates whose profiles differ at one of the rapidly changing STTR5, STTR6, and STTR10 loci should be collapsed into the same cluster.

Two-step source tracing strategy of Yersinia pestis and its historical epidemiology in a specific region

Source tracing of pathogens is critical for the control and prevention of infectious diseases. Genome sequencing by high throughput technologies is currently feasible and popular, leading to the burst of deciphered bacterial genome sequences. Utilizing the flooding genomic data for source tracing of pathogens in outbreaks is promising, and challenging as well. Here, we employed Yersinia pestis genomes from a plague outbreak at Xinghai county of China in 2009 as an example, to develop a simple two-step strategy for rapid source tracing of the outbreak. The first step was to define the phylogenetic position of the outbreak strains in a whole species tree, and the next step was to provide a detailed relationship across the outbreak strains and their suspected relatives. Through this strategy, we observed that the Xinghai plague outbreak was caused by Y. pestis that circulated in the local plague focus, where the majority of historical plague epidemics in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau may originate from. The analytical strategy developed here will be of great help in fighting against the outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, by pinpointing the source of pathogens rapidly with genomic epidemiological data and microbial forensics information.

Genetic characterization of Theileria equi infecting horses in North America: evidence for a limited source of U.S. introductions

Background

Theileria equi is a tick-borne apicomplexan hemoparasite that causes equine piroplasmosis. This parasite has a worldwide distribution but the United States was considered to be free of this disease until recently.

Methods

We used samples from 37 horses to determine genetic relationships among North American T. equi using the 18S rRNA gene and microsatellites. We developed a DNA fingerprinting panel of 18 microsatellite markers using the first complete genome sequence of T. equi.

Results

A maximum parsimony analysis of 18S rRNA sequences grouped the samples into two major clades. The first clade (n = 36) revealed a high degree of nucleotide similarity in U.S. T. equi, with just 0–2 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among samples. The remaining sample fell into a second clade that was genetically divergent (48 SNPs) from the other U.S. samples. This sample was collected at the Texas border, but may have originated in Mexico. We genotyped T. equi from the U.S. using microsatellite markers and found a moderate amount of genetic diversity (2–8 alleles per locus). The field samples were mostly from a 2009 Texas outbreak (n = 22) although samples from five other states were also included in this study. Using Weir and Cockerham’s F_ST estimator (θ) we found strong population differentiation of the Texas and Georgia subpopulations (θ = 0.414), which was supported by a neighbor-joining tree created with predominant single haplotypes. Single-clone infections were found in 27 of the 37 samples (73%), allowing us to identify 15 unique genotypes.

Conclusions

The placement of most T. equi into one monophyletic clade by 18S is suggestive of a limited source of introduction into the U.S. When applied to a broader cross section of worldwide samples, these molecular tools should improve source tracking of T. equi outbreaks and may help prevent the spread of this tick-borne parasite.

A dog-associated primary pneumonic plague in Qinghai Province, China

BACKGROUND

Primary pneumonic plague (PPP) caused by Yersinia pestis is the most threatening clinical form of plague. An outbreak was reported in July 2009 in Qinghai Province, China.

METHODS

This outbreak was investigated by clinical, epidemiological, bacteriological, and immunological methods. Multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) was used to track the source of the outbreak.

RESULTS

The index case, a patient with PPP, contaminated 11 close contacts. All the 12 cases, including the index patient, experienced sudden onset of fever, headache, and productive coughing with bloody sputum. Three of them died. Nevertheless, another 61 direct and 256 indirect contacts were not infected during the 2-week quarantine. Antibodies to F1 antigen were detected in 9 survival cases, with a 4-fold increase in titers in serum samples collected at different periods. Seven strains of Y. pestis were isolated from dogs and patients. Field investigation and MLVA of the isolated strains revealed that this outbreak was started by a deceased dog.

CONCLUSION

Dogs are believed to be an indicator animal for plague surveillance, but their association with PPP is rare. Our results provide evidence for this possibility, which suggests the public health significance of dogs as a source of plague.

Within-host evolution of Burkholderia pseudomallei in four cases of acute melioidosis

Little is currently known about bacterial pathogen evolution and adaptation within the host during acute infection. Previous studies of Burkholderia pseudomallei, the etiologic agent of melioidosis, have shown that this opportunistic pathogen mutates rapidly both in vitro and in vivo at tandemly repeated loci, making this organism a relevant model for studying short-term evolution. In the current study, B. pseudomallei isolates cultured from multiple body sites from four Thai patients with disseminated melioidosis were subjected to fine-scale genotyping using multilocus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA). In order to understand and model the in vivo variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) mutational process, we characterized the patterns and rates of mutations in vitro through parallel serial passage experiments of B. pseudomallei. Despite the short period of infection, substantial divergence from the putative founder genotype was observed in all four melioidosis cases. This study presents a paradigm for examining bacterial evolution over the short timescale of an acute infection. Further studies are required to determine whether the mutational process leads to phenotypic alterations that impact upon bacterial fitness in vivo. Our findings have important implications for future sampling strategies, since colonies in a single clinical sample may be genetically heterogeneous, and organisms in a culture taken late in the infective process may have undergone considerable genetic change compared with the founder inoculum.