Cholera Epidemic in South Sudan and Uganda and Need for International Collaboration in Cholera Control

Time to control of anthrax outbreaks in Africa, 2014-2023: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Anthrax is a notifiable zoonotic disease targeted for control in Africa, however, outbreaks due to anthrax are still frequent and large. Surveillance systems should monitor and detect anthrax outbreaks early for prompt response. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine anthrax outbreaks epidemiological investigations gaps and time to control in Africa, Jan 2014-Dec 2023. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Google Scholar, and Web of Science databases using PICO framework for studies on anthrax investigations. Using Covidence, we screened and extracted studies, analysed descriptive data using Microsoft Excel and quantitative data using RStudio version 4.3.1. We calculated heterogeneity and confidence intervals around pooled effect and performed risk of bias assessment. Ten of 1,639 studies met eligibility criteria and were included. Pooled median duration to control was 40.5 (IQR 80.8) days and estimated duration of outbreak end was 59.2 days (95% CI: 7.4-111.0), far beyond two incubation periods of anthrax (14 days). Median time to alert was 5 days (95% CI:0-490). A third (30%) didn't investigate animal anthrax. No study reported use of all levels of case definitions, and no study translated case investigation forms into local languages. A third (30%) of studies omitted time component of descriptive epidemiology and 22% of studies used cross-sectional study design. All studies used epidemiologists for case investigations, with 90% employing field epidemiologists, only one study used a social worker. Only 20% of studies used government funds; majority (80%) instituted public health actions. Risk of bias was at 0-20%. Median duration to control was greater than two anthrax incubation periods indicating delayed response. Several epidemiological gaps including delayed outbreak verification, focus on human anthrax and neglect of zoonotic aspects, and inappropriate working case definitions were highlighted. Timely and comprehensive epidemiological investigations, with a One Health approach to anthrax outbreak control is recommended. Systematic Review Registration: The protocol that guided this review was registered on PROSPERO: CRD42024498034.

Seroincidence of Enteric Fever, Juba, South Sudan

We applied a new serosurveillance tool to estimate typhoidal Salmonella burden using samples collected during 2020 from a population in Juba, South Sudan. By using dried blood spot testing, we found an enteric fever seroincidence rate of 30/100 person-years and cumulative incidence of 74% over a 4-year period.

Epidemiology of Cholera Outbreak and Summary of the Preparedness and Response Activities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2016

Background

Cholera is a major public health problem in Ethiopia. This study aimed to generate evidence to better understand the epidemiology of cholera as well as chronicle the city administration's emergency management efforts during the Addis Ababa cholera outbreak in 2016.

Method

A descriptive analysis was performed using the cholera outbreak data collected from June 8 to October 31, 2016. A case was defined as a patient aged 5 years or older who develops acute watery diarrhea with or without vomiting. Administrative and laboratory finding reports were also used, as well as documented situational updates.

Result

A total of 8,083 cases (AR of 0.24 percent) with 15 deaths (CFR of 0.18 percent) were reported. Males in unskilled manual occupations and housewives accounted for 2,198 (27.2%) and 1,195 (14.8%), respectively, of the total. A total of 6,908 cases (85.46 percent) sought medical attention within two days of the onset of the condition. The presence of the Kolfie river as well as the relatively confined living conditions of the residents aided in the emergence and rapid spread of the disease. The increased in-and-out movement of people, combined with the city administration's deficient development infrastructure of water, hygiene, and sanitation, contributes to higher morbidity and a longer duration of the outbreak. Multiple command posts established in various locations as well as a lack of collaboration among relevant stakeholders resulted in inefficient information and resource management. Furthermore, there is a lack of risk factor surveillance for the early detection of cholera-causing agents. Conclusion and Recommendations. This outbreak caused significant morbidity and mortality. Prioritizing early risk detection, implementing preventive measures, and developing positive working relationships with relevant parties are all critical. A well-established community-based surveillance system and incident management system (IMS) will be required for future emergency management. It is recommended that the city administration make critical adjustments to its developmental infrastructures related to water, sanitation, and hygiene and implement risk factor surveillance from sewerage lines for the early detection of agents that cause cholera.

Seventh Pandemic Vibrio cholerae O1 Sublineages, Central African Republic

Four cholera outbreaks were reported in the Central African Republic during 1997–2016. We show that the outbreak isolates were Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype Inaba from 3 seventh pandemic El Tor sublineages originating from West Africa (sublineages T7 and T9) or the African Great Lakes Region (T10).

Highly targeted spatiotemporal interventions against cholera epidemics, 2000-19: a scoping review

Globally, cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control. Although mass campaigns covering large populations are commonly used to control cholera, spatial targeting of case households and their radius is emerging as a potentially efficient strategy. We did a Scoping Review to investigate the effectiveness of interventions delivered through case-area targeted intervention, its optimal spatiotemporal scale, and its effectiveness in reducing transmission. 53 articles were retrieved. We found that antibiotic chemoprophylaxis, point-of-use water treatment, and hygiene promotion can rapidly reduce household transmission, and single-dose vaccination can extend the duration of protection within the radius of households. Evidence supports a high-risk spatiotemporal zone of 100 m around case households, for 7 days. Two evaluations separately showed reductions in household transmission when targeting case households, and in size and duration of case clusters when targeting radii. Although case-area targeted intervention shows promise for outbreak control, it is critically dependent on early detection capacity and requires prospective evaluation of intervention packages.

Early detection of cholera epidemics to support control in fragile states: estimation of delays and potential epidemic sizes

BACKGROUND

Cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected states. Rapid detection and response to small cholera clusters is key for efficient control before an epidemic propagates. To understand the capacity for early response in fragile states, we investigated delays in outbreak detection, investigation, response, and laboratory confirmation, and we estimated epidemic sizes. We assessed predictors of delays, and annual changes in response time.

METHODS

We compiled a list of cholera outbreaks in fragile and conflict-affected states from 2008 to 2019. We searched for peer-reviewed articles and epidemiological reports. We evaluated delays from the dates of symptom onset of the primary case, and the earliest dates of outbreak detection, investigation, response, and confirmation. Information on how the outbreak was alerted was summarized. A branching process model was used to estimate epidemic size at each delay. Regression models were used to investigate the association between predictors and delays to response.

RESULTS

Seventy-six outbreaks from 34 countries were included. Median delays spanned 1-2 weeks: from symptom onset of the primary case to presentation at the health facility (5 days, IQR 5-5), detection (5 days, IQR 5-6), investigation (7 days, IQR 5.8-13.3), response (10 days, IQR 7-18), and confirmation (11 days, IQR 7-16). In the model simulation, the median delay to response (10 days) with 3 seed cases led to a median epidemic size of 12 cases (upper range, 47) and 8% of outbreaks ≥ 20 cases (increasing to 32% with a 30-day delay to response). Increased outbreak size at detection (10 seed cases) and a 10-day median delay to response resulted in an epidemic size of 34 cases (upper range 67 cases) and < 1% of outbreaks < 20 cases. We estimated an annual global decrease in delay to response of 5.2% (95% CI 0.5-9.6, p = 0.03). Outbreaks signaled by immediate alerts were associated with a reduction in delay to response of 39.3% (95% CI 5.7-61.0, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

From 2008 to 2019, median delays from symptom onset of the primary case to case presentation and to response were 5 days and 10 days, respectively. Our model simulations suggest that depending on the outbreak size (3 versus 10 seed cases), in 8 to 99% of scenarios, a 10-day delay to response would result in large clusters that would be difficult to contain. Improving the delay to response involves rethinking the integration at local levels of event-based detection, rapid diagnostic testing for cluster validation, and integrated alert, investigation, and response.

Successive epidemic waves of cholera in South Sudan between 2014 and 2017: a descriptive epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Between 2014 and 2017, successive cholera epidemics occurred in South Sudan within the context of civil war, population displacement, flooding, and drought. We aim to describe the spatiotemporal and molecular features of the three distinct epidemic waves and explore the role of vaccination campaigns, precipitation, and population movement in shaping cholera spread in this complex setting.

METHODS

In this descriptive epidemiological study, we analysed cholera linelist data to describe the spatiotemporal progression of the epidemics. We placed whole-genome sequence data from pandemic Vibrio cholerae collected throughout these epidemics into the global phylogenetic context. Using whole-genome sequence data in combination with other molecular attributes, we characterise the relatedness of strains circulating in each wave and the region. We investigated the association of rainfall and the instantaneous basic reproduction number using distributed lag non-linear models, compared county-level attack rates between those with early and late reactive vaccination campaigns, and explored the consistency of the spatial patterns of displacement and suspected cholera case reports.

FINDINGS

The 2014 (6389 cases) and 2015 (1818 cases) cholera epidemics in South Sudan remained spatially limited whereas the 2016-17 epidemic (20 438 cases) spread among settlements along the Nile river. Initial cases of each epidemic were reported in or around Juba soon after the start of the rainy season, but we found no evidence that rainfall modulated transmission during each epidemic. All isolates analysed had similar genotypic and phenotypic characteristics, closely related to sequences from Uganda and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Large-scale population movements between counties of South Sudan with cholera outbreaks were consistent with the spatial distribution of cases. 21 of 26 vaccination campaigns occurred during or after the county-level epidemic peak. Counties vaccinated on or after the peak incidence week had 2·2 times (95% CI 2·1-2·3) higher attack rates than those where vaccination occurred before the peak.

INTERPRETATION

Pandemic V cholerae of the same clonal origin was isolated throughout the study period despite interepidemic periods of no reported cases. Although the complex emergency in South Sudan probably shaped some of the observed spatial and temporal patterns of cases, the full scope of transmission determinants remains unclear. Timely and well targeted use of vaccines can reduce the burden of cholera; however, rapid vaccine deployment in complex emergencies remains challenging.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Glucose sensitizes the stationary and persistent population of Vibrio cholerae to ciprofloxacin

The subject of analysis in this report was the antibiotic susceptibility of V. cholerae under glucose supplementation since the metabolites can significantly alter the antibiotic sensitivity of bacteria. Glucose could change the antibiotic susceptibility in a growth phase-dependent manner, however, the antibiotic susceptibility of exponentially growing cells was not affected in the presence of glucose. What has been shown is that the stationary phase cells which show higher antibiotic tolerance, could be sensitized to ciprofloxacin and ampicillin by glucose supplementation (tenfold sensitive). The glucose increases the respiration which in turn increases the metabolism and cell division rate. Furthermore, the addition of glucose could increase the susceptibility of persister cells to ciprofloxacin only. In general, the bacterial susceptibility can be increased by combining the antibiotics with glucose.

Environmental Surveillance of Vibrio cholerae O1/O139 in the Five African Great Lakes and Other Major Surface Water Sources in Uganda

Cholera is a major public health problem in the African Great Lakes basin. Two hypotheses might explain this observation, namely the lakes are reservoirs of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139 bacteria, or cholera outbreaks are a result of repeated pathogen introduction from the neighboring communities/countries but the lakes facilitate the introductions. A prospective study was conducted in Uganda between February 2015 and January 2016 in which 28 selected surface water sources were tested for the presence of V. cholerae species using cholera rapid test and multiplex polymerase chain reaction. Of 322 water samples tested, 35 (10.8%) were positive for V. cholerae non O1/non O139 and two samples tested positive for non-toxigenic atypical V. cholerae O139. None of the samples tested had toxigenic V. cholerae O1 or O139 that are responsible for cholera epidemics. The Lake Albert region registered the highest number of positive tests for V. cholerae non O1/non O139 at 47% (9/19). The peak period for V. cholerae non O1/non O139 positive tests was in March–July 2015 which coincided with the first rainy season in Uganda. This study showed that the surface water sources, including the African Great Lakes in Uganda, are less likely to be reservoirs for the observed V. cholerae O1 or O139 epidemics, though they are natural habitats for V. cholerae non O1/non O139 and atypical non-toxigenic V. cholerae O139. Further studies by WGS tests of non-toxigenic atypical V. cholerae O139 and physicochemical tests of surface water sources that supports V. cholerae should be done to provide more information. Since V. cholerae non O1/non O139 may cause other human infections, their continued surveillance is needed to understand their potential pathogenicity.

Molecular characterization of Vibrio cholerae responsible for cholera epidemics in Uganda by PCR, MLVA and WGS

Background

For almost 50 years sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, has experienced several outbreaks due to Vibrio cholerae. Our aim was to determine the genetic relatedness and spread of strains responsible for cholera outbreaks in Uganda.

Methodology/Principal findings

Sixty-three V. cholerae isolates collected from outbreaks in Uganda between 2014 and 2016 were tested using multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR), multi-locus variable number of tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) and whole genome sequencing (WGS). Three closely related MLVA clonal complexes (CC) were identified: CC1, 32% (20/63); CC2, 40% (25/63) and CC3, 28% (18/63). Each CC contained isolates from a different WGS clade. These clades were contained in the third wave of the 7^th cholera pandemic strain, two clades were contained in the transmission event (T)10 lineage and other in T13. Analysing the dates and genetic relatedness revealed that V. cholerae genetic lineages spread between districts within Uganda and across national borders.

Conclusion

The V. cholerae strains showed local and regional transmission within Uganda and the East African region. To prevent, control and eliminate cholera, these countries should implement strong cross-border collaboration and regional coordination of preventive activities.

Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease, essentially was eliminated in the western world many decades ago, but has continued to cause many deaths in sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Asia. Cholera diagnosis in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, is by stool culture, serology and biochemical methods. These testing methods are unable to establish the relatedness, virulence and spread of Vibrio cholerae in region. To determine the spread, relatedness and virulence of V. cholerae responsible for the various cholera outbreaks in Uganda, we used DNA-based testing methods. We tested 63 V. cholerae isolates from samples collected in Uganda from 2014–2016. Our results showed three distinct lineages of genetically related cholera-causing bacteria. These organisms showed internal spread in Uganda and cross-border spread to neighboring countries in East Africa. These findings provide a valuable baseline and help define the context for directing control measures and technologies for cholera prevention in East Africa.