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Jokinen M, Sallinen S, Jones MM, Sirén J, Guilbault E, Susi H, Laine AL. The first arriving virus shapes within-host viral diversity during natural epidemics. Proc Biol Sci 2023; 290:20231486. [PMID: 37700649 PMCID: PMC10498040 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.1486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Viral diversity has been discovered across scales from host individuals to populations. However, the drivers of viral community assembly are still largely unknown. Within-host viral communities are formed through co-infections, where the interval between the arrival times of viruses may vary. Priority effects describe the timing and order in which species arrive in an environment, and how early colonizers impact subsequent community assembly. To study the effect of the first-arriving virus on subsequent infection patterns of five focal viruses, we set up a field experiment using naïve Plantago lanceolata plants as sentinels during a seasonal virus epidemic. Using joint species distribution modelling, we find both positive and negative effects of early season viral infection on late season viral colonization patterns. The direction of the effect depends on both the host genotype and which virus colonized the host early in the season. It is well established that co-occurring viruses may change the virulence and transmission of viral infections. However, our results show that priority effects may also play an important, previously unquantified role in viral community assembly. The assessment of these temporal dynamics within a community ecological framework will improve our ability to understand and predict viral diversity in natural systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maija Jokinen
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zürich, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Suvi Sallinen
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, 00014, Finland
| | - Mirkka M. Jones
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, 00014, Finland
- Institute of Biotechnology, HiLIFE-Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, 00014, Finland
| | - Jukka Sirén
- Institute of Biotechnology, HiLIFE-Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, 00014, Finland
| | - Emy Guilbault
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, 00014, Finland
| | - Hanna Susi
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, 00014, Finland
| | - Anna-Liisa Laine
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zürich, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, 00014, Finland
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Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1009174. [PMID: 34214074 PMCID: PMC8291727 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009174] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2020] [Revised: 07/20/2021] [Accepted: 05/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014–2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKV and 338 cities by CHIKV. We analyzed risk factors for invasion using linear and logistic regression models. We also estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. We assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities using a suite of (i) gravity models, (ii) Stouffer’s rank models, and (iii) radiation models with two types of distance metrics, geographic distance and travel time between cities. Invasion risk was best captured by a gravity model when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence; Stouffer’s rank model with geographic distance performed similarly well. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5–2.0) from the gravity models suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Similarities between the epidemics were highlighted by jointly fitted models, which were preferred over individual models when the transmission intensity was allowed to vary across arboviruses. However, ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV. Understanding the spread of infectious diseases across space and time is critical for preparedness, designing interventions, and elucidating mechanisms underlying transmission. We analyzed human case data from over 500,000 reported cases to investigate the spread of the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemics in Colombia. Both viruses were introduced into northern Colombia. We found that gravity models and Stouffer’s rank models best described transmission and that transmission mainly occurred over short distances. Our results highlight similarities and key differences between the ZIKV and CHIKV epidemics in Colombia, which can be used to anticipate future epidemic waves and prioritize cities for active surveillance and targeted interventions.
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Haider N, Vairo F, Ippolito G, Zumla A, Kock RA. Basic Reproduction Number of Chikungunya Virus Transmitted by Aedes Mosquitoes. Emerg Infect Dis 2021; 26:2429-2431. [PMID: 32946722 PMCID: PMC7510706 DOI: 10.3201/eid2610.190957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
We estimated the weighted mean basic reproduction number (R0) of chikungunya virus based on outbreak size. R0 was 3.4 (95% CI 2.4–4.2) and varied for 2 primary chikungunya mosquito vectors: 4.1 (95% CI 1.5–6.6) for Aedes aegypti and 2.8 (95% CI 1.8–3.8) for Ae. albopictus.
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Martínez D, Hernández C, Muñoz M, Armesto Y, Cuervo A, Ramírez JD. Identification of Aedes (Diptera: Culicidae) Species and Arboviruses Circulating in Arauca, Eastern Colombia. Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.602190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The identification of vector species and their natural infection with arboviruses results in important data for the control of their transmission. However, for the eastern region of Colombia, this information is limited. Therefore, this study morphologically and molecularly identified species of the genus Aedes and the detection of arboviruses (Dengue, Chikungunya, Zika, and Mayaro) in female mosquitoes (individually) present in three municipalities (Saravena, Arauquita, and Tame) by amplifying the genetic material using RT-PCR (reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction) in the department of Arauca, eastern Colombia. Inconsistencies between morphological and molecular identification were detected in 13 individuals with Aedes albopictus initially determined as Aedes aegypti based on morphology (n = 13). Molecular identification showed the simultaneous presence of A. aegypti (n = 111) and A. albopictus (n = 58) in the urban municipalities of Saravena and Arauquita. These individuals were naturally infected with Dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV). The most frequent arbovirus was DENV-1 with an infection rate of 40.7% (11/27) for A. aegypti and 39.7% (23/58) for A. albopictus, which was followed by CHIKV with an infection rate of 1.8% for A. aegypti (2/111) and 6.9% for A. albopictus (4/58). Additionally, a mixed infection of DENV-1 and CHIKV was obtained in 4.5% of A. aegypti (5/111). Zika virus (ZIKV) and Mayaro virus (MAYV) infections were not detected. This study found that barcoding (fragment gene COI) is a successful method for identifying Aedes species. Additionally, we recommend the individual processing of insects as a more accurate strategy for arboviruses detection since the infection rate is obtained and co-infection between DENV-1 and CHIKV is also possible.
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Strauss R, Lorenz E, Kristensen K, Eibach D, Torres J, May J, Castro J. Investigating the utility of Google trends for Zika and Chikungunya surveillance in Venezuela. BMC Public Health 2020; 20:947. [PMID: 32546159 PMCID: PMC7298838 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-09059-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2019] [Accepted: 06/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Chikungunya and Zika Virus are vector-borne diseases responsible for a substantial disease burden in the Americas. Between 2013 and 2016, no cases of Chikungunya or Zika Virus were reported by the Venezuelan Ministry of Health. However, peaks of undiagnosed fever cases have been observed during the same period. In the context of scarce data, alternative surveillance methods are needed. Assuming that unusual peaks of acute fever cases correspond to the incidences of both diseases, this study aims to evaluate the use of Google Trends as an indicator of the epidemic behavior of Chikungunya and Zika. METHODS Time-series cross-correlations of acute fever cases reported by the Venezuelan Ministry of Health and data on Google search queries related to Chikungunya and Zika were calculated. RESULTS A temporal distinction has been made so that acute febrile cases occurring between 25th of June 2014 and 23rd of April 2015 were attributed to the Chikungunya virus, while cases occurring between 30th of April 2015 and 29th of April 2016 were ascribed to the Zika virus. The highest cross-correlations for each disease were shown at a lag of 0 (r = 0.784) for Chikungunya and at + 1 (r = 0.754) for Zika. CONCLUSION The strong positive correlation between Google search queries and official data on acute febrile cases suggests that this resource can be used as an indicator of endemic urban arboviruses activity. In the Venezuelan context, Internet search queries might help to overcome some of the gaps that exist in the national surveillance system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricardo Strauss
- Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Research Group Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Hamburg, Germany.
| | - Eva Lorenz
- Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Research Group Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Hamburg, Germany.,Institute of Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University Medical Center, Mainz, Germany
| | - Kaja Kristensen
- Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Research Group Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Hamburg, Germany.,Faculty of Life Sciences, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Ulmenliet 20, 21033, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Daniel Eibach
- Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Research Group Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Jaime Torres
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Jürgen May
- Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Research Group Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Julio Castro
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela
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Liu Y, Lillepold K, Semenza JC, Tozan Y, Quam MBM, Rocklöv J. Reviewing estimates of the basic reproduction number for dengue, Zika and chikungunya across global climate zones. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 182:109114. [PMID: 31927301 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2019] [Revised: 01/01/2020] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Globally, dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya are important viral mosquito-borne diseases that infect millions of people annually. Their geographic range includes not only tropical areas but also sub-tropical and temperate zones such as Japan and Italy. The relative severity of these arboviral disease outbreaks can vary depending on the setting. In this study we explore variation in the epidemiologic potential of outbreaks amongst these climatic zones and arboviruses in order to elucidate potential reasons behind such differences. METHODOLOGY We reviewed the peer-reviewed literature (PubMed) to obtain basic reproduction number (R0) estimates for dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya from tropical, sub-tropical and temperate regions. We also computed R0 estimates for temperate and sub-tropical climate zones, based on the outbreak curves in the initial outbreak phase. Lastly we compared these estimates across climate zones, defined by latitude. RESULTS Of 2115 studies, we reviewed the full text of 128 studies and included 65 studies in our analysis. Our results suggest that the R0 of an arboviral outbreak depends on climate zone, with lower R0 estimates, on average, in temperate zones (R0 = 2.03) compared to tropical (R0 = 3.44) and sub-tropical zones (R0 = 10.29). The variation in R0 was considerable, ranging from 0.16 to 65. The largest R0 was for dengue (65) and was estimated by the Ross-Macdonald model in the tropical zone, whereas the smallest R0 (0.16) was for Zika virus and was estimated statistically from an outbreak curve in the sub-tropical zone. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate climate zone to be an important determinant of the basic reproduction number, R0, for dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya. The role of other factors as determinants of R0, such as methods, environmental and social conditions, and disease control, should be further investigated. The results suggest that R0 may increase in temperate regions in response to global warming, and highlight the increasing need for strengthening preparedness and control activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Liu
- School of International Business, Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College, Zhangzhou, 363105, China.
| | - Kate Lillepold
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jan C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Yesim Tozan
- New York University, College of Global Public Health, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Mikkel B M Quam
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
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Maljkovic Berry I, Rutvisuttinunt W, Sippy R, Beltran-Ayala E, Figueroa K, Ryan S, Srikanth A, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Endy T, Jarman RG. The origins of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Ecuador following increased migration from Venezuela and Colombia. BMC Evol Biol 2020; 20:31. [PMID: 32075576 PMCID: PMC7031975 DOI: 10.1186/s12862-020-1596-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2019] [Accepted: 02/11/2020] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In recent years, Ecuador and other South American countries have experienced an increase in arboviral diseases. A rise in dengue infections was followed by introductions of chikungunya and Zika, two viruses never before seen in many of these areas. Furthermore, the latest socioeconomic and political instability in Venezuela and the mass migration of its population into the neighboring countries has given rise to concerns of infectious disease spillover and escalation of arboviral spread in the region. RESULTS We performed phylogeographic analyses of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) virus genomes sampled from a surveillance site in Ecuador in 2014-2015, along with genomes from the surrounding countries. Our results revealed at least two introductions of DENV, in 2011 and late 2013, that initially originated from Venezuela and/or Colombia. The introductions were subsequent to increases in the influx of Venezuelan and Colombian citizens into Ecuador, which in 2013 were 343% and 214% higher than in 2009, respectively. However, we show that Venezuela has historically been an important source of DENV dispersal in this region, even before the massive exodus of its population, suggesting already established paths of viral distribution. Like DENV, CHIKV was introduced into Ecuador at multiple time points in 2013-2014, but unlike DENV, these introductions were associated with the Caribbean. Our findings indicated no direct CHIKV connection between Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela as of 2015, suggesting that CHIKV was, at this point, not following the paths of DENV spread. CONCLUSION Our results reveal that Ecuador is vulnerable to arbovirus import from many geographic locations, emphasizing the need of continued surveillance and more diversified prevention strategies. Importantly, increase in human movement along established paths of viral dissemination, combined with regional outbreaks and epidemics, may facilitate viral spread and lead to novel virus introductions. Thus, strengthening infectious disease surveillance and control along migration routes and improving access to healthcare for the vulnerable populations is of utmost importance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Irina Maljkovic Berry
- Viral Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA.
| | - Wiriya Rutvisuttinunt
- Viral Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Rachel Sippy
- Institute for Global Health and Translational Science, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA
| | - Efrain Beltran-Ayala
- Department of Medicine, Technical University of Machala, Machala, El Oro, Ecuador
| | - Katherine Figueroa
- Viral Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Sadie Ryan
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.,Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Abhinaya Srikanth
- Viral Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Anna M Stewart-Ibarra
- Institute for Global Health and Translational Science, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA.,Department of Medicine, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA.,Department of Montevideo, InterAmerican Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Timothy Endy
- Department of Medicine, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA.,Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA
| | - Richard G Jarman
- Viral Diseases Branch, Walter Reed Army institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
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Galan-Huerta KA, Zomosa-Signoret VC, Vidaltamayo R, Caballero-Sosa S, Fernández-Salas I, Ramos-Jiménez J, Rivas-Estilla AM. Genetic Variability of Chikungunya Virus in Southern Mexico. Viruses 2019; 11:v11080714. [PMID: 31387277 PMCID: PMC6722872 DOI: 10.3390/v11080714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2019] [Revised: 07/23/2019] [Accepted: 07/23/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes Chikungunya fever. CHIKV entered Mexico through the state of Chiapas in October 2014. To fully understand the Chikungunya fever outbreak that occurred in southern Chiapas during 2015, we evaluated 22 PCR-confirmed CHIKV-positive patients, identified CHIKV genetic variability, reconstructed viral dispersal, and assessed possible viral mutations. Viruses were isolated and E2, 6K, and E1 genes were sequenced. We applied phylogenetic and phylogeographic approaches, modeled mutations, and estimated selective pressure. Different CHIKV strains circulated in Chiapas during summer 2015. Three isolates grouped themselves in a well-supported clade. Estimates show that the outbreak started in Ciudad Hidalgo and posteriorly dispersed towards Tapachula and neighboring municipalities. We found six non-synonymous mutations in our isolates. Two mutations occurred in one isolate and the remaining mutations occurred in single isolates. Mutations E2 T116I and E2 K221R changed the protein surface in contact with the host cell receptors. We could not find positive selected sites in our CHIKV sequences from southern Chiapas. This is the first viral phylogeographic reconstruction in Mexico characterizing the CHIKV outbreak in southern Chiapas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kame A Galan-Huerta
- Departamento de Bioquímica y Medicina Molecular, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo Leon, Av. Francisco I. Madero S/N, Mitras Centro, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon 64460, Mexico
| | - Viviana C Zomosa-Signoret
- Departamento de Bioquímica y Medicina Molecular, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo Leon, Av. Francisco I. Madero S/N, Mitras Centro, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon 64460, Mexico
| | - Román Vidaltamayo
- Departamento de Ciencias Básicas. Escuela de Medicina, Universidad de Monterrey, Av. Morones Prieto No. 4500 pte, San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo Leon 64238, Mexico
| | - Sandra Caballero-Sosa
- Clínica Hospital Dr. Roberto Nettel Flores, Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales de los Trabajadores del Estado, Av. Tuxtepec y Oaxaca S/N, Francisco Villa, Tapachula, Chiapas 30740, Mexico
| | - Ildefonso Fernández-Salas
- Centro Regional de Investigación en Salud Publica, Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica 4a Avenida Norte, esquina con calle 19 poniente S/N, Centro, Tapachula, Chiapas 30700, Mexico
- Facultad de Ciencias Biologicas, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Av. Pedro de Alba S/N, Ciudad Universitaria, San Nicolas de los Garza, Nuevo Leon 66455, Mexico
| | - Javier Ramos-Jiménez
- Servicio de Infectologia-Hospital Universitario Dr. Jose Eleuterio Gonzalez, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Av. Francisco I. Madero and Eduardo Aguirre Pequeño S/N, Mitras Centro, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon 64460, Mexico
| | - Ana M Rivas-Estilla
- Departamento de Bioquímica y Medicina Molecular, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo Leon, Av. Francisco I. Madero S/N, Mitras Centro, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon 64460, Mexico.
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