Spatio-Temporal Trends in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Germany

Evaluation of the Impact of Mobile Health App Vitadio in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Effective diabetes management requires a multimodal approach involving lifestyle changes, pharmacological treatment, and continuous patient education. Self-management demands can be overwhelming for patients, leading to lowered motivation, poor adherence, and compromised therapeutic outcomes. In this context, digital health apps are emerging as vital tools to provide personalized support and enhance diabetes management and clinical outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the impact of the digital health application Vitadio on glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Secondary objectives included evaluating its effects on cardiometabolic parameters (weight, BMI, waist circumference, blood pressure, and heart rate) and self-reported measures of diabetes distress and self-management.

METHODS

In this 6-month, 2-arm, multicenter, unblinded randomized controlled trial, patients aged 18 years or older diagnosed with T2DM were randomly assigned (1:1) to an intervention group (IG) receiving standard diabetes care reinforced by the digital health app Vitadio or to a control group (CG) provided solely with standard diabetes care. Vitadio provided a mobile-based self-management support tool featuring educational modules, motivational messages, peer support, personalized goal setting, and health monitoring. The personal consultant was available in the app to provide technical support for app-related issues. The primary outcome, assessed in the intention-to-treat population, was a change in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included changes in cardiometabolic measures and self-reported outcomes. Data were collected in 2 study centers: diabetologist practice in Dessau-Roßlau and the University of Dresden.

RESULTS

Between November 2022 and June 2023, a total of 276 patients were screened for eligibility, with 149 randomized to in intervention group (IG; n=73) and a control group (CG; n=76). The majority of participants were male (91/149, 61%). The dropout rate at month 6 was 19% (121/149). While both groups achieved significant HbA1c reduction at 6 months (IG: mean -0.8, SD 0.9%, P<.001; CG: mean -0.3, SD 0.7%, P=.001), the primary confirmatory analysis revealed statistically significant advantage of the IG (adjusted mean difference: -0.53%, SD 0.15, 95% CI -0.24 to -0.82; P<.001; effect size [Cohen d]=0.67, 95% CI 0.33-1). Significant between-group differences in favor of the IG were also observed for weight loss (P=.002), BMI (P=.001) and systolic blood pressure (P<.03). In addition, Vitadio users experienced greater reduction in diabetes-related distress (P<.03) and obtained more pronounced improvements in self-care practices in the areas of general diet (P<.001), specific diet (P<.03), and exercise (P<.03).

CONCLUSIONS

This trial provides evidence for the superior efficacy of Vitadio in lowering the HbA1c levels in T2DM patients compared to standard care. In addition, Vitadio contributed to improvements in cardiometabolic health, reduced diabetes-related distress, and enhanced self-management, highlighting its potential as an accessible digital tool for comprehensive diabetes management.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

German Clinical Trials Registry DRKS00027405; https://drks.de/search/de/trial/DRKS00027405.

Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Germany: a projection until 2040 including incidence trends observed during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Introduction

Previous studies indicate that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) will increase substantially over the coming decades. One projection from 2019 estimated an increase in prevalence in Germany by 54% to 77% (depending on future trends in incidence and mortality) between 2015 and 2040. We aim to update this projection by incorporating recently published trends in T2D incidence in Germany that include the changes during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Materials and methods

We used a partial differential equation that describes the illness-death model to project the age- and sex-specific T2D prevalence among adults between 2015 and 2040. This required input data for the age- and sex-specific incidence, mortality of the general population, mortality rate ratio of people with vs. without T2D and prevalence in the initial year of the projection. We considered five scenarios with different future trends in incidence and their impact on prevalence. Using the most recently available data on T2D incidence, we assumed that the incidence remains constant as observed in 2021 for the whole projection horizon (first scenario). In further scenarios, we assumed that the observed age- and sex-specific trends in incidence between 2015 and 2021 would continue until 2025 (second scenario), 2030 (third scenario), 2035 (fourth scenario) and 2040 (fifth scenario). One additional scenario assumed that the age-specific prevalence remains constant.

Results

Observed trends in incidence suggest a decrease between 2015 and 2017, and a slight upward trend thereafter until 2021 in most age groups. Depending on how long these observed increases in incidence continue, the number of people with T2D in Germany will increase from 6.8 million in 2015 to between 10.9 million and 14.2 million in 2040. These numbers correspond to increases in prevalence from 10.5% in 2015 to between 15.5% and 20.1% in 2040. In the constant prevalence scenario, the overall prevalence and number of people with T2D in 2040 was 11.4% and 8.1 million, respectively.

Conclusions

The future prevalence of T2D in Germany strongly depends on how long the recently observed increasing trend in T2D incidence will continue, which warrants close monitoring of these trends in post-pandemic years.

Modeling Chronic Disease Mortality by Methods From Accelerated Life Testing

We propose a parametric model for describing chronic disease mortality from cohort data and illustrate its use for Type 2 diabetes. The model uses ideas from accelerated life testing in reliability theory and conceptualizes the occurrence of a chronic disease as putting the observational unit to an enhanced stress level, which is supposed to shorten its lifetime. It further addresses the issue of semi-competing risk, that is, the asymmetry of death and diagnosis of disease, where the disease can be diagnosed before death, but not after. With respect to the cohort structure of the data, late entry into the cohort is taken into account and prevalent as well as incident cases inform the analysis. We finally give an extension of the model that allows age at disease diagnosis to be observed not exactly, but only partially within an interval. Model parameters can be straightforwardly estimated by Maximum Likelihood, using the assumption of a Gompertz distribution we show in a small simulation study that this works well. Data of the Cardiovascular Disease, Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study, a population-based cohort in the city of Halle (Saale) in the eastern part of Germany, are used for illustration.

Incidence trend of type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2021 in Germany: an analysis of health claims data of 11 million statutorily insured people

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of the study is to describe the time trend of type 2 diabetes incidence in the largest state of Germany, Bavaria, from 2012 to 2021, and to compare the incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020-2021) to the pre-pandemic period (2012-2019).

METHODS

This secondary data analysis uses health claims data provided by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KVB), covering approximately 11 million insurees, accounting for 85% of the total population of Bavaria, Germany. Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes cases in adults (≥20 years) coded as E11 (Diabetes mellitus, Type 2) or E14 (Unspecified diabetes mellitus) under ICD-10, German modification (ICD-10-GM) for the study period 2012 to 2021 were included. Annual and quarterly age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) stratified by sex, age and region were calculated using the European standard population. Sex-specific crude incidence rates (CIR) were calculated using 10-year age groups. Regression analyses adjusted for time trends, seasonal effects, and pandemic effects were used to analyse the incidence trend and to assess the effect of the pandemic.

RESULTS

Overall, 745,861 new cases of type 2 diabetes were diagnosed between 2012 and 2021: 50.4% (376,193 cases) in women. The male/female ratio remained stable over the observation period, while the median age at diagnosis decreased from 61 to 58 years in men and from 66 years to 61 years in women. ASIR were consistently higher for men compared with women, with the yearly difference remaining stable over time (2012: 18%; 2021: 20%). An overall decreasing trend in ASIR was observed during the study period, with a strong decrease from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021 for both sexes. For men, ASIR decreased from 1514 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 995 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.6% average annual reduction), and for women from 1238 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 796 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.8% average annual reduction). This downward trend was also observed for age groups above 50 years. Regression analyses showed no significant change in incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020 and 2021) compared with the pre-pandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

For the first time, a 10-year incidence trend of type 2 diabetes is reported for Germany, showing a strong decline from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021. The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes appears not to have been affected by the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite an overall increasing prevalence, the incidence is decreasing, potentially resulting from robust screening by family physicians, reducing the median age at diagnosis by 3 to 5 years. However, further investigation is needed to fully identify the reasons for the declining incidence trend. Continued incidence monitoring is necessary to identify the long-term trend and the potential effect of the pandemic on diagnoses of type 2 diabetes.

Healthcare and health situation of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany: The study GEDA 2021/2022-Diabetes

Background

The nationwide study German Health Update (GEDA) 2021/2022-Diabetes was conducted to assess the current healthcare and health situation of adults with diabetes in Germany.

Methods

GEDA 2021/2022-Diabetes comprises a sample of adults with diagnosed diabetes from the general population. The analysis focuses on adults aged 45 years and over with type 2 diabetes (N = 1,448) and provides selected indicators on diabetes care as well as mental, social and general health.

Results

87.5 % of participants aged 45 years and over with type 2 diabetes are treated with blood glucose-lowering medication. 36.5 % receive insulin alone or in combination with other antidiabetics; 0.7 % use an insulin pump. Almost 96 % had an HbA1c measurement in the last year and about two thirds each report annual foot and eye examinations, participation in a diabetes self-management education programme and self-monitoring of their feet and of blood glucose (12.0 % with continuous glucose monitoring). On average, the quality of diabetes care is perceived as moderate. 23.8 % rate their mental health as excellent/very good. More than a tenth each have anxiety or depressive symptoms and feelings of loneliness. Half rate their general health as very good/good.

Conclusions

There is a potential for improvement in the quality of diabetes care and the mental and physical health of adults with type 2 diabetes.

[Reference evaluations for estimating prevalence, incidence, and mortality of public health relevant diseases based on routine data]

The routine data of all statutorily insured persons according to the Data Transparency Regulation (DaTraV data) represent a promising data source for the recurrent and timely surveillance of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Germany. Thereby, it has become apparent that there is a high demand for reference evaluations that enable quick and regularly repeatable analyses on important NCDs. Against this background, ReFern-01 was initiated, a joint project of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and the Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices (BfArM). In collaboration with experts from the field of secondary data analysis and healthcare research, reference evaluations for estimating prevalence, incidence, and mortality for important public health-relevant diseases were developed. First, 11 central NCDs were selected by means of an online survey, and initial case definitions were created in conjunction with a literature review. These were then discussed and agreed upon in a virtual workshop. The created reference evaluations (analysis scripts) allow a standardized estimation of the mentioned epidemiological figures, which are comparable over time and regionally. In addition to providing the results, the scripts will be available at the BfArM for further analysis. Provided that remote access to the analysis of the DaTraV data is available in the future, the results of the ReFern project can strengthen the surveillance of NCDs and support public health actors, for example, in the planning and implementation of health promotion and prevention measures at the federal, state, county, and local levels.

Incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: analysis of routine data from 2015 to 2021

BACKGROUND

To date, there is no data available depicting the trend of the incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes across all age groups for the COVID-19 pandemic years in Germany.

METHODS

Based on anonymized routine data from nine million persons covered by statutory health insurance, newly diagnosed diabetes cases (ICD diagnosis E10.- to E14.-) in inpatient or (confirmed in two quarters) outpatient setting were estimated for 2015 to 2021, differentiating between type 1 and type 2 diabetes. The data were linked to the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation. The results are age-standardised (population as of 31 Dec. 2021).

RESULTS

Between 2015 and 2021, the incidence of type 1 diabetes increased from 9.5 to 11.6 per 100,000 persons (from 7,007 to 8,699 new cases per year). In contrast, the incidence of type 2 diabetes tended to decline between 2015 and 2019. It continued to drop initially in 2020 during the pandemic, and then rose to 740 per 100,000 persons in 2021 (556,318 new cases per year). The diabetes type-specific seasonal pattern of previous years has changed during the pandemic years. The incidence of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes was observed to be higher in regions of high socioeconomic deprivation as compared to regions characterised by low socioeconomic deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in the incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021 may possibly be related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The high incidence and the differences by regional socioeconomic deprivation indicate that there is a need for targeted prevention strategies.

Trends in diabetes incidence in Austria 2013-2017

This study aims to quantify whether age and sex groups in Austrian regions are equally affected by the rise of type 2 diabetes. Population-wide medical claims data was obtained for citizens in Austria aged above 50 year, who received antihyperglycemic treatments or underwent HbA1c monitoring between 2012 and 2017. Diabetes incidence was measured using an epidemiological diabetes progression model accounting for patients who discontinued antihyperglycemic therapy; the erratic group. Out of 746,184 patients, 268,680 (140,960 females) discontinued their treatment and/or monitoring for at least one year. Without adjusting for such erratic patients, incidence rates increase from 2013 to 2017 (females: from 0·5% to 1·1%, males: 0·5% to 1·2%), whereas they decrease in all groups after adjustments (females: - 0·3% to - 0·5%, males: - 0·4% to - 0·5%). Higher mortality was observed in the erratic group compared to patients on continued antihyperglycemic therapy (mean difference 12% and 14% for females and males, respectively). In summary, incidence strongly depends on age, sex and place of residency. One out of three patients with diabetes in Austria discontinued antihyperglycemic treatment or glycemic monitoring for at least one year. This newly identified subgroup raises concern regarding adherence and continuous monitoring of diabetes care and demands further evaluation.