Infant deaths in the UK community following successful cardiac surgery: building the evidence base for optimal surveillance, a mixed-methods study

Linkage of National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data to hospital, critical care and mortality national data sets to enable research focused on quality improvement

OBJECTIVES

To link five national data sets (three registries, two administrative) and create longitudinal healthcare trajectories for patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), describing the quality and the summary statistics of the linked data set.

DESIGN

Bespoke linkage of record-level patient identifiers across five national data sets. Generation of spells of care defined as periods of time-overlapping events across the data sets.

SETTING

National Congenital Heart Disease Audit (NCHDA) procedures in public (National Health Service; NHS) hospitals in England and Wales, paediatric and adult intensive care data sets (Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network; PICANet and the Case Mix Programme from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre; ICNARC-CMP), administrative hospital episodes (hospital episode statistics; HES inpatient, outpatient, accident and emergency; A&E) and mortality registry data.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with any CHD procedure recorded in NCHDA between April 2000 and March 2017 from public hospitals.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary: number of linked records, number of unique patients and number of generated spells of care. Secondary: quality and completeness of linkage.

RESULTS

There were 143 862 records in NCHDA relating to 96 041 unique patients. We identified 65 797 linked PICANet patient admissions, 4664 linked ICNARC-CMP admissions and over 6 million linked HES episodes of care (1.1M inpatient, 4.7M outpatient). The linked data set had 4 908 153 spells of care after quality checks, with a median (IQR) of 3.4 (1.8-6.3) spells per patient-year. Where linkage was feasible (in terms of year and centre), 95.6% surgical procedure records were linked to a corresponding HES record, 93.9% paediatric (cardiac) surgery procedure records to a corresponding PICANet admission and 76.8% adult surgery procedure records to a corresponding ICNARC-CMP record.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully linked four national data sets to the core data set of all CHD procedures performed between 2000 and 2017. This will enable a much richer analysis of longitudinal patient journeys and outcomes. We hope that our detailed description of the linkage process will be useful to others looking to link national data sets to address important research priorities.

Health Care Policy and Congenital Heart Disease: 2020 Focus on Our 2030 Future

The congenital heart care community faces a myriad of public health issues that act as barriers toward optimum patient outcomes. In this article, we attempt to define advocacy and policy initiatives meant to spotlight and potentially address these challenges. Issues are organized into the following 3 key facets of our community: patient population, health care delivery, and workforce. We discuss the social determinants of health and health care disparities that affect patients in the community that require the attention of policy makers. Furthermore, we highlight the many needs of the growing adults with congenital heart disease and those with comorbidities, highlighting concerns regarding the inequities in access to cardiac care and the need for multidisciplinary care. We also recognize the problems of transparency in outcomes reporting and the promising application of telehealth. Finally, we highlight the training of providers, measures of productivity, diversity in the workforce, and the importance of patient-family centered organizations in advocating for patients. Although all of these issues remain relevant to many subspecialties in medicine, this article attempts to illustrate the unique needs of this population and highlight ways in which to work together to address important opportunities for change in the cardiac care community and beyond. This article provides a framework for policy and advocacy efforts for the next decade.

Unexpected death in children with severe congenital heart defects in Norway 2004-2016

AIMS

Updated knowledge on the rates and causes of death among children with severe congenital heart defects (CHDs) is needed to further improve treatment and survival. This study investigated nationwide mortality rates in children with severe CHDs with an emphasis on unexpected mortality unrelated to cardiac intervention.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data on all pregnancies and live-born children in Norway from 2004 to 2016 were obtained from national registries, the Oslo University Hospital's Clinical Registry for CHDs and medical records. Among 2359 live-born children with severe CHDs, 234 (10%) died before 2 years of age. Of these, 109 (46%) died in palliative care, 58 (25%) died of causes related to a cardiac intervention and 67 (29%) died unexpectedly and unrelated to a cardiac intervention, either before (n=26) or following (n=41) discharge after a cardiac intervention. Comorbidity (38/67, 57%), persistent low oxygen saturation (SaO₂; <95%; 41/67, 61%), staged surgery (21/41, 51%), residual cardiac defects (22/41, 54%) and infection (36/67, 54%) were frequent in children who died unexpectedly unrelated to an intervention. Two or more of these factors were present in 62 children (93%). The medical reports at hospital discharge lacked information on follow-up in many patients who died unexpectedly.

CONCLUSIONS

The numbers of unexpected deaths unrelated to cardiac intervention in children <2 years of age without comorbidity were low in Norway. However, close follow-up is recommended for infants with comorbidities, persistent low oxygen saturation, staged surgery or residual cardiac defects, particularly when an infection occurs.

Ethnic-specific mortality of infants undergoing congenital heart surgery in England and Wales

PURPOSE

To investigate ethnic differences in mortality for infants with congenital heart defects (CHDs) undergoing cardiac surgery or interventional catheterisation.

DESIGN

Observational study of survival to age 1 year using linked records from routine national paediatric cardiac surgery and intensive care audits. Mortality risk was investigated using multivariable Poisson models with multiple imputation. Predictors included sex, ethnicity, preterm birth, deprivation, comorbidities, prenatal diagnosis, age and weight at surgery, preprocedure deterioration and cardiac diagnosis.

SETTING

All paediatric cardiac surgery centres in England and Wales.

PATIENTS

5350 infants with CHDs born from 2006 to 2009.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Survival at age 1 year.

RESULTS

Mortality was 83.9 (95% CI 76.3 to 92.1) per 1000 infants, with variation by ethnic group. Compared with those of white ethnicity, infants in British Asian (Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi) and 'all other' (Chinese, mixed and other) categories experienced significantly higher mortality by age 1 year (relative risk [RR] 1.52[95% CI 1.19 to 1.95]; 1.62[95% CI 1.20 to 2.20], respectively), specifically during index hospital admission (RR 1.55 [95% CI 1.07 to 2.26]; 1.64 [95% CI 1.05 to 2.57], respectively). Further predictors of mortality included non-cardiac comorbidities, prenatal diagnosis, older age at surgery, preprocedure deterioration and cardiac diagnosis. British Asian infants had higher mortality risk during elective hospital readmission (RR 1.86 [95% CI 1.02 to 3.39]).

CONCLUSIONS

Infants of British Asian and 'all other' non-white ethnicity experienced higher postoperative mortality risk, which was only partly explained by socioeconomic deprivation and access to care. Further investigation of case-mix and timing of risk may provide important insights into potential mechanisms underlying ethnic disparities.

Randomized controlled trials in children's heart surgery in the 21st century: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for evaluating health care interventions, yet are uncommon in children's heart surgery. We conducted a systematic review of clinical trials in paediatric cardiac surgery to evaluate the scope and quality of the current international literature.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, CENTRAL and LILACS, and manually screened retrieved references and systematic reviews to identify all randomized controlled trials reporting the effect of any intervention on the conduct or outcomes of heart surgery in children published in any language since January 2000; secondary publications and those reporting inseparable adult data were excluded. Two reviewers independently screened studies for eligibility and extracted data; the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool was used to assess for potential biases.

RESULTS

We identified 333 trials from 34 countries randomizing 23 902 children. Most were early phase (313, 94.0%), recruiting few patients (median 45, interquartile range 28-82), and only 11 (3.3%) directly evaluated a surgical intervention. One hundred and nine (32.7%) trials calculated a sample size, 52 (15.6%) reported a CONSORT diagram, 51 (15.3%) were publicly registered and 25 (7.5%) had a Data Monitoring Committee. The overall risk of bias was low in 22 (6.6%), high in 69 (20.7%) and unclear in 242 (72.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

The recent literature in children's heart surgery contains few late-phase clinical trials. Most trials did not conform to the accepted standards of reporting, and the overall risk of bias was low in few studies. There is a need for high-quality, multicentre clinical trials to provide a robust evidence base for contemporary paediatric cardiac surgical practice.

Improving risk adjustment in the PRAiS (Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery) model for mortality after paediatric cardiac surgery and improving public understanding of its use in monitoring outcomes

Background

In 2011, we developed a risk model for 30-day mortality after children’s heart surgery. The PRAiS (Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery) model uses data on the procedure performed, diagnosis, age, weight and comorbidity. Our treatment of comorbidity was simplistic because of data quality. Software that implements PRAiS is used by the National Congenital Heart Disease Audit (NCHDA) in its audit work. The use of PRAiS triggered the temporary suspension of surgery at one unit in 2013. The public anger that surrounded this illustrated the need for public resources around outcomes monitoring.

Objectives

(1) To improve the PRAiS risk model by incorporating more information about comorbidities. (2) To develop online resources for the public to help them to understand published mortality data.

Design

Objective 1 The outcome measure was death within 30 days of the start of each surgical episode of care. The analysts worked with an expert panel of clinical and data management representatives. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion of risk factors, development of regression models and assessment of model performance under cross-validation. Performance was measured using the area under the receiving operator characteristic (AUROC) curve and calibration in the cross-validation test sets. The final model was further assessed in a 2014–15 validation data set.Objective 2 We developed draft website material that we iteratively tested through four sets of two workshops (one workshop for parents of children who had undergone heart surgery and one workshop for other interested users). Each workshop recruited new participants. The academic psychologists ran two sets of three experiments to explore further understanding of the web content.

Data

We used pseudonymised NCHDA data from April 2009 to April 2014. We later unexpectedly received a further year of data (2014–15), which became a prospective validation set.

Results

Objective 1The cleaned 2009–14 data comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths. The 2014–15 data contained 4207 episodes, with 97 deaths. The final regression model included four new comorbidity groupings. Under cross-validation, the model had a median AUROC curve of 0.83 (total range 0.82 to 0.83), a median calibration slope of 0.92 (total range 0.64 to 1.25) and a median intercept of –0.23 (range –1.08 to 0.85). In the validation set, the AUROC curve was 0.86 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83 to 0.89], and its calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI –0.45 to 0.67), respectively. We recalibrated the final model on 2009–15 data and updated the PRAiS software.Objective 2We coproduced a website (http://childrensheartsurgery.info/) that provides interactive exploration of the data, two animations and background information. It was launched in June 2016 and was very well received.

Limitations

We needed to use discharge status as a proxy for 30-day life status for the 14% of overseas patients without a NHS number. We did not have sufficient time or resources to extensively test the usability and take-up of the website following its launch.

Conclusions

The project successfully achieved its stated aims. A key theme throughout has been the importance of collaboration and coproduction. In particular for aim 2, we generated a great deal of generalisable learning about how to communicate complex clinical and mathematical information.

Further work

Extending our codevelopment approach to cover many other aspects of quality measurement across congenital heart disease and other specialised NHS services.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Death and Emergency Readmission of Infants Discharged After Interventions for Congenital Heart Disease: A National Study of 7643 Infants to Inform Service Improvement

Background

Improvements in hospital‐based care have reduced early mortality in congenital heart disease. Later adverse outcomes may be reducible by focusing on care at or after discharge. We aimed to identify risk factors for such events within 1 year of discharge after intervention in infancy and, separately, to identify subgroups that might benefit from different forms of intervention.

Methods and Results

Cardiac procedures performed in infants between 2005 and 2010 in England and Wales from the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit were linked to intensive care records. Among 7976 infants, 333 (4.2%) died before discharge. Of 7643 infants discharged alive, 246 (3.2%) died outside the hospital or after an unplanned readmission to intensive care (risk factors were age, weight‐for‐age, cardiac procedure, cardiac diagnosis, congenital anomaly, preprocedural clinical deterioration, prematurity, ethnicity, and duration of initial admission; c‐statistic 0.78 [0.75–0.82]). Of the 7643, 514 (6.7%) died outside the hospital or had an unplanned intensive care readmission (same risk factors but with neurodevelopmental condition and acquired cardiac diagnosis and without preprocedural deterioration; c‐statistic 0.78 [0.75–0.80]). Classification and regression tree analysis were used to identify 6 subgroups stratified by the level (3–24%) and nature of risk for death outside the hospital or unplanned intensive care readmission based on neurodevelopmental condition, cardiac diagnosis, congenital anomaly, and duration of initial admission. An additional 115 patients died after planned intensive care admission (typically following elective surgery).

Conclusions

Adverse outcomes in the year after discharge are of similar magnitude to in‐hospital mortality, warrant service improvements, and are not confined to diagnostic groups currently targeted with enhanced monitoring.