Predictors of nonresponse to intravenous immunoglobulin therapy in Kawasaki disease

Establishment and validation of risk prediction model to predict intravenous immunoglobulin-resistance in Kawasaki disease based on meta-analysis of 15 cohorts

BACKGROUND

Pediatric Kawasaki disease (KD) patients showing resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) are at risk of coronary artery lesions; thus, early prediction of IVIG resistance is particularly important. Herein, we aimed to develop and verify a novel predictive risk model for IVIG resistance in KD based on meta-analyses.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases were searched for cohort studies on the risk factors for IVIG resistance from January 2006 to December 2022. Data were extracted from the screened literature, followed by quality assessment using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. meta-analyses used Stata 17.0 software to extract the risk factors with significant combined effect sizes and combined risk values, followed by logistic regression prediction model construction. The model was prospective validated using data from 1007 pediatric KD cases attending the Children's Hospital of Soochow University. The model's predictive ability was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis(DCA).

RESULTS

Fifteen cohort studies reporting 4273 patients with IVIG resistance were included. The incidence of IVIG resistance was 16.2%. Six risk factors were reported ≥ 3 times with significant results for the combined effect size: male sex, rash, cervical lymphadenopathy, % neutrophils ≥ 80%, Age ≤ 12 months and platelet count ≤ 300 × 109/L. The logistic scoring model had 83.8% specificity, 70.4% sensitivity, and an optimal cut-off value of 23.500.

CONCLUSION

The risk prediction model for IVIG resistance in KD showed a good predictive performance, and pediatricians should pay high attention to these high-risk patients and develop an appropriate individual regimens to prevent coronary complications.

Nutrition-Associated Biomarkers in Predicting Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance and Coronary Artery Lesions in Kawasaki Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Several studies explored the associations of pre-albumin (PA)/albumin (ALB) and ALB-combined indicators (prognostic nutrition index [PNI], albumin-to-globulin ratio [AGR], bilirubin-to-albumin [BAR], and C-reactive protein/albumin ratio [CAR]) with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery lesions (CALs) in Kawasaki disease (KD) patients. However, the results were controversial. A meta-analysis was conducted to reconfirm their associations and predictive performance. Databases of PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane library were searched. The pooled standardized mean difference (SMD) or odds ratios (ORs) assessed the association, while the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) evaluated the predictive power. Ninety-four studies were included. Overall and subgroup meta-analyses demonstrated lower ALB and higher CAR were associated with IVIG resistance (ALB: SMD = -0.61; OR = 0.83; CAR: SMD = 1.47; OR = 1.69) and CALs (ALB: SMD = -0.56; OR = 0.92; CAR: SMD = 0.52). PNI was reduced in IVIG-resistant (SMD = -0.82) and coronary artery aneurysm (SMD = -0.18) patients in subgroup analysis and high PNI predicted the decreased risk of CALs in overall analysis (OR = 0.82). ALB, CAR, and PNI were a good or fair biomarker for differentiating IVIG-resistant (CALs) from IVIG-sensitive (non-CALs) patients (AUC > 0.6 or > 0.7). PA (SMD = -0.72) and BAR (SMD = 1.10) were differential in IVIG-resistant, but not in CAL patients compared with controls. AGR was not associated with CALs (p > 0.05). In conclusion, ALB, CAR, PNI, PA, and BAR may represent promising biomarkers for the prediction of IVIG resistance and CALs in KD patients.

Risk Factors for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Non-responsiveness and Coronary Ectasia in Korean Patients With Kawasaki Disease

We aimed to determine the risk factors for non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and coronary ectasia in Korean children with Kawasaki disease (KD) and compare the efficacy of previously published Japanese and Chinese risk scoring systems in the same cohort. We retrospectively reviewed 459 KD cases diagnosed from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2022. Age (odds ratio [OR]: 0.983; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.968-0.999), change in extremities (OR: 3.308; 95% CI: 1.530-7.151), neutrophils (OR: 1.078; 95% CI: 1.049-1.108), and alanine aminotransferase (OR: 1.002; 95% CI: 1.000-1.004) were identified as independent risk factors for IVIG non-responsiveness, and age (OR: 0.945; 95% CI: 0.902-0.989), C-reactive protein (OR: 1.092; 95% CI: 1.004-1.188), and creatinine kinase (OR: 1.004; 95% CI: 1.001-1.006) were identified as independent risk factors for coronary ectasia. Among previously published risk scoring systems, the Egami (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]: 0.695; 95% CI: 0.651-0.737) for IVIG non-responsiveness and the Tang score (AUC: 0.726; 95% CI: 0.578-0.874) for coronary ectasia showed the highest predictive value for our study cohort.

Clinical features analysis of Kawasaki disease with abdominal symptoms as the first manifestation

To investigate the clinical characteristics of Kawasaki disease (KD) presenting with abdominal manifestation as the first manifestation. Our findings may help improve the cognition of KD with abdominal complications, and avoid misdiagnosis and missed diagnosis. A retrospective analysis was conducted of 1490 KD patients admitted to Shengjing Hospital between January 2019 and March 2022. Clinical characteristics, related factors, and prognosis of KD with abdominal manifestation as first manifestation were analyzed. Based on the presenting symptoms, patients were divided into gastrointestinal symptom group (n = 141), liver dysfunction group (n = 55), and control group (n = 1294). In the gastrointestinal group, diarrhea [100 cases (70.9%)], vomiting [55 cases (39.0%)], and abdominal pain [34 cases (24.1%)] were the most common symptoms at onset. 8 cases (5.7%) were complicated with pseudo-intestinal obstruction, 6 cases (4.3%) with ischemic colitis, 5 cases (3.5%) with pancreatitis, 2 cases (1.4%) with appendicitis, and 1 case (0.7%) with cholecystitis. Comparied to ordinary gastroenteritis caused by infection, gastroenteritis with KD has longer fever duration before treatment, higher WBC, PLT, CRP, AST levels and lower albumin levels. All patients in the liver dysfunction group had elevated transaminases, and 19 patients (34.5%) presented with jaundice. In the gastrointestinal group, the average hospital stay was 10.3 days, and the incidence of IVIG unresponsiveness and coronary artery lesion were 18.4% and 19.9%, respectively, which were significantly higher than that in the control group. In the liver dysfunction group, the average hospital stay (11.18 days), incidence of IVIG unresponsiveness (25.5%), and incidence of coronary artery lesion (29.1%) were significantly higher than that in the control group. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, gastrointestinal involvement, fever duration, ALT, PLT, and CRP were identified as risk factors for CAL, younger age, gastrointestinal involvement and fever duration were risk factors for IVIG unresponsiveness.  Conclusion: KD with gastrointestinal involvement is associated with a higher risk of IVIG unresponsiveness and coronary artery lesion. KD should be considered in the differential diagnosis of children with acute fever, especially those with gastrointestinal involvement and liver dysfunction. What is Known: • Fever duration, PLT, and CRP were identified as risk factors for CAL. Timely diagnosis and application of IVIG treatment can avoid exploratory laparotomy for ileus, appendectomy for misdiagnosed appendicitis, colonoscopy for misdiagnosed inflammatory bowel disease, and reduce the complications of CAL and IVIG unresponsiveness. What is New: • Abdominal symptoms as the first manifestation can be an independent risk factor for CAL and IVIG unresponsiveness. KD should be considered in the differential diagnosis of children with acute fever, especially those with gastrointestinal symptoms or liver dysfunction. • Gastroenteritis in KD group had longer fever duration before treatment, accompanied with higher WBC, PLT, CRP, AST levels and lower albumin levels than those gastroenteritis caused by infection. Therefore, high attention should be paid to the possibility of KD when gastroenteritis accompanied by along fever duration, high WBC, PLT, CRP, AST level or lowalbumin level.

Evaluation of Formosa score and diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a bivariate meta-analysis

Background

In 2016, Lin et al. developed a prediction score of non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) (Lin et al., 2016). Various studies have attempted to validate the Formosa score, but inconsistent results have given us new opportunities and challenges. The aim of this meta-analysis is to explore the role of the Formosa score as a risk score in detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients and then compare the pooled sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano risk scores.

Methods

A comprehensive search of Cochrane, Embase, and PubMed was conducted through 20 December 2021, using key terms relevant to the research question "What are the sensitivities and specificities of the four Asian predicting scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano, in Kawasaki disease patients with IVIG resistance?" The reference lists of the included studies were manually reviewed to identify pertinent references. A random-effects bivariate model was used to estimate the summary of sensitivity and specificity of the tools.

Results

We found 41 relevant studies of the four Asian risk scores that were eligible to analyze for pooled accuracy. Eleven studies involving 5,169 KD patients reported the diagnostic performance of the Formosa score for the risk of IVIG resistance. The overall performance of the Formosa score was as follows: pooled sensitivity, 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.48-0.70]; pooled specificity, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.50-0.68); and area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.62. The Formosa score exhibited the highest sensitivity 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) for detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients among the 21,389 children included in the 41 studies. In terms of specificity estimates, Formosa had the lowest specificity of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.41-0.51).

Conclusion

Patients at high risk for IVIG resistance may receive adjunctive treatment to reduce coronary lesions and thus also cardiovascular morbidity. Among all of the included studies, we found Formosa score to have the best sensitivity (0.76) but unsatisfactory specificity (0.46) for predicting IVIG resistance in Kawasaki disease. In the future, network meta-analysis should also incorporate the accuracy of the new scores after they have undergone a certain degree of validation around the world.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, PROSPERO CRD42022341410.

Serum alanine aminotransferase level and intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in patients with kawasaki disease

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES

Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation is considered a risk factor for resistance to initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). However, serum ALT levels change dramatically during acute KD illness. We tested the hypothesis that risk assessment for initial IVIG resistance based on serum ALT elevation may differ by examination day after KD onset.

METHODS

We analyzed 18,492 population-based patients who developed KD throughout Japan. First, we epidemiologically evaluated the serum ALT variation at 1‒10 days after disease onset. Second, we conducted multivariable logistic regression to determine the association between serum ALT level and initial IVIG resistance according to timing of initial hospital visit by stratifying the patients into an early group (1‒5 days after onset) and a late group (6‒10 days after onset).

RESULTS

Serum ALT rapidly increased after KD onset, peaked at day 4 of illness, and then declined regardless of IVIG responsiveness. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) increased with increasing serum ALT in the early group (adjusted OR [95% CI]: 1.44 [1.25-1.66], 1.94 [1.65-2.28], and 2.22 [1.99-2.48] for serum ALT 50-99, 100-199, and ≥ 200 IU/L, respectively; reference ALT level: 1-49 IU/L). No significant association was observed in the late group.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that risk assessment for initial IVIG resistance based on serum ALT level may only be reliable for patients with KD who visit hospitals during early illness, specifically 1-5 days after disease onset. Key Points Serum alanine aminotransferase level differed markedly according to examination days after Kawasaki disease onset. Serum alanine aminotransferase level declined toward normal range after day 5 of illness regardless of intravenous immunoglobulin responsiveness. Elevated serum alanine aminotransferase level was no longer a significant risk factor for initial intravenous immunoglobulin resistance when measured on delayed hospital visits. Risk assessment for initial intravenous immunoglobulin resistance based on serum alanine aminotransferase level may only be reliable for patients who visit hospitals during early illness, specifically 1-5 days after disease onset.

Establishment and Validation of a Multivariate Predictive Scoring Model for Intravenous Immunoglobulin-Resistant Kawasaki Disease: A Study of Children From Two Centers in China

Background

Early identification of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG)-resistant Kawasaki disease (KD) is important for making a suitable therapeutic strategy for children with KD.

Methods

This study included a training set and an external validation set. The training set included 635 children (588 IVIG-sensitive and 47 IVIG-resistant KD) hospitalized in Wuhan Children’s Hospital, Hubei, China. Univariate analyses and binary logistic regression equation was incorporated to find the associated variables of the IVIG-resistant KD. A scoring model for predicting IVIG-resistant KD was established according to odds ratio (OR) values and receiver operating characteristic curves. The external validation set consisted of 391 children (358 IVIG-sensitive and 33 IVIG-resistant KD) hospitalized in Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China. The predictive ability of the model of IVIG-resistant KD were externally validated by the real clinically diagnosed KD cases.

Results

Fifteen variables in the training set were statistically different between IVIG-sensitive and IVIG-resistant KD children, including rash, duration of fever, peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), percentage of monocytes and percentage of eosinophils, and serum alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin (TB), direct bilirubin, glutamyl transpeptidase, prealbumin, sodium ion, potassium ion and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. According to logistic equation analysis, the final three independent correlates to IVIG-resistant KD were serum TB ≥ 12.8 μmol/L, peripheral blood NLR ≥ 5.0 and peripheral blood PNI ≤ 52.4. According to the OR values, three variables were assigned the points of 2, 2 and 1, respectively. When the score was ≥ 3 points, the sensitivity to predict IVIG-resistant KD was 80.9% and the specificity was 77.6%. In the validation set, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the predictive model of IVIG-resistant KD were 72.7%, 84.9%, and 83.9%, respectively.

Conclusion

A scoring model was constructed to predict IVIG-resistant KD, which would greatly assist pediatricians in the early prediction of IVIG-resistant KD.

Refractory Kawasaki disease: modified methylprednisolone regimen decreases coronary artery dilatation

BACKGROUND

The use of corticosteroids in Kawasaki disease (KD) is still controversial. The aim of this study was to investigate the safety and effectiveness of modified methylprednisolone (mPSL) regimen as an initial treatment for refractory KD.

METHODS

This is a real-world observational study. We identified refractory KD with a self-developed scoring system. Patients were divided into the intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) + mPSL group and the IVIG group. Clinical outcomes and changes in coronary arteries after the treatment during a 12-week period were observed. Propensity-score matching was used to analyze those patients with similar baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Of a total of 168 patients, 104 patients were assigned into the IVIG group and 64 patients into the IVIG + mPSL group. The therapeutic response rate of the IVIG + mPSL group was significantly higher than that of the IVIG group (98.4 vs 76.0%, P < 0.05). The IVIG + mPSL group had a shorter duration of fever and a higher rate of C-reactive protein decline than the IVIG group (1.17 ± 0.64 vs 1.81 ± 1.16 days; 88.1 vs 83.5%; P < 0.05). The luminal diameter and Z-score of the left circumflex coronary artery (LCX) were significantly smaller and lower in the IVIG + mPSL group than that in the IVIG group at weeks 2 and 12.

CONCLUSIONS

Modified mPSL regimen has minimal side effects. It might improve the initial response to IVIG and decrease the dilation of LCX for refractory KD.

IMPACT

Modified mPSL regimen (2-4 mg/kg/day, divided into 2-3 doses for 3-5 days, then 1 mg/kg/day, once a day for 3-5 days, then oral prednisone was tapered over 3-5 weeks in 5-7 days steps) as an intensive initial treatment can decrease LCX dilation in high-risk IVIG-resistant KD patients. Our self-developed scoring system has been proven validated and can be used to identify high-risk IVIG-resistant KD patients in North China. The present study provides an alternative therapeutic regimen for high-risk refractory KD patients.

High-Concentration Intravenous Immunoglobulin May Influence the Course of Fever and Rate of Reported Treatment Resistance in Children With Kawasaki Disease: A Single-Center Retrospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) is defined as persistent or recrudescent fever ≥36 hours after IVIG infusion. We have experienced an increase in IVIG resistance in patients with KD since the substitution of 10% IVIG for 5% IVIG. This study aimed to determine the independent association between increased IVIG resistance and 10% IVIG therapy.

METHODS

Medical records of pediatric patients with KD were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical and laboratory characteristics were compared between patients receiving 5% IVIG therapy and those receiving 10% IVIG therapy. Between IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant patients, a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the independent factors for IVIG resistance.

RESULTS

A total of 119 patients were included in this study: 81 (68.1%) and 38 (31.9%) patients received 5% and 10% IVIG therapy, respectively. IVIG resistance was identified in 34 (28.6%) patients: 44.7% of patients receiving 10% IVIG therapy and 21.0% of patients receiving 5% IVIG therapy (p = 0.008). The clinical manifestations and outcomes were comparable between patients who received 5% IVIG therapy and those who received 10% IVIG therapy. IVIG resistance was significantly associated with fewer fever days at IVIG administration (p = 0.032), a higher percentage of neutrophils (p = 0.013), and 10% IVIG treatment (p = 0.004) in the multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

10% IVIG therapy was significantly associated with increased reporting of IVIG resistance. However, the increase in patients with fever patterns consistent with IVIG resistance seemed to represent adverse febrile reactions resulting from using high-concentration IVIG rather than increased severity of KD.

Predictive value of Albumin-Bilirubin grade for intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in a large cohort of patients with Kawasaki disease: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance prediction is one of the primary clinical issues and study hotspots in KD. This study aimed to prospectively investigate the value of albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI) in predicting IVIG resistance in KD and to assess whether ALBI has more predictive value or accuracy than either ALB or TBil alone in predicting IVIG resistance.

METHODS

A total of 823 patients with KD were prospectively enrolled. The clinical and laboratory data were compared between the IVIG-response group (n = 708) and the IVIG-resistance group (n = 115). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors for IVIG resistance. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was applied to assess the validity of ALBI, ALB, and TBil in predicting IVIG resistance.

RESULTS

ALBI was significantly higher in patients with IVIG resistance and was identified as an independent risk factor for IVIG resistance in KD. The parameter of ALBI ≥ - 2.57 (AUC: 0.705, 95 %CI: 0.672-0.736), ALB ≤ 33.0 g/L (AUC: 0.659, 95 %CI: 0.626-0.692), and TBil ≥ 16.0µmol/L (AUC: 0.626, 95 %CI: 0.592-0.659), produced a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 0.617, 0.657, 0.226 and 0.914; 0.374, 0.850, 0.289 and 0.893; 0.269, 0.941, 0.425 and 0.888, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher ALBI was an independent risk factor for IVIG resistance in KD. It yielded better predictive ability than ALB and TBil alone for initial IVIG resistance.

Is there an association between intravenous immunoglobulin resistance and coronary artery lesion in Kawasaki disease?-Current evidence based on a meta-analysis

Background

Coronary artery lesion (CAL) caused by Kawasaki disease (KD) is a leading cause of acquired heart disease in children. Initial treatment of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) can reduce the incidence of CAL. Although most of the current studies have shown a certain correlation between CAL and IVIG resistance, the conclusions are not completely consistent. Thus, we performed this meta-analysis to evaluate the association between IVIG resistance and CAL in KD.

Methods

PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure through April 21, 2020 were searched to detect relevant studies. Data analysis was performed with STATA 15.1.

Results

A total of 53 relevant studies were eligible to this analysis, including 30312 KD patients, of which 4750 were IVIG resistance and 25562 were responders. There was a significant difference found between IVIG resistance and IVIG response groups in the incidence of CAL (P < 0.001, odds ratio (OR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) (3.18, 4.75)). The heterogeneity test results showed that the I² value was 74.8%. The meta-regression analysis showed that the study regions might be the sources of heterogeneity. The subgroup analysis suggested that the incidence of CAL in the IVIG resistance group was still higher than that in the IVIG response group under different regions, IVIG resistance diagnostic criteria, CAL diagnostic criteria, and study types. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis did not find any significant impact from every single study.

Conclusions

This is the first meta-analysis to reveal the incidence of CAL was associated with IVIG resistance in KD patients. Further well-designed studies with uniform criteria are needed to evaluate the incidence of CAL in IVIG resistant patients.

Determination of the Relationship Between Kobayashi, Sano, and Egami Criteria and Prevalence of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance and Coronary Artery Aneurysm in Iranian Children with Kawasaki Disease

Introduction

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis that occurs mostly in children under five years old. Kawasaki affects the middle-size arteries, especially the coronary arteries. Therefore, without adequate treatment, it may cause coronary artery aneurysm in 25% of patients. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between Kobayashi, Sano, and Egami criterions with coronary artery aneurysm in KD patients during the last ten years and to identify risk factors in patients with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG)-resistant and coronary artery aneurysms.

Methodology

Medical records of 363 Kawasaki patients referred during 2008–2017 were reviewed. Patients’ demographic data and Kobayashi, Sano, and Egami scores of each patient were calculated. Based on echocardiographic findings, cases of coronary artery aneurysm were determined. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and the accuracy of each criterion were determined to predicting IVIG resistance and detect coronary artery aneurysm.

Results

There was a slight relationship between IVIG-resistance in Kawasaki children and its prediction based on the Kobayashi risk score, but no relationship was found between the Egami and Sano criteria. Sixty-three patients (17.4%) had coronary artery lesions (CALs) on time of diagnosis. There were no statistically significant differences between gender and mean age of children with and without CALs. Also, there was no significant relationship between coronary artery aneurysm in Kawasaki children and its prediction based on the above three risk factors. The area under the ROC-curve of all three risk measures of Kobayashi, Egami, and Sano indicated that all three criteria were not useful in predicting CALs.

Conclusion

Despite the low accuracy of the three above criteria to predictive of patients with IVIG resistance, it seems that the variables of age, duration of fever, and C-reactive protein (CRP) are more useful than other variables and may be utilized to evaluate patients by establishing a more appropriate cut-off point.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a biomarker for predicting the intravenous immunoglobulin-resistant Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

In recent years, many studies focused on the association between the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the risk of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG)-resistant Kawasaki disease (rKD), with inconsistent results. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the role of NLR as a biomarker in detecting rKD.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure through May 18th, 2019. Meta-disc 1.4 and STATA 15.1 were used to perform this metaanalysis in a fixed/random-effect model.

RESULTS

A total of 7 relevant studies were eligible to analyze pooled accuracy. The overall performance of NLR detection was: pooled sensitivity, 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 - 0.70); pooled specificity, 0.71 (95%CI, 0.69 - 0.73); and area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves value (SROC), 0.7956. The meta-regression analysis showed that the type of samples was the sources of heterogeneity. The subgroup analysis suggested that NLR detection after the initial treatment of IVIG had the largest area under curve of SROC in all the subgroups: pooled sensitivity, 0.58 (95%CI, 0.53 - 0.63); pooled specificity, 0.77 (95%CI, 0.75 - 0.79); and SROC, 0.8440.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first meta-analysis demonstrated that NLR might be a biomarker for detecting rKD, especially NLR value after the initial treatment of IVIG. More well-designed researches need to be done to launch the application of NLR for predicting rKD in the clinic.

Risk Factors of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Children With Kawasaki Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Case-Control Studies

Previous studies have shown that children with Kawasaki disease (KD) who fail to respond to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy are at higher risk of developing coronary artery lesions (CALs). We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to uncover the risk factors associated with IVIG resistance in children with KD. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched up to 31st October 2019, and 23 case-control studies were finally eligible, enrolling 2,053 patients of IVIG resistance and 16,635 patients of IVIG sensitivity. Potential factors were comprehensively analyzed by using stata15 software with a standard meta-analysis procedure and consequently found that in addition to patients with polymorphous rash or swelling of extremities symptoms had a tendency to be non-responders, IVIG resistance was more likely to occur in patients with severe anemia, hypoalbuminemia, decreased baseline platelet count, and elevated levels of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), total bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and neutrophils percentage. Particularly, male sex, hyponatraemia, increased aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were confirmed as the risk factors favor IVIG resistance in Mongoloids from Asia countries, but not in Caucasians from non-Asia regions. In summary, we report several risk factors relevant to IVIG resistance in children with KD, which may provide guidance for the prediction of IVIG resistance. But a proposing of an optimal prediction system with high specificity and sensitivity needs further studies because of confounding factors.

Prediction for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance Combining Genetic Risk Loci Identified From Next Generation Sequencing and Laboratory Data in Kawasaki Disease

Background: Kawasaki disease (KD) is the most common cause of acquired heart disease. A proportion of patients were resistant to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), the primary treatment of KD, and the mechanism of IVIG resistance remains unclear. The accuracy of current models predictive of IVIG resistance is insufficient and doesn't meet the clinical expectations. Objectives: To develop a scoring model predicting IVIG resistance of patients with KD. Methods: We recruited 330 KD patients (50 IVIG non-responders, 280 IVIG responders) and 105 healthy children to explore the susceptibility loci of IVIG resistance in Kawasaki disease. A next generation sequencing technology that focused on 4 immune-related pathways and 472 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was performed. An R package SNPassoc was used to identify the risk loci, and student's t-test was used to identify risk factors associated with IVIG resistance. A random forest-based scoring model of IVIG resistance was built based on the identified specific SNP loci with the laboratory data. Results: A total of 544 significant risk loci were found associated with IVIG resistance, including 27 previous published SNPs. Laboratory test variables, including erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), platelet (PLT), and C reactive protein, were found significantly different between IVIG responders and non-responders. A scoring model was built using the top 9 SNPs and clinical features achieving an area under the ROC curve of 0.974. Conclusions: It is the first study that focused on immune system in KD using high-throughput sequencing technology. Our findings provided a prediction of the IVIG resistance by integrating the genotype and clinical variables. It also suggested a new perspective on the pathogenesis of IVIG resistance.

A novel model for predicting non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulins in Kawasaki disease: The Singapore experience

AIM

We aimed to assess the utility of four published risk-scoring methods in predicting intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) non-responsiveness in Kawasaki disease (KD) patients from Singapore and develop a new predictive model.

METHODS

We reviewed the medical records of 215 KD children. The performance of existing scoring methods in identifying non-responsive cases based on sensitivities (SN) and specificities (SP) was evaluated in 122 Singaporean Chinese. From our dataset, a model involving six predictors was built.

RESULTS

The following respective SN (%) and SP (%) were obtained: Egami: 26%, 68%; Kobayashi: 21%, 62%; Sano: 13%, 86% and Fukunishi: 46%, 71%. These results indicated that the existing scoring methods performed poorly compared to those reported in their respective original publications, which ranged between 68 and 87%. The new predictive model was derived with an improved SN (80%) and SP (80%).

CONCLUSIONS

Currently available risk-scoring methods have less applicability in the Singaporean Chinese population. The proposed new risk-scoring predictive model derived based on data from Chinese cohort demonstrated much better SN and SP.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Intravenous Immunoglobulin-Resistance in Infants Under 12-Months Old With Kawasaki Disease

Objective: We evaluated the ability of peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to predict the intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in Kawasaki disease (KD) patients under 1-year of age. Methods: A total of 92 KD patients under the age of 1-year and who were hospitalized in Peking University First Hospital from June 2007 to August 2016 were recruited in this study. The clinical and laboratory data were analyzed to see if peripheral blood NLR was useful for predicting the IVIG-resistance in KD. Results: Totally 81 out of 92 patients were IVIG responders while 11 resistant to IVIG, with no significant difference in age, gender, ratio of the number of the incomplete to the number of complete KD, and the number of patients with coronary artery lesion between two groups (p > 0.05). Peripheral blood NLR was increased significantly in IVIG-resistant children compared to the IVIG responders [2.6 (interquartile range: 1.4, 3.8) vs. 1.7 (interquartile range: 0.9, 2.3), p = 0.039]. A cut-off value of NLR of 2.51 in KD patients younger than 1-year old yielded a sensitivity of 0.545 and specificity of 0.840, respectively, in the prediction of IVIG resistance. An area under the curve of 0.692 (95% confidence interval 0.526-0.859, p = 0.039) was determined. Conclusions: The peripheral blood NLR ≥ 2.51 is useful to predict the IVIG resistance in KD patients younger than 1-year old.

Verification of Current Risk Scores for Kawasaki Disease in Korean Children

The purpose of this study was to evaluate and assess the compatibility of current risk scoring systems from Japan that were developed to predict intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). The authors previously investigated another prediction model for patients with refractory KD in Korea. A retrospective study involving 350 patients with KD who were admitted between January 2014 and December 2015 was performed. Patients younger than 2 years were excluded for the propensity score matching in this study. Patients were classified into IVIG responders and IVIG resistance groups. The well-known Harada, Kobayashi, and Egami risk scores were calculated for each patient, and the proportion of high-risk patients was compared between the two groups for each risk score. Logistic regression analysis revealed that platelets, C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, and aspartate aminotransferase levels were independent predictors of IVIG resistance. Multivariate analysis suggested that platelets and CRP were risk factors. Risk-scoring systems from Japan have good specificity but low sensitivity. Among the three risk scoring systems, the Kobayashi risk score demonstrated significant differences between the IVIG resistance and IVIG responder groups in Korean patients with KD. It is very important to identify IVIG-resistant patients to protect them from ongoing coronary arterial lesion(s); therefore, early prediction and timely optimal additional treatment is of significant benefit. It would be helpful to construct a highly sensitive, exclusive scoring system for Korean patients with KD.

Relationship between vitamin D levels and intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease

Purpose

Vitamin D is associated with various pathological conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and cancer. We investigated the relationship between vitamin D and Kawasaki disease (KD).

Methods

We performed a retrospective review of the medical records of patients with KD between February 2013 and March 2016 in Daegu Fatima Hospital. Study participants were grouped according to vitamin D serum concentration. Group 1 included patients with 25(OH)-vitamin D ≥20 ng/mL. Group 2 included patients with 25(OH)-vitamin D <20 ng/mL. We analyzed the clinical characteristics and laboratory data of the 2 groups.

Results

Of the 91 patients, 52 were included in group 1, and 39 in group 2. Group 1 patients had significantly higher levels of calcium, phosphate, albumin and sodium than group 2 patients did. There were no differences in clinical characteristics, but the proportion of patients with polymorphic rash was significantly higher in group 2. Resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin was more frequent in group 2 (P=0.023). No significant difference in the incidence of coronary artery complications was observed.

Conclusion

Low vitamin D levels are associated with resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin therapy in KD. Vitamin D deficiency might be a risk factor for immunoglobulin resistance in KD.

Non-Responders to Intravenous Immunoglobulin and Coronary Artery Dilatation in Kawasaki Disease: Predictive Parameters in Korean Children

Background and Objectives

In Kawasaki disease (KD), high dose intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) significantly lowers the coronary complications. However, some patients either do not respond to initial therapy or develop coronary complications. We aimed to identify the predictive factors for unresponsiveness to initial IVIG therapy and coronary artery dilatation (CAD; defined by Z-score≥2.5) in the acute phase and convalescent phase.

Subjects and Methods

A retrospective review was conducted of 703 patients with KD, admitted to Gachon University Gil Medical Center between January 2005 and June 2013. The patients were divided into two groups—IVIG responders vs. non-responders—based on the IVIG treatments, and presence of fever after treatment. Further, these groups were divided into two subgroups based on their CAD.

Results

Among the 703 patients with KD, the rate of non-responders to initial IVIG was 16.8%. Serum total bilirubin, platelet count, and neutrophil proportion were independent predictive parameters of unresponsiveness (p<0.05). CAD was found in 234 patients (33.3%) in the acute phase, and in 32 patients (4.6%) in the convalescent phase. Male gender, fever duration, serum C-reactive protein, and white blood cell count were related to CAD (p<0.05). CAD was detected more frequently in non-responders than in the responders (47.5% vs. 31.5%, p=0.001). Kobayashi, Egami, and Sano scoring systems applied to our study population reflected low sensitivities (28.0-33.9%).

Conclusion

Several independent parameters were related to unresponsiveness to the initial IVIG or CAD. These parameters might be helpful in establishing more focused and careful monitoring of high-risk KD patients in Korea.

Meta-analysis of factors predicting resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin treatment in patients with Kawasaki disease

Purpose

Studies have been conducted to identify predictive factors of resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) for Kawasaki disease (KD). However, the results are conflicting. This study aimed to identify laboratory factors predictive of resistance to high-dose IVIG for KD by performing meta-analysis of available studies using statistical techniques.

Methods

All relevant scientific publications from 2006 to 2014 were identified through PubMed searches. For studies in English on KD and IVIG resistance, predictive factors were included. A meta-analysis was performed that calculated the effect size of various laboratory parameters as predictive factors for IVIG-resistant KD.

Results

Twelve studies comprising 2,745 patients were included. Meta-analysis demonstrated significant effect sizes for several laboratory parameters: polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMNs) 0.698 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.469–0.926), C-reactive protein (CRP) 0.375 (95% CI, 0.086–0.663), pro-brain natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP) 0.561 (95% CI, 0.261–0.861), total bilirubin 0.859 (95% CI, 0.582–1.136), alanine aminotransferase (AST) 0.503 (95% CI, 0.313–0.693), aspartate aminotransferase (ALT) 0.436 (95% CI, 0.275–0.597), albumin 0.427 (95% CI, –0.657 to –0.198), and sodium 0.604 (95% CI, –0.839 to –0.370). Particularly, total bilirubin, PMN, sodium, pro-BNP, and AST, in descending numerical order, demonstrated more than a medium effect size.

Conclusion

Based on the results of this study, laboratory predictive factors for IVIG-resistant KD included higher total bilirubin, PMN, pro-BNP, AST, ALT, and CRP, and lower sodium and albumin. The presence of several of these predictive factors should alert clinicians to the increased likelihood that the patient may not respond adequately to initial IVIG therapy.

Use of corticosteroids during acute phase of Kawasaki disease

In spite of initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment, a significant number of patients are unresponsive to it and are at a higher risk for coronary artery lesions. Corticosteroids have been used as a secondary drug or used in combination with IVIG. Three options of using corticosteroids for the treatment of patients during the acute phase of Kawasaki disease, have been considered. The first is their use exclusively for patients unresponsive to IVIG treatment. The second is their use in combination with IVIG as the routine first line therapy for all patients. The last is the use in the combination as the first line therapy for selected patients at a high risk being unresponsive to initial IVIG. However, it is uncertain that the corticosteroids as the second line treatment are better than the additional IVIG in patients unresponsive to initial IVIG. The combination of corticosteroids and IVIG as the routine first line therapy also have not enough evidences. The last option of using corticosteroids - the combination of corticosteroids and IVIG in patients at high risk of unresponsiveness, is a properly reasonable treatment strategy. However, there have been no globally standardized predictive models for the unresponsiveness to initial IVIG treatment. Therefore, future investigations to determine the best predictive model are necessary.

Intravenous immunoglobulin, pharmacogenomics, and Kawasaki disease

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis of unknown etiology and it is therefore worth examining the multifactorial interaction of genes and environmental factors. Targeted genetic association and genome-wide association studies have helped to provide a better understanding of KD from infection to the immune-related response. Findings in the past decade have contributed to a major breakthrough in the genetics of KD, with the identification of several genomic regions linked to the pathogenesis of KD, including ITPKC, CD40, BLK, and FCGR2A. This review focuses on the factors associated with the genetic polymorphisms of KD and the pharmacogenomics of the response to treatment in patients with intravenous immunoglobulin resistance.