Another oral antiviral treatment, but still far away from hepatitis B virus cure

A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT).

METHODS

Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.

Comparison of kidney function decline between chronic hepatitis B patients with or without antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Kidney function can deteriorate in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We compared the risk of kidney function decline between untreated and treated CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 1061 untreated CHB patients and 366 tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), 190 besifovir dipivoxil maleate (BSV), and 2029 entecavir (ETV) users. The primary outcome was kidney function decline, a ≥ one-stage increase in chronic kidney disease for ≥3 consecutive months.

RESULTS

The incidence and risk of kidney function decline were significantly higher in the 1:1 propensity score matched treated group (588 pairs) than in the untreated (2.7 per 1000 person-years [PYs] vs. 1.3 per 1000 PYs, adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.29, all p < 0.001). The matched TAF group (222 pairs) showed a similar risk for the primary outcome (aHR = 1.89, p = 0.107) despite a significantly higher incidence thereof, compared to the untreated (3.9 vs. 1.9 per 1000 PYs, p = 0.042). The matched BSV and untreated groups (107 pairs) showed no significant differences in the incidence and risk. However, ETV users (541 pairs) carried a significantly higher outcome incidence and risk than the matched untreated (3.6 vs. 1.1 per 1000 PYs, aHR = 1.05, all p < 0.001). Compared to each matched untreated group, changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate over time were greater in the ETV group (p = 0.010), despite being similar in the TAF (p = 0.073) and BSV groups (p = 0.926).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with untreated patients, TAF or BSV users showed similar risk, whereas ETV users showed a higher risk of kidney function decline.

ALT Is Not Associated With Achieving Subcirrhotic Liver Stiffness and HCC During Entecavir Therapy in HBV-Related Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We investigated whether baseline and on-treatment alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels during entecavir (ETV) therapy are associated with achieving subcirrhotic liver stiffness (LS) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 347 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, who started ETV between 2006 and 2011 and were followed up for >5 years without developing HCC. The study outcomes were achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV, and risk of HCC development beyond 5 years of ETV. Subcirrhotic LS was defined as <12 kPa by transient elastography.

RESULTS

After 5 years of ETV, 227 (65.4%) patients achieved subcirrhotic LS. During a median follow-up of 9.2 years, 49 (14.1%) patients developed HCC beyond 5 years of ETV. ALT levels at baseline, at 1 year of ETV therapy, and 5 years of ETV therapy were not associated with the probability of achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV therapy or risk of HCC development beyond 5 years of ETV therapy (all P > .05). Patients achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV therapy had significantly lower risk of HCC development than those who did not (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.64; P = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline and on-treatment ALT levels were not associated with achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV therapy or with risk of HCC development beyond 5 years of ETV therapy in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis. Achieving subcirrhotic LS at 5 years of ETV therapy was independently associated with lower risk of HCC development beyond 5 years of ETV therapy.

Identification and Characterization of Besifovir-Resistant Hepatitis B Virus Isolated from a Chronic Hepatitis B Patient

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is known to cause severe liver diseases such as acute or chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is a major health problem with nearly 300 million individuals infected worldwide. Currently, nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) and interferon alpha are clinically approved treatments for HBV infection. NAs are potent antiviral agents that bind to HBV polymerase and block viral reverse transcription and replication. Besifovir dipivoxil maleate (BSV) is a newly developed NA against HBV in the form of acyclic nucleotide phosphonate that is available for oral administration similar to adefovir and tenofovir. Until now, resistance to BSV treatment has not been reported. In this study, we found a CHB patient who showed viral breakthrough after long-term treatment with BSV. The isolated HBV DNA from patient’s serum were cloned into the replication-competent HBV 1.2 mer and the sequence of reverse transcriptase (RT) domain of HBV polymerase were analyzed. We also examined the drug susceptibility of generated clones in vitro. Several mutations were identified in HBV RT domain. A particular mutant harboring ten RT mutations showed resistance to BSV treatment in vitro. The ten mutations include rtV23I (I), rtH55R (R), rtY124H (H), rtD134E (E), rtN139K (K), rtL180M (M), rtM204V (V), rtQ267L (L), rtL269I (I) and rtL336M (M). To further identify the responsible mutations for BSV resistance, we performed in vitro drug susceptibility assay on several artificial clones. As a result, our study revealed that rtL180M (M) and rtM204V (V) mutations, already known as lamivudine-resistant mutations, confer resistance to BSV in the CHB patient.

Association of Physical Activity with the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B

Simple Summary

Although viral replication in patients with a chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is effectively suppressed by potent antiviral therapy such as entecavir or tenofovir, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in CHB patients cannot be totally eliminated. Thus, control of modifiable risk factors for HCC development such as lifestyle modification is important to minimize the HCC risk. In this study, we analyzed a nationwide population-based cohort to evaluate whether there is a significant association between physical activity and development of HCC in CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir. Results in this study suggest that physical activity was significantly associated with a lower risk of HCC development in CHB patients treated with potent antiviral therapy. Increasing physical activity can have beneficial outcomes on HCC development in CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir.

Abstract

Background and Aims: In the general population, previous studies reported that physical activity was associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. However, it is unclear whether physical activity is associated with risk of HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to elucidate the association between physical activity and risk of HCC development in CHB patients. Methods: This nationwide cohort study involved treatment-naive patients with CHB (n = 9727) who started treatment with entecavir or tenofovir and answered self-reported questionnaires between January 2012 and December 2017, using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. The primary endpoint was development of HCC. Multivariable Cox regression and competing risk analyses were used. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.1 years, cumulative HCC incidence rates were 8.3%. There was an inverse association between physical activity and the risk of HCC (p < 0.001). Patients with 1000–1500 metabolic equivalent task (MET)-min/week, compared to those without physical activity, showed a significantly lower risk of HCC in both patients without cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.66, p = 0.02) and patients with cirrhosis (aHR 0.61, p = 0.02). In patients who were younger (<60), male, without diabetes, and with high BMI, amounts of physical activity of 1000–1500 MET-min/week showed an inverse association with the risk of HCC (aHR 0.65, 0.63, 0.65, and 0.64, respectively, all p < 0.05). Conclusion: Physical activity was significantly associated with a low risk of HCC in CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir.