Areas of spatial overlap between common bottlenose dolphin, recreational boating, and small-scale fishery: management insights from modelling exercises

Background

Sustainable management requires spatial mapping of both species distribution and human activities to identify potential risk of conflict. The common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is a priority species of the European Union Habitat Directive, thus, to promote its conservation, the understanding of habitat use and distribution, as well as the identification and spatial trend of the human activities which may directly affect populations traits, is pivotal.

Methods

A MaxEnt modeling approach was applied to predict the seasonal (from April to September) habitat use of a small population of bottlenose dolphins in the north-western Sardinia (Mediterranean Sea) in relation to environmental variables and the likelihoods of boat and fishing net presence. Then, the overlapping areas between dolphin, fishing net and boat presence were identified to provide insights for the marine spatial management of this area.

Results

Three of the main factors influencing the seasonal distribution of bottlenose dolphins in the area are directly (boating and fishing) or indirectly (ocean warming) related to human activities. Furthermore, almost half of the most suitable area for dolphins overlapped with areas used by fishing and boating. Finally, relying on fishing distribution models, we also shed light on the potential impact of fishing on the Posidonia oceanica beds, a protected habitat, which received higher fishing efforts than other habitat types.

Discussion

Modelling the spatial patterns of anthropogenic activities was fundamental to understand the ecological impacts both on cetacean habitat use and protected habitats. A greater research effort is suggested to detect potential changes in dolphin habitat suitability, also in relation to ocean warming, to assess dolphin bycatch and the status of target fish species, and to evaluate sensitive habitats conditions, such as the Posidonia oceanica meadow.

Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable

Marine heatwaves cause widespread environmental, biological, and socio-economic impacts, placing them at the forefront of 21st-century management challenges. However, heatwaves vary in intensity and evolution, and a paucity of information on how this variability impacts marine species limits our ability to proactively manage for these extreme events. Here, we model the effects of four recent heatwaves (2014, 2015, 2019, 2020) in the Northeastern Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predator species of ecological, cultural, and commercial importance. Predicted responses were highly variable across species and heatwaves, ranging from near total loss of habitat to a two-fold increase. Heatwaves rapidly altered political bio-geographies, with up to 10% of predicted habitat across all species shifting jurisdictions during individual heatwaves. The variability in predicted responses across species and heatwaves portends the need for novel management solutions that can rapidly respond to extreme climate events. As proof-of-concept, we developed an operational dynamic ocean management tool that predicts predator distributions and responses to extreme conditions in near real-time.

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface-level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface- and shallow-foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator-prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface-level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species- and community-level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub-mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

The influence of prey availability on behavioral decisions and reproductive success of a central-place forager during lactation

Marine central-place foragers are increasingly faced with altered prey landscapes, necessitating predictions of the impact of such changes on behavior, reproductive success, and population dynamics. We used state-dependent behavioral life history theory implemented via Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) to explore the influence of changes in prey distribution and energy gain from foraging on the behavior and reproductive success of a central place forager during lactation. Our work is motivated by northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) because of the ongoing population decline of the Eastern Pacific stock and projected declines in biomass of walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), a key fur seal prey species in the eastern Bering Sea. We also explored how changes in female and pup metabolic rates, body size, and lactation duration affected model output to provide insight into traits that might experience selective pressure in response to reductions in prey availability. Simulated females adopted a central-place foraging strategy after an initial extended period spent on land (4.7-8.3 days). Trip durations increased as the high energy prey patch moved farther from land or when the energy gain from foraging decreased. Increases in trip duration adversely affected pup growth rates and wean mass despite attempts to compensate by increasing land durations. Metabolic rate changes had the largest impacts on pup wean mass, with reductions in a pup's metabolic rate allowing females to successfully forage at distances of 600+ km from land for up to 15+ days. Our results indicate that without physiological adaptations, a rookery is unlikely to be viable if the primary foraging grounds are 400 km or farther from the rookery. To achieve pup growth rates characteristic of a population experiencing rapid growth, model results indicate the primary foraging grounds need to be <150 km from the rookery.

Seascape genomics of common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) reveals adaptive diversity linked to regional and local oceanography

Background

High levels of standing genomic variation in wide-ranging marine species may enhance prospects for their long-term persistence. Patterns of connectivity and adaptation in such species are often thought to be influenced by spatial factors, environmental heterogeneity, and oceanographic and geomorphological features. Population-level studies that analytically integrate genome-wide data with environmental information (i.e., seascape genomics) have the potential to inform the spatial distribution of adaptive diversity in wide-ranging marine species, such as many marine mammals. We assessed genotype-environment associations (GEAs) in 214 common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) along > 3000 km of the southern coast of Australia.

Results

We identified 747 candidate adaptive SNPs out of a filtered panel of 17,327 SNPs, and five putatively locally-adapted populations with high levels of standing genomic variation were disclosed along environmentally heterogeneous coasts. Current velocity, sea surface temperature, salinity, and primary productivity were the key environmental variables associated with genomic variation. These environmental variables are in turn related to three main oceanographic phenomena that are likely affecting the dispersal of common dolphins: (1) regional oceanographic circulation, (2) localised and seasonal upwellings, and (3) seasonal on-shelf circulation in protected coastal habitats. Signals of selection at exonic gene regions suggest that adaptive divergence is related to important metabolic traits.

Conclusion

To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first seascape genomics study for common dolphins (genus Delphinus). Information from the associations between populations and their environment can assist population management in forecasting the adaptive capacity of common dolphins to climate change and other anthropogenic impacts.

Delayed response to environmental conditions and infra-seasonal dynamics of the short-beaked common dolphin distribution

Cetaceans adjust their distribution and abundance to encountered conditions across years and seasons, but we poorly understand such small-scale changes for many species, especially in winter. Crucial challenges confront some populations during this season, such as the high levels of fisheries-induced mortality faced by the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in the Northeast Atlantic shelves. For such species, understanding the winter fine-scale dynamics is crucial. We aimed to identify the dolphin distribution drivers during the winters of 2020 and 2021, with a focus on determining the lag between changes in oceanographic conditions and dolphin distribution. The changes were related to temporal delays specific to the nature and cascading effects that oceanographic processes had on the trophic chain. By determining the most important conditions and lags to dolphin distributions, we shed light on the poorly understood intrusions of dolphins within coastal waters during winter: they displayed a strong preference for the coastal-shelf waters front and extensively followed its spatial variations, with their overall densities increasing over the period and peaking in March-April. The results presented here provide invaluable information on the winter distribution dynamics and should inform management decisions to help reduce the unsustainable mortalities of this species in the by-catch of fisheries.

Seascape Genetics of the Atlantic Spotted Dolphin (Stenella frontalis) Based on Mitochondrial DNA

The Atlantic spotted dolphin (Stenella frontalis) is endemic to tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Throughout its distribution, both geographic distance and environmental variation may contribute to population structure of the species. In this study, we follow a seascape genetics approach to investigate population differentiation of Atlantic spotted dolphins based on a large worldwide dataset and the relationship with marine environmental variables. The results revealed that the Atlantic spotted dolphin exhibits population genetic structure across its distribution based on mitochondrial DNA control region (mtDNA-CR) data. Analyses based on the contemporary landscape suggested, at both the individual and population level, that the population genetic structure is consistent with the isolation-by-distance model. However, because geography and environmental matrices were correlated, and because in some, but not all analyses, we found a significant effect for the environment, we cannot rule out the addition contribution of environmental factors in structuring genetic variation. Future analyses based on nuclear data are needed to evaluate whether local processes, such as social structure and some level of philopatry within populations, may be contributing to the associations among genetic structure, geographic, and environmental distance.

Cetacean presence and distribution in the central Mediterranean Sea and potential risks deriving from plastic pollution

The Sardinian and Sicilian Channels are considered hotspots of biodiversity and key ecological passages between Mediterranean sub-basins, but with significant knowledge gaps about marine mammal presence and potential threats they face. Using data collected between 2013 and 2019 along fixed transects, inter and intra-annual cetacean index of abundance was assessed. Habitat suitability, seasonal hot spots, and risk exposure for plastic were performed using the Kernel analysis and the Biomod2 R-package. 661 sightings of 8 cetacean species were recorded, with bottlenose and striped dolphins as the most sighted species. The north-eastern pelagic sector, the coastal waters and areas near ridges resulted the most suitable habitats for these species. The risk analysis identified the Tunis, Palermo, and Castellammare gulfs and the Egadi Island as areas of particular risk of plastic exposure. The study represents a great improvement for cetacean knowledge in this region and contributes to the development of effective conservation strategies.

Bright spots as climate-smart marine spatial planning tools for conservation and blue growth

Marine spatial planning that addresses ocean climate-driven change ('climate-smart MSP') is a global aspiration to support economic growth, food security and ecosystem sustainability. Ocean climate change ('CC') modelling may become a key decision-support tool for MSP, but traditional modelling analysis and communication challenges prevent their broad uptake. We employed MSP-specific ocean climate modelling analyses to inform a real-life MSP process; addressing how nature conservation and fisheries could be adapted to CC. We found that the currently planned distribution of these activities may become unsustainable during the policy's implementation due to CC, leading to a shortfall in its sustainability and blue growth targets. Significant, climate-driven ecosystem-level shifts in ocean components underpinning designated sites and fishing activity were estimated, reflecting different magnitudes of shifts in benthic versus pelagic, and inshore versus offshore habitats. Supporting adaptation, we then identified: CC refugia (areas where the ecosystem remains within the boundaries of its present state); CC hotspots (where climate drives the ecosystem towards a new state, inconsistent with each sectors' present use distribution); and for the first time, identified bright spots (areas where oceanographic processes drive range expansion opportunities that may support sustainable growth in the medium term). We thus create the means to: identify where sector-relevant ecosystem change is attributable to CC; incorporate resilient delivery of conservation and sustainable ecosystem management aims into MSP; and to harness opportunities for blue growth where they exist. Capturing CC bright spots alongside refugia within protected areas may present important opportunities to meet sustainability targets while helping support the fishing sector in a changing climate. By capitalizing on the natural distribution of climate resilience within ocean ecosystems, such climate-adaptive spatial management strategies could be seen as nature-based solutions to limit the impact of CC on ocean ecosystems and dependent blue economy sectors, paving the way for climate-smart MSP.

Marine mammal conservation: over the horizon

Marine mammals can play important ecological roles in aquatic ecosystems, and their presence can be key to community structure and function. Consequently, marine mammals are often considered indicators of ecosystem health and flagship species. Yet, historical population declines caused by exploitation, and additional current threats, such as climate change, fisheries bycatch, pollution and maritime development, continue to impact many marine mammal species, and at least 25% are classified as threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable) on the IUCN Red List. Conversely, some species have experienced population increases/recoveries in recent decades, reflecting management interventions, and are heralded as conservation successes. To continue these successes and reverse the downward trajectories of at-risk species, it is necessary to evaluate the threats faced by marine mammals and the conservation mechanisms available to address them. Additionally, there is a need to identify evidence-based priorities of both research and conservation needs across a range of settings and taxa. To that effect we: (1) outline the key threats to marine mammals and their impacts, identify the associated knowledge gaps and recommend actions needed; (2) discuss the merits and downfalls of established and emerging conservation mechanisms; (3) outline the application of research and monitoring techniques; and (4) highlight particular taxa/populations that are in urgent need of focus.

Identifying priority habitat for conservation and management of Australian humpback dolphins within a marine protected area

Increasing human activity along the coast has amplified the extinction risk of inshore delphinids. Informed selection and prioritisation of areas for the conservation of inshore delphinids requires a comprehensive understanding of their distribution and habitat use. In this study, we applied an ensemble species distribution modelling approach, combining results of six modelling algorithms to identify areas of high probability of occurrence of the globally Vulnerable Australian humpback dolphin in northern Ningaloo Marine Park (NMP), north-western Australia. Model outputs were based on sighting data collected during systematic, boat-based surveys between 2013 and 2015, and in relation to various ecogeographic variables. Water depth and distance to coast were identified as the most important variables influencing dolphin presence, with dolphins showing a preference for shallow waters (5-15 m) less than 2 km from the coast. Areas of high probability (> 0.6) of dolphin occurrence were primarily (90%) in multiple use areas where extractive human activities are permitted, and were poorly represented in sanctuary (no-take) zones. This spatial mismatch emphasises the need to reassess for future spatial planning and marine park management plan reviews for NMP. Shallow, coastal waters identified here should be considered priority areas for the conservation of this Vulnerable species.

Predicting seasonal occurrence of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in eastern Canadian waters from turtle and ocean sunfish (Mola mola) sighting data and habitat characteristics

Part of the western Atlantic population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea (Vandelli, 1761)) forage in Canadian waters, where high-use areas have been identified using satellite telemetry and opportunistic sightings. Here, we use sightings of leatherback turtles and ocean sunfish (Mola mola (Linnaeus, 1758)) obtained during a systematic large-scale aerial survey, along with opportunistic turtle sightings, to examine the seasonal occurrence and distribution of leatherback turtles in eastern Canada. Using environmental correlates, we predict the spatial and seasonal development of potentially suitable habitats. All data sets confirmed the presence of leatherback turtles off Nova Scotia during summer. They also highlighted turtle occurrence off southern Newfoundland. Opportunistic sightings suggest a seasonal shift in main turtle concentrations from southwest to northeast, with use of southern Newfoundland waters extending into September. A generalized additive model linking environmental characteristics and turtle observations suggests adding the Grand Banks off Newfoundland and waters east of Anticosti Island in the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the potentially important habitat for leatherback turtles. Direct observations helped delineate habitat currently used by leatherback turtles. In the context of climate change, this modelling approach may improve our ability to forecast changes in turtle habitat suitability and the risks of entrapment or collision associated with potentially changing usage patterns.

Fluctuating reproductive rates in Hawaii's humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, reflect recent climate anomalies in the North Pacific

Alongside changing ocean temperatures and ocean chemistry, anthropogenic climate change is now impacting the fundamental processes that support marine systems. However, where natural climate aberrations mask or amplify the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, identifying key detrimental changes is challenging. In these situations, long-term, systematic field studies allow the consequences of anthropogenically driven climate change to be distinguished from the expected fluctuations in natural resources. In this study, we describe fluctuations in encounter rates for humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, between 2008 and 2018. Encounter rates were assessed during transect surveys of the Au'Au Channel, Maui, Hawaii. Initially, rates increased, tracking projected growth rates for this population segment. Rates reached a peak in 2013, then declined through 2018. Specifically, between 2013 and 2018, mother-calf encounter rates dropped by 76.5%, suggesting a rapid reduction in the reproductive rate of the newly designated Hawaii Distinct Population Segment of humpback whales during this time. As this decline coincided with changes in the Pacific decadal oscillation, the development of the NE Pacific marine heat wave and the evolution of the 2016 El Niño, this may be another example of the impact of this potent trifecta of climatic events within the North Pacific.

Ecological correlates of blue whale movement behavior and its predictability in the California Current Ecosystem during the summer-fall feeding season

BACKGROUND

Species distribution models have shown that blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) occur seasonally in high densities in the most biologically productive regions of the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). Satellite telemetry studies have additionally shown that blue whales in the CCE regularly switch between behavioral states consistent with area-restricted searching (ARS) and transiting, indicative of foraging in and moving among prey patches, respectively. However, the relationship between the environmental correlates that serve as a proxy of prey relative to blue whale movement behavior has not been quantitatively assessed.

METHODS

We investigated the association between blue whale behavioral state and environmental predictors in the coastal environments of the CCE using a long-term satellite tracking data set (72 tagged whales; summer-fall months 1998-2008), and predicted the likelihood of ARS behavior at tracked locations using nonparametric multiplicative regression models. The models were built using data from years of cool, productive conditions and validated against years of warm, low-productivity conditions.

RESULTS

The best model contained four predictors: chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature, and seafloor aspect and depth. This model estimated highest ARS likelihood (> 0.8) in areas with high chlorophyll-a levels (> 0.65 mg/m³), intermediate sea surface temperatures (11.6-17.5 °C), and shallow depths (< 850 m). Overall, the model correctly predicted behavioral state throughout the coastal environments of the CCE, while the validation indicated an ecosystem-wide reduction in ARS likelihood during warm years, especially in the southern portion. For comparison, a spatial coordinates model (longitude × latitude) performed slightly better than the environmental model during warm years, providing further evidence that blue whales exhibit strong foraging site fidelity, even when conditions are not conducive to successful foraging.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that blue whale behavioral state in the CCE was predictable from environmental correlates and that ARS behavior was most prevalent in regions of known high whale density, likely reflecting where large prey aggregations consistently develop in summer-fall. Our models of whale movement behavior enhanced our understanding of species distribution by further indicating where foraging was more likely, which could be of value in the identification of key regions of importance for endangered species in management considerations. The models also provided evidence that decadal-scale environmental fluctuations can drive shifts in the distribution and foraging success of this blue whale population.

Environmental drivers of harbour porpoise fine-scale movements

Quantifying intraspecific variation in movement behaviour of marine predators and the underlying environmental drivers is important to inform conservation management of protected species. Here, we provide the first empirical data on fine-scale movements of free-ranging harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in their natural habitat. Data were obtained from six individuals, tagged in two areas of the Danish North Sea, that were equipped with Global Positioning System (GPS) and dive recorder units (V-tags). We used multi-model inference and model averaging to evaluate the relative importance of various static and dynamic environmental conditions on the movement characteristics: speed, turning angle, dive duration, dive depth, dive wiggliness (a proxy for prey chasing behaviour), and post-dive duration. Despite substantial individual differences in horizontal and vertical movement patterns, we found that all the tracked porpoises responded similar to variation in environmental conditions and displayed movements that indicate a higher likelihood of foraging behaviour in shallower and more saline waters. Our study contributes to the identification of important feeding areas for porpoises and can be used to improve existing movement-based simulation models that aim to assess the impact of anthropogenic disturbance on harbour porpoise populations.

The development of an intermediate-duration tag to characterize the diving behavior of large whales

The development of high-resolution archival tag technologies has revolutionized our understanding of diving behavior in marine taxa such as sharks, turtles, and seals during their wide-ranging movements. However, similar applications for large whales have lagged behind due to the difficulty of keeping tags on the animals for extended periods of time. Here, we present a novel configuration of a transdermally attached biologging device called the Advanced Dive Behavior (ADB) tag. The ADB tag contains sensors that record hydrostatic pressure, three-axis accelerometers, magnetometers, water temperature, and light level, all sampled at 1 Hz. The ADB tag also collects Fastloc GPS locations and can send dive summary data through Service Argos, while staying attached to a whale for typical periods of 3-7 weeks before releasing for recovery and subsequent data download. ADB tags were deployed on sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus; N = 46), blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus; N = 8), and fin whales (B. physalus; N = 5) from 2007 to 2015, resulting in attachment durations from 0 to 49.6 days, and recording 31 to 2,539 GPS locations and 27 to 2,918 dives per deployment. Archived dive profiles matched well with published dive shapes of each species from short-term records. For blue and fin whales, feeding lunges were detected using peaks in accelerometer data and matched corresponding vertical excursions in the depth record. In sperm whales, rapid orientation changes in the accelerometer data, often during the bottom phase of dives, were likely related to prey pursuit, representing a relative measure of foraging effort. Sperm whales were documented repeatedly diving to, and likely foraging along, the seafloor. Data from the temperature sensor described the vertical structure of the water column in all three species, extending from the surface to depths >1,600 m. In addition to providing information needed to construct multiweek time budgets, the ADB tag is well suited to studying the effects of anthropogenic sound on whales by allowing for pre- and post-exposure monitoring of the whale's dive behavior. This tag begins to bridge the gap between existing long-duration but low-data throughput tags, and short-duration, high-resolution data loggers.

Inferring cetacean population densities from the absolute dynamic topography of the ocean in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

We inferred the population densities of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) and short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean as functions of the water-column’s physical structure by implementing hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. This approach allowed us to propagate the uncertainty of the field observations into the inference of species-habitat relationships and to generate spatially explicit population density predictions with reduced effects of sampling heterogeneity. Our hypothesis was that the large-scale spatial distributions of these two cetacean species respond primarily to ecological processes resulting from shoaling and outcropping of the pycnocline in regions of wind-forced upwelling and eddy-like circulation. Physically, these processes affect the thermodynamic balance of the water column, decreasing its volume and thus the height of the absolute dynamic topography (ADT). Biologically, they lead to elevated primary productivity and persistent aggregation of low-trophic-level prey. Unlike other remotely sensed variables, ADT provides information about the structure of the entire water column and it is also routinely measured at high spatial-temporal resolution by satellite altimeters with uniform global coverage. Our models provide spatially explicit population density predictions for both species, even in areas where the pycnocline shoals but does not outcrop (e.g. the Costa Rica Dome and the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge). Interannual variations in distribution during El Niño anomalies suggest that the population density of both species decreases dramatically in the Equatorial Cold Tongue and the Costa Rica Dome, and that their distributions retract to particular areas that remain productive, such as the more oceanic waters in the central California Current System, the northern Gulf of California, the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge, and the more southern portion of the Humboldt Current System. We posit that such reductions in available foraging habitats during climatic disturbances could incur high energetic costs on these populations, ultimately affecting individual fitness and survival.