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Yu Z, Liu S, Li H, Liang J, Liu W, Piao S, Tian H, Zhou G, Lu C, You W, Sun P, Dong Y, Sitch S, Agathokleous E. Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management. Nat Commun 2024; 15:3154. [PMID: 38605043 PMCID: PMC11009231 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47143-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2023] [Accepted: 03/21/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Forest carbon sequestration capacity in China remains uncertain due to underrepresented tree demographic dynamics and overlooked of harvest impacts. In this study, we employ a process-based biogeochemical model to make projections by using national forest inventories, covering approximately 415,000 permanent plots, revealing an expansion in biomass carbon stock by 13.6 ± 1.5 Pg C from 2020 to 2100, with additional sink through augmentation of wood product pool (0.6-2.0 Pg C) and spatiotemporal optimization of forest management (2.3 ± 0.03 Pg C). We find that statistical model might cause large bias in long-term projection due to underrepresentation or neglect of wood harvest and forest demographic changes. Remarkably, disregarding the repercussions of harvesting on forest age can result in a premature shift in the timing of the carbon sink peak by 1-3 decades. Our findings emphasize the pressing necessity for the swift implementation of optimal forest management strategies for carbon sequestration enhancement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhen Yu
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink, China Meteorological Administration (ECSS-CMA), School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
- Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment, China's National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, 100091, Beijing, China.
| | - Shirong Liu
- Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment, China's National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, 100091, Beijing, China.
| | - Haikui Li
- Key Laboratory of Forest Management and Growth Modelling, China's National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Research Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, 100091, Beijing, China
| | - Jingjing Liang
- Forest Advanced Computing and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (FACAI), Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, 47907, USA
| | - Weiguo Liu
- College of Forestry, Northwest agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, 712100, China
| | - Shilong Piao
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China
| | - Hanqin Tian
- Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, MA, 02467, USA
| | - Guoyi Zhou
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink, China Meteorological Administration (ECSS-CMA), School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
| | - Chaoqun Lu
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011, USA
| | - Weibin You
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, 350002, China
| | - Pengsen Sun
- Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment, China's National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, 100091, Beijing, China
| | - Yanli Dong
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink, China Meteorological Administration (ECSS-CMA), School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Evgenios Agathokleous
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink, China Meteorological Administration (ECSS-CMA), School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
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2
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Coulston JW, Domke GM, Walker DM, Brooks EB, O’Dea CB. Near-term investments in forest management support long-term carbon sequestration capacity in forests of the United States. PNAS NEXUS 2023; 2:pgad345. [PMID: 38024401 PMCID: PMC10662452 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad345] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
The forest carbon sink of the United States offsets emissions in other sectors. Recently passed US laws include important climate legislation for wildfire reduction, forest restoration, and forest planting. In this study, we examine how wildfire reduction strategies and planting might alter the forest carbon sink. Our results suggest that wildfire reduction strategies reduce carbon sequestration potential in the near term but provide a longer term benefit. Planting initiatives increase carbon sequestration but at levels that do not offset lost sequestration from wildfire reduction strategies. We conclude that recent legislation may increase near-term carbon emissions due to fuel treatments and reduced wildfire frequency and intensity, and expand long-term US carbon sink strength.
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Affiliation(s)
- John W Coulston
- USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 1650 Research Center Dr, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA
| | - Grant M Domke
- USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 1992 Folwell Ave, St Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - David M Walker
- USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station through Oak Ridge Institute for Science Education, 1650 Research Center Dr, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA
| | - Evan B Brooks
- Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, 1650 Research Center Dr, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA
| | - Claire B O’Dea
- USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Washington Office, 201 14th St SW, Washington, DC 20227, USA
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3
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Baker JS, Van Houtven G, Phelan J, Latta G, Clark CM, Austin KG, Sodiya OE, Ohrel SB, Buckley J, Gentile LE, Martinich J. Projecting U.S. forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario. FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS 2022; 147:1-17. [PMID: 36923688 PMCID: PMC10013705 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102898] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems remains uncertain, with wide variation in potential climate impacts across different radiative forcing scenarios and global circulation models, as well as potential variation in forest productivity impacts across species and regions. This study uses an empirical forest composition model to estimate the impact of climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and other environmental parameters on forest productivity for 94 forest species across the conterminous United States. The composition model is linked to a dynamic optimization model of the U.S. forestry sector to quantify economic impacts of a high warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) under six alternative climate projections and two socioeconomic scenarios. Results suggest that forest market impacts and consumer impacts could range from relatively large losses (-$2.6 billion) to moderate gain ($0.2 billion) per year across climate scenarios. Temperature-induced higher mortality and lower productivity for some forest types and scenarios, coupled with increasing economic demands for forest products, result in forest inventory losses by end of century relative to the current climate baseline (3%-23%). Lower inventories and reduced carbon sequestration capacity result in additional economic losses of up to approximately $4.1 billion per year. However, our results also highlight important adaptation mechanisms, such forest type changes and shifts in regional mill capacity that could reduce the impact of high impact climate scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin S. Baker
- Dept. of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 2800 Faucette Dr, Raleigh, NC 27607, United States of America
| | - George Van Houtven
- RTI International, 3040 East Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, United States of America
| | - Jennifer Phelan
- RTI International, 3040 East Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, United States of America
| | - Gregory Latta
- University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Dr., MS 1139, Moscow, ID 83844-1139, United States of America
| | - Christopher M. Clark
- United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, D.C. 20460, United States of America
| | - Kemen G. Austin
- RTI International, 3040 East Cornwallis Rd., Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, United States of America
| | - Olakunle E. Sodiya
- Dept. of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 2800 Faucette Dr, Raleigh, NC 27607, United States of America
| | - Sara B. Ohrel
- United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, D.C. 20460, United States of America
| | - John Buckley
- McCormick Taylor, 509 South Exeter Street, 4th Floor, Baltimore, MD 21202, United States of America
| | - Lauren E. Gentile
- United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, D.C. 20460, United States of America
| | - Jeremy Martinich
- United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, D.C. 20460, United States of America
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4
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Daigneault A, Baker JS, Guo J, Lauri P, Favero A, Forsell N, Johnston C, Ohrel SB, Sohngen B. How the future of the global forest sink depends on timber demand, forest management, and carbon policies. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE : HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 2022; 76:1-13. [PMID: 38024226 PMCID: PMC10631560 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
Deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. Deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. When projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. This study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (SSP) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. We illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. Although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2-5.8 GtCO2e/yr over the next century. Carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from -0.8 to 4.9 GtCO2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of SSPs on forest sector model estimates. Improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Pekka Lauri
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria
| | | | - Nicklas Forsell
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria
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5
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Wade CM, Baker JS, Jones JPH, Austin KG, Cai Y, de Hernandez AB, Latta GS, Ohrel SB, Ragnauth S, Creason J, McCarl B. Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture. JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS 2022; 37:127-161. [PMID: 37942211 PMCID: PMC10631549 DOI: 10.1561/112.00000545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Understanding greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the U.S. agriculture and forest sectors is critical for evaluating potential pathways to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 2° C. Using the FASOMGHG model, parameterized to reflect varying conditions across shared socioeconomic pathways, we project the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from U.S. agriculture and forestry across a range of carbon price scenarios. Under a moderate price scenario ($20 per ton CO2 with a 3% annual growth rate), cumulative mitigation potential over 2015-2055 varies substantially across SSPs, from 8.3 to 17.7 GtCO2e. Carbon sequestration in forests contributes the majority, 64-71%, of total mitigation across both sectors. We show that under a high income and population growth scenario over 60% of the total projected increase in forest carbon is driven by growth in demand for forest products, while mitigation incentives result in the remainder. This research sheds light on the interactions between alternative socioeconomic narratives and mitigation policy incentives which can help prioritize outreach, investment, and targeted policies for reducing emissions from and storing more carbon in these land use systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher M. Wade
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC, 27709, USA
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 2800 Faucette Dr, Raleigh, NC, 27607, USA
| | - Justin S. Baker
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 2800 Faucette Dr, Raleigh, NC, 27607, USA
| | | | - Kemen G. Austin
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC, 27709, USA
| | - Yongxia Cai
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC, 27709, USA
| | | | - Gregory S. Latta
- Policy Analysis Group, College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844
| | - Sara B. Ohrel
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Shaun Ragnauth
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Jared Creason
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Bruce McCarl
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843, USA
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6
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Roe S, Streck C, Beach R, Busch J, Chapman M, Daioglou V, Deppermann A, Doelman J, Emmet‐Booth J, Engelmann J, Fricko O, Frischmann C, Funk J, Grassi G, Griscom B, Havlik P, Hanssen S, Humpenöder F, Landholm D, Lomax G, Lehmann J, Mesnildrey L, Nabuurs G, Popp A, Rivard C, Sanderman J, Sohngen B, Smith P, Stehfest E, Woolf D, Lawrence D. Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:6025-6058. [PMID: 34636101 PMCID: PMC9293189 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2020] [Revised: 08/16/2021] [Accepted: 08/19/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom-up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2 eq) land-based mitigation is 8-13.8 GtCO2 eq yr-1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75-4.8 GtCO2eq yr-1 ) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie Roe
- Department of Environmental SciencesUniversity of VirginiaCharlottesvilleVirginiaUSA
- Climate FocusBerlinGermany
| | - Charlotte Streck
- Climate FocusBerlinGermany
- International PoliticsUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - Robert Beach
- Environmental Engineering and Economics DivisionRTI InternationalResearch Triangle ParkNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - Jonah Busch
- Conservation InternationalArlingtonVirginiaUSA
| | - Melissa Chapman
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and ManagementUniversity of California BerkeleyBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Vassilis Daioglou
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable DevelopmentUtrecht UniversityUtrechtthe Netherlands
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe Haguethe Netherlands
| | - Andre Deppermann
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
| | - Jonathan Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe Haguethe Netherlands
| | - Jeremy Emmet‐Booth
- New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research CentrePalmerston NorthNew Zealand
| | - Jens Engelmann
- Department of Agricultural and Applied EconomicsUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Oliver Fricko
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
| | | | - Jason Funk
- Land Use and Climate Knowledge InitiativeChicagoIllinoisUSA
| | | | | | - Petr Havlik
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
| | - Steef Hanssen
- Department of Environmental ScienceRadboud University NijmegenNijmegenThe Netherlands
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | - David Landholm
- Climate FocusBerlinGermany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | - Guy Lomax
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterUK
| | - Johannes Lehmann
- Soil and Crop ScienceSchool of Integrative Plant ScienceCollege of Agriculture and Life ScienceCornell UniversityIthacaNew YorkUSA
| | - Leah Mesnildrey
- Climate FocusBerlinGermany
- Sciences Po ParisParis School of International Affairs (PSIA)ParisFrance
| | - Gert‐Jan Nabuurs
- Wageningen Environmental ResearchWageningen University and ResearchWageningenthe Netherlands
- Forest Ecology and Forest Management GroupWageningen UniversityWageningenthe Netherlands
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | | | | | - Brent Sohngen
- Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development EconomicsOhio State UniversityColumbusOhioUSA
| | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental SciencesUniversity of AberdeenAberdeenUK
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe Haguethe Netherlands
| | - Dominic Woolf
- Soil and Crop ScienceSchool of Integrative Plant ScienceCollege of Agriculture and Life ScienceCornell UniversityIthacaNew YorkUSA
| | - Deborah Lawrence
- Department of Environmental SciencesUniversity of VirginiaCharlottesvilleVirginiaUSA
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7
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Austin KG, Baker JS, Sohngen BL, Wade CM, Daigneault A, Ohrel SB, Ragnauth S, Bean A. The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world's forests to mitigate climate change. Nat Commun 2020; 11:5946. [PMID: 33262324 PMCID: PMC7708837 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2020] [Accepted: 10/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5-$100/tCO2. We project 0.6-6.0 GtCO2 yr-1 in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2-393 billion USD yr-1, with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30-54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415-875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35-$100/tCO2, with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO2 in 2055.
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Affiliation(s)
- K G Austin
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC, 27709, USA.
| | - J S Baker
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC, 27709, USA
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 2800 Faucette Dr, Raleigh, NC, 27607, USA
| | - B L Sohngen
- Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA
| | - C M Wade
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC, 27709, USA
| | - A Daigneault
- School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469, USA
| | - S B Ohrel
- US EPA, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - S Ragnauth
- US EPA, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - A Bean
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC, 27709, USA
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8
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Favero A, Daigneault A, Sohngen B. Forests: Carbon sequestration, biomass energy, or both? SCIENCE ADVANCES 2020; 6:eaay6792. [PMID: 32232153 PMCID: PMC7096156 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aay6792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
There is a continuing debate over the role that woody bioenergy plays in climate mitigation. This paper clarifies this controversy and illustrates the impacts of woody biomass demand on forest harvests, prices, timber management investments and intensity, forest area, and the resulting carbon balance under different climate mitigation policies. Increased bioenergy demand increases forest carbon stocks thanks to afforestation activities and more intensive management relative to a no-bioenergy case. Some natural forests, however, are converted to more intensive management, with potential biodiversity losses. Incentivizing both wood-based bioenergy and forest sequestration could increase carbon sequestration and conserve natural forests simultaneously. We conclude that the expanded use of wood for bioenergy will result in net carbon benefits, but an efficient policy also needs to regulate forest carbon sequestration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alice Favero
- Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
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9
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Sohngen B, Salem ME, Baker JS, Shell MJ, Kim SJ. The Influence of Parametric Uncertainty on Projections of Forest Land Use, Carbon, and Markets. JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS 2019; 34:129-158. [PMID: 32461715 PMCID: PMC7252575 DOI: 10.1561/112.00000445] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
This paper uses Monte Carlo methods and regression analysis to assess the role of uncertainty in yield function and land supply elasticity parameters on land use, carbon, and market outcomes in a long-term dynamic model of the global forest sector. The results suggest that parametric uncertainty has little influence on projected future timber prices and global output, but it does have important implications for regional projections of outputs. A wide range of outcomes are possible for timber outputs, depending on growth and elasticity parameters. Timber output in the U.S., for instance, could change by -67 to +98 million m3 per year by 2060. Despite uncertainty in the parameters, our analysis suggests that the temperate zone may sequester +30 to +79 Pg C by 2060 and +58 to +114 Pg C by 2090 while the tropics are projected to store -35 to +70 Pg C and -33 to +73 Pg C for the same time periods, respectively. Attributional analysis shows that uncertainty in the parameters regulating forest growth has a more important impact on projections of future carbon storage than uncertainty in the land supply elasticity parameters. Moreover, the results suggest that understanding growth parameters in regions with large current carbon stocks is most important for making future projections of carbon storage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brent Sohngen
- Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, 322 Ag. Admin Building, 2120 Fyffe Rd., Columbus, OH 43210, United States
| | - Marwa E Salem
- RTI International, P.O. Box 12194, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Durham NC 27709, United States
| | - Justin S Baker
- RTI International, P.O. Box 12194, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Durham NC 27709, United States
| | - Michael J Shell
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., United States
| | - Sei Jin Kim
- Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, 322 Ag. Admin Building, 2120 Fyffe Rd., Columbus, OH 43210, United States
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10
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Jones JPH, Baker JS, Austin K, Latta G, Wade CM, Cai Y, Aramayo-Lipa L, Beach R, Ohrel SB, Ragnauth S, Creason J, Cole J. Importance of Cross-Sector Interactions When Projecting Forest Carbon across Alternative Socioeconomic Futures. JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS 2019; 34:205-231. [PMID: 32280189 PMCID: PMC7147782 DOI: 10.1561/112.00000449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
In recent decades, the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector has offset a sizable portion of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the future, the magnitude of this sink has important implications not only for projected U.S. net GHG emissions under a reference case but also for the cost of achieving a given mitigation target. The larger the contribution of the forest sector towards reducing net GHG emissions, the less mitigation is needed from other sectors. Conversely, if the forest sector begins to contribute a smaller sink, or even becomes a net source, mitigation requirements from other sectors may need to become more stringent and costlier to achieve economy wide emissions targets. There is acknowledged uncertainty in estimates of the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector, attributable to large ranges in the projections of, among other things, future economic conditions, population growth, policy implementation, and technological advancement. We examined these drivers in the context of an economic model of the agricultural and forestry sectors, to demonstrate the importance of cross-sector interactions on projections of emissions and carbon sequestration. Using this model, we compared detailed scenarios that differ in their assumptions of demand for agriculture and forestry products, trade, rates of (sub)urbanization, and limits on timber harvest on protected lands. We found that a scenario assuming higher demand and more trade for forest products resulted in increased forest growth and larger net GHG sequestration, while a scenario featuring higher agricultural demand, ceteris paribus led to forest land conversion and increased anthropogenic emissions. Importantly, when high demand scenarios are implemented conjunctively, agricultural sector emissions under a high income-growth world with increased livestock-product demand are fully displaced by substantial GHG sequestration from the forest sector with increased forest product demand. This finding highlights the potential limitations of single-sector modeling approaches that ignore important interaction effects between sectors.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Justin S. Baker
- RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Durham, NC 27709, USA
| | - Kemen Austin
- RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Durham, NC 27709, USA
| | - Greg Latta
- University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Dr. MS 1139, Moscow, ID 83844, USA
| | | | - Yongxia Cai
- RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Durham, NC 27709, USA
| | | | - Robert Beach
- RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd., Durham, NC 27709, USA
| | - Sara B. Ohrel
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Shaun Ragnauth
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Jared Creason
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
| | - Jeff Cole
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC, 20460, USA
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Baker J, Wade C, Sohngen B, Ohrel S, Fawcett A. Potential complementarity between forest carbon sequestration incentives and biomass energy expansion. ENERGY POLICY 2019; 126:391-401. [PMID: 32161429 PMCID: PMC7065381 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
There is a growing literature on the potential contributions the global forest sector could make toward long-term climate action goals through increased carbon sequestration and the provision of biomass for energy generation. However, little work to date has explored possible interactions between carbon sequestration incentives and bioenergy expansion policies in forestry. This study develops a simple conceptual model for evaluating whether carbon sequestration and biomass energy policies are carbon complements or substitutes. Then, we apply a dynamic structural model of the global forest sector to assess terrestrial carbon changes under different combinations of carbon sequestration price incentives and forest bioenergy expansion. Our results show that forest bioenergy expansion can complement carbon sequestration policies in the near- and medium-term, reducing marginal abatement costs and increasing mitigation potential. By the end of the century these policies become substitutes, with forest bioenergy expansion increasing the costs of carbon sequestration. This switch is driven by relatively high demand and price growth for pulpwood under scenarios with forest bioenergy expansion, which incentivizes management changes in the near- and medium-term that are carbon beneficial (e.g., afforestation and intensive margin shifts), but requires sustained increases in pulpwood harvest levels over the long-term.
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Affiliation(s)
- J.S. Baker
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC 27709, USA
| | - C.M. Wade
- RTI International, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC 27709, USA
| | | | - S. Ohrel
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20460, USA
| | - A.A. Fawcett
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20460, USA
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12
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Wade CM, Baker JS, Latta G, Ohrel SB, Allpress J. Projecting the Spatial Distribution of Possible Planted Forest Expansion in the United States. JOURNAL OF FORESTRY 2019; 117:560-578. [PMID: 32153304 PMCID: PMC7061452 DOI: 10.1093/jofore/fvz054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
As the demand for forest products and carbon storage in standing timbers increases, intensive planting of forest resources is expected to increase. With the increased use of plantation practices, it is important to understand the influence that forest plot characteristics have on the likelihood of where these practices are occurring. Depending on the goals of a policy or program, increasing forest planting could be a desirable outcome or something to avoid. This study estimates a spatially explicit logistical regression function to assess the likelihood that forest plots will be planted based on physical, climate, and economic factors. The empirical results are used to project the potential spatial distribution of forest planting, at the intensive and extensive land-use margins, across illustrative future scenarios. Results from this analysis offer insight into the factors that have driven forest planting in the United States historically and the potential distribution of new forest planting in the coming decades under policy or market scenarios that incentivize improved forest productivity or certain ecosystem services provided by intensively managed systems (e.g., carbon sequestration).
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Gregory Latta
- Natural Resources and Society, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844
| | - Sara B Ohrel
- US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004
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13
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Ohrel SB. Policy Perspective on the Role of Forest Sector Modeling. JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS 2019; 34:187-204. [PMID: 32184544 PMCID: PMC7077799 DOI: 10.1561/112.00000506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
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14
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Cai Y, Wade CM, Baker JS, Jones JPH, Latta GS, Ohrel SB, Ragnauth SA, Creason JR. Implications of Alternative Land Conversion Cost Specifications on Projected Afforestation Potential in the United States. METHODS REPORT (RTI PRESS) 2018; 2018. [PMID: 32211618 PMCID: PMC7090374 DOI: 10.3768/rtipress.2018.op.0057.1811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2018] [Accepted: 10/05/2018] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
The Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) has historically relied on regional average costs of land conversion to simulate land use change across cropland, pasture, rangeland, and forestry. This assumption limits the accuracy of the land conversion estimates by not recognizing spatial heterogeneity in land quality and conversion costs. Using data from Nielsen et al. (2014), we obtained the afforestation cost per county, then estimated nonparametric regional marginal cost functions for land converting to forestry. These afforestation costs were then incorporated into FASOMGHG. Three different assumptions for land moving into the forest sector (constant average conversion cost, static rising marginal costs, and dynamic rising marginal cost) were run in order to assess the implications of alternative land conversion cost assumptions on key outcomes, such as projected forest area and cropland use, carbon sequestration, and forest product output.
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Kim SJ, Baker JS, Sohngen BL, Shell M. Cumulative global forest carbon implications of regional bioenergy expansion policies. RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS 2018; 53:198-219. [PMID: 30245551 PMCID: PMC6145497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Several previous studies have evaluated the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of forest biomass energy relative to fossil fuel equivalents over different spatial scales and time frames and applying a variety of methodologies. This paper contributes to this literature through an analysis of multiple projected sources of biomass demand growth in different regions of the world using a detailed intertemporal optimization model of the global forest sector. Given the range of current policies incentivizing bioenergy expansion globally, evaluating the combined global implications of regional bioenergy expansion efforts is critical for understanding the extent to which renewable energy supplied from forest biomass can contribute to various policy goals (including GHG emissions mitigation). Unlike previous studies that have been more regionally focused, this study provides a global perspective, illustrating how large potential demand increases for forest biomass in one or multiple regions can alter future forest management trends, markets, and forest carbon sequestration in key timber supply regions. Results show that potential near term (2015-2030) biomass demand growth in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere can drive forest resource investment at the intensive and extensive margins, resulting in a net increase in forest carbon stocks for most regions of the world. When the reallocation of biomass away from traditional pulp and sawtimber markets is accounted for, net forest carbon sequestration increases (that stored on the land and in wood products) by 9.4 billion tons CO2 over the near term and 15.4 billion tons CO2 by 2095. Even if most of the increased forest biomass demand arises from one region (e.g., Europe) due to a particularly strong promotion of forest bioenergy expansion, changes in forest management globally in anticipation of this demand increase could result in carbon beneficial outcomes that can be shared by most regions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Justin S. Baker
- RTI International, 5040 E. Cornwallis Rd., P.O. Box 12194, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2194, United States
| | | | - Michael Shell
- United States Environmental Protection Agency, United States
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