Established Tumour Biomarkers Predict Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in the General Population

Preoperative Prediction of STAS Risk in Primary Lung Adenocarcinoma Using Machine Learning: An Interpretable Model with SHAP Analysis

BACKGROUND

Accurate preoperative prediction of spread through air spaces (STAS) in primary lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is critical for optimizing surgical strategies and improving patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a machine learning (ML) based model to predict STAS using preoperative CT imaging features and clinicopathological data, while enhancing interpretability through shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This multicenter retrospective study included 1237 patients with pathologically confirmed primary LUAD from three hospitals. Patients from Center 1 (n=932) were divided into a training set (n=652) and an internal test set (n=280). Patients from Centers 2 (n=165) and 3 (n=140) formed external validation sets. CT imaging features and clinical variables were selected using Boruta and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Seven ML models were developed and evaluated using five-fold cross-validation. Performance was assessed using F1 score, recall, precision, specificity, sensitivity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model achieved AUCs of 0.973 (training set), 0.862 (internal test set), and 0.842/0.810 (external validation sets). SHAP analysis identified nodule type, carcinoembryonic antigen, maximum nodule diameter, and lobulated sign as key features for predicting STAS. Logistic regression analysis confirmed these as independent risk factors.

CONCLUSION

The XGB model demonstrated high predictive accuracy and interpretability for STAS. By integrating widely available clinical and imaging features, this model offers a practical and effective tool for preoperative risk stratification, supporting personalized surgical planning in primary LUAD management.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Predicting Cardiovascular and Cancer Deaths in a Middle-Aged Population Followed-Up for 61 Years until Extinction

BACKGROUND AND AIM

To study the relationships of cardiovascular risk factors with cancer and cardiovascular mortality in a cohort of middle-aged men followed-up for 61 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A rural cohort of 1611 cancer- and cardiovascular disease-free men aged 40-59 years was examined in 1960 within the Italian Section of the Seven Countries Study, and 28 risk factors measured at baseline were used to predict cancer (n = 459) and cardiovascular deaths (n = 678) that occurred during 61 years of follow-up until the extinction of the cohort with Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

A model with 28 risk factors and cancer deaths as the end-point produced eight statistically significant coefficients for age, smoking habits, mother early death, corneal arcus, xanthelasma and diabetes directly related to events, and arm circumference and healthy diet inversely related. In the corresponding models for major cardiovascular diseases and their subgroups, only the coefficients of age and smoking habits were significant among those found for cancer deaths, to which healthy diet can be added if considering coronary heart disease alone. Following a competing risks analysis by the Fine-Gray method, risk factors significantly common to both conditions were only age, smoking, and xanthelasma.

CONCLUSIONS

A sizeable number of traditional cardiovascular risk factors were not predictors of cancer death in a middle-aged male cohort followed-up until extinction.

Risk of cardiovascular death in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma based on the Fine-Gray model

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common types of cancers worldwide, ranking fifth among men and seventh among women, resulting in more than 7 million deaths annually. With the development of medical technology, the 5-year survival rate of HCC patients can be increased to 70%. However, HCC patients are often at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) death due to exposure to potentially cardiotoxic treatments compared with non-HCC patients. Moreover, CVD and cancer have become major disease burdens worldwide. Thus, further research is needed to lessen the risk of CVD death in HCC patient survivors.

AIM

To determine the independent risk factors for CVD death in HCC patients and predict cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in HCC patients.

METHODS

This study was conducted on the basis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and included HCC patients with a diagnosis period from 2010 to 2015. The independent risk factors were identified using the Fine-Gray model. A nomograph was constructed to predict the CVM in HCC patients. The nomograph performance was measured using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) value. Moreover, the net benefit was estimated via decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The study included 21545 HCC patients, of whom 619 died of CVD. Age (< 60) [1.981 (1.573-2.496), P < 0.001], marital status (married) [unmarried: 1.370 (1.076-1.745), P = 0.011], alpha fetoprotein (normal) [0.778 (0.640-0.946), P = 0.012], tumor size (≤ 2 cm) [(2, 5] cm: 1.420 (1.060-1.903), P = 0.019; > 5 cm: 2.090 (1.543-2.830), P < 0.001], surgery (no) [0.376 (0.297-0.476), P < 0.001], and chemotherapy(none/unknown) [0.578 (0.472-0.709), P < 0.001] were independent risk factors for CVD death in HCC patients. The discrimination and calibration of the nomograph were better. The C-index values for the training and validation sets were 0.736 and 0.665, respectively. The AUC values of the ROC curves at 2, 4, and 6 years were 0.702, 0.725, 0.740 in the training set and 0.697, 0.710, 0.744 in the validation set, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the predicted probabilities of the CVM prediction model in the training set vs the validation set were largely consistent with the actual probabilities. DCA demonstrated that the prediction model has a high net benefit.

CONCLUSION

Risk factors for CVD death in HCC patients were investigated for the first time. The nomograph served as an important reference tool for relevant clinical management decisions.

Evolving perspectives in reverse cardio-oncology: A review of current status, pathophysiological insights, and future directives

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer are leading causes of mortality worldwide, traditionally linked through adverse effects of cancer therapies on cardiovascular health. However, reverse cardio-oncology, a burgeoning field, shifts this perspective to examine how cardiovascular diseases influence the onset and progression of cancer. This novel approach has revealed a higher likelihood of cancer development in patients with pre-existing cardiovascular conditions, attributed to shared risk factors such as obesity, a sedentary lifestyle, and smoking. Underlying mechanisms like chronic inflammation and clonal hematopoiesis further illuminate the connections between cardiovascular ailments and cancer. This comprehensive narrative review, spanning a broad spectrum of studies, outlines the syndromic classification of cardio-oncology, the intersection of cardiovascular risk factors and oncogenesis, and the bidirectional dynamics between CVD and cancer. Additionally, the review also discusses the pathophysiological mechanisms underpinning this interconnection, examining the roles of cardiokines, genetic factors, and the effects of cardiovascular therapies and biomarkers in cancer diagnostics. Lastly, it aims to underline future directives, emphasising the need for integrated healthcare strategies, interdisciplinary research, and comprehensive treatment protocols.

Tumor biomarkers in evaluating the severity and prognosis of idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension: A comprehensive analysis

Inflammation contributes to development of idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH), and tumor biomarkers can reflect inflammatory and immune status. We aimed to determine the value of tumor biomarkers in IPAH comprehensively. We enrolled 315 patients with IPAH retrospectively. Tumor biomarkers were correlated with established indicators of pulmonary hypertension severity. Multivariable Cox regression found that AFP (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.587, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.014-2.482, p = 0.043) and CA125 (HR: 2.018, 95% CI: 1.163-3.504, p = 0.013) could independently predict prognosis of IPAH. The changes of AFP over time were associated with prognosis of patients, each 1 ng/mL increase in AFP was associated with 5.4% increased risk of clinical worsening (HR: 1.054, 95% CI: 1.001-1.110, p = 0.046), enabling detection of disease progression. Moreover, beyond well-validated PH biomarkers, CA125 was still of prognostic value in the low-risk patients (HR: 1.014, 95% CI: 1.004-1.024, p = 0.004), allowing for more accurate risk stratification and prediction of disease outcomes. AFP and CA125 can serve for prognosis prediction, risk stratification, and dynamic monitor in patients with IPAH.

Cardiovascular Disease as a Consequence or a Cause of Cancer: Potential Role of Extracellular Vesicles

Both cardiovascular disease and cancer continue to be causes of morbidity and mortality all over the world. Preventing and treating heart disease in patients undergoing cancer treatment remain an important and ongoing challenge for improving the lives of cancer patients, but also for their survival. Despite ongoing efforts to improve patient survival, minimal advances have been made in the early detection of cardiovascular disease in patients suffering from cancer. Understanding the communication between cancer and cardiovascular disease can be based on a deeper knowledge of the molecular mechanisms that define the profile of the bilateral network and establish disease-specific biomarkers and therapeutic targets. The role of exosomes, microvesicles, and apoptotic bodies, together defined as extracellular vesicles (EVs), in cross talk between cardiovascular disease and cancer is in an incipient form of research. Here, we will discuss the preclinical evidence on the bilateral connection between cancer and cardiovascular disease (especially early cardiac changes) through some specific mediators such as EVs. Investigating EV-based biomarkers and therapies may uncover the responsible mechanisms, detect the early stages of cardiovascular damage and elucidate novel therapeutic approaches. The ultimate goal is to reduce the burden of cardiovascular diseases by improving the standard of care in oncological patients treated with anticancer drugs or radiotherapy.

Multifactorial Diseases of the Heart, Kidneys, Lungs, and Liver and Incident Cancer: Epidemiology and Shared Mechanisms

Within the aging population, the frequency of cancer is increasing dramatically. In addition, multiple genetic and environmental factors lead to common multifactorial diseases, including cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and metabolic-associated fatty liver disease. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness of the connection between cancer and multifactorial diseases, as well as how one can affect the other, resulting in a vicious cycle. Although the exact mechanistic explanations behind this remain to be fully explored, some progress has been made in uncovering the common pathologic mechanisms. In this review, we focus on the nature of the link between cancer and common multifactorial conditions, as well as specific shared mechanisms, some of which may represent either preventive or therapeutic targets. Rather than organ-specific interactions, we herein focus on the shared mechanisms among the multifactorial diseases, which may explain the increased cancer risk. More research on this subject will highlight the significance of developing new drugs that target multiple systems rather than just one disease.

Association between serum carcinoembryonic antigen and cardiometabolic risks: Implication for cardiometabolic prevention

BACKGROUND

Serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is a biomarker commonly used to detect colorectal cancer. CEA levels are affected by many factors, including cardiometabolic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and diabetes. Cardiometabolic diseases and cancer share a similar pathological inflammatory pathway, which correlates with an unhealthy lifestyle. Hence, establishing an adequate CEA cut-off value might be a valuable reference for developing precision healthcare programs for cardiometabolic disease prevention. This study aimed to investigate the association between cardiometabolic risks and serum CEA and the underlying factors.

METHODS

A community-based, cross-sectional study was conducted between March and December 2021 on the western coast of Taiwan. Lifestyle data were assessed using a structured questionnaire. The cardiometabolic biomarkers, serum CEA, urine malondialdehyde, and 1-hydroxypyrene were quantified by the central laboratory of the collaborating hospital. Chi-square and binary multivariable logistic regression implemented in R version 4.0.2 were used to identify factors defining the risk of high serum CEA levels.

RESULTS

A total of 6,295 adult residents without cancer-related diseases completed the study. The mean age was 48.6 (SD = 16.4) years, 56% were female, 32% had metabolic syndrome, and 23% and 10% had CVDs and diabetes, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression showed that age ≥ 65 years, male sex, alcohol consumption, smoking, infrequent use of dental floss, fewer remaining teeth, CVDs, diabetes, and oxidative stress were significantly associated with serum CEA ≥ 3 ng/mL. The discriminatory performance of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75 (0.73-0.76), showing that this model was suitable for distinguishing high CEA levels.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight the importance of understanding cardiometabolic diseases, unhealthy lifestyles, and oxidative stress, which contribute to high serum CEA. This study demonstrates that CEA, a well-known tumor marker, can help the early detection and prevention of cardiometabolic diseases via personalized lifestyle modification.

High-normal serum carcinoembryonic antigen levels and increased risk of diabetic peripheral neuropathy in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Increased serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels are reported to be associated with various metabolic and inflammatory diseases. This study assessed whether high-normal serum CEA is related to diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

All subjects received DPN assessment based on neuropathic symptoms, neuropathic signs, and nerve conduction studies to calculate composite Z scores of nerve latency, amplitude and conduction velocity (NCV). DPN was confirmed by both at least a presentation of neuropathic symptoms/signs and an abnormal nerve conduction index. Serum CEA levels and other clinical indices were also synchronously detected. Multivariable linear regression analyses were used to determine the independent effects of serum CEA levels on nerve conduction indices, multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine the independent impact of CEA levels on the risk of DPN, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the diagnostic capability of CEA levels to discriminate DPN.

RESULTS

We ultimately recruited 402 eligible subjects with normal ranges of serum CEA for this study, and 25.4% (n = 102) were determined to have DPN. After adjusting for other clinical covariates, serum CEA levels were independently associated with the composite Z score for latency (β = 0.132, t = 2.330, p = 0.021), amplitude (β = - 0.164, t = - 2.838, p = 0.005) and NCV (β = - 0.210, t = - 3.662, p < 0.001). Moreover, the prevalence of DPN in the first, second, third and fourth quartiles of CEA level was 12.9%, 19.0%, 29.4% and 40.4%, respectively (p for trend < 0.001); the corresponding adjusted odds ratios and 95% CIs for DPN in CEA quartiles were 1, 1.47 (0.45-4.82), 1.72 (0.54-5.53) and 4.58 (1.39-15.06), respectively. Furthermore, the optimal cut-off value of high-normal serum CEA to discriminate DPN was ≥ 2.66 ng/mL, with a Youden index of 0.28, sensitivity of 66.67% and specificity of 61.00%.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased serum CEA levels within the normal range are closely linked to dysfunction of peripheral nerve conduction and the risk of DPN, and high-normal serum CEA levels are a potential risk factor for DPN in T2D.

Effects of APOE gene ε4 allele on serum lipid profiles and risk of cardiovascular disease and tumorigenesis in southern Chinese population

Background

Human apolipoprotein E (APOE) polymorphisms are attributable to the presence of three common alleles, namely, ε2, ε3, and ε4, which generate six genotypes, viz, E2/E2, E2/E3, E3/E3, E3/E4, E4/E4, and E2/E4. APOE polymorphisms are associated with all types of tumors and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, the relationship between the type of APOE polymorphisms and tumorigenesis remains debatable. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the role of APOE polymorphisms on the tumor with or without CVD in southern China.

Methods

A total of 1438 participants were categorized into 4 groups: 409 patients with tumor, 369 patients with CVD, 338 patients with both tumor and CVD, and 322 controls. APOE polymorphisms were determined by genotyping assay. The factors influencing tumor patients with or without CVD were also analyzed by logistic regression analysis.

Results

The present study involved different types of solid tumors. Lung cancer was the most common cancer (20.2%, 151/747), followed by colorectal (17%, 127/747), esophageal (9.8%, 73/747), and liver (8.7%, 65/747) cancers. E3/E3 was the most frequent genotype, and ɛ3 was the greatest allele frequency in our study population. The frequencies of the E3/E3, E3/E4, E2/E3, E2/E4, E4/E4, and E2/E2 genotypes in tumor patients were 76.97% (575/747), 14.19% (106/747), 6.83% (51/747), 1.2% (9/747), 0.4% (3/747), and 0.4% (3/747), respectively. Tumor patients carrying ε3 with or without CVD showed higher levels of TG, TC, and LDL-C and lower levels of HDL-C compared to the controls carrying ε3. On the other hand, the tumor patients carrying ε4 with or without CVD showed higher levels of TG and LDL-C and lower levels of HDL-C (all P < 0.05). The frequency of APOE ε4 allele and the E3/E4 genotype was relatively greater in tumor or CVD patients (P < 0.001). In addition, ε4 allele acted as an independent risk factor for tumor patients group (P = 0.037, adjusted OR = 1.92, 95% CI 1.04–3.55) and tumor + CVD patients group (P = 0.012, adjusted OR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.22–5.23).

Conclusions

Individuals carrying ε4 are at a higher risk of tumor with or without CVD, and APOE polymorphisms affect the serum lipid profiles.

Bidirectional Relationship Between Cancer and Heart Failure: Insights on Circulating Biomarkers

Cancer and heart failure are the two leading causes of death in developed countries. These two apparently distinct clinical entities share similar risk factors, symptoms, and pathophysiological mechanisms (inflammation, metabolic disturbances, neuro-hormonal and immune system activation, and endothelial dysfunction). Beyond the well-known cardiotoxic effects of oncological therapies, cancer and heart failure are thought to be tied by a bidirectional relationship, where one disease favors the other and vice versa. In this context, biomarkers represent a simple, reproducible, sensitive and cost-effective method to explore such relationship. In this review, we recapitulate the evidence on cardiovascular and oncological biomarkers in the field of cardioncology, focusing on their role in treatment-naïve cancer patients. Cardioncological biomarkers are useful tools in risk stratification, early detection of cardiotoxicity, follow-up, and prognostic assessment. Intriguingly, these biomarkers might contribute to better understand the common pathophysiology of cancer and heart failure, thus allowing the implementation of preventive and treatment strategies in cardioncological patients