Quantitative Human Paleogenetics: What can Ancient DNA Tell us About Complex Trait Evolution?

Genetic Risk Scores for the Clinical Rheumatologist

BACKGROUND/HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

The advent of genome-wide sequencing and large-scale genetic epidemiological studies has led to numerous opportunities for the application of genetics in clinical medicine. Leveraging this information toward the formation of clinically useful tools has been an ongoing research goal in this area. A genetic risk score (GRS) is a measure that attempts to estimate the cumulative contribution of established genetic risk factors toward an outcome of interest, taking into account the cumulative risk that each of these individual genetic risk factors conveys. The purpose of this perspective is to provide a systematic framework to evaluate a GRS for clinical application.

SUMMARY OF CURRENT LITERATURE

Since the initial polygenic risk score methodology in 2007, there has been increasing GRS application across the medical literature. In rheumatology, this has included application to rheumatoid arthritis, gout, spondyloarthritis, lupus, and inflammatory arthritis.

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS

GRSs are particularly relevant to rheumatology, where common diseases have many complex genetic factors contributing to risk. Despite this, there is no widely accepted method for the critical application of a GRS, which can be a particular challenge for the clinical rheumatologist seeking to clinically apply GRSs. This review provides a framework by which the clinician may systematically evaluate a GRS.

FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

As genotyping becomes more accessible and cost-effective, it will become increasingly important to recognize the clinical applicability of GRSs and identify those of the highest utility for patient care. This framework for the evaluation of a GRS will also help ensure reliability among GRS research in rheumatology, thereby helping to advance the field.

Natural selection acting on complex traits hampers the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores in ancient samples

The prediction of phenotypes from ancient humans has gained interest due to its potential to investigate the evolution of complex traits. These predictions are commonly performed using polygenic scores computed with DNA information from ancient humans along with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) data from present-day humans. However, numerous evolutionary processes could impact the prediction of phenotypes from ancient humans based on polygenic scores. In this work we investigate how natural selection impacts phenotypic predictions on ancient individuals using polygenic scores. We use simulations of an additive trait to analyze how natural selection impacts phenotypic predictions with polygenic scores. We simulate a trait evolving under neutrality, stabilizing selection and directional selection. We find that stabilizing and directional selection have contrasting effects on ancient phenotypic predictions. Stabilizing selection accelerates the loss of large-effect alleles contributing to trait variation. Conversely, directional selection accelerates the loss of small and large-effect alleles that drive individuals farther away from the optimal phenotypic value. These effects result in specific shared genetic variation patterns between ancient and modern populations which hamper the accuracy of polygenic scores to predict phenotypes. Furthermore, we conducted simulations that include realistic strengths of stabilizing selection and heritability estimates to show how natural selection could impact the predictive accuracy of ancient polygenic scores for two widely studied traits: height and body mass index. We emphasize the importance of considering how natural selection can decrease the reliability of ancient polygenic scores to perform phenotypic predictions on an ancient population.

Heritability of complex traits in sub-populations experiencing bottlenecks and growth

Populations that have experienced a bottleneck are regularly used in Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS) to investigate variants associated with complex traits. It is generally understood that these isolated sub-populations may experience high frequency of otherwise rare variants with large effect size, and therefore provide a unique opportunity to study said trait. However, the demographic history of the population under investigation affects all SNPs that determine the complex trait genome-wide, changing its heritability and genetic architecture. We use a simulation based approach to identify the impact of the demographic processes of drift, expansion, and migration on the heritability of complex trait. We show that demography has considerable impact on complex traits. We then investigate the power to resolve heritability of complex traits in GWAS studies subjected to demographic effects. We find that demography is an important component for interpreting inference of complex traits and has a nuanced impact on the power of GWAS. We conclude that demographic histories need to be explicitly modelled to properly quantify the history of selection on a complex trait.

The genetic changes that shaped Neandertals, Denisovans, and modern humans

Modern human ancestors diverged from the ancestors of Neandertals and Denisovans about 600,000 years ago. Until about 40,000 years ago, these three groups existed in parallel, occasionally met, and exchanged genes. A critical question is why modern humans, and not the other two groups, survived, became numerous, and developed complex cultures. Here, we discuss genetic differences among the groups and some of their functional consequences. As more present-day genome sequences become available from diverse groups, we predict that very few, if any, differences will distinguish all modern humans from all Neandertals and Denisovans. We propose that the genetic basis of what constitutes a modern human is best thought of as a combination of genetic features, where perhaps none of them is present in each and every present-day individual.

More than a decade of genetic research on the Denisovans

Denisovans, a group of now extinct humans who lived in Eastern Eurasia in the Middle and Late Pleistocene, were first identified from DNA sequences just over a decade ago. Only ten fragmentary remains from two sites have been attributed to Denisovans based entirely on molecular information. Nevertheless, there has been great interest in using genetic data to understand Denisovans and their place in human history. From the reconstruction of a single high-quality genome, it has been possible to infer their population history, including events of admixture with other human groups. Additionally, the identification of Denisovan DNA in the genomes of present-day individuals has provided insights into the timing and routes of dispersal of ancient modern humans into Asia and Oceania, as well as the contributions of archaic DNA to the physiology of present-day people. In this Review, we synthesize more than a decade of research on Denisovans, reconcile controversies and summarize insights into their population history and phenotype. We also highlight how our growing knowledge about Denisovans has provided insights into our own evolutionary history.

Onco-Breastomics: An Eco-Evo-Devo Holistic Approach

Known as a diverse collection of neoplastic diseases, breast cancer (BC) can be hyperbolically characterized as a dynamic pseudo-organ, a living organism able to build a complex, open, hierarchically organized, self-sustainable, and self-renewable tumor system, a population, a species, a local community, a biocenosis, or an evolving dynamical ecosystem (i.e., immune or metabolic ecosystem) that emphasizes both developmental continuity and spatio-temporal change. Moreover, a cancer cell community, also known as an oncobiota, has been described as non-sexually reproducing species, as well as a migratory or invasive species that expresses intelligent behavior, or an endangered or parasite species that fights to survive, to optimize its features inside the host's ecosystem, or that is able to exploit or to disrupt its host circadian cycle for improving the own proliferation and spreading. BC tumorigenesis has also been compared with the early embryo and placenta development that may suggest new strategies for research and therapy. Furthermore, BC has also been characterized as an environmental disease or as an ecological disorder. Many mechanisms of cancer progression have been explained by principles of ecology, developmental biology, and evolutionary paradigms. Many authors have discussed ecological, developmental, and evolutionary strategies for more successful anti-cancer therapies, or for understanding the ecological, developmental, and evolutionary bases of BC exploitable vulnerabilities. Herein, we used the integrated framework of three well known ecological theories: the Bronfenbrenner's theory of human development, the Vannote's River Continuum Concept (RCC), and the Ecological Evolutionary Developmental Biology (Eco-Evo-Devo) theory, to explain and understand several eco-evo-devo-based principles that govern BC progression. Multi-omics fields, taken together as onco-breastomics, offer better opportunities to integrate, analyze, and interpret large amounts of complex heterogeneous data, such as various and big-omics data obtained by multiple investigative modalities, for understanding the eco-evo-devo-based principles that drive BC progression and treatment. These integrative eco-evo-devo theories can help clinicians better diagnose and treat BC, for example, by using non-invasive biomarkers in liquid-biopsies that have emerged from integrated omics-based data that accurately reflect the biomolecular landscape of the primary tumor in order to avoid mutilating preventive surgery, like bilateral mastectomy. From the perspective of preventive, personalized, and participatory medicine, these hypotheses may help patients to think about this disease as a process governed by natural rules, to understand the possible causes of the disease, and to gain control on their own health.

Genetic history of Cambridgeshire before and after the Black Death

The extent of the devastation of the Black Death pandemic (1346-1353) on European populations is known from documentary sources and its bacterial source illuminated by studies of ancient pathogen DNA. What has remained less understood is the effect of the pandemic on human mobility and genetic diversity at the local scale. Here, we report 275 ancient genomes, including 109 with coverage >0.1×, from later medieval and postmedieval Cambridgeshire of individuals buried before and after the Black Death. Consistent with the function of the institutions, we found a lack of close relatives among the friars and the inmates of the hospital in contrast to their abundance in general urban and rural parish communities. While we detect long-term shifts in local genetic ancestry in Cambridgeshire, we find no evidence of major changes in genetic ancestry nor higher differentiation of immune loci between cohorts living before and after the Black Death.

G-quadruplexes in the evolution of hepatitis B virus

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is one of the most dangerous human pathogenic viruses found in all corners of the world. Recent sequencing of ancient HBV viruses revealed that these viruses have accompanied humanity for several millenia. As G-quadruplexes are considered to be potential therapeutic targets in virology, we examined G-quadruplex-forming sequences (PQS) in modern and ancient HBV genomes. Our analyses showed the presence of PQS in all 232 tested HBV genomes, with a total number of 1258 motifs and an average frequency of 1.69 PQS per kbp. Notably, the PQS with the highest G4Hunter score in the reference genome is the most highly conserved. Interestingly, the density of PQS motifs is lower in ancient HBV genomes than in their modern counterparts (1.5 and 1.9/kb, respectively). This modern frequency of 1.90 is very close to the PQS frequency of the human genome (1.93) using identical parameters. This indicates that the PQS content in HBV increased over time to become closer to the PQS frequency in the human genome. No statistically significant differences were found between PQS densities in HBV lineages found in different continents. These results, which constitute the first paleogenomics analysis of G4 propensity, are in agreement with our hypothesis that, for viruses causing chronic infections, their PQS frequencies tend to converge evolutionarily with those of their hosts, as a kind of 'genetic camouflage' to both hijack host cell transcriptional regulatory systems and to avoid recognition as foreign material.

Moving beyond the adaptationist paradigm for human evolution, and why it matters

The Journal of Human Evolution (JHE) was founded 50 years ago when much of the foundation for how we think about human evolution was in place or being put in place, providing the main framework for how we consider our origins today. Here, we will explore historical developments, including early JHE outputs, as they relate to our understanding of the relationship between phenotypic variation and evolutionary process, and use that as a springboard for considering our current understanding of these links as applied to human evolution. We will focus specifically on how the study of variation itself has shifted us away from taxonomic and adaptationist perspectives toward a richer understanding of the processes shaping human evolutionary history, using literature searches and specific test cases to highlight this. We argue that natural selection, gene exchange, genetic drift, and mutation should not be considered individually when considering the production of hominin diversity. In this context, we offer suggestions for future research directions and reflect on this more complex understanding of human evolution and its broader relevance to society. Finally, we end by considering authorship demographics and practices in the last 50 years within JHE and how a shift in these demographics has the potential to reshape the science of human evolution going forward.

Modeling the spatiotemporal spread of beneficial alleles using ancient genomes

Ancient genome sequencing technologies now provide the opportunity to study natural selection in unprecedented detail. Rather than making inferences from indirect footprints left by selection in present-day genomes, we can directly observe whether a given allele was present or absent in a particular region of the world at almost any period of human history within the last 10,000 years. Methods for studying selection using ancient genomes often rely on partitioning individuals into discrete time periods or regions of the world. However, a complete understanding of natural selection requires more nuanced statistical methods which can explicitly model allele frequency changes in a continuum across space and time. Here we introduce a method for inferring the spread of a beneficial allele across a landscape using two-dimensional partial differential equations. Unlike previous approaches, our framework can handle time-stamped ancient samples, as well as genotype likelihoods and pseudohaploid sequences from low-coverage genomes. We apply the method to a panel of published ancient West Eurasian genomes to produce dynamic maps showcasing the inferred spread of candidate beneficial alleles over time and space. We also provide estimates for the strength of selection and diffusion rate for each of these alleles. Finally, we highlight possible avenues of improvement for accurately tracing the spread of beneficial alleles in more complex scenarios.

Missing data in bioarchaeology II: A test of ordinal and continuous data imputation

OBJECTIVES

Previous research has shown that while missing data are common in bioarchaeological studies, they are seldom handled using statistically rigorous methods. The primary objective of this article is to evaluate the ability of imputation to manage missing data and encourage the use of advanced statistical methods in bioarchaeology and paleopathology. An overview of missing data management in biological anthropology is provided, followed by a test of imputation and deletion methods for handling missing data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Missing data were simulated on complete datasets of ordinal (n = 287) and continuous (n = 369) bioarchaeological data. Missing values were imputed using five imputation methods (mean, predictive mean matching, random forest, expectation maximization, and stochastic regression) and the success of each at obtaining the parameters of the original dataset compared with pairwise and listwise deletion.

RESULTS

In all instances, listwise deletion was least successful at approximating the original parameters. Imputation of continuous data was more effective than ordinal data. Overall, no one method performed best and the amount of missing data proved a stronger predictor of imputation success.

DISCUSSION

These findings support the use of imputation methods over deletion for handling missing bioarchaeological and paleopathology data, especially when the data are continuous. Whereas deletion methods reduce sample size, imputation maintains sample size, improving statistical power and preventing bias from being introduced into the dataset.

Population differentiation of polygenic score predictions under stabilizing selection

Given the many small-effect loci uncovered by genome-wide association studies (GWAS), polygenic scores have become central to genomic medicine, and have found application in diverse settings including evolutionary studies of adaptation. Despite their promise, polygenic scores have been found to suffer from limited portability across human populations. This at first seems in conflict with the observation that most common genetic variation is shared among populations. We investigate one potential cause of this discrepancy: stabilizing selection on complex traits. Counterintuitively, while stabilizing selection constrains phenotypic evolution, it accelerates the loss and fixation of alleles underlying trait variation within populations (GWAS loci). Thus even when populations share an optimum phenotype, stabilizing selection erodes the variance contributed by their shared GWAS loci, such that predictions from GWAS in one population explain less of the phenotypic variation in another. We develop theory to quantify how stabilizing selection is expected to reduce the prediction accuracy of polygenic scores in populations not represented in GWAS samples. In addition, we find that polygenic scores can substantially overstate average genetic differences of phenotypes among populations. We emphasize stabilizing selection around a common optimum as a useful null model to connect patterns of allele frequency and polygenic score differentiation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Celebrating 50 years since Lewontin's apportionment of human diversity'.

Inferring Signatures of Positive Selection in Whole-Genome Sequencing Data: An Overview of Haplotype-Based Methods

Signatures of positive selection in the genome are a characteristic mark of adaptation that can reveal an ongoing, recent, or ancient response to environmental change throughout the evolution of a population. New sources of food, climate conditions, and exposure to pathogens are only some of the possible sources of selective pressure, and the rise of advantageous genetic variants is a crucial determinant of survival and reproduction. In this context, the ability to detect these signatures of selection may pinpoint genetic variants that are responsible for a significant change in gene regulation, gene expression, or protein synthesis, structure, and function. This review focuses on statistical methods that take advantage of linkage disequilibrium and haplotype determination to reveal signatures of positive selection in whole-genome sequencing data, showing that they emerge from different descriptions of the same underlying event. Moreover, considerations are provided around the application of these statistics to different species, their suitability for ancient DNA, and the usefulness of discovering variants under selection for biomedicine and public health in an evolutionary medicine framework.

Predicting Archaic Hominin Phenotypes from Genomic Data

Ancient DNA provides a powerful window into the biology of extant and extinct species, including humans' closest relatives: Denisovans and Neanderthals. Here, we review what is known about archaic hominin phenotypes from genomic data and how those inferences have been made. We contend that understanding the influence of variants on lower-level molecular phenotypes-such as gene expression and protein function-is a promising approach to using ancient DNA to learn about archaic hominin traits. Molecular phenotypes have simpler genetic architectures than organism-level complex phenotypes, and this approach enables moving beyond association studies by proposing hypotheses about the effects of archaic variants that are testable in model systems. The major challenge to understanding archaic hominin phenotypes is broadening our ability to accurately map genotypes to phenotypes, but ongoing advances ensure that there will be much more to learn about archaic hominin phenotypes from their genomes. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Genomics and Human Genetics, Volume 23 is October 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

An integrative skeletal and paleogenomic analysis of stature variation suggests relatively reduced health for early European farmers

Human culture, biology, and health were shaped dramatically by the onset of agriculture ∼12,000 y B.P. This shift is hypothesized to have resulted in increased individual fitness and population growth as evidenced by archaeological and population genomic data alongside a decline in physiological health as inferred from skeletal remains. Here, we consider osteological and ancient DNA data from the same prehistoric individuals to study human stature variation as a proxy for health across a transition to agriculture. Specifically, we compared “predicted” genetic contributions to height from paleogenomic data and “achieved” adult osteological height estimated from long bone measurements for 167 individuals across Europe spanning the Upper Paleolithic to Iron Age (∼38,000 to 2,400 B.P.). We found that individuals from the Neolithic were shorter than expected (given their individual polygenic height scores) by an average of −3.82 cm relative to individuals from the Upper Paleolithic and Mesolithic (P = 0.040) and −2.21 cm shorter relative to post-Neolithic individuals (P = 0.068), with osteological vs. expected stature steadily increasing across the Copper (+1.95 cm relative to the Neolithic), Bronze (+2.70 cm), and Iron (+3.27 cm) Ages. These results were attenuated when we additionally accounted for genome-wide genetic ancestry variation: for example, with Neolithic individuals −2.82 cm shorter than expected on average relative to pre-Neolithic individuals (P = 0.120). We also incorporated observations of paleopathological indicators of nonspecific stress that can persist from childhood to adulthood in skeletal remains into our model. Overall, our work highlights the potential of integrating disparate datasets to explore proxies of health in prehistory.

Tracing the Evolution of Human Gene Regulation and Its Association with Shifts in Environment

As humans populated the world, they adapted to many varying environmental factors, including climate, diet, and pathogens. Because many of these adaptations were mediated by multiple noncoding variants with small effects on gene regulation, it has been difficult to link genomic signals of selection to specific genes, and to describe the regulatory response to selection. To overcome this challenge, we adapted PrediXcan, a machine learning method for imputing gene regulation from genotype data, to analyze low-coverage ancient human DNA (aDNA). First, we used simulated genomes to benchmark strategies for adapting PrediXcan to increase robustness to incomplete data. Applying the resulting models to 490 ancient Eurasians, we found that genes with the strongest divergent regulation among ancient populations with hunter-gatherer, pastoralist, and agricultural lifestyles are enriched for metabolic and immune functions. Next, we explored the contribution of divergent gene regulation to two traits with strong evidence of recent adaptation: dietary metabolism and skin pigmentation. We found enrichment for divergent regulation among genes proposed to be involved in diet-related local adaptation, and the predicted effects on regulation often suggest explanations for known signals of selection, for example, at FADS1, GPX1, and LEPR. In contrast, skin pigmentation genes show little regulatory change over a 38,000-year time series of 2,999 ancient Europeans, suggesting that adaptation mainly involved large-effect coding variants. This work demonstrates that combining aDNA with present-day genomes is informative about the biological differences among ancient populations, the role of gene regulation in adaptation, and the relationship between genetic diversity and complex traits.