Presurgical Screening Improves Risk Prediction for Delirium in Elective Surgery of Older Patients: The PAWEL RISK Study

Preoperative Delirium Risk Screening in Patients Undergoing a Cardiac Surgery: Results from the Prospective Observational FINDERI Study

OBJECTIVE

Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common complication of cardiac surgery that is associated with higher morbidity, longer hospital stay, cognitive decline, and mortality. Preoperative assessments may help to identify patients´ POD risk. However, a standardized screening assessment for POD risk has not been established.

DESIGN

Prospective observational FINd DElirium RIsk factors (FINDERI) study.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥50 years undergoing cardiac surgery.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary aim was to analyze the predictive value of the Delirium Risk Screening Questionnaire (DRSQ) prior to cardiac surgery. Secondary aims are to investigate cognitive, frailty, and geriatric assessments, and to use data-driven machine learning (ML) in predicting POD. Predictive properties were assessed using receiver operating characteristics analysis and multivariate approaches (regularized LASSO regression and decision trees).

RESULTS

We analyzed a data set of 504 patients (68.3 ± 8.2 years, 21.4% women) who underwent cardiac surgery. The incidence of POD was 21%. The preoperatively administered DRSQ showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.62, 0.73), and the predictive OR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.15, 1.35, p <0.001). Using a ML approach, a three-rule decision tree prediction model including DRSQ (score>7), Trail Making Test B (time>118), and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (score ≤ 22) was identified. The AUC of the three-rule decision tree on the training set was 0.69 (95% CI 0.63, 0.75) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51, 0.73) on the validation set.

CONCLUSION

Both the DRSQ and the three-rule decision tree might be helpful in predicting POD risk before cardiac surgery.

Introducing a machine learning algorithm for delirium prediction-the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI project (SURGE-Ahead)

INTRODUCTION

Post-operative delirium (POD) is a common complication in older patients, with an incidence of 14-56%. To implement preventative procedures, it is necessary to identify patients at risk for POD. In the present study, we aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model for POD prediction in older patients, in close cooperation with the PAWEL (patient safety, cost-effectiveness and quality of life in elective surgery) project.

METHODS

The model was trained on the PAWEL study's dataset of 878 patients (no intervention, age ≥ 70, 209 with POD). Presence of POD was determined by the Confusion Assessment Method and a chart review. We selected 15 features based on domain knowledge, ethical considerations and a recursive feature elimination. A logistic regression and a linear support vector machine (SVM) were trained, and evaluated using receiver operator characteristics (ROC).

RESULTS

The selected features were American Society of Anesthesiologists score, multimorbidity, cut-to-suture time, estimated glomerular filtration rate, polypharmacy, use of cardio-pulmonary bypass, the Montreal cognitive assessment subscores 'memory', 'orientation' and 'verbal fluency', pre-existing dementia, clinical frailty scale, age, recent falls, post-operative isolation and pre-operative benzodiazepines. The linear SVM performed best, with an ROC area under the curve of 0.82 [95% CI 0.78-0.85] in the training set, 0.81 [95% CI 0.71-0.88] in the test set and 0.76 [95% CI 0.71-0.79] in a cross-centre validation.

CONCLUSION

We present a clinically useful and explainable ML model for POD prediction. The model will be deployed in the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI project.

Predictive value of the geriatric nutrition risk index for postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery

AIMS

The aims of the study were to determine the relationship between preoperative geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and the occurrence of postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly patients after cardiac surgery and to evaluate the additive value of GNRI for predicting POD.

METHODS

The data were extracted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database. Patients who underwent cardiac surgery and were aged 65 or older were included. The relationship between preoperative GNRI and POD was investigated using logistic regression. We determined the added predictive value of preoperative GNRI for POD by measuring the changes in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calculating the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

A total of 4286 patients were included in the study, and 659 (16.1%) developed POD. Patients with POD had significantly lower GNRI scores than patients without POD (median 111.1 vs. 113.4, p < 0.001). Malnourished patients (GNRI ≤ 98) had a significantly higher risk of POD (odds ratio, 1.83, 90% CI, 1.42-2.34, p < 0.001) than those without malnutrition (GNRI > 98). This correlation remains after adjusting for confounding variables. The addition of GNRI to the multivariable models slightly but not significantly increases the AUCs (all p > 0.05). Incorporating GNRI increases NRIs in some models and IDIs in all models (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed a negative association between preoperative GNRI and POD in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The addition of GNRI to POD prediction models may improve their predictive accuracy. However, these findings were based on a single-center cohort and will need to be validated in future studies involving multiple centers.

[Update on the diagnosis and treatment of delirium]

Delirium is an acute confusional state with typically fluctuating disturbances of attention, cognition, and qualitative awareness. Its incidence depends on the patient group. In the development of delirium, predisposing factors such as age, frailty, multimorbidity, surgical interventions, and pre-existing dementia are of high clinical relevance. The diagnosis of delirium should be based on symptoms and validated screening methods (e.g., Confusion Assessment Method). As delirium is a direct physiological consequence of a medical condition, the potential underlying cause(s) should be diagnosed. Prevention and therapy are primarily multimodal, non-pharmacological treatments such as reorientation, early mobilization, and sleep improvement. If symptomatic pharmacological treatment is necessary (e.g., due to delirium-related agitation), careful drug selection should be made depending on the patient population and symptoms.

The relationship between pre-surgery self-rated health and changes in functional and mental health in older adults: insights from a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Elective surgeries are among the most common health stressors in later life and put a significant risk at functional and mental health, making them an important target of research into healthy aging and physical resilience. Large-scale longitudinal research mostly conducted in non-clinical samples provided support of the predictive value of self-rated health (SRH) for both functional and mental health. Thus, SRH may have the potential to predict favorable adaptation processes after significant health stressors, that is, physical resilience. So far, a study examining the interplay between SRH, functional and mental health and their relative importance for health changes in the context of health stressors was missing. The present study aimed at addressing this gap.

METHODS

We used prospective data of 1,580 inpatients (794 complete cases) aged 70 years or older of the PAWEL study, collected between October 2017 and May 2019 in Germany. Our analyses were based on SRH, functional health (Barthel Index) and self-reported mental health problems (PHQ-4) before and 12 months after major elective surgery. To examine changes and interrelationships in these health indicators, bivariate latent change score (BLCS) models were applied.

RESULTS

Our analyses provided evidence for improvements of SRH, functional and mental health from pre-to-post surgery. BLCS models based on complete cases and the total sample pointed to a complex interplay of SRH, functional health and mental health with bidirectional coupling effects. Better pre-surgery SRH was associated with improvements in functional and mental health, and better pre-surgery functional health and mental health were associated with improvements in SRH from pre-to-post surgery. Effects of pre-surgery SRH on changes in functional health were smaller than those of functional health on changes in SRH.

CONCLUSIONS

Meaningful changes of SRH, functional and mental health and their interplay could be depicted for the first time in a clinical setting. Our findings provide preliminary support for SRH as a physical resilience factor being associated with improvements in other health indicators after health stressors. Longitudinal studies with more timepoints are needed to fully understand the predictive value of SRH for multidimensional health.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PAWEL study, German Clinical Trials Register, number DRKS00013311. Registered 10 November 2017 - Retrospectively registered, https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00013311 .

Delirium in the intensive care unit and its importance in the post-operative context: A review

The burden of delirium in the intensive care setting is a global priority. Delirium affects up to 80% of patients in intensive care units; an episode of delirium is often distressing to patients and their families, and delirium in patients within, or outside of, the intensive care unit (ICU) setting is associated with poor outcomes. In the short term, such poor outcomes include longer stay in intensive care, longer hospital stay, increased risk of other hospital-acquired complications, and increased risk of hospital mortality. Longer term sequelae include cognitive impairment and functional dependency. While medical category of admission may be a risk factor for poor outcomes in critical care populations, outcomes for surgical ICU admissions are also poor, with dependency at hospital discharge exceeding 30% and increased risk of in-hospital mortality, particularly in vulnerable groups, with high-risk procedures, and resource-scarce settings. A practical approach to delirium prevention and management in the ICU setting is likely to require a multi-faceted approach. Given the good evidence for the prevention of delirium among older post-operative outside of the intensive care setting, simple non-pharmacological interventions should be effective among older adults post-operatively who are cared for in the intensive care setting. In response to this, the future ICU environment will have a range of organizational and distinct environmental characteristics that are directly targeted at preventing delirium.

Cognitive screening in persons with an amputation: A retrospective medical record audit

OBJECTIVE

To determine the rate of cognitive screening undertaken with patients undergoing amputation and to determine the demographics of the sample.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective medical record audit.

METHODS

The medical records of a convenience sample of persons who had undergone amputation, upper and lower limb, from one local health district were reviewed. The sample date range was between January 1st, 2017, and December 31st, 2018. The incidence and type of cognitive screening were also recorded. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the results.

RESULTS

A total of 178 episodes of amputation care were identified during retrospective medical record auditing (mean age, 69.7 years). Thirty nine of the 178 (21.9%) episodes of care had a cognitive screening measure completed during that inpatient admission (24.2% vascular etiology and 12% nonvascular etiology). All cognitive screens were completed in persons with lower-limb amputations and were completed postoperatively.

CONCLUSION

Cognitive screening is not a routine part of the health care journey for patients with an amputation in this health care district.

Risk factors for postoperative delirium in elderly urological patients: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Avoiding postoperative delirium (POD) can have a significant detrimental effect on the rehabilitation and prognosis of elderly urological patients. It is necessary to explore the risk factors associated with POD in elderly urology to provide a basis for clinical recognition of delirium.

METHODS

For relevant studies, we comprehensively searched Embase, MEDLINE, Ovid, PubMed, Scopus, The Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. The search deadline was September 2021.

RESULTS

We identified 2046 studies, 8 of which were included in the ultimate analysis. A total of 8 articles, including 356 cases in the delirium group and 1813 cases in the non-delirium group, were included in the relevant literature. The 2 groups mentioned above differed significantly in the following factors: history of delirium (odds ratio [OR] = 6.98, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.63-29.86, P = .009); Preoperative use of psychotropic drugs (OR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.11-3.52, P = .02); age (OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 2.08-4.12, P < .0001). The meta-analysis demonstrated that smoking, alcohol consumption, gender (male), mode of anesthesia (general anesthesia) and being unmarried did not have a significant effect on POD in elderly urological patients.

CONCLUSION

The risk factors for POD in elderly urological patients include history of delirium, preoperative use of psychotropic drugs, and age. The present study provides guidance for taking targeted preventive measures to reduce risks.

Risk assessment of perioperative neurocognitive disorders, where are we now?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Perioperative neurocognitive disorders (PNDs) are among the most frequent complications after surgery and are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. We analysed the recent literature regarding risk assessment of PND.

RECENT FINDINGS

Certain genetic variants of the cholinergic receptor muscarinic 2 and 4, as well as a marked degree of frailty but not the kind of anaesthesia (general or spinal) are associated with the risk to develop postoperative delirium (POD). Models predict POD with a discriminative power, for example, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve between 0.52 and 0.94.

SUMMARY

Advanced age as well as preexisting cognitive, functional and sensory deficits remain to be the main risk factors for the development of PND. Therefore, aged patients should be routinely examined for both preexisting and new developing deficits, as recommended in international guidelines. Appropriate tests should have a high discrimination rate, be feasible to be administered by staff that do not require excessive training, and only take a short time to be practical for a busy outpatient clinic. Models to predict PND, should be validated appropriately (and externally if possible) and should not contain a too large number of predictors to prevent overfitting of models.

Anticholinergic Drug Exposure Increases the Risk of Delirium in Older Patients Undergoing Elective Surgery

Introduction

Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and serious adverse event of surgery in older people. Because of its great impact on patients' safety and quality of life, identification of modifiable risk factors could be useful. Although preoperative medication intake is assumed to be an important modifiable risk factor, the impact of anticholinergic drugs on the occurrence of POD seems underestimated in elective surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between preoperative anticholinergic burden and POD. We hypothesized that a high preoperative anticholinergic burden is an independent, potentially modifiable predisposing and precipitating factor of POD in older people.

Methods

Between November 2017 and April 2019, 1,470 patients of 70 years and older undergoing elective orthopedic, general, cardiac, or vascular surgery were recruited in the randomized, prospective, multicenter PAWEL trial. Anticholinergic burden of a sub-cohort of 899 patients, who did not receive a multimodal intervention for preventing POD, was assessed by two different tools at hospital admission: The established Anticholinergic Risk Scale (ARS) and the recently developed Anticholinergic Burden Score (ABS). POD was detected by confusion assessment method (CAM) and a validated post discharge medical record review. Logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between anticholinergic burden and POD.

Results

POD was observed in 210 of 899 patients (23.4%). Both ARS and ABS were independently associated with POD. The association persisted after adjustment for relevant confounding factors such as age, sex, comorbidities, preoperative cognitive and physical status, number of prescribed drugs, surgery time, type of surgery and anesthesia, usage of heart-lung-machine, and treatment in intensive care unit. If a patient was taking one of the 56 drugs listed in the ABS, risk for POD was 2.7-fold higher (OR = 2.74, 95% CI = 1.55–4.94) and 1.5-fold higher per additional point on the ARS (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.15–2.02).

Conclusion

Preoperative anticholinergic drug exposure measured by ARS or ABS was independently associated with POD in older patients undergoing elective surgery. Therefore, identification, discontinuation or substitution of anticholinergic medication prior to surgery may be a promising approach to reduce the risk of POD in older patients.

Prospective Analysis Between Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio on Admission and Development of Delirium Among Older Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19

Objective: To examine any prospective association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) at hospital admission and subsequent delirium in older COVID-19 hospitalized patients comparing by sex and age groups. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,785 COVID-19 adult inpatients (minimum sample size required of 635 participants) admitted to a public general hospital in Madrid (Spain) between March 16th and April 15th, 2020. Variables were obtained from electronic health records. Binary logistic regression models were performed between baseline NLR and delirium adjusting for age, sex, medical comorbidity, current illness severity, serious mental illness history and use of chloroquine and dexamethasone. An NLR cut-off was identified, and stratified analyses were performed by age and sex. Also, another biomarker was tested as an exposure (the systemic immune-inflammation index -SII). Results: 55.3% of the patients were men, with a mean age of 66.8 years. Roughly 13% of the patients had delirium during hospitalization. NLR on admission predicted subsequent delirium development (adjusted OR = 1.02, 95 percent CI: 1.00-1.04, p = 0.024). Patients between 69 and 80 years with NLR values > 6.3 presented a twofold increased risk for delirium (p = 0.004). There were no sex differences in the association between baseline NLR and delirium (p > 0.05) nor SII predicted delirium development (p = 0.341). Conclusion: NLR is a good predictor of delirium during hospitalization, especially among older adults, independently of medical comorbidity, illness severity, and other covariates. Routine blood tests on admission might provide valuable information to guide the decision-making process to be followed with these especially vulnerable patients.

[Nonpharmaceutical concepts for prevention and treatment of delirium]

BACKGROUND

Cognitive impairment is common among older patients in German hospitals (40%). Dementia, other brain diseases and frailty significantly increase the risk of delirium and pose great challenges to interdisciplinary and interprofessional teams. Delirium prevention is achievable but requires complex interdepartmental strategies with specific components for timely recognition of the individual delirium risk, to carry out structured and sustained implementation of appropriate measures for delirium prevention as well as prompt etiological diagnostics and immediate treatment when delirium occurs.

OBJECTIVE

The present work aims to shed light on the role of interprofessional and interdisciplinary collaboration in evidence-based, nonpharmacological delirium prevention programs.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Narrative review of international best practice programs.

RESULTS

Nonpharmacological prevention of delirium is effective but requires differentiated risk identification, regular delirium screening and daily targeted cognitive activation and sleep promotion. This can only be achieved in close interprofessional collaboration and is mostly carried out interdepartmentally by specialized teams.

DISCUSSION

Interprofessional multicomponent programs for delirium prevention hold the potential to reduce delirium and complication rates in older high-risk patients in regular care, thereby improving treatment and long-term quality of life. Additional interprofessional delirium prevention teams are deployed in different settings simultaneously and provide regular training on optimal delirium management. Demonstration of the effectiveness of cross-setting programs requires large multicenter studies and is therefore particularly laborious.