Causes of Death After Colorectal Cancer Diagnosis: A Population-Based Study

Avoiding lead-time bias by estimating stage-specific proportions of cancer and non-cancer deaths

PURPOSE

Understanding how stage at cancer diagnosis influences cause of death, an endpoint that is not susceptible to lead-time bias, can inform population-level outcomes of cancer screening.

METHODS

Using data from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for 1,154,515 persons aged 50-84 years at cancer diagnosis in 2006-2010, we evaluated proportional causes of death by cancer type and uniformly classified stage, following or extrapolating all patients until death through 2020.

RESULTS

Most cancer patients diagnosed at stages I-II did not go on to die from their index cancer, whereas most patients diagnosed at stage IV did. For patients diagnosed with any cancer at stages I-II, an estimated 26% of deaths were due to the index cancer, 63% due to non-cancer causes, and 12% due to a subsequent primary (non-index) cancer. In contrast, for patients diagnosed with any stage IV cancer, 85% of deaths were attributed to the index cancer, with 13% non-cancer and 2% non-index-cancer deaths. Index cancer mortality from stages I-II cancer was proportionally lowest for thyroid, melanoma, uterus, prostate, and breast, and highest for pancreas, liver, esophagus, lung, and stomach.

CONCLUSION

Across all cancer types, the percentage of patients who went on to die from their cancer was over three times greater when the cancer was diagnosed at stage IV than stages I-II. As mortality patterns are not influenced by lead-time bias, these data suggest that earlier detection is likely to improve outcomes across cancer types, including those currently unscreened.

Post-diagnosis dietary factors, supplement use and colorectal cancer prognosis: A Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) systematic literature review and meta-analysis

The role of diet in colorectal cancer prognosis is not well understood and specific lifestyle recommendations are lacking. We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and longitudinal observational studies on post-diagnosis dietary factors, supplement use and colorectal cancer survival outcomes in PubMed and Embase from inception until 28th February 2022. Random-effects dose-response meta-analyses were conducted when at least three studies had sufficient information. The evidence was interpreted and graded by the CUP Global independent Expert Committee on Cancer Survivorship and Expert Panel. Five RCTs and 35 observational studies were included (30,242 cases, over 8700 all-cause and 2100 colorectal cancer deaths, 3700 progression, recurrence, or disease-free events). Meta-analyses, including 3-10 observational studies each, were conducted for: whole grains, nuts/peanuts, red and processed meat, dairy products, sugary drinks, artificially sweetened beverages, coffee, alcohol, dietary glycaemic load/index, insulin load/index, marine omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, supplemental calcium, circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) and all-cause mortality; for alcohol, supplemental calcium, circulating 25(OH)D and colorectal cancer-specific mortality; and for circulating 25(OH)D and recurrence/disease-free survival. The overall evidence was graded as 'limited'. The inverse associations between healthy dietary and/or lifestyle patterns (including diets that comprised plant-based foods), whole grains, total, caffeinated, or decaffeinated coffee and all-cause mortality and the positive associations between unhealthy dietary patterns, sugary drinks and all-cause mortality provided 'limited-suggestive' evidence. All other exposure-outcome associations provided 'limited-no conclusion' evidence. Additional, well-conducted cohort studies and carefully designed RCTs are needed to develop specific lifestyle recommendations for colorectal cancer survivors.

Increased Risk of Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Patients with Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Propensity-Matched Analysis

Background/Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the association between colorectal cancer (CRC) and the risk of breakthrough respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in vaccinated patients with CRC. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used the TriNetX research network to identify vaccinated patients with CRC. Patients were matched using propensity score matching (PSM) and divided into patients with CRC and control (without history of CRC) groups. The primary outcome was the risk of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 in vaccinated patients. The secondary outcome was a composite of all-cause emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalization, and death during the follow-up period after the diagnosis of COVID-19. Results: A total of 15,416 vaccinated patients with CRC were identified and propensity matched with 15,416 vaccinated patients without CRC. Patients with CRC had a significantly increased risk for breakthrough infections compared to patients without CRC (aOR = 1.78; [95% CI: 1.47-2.15]). Patients with CRC were at increased risk of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections after two doses (aOR = 1.71; [95% CI: 1.42-2.06]) and three doses (aOR = 1.36; [95% CI: 1.09-1.69]) of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Vaccinated patients with CRC were at a lower risk of COVID-19 infection than unvaccinated CRC patients (aOR = 0.342; [95% CI: 0.289-0.404]). The overall composite outcome (all-cause ED visits, all-cause hospitalization, and all-cause death) was 51.6% for breakthrough infections, which was greater than 44.3% for propensity score-matched patients without CRC (aOR = 1.79; [95% CI: 1.29-2.47]). Conclusions: This cohort study showed significantly increased risks for breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection in vaccinated patients with CRC. Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in patients with CRC were associated with significant and substantial risks for hospitalizations.

Age-related Disparities in Pan-Cancer Mortality and Causes of Death: Analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Data

Comprehensive analysis of mortality and causes of death (COD) in cancers was of importance to conduct intervention strategies. The current study aimed to investigate the mortality rate and COD among cancers, and to explore the disparities between age. Initially, cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database were extracted. Then, frequencies and percentage of deaths, and mortality rate in different age groups were calculated. Meanwhile, age distribution of different COD across tumor types was illustrated while the standardized mortality ratios (SMR) stratified by age were calculated and visualized. A total of 2,670,403 death records were included and digestive system cancer (688,953 death cases) was the most common primary cancer type. The mortality rate increased by 5.6% annually in total death, 4.0% in cancer-specific death and 10.9% in non-cancer cause. As for cancer-specific death, the age distribution varied among different primary tumor types due to prone age and prognosis of cancer. The top five non-cancer causes in patients older than 50 were cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, other causes, COPD and associated conditions, diabetes as well as Alzheimer. The SMRs of these causes were higher among younger patients and gradually dropped in older age groups. Mortality and COD of cancer patients were heterogeneous in age group due to primary tumor types, prone age and prognosis of cancer. Our study conducted that non-cancer COD was a critical part in clinical practice as well as cancer-specific death. Individualized treatment and clinical intervention should be made after fully considering of the risk factor for death in different diagnosis ages and tumor types.

Risk of chronic liver disease and cirrhosis mortality among patients with digestive system cancers: a registry-based analysis

Non-cancer deaths are now becoming a great threat to the health of cancer survivors. There are no comprehensive and systematic reports on chronic liver disease and cirrhosis mortality (CLDCM) among patients with digestive system cancers (DSCs). This research aimed to quantitatively assess the risks and patterns of CLDCM among patients with DSCs. From the surveillance, epidemiology and end results (SEER) program, we extracted the data of patients diagnosed with DSCs between 2000 and 2017. Trends in incidence-based mortality rate (IBMR) were calculated using Joinpoint software. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was obtained based on the reference of the general United States population. The cumulative incidence function curves were constructed by all causes of death. Independent indicators were identified using the multivariate Fine and Gray competing risk model. We included 906,292 eligible patients from the SEER program, of which 3068 (0.34%) died from chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (CLDC). The IBMR of CLDC continued to increase during the study period [average annual percent change (APC): 6.7%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1-8.2] and the SMR was significantly increased (SMR: 3.19; 95% CI 3.08-3.30). The cumulative mortality of CLDC was the lowest in all causes of death. Furthermore, the age at diagnosis, race, gender, marital status, year of diagnosis, SEER stage, surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy were identified as independent indicators. Better screening, diagnostic and management approaches need to be implemented as a preferred method to protect the liver among patients with DSCs.

Relative Burden of Cancer and Noncancer Mortality Among Long-Term Survivors of Breast, Prostate, and Colorectal Cancer in the US

Importance

Improvements in cancer outcomes have led to a need to better understand long-term oncologic and nononcologic outcomes and quantify cancer-specific vs noncancer-specific mortality risks among long-term survivors.

Objective

To assess absolute and relative cancer-specific vs noncancer-specific mortality rates among long-term survivors of cancer, as well as associated risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included 627 702 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry with breast, prostate, or colorectal cancer who received a diagnosis between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2014, who received definitive treatment for localized disease and who were alive 5 years after their initial diagnosis (ie, long-term survivors of cancer). Statistical analysis was conducted from November 2022 to January 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Survival time ratios (TRs) were calculated using accelerated failure time models, and the primary outcome of interest examined was death from index cancer vs alternative (nonindex cancer) mortality across breast, prostate, colon, and rectal cancer cohorts. Secondary outcomes included subgroup mortality in cancer-specific risk groups, categorized based on prognostic factors, and proportion of deaths due to cancer-specific vs noncancer-specific causes. Independent variables included age, sex, race and ethnicity, income, residence, stage, grade, estrogen receptor status, progesterone receptor status, prostate-specific antigen level, and Gleason score. Follow-up ended in 2019.

Results

The study included 627 702 patients (mean [SD] age, 61.1 [12.3] years; 434 848 women [69.3%]): 364 230 with breast cancer, 118 839 with prostate cancer, and 144 633 with colorectal cancer who survived 5 years or more from an initial diagnosis of early-stage cancer. Factors associated with shorter median cancer-specific survival included stage III disease for breast cancer (TR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.53-0.55) and colorectal cancer (colon: TR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.58-0.62; rectal: TR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.74), as well as a Gleason score of 8 or higher for prostate cancer (TR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.58-0.63). For all cancer cohorts, patients at low risk had at least a 3-fold higher noncancer-specific mortality compared with cancer-specific mortality at 10 years of diagnosis. Patients at high risk had a higher cumulative incidence of cancer-specific mortality than noncancer-specific mortality in all cancer cohorts except prostate.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study is the first to date to examine competing oncologic and nononcologic risks focusing on long-term adult survivors of cancer. Knowledge of the relative risks facing long-term survivors may help provide pragmatic guidance to patients and clinicians regarding the importance of ongoing primary and oncologic-focused care.

Causes of death among early-onset colorectal cancer population in the United States: a large population-based study

Background

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) has an alarmingly increasing trend and arouses increasing attention. Causes of death in EOCRC population remain unclear.

Methods

Data of EOCRC patients (1975-2018) were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Distribution of death was calculated, and death risk of each cause was compared with the general population by calculating standard mortality ratios (SMRs) at different follow-up time. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were utilized to identify independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS).

Results

The study included 36,013 patients, among whom 9,998 (27.7%) patients died of colorectal cancer (CRC) and 6,305 (17.5%) patients died of non-CRC causes. CRC death accounted for a high proportion of 74.8%-90.7% death cases within 10 years, while non-CRC death (especially cardiocerebrovascular disease death) was the major cause of death after 10 years. Non-cancer death had the highest SMR in EOCRC population within the first year after cancer diagnosis. Kidney disease [SMR = 2.10; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.65-2.64] and infection (SMR = 1.92; 95% CI, 1.48-2.46) were two high-risk causes of death. Age at diagnosis, race, sex, year of diagnosis, grade, SEER stage, and surgery were independent prognostic factors for OS.

Conclusion

Most of EOCRC patients died of CRC within 10-year follow-up, while most of patients died of non-CRC causes after 10 years. Within the first year after cancer diagnosis, patients had high non-CRC death risk compared to the general population. Our findings help to guide risk monitoring and management for US EOCRC patients.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio can predict overall survival in patients with stage II to III colorectal cancer

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a prognostic inflammatory marker in colorectal cancer (CRC), however, little is known for its prognostic role in stage II to III CRC patients underwent curative resection. This study was aimed to investigate prognostic role of NLR in stage II to III CRC patients underwent surgery. Medical records of 1378 newly diagnosed CRC patients between June 2006 and March 2020 were reviewed. Data were collected by using electronic medical record software. Survival rate were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The cutoff values of NLR in stage II to III CRC patients were defined by maximally selected log-rank statistics. Multivariable cox proportional-hazard models were performed to find risk factors associated with overall survival (OS) in stage II to III CRC patients underwent surgery. Among 1378 CRC patients enrolled, 910 patients underwent surgery. In entire surgical cohort, age, body mass index (BMI), CEA, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9), lymphatic invasion, NLR, and albumin-to-globulin ratio (AGR) were found to be risk factors associated with OS (all P < .05). In stage II to III CRC patients underwent curative resection (n = 623), age, BMI, lymphatic invasion, AGR, and NLR were found to be risk factors associated with OS (all P < .05). In the multivariable analysis, CA 19-9 and lymphatic invasion were independent risk factors for OS in entire surgical cohort. In the multivariable analysis for the stage II to III CRC patients, age, BMI, lymphatic invasion and NLR (Hazard ratio = 2.41, 95% confidential interval [CI]: 1.04-5.595, P = .041) were independent risk factors for OS. NLR can be used as a clinically simple and useful parameter for predicting OS in stage II to III CRC patients undergoing curative resection, however, its optimal cutoff value should be further evaluated.

Higher risk of cardiovascular mortality than cancer mortality among long-term cancer survivors

Background

Previous studies focused more on the short-term risk of cardiovascular (CV) death due to traumatic psychological stress after a cancer diagnosis and the acute cardiotoxicity of anticancer treatments than on the long-term risk of CV death.

Methods

Time trends in the proportions of CV death (P_CV), cancer death (P_CA), and other causes in deaths from all causes were used to show preliminary relationships among the three causes of death in 4,806,064 patients with cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Competing mortality risk curves were used to investigate when the cumulative CV mortality rate (CMR_CV) began to outweigh the cumulative cancer mortality rate (CMR_CA) for patients with cancer who survived for more than 10 years. Multivariable competing risk models were further used to investigate the potential factors associated with CV death.

Results

For patients with cancer at all sites, the P_CV increased from 22.8% in the 5th year after diagnosis to 31.0% in the 10th year and 35.7% in the 20th year, while the P_CA decreased from 57.7% in the 5th year after diagnosis to 41.2 and 29.9% in the 10th year and 20th year, respectively. The P_CV outweighed the P_CA (34.6% vs. 34.1%) since the 15th year for patients with cancer at all sites, as early as the 9th year for patients with colorectal cancer (37.5% vs. 33.2%) and as late as the 22nd year for patients with breast cancer (33.5% vs. 30.6%). The CMR_CV outweighed the CMR_CA since the 25th year from diagnosis. Multivariate competing risk models showed that an increased risk of CV death was independently associated with older age at diagnosis [hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals [HR (95%CI)] of 43.39 (21.33, 88.28) for ≥ 80 vs. ≤ 30 years] and local metastasis [1.07 (1.04, 1.10)] and a decreased risk among women [0.82 (0.76, 0.88)], surgery [0.90 (0.87, 0.94)], and chemotherapy [0.85 (0.81, 0.90)] among patients with cancer who survived for more than 10 years. Further analyses of patients with cancer who survived for more than 20 years and sensitivity analyses by cancer at all sites showed similar results.

Conclusion

CV death gradually outweighs cancer death as survival time increases for most patients with cancer. Both the cardio-oncologist and cardio-oncology care should be involved to reduce CV deaths in long-term cancer survivors.

Cause of death during upper tract urothelial carcinoma survivorship: A contemporary, population-based analysis

Background

Very few studies have been published on the causes of death of upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). We sought to explore the mortality patterns of contemporary UTUC survivors.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients with upper urinary tract carcinoma from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2000 and 2015). We used standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) to compare death rates among patients with UTUC in the general population and excess absolute risks (EARs) to quantify the disease-specific death burden.

Results

A total of 10,179 patients with UTUC, including 7,133 who died, were included in our study. In total, 302 (17.17%) patients with the localized disease died of UTUC; however, patients who died from other causes were 4.8 times more likely to die from UTUC (n = 1,457 [82.83%]). Cardiovascular disease was the most common non-cancer cause of death (n = 393 [22.34% of all deaths]); SMR, 1.22; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.1–1.35; EAR, 35.96). A total of 4,046 (69.99%) patients with regional stage died within their follow-up, 1,413 (34.92%) of whom died from UTUC and 1,082 (26.74%) of whom died from non-cancer causes. UTUC was the main cause of death (SMR, 242.48; 95% CI, 230–255.47; EAR, 542.47), followed by non-tumor causes (SMR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.11–1.25; EAR, 63.74). Most patients (94.94%) with distant stage died within 3 years of initial diagnosis. Although UTUC was the leading cause of death (n = 721 [54.29%]), these patients also had a higher risk of death from non-cancer than the general population (SMR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.67–2.56; EAR, 288.26).

Conclusions

Non-UTUC deaths accounted for 82.48% of UTUC survivors among those with localized disease. Patients with regional/distant stages were most likely to die of UTUC; however, there is an increased risk of dying from non-cancer causes that cannot be ignored. These data provide the latest and most comprehensive assessment of the causes of death in patients with UTUC.

Cause of Death During Renal Cell Carcinoma Survivorship: A Contemporary, Population-Based Analysis

Background

As the survival rates of patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) continue to increase, noncancer causes of death cannot be ignored. The cause-specific mortality in patients with RCC is not well understood.

Objective

Our study aimed to explore the mortality patterns of contemporary RCC survivors.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study involving patients with RCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We used standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) to compare the death rates in patients with RCC with those in the general population.

Results

A total of 106,118 patients with RCC, including 39,630 who died (27%), were included in our study. Overall, compared with the general US population, noncancer SMRs were increased 1.25-fold (95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.22 to 1.27; observed, 11,235), 1.19-fold (95% CI, 1.14 to 1.24; observed, 2,014), and 2.24-fold (95% CI, 2.11 to 2.38; observed, 1,110) for stage I/II, III, and IV RCC, respectively. The proportion of noncancer causes of death increased with the extension of survival time. A total of 4,273 men with stage I/II disease (23.13%) died of RCC; however, patients who died from other causes were 3.2 times more likely to die from RCC (n = 14,203 [76.87%]). Heart disease was the most common noncancer cause of death (n = 3,718 [20.12%]; SMR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.19–1.27). In patients with stage III disease, 3,912 (25.98%) died from RCC, and 2,014 (13.37%) died from noncancer causes. Most patients (94.99%) with stage IV RCC died within 5 years of initial diagnosis. Although RCC was the leading cause of death (n = 12,310 [84.65%]), patients with stage IV RCC also had a higher risk of noncancer death than the general population (2.24; 95% CI, 2.11–2.38).

Conclusions

Non-RCC death causes account for more than 3/4 of RCC survivors among patients with stage I/II disease. Patients with stage IV are most likely to die of RCC; however, there is an increased risk of dying from septicemia, and suicide cannot be ignored. These data provide the latest and most comprehensive assessment of the causes of death in patients with RCC.

Cause of Death in Patients in Radiation Oncology

Background

The accurate attribution of death in oncologic patients is a difficult task. The patient's death is often attributed to his or her underlying cancer and therefore judged as cancer-related. We hypothesized that even though our patient's cancers were either advanced or metastatic, not all patients had died simply because of their cancer.

Methods

A total of 105 patients were included in this retrospective analysis. Patient data were collected from digital and paper-based records. Cause of death was assessed from death certificate and compared to the medical autopsy reports. Discrepancies between premortem and postmortem diagnoses were classified as class I and II discrepancies.

Results

Of 105 patients included, autopsy consent was obtained in 56 cases (53%). Among them, 32 of 56 were palliatively sedated, and 42/56 patients died cancer-related as confirmed by autopsy. The most common cause of death by autopsy report was multiorgan failure followed by a combination of tumor and infection, predominantly lung cancer with pneumonia. Here, 21/56 cases (37%) showed major missed diagnoses: seven cases showed class I, 10 class II, and both discrepancies. The most commonly missed diagnoses in both categories were infections, again mainly pneumonia.

Conclusions

Cancer was the leading cause of death in our study population. A quarter of the patients, however, did not die due to their advanced or metastatic cancers but of potentially curable causes. We therefore conclude that it is important to consider competing causes of death when treating palliative cancer patients. In a palliative setting, the treatment of a potentially curable complication should be discussed with the patients and their families in a shared decision-making process. From our experience, many patients will decline treatment or even further diagnostics when given the option of best supportive care.