Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Assessment of the Impacts of Landscape Complexity and Climate on Dispersion, Detectability and Fate of Incipient Medfly Populations

Evaluating a novel core-and-perimeter delimiting trapping survey design for insects. II. Simulations and case studies

We compared 2 delimitation trapping designs via mark-release-recapture of Ceratitis capitata Weidemann (Medfly) [Tephritidae: Diptera]: a fully trapped grid versus a novel, "core-and-perimeter" design. Results showed some disadvantages of fully trapped and supported the core-and-perimeter concept, but grids were too small to address all questions. Here we used computer models to more fully compare the designs. We employed random walk dispersal using parameters from recent results for another Dipteran. Parameter sensitivity was highest for maximum step distance (DDay), but structural sensitivity was more affected by dispersal probability (PDisp) and correlated movement (θMax). We incorporated trapping, modeling capture probabilities based on the hyperbolic secant function. We quantified the likelihood of inner traps to "intercept" insects along their paths and implemented that process in all trapping models. Validation against 3 independent datasets was successful using PDisp of 0.4 or 0.3, and θMax = 180°, based on dispersal densities and proportion of flies captured. Under the validated dispersal model, Medflies never traveled more than 2.8 km in 30 d. A trapping version gave zero perimeter captures with the core-and-perimeter design, but core area captures in 40% of iterations for single flies. The fully trapped grid captured flies in 79% of iterations but only 12% of traps had captures, indicating suboptimal efficiency. Finally, we compared fully trapped and core-and-perimeter trapping costs using published plans for Medfly and four other species. The costs of the core-and-perimeter designs were 49% to 77% lower at standard sizes but 69% to 88% lower with optimal (shorter) radii.

Animal-robot interaction induces local enhancement in the Mediterranean fruit flyCeratitis capitataWiedemann

Animal-robot interaction (ARI) is an emerging field that uses biomimetic robots to replicate biological cues, enabling controlled studies of animal behavior. This study investigates the potential for ARI systems to induce local enhancement (e.g. where animals are attracted to areas based on the presence or actions of conspecifics) in the Mediterranean fruit fly,Ceratitis capitata(C. capitata), a major agricultural pest. We developed biomimetic agents that mimicC. capitatain morphology and color, to explore their ability to trigger local enhancement. The study employed three categories of artificial agents: full biomimetic agent (FBA), partial biomimetic agent (PBA) and non-biomimetic agent (NBA) in both motionless and moving states. Flies exposed to motionless FBAs showed a significant preference for areas containing these agents compared to areas with no agents. Similarly, moving FBAs also attracted more flies than stationary agents. Time spent in the release section before making a choice and the overall experiment duration were significantly shorter when conspecifics or moving FBAs were present, indicating thatC. capitatais highly responsive to biomimetic cues, particularly motion. These results suggest that ARI systems can be effective tools for understanding and manipulating local enhancement inC. capitata, offering new opportunities for sustainable pest control in agricultural contexts. Overall, this research demonstrates the potential of ARI as an innovative, sustainable approach to insect population control, with broad applications in both fundamental behavioral research and integrated pest management.

Wind effects on individual male and female Bactrocera jarvisi (Diptera: Tephritidae) tracked using harmonic radar

Wind affects the movement of most volant insects. While the effects of wind on dispersal are relatively well understood at the population level, how wind influences the movement parameters of individual insects in the wild is less clear. Tephritid fruit flies, such as Bactrocera jarvisi, are major horticultural pests worldwide and while most tephritids are nondispersive when host plants are plentiful, records exist for potentially wind-assisted movements up to 200 km. In this study, harmonic radar (HR) was used to track the movements of both male and female lab-reared B. jarvisi in a papaya field. Overall flight directions were found to be correlated with wind direction, as were the subset of between-tree movements, while within-tree movements were not. Furthermore, the effect of wind direction on fly trajectories varied by step-distance but not strongly with wind speed. Mean path distance, step distance, flight direction, turning angle, and flight propensity did not vary by sex. Both male and female movements are well fit by 2-state hidden Markov models further supporting the observation that B. jarvisi move differently within (short steps with random direction) and between (longer more directional steps) trees. Data on flight directionality and step-distances determined in this study provide parameters for models that may help enhance current surveillance, control, and eradication methods, such as optimizing trap placements and pesticide applications, determining release sites for parasitoids, and setting quarantine boundaries after incursions.

Dynamic spatial network simulation accounting for multiple ecological factors provides practical recommendations for biosecurity early detection and rapid response (EDRR) strategies

BACKGROUND

Globally the spread of invasive pests is being facilitated by increased human mobility and climate change. Simulation modelling can help assess biosecurity strategies for early detection and rapid response (EDRR), but has struggled to account for important factors in the invasion process, such as spatial and temporal variability in habitat suitability and connectivity; population dynamics; and multiple dispersal pathways. We developed a novel dynamic spatial network simulation approach based on spatial network theory that enables integration of a wider range of spatio-temporal factors than previous studies, calibrated it against extensive historical trapping data, and applied it to comprehensively analyse the EDRR strategy for Oriental fruit fly (Bactrocera dorsalis; OFF) in northern Australia.

RESULTS

Simulations indicated that the chance of OFF reaching the mainland in the next 20 years could be up to 20% under the current EDRR strategy, depending on how optimistic or pessimistic model assumptions are, and highlighted possible improvements to the EDRR strategy for further consideration. Simulations under optimistic assumptions indicate that transport via wind is most important in OFF reaching the mainland, but under pessimistic assumptions transport via people carrying infected fruit becomes more important.

CONCLUSION

Our new dynamic spatial network simulation approach can account for a wide range of spatio-temporal ecological factors to provide practical real-world recommendations. At a minimum, this approach only requires weather and population data, both of which are available globally from a variety of free and open sources, making it broadly applicable to assessing the EDRR strategies in place for different species in other locations. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Invasion History and Dispersion Dynamics of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly in the Balkan Peninsula

The Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann 1824; Diptera, Tephritidae), is considered one of the most important pests, infesting more than 300 species of fresh fruit and vegetables worldwide. The medfly is an important invasive species, which has spread from the eastern part of sub-Saharan Africa to all of the world's continents in recent centuries. Currently, the medfly is expanding its geographical range to cooler, temperate areas of the world, including northern areas of Mediterranean countries and continental areas of Central Europe. We collected and analysed all the available information, including in historical records, on the phenology of the medfly in the Balkan Peninsula, to map and understand the path of invasion and spread dynamics on the northern Mediterranean coast and in Central Europe. The medfly was first recorded in the Balkan Peninsula in 1915, in the Aegean area on the island of Aigina, followed by a few records on its presence in the Peloponnese in the early 1930s and throughout the Adriatic coastal area in the 1950s; it was first detected on the Croatian coast in 1947. By 2010, the medfly had been detected along the entire Ionian coast, while the first record of its presence on the Balkan coast of the Black Sea was made in 2005. Since 2000 to date, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of medfly detections in the interior of the Balkan Peninsula, including occasional detections in areas with unfavourable climatic conditions for overwintering, which seems to be favourable for reproduction during the summer and lead to significant infestation of late ripening fruits (late summer and autumn). In the last 20 years, the medfly has spread to more northerly areas (43 to 45 degrees latitude) and has been detected at higher altitudes (>200 to 600 m). Along the Balkan Peninsula, the infestation of fruits from 25 host plant species, from 14 genera and 10 plant families, has been reported. Considering the extremely high invasiveness of the medfly and its wide distribution in several Balkan regions with different climatic conditions, we can assume that it is adapting to new climatic conditions and infesting new host plants.

Age and mating status have complex but modest effects on the critical thermal limits of adult Mediterranean fruit flies from geographically divergent populations

The highly invasive Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is currently expanding its geographic distribution into cooler temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. In marginal conditions, the invasion potential of medfly depends in part on innate tolerance to the novel environmental conditions. Physiological tolerances are potentially influenced by interactions among multiple factors, such as organism age or reproductive maturity, sex, and mating status. Furthermore, the relationships between the above factors and tolerances may differ among geographically distinct populations. Here, the effects of age and mating status on thermal tolerance of three geographically distinct medfly populations along a latitudinal gradient ranging from Greece (Crete & Volos) to Croatia (Dubrovnik) were examined. The upper and lower critical thermal limits (scored as loss of neuromuscular function during controlled cooling or heating) of adult males and females (a) at 1-, 6-, 15-, and 35 days old and of (b) both mated and virgin flies were assessed. Results showed that estimates of lower and upper thermal limits (CTmin and CTmax) were both population- and age-dependent. In most age classes tested, CTmin values were lower for the adults obtained from Crete and higher for those from Dubrovnik. CTmax values were lower for the females from Dubrovnik compared to the females from any other population on day one after emergence but not on days 6, 15 and 35. Differences among populations were observed across different age classes both for cold and heat tolerance but mostly in CTmin estimates. Mating status had a little effect on cold and heat tolerance. Complex patterns of thermal limit variation within and among populations suggest a suite of factors determine population-level mortality from thermal extremes under field conditions in medfly. These results contribute towards understanding the invasion dynamics of medfly and its range expansion to northern, more temperate regions of Europe.

Tracking and modeling the movement of Queensland fruit flies, Bactrocera tryoni, using harmonic radar in papaya fields

Determining movement parameters for pest insects such as tephritid fruit flies is critical to developing models which can be used to increase the effectiveness of surveillance and control strategies. In this study, harmonic radar was used to track wild-caught male Queensland fruit flies (Qflies), Bactrocera tryoni, in papaya fields. Experiment 1 continuously tracked single flies which were prodded to induce movement. Qfly movements from this experiment showed greater mean squared displacement than predicted by both a simple random walk (RW) or a correlated random walk (CRW) model, suggesting that movement parameters derived from the entire data set do not adequately describe the movement of individual Qfly at all spatial scales or for all behavioral states. This conclusion is supported by both fractal and hidden Markov model (HMM) analysis. Lower fractal dimensions (straighter movement paths) were observed at larger spatial scales (> 2.5 m) suggesting that Qflies have qualitatively distinct movement at different scales. Further, a two-state HMM fit the observed movement data better than the CRW or RW models. Experiment 2 identified individual landing locations, twice a day, for groups of released Qflies, demonstrating that flies could be tracked over longer periods of time.

Mediterranean fruit fly population phenological patterns are strongly affected by elevation and host presence

The Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) (Ceratitis capitata, Diptera: Tephritidae), is an extremely polyphagous pest that threatens the fruit production and trading industry worldwide. Monitoring C. capitata populations and analysing its dynamics and phenology is considered of outmost importance for designing and implementing sound management approaches. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors regulating the population dynamics of the C. capitata in a coastal and semi-mountainous area. We focused on effects of topography (e.g. elevation), host presence and seasonal patterns of ripening on the phenological patterns considering data collected in 2008. The experimental area is characterized by mixed fruit orchards, and Mediterranean climate with mild winters. Two trap types were used for population monitoring. The female targeted McPhail type and the male targeted Jackson type. Traps were placed in farms located at different elevations and landscape morphology (coastal and semi-mountainous areas). The main crops included citrus, apples, peaches, plums, pears, figs, quinces and apricots. Adult captures were first recorded in May, peaked in mid-summer and mid-autumn and almost ceased at the end of the season (January 2008). Captures in the coastal areas preceded that of highlands by 15 days. Most of the adults detected during the fruit ripening of late stone fruit cultivars (first peak) and citrus (second peak). The probability of capturing the first adults preceded almost three weeks the peak of adult captures either considering the elevation or host focus analyses. The results provide valuable information on the seasonal population trend of C. capitata in mixed fruit Mediterranean orchards and can support the set-up of IPM systems in areas with various landscapes and different hosts throughout the fruit growing season.

Fruit Flies: Challenges and Opportunities to Stem the Tide of Global Invasions

Global trade in fresh fruit and vegetables, intensification of human mobility, and climate change facilitate fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) invasions. Life-history traits, environmental stress response, dispersal stress, and novel genetic admixtures contribute to their establishment and spread. Tephritids are among the most frequently intercepted taxa at ports of entry. In some countries, supported by the rules-based trade framework, a remarkable amount of biosecurity effort is being arrayed against the range expansion of tephritids. Despite this effort, fruit flies continue to arrive in new jurisdictions, sometimes triggering expensive eradication responses. Surprisingly, scant attention has been paid to biosecurity in the recent discourse about new multilateral trade agreements. Much of the available literature on managing tephritid invasions is focused on a limited number of charismatic (historically high-profile) species, and the generality of many patterns remains speculative.

Radio Telemetry and Harmonic Radar Tracking of the Spotted Lanternfly, Lycorma delicatula (White) (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae)

Lycorma delicatula (White) (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae), spotted lanternfly (SLF), is an invasive pest that feeds and oviposits on numerous woody and herbaceous plants important to agricultural, forest, ornamental, and nursery industries. Describing and understanding SLF movements is key to implementing surveillance and control strategies for this pest and projecting population spread. We used radio telemetry (RT) and harmonic radar (HR) to track the movements of individual SLF at field sites in eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey. SLF equipped with HR or RT tags were tracked in 2019 and 2020 from adult emergence until oviposition time, and their movements are described. Although the bulkier RT tags disproportionately affected the distance traveled by males, which are smaller than females, both males and females were more likely to be lost due to signal attenuation when affixed with the lighter-weight HR tags. Females were tracked moving longer distances than males, with maximum distances of 434 m by a single female and 57 m by a single male. A significant positive relationship was found between their height in trees and the distance of subsequent movement. Adult SLF were found in trees predominantly at heights between 6-9 m high. For the fraction of SLF found at eye level, males, but not females, significantly moved above eye level in the weeks prior to mating, likely resulting in the observed sex ratio shift that defines the Early-2 stage. During mating time, tracked SLF were significantly higher than 8 m and oriented to trees where tight aggregations of SLF were present. This orientation towards tight aggregations started when mating began and peaked in the following 2.5 weeks for males in Late-1 and the beginning of Late-2 (after oviposition began), whereas females started this orientation behavior a half-week after males, and this activity peaked for two weeks. Male and female SLF adults exhibited slight differences in host preference, and strong preferences for wild grape, black walnut, sweet birch, and tree-of-heaven were observed. The HR-tagged nymphs moved up to 27.6 m over a five-day period in a cornfield. Nitinol wire HR tags performed better than Wollaston process or tungsten wire tags. SLF movement parameters in the field are described.

Harmonic radar tracking of individual melon flies, Zeugodacus cucurbitae, in Hawaii: Determining movement parameters in cage and field settings

Tephritid fruit flies, such as the melon fly, Zeugodacus cucurbitae, are major horticultural pests worldwide and pose invasion risks due primarily to international trade. Determining movement parameters for fruit flies is critical to effective surveillance and control strategies, from setting quarantine boundaries after incursions to development of agent-based models for management. While mark-release-recapture, flight mills, and visual observations have been used to study tephritid movement, none of these techniques give a full picture of fruit fly movement in nature. Tracking tagged flies offers an alternative method which has the potential to observe individual fly movements in the field, mirroring studies conducted by ecologists on larger animals. In this study, harmonic radar (HR) tags were fabricated using superelastic nitinol wire which is light (tags weighed less than 1 mg), flexible, and does not tangle. Flight tests with wild melon flies showed no obvious adverse effects of HR tag attachment. Subsequent experiments successfully tracked HR tagged flies in large field cages, a papaya field, and open parkland. Unexpectedly, a majority of tagged flies showed strong flight directional biases with these biases varying between flies, similar to what has been observed in the migratory butterfly Pieris brassicae. In field cage experiments, 30 of the 36 flies observed (83%) showed directionally biased flights while similar biases were observed in roughly half the flies tracked in a papaya field. Turning angles from both cage and field experiments were non-random and indicate a strong bias toward continued “forward” movement. At least some of the observed direction bias can be explained by wind direction with a correlation observed between collective melon fly flight directions in field cage, papaya field, and open field experiments. However, individual mean flight directions coincided with the observed wind direction for only 9 out of the 25 flies in the cage experiment and half of the flies in the papaya field, suggesting wind is unlikely to be the only factor affecting flight direction. Individual flight distances (meters per flight) differed between the field cage, papaya field, and open field experiments with longer mean step-distances observed in the open field. Data on flight directionality and step-distances determined in this study might assist in the development of more effective control and better parametrize models of pest tephritid fruit fly movement.

Jack, master or both? The invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis performs better than a native coccinellid despite divergent trait plasticity

The plasticity of performance traits can promote the success of biological invasions and therefore, precisely estimating trait reaction norms can help to predict the establishment and persistence of introduced species in novel habitats. Most studies focus only on a reduced set of traits and rarely include trait variability that may be vital to predicting establishment success. Here, using a split-brood full-sib design, we acclimated the globally invasive ladybird Harmonia axyridis and a native co-occurring and competing species Cheilomenes lunata to cold, medium and warm temperature regimes, and measured critical thermal limits, life-history traits, and starvation resistance. We used the conceptual framework of “Jack, Master or both” to test predictions regarding performance differences of these two species. The native C. lunata had a higher thermal plasticity of starvation resistance and a higher upper thermal tolerance than H. axyridis. By contrast, H. axyridis had a higher performance than C. lunata for preoviposition period, fecundity and adult emergence from pupae. We combined trait responses, transport duration and propagule pressure to predict the size of the populations established in a novel site following cold, medium and warm scenarios. Although C. lunata initially had a higher performance than the invasive species during transport, more individuals of H. axyridis survived in all simulated environments due to the combined life-history responses, and in particular, higher fecundity. Despite an increased starvation mortality in the warm scenario, given a sufficient propagule size, H. axyridis successfully established. This study underscores how the combination and plasticity of multiple performance traits can strongly influence establishment potential of species introduced into novel environments.

Non-linear physiological responses to climate change: the case of Ceratitis capitata distribution and abundance in Europe

Understanding how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of crop pests is fundamental for the development and the implementation of pest management strategies. Here we present and apply a modelling framework assessing the non-linear physiological responses of the life-history strategies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, Wiedemann) to temperature. The model is used to explore how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of this pest in Europe. We estimated the change in the distribution, abundance and activity of this species under current (year 2020) and future (years 2030 and 2050) climatic scenarios. The effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance and activity of C. capitata are heterogeneous both in time and in space. A northward expansion of the species, an increase in the altitudinal limit marking the presence of the species, and an overall increase in population abundance is expected in areas that might become more suitable under a changing climate. On the contrary, stable or reduced population abundances can be expected in areas where climate change leads to equally suitable or less suitable conditions. This heterogeneity reflects the contribution of both spatial variability in the predicted climatic patterns and non-linearity in the responses of the species’ life-history strategies to temperature.